No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Business' Category

June 3, 2009

Politics as high-school physics?

by @ 13:36. Filed under Business, Economy, Politics.

The First Law of Thermodynamics states:

Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. It can only change forms. In any process, the total energy of the universe remains the same.

Timothy Carney at the Washington Examiner has found its corollary in politics, reporting today that General Motors, the formerly private company now owned by the federal government, will use bailout money provided by the federal government to lobby … the federal government:

General Motors will continue its multimillion-dollar lobbying operation in Washington, even after the federal government takes ownership of it. The automaker may even maintain its high-dollar lobbying contracts with some of the wealthiest and most influential K Street firms.

“We believe we have an obligation to remain engaged at the federal and state levels,” General Motors stated in an e-mail after President Barack Obama announced his plan for the federal takeover of the carmaker, “and to have our voice heard in the policymaking process.”

As a result, some of the jobs that the White House will save with this unprecedented nationalization could be on K Street in downtown D.C., rather than in Detroit.

In other words, part of the taxpayer money (and the dosh borrowed from the Chinese…) is being laundered through “Government Motors” to pay for lobbyists who will buy dinners for and contribute to the campaigns of the members who voted to create the bailout program in the first place. It’s a closed system, the total energy (money) of which remains the same. The money just changes forms, that’s all.

Head spinning yet?

As Ed points out at Hot Air, there’s nothing wrong with lobbying per se; it’s protected under the 1st amendment right to petition Congress. However, this is more than a bit unseemly: for a company whose only hope of survival was to be taken over by the government at taxpayer expense to then use that same money to lobby its new owners for more money is more than ridiculous. It would have been better to have let GM just go broke and then divvy the bailout money among the workers.

But such is the way of things in Obama’s Corporatist States of America. Sigh

(Cross-posted at Public Secrets)

June 1, 2009

Who Do Ya Know Wants To Buy A Car????

by @ 14:55. Filed under Business.

Well he’s no E.V.S…. That’s for sure.

gmo

President Borg says that the government isn’t interested in running an auto manufacturing business. Ironically the French government said the same thing before invading Renault. Imagine the U.S. with a brand new fleet of  THESE….

5_le_car_modele

Awwwww…. Those kids look so happy in their death machine clown car…….

GM will be directed to build this kind of crap under the direction of it’s new CEO, President Obama.

May 29, 2009

Pre-vacation auto upates

by @ 23:32. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Yes, there are a couple items, but not the big one that was expected today.

  • The UAW ratified the revised deal that will make it take modest concessions and a $10 billion reduction of a scheduled $20 billion cash payment into the VEBA retiree health-care fund it will run in exchange for 17.5% of the common stock in the new Government Motors, $585 million per year in dividends from prefered stock worth $6.5 billion, and a $2.5 billion promissory note with scheduled payments of $1.38 billion in 2013, 2015 and 2017. What is really telling are some quotes from UAW chief Ron Gettelfinger:

    “I’m regretful that we had to do anything, and I think it’s a disgrace that we had to do anything,” he added.

    Gettelfinger declined to comment on criticism from other GM creditors that the restructuring will favor the union. “This is negotiations. You go in and you do the best job that you can,” he said.

    I would comment, but I don’t want to leave a profanity-laced tirade for my guest-bloggers.

  • Speaking of the UAW, they’re getting a GM plant previously scheduled to close retooled and taken off the axe list so GM can build subcompacts here. Early reports were that they would be the next generation of the Geo Metr…er, overseas-only Chevrolet Matiz (renamed the Spark, with an 84-hp 1.2L engine replacing the 64-hp 1.0L engine), but others suggest the next-generation Chevrolet Aveo would also be part of the mix. If you think that, between the Aveo and the Metr…er, Spark, they’ll hit 160,000 sales per year, you’ve never driven either an Aveo or a Geo Metro. While I missed out on the Aveo, I did drive a Geo Metro once. To Chicago. With my younger sister and her boyfriend-at-the-time (it was his piece of crap). Talk about a frightening experience. I will never, EVER do that again.
  • The bankruptcy judge is taking his sweet-natured time to approve the $2 billion sale of Chrysler to Fiat (with all proceeds going to senior secured creditors, who would get 29 cents on the dollar), with the US and Canadian governments seizing 75% of the new company and awarding a 55% stake to the UAW. That will be delayed until Monday, which will leave 15 days for the expected challenges to be resolved before Fiat walks away from that deal.

I won’t be here to find out whether that mythical percentage of bondholders fall for the bait-and-switch, or the actual terms of the 363 “sale” of GM to the government. I left instructions to the rest of the gang to try to keep up with that.

May 28, 2009

New bondholder plan from Government Motors

by @ 18:06. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Fox Business reports that, in the wake of the failed bonds-for-stock swap attempted by GM, they and their Treasury masters have made a second offer that cannot be refused. If and only if a sufficient number of bondholders agree to not oppose a federal/UAW takeover of GM in bankruptcy court by 5 pm Eastern Saturday, the Treasury will reward them and the current stockholders with an initial 10% stake in Government Motors and an pair of warrants to ultimately increase that stake to 25%. The US Treasury will begin with a 72.5% stake, and the UAW with a 17.5% stake, so those of you still holding GM stock will likely be wiped out entirely.

