The noise of nails being pounded into a coffin should be keeping Mike Huckabee from getting a good nights sleep. Unless all the polls and the Intrade markets are wrong, today’s Potomac primaries should be a clean sweep for McCain. If so, McCain will pick up an additional 119 delegates putting him at 843, just 348 short of locking up the nomination.
But wait! Huckabee is expecting a miracle! He’s said he’s staying in the race until it’s done!
The next series of Republican primaries and delegates at stake are: Wisconsin (40), Ohio (88), Rhode Island (20), Texas (140) and Vermont (17). Unfortunately for Mike, all but Rhode Island are winner take all states. Further, unfortunately for Mike, the only state he’s “close” in is Texas. By “close” I mean he’s trailing by low double digits in the polls. I suspect after today’s whipping a low double digit gap may be something for the Huckabee campaign to aspire to!
Giving mike the benefit of the doubt in RI and saying he gets a split, that still puts McCain at 1148 delegates, 43 short of the lock, by March 4th.
Hucakbee may be able to stave things off until April but why? There’s no way he will get enough delegates to contend for the Pres. spot. I don’t even see how he gets any delegates that makes him a more meaningful choice for VP. He’s either on McCain’s short list already or he isn’t…the remaining primaries aren’t going to change that.
Everybody thinks Huckabee is staying in the race for the VP slot but a rational look at the delegate race just doesn’t support that. Hucakbee is staying in the race for some other reason. Maybe he wants publicity for his recently released book. Maybe he’s gotten used to being in the limelight and just wants to extend his fifteen minutes of fame.
What ever Hucakbee’s reason for staying in the race I’ve got a news flash for him: It’s over!
Mike, between now and whatever date the official tally moves over the magic number of 1,191, all you’re doing is giving the Rats more talking points to use in the general election. We don’t need that. Mike, if you really care about defeating the Rats in November than step aside. We need to figure out what to do with McCain and you’re staying in the race just muddies that up. After the results of today’s primaries come out, meet the cameras with the smile and optimism that are your trademarks and as part of your concession speech tell folks that you’ve suspended your campaign; that today is the first day of the rest of your life!
Update: Intrade predictions swung hard to Huckabee this afternoon with some buys in the 60%+ of winning VA. Regardless, it may only change the timing of, not the resulting outcome.
I’ll be on the Wisconsin portion of that momentarily. It follows the California model of Congressional-district winner-take-all for the 24 (3 x 8 districts) district-level delegates, plus statewide WTA for the other 16.
I don’t see Huck taking a single district here. We’re too far north of the Mason-Dixon line for the Southern Baptist schtick to work.