No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

December 24, 2011

Virginia’s Presidential primary a 2-way race between Romney and Paul

by @ 10:20. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

In case you were in a cave this week, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann failed to turn in any signatures to get on Virginia’s March 6 Presidential primary ballot, while Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich had enough of their under-12,000 signatures (11,911 and 11,050 respectively) signatures invalidated by the Republican Party of Virginia that they too missed the 10,000 (with at least 400 from each of the 11 Congressional districts).

That reminds me of Rep. John Nygren’s (R-Marinette) epic failure to get onto the recall ballot for the right to face Sen. Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay). He turned in over 440 signatures, saw that number reduced to 424 on the Government Accountability Board’s initial review, and saw the GAB, at the urging of the Democrat Party of Wisconsin, strike another 26 to leave him 2 short.

For those of you wondering whether the 10,000 threshhold is so strenuous, nobody but the best-funded candidates can make the grade, do note tha the candidates could start collecting signatures back on July 1, and thus had over 5 1/2 months to get to 10,000. Further, there were 6 candidates on the 2008 Republican and 6 candidates on the 2008 Democrat Virginia primary ballots, including Dennis Kucinich on the Democrat side.

The kicker is there is no such thing as a write-in candidate in a Virginia primary, which makes the Gingrich campaign’s call for a write-in campaign moot. That is different than Wisconsin, where a write-in candidate can get a spot on the general ballot in a recognized party’s spot (Republican, Democrat and Constituion Parties) if he or she gets 5% of the number that voted in the most-recent gubernatorial election and almost immediately after the primary complies with registration requirements.

The next bits of actual news (barring somebody shoving his or her foot in the mouth, or a successful court challenge from the Perry or Gingrich campaigns) in the Presidential campaign will be on January 3, and there is a Wisconsin component. Not only is that the day of the Iowa caucus, but it is the day the Wisconsin Presidential Preference Selection Committee meets. This group, consisting of the Republican and Democrat party chairs, a national committeeman and national committeewoman from the two parties, the Assembly speaker and minority leader, the Senate president and minority leader, and a chair selected by the 10 aforementioned, will choose who they believe should be on Wisconsin’s primary ballot on April 1.

There is a way for those not chosen by the party bosses to get on the ballot – collect 1,000 nomination signatures from each of the 8 Congressional districts between 1/3 and 1/31.

December 23, 2011

How will you respond?

by @ 8:28. Filed under Miscellaneous, Religion.

In the first two chapters of Luke we read the Christmas story. Included in these chapters is the foretelling of John the Baptist, Mary’s conception and finally the birth of Jesus. Unique to Luke’s telling of the birth of Christ is the inclusion of three angelic visits.

The first visit, as told by Luke, was to the father of John the Baptist, Zechariah. The angel came to tell Zechariah that his wife Elizabeth, would bear a son. Zechariah and Elizabeth were both advanced in years so it was hard for Zechariah to believe that his wife and he would become parents. Zechariah was so incredulous at the thought of becoming a father that he actually argued with the angel:

Zechariah asked the angel, “How can I be sure of this? I am an old man and my wife is well along in years.” Luke 1:18

The third appearance is on the night of Jesus birth. This appearance occurred to shepherds who were working outside of Bethlehem:

8 And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night. 9 An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. 10 But the angel said to them, “Do not be afraid. I bring you good news that will cause great joy for all the people. 11 Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord. 12 This will be a sign to you: You will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger.” Luke 2:8-12

This angelic interaction was characterized by Luke as “terrifying.” If we think about it, it’s not hard to understand why the shepherds may have felt “terror.” Imagine standing out in the country, a long way from any population or roadways. Suddenly, not only does someone appear out of nowhere but that someone has an aura or other appearance around them that makes them look unlike any person you’ve ever seen before. It’s not hard to understand how at least the initial response, might be terror.

The other angelic appearance was to tell Mary that she was going to be the mother of the prophesied Savior:

26 In the sixth month of Elizabeth’s pregnancy, God sent the angel Gabriel to Nazareth, a town in Galilee, 27 to a virgin pledged to be married to a man named Joseph, a descendant of David. The virgin’s name was Mary. 28 The angel went to her and said, “Greetings, you who are highly favored! The Lord is with you.” Luke 1:26-28

Initially, we are told Mary was “troubled” by the Angel’s statements but the visit ends with Mary’s confident statement of trust in God’s provision:

38 “I am the Lord’s servant,” Mary answered. “May your word to me be fulfilled.” Then the angel left her. Luke 1:38

About now you’re asking why you’re reading this and why I’m reprinting Luke for a post.

My Bible study looked through these chapters of Luke over the past few weeks. As we looked through the passages it hit me how different, even though each of the angels were bringing a message directly from God, the reaction to each of the three angelic visits were. The Priest, the person who you could argue should have been most comfortable with the idea of an angel acting on behalf of God, argued with the angel. The Shepherds, arguably the bravest of those visited by the angels, were terrified. The young girl who was just told that she would be pregnant out of wedlock, an offense for which she could have been stoned to death, responded with complete confidence in the Angel’s statement and God’s plan.

As I contemplated these chapters, I thought about how my reactions to God are so much like those of the people visited by angels those many years ago.

There are many times where I argue with God. Oh, I don’t yell or shake my fist. By my actions, my thoughts and words, there are numerous times where I show or indirectly tell God that I’m not happy or satisfied with the plan He has for me. Can’t he move faster, why can’t XXXX happen, I need answers…NOW are all ways that I argue with God.