Fox Business also reports that currently, 20% of the bondholders have swallowed the pill whole. Quoting a group of bondholders that apparently are at least part of that 20%: “Since the initial offer was made on April 27th, circumstances have materially changed that make today’s offer more attractive.” Could that be related to the utter thrashing that Chrysler’s secured creditors have taken?

Summarizing from the SEC filing:

  • The transfer of assets from General Motors (“Old GM”) to Government Motors (“New GM”), which will not include the $27.2 billion in bonds or most of the unsecured claims, will happen under Section 363 of the bankrupcy code.
  • All but $8 billion of whatever funding the US Treasury, and possibly the Ontario and Canadian governments, has or will pour into both Old GM overall (including the $20 billion in TARP bailouts) and New GM in relation to the bankruptcy proceeding will never be paid back.
  • Related to that, it is anticipated that Debtor-In-Possession financing provide by the Treasury will be in excess of $50 billion.
  • In addition to the $8 billion in debt the New GM will owe to the federal government, they will owe the UAW’s VEBA $2.5 billion and “other debtors” (presumably the secured creditors) $6.5 billion.
  • In addition to the 72.5% common-stock stake that the Treasury will have, they will also receive $2.5 billion in perpetual prefered stock with a 9% dividend per annum (or $225 million per year). If the Canadians participate in the DIP financing, they will get a portion of this.
  • In addition to the 17.5% initial common-stock stake that the UAW’s VEBA will have, they will also receive $6.5 billion in perpetual prefered stock with a 9% dividend per annum (or $585 million per year). They will also receive a warrant to purchase an additional 2.5% (as of 12/31/2009) any time before 12/31/2015 at a cost of $1.875 billion.
  • If and only if a sufficient number of bondholders, unspecified in the filing, agree to not oppose this, “Old GM” will get a 10% common-stock stake in “New GM”. If that number is not reached, the Treasury will reduce or eliminate that stake, presumably with the percentages of Treasury and UAW ownership in New GM increasing accordingly to 80.6% Treasury and 19.4% UAW in the event of a outright elimination.
  • Again if and only if an unspecified number of bondholders agree to not oppose this, they will recieve a pair of warrants: one to purchase an additional 7.5% stake of New GM any time in the next 7 years for $1.125 billion and one to purchase an additional 7.5% stake any time in the next 10 years for $2.25 billion. Again, if that number is not reached, the Treasury will reduce or eliminate this program.

Revisions/extensions (6:31 pm 5/28/2009) – I might be missing something here, but there is nothing in the SEC Form 8-K linked to above that says that the bondholders themselves will get anything. The 10% initial stake in “New GM” and the pair of 7.5%-stake warrants in same go to the owners of “Old GM”.

Previously:
GM shuts down the bondholder buyout plan
As the wheels turn, automaker edition

If it moves, tax it, e-commerce edition

by @ 7:32. Filed under Business, Politics - National, Taxes.

(H/T – Allahpundit)

Brett Joshpe wrote on The American Spectator site how sales on the internet are about to become a lot more expensive. Let’s go through the Cliff’s Notes timeline:

– In 1992, the Supreme Court ruled in Quill v. North Dakota that a retailer must have a “physical presence” in a state in order for that state to require the retailer to collect and remit that state’s sales tax. Do note that does not prohibit states from demanding their pound (in the case of Wisconsin, 5%-5.85%) of flesh from the purchaser; indeed, most states do demand their cut.

– Because of mass disobedience of that mandate, last year, New York required any online retailer who so much has an affiliate advertiser in that state to collect and remit the New York sales tax. In plain English, if a site like overstock.com advertised on, say the New York Times’ site or A Blog for All, it would be forced to collect New York sales tax on purchases made by New York residents.

– In response to that, overstock.com terminated its affiliate relationships with close to 3,400 entities.

– Meanwhile, the tax-and-spend-and-tax-and-spend-and (you get the idea) folks are trying to shove through Congress, under the guise of “streamlined” sales tax, a requirement to make all online retailers collect all state/local sales taxes.

Back in the dawn of e-commerce, I was involved in a small e-commerce project. Even if somehow a standard list of items subject to a sales tax were created (a pipe dream because the T&S&T&S&T&Sers in places like Madison and Albany will always want to tax more items than those in other state capitals), the myriad of different rates, both at the state and local level, which tend to not remain constant, would be a nightmare to keep up with.

May 27, 2009

Union battle over Chrysler – revisited

by @ 18:00. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Earlier, I brought you news of three Indiana government trust funds (two pension funds and a construction fund) holding senior secured Chrysler debt that had sued (unsuccessfully, at least at this point) to stop the “sale” of Chrysler to the UAW, the American and Canadian governments, and Fiat because they would get far less consideration than the junior creditor UAW. While reading through the comments at a Hot Air post on the shutdown of GM’s stock-for-bonds offer), what is happening between the UAW’s retiree health-care fund (VEBA) plan and the various pension funds (mostly for the benefit of unionized government workers) hit me like a freight train.

