(H/T – Asian Badger)
Forbes publisher Rich Karlgaard notes something missing from the ingredients that are coming together for economic recovery – CEO confidence. Quoting Rich
The Fed has done its job. (Maybe too well, but that’s another story for another day.) Consumer sentiment and spending have bounced back. The headwinds that remain have less to do with bank stress tests and more to do with CEO mood. The Business Roundtable, which represents big business, reported “record low” CEO confidence in April:
–71% of CEOs plan more layoffs in the next six months.
–Most see declines in capital spending.
–The CEO Economic Outlook Index was negative for the first time.
Why is that so? History provides a guide (again quoting Rich):
In her book The Forgotten Man, Amity Shlaes wrote that the 1937–38 “depression within the Depression” occurred when capital went on strike. President Roosevelt’s willingness to “try anything” (including retroactive taxation, laws against discount pricing and an attempt at packing the Supreme Court) had businesses and their backers so confused over FDR’s rules that they simply withdrew.
This is the risk of President Obama’s willingness to “do what it takes.” Those words sound positive and action-oriented. They really mean “anything can happen.” The tearing up of legal contracts? That can happen. Limits to salary and travel? That can happen. Bullying by the Environmental Protection Agency? That can happen. Nationalization of General Motors and Citigroup? That can happen. Nobody knows for sure what will happen. Government is sorting it out day by day.
There are two things that can happen with a lack of investment from the CEOs and, as Dad29 points out in the comments over at Asian Badger, the corporate bond market, and neither of them are good: increased unemployment as business continue to shed workers, and increased inflation as more money (in this case, caused by an extremely loose Fed bolstered by consumer confidence) chases fewer goods (caused by a lack of capital investment). As they say, those who don’t remember history (or willfully ignore its painful lessons),….