There are other times where I am terrified of God. Yes, I’m a Christian and yes, I know the saving grace of Jesus. But, regardless of the veneer of “a pretty good life,” I’m a sinner, and as Paul said “… the worst sinner.” I guess it is this recognition that confirms my Christianity but it is also this recognition that at times, leaves me terrified when my faith slips a bit and leaves me exposed to what my future would be without the saving grace of Jesus.

Finally, there are times when I can respond as Mary and say, “May your word to me be fulfilled.” Times when I am at peace and have confidence in the promises God has made to me as a believer. Admittedly, there have not been many of those times as of late. I won’t bore you with the details, let’s just say that a reason to be anxious seems to hide around nearly every corner I have turned the last few months.

Christmas is nearly here; the day when we celebrate the birth of Jesus and the promise of a different life if we believe and take him as our Savior. It’s also the time of the year where most of us spend time thinking about the year. I think about the blessings I’ve had and begin the process of gearing up for the new year.

After looking at the passages I’ve listed and doing some contemplating this past week, I know I have a choice to make as I enter the new year. I can chose the path Zechariah took and continue to argue with God about the things He has allowed in my life or, like the shepherds, I can chose to be terrified of things that don’t fit into my paradigm of how things should work. Or, like Mary, I can CHOOSE to exert my faith more and trust the God who has never left me and has fulfilled every promise He has ever made.

2,000 years ago, Mary made her choice as to how she would respond to God’s calling on her.

This Christmas, as we hear the Christmas story and reflect on our year, each of us will get a chance to choose how we will respond to God’s desire to be in our life.

I know how I will respond.

How will you respond?

December 17, 2011

Double-dipping, Texas-style

by @ 0:28. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

(H/T – Allahpundit)

If you’re in Wisconsin, unless you’ve been in a cave the last several months, you’ve heard of the practice of double-dipping, as various state and local employees “retired” and then returned to state/local employment, sometimes to their old jobs in a pre-planned move a month later, collecting both the salary of the job and the pension. Indeed, the situation has become so far out of control that Rep. Duey Stroebel (R-Saukville) introduced a bill to limit the practice among those who “retire” and subsequently come back to work at least half-time at a position.

According to the Texas Tribune, Texas governor, and candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination, Rick Perry one-upped that back in January. After an official with the Texas Employee Retirement System contacted him to tell him that he was eligible to do the career politican version of the double-dip, telling him that he “would be rather foolosh to not access what (he had) earned”, Perry did so, adding a gross pension payment of $7,698 per month to his $11,083 per month salary as governor.

The pension is being paid out as though Perry was a member of the “employee class”, despite Perry being an elected official for the entirety of his service to the state of Texas and continuing to serve as governor with no “sit-out” period. How? Let’s walk through it:

  • Generally, elected state office-holders can choose to participate in the Texas ERS on the “elected class” track. That gives, upon departure from office (and only as long as one isn’t in a state elected office), a pension equal to the number of years of service (including military service) times 2% of the district judge salary (currently $208.33 1/3 per month), not to exceed 100% of the district judge salary ($10,416.66 per month).
  • Non-elected state office-holders and employees automatically participate in the Texas ERS on the “employee class” track. One can qualify for a pension with no reduction if one is at least 60 years old and one’s age and length of service (including military service) equals or exceeds 80 years. For those who entered the “employee class” track after August 2009, that is the average of the 48 months of highest salary (it used to be 36) times 2.3% times the number of years of service.
  • Elected officials can transfer the entirety of their service (including military service) to the “employee class” track. Since the two tracks are “separate”, one can “retire” as an “employee”, collect a pension as a “retiree”, and still remain in elected office.

While Perry may not have been responsible for the abusive system, he is responsible for fully-participating in the abusive system.

December 15, 2011

Last call before the Iowa Caucus (?) debate drunkblog

by @ 9:38. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

At least promoter/broadcaster Fox News is promising tonight’s debate will be the last one before Iowa begins the delegate selection process. The debate is at 8 pm Central, and we’ll fire it up about 7:45. The 12/27 NewsMax debate, which before moderator/potential third-party candidate Donald Trump dropped out had only two candidates scheduled, is in serious doubt now.

The big news is from Rasmussen, which has the current NotRomney experiencing the almost-inevitable bust after the boom. It has Mitt Romney leading at 23%, up from 20% and second last month, Newt Gingrich at 20%, down from the leading 32%, Ron Paul at 18%, up from 10% and fourth (behind the departed Herman Cain last time), and Rick Perry at 10%, up from 6% and a multi-way tie for fifth.

As always, you’re on your own for liquor; between the bells and the blue-light words you’re going to need it. Shoebox and I will once again be using CoverItLive, so you don’t need to refresh to keep up. Do feel free to comment in the window below; unless we get too many people, once we see you there, we’ll probably auto-approve you (unless we have no clue who you are). If, for some reason, you don’t see the window, you should mash here.

How much down the UAW hole again?

by @ 3:16. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

It’s been a while since I last ran the numbers on the transfer of taxpayer wealth to UA…er, bailout of GM, Chrysler, and their affiliated credit companies. Due partly to the profit turned today by the UAW VEBA on GM’s bankruptcy, and due partly to wild claim from Car Cza…er, Commissar Steven Rattner that the taxpayers will get back all but $14 billion (I think The Right Scoop misquoted from the clip due to an off-camera cough) of the auto-related bailouts, it’s time to once again go through what has and has not been recovered. Thankfully, the Treasury Department has a PDF-ed spreadsheet to help track all the changes between last October’s look and the end of November 2011. Before I do, however, I have to note Zip caught the expiration of yet another Obama statement – that the Treasury would be paid back in full for the auto bailouts.

