No Runny Eggs

(H/Ts – Mary Katharine Ham, Matt Lewis, Amanda Carpenter and Professor Stephen Bainbridge)

Bob Novak tossed former Ohio congressman/former Bush OMB director/former Bush special trade repesentative Rob Portman’s name out there, while RNC deputy chair Frank Donatelli floated former HP CEO/Team McCain economic advisor Carly Fiorina’s name.

First, Portman. He’s moderately-conservative (89 ACU rating in his time in the House), was part of the House leadership (not necessarily a positive in my book), and a tax-(rate-)cutter. The bad news is he is rather tied to the Bush administration, not only as a member of his administration, but as a member of Congress (thanks, fellow FReepers). Moreover, he’s been at times rather accomodating to the Democrats, at least according to the archived Columbus Dispatch article.

Next, Fiorina. She was once the darling of the business media, but as the Professor notes, she wasn’t exactly successful at HP; indeed, she was fired by the board. She does have the advantage of being a member of a key Democratic demographic that may well be “disillusioned” by the results of their nomination process, and she also is a blank slate on non-economic issues (both a blessing and a curse, depending on how the slate gets filled).

Given the comments in both Matt’s and Amanda’s posts, I may as well collate a couple of earlier thoughts on why being John McCain’s VP nominee is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward. I’ve previously noted that, since 1956, the Republicans have gone to the next person in line. In order, that would be sitting President, sitting Vice President, second in the previous contested Presidential primary, an ex-Vice President, and family member. That is a pretty powerful argument to be the Vice Presidential nominee if McCain were to win in November.

Conversely, there is the fate of a Vice Presidential nominee on a losing ticket. I’ve also noted that only 4 times since the 12th Amendment separated the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections did a failed Vice Presidential candidate become a Presidential candidate. The last two who did so, and the only two in the “modern” era (post-22nd Amendment), had other extenuating circumstances. Walter Mondale was previously Vice President, and thus fell into the less-rigid Democratic version of the “next in line” scheme. Bob Dole had to wait until the two people in front of him each had their turn as the Presidential nominee, and then work to earn his own place in the Republican “next in line” scheme.