No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for December 19th, 2008

New NRE poll – Which of the Big Three (if any) will be in essentially its pre-12/2008 form come 12/2018?

by @ 16:28. Tags:
Filed under Business, NRE Polls.

Shoebox asked the question. While I can’t officially condone gambling (at least if you use Hot Rod Blago as your bookie), I can officially condone an NRE poll. You can take up to 3, but I will wipe out any multiple answers that include “None of them”.

Which of the Big Three (if any) will be in essentially its pre-12/2008 form come 12/2018?

Up to 3 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • None of them (43%, 36 Vote(s))
  • Ford (37%, 31 Vote(s))
  • General Motors (15%, 13 Vote(s))
  • Chrysler (5%, 4 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 75

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“It Is Finished”

by @ 8:31. Tags:
Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

With that, he bowed his head and gave up his spirit.   John 19:30

And so it is with George Bush.  

Several sources are reporting that President Bush has decided upon a bailout package for the auto industry.   The package is said to be as much as $17.4B pending Congress’ approval of the second tranche of TARP funds.

According to the Politico, the loan provisions look very much like the package defeated in Congress last week but, includes the “Corker amendments,” although as part of the “non binding” parts of the loan.   As Non binding, the Corker amendment terms will be suggested targets but not absolute requirements.  

I’m on record as supporting the government providing debtor in possession financing to support an “orderly” bankruptcy.   It sounded recently as if Bush was headed down that path.   By having an “orderly bankruptcy,” the companies would get the fund they need to operate while they were put into bankruptcy to do the gloves off negotiation required to get all parties to an agreement that might allow for survival of at least one of the auto makers.

With the announced plan, Bush has let the UAW off the hook in providing any meaningful assistance to the health of the industry.   Rather than make requirements of the union issues, he included them as “targets.”   These “targets” will get thrown by the wayside the minute that Democrats are faced with the choice of a hostile union or turning the other cheek and making the auto industry nothing more than a vassal of the government.

Revisions/extensions (9:38 am 12/19/2008 – steveegg) – Here’s the video of Bush giving up the ghost (from MSNBC via Allahpundit)

That under-the-bus moment for the Corker amendment suggestion will come at 4:05 pm EST 1/20/2009.

Only Nixon could go to Red China, and only Bush could put the final nail in the coffin of free markets (tombstone shamelessly borrowed from Michelle Malkin)…

R&E part 2 (4:02 pm 12/19/2008 – steveegg) – Lawhawk found the terms of the loans for both Chrysler and GM. The terms of the 3-year loans are as bad as I feared:

– All of the anti-management requirements in the House bill are there.
– The anti-UAW provisions are but “targets” that the Obama administration will judge. Any takers on the equally-vague “fuel efficiency”, “advanced technology vehicles” and “competitive product mix” targets being much more vigorously enforced for the benefit of the Gorebal “Warming” acolytes than the calls for the end of the Jobs Bank or reduction in salaries/benefits to the levels paid by the Japanese Big Three?
– The interest is based on the 3-month LIBOR plus 300 basis points (or a minimum of 5.00%), which changes to the 3-month LIBOR plus 800 basis points (or a minimum of 10.00%) if the loan changes to a Debtor-In-Possession loan. Anybody else find it curious that the Treasury isn’t using the Fed rates?
-The Treasury Department will be, in lieu of taking an ownership stake in Chrysler, tacking on an additional 6.67% in its loans to Chrysler, or $266.8 million (for a grand total of $4,266,800,000).
– The Treasury Department (read, taxpayers) will be taking 20% of the loan GM’s market capitalization (as the “warrant limit” will hit first) in the form of perpetual-term warrants for common shares the Treasury promises not to exercise its right to vote except in cases of a “termination event” or bankruptcy. At last check, the market capitialization of GM was $2.74 billion, which would make that about $548 million.
– Since that “warrant limit” is lower than what the Treasury wants for either the $9.4 billion that is guaranteed to go out the door before Bush leaves or the $13.4 billion that is, in part, held hostage by Congress, the Treasury will be taking an additional amount in loans in a method similar to Chrysler.
– In order for GM to lose the warrants after it pays back the loans, they have to buy back the warrants at the market price. In short, we’re going to be owning GM for a long time.

Oak Creek plowing – 12/19/2008 – much better

by @ 8:14. Filed under Politics - Oak Creek, Weather.

I don’t know if was me that got results, but for this snow-bomb, Oak Creek got out there well before 5 am. In fact, they were working on my subdivision at 4 am.

See how much easier it is when the 4-hour prohibition on parking on the streets is taken advantage of, and 11 hours’ worth of packed snow isn’t being fought? It makes even a lot of snow (9 inches and counting) easier to handle.

Revisions/extensions (8:20 am 12/19/2008) – Don’t say I never give the Soviets any props. My blogfather used to have this propaganda piece up at Spotted Horse when the White Death threatened us…

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Everyone to the fight with the Blizzard!

R&E part 2 (4:05 pm 12/19/2008) – I can see pavement! MUCH better than last time.

A Rose By Any Other Name…

by @ 5:38. Filed under Economy.

It’s not only US Auto companies that are looking for a bail out.

According to this article in the UK Independent, Britain is looking to do a bail out for Jaguar.   It looks like the automaker PR playbook has been sent to the UK press:

The luxury car firm employs 15,000 workers in the West Midlands and a further 60,000 other jobs in the region rely indirectly on the firm.

Like the US government, the British government is looking to provide loans to help the auto industry weather the dramatic downturn of vehicle purchases.   In Britain’s case, they are looking to loan the equivalent of $1.5B, to Jaguar’s Indian owner Tata.

Like the US’s Chrysler, Jaguar was recently acquired.   Unlike Chrysler, Jaguar was acquired by a company who has experience in the automotive industry.   In both cases, the fact that they were recently acquired would almost be enough reason to say “caveat emptor” and let them fend for themselves.

Like the situation in the US, the British politicians are trying to weigh the political  implications  of a bailout:

Ministers are also conscious of several marginal parliamentary seats in the West Midlands. Seven constituencies – including Redditch, held by the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith – would fall to the Conservatives with a swing of 5 per cent. Another three would be captured by David Cameron if the swing is 10 per cent.

Apparently, economic scale doesn’t work just in global sales.   The Jaguar deal at $1.5B amounts to $100,000 for each direct job at Jaguar.   In the US, with a price tag of $15B being discussed and approximately 240,000 direct auto jobs, we benefit from the rollback price buying an industry for just $65,000 per direct job.  

Of course,  our  rollback  number could change dramatically.   If, as some have estimated, the total US bailout comes to $30B, we now pay $130,000 per direct job.  

 Unlike the US industry, which is not only suffering negative cash flow but with the exception of Ford in 2005, has not seen any profits for the past several years, Jaguar has been profitable:

Jaguar has told ministers it is a healthy and viable business – making a £327m profit last year and a £310m profit in the first half of 2008 – but has asked for help guaranteeing “short-term liquidity” because the major banks are reluctant to lend cash during the downturn.

A bailout by any other name still smells rotten.   However, while $1.5B is a lot of money, Jaguar has an existing business plan that works, Jaguar isn’t facing the equivalent of a multiple organ transplant and hoping to accomplish it with a simple appendectomy.   With a straight face,  Jaguar and the British government,  can actually argue that they aren’t providing a bailout but ,rather a loan to allow an otherwise healthy and profitable company, the ability to weather extraordinary times.  

If only we were so lucky!

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