To review, back in the beginning of October 2010, $65.89 billion of the $72.59 billion spent on old General Motors, new Government Motors, old Chrysler, new Chrysler/UAW Motors/Fiat, Chrysler Financial, and GMAC/Ally (more-correctly called Government Bank), including $0.04 billion in notes taken out by new Chrysler I was previously unaware of, was still outstanding. Since then, the Treasury has recovered:

  • $13.50 billion from the sale of some of its common stock in GM between 11/18/2010 and 11/26/2010, leaving it with a 32.04% stake.
  • $2.14 billion from the early buyback by new GM of all the Series A preferred stock held by the Treasury.
  • $0.11 billion of the $0.99 billion in loans that remained at old GM, paid to the Treasury on 3/31/2011, 4/5/2011 and 5/3/2011 as old GM was liquidated.
  • $5.46 billion from new Chrysler to “fully” extinguish the TARP loans, including the previously-undisclosed notes, on 5/24/2011. However, $3.5 billion of that repayment appears to have come from an Energy Department loan program meant for modernization of assembly plants dedicated toward fuel efficient/”clean” vehicles.
  • $0.56 billion from Fiat for the remaining 6.6% stake (plus the rights to “excessive” proceeds from the sale of the UAW’s share of new Chrysler) the Treasury held in new Chrysler on 7/21/2011.
  • A bit under $0.01 billion ($9.67 million) as the last bit of cash was wrung out of the remains of old Chrysler, credited on 12/29/2010.
  • $2.67 billion from Ally for the extinguishing of the Trust Preferred Securities held by the Treasury on 3/2/2011.
  • $0.79 billion in dividends on preferred stock in Ally between November 2010 and November 2011.

The $25.24 billion recovered over the past 13 months brings the amount still outstanding from the bailout of the auto industry down to $40.65 billion. The Treasury also converted 110 million of the nearly 229 million perferred shares it held in Ally to 531,850 common shares to give it control of 73.8% of the common shares.

The remaining claims on assets the Treasury holds are:

  • 500,065,254 common shares of new GM. At yesterday’s close of $19.47 per share, the Treasury would get about $9.73 billion (give or take brokerage fees) if they were able to sell their 32.04% stake.
  • $0.88 billion in loans still owed by old GM, which will likely never be recovered.
  • A continuing stake in whatever assets can still be liquidated from old Chrysler, likely to be very minimal.
  • 118,750,000 Series F-2 Preferred shares in Ally Financial, which if Ally does not pay $5.94 billion plus any outstanding dividend (9% annual dividend, or $0.53 billion per year) to extinguish the preferred shares, will be converted to, at the present value, 513,000 common shares in Ally at the end of 2016. The dividend through the end of 2016 would net the Treasury $2.67 billion.
  • 981,971 common shares in Ally, which represents 73.8% of the outstanding common shares in the privately-held company.

Last year’s estimate of $17 billion down the UAW hole once all the dust settles still seems quite operative, assuming the government is willing to let go of both GM and Ally. If it’s not willing to let its seizures go, then far more money will have gone down the UAW hole.

Let’s compare that to the UAW take. I previously covered the all-but-guaranteed $28.39 billion in post-bankruptcy payments from GM (not counting anything from the sale of the UAW’s stock in GM, currently worth $3.12 billion) on $20.36 billion in pre-bankruptcy liabilities from GM the UAW VEBA will get, and except for the dividend payments that have now made UAW’s profit official, nothing has changed. I hadn’t covered the UAW’s recovery schedule of the $10.5 billion owed it by old Chrysler as, up until earlier this year, it had not fulfilled its (voluntary) promise to file reports with the SEC. Now that it is filing the reports, that can be tracked.

Much like it did from GM, the UAW received the cash set aside by old Chrysler pre-bankruptcy for the VEBA. In this case, it was about $1.5 billion. For the remaining $9 billion in unsecured claims against old Chrysler for its VEBA, the UAW received what is currently a 44.7% stake in new Chrysler (after various options exercised by Fiat diluted its initial 67.7% stake) and a $4.59 billion unsecured note carrying an effective 9% annual interest rate and maturing in July 2023. While the repayment schedule is back-loaded, payments did begin in 2010, with a $315 million payment in 2010 and a $300 million payment in 2011. Assuming all the payments are made, the UAW will get $9.16 billion.

That does not include any money it might get from the liquidation of its stake in new Chrysler. That is limited to $4.25 billion (plus 9% compounded annually starting from 2010, or about $5.05 billion if Chrysler goes public in January 2012 and the UAW sells its entire stake) with any excess going to Fiat after Fiat bought the Treasury’s rights to that excess for $60 million and the Canadian government’s rights to that excess for $15 million. Fiat also holds a call option to buy up to 40% of the original UAW stake between mid-2012 and mid-2016 for, depending on whether Chrysler has gone public, either the going stock price or a formula.

December 9, 2011

Hey Hey Ho Ho

by @ 14:44. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

Another debate is about to go!

Join us, sober or drunk. This one is sure to be a lot of fun!

