The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.
SurveyUSA released their VP polling today for Iowa. Tim Pawlenty continues his trend of finishing last.
I mentioned yesterday that Lieberman was polling better than Pawlenty. In an even more troubling finding, Huckabee polls best of the 4 potential Republican VPs, in all but one situation.
If the Republicans think Denver could be a disaster for the Dems, can you imagine what would happen within the Minneapolis convention if McCain were to select Huckabee?
WASHINGTON (AP) – Another week, another rumbling train of tornadoes that obliterates entire city blocks, smashing homes to their foundations and killing people even as they cower in their basements.
With the year not even half done, 2008 is already the deadliest tornado year in the United States since 1998 and seems on track to break the U.S. record for the number of twisters in a year, according to the National Weather Service. Also, this year’s storms seem to be unusually powerful.But like someone who has lost all his worldly possessions to a whirlwind, meteorologists cannot explain exactly why this is happening.
“There are active years and we don’t particularly understand why,” said research meteorologist Harold Brooks at the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Okla.
There’s something happening in weather that the experts don’t understand? You’re kidding me right! Isn’t everything caused by gorebal warming? Apparently not!
Global warming cannot really explain what is happening, Carbin said. While higher temperatures could increase the number of thunderstorms, which are needed to trigger tornadoes, they also would tend to push the storm systems too far north to form some twisters, he said.
La Nina, the cooling of parts of the Central Pacific that is the flip side El Nino, was a factor in the increased activity earlier this year"”especially in February, a record month for tornado activity"”but it can’t explain what is happening now, according to Carbin.
Carbin explained the most recent tornadoes with just one word: “May.” May is typically the busiest tornado month of the year.
That sounds like scientific lingo for “Shit happens!”
Gee, that’s pretty much what I’ve thought about gorebal warming all along; the most likely and accurate explanation for weather changes is “Shit happens!”
And I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!
This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because the head Moron is somewhere north of the border hung over catching a harvest of walleye (or is it both?).
For those of you who can navigate Waukesha’s maze of streets, tonight is Blog N Grog night, at Neighbors’ Social Club, 260 W Main St in Waukesha, starting at 7 pm. Since steveegg is out of the country, it will be safe to go :-) Just make sure to hoist a cold one for him; he’ll return the favor with Labatt Maximum Ice.
We now return you to your regularily-scheduled co-blogger and guest bloggers.
So says Sharon Stone as she explains why China was struck with an earthquake that has claimed over 60,000 lives. In Sharon’s mind, the earthquake was evening up the way China has been treating Tibet.
I wonder if there will be any condemnation for Sharon for her claim, the way there was after Jerry Falwell and John Hagge made comments about homosexual issues being responsible for the 9/11 attacks and Katrina respectively? Will the MSM and the moonbats be consistent and cry for an apology from Sharon saying that this is a great human tradegy and to politicize it is in poor taste? Or, because Tibet is an issue that they are fond of, will they look the other way?
What’s your bet? I know where I have my money!
Included in names that have supposedly been on John McCain’s VP short list is, Minnesota Governor, Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty’s name is on the list because he is a young, arguably successful and popular Governor who share’s most of McCain’s key views. While Pawlenty’s name comes up nearly anytime a “short list” is comprised, I think his is one name no longer on the list that McCain keeps
McCain held a barbecue this weekend that many folks were seeing as a “get-to-know-you” for potential VP candidates. Notably missing from this gathering was Pawlenty. Reports were that Pawlenty had a family event and that was at least one reason he wasn’t invited. I think that’s just a convenient cover.
SurveyUSA has been doing a series of polls that will eventually cover 17 states. Each poll queries voters on their likelihood to vote for various combinations of McCain or Obama with 4 possible VP combinations for each. They’ve only completed 5 states but the results thus far aren’t good for Pawlenty. The results for Ohio, Virgina, California, Pennsylvania and New Mexico are in, and with only 1 exception, Pawlenty finishes last compared to the other three names polled. Perhaps the saddest part of this (for conservatives) is that Joe Lieberman is one of the VP names polled and he beat Pawlenty in 19 out of 20 combinations.