It’s not exactly a battle between the UAW and the government unions. Since VEBAs are not defined-benefit plans, they are not covered by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. Worse, at least from the UAW’s, and thus the Democrats’, point of view, the VEBA obligations are junior in stature.

Since GM and Chrysler are utterly incapable of meeting their full obligations to the VEBAs ($20 billion and $10.6 billion respectively), even in the event of liquidation, a pair of complicated schemes to make the UAW whole came about. In both cases, the UAW was given preferential treatment over other creditors, including creditors senior to it. What is left unreported is that many of those creditors are the aforementioned pension funds, which would be made substantially-whole by the PBGC.

As I termed it in the comments, it’s the Chicago Double-Tap. Step 1 was to screw everybody to make whole the suddenly-politically-powerful UAW. Step 2 is to make the traditionally-politically-powerful government unions that were screwed whole. Other funds, like Indiana’s road construction fund, and the various 401(k)/403(b)/IRA plans, would still be left hung out to dry. Somehow, I doubt that is an unplanned coincidence.

GM shuts down the bondholder buyout plan

by @ 16:56. Tags:
Filed under Business.

(H/T – Ed Morrissey)

USA Today reports that Government Motors shut down the proposed stock-for-bonds buyout plan it had been offering, and will not be honoring any of the exchange offers accepted by the few bondholders that did accept the plan. GM had been offering 225 shares in the “new” GM for each $1,000 in bonds, and had all of the bondholders, which held $27 billion in bonds, accepted, they would have received a total of 10% stake in the “new” GM. One of the conditions the Obama administration set for receiving new taxpayer financing outside of bankruptcy court had been to get those holding at least 90% of the debt to agree.

Given that the current version of the reorganization plan had envisioned 10% of the “new” GM going to those bondholders, with the UAW eventually taking 20% and the government taking 70%, the question is who will get the 10% that was slated to go to the bondholders?

May 26, 2009

As the wheels turn, automaker edition

by @ 21:42. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

The first stop is at UAW Motors (formerly known as Chrysler). Reuters reports (H/T – Gabriel Malor) that a District Court case brought by three Indiana trust funds (the teachers’ union retirement fund, the police retirement fund, and a road construction fund) has been rejected, which means the sale of Chrysler to the UAW/Fiat/US government/Canadian government (technically a hearing on that sale in bankruptcy court) will go on as scheduled tomorrow. The trust funds have been arguing that the federal government does not have any authority to give funds to Chrysler to facilitate the sale, which Judge Thomas Griesa sidestepped in his denial of the motion.

The next stop is Govern…er, General Motors, and their agreement with the UAW. Reuters has a comprehensive summary of that. The Cliff’s Notes version (which assumes that GM doesn’t go into bankruptcy; more on that in a bit):

  • In exchange for a $10 billion payment into the VEBA (the retiree health care fund that GM was scheduled to pay $20 billion), the UAW would get a 17.5% common-share stake (with warrants to increase it to 20%), a $6.5 billion, 9% dividend (or $585 million/year) prefered-share stake, and a $2.5 billion note (with an effective APR of 11.1%, and scheduled payments of $1.38 billion in 2013, 2015 and 2017). Previously, GM had offered a 39% common-share stake to the UAW.
  • GM reacquires 5 Delphi plants in Michigan, New York and Indiana.
  • GM will make its small cars at an idled UAW plant, and will reopen 3 additional assembly and 1 stamping plant if sales “beat expectations”.
  • GM will offer buyouts to all its UAW-represented employees.

The $1 billion-17.5% common-share UAW stake would make the common shares worth just over $5.7 billion at issuance of that stake. Reuters notes in that summary that other creditors and the government would get the rest of the common-share stake (more on that in a bit), with no mention of the fate of the current stock. The prior reorganization plan had the government getting 55%, UAW getting 39% in exchange for the $10 billion VEBA liability, unsecured bondholders getting 10%, and the current stockholders getting 1%, with the common shares worth $25.65 billion at issuance assuming the $10 billion-39% common-share UAW stake ratio).

Assuming that the current stockholders would still get 1% of the company, their current $873.1 million net investment (down from $1.25 billion when the previous reorganization plan was announced last month) would dip to $57 million (down from $256 million in the previous reorganization plan, which was rather inflated).

Stop number three is Governme…er, General Motors and the bondholders. Reuters has the interest in the aforementioned $27 billion for 10% stake offer, which expires in a couple hours and requires a 90% acceptance level to stave off bankruptcy, at well under 10%. Meanwhile, Fox Business says that the process could run all the way through the end of the weekend and up to the June 1 GM drop-dead deadline set by the Obama administration.