December 8, 2011

Open Thread Thursday – It’s been too long

by @ 9:48. Filed under Open Thread Thursday.

I’m trying to get something up here every day, but I’m back to the malaise I’ve had the last month, along with a dying throat. Fortunately, it’s Thursday, so I can simply declare an Open Thread Thursday. I need a hot toddy, bartender…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzP0GCILr7c[/youtube]

In case you forgot what to do while listening to the Blues Brothers, share links to some kick-ass stories in the comments.

December 7, 2011

Does December 7, 1941 still live in infamy?

by @ 8:24. Filed under History.

70 years ago today, the Imperial Japanese Navy attacked Pearl Harbor, plunging the United States fully into World War II. The following day, President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared that it would live in infamy. The Washington Times interviewed some of the survivors of the attack (H/T – Ed Morrissey)

The sad news is that the survivors, just like the larger group of World War II veterans, are dying due to old age, and the memories and lessons of that day and that war are in large part being lost. From the Times article:

Since the 1950s, Mr. Davis and others have kept their legacies alive through the Pearl Harbor Survivors Association, but the group will disband at the end of the year. Its members are nearing 90 years older, and many have serious health problems.

“It was just getting to be too much for them. The youngest survivors are 88 years old,” said Carol Gladys, the daughter of a Pearl Harbor survivor and secretary of Sons and Daughters, Pearl Harbor Survivors Inc. It’s been in existence since the 1970s, but now will play a much larger role in ensuring the stories aren’t forgotten.

“I think we have a lot of work ahead of us. You walk up to a lot of younger people and ask them what the USS Arizona was, and they have no idea,” Ms. Gladys said. “The younger generation, they have no idea what happened in Hawaii.”

Another indication of that is what is featured, or more-properly, not featured, on the front pages of the three major search engines. Much like what was noted two years ago, neither Google nor Yahoo did anything special for today. Indeed, nothing related to Pearl Harbor is listed among the “trending now” topics on Yahoo as of 8:20 am CDT. Fortunately, Bing picked up the slack, featuring the USS Arizona Memorial.

Revisions/extensions (12:06 pm 12/7/2011) – Allan Bourdius recognizes the sixteen who earned the Medal of Honor 70 years ago today.

December 6, 2011

The Solis “Miracle” – less than what was claimed

by @ 11:22. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

The Right Scoop flagged me to an interview Labor Secretary Hilda Solis did on The Bill Press Show yesterday (or at least it was posted yesterday) and asked whether I could look into a few claims she made at the beginning of the interview:

  • Over the last 22 months, the economy added 3 million private-sector jobs.
  • Over the last 21 months, the average private-sector job gain was around 160 thousand.
  • Both numbers were significanly better than the George W. Bush record.

It took a bit longer than I thought because I wanted to be a lot more thorough than the Labor Secretary, but it isn’t exactly all that Solis claims.

The first bit is the closest to the truth. Using the Current Establishment Survey (the part of the jobs report that differentiates between the non-farm private-sector jobs and the government jobs), the economy did gain 2,926,000 jobs between January 2010 and November 2011. While it is a bit of a stretch (like Ford’s stretch of the 302 V-8 into “5.0L”), it’s close enough for government work.

Unfortunately, the 21-month recovery in private-sector jobs, from February 2010 to November 2011, saw an average gain of 140,333 jobs per month. I don’t call overestimating reality by over 14% close, especially when the CES covers roughly a third of all workers (or somewhere just north of 40 million).

The last item on the list requires a rather lenghty bit of explanation. I could go the very-cheap route and point out that for the entirety of the Obama administration (starting with the change from January 2009 to February 2009 as the January surveys are taken before the Presidential inauguration), the private sector lost an average of 37,120 jobs per month, while over the 8 years of the Bush administration (again starting with the January 2001-February 2001 change and ending with the December 2008-January 2009 change), the private sector lost just an average of 6,800 jobs per month despite a full recession and 2/3rds of a second. That would be way too easy, however.

I could also compare the first 21-month stretch of unbroken private-sector job growth under Bush to the current streak under Obama (average of +152,860 jobs/month to +140,333 jobs/month), but Bush’s streak began far later than Obama’s. In fact, it was exactly one year later into the recovery, August 2003, that the jobs market stopped producing CES private-sector losses.

Using the CES numbers, the private sector added 705,000 jobs between July 2002 and April 2004, for an average of +33,570 per month. The private sector added 2,947,000 jobs between February 2010 and November 2011, for the aforementioned average of +140,333 per month. However, if the 22-month time frame is narrowed down to the last 6 months, the Obama recovery (May 2011-November 2011) lags behind the Bush recovery (October 2003-April 2004), with an average of +132,830 per month compared to an average of +144,500 per month.

The bad news is the CES, while it covers an estimated 1/3rd of the labor force, double-counts those who hold multiple jobs and pretty much misses those who are either self-employed or working at a start-up. The Current Population Survey, though it is far smaller than the CES because it covers “only” 60,000 people each month, is still an order of magnitude bigger than your typical political survey, counts multiple job-holders only once and covers the portion of the survey who are self-employed.

The CPS chart that comes closest to the non-farm private payroll CES is the private wage-and-salaried non-farm workers chart. Between July 2002 and April 2004, 1,987,000 more people found private-sector wage/salaried work (an average of +94,620 per month), while between February 2010 and November 2011, 3,103,000 more people found private-sector work (an average of +147,760 per month).