Another hit on Pawlenty is a recent Rasmussen Poll. This poll shows McCain trailing Obama by 15 points in Minnesota and confirms a poll done in April that showed a similar deficit. Some of the argument for Pawlenty being VP would be his ability to make Minnesota a competitive state and perhaps put it in the Republican category for the first time since 1972. If the Rasumessen poll is accurate, it’s unlikely that even Pawlenty as VP could close that large a gap.
It’s hard to say whether Pawlenty would really want a VP slot, opinions vary. If you get consistently beaten by Lieberman and deliver a winning margin only in New Mexico, it probably won’t matter if you want the job or not, you aren’t going to have it offered.
I spent a few hours at the Wisconsin Memorial park this morning. I watched the VFW members, color guards, a band and 1,600 beautiful American Flags blowing in the morning breeze. I heard the 21 gun salute, the National Anthem and of course… Taps. I watched the remembrance ceremony and a reading from an American combat veteran, he calls it, A Comrade. I would like to share some of the sounds and sights with you.
Note: Since I can’t seem to embed this video here, please view it here.
If anyone was there and caught the full name of Sgt. Pepper, I would like to hear from you. The poem he wrote and shared with us was very good.
Update: Think we got the video working. Thanks for sharing!
Boy George!
“
Has Steve left yet?
Jim Hoft has the details of the AP (or if you prefer, crAP) getting caught outright lying about Ayatollah Ali Sistani issuing fatwas authorizing the use of force against Americans in Iraq. Words escape me, especially since the clock is ticking.
No, the weekend edition is not going to be a regular feature. I’ve got a couple hours to burn before I’m on the road and out of touch for a week, so I thought I’d pay homage to Mary Katharine Ham’s move to the Examiner…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Z784ETkZ6k[/youtube]
See youse mugs next Saturday.
Steve’s gone and it’s time to party! Let’s see what’s in uncle Steve’s refridgerator.
[youtube]FemlmOPdkRE[/youtube]
Anyone have any bright ideas on how we can vandalize the place?
I say we go all Liza, all the time.
There is but one reason for this song…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nLiQBV6A7c[/youtube]
I’m on vacation next week (hunting the great Canadian walleye, to be specific), so I’ll leave you in the tender care of Shoebox and the guest-bloggers. Before then, however, we’ve got one more Scramble:
Thank you, cannonball.
Side note, that sales tax is what Barack Hussein Obama was once so opposed to, he wanted placards saying he was responsible for its temporary suspension back in 2000.
Blogging will be light on my end today and tomorrow; I still have some last-minute items to take care of. If I don’t make it back in here, see you next Saturday.
What if I told you:
Would you be interested?
In 2006 when oil was running about $75/barrel, the CEO of Jet Blue, David Neeleman put together a plan to develop an industry that converted coal to oil. The technology for this process was developed in WWII and was used by the Germans to manufacture oil as they were being shut out from other sources. Following WWII the abundant availability of cheap oil, along with lobbying from oil companies and environmentalists caused various US trials and efforts towards commercializing coal gasification technology to be forgotten.
So why can’t we get coal gasification going now? First, as you may have already guessed, environmentalists go crazy any time coal is mentioned. The gasification process does release carbon dioxide (oooooooh, the boogieman of global warming!). However, recent advances in cleaning processes have advocates claiming that they can actually make the process less carbon impactful than today’s burning of natural oil. Additionally, carbon dioxide is used by traditional oil companies to claim oil otherwise unattainable. The carbon dioxide is pumped deep into wells which causes oil to move towards the surface. Once in the ground, the carbon dioxide naturally is reabsorbed into the ground.
