It seems the Democrats got to 57 seats (with Bernard Sanders and Joe Lieberman caucusing with them, at least), and things are too close to call in Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia.
At last count, Republican Saxby Chambliss was under the 50%+1 requirement to avoid a December 2nd runoff against his Democratic challenger, Jim Martin. There are, however, 42 precincts yet to report, and if each precinct reports like the remainder of the remainder of the county it’s a part of reported, Chambliss should reach the majority he needs to avoid that runoff. Still, I can’t guarantee that will happen, and we may have to work to save Chambliss.
There will be an automatic recount in Minnesota between Republican Norm Coleman and his Democratic challenger, Al Franken. Unofficially, with all precincts reporting, Coleman was ahead by 221 votes. There were 2,340 unspecified write-ins, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State, so that may well flip the other way upon a recount.
Finally, there’s Alaska. The first item is that Republican Ted Stevens is leading his Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, by 3,257 votes. However, there are 62,953 early and absentee ballots yet to be counted, and another 18,271 ballots that are in question.
Even if Stevens wins, there is the question of whether he will be seated, and if seated, whether he will be expelled because of his conviction on corruption charges. I do not know what the threshhold is for the Senate to deny seating a member, but I do know the only way to remove a member once seated is by 2/3rds voting to expel that member. If he is either not seated in or expelled from the 111th Congress, there will be a special election within 60 and 90 days of that date (“thank” you Frank and Lisa Murkowski), and I doubt the Republicans would be able to hold onto that seat.
Of course, if the Dems can’t get to 60 by ousting him and getting a Dem in his place (or they’re already at 60 without Lieberman), I fully anticipate them seating him and using procedural rules to keep him on the rolls until 2010 in order to use him as a weapon against the GOP. They’ll likely get away with it; after all, they parlayed the credit crisis they caused into the clean sweep.
There is a further complication; there are a number of Republican Senators who serve in states with a Democratic governor with the power to fill vacancies in the Senate until at least the 2010 elections, including several who serve in states that haven’t otherwise voted for a Republican lately. Notably, and gratefully, this does not include John McCain; Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano is required by law to appoint another Republican to fill his seat should he leave. In Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson made a career out of giving state Senate Democrats plum jobs outside of the Senate in order to create a Republican majority out of thin air; I can’t put it past Barack Obama to do the same to create a filibuster-proof Democratic majority (or to do so without the troublesome presence of Lieberman in the caucus), and there are a couple of Senators who I don’t believe would feel particularly bound to prevent that filibuster-proof Dem majority.
You’re thinking of just the Dems here. How likely do you see the possibility of the more moderate/liberal Republicans voting for cloture along with the Dems, say Collins or Snowe? Would they stick with the Republicans in most cases, some cases, or no cases?
They’re less-reliable at closing down debate than a full-blooded ‘Rat, which is why I also tossed in the possibility of trying to get to 60 without Lieberman.
Funny you should mention Snowe and Collins; they’re the two most likely to take a Thompson Special out of the Senate. True, Collins just won re-election, but they’re the only two Republicans in Maine politics.
If Stevens does win re-election & is removed forcing a special election a possible sure way to hold the seat is convince Palin to run for the seat.
I honestly don’t know about that. The Murkowski two-step is still fresh in the minds of Alaskans; in fact, it was because of that two-step that there would be a fast election to fill a Senate vacancy.