No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Elections' Category

July 21, 2009

Hey, GOP, Are You Taking Note?

Census: Voter Turnout in 2008 Lowest in 12 8 Years

For all the attention generated by Barack Obama’s candidacy, the share of eligible voters who actually cast ballots in November declined for the first time in a dozen years. The reason: Older whites with little interest in backing either Barack Obama or John McCain stayed home.

The decline in percentage turnout was the first in a presidential election since 1996. At that time, voter participation fell to 58.4 percent — the lowest in decades — as Democrat Bill Clinton won an easy re-election over Republican Bob Dole amid a strong economy.

Class, what did we learn?

1.  Give us “the next guy in line” again and we’ll sit out again!

2.  Give us someone who looks no different than a Democrat on many issues and we’ll sit out again

Oh and:

Minnesota and the District of Columbia had the highest turnout, each with 75 percent.

3.  If you have a crappy GOP candidate, even if we don’t sit out we won’t vote for them.

Revisions/extensions (8:12 am 7/21/2009; steveegg) – Newsmax didn’t exactly fact-check the numbers, which caused the error struck through above. According to the Census Bureau, the 2000 turnout percentage was lower than 2008’s. It still is, however, the first drop in voter turnout percentage since 1996.

Related to that, I’m sifting through the Census Bureau’s turnout numbers going back to 1980.

April 8, 2009

Money does buy elections

by @ 7:39. Filed under Elections, Politics - Wisconsin.

I’ve slightly calmed down with a fitful night’s sleep, and put up a different angle to yesterday’s election over at Sister Toldjah. Once again, I’ll direct you over there until the comments shut down. Until then, mull over this closer:

Do not mistake this for a call for public financing of elections, or for limitations on speech. Instead, it is a wakeup call for the right. The left is all-too-willing to buy elections, and we need to participate in the battle.

April 6, 2009

NRE recommendations, 2009 spring general election edition

I haven’t been paying nearly enough blog attention to this election. The robo-calls that have just started to come in like the snow that was supposed to be here yesterday have reminded me that the spring general election is tomorrow between 7 am and 8 pm. I may as well fire off my recommendations:

State SuperintendentRose Fernandez. Education in Wisconsin needs an outside-the-box perspective, and who better than someone heavily involved with “virtual” schools? Fernandez recognizes that no one schooling solution works for every student, and that, outside merit pay, money is not the answer. Her opponent, Tony Evers, does have a lifetime of experience in the publicc-school structure. Sometimes, that can be a good thing; however, it usually, and in this case, is not. Evers is wedded to the idea that more money, especially more money to WEAC, is the answer.

State Supreme CourtJudge Randy Koschnick. This one is quite simple. Judge Koschnick’s opponent, Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson, is so liberal that even Bill Clinton could not nominate her for the United States Supreme Court. Justice Abrahamson simply went even further to the left since then.

Milwaukee County Circuit Court, Branch 15Daniel Gabler. He and opponent J.D. Watts have engaged in a “spirited” campaign (identifiable by the local deciders’ focus on only one side of said “spirit”). Both have attempted to reach out to local conservatives; however, Watts’ attempt to justify oral sex as not harmful, especially without offering what the judge in the case deemed any real basis belies that effort.

Oak Creek Mayor – I’ve tossed this one around quite a bit. I was quite disappointed when Mark Verhalen didn’t make it out of the primary, and almost as disappointed with his decision to press on in a write-in campaign. I see the two candidates on the ballot, Dick Bolender and Dimity Grabowski, as unsuited for the office; Bolender for his “spend every dime we can get away with” attitude, Grabowski for her general anti-business one. I honestly cannot recommend anybody.

Oak Creek-Franklin School Board – Again, no recommendations. None of the three candidates for the two seats, Thomas Robe, Kathleen Borchardt, or Jim Gilmeister, offer more than empty words on the need to live within the means of those that live in the district.

March 20, 2009

Election-rigging in Kentucky

by @ 12:08. Filed under Politics, Vote Fraud.

(H/T – Sister Toldjah)

The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that 8 people in Clay County, Kentucky, including a then-sitting (and now-senior) circuit judge, the superintendent of schools in Clay County, the county clerk (one of 4 members of the county Board of Elections, along with the sheriff, and representatives from the Republican and Democratic Parties), the Democratic appointed member of said Board of Elections, and the Democratic and Republican election judges in Manchester, Kentucky for the 2002 and 2004 election cycles, were indicted yesterday for buying and corrupting elections between 2002 and 2006.