The second reason coal gasification hasn’t moved forward is that it is economics. Neeleman’s plan had an estimated cost of $4B per plant that was capable of producing 20M barrels of oil each year. The estimated break even point is about $55/barrel. One can imagine the difficulty of gathering capital to produce a commodity that has the significant fluctuations of oil. Even in 2006, there were well known analysts saying that oil would settle back to $30 or $40 per barrel. Neeleman’s proposal would be that the US government would guarantee the capital investment. Ironically, in exchange for the guarantee, Neeleman’s plan offered a windfall profit to the government of 25% of any amount that oil went over $75/barrel.
Neeleman’s plan called for 45 plants for a total guarantee of $180B (this would be a guarantee not a handout). With 45 plants they could replace about 25% of our current imports.
As with other solutions, coal gasification isn’t going to solve our energy problem overnight. However, also like other solutions, if we don’t start, we’ll never get there.
It’s time for Congress to quit telling us what won’t work or spending time on asinine pandering like voting to sue OPEC or degrading oil executives.
If Congress took our energy problem seriously they would recognize that for the forseeable future there are no alternatives to petroleum for transportation. It’s time to take the Ben Bernanke approach, throw out “business as usual” and develop new tools that address the very specific issue of expanding supply. Anything else is just wasting time. Unfortunately, that’s one of the few things that Congress seems competent in doing.
…well, I do and I would guess you do too. I’ll also bet that most people who have to pay for their gas also would like to see the price come down. But what about our political elect? Do they want to see gas prices come down? This article today from CBS Chicago says that for some of them, the answer is: NO and HELL NO!
On average, the total government take on a gallon of gas is about $.40. However, there are areas where the state or local tax is not a fixed amount but is a percent of the retail value. The result is that as the retail price continues to climb, so does the tax that is paid.
Chicago is an area that has a percentage gas tax. As the article points out, tax on a gallon of gasoline in Chicago is now nearly $.80 per gallon. While Dick Durbin was asking oil executives whether they were ashamed of their profits, parts of the state he represents were charging nearly twice the national average for taxes. What makes this even more appalling is realizing that of the $.40 national average, the average for state and local taxes is about $.21. The combination of state and local taxes in the Chicago area are about $.61, nearly THREE TIMES THE NATIONAL AVERAGE!
One would think that with prices going up, the folks in Chicago might see fit to saying, “Hey, we could get by with just two times the national average,” and cut the rate by $.20 or so. One would think, but then, one would be wrong. See, there’s never been a governmental entity that couldn’t find ways to spend the WINDFALL PROFITS they may get…
And that, of course, is exactly the point for the politicians. Gov. Blagojevich, for example, is counting on the high price of gasoline to bring at least an extra $220 million in the State Treasury in the fiscal year that begins this July. Most of that will be used to balance the way-out-of-balance budget.
There is no solution to the creep (used as a noun and verb) and greed of government that doesn’t involve pitchforks and torches!
Where’s my lighter?
Matt Lewis points us to a very-special birthday video from the NRSC…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSd9QJhemcA[/youtube]
Hey Al, here’s to #58 seeing you back home in New York City.
If I were smart, I would’ve done this one last week…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNId8clBdbI[/youtube]
As a reminder, I’ll be gone for a week starting Saturday on my Great Canadian Walleye Hunt. Shoebox is back from his fishing trip, and I should have the usual guest-blogging crew in.
The price of a barrel of oil has increased nearly 50% since the first of the year. There has been much speculation as to what is driving the increase. The drop in the value of the dollar, increased usage from developing countries, tension in the Middle East, speculators and numerous factors have been pointed to as causing the run up. Certainly, each of these have impact on the price increase but I think one factor has been missed entirely.