However, that still doesn’t include the self-employed. While 299,000 more people were self-employed between July 2002 and April 2004, 364,000 fewer people were self-employed between February 2010 and November 2011.

Adding the two together nets 2,286,000 more people either self-employed or employed by a private entity between July 2002 and April 2004 (an average of +108,860 per month), and 2,739,000 more people either self-employed or employed by a private entity between February 2010 and November 2011 (an average of +130,430 per month). The same “last-6-month” metric shows the same lag for the Obama recovery – +111,170 self-employed/private employed per month between May 2011 and November 2011, and +132,830 self-employed/private employed per month between October 2003 and April 2004.

November 30, 2011

Must See Wednesday – Bill Whittle explains the fundamental difference between the Tea Party Movement and the Occupy Movement

by @ 15:26. Tags:
Filed under Politics - National.

Bill Whittle just destroys the myth that there is anything in common between the Tea Party Movement and the Occupy Movement in 5:50…

I could try to summarize it, but all I would be doing is messing with near-perfection.

November 27, 2011

At what point is it a pattern? – Burning Volt edition

by @ 9:00. Filed under Business.

Last week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration attempted to replicate the Volt Flambe by crash-testing 3 Volt battery packs. They were successful:

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Friday that three Volt battery packs were crash-tested last week. In one instance, the battery caught fire afterward, and in another the battery emitted smoke and sparks.

In response, the NHTSA has opened a formal investigation. Paging Ralph Nader. Unlike your smear of the Chevrolet Corvair, you could honestly write “Unsafe At Any Speed” about the Pin…er, Volt.

November 26, 2011

GOP members of the Super Committee – We were willing to give the Dems 89% of the tax revenues, and 91% of the tax hikes, they wanted

by @ 22:48. Filed under Budget Chop, Politics - National, Taxes.

In an editorial in the Washington Post, the Republican members of the failed Super Committee ripped the Democrats for insisting on no less than $1,000,000,000,000 in additional taxes between FY2012 and FY2021 versus the Congressional Budget Office extended-baseline between 2012 and 2021. They also admitted that the $250,000,000,000 in additional taxes versus the CBO extended-baseline proposed by Sen. Pat Toomey (Real Disappointment-Pennsylvania) was but half of the additional tax increase they were willing to give the Democrats.

Before I get to the details of that, however, I do have to deal with the disingenuous part of the op-ed:

Why do Republicans believe our proposal is preferable to the automatic 2013 rate increases? Apart from the fact that our economy could not withstand the almost $4 trillion tax increase, it would directly and adversely affect small-business investment decisions. Business decisions are highly sensitive to the rates of the capital gains, dividends and death tax, as well as marginal tax rates. That’s why Republicans would leave them alone and raise revenue instead by limiting personal itemized deductions and credits that have much less impact on investment decisions by small-business owners.

That $3,949,000,000,000 tax increase from not extending the parts of current tax policy the Republicans wanted extended, as well as another $761,000,000,000 tax increase from expiring/expired tax policy the GOP didn’t mind seeing expire, was already baked into the “debt deal” that created the Super Committee. While the method of getting the $39,221,000,000,000 in revenue the CBO August 2011 baseline anticipates between FY2012 and FY2021 was not specified in the “debt deal”, the fact that the CBO extended-baseline is the starting point means that the end result, and its attendant $4,710,000,000,000 tax increase, has been stipulated to by anybody talking about “additional” tax revenues.

As for the “much less impact”, that’s a bunch of Bravo Sierra. The “rich” and “near-rich” aren’t exactly dumb; they would have quickly realized that what the federal government put in their right pocket, they vacuumed out the left at a faster rate, and the non-profits who depend on donations from the “rich” and “near-rich” would have been hit hardest.

Now to the other third of the GOP betrayal on taxes:

The essence of the plan was to dramatically reduce the deductions and credits wealthier taxpayers can claim to reduce their tax liability. That would generate enough revenue to both permanently reduce marginal rates for all taxpayers and provide more than $250 billion for deficit reduction. Added to other receipts, taxes and fees, the Republican plan amounted to more than $500 billion in deficit reduction revenue and $900 billion in spending reductions.

In order for an amount to be counted as “deficit reduction revenue”, it would have to make the FY2012-FY2021 revenue number larger than $39,221,000,000,000. Fortunately, since the resulting reduction in debt service is also scored for the purposes of debt reduction, any tax hike is slightly less than the amount of deficit reduction. While I haven’t seen any actual scoring of the final GOP plan, assuming it would raise taxes equally each year on an inflation-adusted basis, it would need to result in roughly $478,000,000,000 in new taxes beyond what was already baked in.

That brought the total amount of taxes the Republicans were willing to offer to $39,699,000,000,000, a $5,188,000,000,000 increase from extending current policy, and (using static analysis) a tax take of 20.9% of GDP in FY2020 (where it would be in FY2021 with no tax-code changes and no economic collapse) and 21.1% of GDP in 2021, both new national records. That, however, was not enough for the Democrats. From the op-ed one last time:

At no time in the negotiations did the Democratic committee members drop their insistence that, one way or the other, any deal had to include a trillion dollars in new taxes.

Adding $1,000,000,000,000 to the CBO extended-baseline revenue would bring taxes to $40,221,000,000,000, a $5,710,000,000,000 increase from extending current policy. Assuming the economy doesn’t enter a recession like it has the 5 times since World War II that the federal tax take broached the 19% GDP barrier, the new national record of 20.9% GDP would have been reached in FY2017, and reset every year thereafter with it hitting 21.3% GDP in FY2021.