The final stop is Government (screw it, it’s no longer General) Motors and the government. The New York Times reports that the new deal envisions the federal government taking 70% of the common stock, with another $70 billion-$90 billion in taxpayer money on top of the $20 billion in TARP money already “loaned” anticipated to get GM through the bankruptcy process. Remember that UAW Motors will not be paying back either the $4.3 billion in TARP money that Chrysler received or the $3.2 billion in interim government bankruptcy financing, but will be expected to pay back the $6.2 billion in post-bankruptcy taxpayer money loaned to it. Using that ratio, it looks like there’s $60 billion, give or take $10 billion, down the hole in exchange for $4 billion in Government Motors stock.

Revisions/extensions (10:15 pm 5/26/2009) – DrewM. points us to an interesting quote in The News Organization That Cannot Be Quoted’s™ story from Kip Penniman, analyst for KDP Investment Advisors:

If GM announced they got low single-digit participation, it would be a slap to GM and the absolute response to the Treasury-mandated offer. … A cynical person would say that the offer was set up to ensure GM would go into Chapter 11 and provide the government a scapegoat.

That story also notes that those bondholders with credit default swaps could make up to $2.33 billion in the event of a GM bankruptcy filing. It does not specify what percentage of bondholders has credit default swaps, but under the prior, highly-inflated plan, the at-issuance worth of the bondholders’ equity stake would have been $2.56 billion, and under the current plan (assuming they still get 10% of the equity), the at-issuance worth of that stake would be $570 million. Do remember that the paper value of those bonds is $27 billion.

Further, The Wall Street Journal reports that, unlike the Chrysler offering, the government is going to pay off the secured creditors in full, to the tune of $6 billion.

May 22, 2009

Union battle over Chrysler

by @ 8:53. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Alamo City Pundit)

The AP reports that, fresh from a denial by bankruptcy judge Arthur Gonzalez to delay the expedited sale of portions of Chrysler to Fiat, the US and Canadian governments, and the UAW, three Indiana trust funds that held senior secured debt in Chrysler, the Indiana Major Moves Construction Fund, Indiana State Police Pension Trust (both managed by Indiana’s Treasurer, Richard Mourdock), and the Indiana State Teachers Retirement Fund will be appealing to district court to try to stop the sale and the 29-cents-on-the-dollar return for the senior secured creditors.

The Louisville Courier-Journal puts the losses suffered by the teachers’ fund at $4,600,000, the police fund at $147,000, and the road-construction fund at $896,000. The NEA, which just took over operation of the largest teachers’ union in Indiana after possible fraud committed by the union’s insurance arm, can’t be happy about that.

As a result, Treasurer Mourdock has instructed the funds run by his office to not buy any more secured debt from companies receiving federal bailout money. I guess we can now add state/local public capital to the list of capital no longer flowing to bailed-out companies.

The descent to France continues

by @ 7:37. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Rob Port)

Politico found a stupid Florida Dem, Rep. Alan Grayson, wondering how to make Disney World even more crowded. His solution? In the middle of a major recession, demand that companies with more than 100 employees immediately start offering both full-time and part-time employees with at least a year on the job a week of paid vacation, then 3 years after that goes into effect, bump that up to 2 weeks and require companies with 50 or more employees offer both full-time and part-time employees with at least a year on the job a week of paid vacation.

Somebody better ask Milwaukee how that 9-day paid-“sick”-leave deal is going. Last I checked, that wasn’t going so well.

What else should one expect from a Congress that gives itself almost as much vacation time as teachers? Speaking of that, the story finds Sen. Lisa Murkowski (“R”-AK) whining that isn’t enough. I may not have a quarter to give, and even if I did, I wouldn’t give her it, but I can still say, “Call someone who cares.”

May 21, 2009

War on corporations holding back economic recovery – part 2

by @ 19:44. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Hot Air Headlines via Flip)

Remember what I relayed from Dad29 in what turned out to be Part 1 of what seems to be an ongoing series? Bloomberg reports that fund managers are now wary of lending money to unionized companies with unfunded pension liabilities because of what happened at Chrysler. Quoting George Schultze, head of Schultze Asset Management, one of the last Chrysler holdouts:

Lenders will have to figure out how to price this risk. The obvious one is: Don’t lend to a company with big legacy liabilities or demand a much higher rate of interest because you may be leapfrogged in a bankruptcy….

It’s terrible precedent. The sad thing is it impacts the manufacturing sector and the companies that have legacy liabilities directly. It will be nearly impossible, or much more expensive, to get secured financing for these type of companies.

I do want you to read the entire article. However, I can’t let the closing paragraph escape notice:

“People are starting to think ‘This is a very activist administration, even more than we counted on,’” said Martin Fridson, CEO of money manager Fridson Investment Advisors in New York. “If it comes down to the interest of creditors or labor unions, the administration is going to override what you thought you could do.”

What’s left of private capital for at-risk companies is about to exit stage left.

Thursday Midday Read – Rick Moran’s “Not Socialism: Gangsterism”

by @ 12:17. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

It is Thursday, so I’m resting from heavy lifting. Fortunately, Rick Moran isn’t. Rick may average a post a weekday, and he does at times have a bit of contempt for social conservatives, but those posts are must-reads.