Let me start with some background, in poker playing. When playing poker it’s important to not tell your opponent what you have in your hand. That seems pretty obvious. What’s not obvious to most folks is that telling another player what you have in your hand doesn’t typically involve spoken words. Good poker players can tell what their opponents think of their hands based on “tells.” “Tells” are unconscious body gestures, stroking your chin, pulling an ear, scratching your nose or a host of other things that the player may do each time they have a good, or a poor hand. A good poker player will identify and use those “tells” to determine what kind of hand their opponent has. Based on that information, they know how to bet.
So why has oil been increasing? The world oil market has been reading the “tell” of the US political system.
Look at this chart that shows the price of Light Sweet Oklahoma Crude (it tracks pretty close to the NY traded crude) by day of 2008.
oil-prices
OK, this would be a lot easier if I could draw arrows on graphs but….
Let me give you the events of a few dates:
So what happened to oil prices along those same dates?
I’m not saying that there is a direct cause and effect between the outlined activities and the move of oil. I am saying that the world oil market is getting consistent and repetitive “tells” that the US government, at all levels, is unwilling to do anything to increase the world’s oil supply. As examples, all of the remaining Presidential candidates have refused to drill for oil in ANWR and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee recently caved to environmentalists and refused to expedited leasing for oil shale in Colorado.
Worse yet, the governement is giving “tells” that indicate that along with not increasing supplies, they will increase the costs of doing business for US oil companies. Examples of this are the Cap and Trade systems being proposed by the leading Presidential Candidates and demanding excess profits taxes on oil companies. Markets know that the impact of these items is that impacted companies will either reduce the availability of their products or increase their costs to the consumer.
The worse thing a beginning poker player can do is let their emotions get the better of them and bet irrationally hoping that that will improve the situation. The US has shown that trait with their multiple demands to Saudi Arabia for increased oil production as well as Congress’s passage of a bill that would allow it to sue OPEC for price setting and limiting supplies. Both of these are clearly actions of a frustrated player who sees no good options in their current hand.
Until the US starts a new hand and resets the odds by increasing the world oil supply by exploration and development within US territories, the world oil market will continue to hold a royal flush. If they hold a royal flush and know that we hold 5 unmatched cards, they will continue to bet into the pot and we will see continued increases in the price of oil.
Today, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, my Congresscritter) released a plan to deal with the looming financial crisis that is facing the federal government, “A Roadmap for America’s Future. Yesterday, I highlighted a Congressional Budget Office report on the long-term future of the federal government’s finances. To recap yesterday’s analysis; doing either nothing or attempting to match the required spending increases with tax increases was found by the CBO to be unsustainable.
They also did an analysis of a third scenario; the not-yet-released Roadmap. I chose not to discuss that at that time because the details of the plan weren’t out yesterday, and because the CBO limited its analysis to the overall numbers. The CBO found that the then-not-specific spending targets requested by Ryan and the minority on the House Budget Committee is ultimately sustainable, with debt as a percentage of GDP briefly peaking above 100% around 2040 and falling back to a slightly-more-manageable number as deficit spending is replaced by surpluses, and economic growth continuing at a pace not possible otherwise.
On to some of the specifics:
There’s a lot more than I’ve included here. It truly is a sweeping proposal.
(H/T – Jim Hoft)
No, I’m not going to apologize for the language. This is some seriously fucked-up repugnant shit.
By a vote of 324-84, including the entire Wisconsin delegation in the aye column, the House of Representatives passed a law designed to do two things that will do everything but reduce gas prices:
– Allow anti-trust suits against OPEC.
– Demand the 932nd investigation into price-fixing by Big Oil.
I’ll briefly take the second item first. Because of the jackasses in Congress, including the fucktards in the Senate that refused to open up the Colorado oil shale fields, we’re at the extreme high end of the supply-demand curve. OF COURSE there’s going to be massive speculation when demand outstrips supply, and said speculation is going to leverage prices beyond what it would if there was a better balance between demand and supply. I will point out the 931 previous investigations all found that there was no collusion between the traders to keep the price high; what the fuck is gong to be different with the 932nd?