As for the percentages in the title, the GOP offered up just shy of 89.5% of the tax revenues and, compared to extending current tax policy, 90.9% of the tax increases, the Democrats demanded. Indeed, the GOP continued its decade-long assault on the near-rich by targeting them and only them for removal of tax deductions while holding the poor essentially harmless, and the ‘Rats couldn’t hear them over Queen’s “I Want It All”.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pm4fQRl72k[/youtube]

Revisions/extensions (8:42 am 11/28/2011) – Emperor Misha links and has a kick-ass close:

So yeah, the collapse of the StuporCommittee was really the best thing that could have happened and, furthermore, it is pretty clear to us that there is a LOT more housecleaning that needs to be done in the GOP next year.

November 24, 2011

The annual Egg Turkey Day Proclamation – 2011 Edition

by @ 11:49. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Whereas the turkey is the offical bird of Thanksgiving, and

Whereas turkey is a delicious meat, and

Whereas turkey breast contains more protein and less fat and sodium than chicken breast,

Now therefore I hereby decree that a nameless, pictureless turkey be given a thorough plucking and a complete basting, and warmed to a sufficient temperature for human consumption, and further decree that turkey be thoroughly enjoyed until all of the meat be eaten.

-steveegg

Now, go eat!

November 19, 2011

The Family Leader “Thanksgiving Family Forum” (or the Not Romney Debate) drunkblog

by @ 15:18. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

Today’s sponsor, The Family Leader, is starting this one a bit early at 4 pm Central. Since there’s no TV coverage, CitizenLink was kind enough to provide a webcast (embedded below for your convenience). As always, we’ll be using CoverItLive, so you don’t have to refresh anything to keep up, and also so you don’t have to reload the embed.

Neither of the Mormons will be part of this one; Romney because he declined, Huntsman because he wasn’t invited. Newt Gingrich has become this week’s Not-Romney flavor, mostly because of his performances in these debates. Let’s see if one of the other also-rans can rise to claim the mantle of Next-In-Line™ for the 2016 campaign (assuming, of course, the absent Next-In-Line™ doesn’t win in just under a year).

November 17, 2011

Thursday Hot Read – Tim Nerenz’ “Bring It”

by @ 1:15. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – Chris)

Dr. Tim Nerenz puts the Democrats’ attempt to re-create the Kingdom of Dane through Recall Madness on its hindquarters:

They are at it again in Wisconsin. The perpetual hissy fit that is the Union Democrat Party in this state has launched its campaign to recall Governor Scott Walker. The rallying cry of Walker’s Republican supporters is “I stand with Scott Walker”.

Well, not me. I don’t stand with Scott Walker.

Nope. I stand for the right to work. I stand against compulsory unionization. I stand for the right of every employee to join a union, and for the equal right of every employee to work free of union impairment. I stand for the right of every union to collect its own dues directly from its members. I stand for the right of every business owner to deal directly with his/her employees or to work through an intermediary as he or she sees fit. I stand for the right of any business to refrain from political activity altogether without being targeted for boycotts by extortionists.

I don’t stand with Scott Walker. Scott Walker stands with me….

The Democrat Party in the state of Wisconsin believes they have a Divine right to rule; perhaps it explains why so many are hostile to real Divinity. It is inconceivable to them that the citizens of this state would have decided to give the Republicans an opportunity to fix what the Democrats could not or would not. It is humiliating to them that their coarse and unrefined rivals achieved in just a few months what they could not do in a decade. Their panic is understandable, but that does not make it actionable for the rest of us.

I can’t say whether or not I would vote to re-elect Scott Walker. If he is to win over libertarians, he has a lot of ground to cover between now and the next election for Governor, which is not until 2014. This recall process is not an election; it is a subversion of an election, and I will not vote to subvert elections. The reasons for or against this recall are irrelevant; every assassin has reasons. This is a contract hit; the motivation is money, and it is the taxpayer who will pay the contract.

Do read it all.

November 16, 2011

$15,033,607,255,920.32

by @ 21:29. Filed under Budget Chop, Politics - National.

Yesterday (yes, yesterday, even though the announcement was today), the gross public debt outstanding crossed the $15 trillion mark. Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI, and my Congresscritter), marked the occassion with a video…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-yVjQzq7W0[/youtube]

From the ABC News story on this (H/T – Allahpundit):

The debt has expanded at an alarming pace, from $7.5 trillion in 2004 and $5.6 trillion in 2000. At the current rate, Debtclock.org reckons that the debt will top $23 trillion in 2015, though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office puts the estimate at $17.6 trillion.

Back in August after a protracted fight, Congress voted to raised the national-debt ceiling by $2.7 trillion to $17 trillion, while requiring $2.7 trillion in deficit reduction by 2021.

It also represents an increase from $10.7 trillion at the end of 2008 and $10.9 trillion from the point Obama signed the FY2009 appropriations back in March 2009.

Point of order; there never was $2.7 trillion in deficit reduction demanded by, or even suggested by, Congress’ passing of the Budget “Control” Act. The Congressional Budget Office scored an initial $895 billion (or if you prefer, $0.895 trillion) of “deficit reduction” (versus a “modified” baseline that assumed a $1 trillion reduction in the spending on the Global War on Terror that everybody else assumed), with an additional $1.2 trillion of “guaranteed” “cuts”. Even if one includes the SuperDuperÜber Committee’s goal of $1.5 trillion of “deficit reduction”, that only brings the total to just under $2.4 trillion. I will note, however, that the CBO assumed a lower interest rate in their August review than they did in March, which combined with other “tecnhical” changes resulted in a $0.329 trillion chop in the projected 10-year deficit.

