According to this article from the AP there’s no reason to pay any attention to the hurricane forecast for the coming year:
It’s a lot like Groundhog Day – and the results are worth just about as much.
is the way the AP views the forecasts.
In fact, it’s not just the AP who doesn’t think there’s much value in them:
The AP contacted the emergency management agency in every coastal state from Texas to Maine and asked whether these seasonal forecasts play any role in their preparations for the hurricane season. Their response was unanimous: They’re a great way to get people thinking about the upcoming season, but that’s about it.
The good news is that the forecasters have developed a bit of humility about their work:
“Honestly, I think people get a lot more excited about it than I do in terms of what its usefulness is,” says CSU scientist Phil Klotzbach, who has largely taken over the hurricane work of Gray, now semiretired.
In fact, the forecasters are starting to use disclaimers and warnings that are longer than the ones on a pack of cigarettes:
NC State’s Lian Xie says in a boldface disclaimer in his 2008 forecast: “Results presented herein are for scientific information exchange only … Users are at their own risk for using the forecasts in any decision making.”
(Emphasis mine.)
The article goes on to describe the process used to develop the forecasts:
Hurricane-prediction researchers are like chefs tinkering with a recipe for the same dish, and working from the same list of ingredients: In this case, decades worth of data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Studying past seasons, scientists look for patterns that might explain why one year was more active than another. Teams have developed computer models that emphasize different conditions – everything from ocean salinity and rainfall amounts over West Africa to sunspot cycles and the influences of the Pacific warm-water current known as El Nino.
(Again, emphasis mine.)
Huh? What? The hurricane forecasters are using “decades worth of data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction! Isn’t that some of the same data that has been used to develop the “world is coming to an end” predictions resulting from global warming? And yet, hurricane forecasters say that based on their data “users are at their own risk for using the forecasts for any decision making!”
This week the Senate is debating Warner-Liberman. The bill proposes implementing a cap and trade system to reduce our all but certain planet suicide as a result of global warming. Amongst other things, the Heritage Foundation has determined that this bill will:
- Increase average family utilities by $467/year
- Take 500,000 to 1,000,000 jobs out of the economy by 2030
- Reduce GDP by $1.7 to $4.8 trillion by 2030
Hurricane forecasters admit that the results of forecasting using NOAA data should be used with healthy skeptisim and not as fact. Yet both of our Minnesota Senators along with others, are willing to bet the future economic viability of the country on models and data that should be labeled “For Entertainment Purposes Only!”