Berry Laker pretty much predicted the response of the market to this piece of horseshit. I missed the intraday charts, but oil closed at $133.17/barrel and wholesale reformulated gas closed at $3.3965/gallon. I’d say that’s a shot across the bow.
Now to the suing OPEC item. There’s a slight problem with that; they’re sovereign nations not subject to territorial law. When the Justice Department comes a-knocking, what do you suppose the reaction of Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC is going to be? If you think they’ll boost production just because a couple lawyers threatened them, I’ll point out that Saudi Arabia brushed off a friendly request from President Bush a couple weeks ago. When some judge decides to try to seize those countries’ assets in the US, what’s more likely; a capitulation from OPEC or a complete shutoff of the spigot and a “FUCK YOU!”? I’ll remind you that we’re more-dependent on OPEC now than we were the previous two times they shut off the spigot, and they shut it off for more-trivial reasons than all of them having their assets seized.
Then there’s the whole question of enforcement. If we’re serious about forcing the OPEC spigots open, it’s going to take a military operation that makes both theaters of WWII look like a training exercise. Talk about your blood for oil. Oh yeah, that’s going to cost a lot.
I do have to take a moment to ask Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner, two Congresscritters who usually know better, “What the fuck are you thinking by signing onto this smelly piece of shit?” There is nothing, I repeat, nothing that could possibly make this worth voting for.
(H/T – Owen)
The Milwaukee Area Technical College district wants to jack up budgeted spending by 6.2% over last year’s budget to $333 million, supported by a 4.9% property tax levy increase. Let’s run some numbers:
– Last year, despite budgeting “only” $314 million, they actually spent $331 million because of various unbudgeted construction projects.
– The 4.9% property tax levy increase asked for is, according to the article, mostly for increases in salary and benefits. That would be an additional $1.5 million in wages/salary, $2+ million in health care and $2.5 million in current-year non-health-care fringe benefits (an additional $2 million in increased fringe benefits is related to a new requirement to put future retirement benefits on the books the year they’re accrued instead of the year they’re paid out). Who here outside of government has had a 4.9% increase in wages and benefits?
– Tuition (set by the state) is going up 5.5%.
Jeanette Bell (ex-mayor of West Allis and proven tax-and-spender) had the audacity to claim that MATC cut to the bone. Again, I ask, who outside of government is getting a 4.9% increase in their compensation packages? Say, maybe it’s time to take another look at the $600,000 public safety initiative as well.
Ever since I was a young boy…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpDd2nclh3I[/youtube]
(H/T – Greg Mankiw via Brian Faughnan via Charlie Sykes)
At the request of Rep. Paul Ryan, the ranking member on the House Budget Committee, the Congressional Budget Office prepared an analysis of the long-term economic effects of doing absolutely nothing to either spending or revenues (other than making the Bush tax cuts permanent and indexing the AMT), using a very-long-term plan to slow and ultimately eliminate deficit spending, and using tax increases to attempt to match the increases in spending.
Table 1, which outlines the projected changes in spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (SocSecurity/Medicare/Medicaid operate under current law, “discretionary” spending essentially matches the growth in GDP, interest payments on debt increases to match the increased debt), has some scary numbers. By 2030, Medicare and Medicaid together will account for a larger percentage of GDP than Social Security. By 2050, they’ll account for a larger percentage of GDP than “discretionary” spending, interest payments will be the single largest item on the budget at 13.6% of GDP, and total government spending will account for 41.8% of GDP. By 2082, more than 75 cents of every dollar produced by the economy would go to the federal government, with 40 cents of that going to pay interest, and Medicare/Medicaid spending outstripping the rest of the budget.
Bear in mind, that is with no “universal health care”, no adjustments in the Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid formulae, and no adjustment other than the change in GDP in the remainder of government spending.