Speaking of the Budget “Control” Act, here’s the real reason why the “clean” (i.e. no spending limits/no supermajority to raise taxes) “Balanced” Budget Amendment is getting consideration – as long as the amendment is titled “Joint resolution proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States”, the debt ceiling can go up by another $1.5 trillion regardless of what the SuperDuperÜber Committee does (or more-likely, doesn’t do).

November 11, 2011

SEIU siphons Medicaid funds from recipients in Michigan

by @ 17:43. Filed under Health, Politics.

The Washington Examiner explains how Michigan Democrats and the SEIU (though I repeat myself) conspired to make those who accept Meicaid payments to help pay for the health care of their disabled adult children “state employees”, with the requisite $30/month kickba…er, dues payment to the SEIU automatically deducted from the Medicaid payment.

We came quite close to having the same thing happen in Wisconsin. One of the things the Democrats did shortly after they seized control of the Assembly following the 2008 elections (and thus the entirety of the lawmaking apparatus) was ram through union recognition of “independent home care workers”. They came within a defection of the then-Senate Democrat/Majority leader of ratifying said contract.

Crash and burn – Volt edition

by @ 12:26. Filed under Business.

Jalopnik reports that, 3 weeks after a Chevrolet Volt was whacked in a side-impact test by the NHTSA, it burst into flames.

I’ll chalk that up to the impact creating a an electrical short, which would allow the lithium-ion battery pack to heat up to ignition. Seems a high price to pay to get maybe 35 miles on electricity alone (which itself is a 12.5% reduction from the earlier claims).

Revisions/extensions (9:09 am 11/12/2011) – The Detroit Free Press has a few new details (H/T – Hot Air Headlines):

– This was the 20-mph side-impact test, or something you would expect at your local neighborhood roundabout.
– The battery on the Ford Pint…er, Chevy Volt was punctured. The Bloomberg story on this (H/T – Dad29) notes that metal piercing a lithium-ion battery will do exactly what happened, right down to a small puncture resulting in a fire days or weeks later.
– The NHTSA didn’t follow the Government Motors-recommended procedure of fully-discharging the battery…because GM never told the NHTSA about it.

Unlike NBC’s smear of the 1973-1997 Chevrolet/GMC full-sized pickups and their “‘explode-on-contact’ saddlebag” gas tanks, nobody needs explosives to brew up a Volt. They could either take a car to its side at a relatively-low speed or simply charge it up to 110% (yes, there have been fires involving Volts being charged).

Veterans Day 2011

by @ 0:05. Filed under History, Military.

I may have been too silent the last few weeks dealing with and finally (I think) whipping an ugly cold so I could make it to BlogCon, but it’s the 11th of November (or at least it is back in Wisconsin). That means it’s Veterans Day, the day to thank those who served in the armed forces of the United States.

Thank you, vets, for preserving the freedoms we have.

November 9, 2011

CNBC GOP Debate

by @ 18:56. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Why not?

November 6, 2011

If you didn’t set your clocks back, the EBS has a message for you

by @ 8:04. Filed under Miscellaneous.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because Steve forgot to tell you this last night. Unlike the EAS activation set to interrupt Rush Limbaugh later this week, this is not a test.

For those of you in the US (and not in those parts that don’t observe Daylight Saving), Daylight Saving Time ended at 2 am local time. If you have a WordPress blog (whether it is on WordPress.com, a WordPress stand-alone, or WordPress MU – this includes Blogivists and Conservablogs), and you had the time changed for Daylight Savings, you need to change it back to Standard Time (Central UTC -6, Mountain UTC -7, Eastern UTC -5, Pacific UTC -8, and check your clock for other locales). To do so, go into your wp-admin panel, select “Settings”, and under the “General Settings” page that pops up, select the right time zone. Don’t forget to hit “save” when you’re done.

Again, this is not a test. Had this been a test, you wouldn’t have been given official news, instructions or information. This concludes this broadcast of the Emergency Blogging System.

November 5, 2011

Cain/Gingrich Debate

by @ 9:41. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest, Politics - National.

Yah didn’t think we’d miss one of these did you?

Steve and I will be drunk blogging the Lincoln/Douglas style debate tonight. The debate starts at 7 PM central and is covered on CSPAN.

Prior to this week, this debate while interesting, would have been missed by a lot of people due to the LSU/Alabama game. Instead, I think a lot of people will watch to see whether Cain can get back on his game and whether he can go toe to toe with Newt. On the other side, there fair evidence that Newt is “Plan B” for many Cain supporters. This may be Newt’s one chance to kick a leg out of the Cain campaign’s wobbling stool and pick up some momentum.

November 3, 2011

Time for an Adult to be President

by @ 10:51. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest, Politics - National.

I’ve seen numerous blog posts and tweets complaining about the GOP Presidential debates.  Some complain that there are too many and we’re getting the same answers over and over again (did you know Michele Bachmann was a foster mom?).  Some complain that there are too many candidates involved and it dilutes the ability to answer questions.  Yet others complain that either the format or the fact that most of the questioners are from the hard left, puts the candidates at an automatic disadvantage in communicating their positions.