This one is no different. Rick runs with a letter from a Dodge dealer getting shut off from the Dodge brand with no assistance from Dodge to relieve him of his soon-to-be-worthless inventory of cars and parts into why Obama is able to get away with what he’s doing, to an explanation of why it’s not merely an extension of what Bush did. I’ll give you a mid-post taste:

It can happen because at the moment, the opposition forces are scattered, dispirited, and engaged in a fruitless quest to determine who is a “real” conservative and who is an Obama loving, free market hating, wimpy, squishy RINO.

It can happen because we are barking up the wrong tree when we accuse the Democrats of practicing socialism. Any Chicagoan recognizes what’s going on as pure gangsterism – the application of power through the use blackmail, threats, and pure muscle and the devil take the Constitution, the rule of law, and simple fairness.

May 20, 2009

Yet another reason why I don’t do ads – your Federal government

by @ 21:13. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Robert Stacy McCain)

When I went to BlogWorld in 2007, I remember seeing something about pay-per-post, where companies would pay bloggers to write good stuff about their products. Apparently, the ninnies that can’t read the Constitution over at the Federal Trade Commission just discovered that (either that, or they got into power on 1/20 and got to this point in their checklist). BusinessWeek reports:

But such back-scratching endorsements could become tougher under a coming set of Federal Trade Commission guidelines designed to clarify how companies can court bloggers to write about their products. This summer, the government agency is expected to issue new advertising guidelines that will require bloggers to disclose when they’re writing about a sponsor’s product and voicing opinions that aren’t their own. The new FTC guidelines say that blog authors should disclose when they’re being compensated by an advertiser to discuss a product.

Don’t get me wrong; those that do accept items of value in return for raving about a particular product should disclose that. However, we don’t need the federal government mandating it.

For the record, no corporate entity has ever given me anything in exchange for blog-inches. Of course, the fact that I don’t do reviews has something to do with that.

May 19, 2009

…And then they came for the radio ratings…

by @ 9:28. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes, who stands to lose if the ObamiNation wins)

The Radio Equalizer reports that the same groups heavily invested in vote fraud and census fraud are attempting to get rid of an accurate measure of radio listening, Arbitron’s Portable People Meter, because it “…undercounts and misrepresents the number and loyalty of minority radio listeners.” The FCC, operating in the wishes of the group, which includes President Obama, has opened an inquiry into the use of the PPM.

The PPM system uses signals encoded into a radio signal and played back through a radio’s speakers to record to what stations a particular panelist is exposed on a portable device, which then transmits via landline the results. It currently complements the traditional diary system in select markets, including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, with implementation in Milwaukee/Racine scheduled for spring 2010. Its main advantage over the diary system is that it is harder to lie about how long one actually listens to a program. Its main disadvantage is that it must be carried around, though its cell-phone size makes it easier.

In early results, talk radio, particularily conservative talk radio, has “gained” a lot of listenership compared to the diary system, while urban radio has “lost” a lot. This just won’t do for the usual suspects.

May 8, 2009

Welcome to UAW Motors

by @ 14:27. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Bloomberg is reporting that the dissident senior creditors of Chrysler have caved and will not be fighting for anything more than the 29% that the Obama administration initially offered them. The quote of the day is from Tom Lauria, which was representing the group, “After a great deal of soul-searching and, quite frankly, agony, they concluded they just don’t have critical mass to withstand the enormous pressure and machinery of the U.S. government.”

In fact, since the purchase price from Fiat is $2 billion, and the various bankruptcy fees will come out of that, they’re taking an even bigger haircut.

The Chicago Way has come to Wall Street.

May 7, 2009

How much down the UAW Motors black hole?

by @ 18:51. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Brian)

I know I’m playing catch-up because I still have essentially no energy (no, it’s not the swine flu, or any other flu; it’s the start of Allergy Season), but CNN reported yesterday that the $4 billion bridge loan from TARP, the $300 million fee on that loan, and the $3.2 billion in bankruptcy financing provided to Chrysler UAW Motors will not be paid back, though the Treasury might be getting a portion of the liquidation of Chrysler Financial. Let’s see – that’s $7.5 billion for 8% of UAW Motors/”New Chrysler”. Brilliant!

The CNN story does note that the $4.7 billion in taxpayer funds that will go to “New Chrysler” upon it emerging from bankruptcy, as well as an additional $1.5 billion likely to be loaned to it in mid-2010, will be of the secured credit variety, and will be expected to be paid back.

One more item to consider – the 55% stake the UAW would hold in “New Chrysler” is expected to be turned into cash sooner rather than later. That is supposedly valued at $4.2 billion, with apparently no shareholder voting rights beyond a single seat on the board of directors. One of the many bankruptcy documents states that Fiat will be able to get 40% of that. Somehow, I doubt they’ll pay $1.68 billion (40% of $4.2 billion) for that non-voting share, or any entity other than your federal government will come up with the $2.52 billion for the other 60% (or that plus the shortfall between Fiat’s offer and the $1.68 billion) to make the UAW whole.

