No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for November 3rd, 2010

The Morning After – Wisconsin Edition

by @ 9:38. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Shoebox already handled the national look (well, except for the gratiutous cheap helmet-to-helmet shot on Packer fans; after all, we know Viking fans are the kings of Monday Morning Quarterbacking), so I’ll handle the Wisconsin look (mental note; figure out which one of us will handle the almost-equally-shocking Minnesota outcomes).

Governor’s race – In the end, we saw what happens when a Milwaukee Democrat who didn’t really want to run meets a surburban and outstate Wisconsin seriously soured on both Democrats and unserious candidates. Tom Barrett lost by 5.70 points despite carrying Milwaukee and Dane Counties by margins that, in a normal year, would have assured a win.

U.S. Senate race – I honestly don’t see how Russ Feingold could be bragging about running for “something” in 2012 after he barely did better than the aforementioned reluctant Milwaukee-area candidate, losing to Ron Johnson by 4.82 points. In previous elections, Feingold had significantly-better margins than the Democrat on the top of the ticket (2 points better than Bill Clinton for President in 1992, 23 points better than Ed Garvey for governor in 1998, 11 points better than John Kerry for President in 2004).

I guess running as a liberal Democrat and shedding one’s “nice guy” image isn’t exactly a winning strategy. Bonus item; it also appears that one of those campaign promises that was on Feingold’s garage back in 1992 will prove to be broken by a large margin for the entire cycle – starting about mid-year, out-of-state money made up the vast majority of Feingold’s warchest.

U.S. House races – If you told me one year ago that the 7th Congressional District, which was represented by Dave Obey for longer than I’ve been alive and that, on average, votes for Democrats by double-digit margins, would elect a Republican to that seat, even if it were open, by almost 7 1/2 points, I would have declared you insane. However, that is exactly what Sean Duffy did to Julie Lassa.

Over in the 8th Congressional District, history caught up with Steve Kagen. No Democrat had held that seat for three consecutive terms, and Reid Ribble did not disappoint with a double-digit win.

Ron Kind barely hung onto his 3rd Congressional seat. For much of the night, Dan Kapanke held a slim lead, but then the university vote came in.

State Senate – How bad a night was it for Senate Democrats? They lost their leader (Russ Decker), who was told to defend his Senate seat rather than chase his decades-long dream of being called 7th-District Congressman, a second potential successor to Obey who likewise was ordered to hang onto his Senate seat (Pat Kreitlow), the Road-Builders candidate who was allowed to just keep pressing the “oppose” button when it came time to vote on the FY2010-FY2011 budget and its components without offering any ideas of his own (Jim Sullivan), and WEAC’s candidate who, unlike Sullivan, was proud to raise taxes, spending, and structural deficits this past time around (John Lehman).

Unfortunately, I will be saddled with Chris “Sticky Fingers” Larson as my state senator (at least until redistricting), as the East Side/UWM part of the gerrymandered district won out.

State Assembly – Unlike Nancy Pelosi, who will be guaranteed to lose her U.S. House speaker’s gavel come January, Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan will also be losing his office in the Capitol. A heap of his fellow Democrats will be joining him in moving out, as there are fewer Democrats in the Assembly (38) than I ever remember coming out of an election.

Bonus item – Bob Ziegelbauer, who easily survived the Manitowoc version of Dem Party Purification, complete with an AFSCME Republicrat to try and squeeze him from both sides, will reportedly be caucusing with the Republicans.

Attorney General – No, it wasn’t a fluke that J.B. Van Hollen was the only major statewide/Congressional Repubican candidate in the entire country to pick up a Democrat-held seat in 2006.

Minor constitutional offices – What the tide swept into the state treasurer’s office in 2006, the tide swept right back out in 2010. Meanwhile, the last of the La Folettes managed to hang onto the most-worthless constitutional office in Wisconsin (secretary of state) over the third Wisconsinite of African descent to attempt to win a statewide election (all unsuccessfully).

Train transit – Just days after Jim Doyle added another $810 million to the state’s structural deficit by committing the state to spend all $810 million of the federal money for the Milwaukee-to-Madison Lobbyist HO(-scale) Half-Fast Train, voters in Racine County, various Kenosha County locales, and various Dane County locales rejected the idea of a tax hike for commuter rail. Those in southeast Wisconsin rejected it by over 5-1 margins.

The Morning After

by @ 7:30. Filed under Politics - National.

I wasn’t able to stay up for all of the fun last night. East coast living isn’t very conducive to following west coast politics.

Going into the elections I was touting 60+ House seats and a Senate that would be 51/49 but unsure of which party would have 51. It looks like my House prediction will hold but my Senate prediction will fall 1 or 2 seats short. All in all, not a bad night.

While the euphoria of the night is still hanging on me I think it’s worth jotting down a few thoughts about what we learned last night.

  • I don’t have the hard data but it struck me that there were numerous House Democrats turned out last night who voted against health care before they voted for it.  I don’t think there is any doubt that part of the election results was a repudiation of the Obamacare bill and the egotistical hubris that Congress showed in ignoring their constituents and passing it despite overwhelming public opposition
  • Good, conservative candidates can win – OK, admittedly Rubio was easy (not that he had it easy) because he was a nearly perfect candidate who ran a nearly perfect campaign.  However, Rand Paul certainly wasn’t that.  Paul had the family name to get beyond and also his own fumbles i.e. saying he would eliminate farm subsidies for large corporations and then naming large, small farmer owned cooperatives as examples.  I don’t think this is a one time event.  I hope the Republican establishment had their eyes opened a bit and cast their net further than the “good ol’ boys club” they fish from for candidates.
  • On the flip side, we’ve also learned that flawed candidates are flawed candidates.  If there was ever a Senator more despised by his constituents, I can’t think of it.  Harry Reid was ripe for being picked off.  Harry Reid should have been picked off.  Except for the flawed candidate in Sharron Angle, Harry Reid might have picked off.  Am I arguing that Angle shouldn’t have run?  No, that’s Monday morning quarterbacking and I’ll leave that to you Packers folks who can’t get past the whole Favre thing :).  No, what I’m suggesting is that with the results of this election, the Tea Party has established some legitimate, political credibility.  Like all newbies, the Tea Party needs to learn from their actions and improve.  With their success, they should have a much better time of attracting better, stronger, conservative candidates.  The Tea Party needs to improve on their candidate selection and they will. O’Donnell was also a flawed candidate.
  • While there is a growing portion of the nation that is understanding the Country’s economic reality, there is still a large portion that doesn’t.  Long time Dems were turned out in House seat after House seat.  Names like Skelton and Oberstar, fixtures in the House, will not have thier cushy jobs come January.  On the other hand, California, what the hell?  California reelects a failed Governor and a failed leftist Senator. I think it’s time for the big quake that separates California from the rest of us. California and its government unions, will be a drain on the rest of the country for decades to come.
  • Incumbency is a powerful force and like gravity, requires an amazing amount of energy to overcome.  We’ve already talked aobut Harry Reid winning so I won’t rehash that one.  However, it looks like Alaska will retain their back stabbing Senator as well.  It’s harder to call what happened in AK.  I suspect that once all is reviewed, there is a combination of some flaws in Miller and some incumbency benefit.  I also think (I can’t prove a bit of this) that the vote had at least a tinge of anti Palin response.  I say this because Palin always was an outsider in the R’s of Alaska and she drove that stake home with her support of Miller.  There is a big rift in the R party in Alaska and I think the establishment won out this time.

Well, it’s the morning after and I’m sure there are Democrats who feel like their world has just been turned upside down.  For those folks and others, I leave you with this:

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