No Runny Eggs

Yesterday, as White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was questioned about polls showing President Obama continuing to drop in popularity, Gibbs responded:

I’m sure a 6-year-old with a crayon could do something not unlike that. I don’t put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is the daily Gallup trend.

In his response and follow up comments, Gibbs seems to suggest not only that a six year old is unable to control their crayons but also that anyone who puts any stock in polls is deemed to have the mental ability of a six year old.

First, having lived through the stages of dexterity improvement as it relates to color crayon control, I can attest that many six year olds are extremely capable of “staying within the lines” and even coloring  a reasonably straight line, when asked.

Second, while I would agree with Mr. Gibbs that any one poll may not accurately reflect the mood of the polled, multiple polls will certainly show a direction and a significance of the concern level.  Let’s look at an example.

Support for Placebocare is claimed by Mr. Gibbs, to have public support.  To be sure, there was a time when the public did support Placebocare.  However, as time has gone on, and the public finds out how damaging Placebocare will be to the economy, the quality of health care and their pocketbooks, public support has dropped to levels that should require a mercy killing.

Just today, three new polls came out showing a low and deteriorating support level for Placebocare:

QUINNIPIAC: “Voters Disapprove 52 – 38 Percent Of The Health Care Reform Proposal Under Consideration In Congress, And They Disapprove 56 – 38 Percent Of President Obama’s Handling Of Health Care, down from 53 – 41 percent in a November 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.” (“Obama Approval Falls To New Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds,” Quinnipiac University, 12/9/09)

BLOOMBERG: “The poll finds significant opposition to using Medicarefor savings; 78 percent say they would oppose any cuts to the program.” (“Obama’s War Plan Gains Amid Doubts On Domestic Policy,” Bloomberg, 12/9/09)

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: “Support For Obama On Health Care Has Hit Another New Low With Just 39% Of Voters Now Expressing Approval Of His Health Care Plans And 52% Opposed.” (“Obama’s December Standing,” Public Policy Polling, 12/9/09)

It is clear that there is no majority or even plurality of support for Placebocare.  In fact, when you start asking people about specific provisions as Bloomberg did, support becomes almost nearly non existent.

If believing that Placebocare does not have the American public’s support makes me a six year old, what does that make someone who believes it does have support, like Mr. Gibbs?

Yes, I know, it’s a pretty trite title.  That said, many of you would probably reply with “yes, but it fits most of your writing!”  OK, now that you’ve had your moment of sarcasm, can we get down to business?

The Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell put out a press release denigrating the Democrat’s efforts to make a bad bill, worse.  As part of his statement, McConnell accused the Democrats of both a lack of principle and laziness by saying:

‘So what’s becoming abundantly clear is that the Majority will make any deal, agree to any terms, sign any dotted line that brings them closer to final passage of this terrible bill. They are, for lack of a better term, winging it on one of the most consequential pieces of domestic legislation in memory’

“Winging it” are they?  I don’t think so!  Whether it is Reid or someone else, the Democrats seem to know exactly what they are doing. 

The Senate started with a plan that was sure to split the Democrat caucus.  As Steve has on his poll, there were at least 3 issues capable of ensuring that Placebocare didn’t exit the Senate; abortion funding, public option and the cost.  We’ve already seen in the House version how the Democrats will “eliminate” abortion funding from the bill while retaining it via some smoke and mirrors.  We also know that for all the discussion of concern over cost, there is no Democrat that will stand in the way of a “historic” legislation due to a measly few trillion dollars.  That leaves the public option as the real divider.

Last night and this morning, we are hearing that the Democrats are finding a solution to the public option dilemma.  Articles like this one at Politico.com, are suggesting that a public option that is run privately but at the government’s direction, may be the solution that lets the Democrat spectrum be equally offended but provides a solution that is equally accepted.

I won’t go into the weak mindedness of this non public, public option other than to say; “Isn’t this just more of the same?”  Aren’t all plans today basically privately implemented but publicly mandated?

What I will say about the non public, public option is that not only might this get the Democrats to solidify, there are also signs that this kind of a solution may get the one Republican vote they need to close debate and move to a final vote.  In fact, the non public, public option is the brain child of Senator Olympia Snowe.  Yes, that’s right, the same Olympia Snowe who has a problem with a public option but has no problem with funding abortion services.  See how this is coming together?

It’s becoming clearer to me that rather than “winging it,” that while the outcome may be imperfect from their viewpoint, Democrats are close to finding a path that will allow them to attain their goal, control of the health care industry.  On the other hand, Mitch McConnell has yet to offer anything other than verbal tripe in the way of opposition.  Not once has McConnell demanded a unanimous consent on any amendment, nor has he required the reading of the bill.  Neither of these efforts would ultimately cause the bill’s failure if the Democrats are committed to unity for passage.  However, either or both of these efforts would delay the passage of any bill.  If there’s one hope for killing this bill it is kept in forcing the Democrat Senators to face their constituents another time before the vote.  If the polls are correct, a number of them will hear clearly, that they had better not vote for Placebocare, at least if they value their cushy jobs.

So, while Mitch McConnell accuses the Democrats of ethical flexiblity and “winging it” it would seem that at this point, he is the one operating without a plan and in fact, “winging it!”  Pot meet kettle!

I pointed out to you here that while the advertised cost of the first ten years of the House Placebocare bill was $829, the real cost, if fully implemented, was over $1.3 Trillion, 57% more than claimed.  The reason for this dramatic difference is that while the House plan has taxes and other revenue sources beginning almost immediately, the expenses, or implementation of the benefits, did start for nearly 4 years.

The Senate bill is no better than the House. It too begins to generate revenue long before it hits the full stride of expenses. As a result, the Senate bill claims it will cost around $1 Trillion. We all know that this number is false. What we don’t know is how big the real number is. Well, it appears that the Democrats might.

In comments today, Democrat Senator Max Baucus from Montana said:

“Just for a second — health care reform, whether you use a ten-year number or when you start in 2010 or start in 2014, wherever you start at, so it is still either $1 trillion or it’s $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start…”

What?  “It’s either $1 Trillion or $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start?” 

Senator Baucus is willing to concede that the Senate version of Placebocare could have a swing in cost of $1.5 Trillion, 150% of the advertised price, “depending on where you start.”  Baucus treats $1.5 Trillion dollars as if it’s some irrelevant amount.  He treats it as I would treat a dime in my checkbook balancing; as a rounding error!

If Senator Baucus is right and “It’s either $1 Trillion or $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start,” might I suggest that we start really, really early?  I’d suggest we start where the price tag is still ZERO!