As a side note; none of the bankruptcy filings appear to address who initially holds the 15% interest in “New Chrysler” that Fiat can “earn” by meeting three metrics (in 5-percent chunks): introducing a 40-mpg Chrysler made in the US, creating a “fuel-efficient” engine family made in the US, and opening up Fiat’s worldwide distribution network to the Chrysler brand. They do note, however, that separate of the Fiat-UAW VEBA buyout agreement mentioned above, Fiat can increase its total stake in “New Chrysler” to 51%, apparently by an issuance of addtional shares.

Revisons/extensions (8:04 pm 5/7/2009) – (H/T – Jim Geraghty) ProPublica reminds us that $1.5 billion went down the black hole known as Chrysler Finance, which will not be part of “New Chrysler”. That puts the grand total between $9 billion and $9.2 billion (depending on whose numbers for what got sent down the black hole so far one believes).

One bit of a positive – I do expect a rather high dividend to be paid on the government/UAW shares, even higher than what is normally paid on non-voting shares. Still, I expect a very poor rate of return on that $9 billion wasted on Chrysler, even if they don’t ultimately go Tango Uniform.

May 1, 2009

Last vestige of the Big Three manufacturers to depart Wisconsin

by @ 12:21. Filed under Business.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the Kenosha Engine plant, owned by Chrysler, will shut down by October 2010 as part of Chrysler’s bankruptcy reorganization. Of note, it is the only engine plant of four (5 including the plant dedicated to the Dodge Viper and its V-10 that is not shared by any other model) being shut down, with plants in Michigan and Mexico remaining open.

With GM shuttering the Janesville plant last year, Delphi (formerly part of GM) finishing the shuttering of its Oak Creek plant, and Ford not having any plants in Wisconsin, this marks an end to a chapter in Wisconsin’s history.

April 30, 2009

Chrysler headed into Chapter 11

by @ 8:26. Tags:
Filed under Business.

Reuters is reporting that Chrysler, LLC. is headed to bankruptcy after several holders of secured debt refused the Treasury/TARP banks/Chrysler last offer of $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for retiring the $6.9 billion in secured debt. As I noted last night, it’s a risky proposition for both the hedge funds thinking they’ll do better than the 32.6 cents on the dollar they would have received in the cramdown (sources say that in a liquidation they’d get closer to 50 cents on the dollar) and the Obama administration/UAW/Fiat plan to turn Chrysler into UAW Motors presented by the United States Government as it goes to the whims of a judge.

April 29, 2009

Chrysler to become UAW Motors

by @ 7:55. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – DrewM., and I highly recommend reading the comments, at least if you are able to handle AoSHQ-standard NSFW language)

Bloomberg reports that the United Auto Workers are poised to accept a new contract that gives them a 55% stake in Chrysler, LLC. It also reports that Italy’s Fiat will initially get a 20% stake, which may increase to 35% if certain performance goals are hit, and that the Treasury Department will retain the other 10%.

The story, and others on the web, don’t mention where the 15% that may go to Fiat will be held initially, but I presume it will be the Treasury. Somehow, I doubt the Ram and Dakota pickups or most of the Jeep lineup surviving will be part of the conditions set by the Obama administration.

The UAW portion is a bit complicated. Chrysler is obligated to put $10.6 billion into VEBA, the union-run retiree health care plan. In exchange for $8.8 billion, Chrysler will give UAW said 55% stake, valued at $4.2 billion, and put in a $4.59 billion promissory note, to be paid off in installments until 2023 at a 9% annual interest rate.

That brings up the same question that I had yesterday with General Government Motors – what happens when it’s time to convert that 55% stake into cash? With most of the VEBA funding to be paid later, I expect that to happen sooner rather than later, sooner even than at GM. The Bloomberg story notes that, if the UAW manages to get more than $4.2 billion for its full 55% stake, the Treasury will get the difference. That begs the question of what happens in the likelier eventuality that the UAW doesn’t get $4.2 billion. Will the Treasury we the taxpayers pony up that difference?

Related to that, the Washington Post notes at the end of its story that one of the key players in the Obama auto task force that has come up with both the union-owned Chrysler and government-owned GM is Ron Bloom. Bloom was instrumental in creating the employee-owned United Airlines. The Post notes that didn’t exactly work.

One more item – The News Organization That Cannot Be Quoted™ (that would be the Associated Press for those just tuning in) reports that the biggest of Chrysler’s secured creditors, representing 70% of the secured debt, including JPMorgan, Citibank Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have reached a deal with the Treasury to, if all 46 secured creditors sign on, take $2 billion in cash to retire the $6.9 billion in secured debt they hold. I note that those 4 banks are among the 19 undergoing the TARP “stress tests”, and I wonder if the hold the Obama administration has on them had anything to do with them swallowing the 71% haircut the Treasury is demanding. After all, as secured creditors, they get paid first in the event of Chrysler’s liquidation, and it is likely that they would do far better than $2 billion.

Revisions/extensions (8:13 pm 4/29/2009, involves a major ReWrite™ of the first R&E after reviewing the WaPo item) – The Washington Post reports (H/T – Dad29) that, in the now-likely event of a bankruptcy, the final US Treasury stake would be only 8%, with the Canadian government owning 2%. The hedge funds which own Chrysler secured debt are resisting the cramdown because a recent Standard&Poor’s analysis of it reveals that what the Treasury is offering is at the bottom end of what they could recover in a bankruptcy.

