Fox and others have just released the first exit polls for several key states of Indiana, Ohio and Virginia. Highlights:
- New voters are breaking for Obama by 60 – 70% to 30% to 40%, depending upon the state. Republican spokesperson “not surprised”
- White men are breaking to McCain by 4% (Ohio) to almost 20% (Virginia), depending upon the state. Democrat spokesperson “not surprised.”
- Late deciders are breaking for Obama in Indiana and Ohio but to McCain in Virgiana…about 10% spreads in each.
I’m encouraged by the Virginia info as it would seem to support McCain on a couple of key fronts. The Ohio data gives me concern as white males are only slightly more disposed to McCain and there was a strong number for Obama in late breakers. That said, I don’t see anything that causes any overall “this is getting away from us” at this point.
Stay tuned!
Revisions/extensions (4:53 pm 11/4/2008, steveegg) – In addition to my usual call to ignore the polls if you haven’t already voted, I present some circumstantial evidence dug up by Jim Geraghty that these may be as hosed as they were 4 years ago:
08:32 – AP doing exit polling in Stafford. Talking 4 to 1 to minorities over whites at a Republican precinct (Falmouth). Expect it to be skewed. Don’t trust the exit polls as they start to trickle out.
First, vote (especially if you’re going to vote for the elephant brand). Second, wait for some real numbers.
added revision (5:01, Shoebox) – Drudge has been running a headline showing O up by 15% in PA. That may actually be good news for McCain. Kerry was up by 20% in the early polling and ended up winning by only 2%.