To some extent, all of the gripes about the debates have some validity. However, I think the complaints miss an important point.

One by one as the various candidates have flashed, or surged or gained viability, they’ve gotten scrutiny and vetting that Barack Obama avoided for an entire campaign.

The scrutiny has told us much about these top tier candidates. It’s shown us that Mitt Romney is not a conservative, is unrepentant in his implementation of Romneycare and has had more positions on more issues than John Kerry, who served in Vietnam. If it weren’t for the long tradition of the GOP nominating the “next in line,” Romney would already be a footnote in this campaign.

The scrutiny has shown us that the great anticipation of Rick Perry (I’ll admit, I thought he could be a contender at one point) was all about anticipation and nothing about substance. Perry is probably a very smart guy but he is unable to convey that in any of the debates. Combine this with Perry’s penchant for answering questions from a Texas context rather than an American context and it’s no wonder he’s having a tough time recovering from what should have been some easily recoverable early issues of Gardisil and the tuition break for illegals. I’m beginning to believe that Perry had so many people clamoring for him to enter the race that he thought he didn’t need to work at the campaign. I think he believed he was a shoe in for merely showing up. At least that’s what his on going sputtering suggests to me.

Once Romney and Perry sputtered, attention turned to Herman Cain. Again, in candor, I liked a lot of what I heard from Cain. His business experience clearly comes through as he consistently gives specific, actionable recommendations for many of the issues facing the country. However, like the previous two, a bit of time in the spot light has shown Cain to be lacking in the ability to close the deal.

I like the fact that Cain comes from outside of politics. However, it’s this very issue that is his weak spot. Cain seems unaware of the realities of what it takes to get through a campaign and engage a governmental bureaucracy that will be anything but friendly to change from an outsider. From his numerous “I didn’t say that,” responses, the non denial denial of the alleged harassment claims and subsequent inability to handle the media issue, to his 9-9-9 plan that would require a hurculean effort to move through Congress but is only a transition plan to a flat tax plan, Cain just seems like he’s not ready for big league politics.

My point in this is not to say I won’t vote for any of these 3 gentlemen. In comparison to Obama, any of them would be superior. My point is two fold: First, the debates have given us a chance to see each of these candidates hit first place, get some vetting and see how they react. In this, we have gotten a better sense of how each of them would handle a bare knuckle contest with Barack Obama. Second, I think we all realize that regardless of who we end up nominating, there is no Reagan in the mix. In fact, the best we’re going to get out of this year’s candidate slate is one fairly flawed endorsee.

Given the realities that I’ve noted, I’ve decided that the candidate who will get my support in the primary is Newt Gingrich. Ok, I hear the groans. Come on, honestly, is there a debate that you’ve watched that you didn’t walk away saying something like, “Geez, Newt is the only one that sounds like he knows what he’s doing,” or “I don’t think he can get elected but Newt should be a VP or at least on someone’s cabinet.” I know you I have and I’m betting you have said or thought those things. Yes, Newt is flawed, but show me a candidate who isn’t AND show me a candidate at this point who isn’t SERIOUSLY flawed! Really, you think Mitt isn’t a seriously flawed candidate? Whether any of the allegations against him are true or not, Herman Cain has proven he is not ready to play in the big leagues of professional government mud wrestling. Perry? Puhlease!

My support for Newt is two fold: First, he’s the smartest guy in the group and with nearly no exception, has a policy answer that is conservative (OK, we have to work on his answer to ethanol a bit). Second, for all of Newts character flaws, they’ve already been vetted. Newt has been in the limelight so long I doubt there are any October surprises to let loose on him.

At the end of the day I don’t think it is OK to just beat Obama. Yes, that is the first step but we need to have something more. We don’t need someone who can just beat Obama, we need someone who can fundamentally change what is happening in Washington. We need to dismantle the EPA, reign in or eliminate the Department of Education, defang the Depart of the Interior, so on, so on, so on. I think the only person who has the knowledge of DC workings and the intellect to maneuver through or around them and that is Newt Gingrich. While he may not be your first choice, I’ll bet in your heart of hearts, you know that’s right.

October 29, 2011

Occupy Madison permit non-renewed due to whack jobs

by @ 11:10. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

No, the pun is not intended; The Daily Cardinal reports one of the main reasons the Occupy Madison street-use permit was not renewed was because a number of them were whacking off in public. Indeed, the behavior was so bad that a hotel next to the former occupied site felt the need to escort its employees to and from bus stops.

Another item that Madison officials had an issue with was the lack of restroom facilities. They reportedly are refusing to issue another permit until and unless the Occupiers secure some.

So, what did the Occupiers do? They marched down the street to Olin Terrace, on the shore of Lake Monona. Note the lack of restroom facilities or all-night hours in the city park.

The Isthmus notes that the expired/non-renewed permit wasn’t sought with the entire group’s up twinkles, so I doubt that the move to Olin Terrace has legal blessing.

The other reason for the move can’t exactly be discounted either. Madison’s Freakfest has been known to get quite violent.

Eggs on Da Radio

by @ 8:01. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Pete Da Tech Guy decided to have me on his radio show on WCRN True Talk 830AM this morning. The show starts at 9 am Central, and I’m slated to follow Jimmie Bise at about the bottom of the first hour. Gabriel Malor will also be on. The big thing Pete and I will talk about is the recall fatigue felt by just about everybody without a D behind their name.

Tune in.

Revisions/extensions (4:44 pm 10/31/2011) – The podcast is up.

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