That is a risky proposition because a bankruptcy judge could force the cramdown down the funds’ throats. I’m sure that the Treasury knows precisely which judge will get the case, and how that judge will act.

April 28, 2009

New NRE poll – What will the official team of NASCAR (Hendrick Motorsports) be driving next year?

With the news that GM, the parent company of Chevrolet, is seeking a government takeover, the Car and Driver April Fool’s Day joke about the Obama Administration forcing them (and Chrysler) out of NASCAR is quite a bit closer to reality. With that in mind, it’s time for another NRE poll, focusing on the official team of NASCAR, Hendrick Motorsports.

I’ll leave it to your discretion on whether to count a Chevy Impala with all the badges removed as a non-factory-sponsored Chevy or “something else”. The cars IROC ran in their last couple years of existence were Pontiac Trans Ams, but since GM stopped making them (and ultimately pulled Pontiac out of motorsports), they bore no GM badges.

What will the official team of NASCAR (Hendrick Motorsports) be driving next year?

Up to 1 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • NASCAR will be out of business (26%, 10 Vote(s))
  • Toyotas (18%, 7 Vote(s))
  • Non-factory-sponsored Chevys (13%, 5 Vote(s))
  • Something else (13%, 5 Vote(s))
  • Factory-sponsored Chevys (11%, 4 Vote(s))
  • Fords (11%, 4 Vote(s))
  • Hendrick Motorsports will be out of business (5%, 2 Vote(s))
  • Dodges (either factory-sponsored or non-factory-sponsored) (3%, 1 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 38

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Government Motors to axe Pontiac, save the unions

by @ 7:32. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

In case you missed all the news about General Government Motors yesterday, let’s recap (courtesy Investor’s Business Daily):

  • GM will drop Pontiac as a brand, 8,000 jobs, and 2,600 dealerships by next year. I suppose the good news is the performance division won’t be stuck trying to sell the Pelosi GTxi SS/Rt Sport Edition (© Iowahawk)
  • GM is asking bondholders who hold $27 billion in GM debt to swap their notes for stock to the tune of 225 shares per $1,000 owed, or $4.44 per share. That is just over twice what the stock is trading at now, which represents something less than 50 cents on the dollar for the bondholders, and if math I’ve seen elsewhere is right, would represent roughly 10% of the stock.
  • GM wants the United States Treasury to take a majority of common stock in exchange for forgiving $10 billion in debt. Also, they want the UAW to take 39% of the common stock in lieu of cash for $10 billion in retiree health care payments.

That leaves the current stockholders with 1% of the company. If you’re confused, join the club headed by Larry Kudlow.

Jimmie over at The Sundries Shack explains that it is all payback. He pulled a post from QandO from the memory vault that unspun a Los Angeles Times article attempting to pin the Congressional failure of the Big 3 UAW bailout on those eeeeeeeeeeevil Republicans. Not only have contributions from the UAW dwarfed those from the Big Three over the last 4 election cycles, and not only have those UAW contributions gone to the Democrats by a 99-1 ratio over each of those 4 cycles, but the Big Three donated mostly to Democrats last time around.

One more thing; the editorial gang at IBD noted that the UAW Jobs Bank, unlike the power of current GM stockholders and the value of the debt held by GM’s creditors, is going nowhere.

Revisions/extensions (7:51 am 4/28/2009) – Let’s do some math, using the assumption that the $10 billion-for-39%-of-the-common-stock the UAW is getting is a pure 1-1 deal. Of course, it is a very dangerous assumption because the market capitalization of GM is only $1.25 billion. That would put the new “market capitalization” at a tick below $25.65 billion. Assuming things don’t crater at the “new” GM (do remember, however, that assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups), we can use that to determine how badly the bondholders and stockholders get the shaft here:

– Ignoring the effect of the remainder of the loans, the $10 billion the government will spend to run General Government Motors would be worth $12.82 billion. Of course, there’s the “slight” matter of paying back the other $17 billion that GM is borowing/wants to borrow.
– The $27 billion the bondholders would pay to get 10% of GM would turn into a $2.56 billion “investment”. That’s a haircut of over 90%.
– The $1.25 billion the market has invested in GM suddenly turns into $256 million, or a haircut of just under 80%.

If I were one of the bondholders, I’d hold out for bankruptcy. That notes-for-stock plan won’t happen unless almost all of the bondholders agree.

R&E part 2 (10:12 am 4/28/2009) – Ed Morrissey has more on this effect.

There’s also a couple questions I don’t really want to consider because they are just too ugly:

– Who is going to buy the UAW 39% to convert those shares into cash? Do remember that the 39% is taking the place of $10 billion that was supposed to go into the retiree health fund, and I doubt that the dividends will make up for that lost cash.
– What happens when (not if) the market decides that Government Motors isn’t worth $25.65 billion?