As for the debt, by (approximately) 2030, it would be more than 100% of GDP, a situation only experienced in and immediately after World War II. Shortly afterward, it will zoom past the all-time high of 110% of GDP, blowing past 290% of GDP by 2050 and 400% of GDP by 2060.
A textbook analysis of the effect of the exploding deficits on the real Gross National Product per person is similarily ugly. The CBO acknowledges that the textbook analysis is too rosy, but by the late 2040s, the GNP/person will begin to drop due to the effects of the deficits. By 2060, and a drop of 17% from the peak, the debt will be so large, the future effects are incalculable.
Regarding the thought that increased taxes would save us, the focus on the blogs I linked to was on the 88% top tax rate and 25% bottom tax rate required to support a non-interest spending rate of 35% of GDP (and the associated 40% of GDP spent on interest). The CBO notes the following regarding that more-than-doubling of the tax rate: “Such tax rates would significantly reduce economic activity and would create serious problems with tax avoidance and tax evasion. Revenues would probably fall significantly short of the amount needed to finance the growth of spending; therefore, tax rates at such levels would probably not be economically feasible.”
The CBO also ran some numbers on the assumption that non-interest government spending would somehow be held at 28% of GDP (the projections for 2050). Even that would necessitate a higher-than-90% increase in taxes; the lowest rate would go up from 10% to 19%, the current 25% rate would go up to 47%, and the top 35% rate (both individual and corporate) would go up to 66%. That tax increase is estimated to reduce real GNP per person by between 5% and 20% from what it would be if the 2007 levels of spending and taxation would be maintained.
since late last year, the MSM has been gleefully reporting that the US economy was in a recession. Never mind that the threshold has yet to be crossed, we were in a recession because they said so. But are we?
NEW YORK (Reuters) – An imminent recession could cost New York City 59,400 jobs between now and the middle of next year, with the profit-stricken financial sector the “epicenter” of the downturn, a new report said on Tuesday.
An “Imminent” recession? Even Reuters put it in quotes. I thought we were already in a recession? The real fun though is that this recession, which hasn’t happened yet, might, if it does happen cost jobs in NYC.
Let’s see if I can play the “create a catastrophe” game as well as the MSM…
An Imminent recession may cost NYC LOTS of jobs. If LOTS of jobs are not created or perhaps lost in NYC, taxes will possibly DRAMATICALLY decrease for the city. This DRAMATIC decrease in taxes might be enough to cause NYC to be unable to satisfy its general obligations and you may find that NYC DELCARES BANKRUPTCY. If something that dramatic were to occur, well, who knows what the effect on the overall US economy could be. In fact, if bad enough and if it rippled across the US we could find that in the extreme it’s possible that THE US DOLLAR BECOMES WORTHLESS.
But I may be a bit a head of the game:
Although the data are still too ambiguous to determine whether New York City is already in a recession, the report said the “Independent Budget Office is forecasting that a local recession is imminent, if it has not begun already.” No recovery is seen until the second half of 2009
Huh? The data is too ambiguous to know if they are in a recession but obviously clear enough to show that they will be and, that when they are, it won’t get better until late 2009!
Wait, this sounds vaguely familiar….
I guess when you already know how the story will end, the interim plot points are just so many superfluous words.
I hate the chopped, MTV-friendly version of this song, so enjoy the Matrixed version…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrbdCJiqzCE[/youtube]
A programming note; the Scramble will not happen next week, at least not with my name attached to it. I will be out of the country on the great walleye hunt north of the border.
Barack Obama is complaining that the Republicans are targeting his wife in the general election.
Um, Barack, your wife is campaigning for you:
Michelle Obama campaigned in Durham before heading to Asheville. North Carolina will hold its primary Tuesday.
Not that I agree with Hillary often but, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
If Michelle is campaigning, she’s fair game as she is telling people that they should vote for Barack based on her credibility.
If you want to keep her out of the campaign, keep her off of the campaign trail. Short of that, welcome to the big leagues.
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