R&E part 3 (10:38 am 4/28/2009) – The Washington Post has a few more details:

– The Obama administration is claiming they won’t use their majority position to run the company. Of course, when they had but 35% of the debt, they demanded the firing of former CEO Rick Wagoner and a reconstituting of the board of directors. As Jim Geraghty says, “All of Barack Obama’s statements come with an expiration date. All of them.”

– Related to that control, it was the Treasury that formally limited the bondholders to 10% in the new company.

– While GM bonds are currently trading in the $0.08-$0.13 on the dollar range, financial experts are expecting a return of 0%-5% for bondholders who take shares of common stock. That goes to the questions I had earlier, because that would represent a halving of the nominal “market cap” based on the UAW obligation-for-stock deal.

April 20, 2009

There’s no way out of TARP, parts 3-5

by @ 11:33. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Those of us who at a minimum had severe reservations about TARP and at a maximum opposed it are being proven right about our concerns. Where, oh where to begin.

I’ll start with the news that I first heard Saturday and posted through the Emergency Blogging System now that I found a link – Bloomberg reports that the Treasury will be hanging onto their stock warrants after the TARP loans are repaid and the prefered stock the Treasury received as part of the package is bought back, only releasing the warrants after a further negotiated settlement.

Item #2 – Fox Business reports that Treasury officials are considering converting the the aforementioned prefered stock into common stock, complete with voting rights. In several instances, that would make the government the largest voting shareholder.

Item #3 (H/T – Legal Insurrection) – The Financial Times reports that repayment would be accepted only if it were in the “national economic interest”. That’s right; banks that have the money to pay back the loans and pass the “stress test” may not be allowed to pay back the government.

I’m just waiting for the booming voice that is in the Grand Finale of Rush’s “2112” to announce, “Attention all banks of the United States of America. We have assumed control. We have assumed control. We have assumed control.”

April 15, 2009

There’s no way out of TARP, part II

by @ 8:15. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday, in the wake of its $1.8 billion first-quarter profit, that it was looking to have a stock offering of $5 billion in order to repay its $10 billion loan. Tuesday, a rift developed between Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) and the Obama administration, as the former welcomed the repayment development. The administration, on the other hand, claims to want to not “stigmatize” those still on the TARP.

As a guest on “Your World with Neil Cavuto” pointed out yesterday, the more-likely reason is the Obama adminstration would rather keep control. After all, he who doles out the gold makes the rules.

There’s no way out of TARP

by @ 7:57. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

The comments timed out back at Sister Toldjah, so I’m bringing the entire post here and moving it to the top. The placeholder I had up since April 6 is below the fold.

(H/T – Lawhawk)

Back at my regular home, both my co-blogger Shoebox and I have been monitoring attempts, some successful, others not, by banks to get out from under the Troubled Assets Relief Program. In today’s Wall Street Journal, Stuart Varney relates the story of a larger bank that was forced to take TARP money:

Here’s a true story first reported by my Fox News colleague Andrew Napolitano (with the names and some details obscured to prevent retaliation). Under the Bush team a prominent and profitable bank, under threat of a damaging public audit, was forced to accept less than $1 billion of TARP money. The government insisted on buying a new class of preferred stock which gave it a tiny, minority position. The money flowed to the bank. Arguably, back then, the Bush administration was acting for purely economic reasons. It wanted to recapitalize the banks to halt a financial panic.

Fast forward to today, and that same bank is begging to give the money back. The chairman offers to write a check, now, with interest. He’s been sitting on the cash for months and has felt the dead hand of government threatening to run his business and dictate pay scales. He sees the writing on the wall and he wants out. But the Obama team says no, since unlike the smaller banks that gave their TARP money back, this bank is far more prominent. The bank has also been threatened with “adverse” consequences if its chairman persists. That’s politics talking, not economics.

Why can’t this bank do what some tiny banks that received TARP money have done? Varney answer that with three words – “Control. Direct. Command.” He points to the Pay for Performance Act, which many have seen as merely a ceiling on pay at any company that has so much as a dime of TARP money. Given the Democrats’ support for a “living wage”, I see that as a vehicle for raising the minimum wage by means other than legislation. After all, if the biggest banks are forced to pay a large sum of money for entry-level tellers, that will force the smaller banks and other businesses that offer entry-level jobs to follow suit.

(more…)

March 30, 2009

Elite Eight reasons Obama fired Rick Wagoner from GM

by @ 7:26. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

In case you’ve been under a rock, the nationalization of the auto industry continues unabated as the Obama administration forced out Rick Wagoner as CEO of General Motors. I snatched the following reasons for that ouster out of the ether:

8. Obama wanted to be the official car company of the official team of HenCAR.

7. Queen was right; he wants it all and he wants it now.

6. Maybe the Swedes will listen to the Feds better than they listened to Wagoner.

5. Not enough kickbacks to the more-liberal half of the bipartisan Party-In-Government under Wagoner.

4. The GM plan was insufficiently French.

3. Obama liked The Beast so much, he decided to buy seize the company.

2. GM refused to make the Pelosi GTxi SS/Rt Sport Edition (© Iowahawk, and don’t forget it)

1. Only government can be allowed to not have a plan.

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