The indictment is a rather interesting read. A quick summary:

– The judge, Russell Cletus Maricle, and the superintendent, Douglas C. Adams, styled themselves as the political bosses of Clay County, causing the appointment of corrupt people to the elections board and “recruiting” local candidates to run on a “slate” that would be guaranteed to win election.
– The Democratic member of the election board, Charles Wayne Jones, appointed elections officers who would do the bidding of himself, Maricle and Adams, including buying votes and changing votes that voters thought were properly cast but were actually not (more on that last item in a bit).
– The clerk, Freddy W. Thompson, used his position, to which he was elected in 2002 (the start of this conspiracy) to instruct corrupt election officers on how to change votes. He also supplied money used to buy votes and also is charged with lying to a federal grand jury.
– William E. Stivers, the Democratic election judge in Manchester in 2002 and 2004, handled the marking of voters whose votes were bought, and also participated in extortion schemes.
– Paul E. Bishop, the Republican election judge in Manchester in 2002 and 2004, also handled the marking of voters whose votes were bought, and also hosted “fundraisers” for the vote-buying scheme.
– William B. Morris and Debra L. Morris, who own a sanitation business that has contracts with Manchester and Clay County, provided money for the vote-buying scheme.
– In addition, Maricle and Stivers are charged with instructing one of the two Manchester election judges in 2006, identified as “W.W.” in the indictment, as participating in the vote-switching scheme to lie to a grand jury. The other person, identified by the Herald-Leader as Charles “Dobber” Weaver, previously pled guilty to vote-switching charges.

While the vote-buying scheme was part of all three election cycles, the introduction of touch-screen voting machines in 2006 introduced a new, more-insidious method for this cabal to exploit. Summarizing Count 9, for which Maricle, Jones, Thompson and Stiver have been indicted:

– Thompson and Jones appointed Weaver and “W.W.” as the Republican and Democratic election judges in the Manchester precinct, and instructed them to “…tell voters that when they had pushed a button labeled ‘Vote’ that their votes had been cast, when, in fact, that function merely provided a review screen of the voter’s selections in each race, and that the further step of pushing the ‘Cast Ballot’ button was required.”
– When the misled voters left the voting booth with a ballot they thought they properly completed but hadn’t, one of those two would enter the booth, change the vote to the “slate” decided by Maricle, and then complete the casting of the ballot.

According to the Kentucky State Board of Elections, Clay County currently uses exclusively the ES&S iVotronic. While the current version does not use the verbiage mentioned in the indictment (it’s “review” to review and “vote” to finish casting the ballot), and I cannot confirm that the iVotronic was used in 2006, it otherwise does match up with the method described in the indictment. Further, the iVotronic does not produce a paper record, much less one that is actually handled by the voter, although there is now option for a “paper-under-glass” audit feature (again, I do not know whether this version is in use in Clay County).

March 3, 2009

Race Cowards

by @ 5:07. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

Two weeks ago in his first address to his new staff, Eric Holder stated that the United States remains "a nation of cowards" on issues involving race.   The statement created quite a stir.   Folks, especially those on the right, took offense to Holder’s words thinking that he was pointing directly at them and suggesting that the Right was full of redneck racists.   I have to admit I thought that Holder was talking to us on the right but now I know he was talking to the Left.

Today, Dick Durbin took his frustration with Senator Roland Burris’ intransigence and unwillingness to resign his Senate seat to a new level.   In an interview  with the Chicago Sun-Times, reported by UPI, Durbin stated that race was a deciding factor in seating Burris:

Durbin said a combative and racially tinged appearance by African-American U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush, D-Ill., at a Dec. 30 news conference called by now-impeached Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich to announce Burris’ appointment to the Senate added a racial overtone to the situation, the Chicago Sun-Times reported Monday.

“My colleague from Illinois, Congressman Bobby Rush, made strong statements along those lines,” Durbin told Chicago radio station WGN. “They were painful and hurtful, and it became part of this calculation.”

What?   Race baiting and racism on the Left?   Say it ain’t so!

Let me see if I have this correct:

  • A leftist, black politician from Chicago, accusing his competitor’s voters of being racists because not all white voters will vote for him while virtually all black voters will, is elected President.
  • Rather than hold an election, the Democrats in Illinois decide to have a Senator  appointed by a corrupt Governor.
  • The corrupt Governor appoints a black replacement Senator largely because the previous Senator was black and he was getting flack from his black constituency.
  • The appointed black Senator goes off to Washington and is refused seating by Harry Reid.   Only after Harry Reid got threats from amongst others, the Congressional Black Caucus, did he roll over.
  • The appointed black Senator turns out to be at best, mentally infirm and is unable to remember specific, pertinent events related to Federal investigation or possibly a perjurer.   In either event, he  has become accustomed to his new positions and doesn’t want to leave.
  • Black leaders are once again lining up to support Burris….because he’s black:

Rev. Willie Barrow, a leader of the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition, recently said of Burris, “We put him in, and we’re going to keep him in.”

The difference between the Left and the Right’s view of race was perfectly framed by Rush Limbaugh during his speech to CPAC on Saturday:

Let me tell you who we conservatives are:   We love people. [Applause] When we look out over the United States of America, when we are anywhere, when we see a group of people, such as this or anywhere, we see Americans. We see human beings. We don’t see groups. We don’t see victims. We don’t see people we want to exploit. What we see — what we see is potential.

Holder was right, there are a bunch of cowards in the US that are not willing to talk candidly about race.   Unfortunately that cowardice exists throughout the Democrat party and dictates that the value of an individual is based upon the race, sex or sexual preference group they come from.   That cowardice is what  will hold Burris in a role where because of his “distractions” he will be unable to serve the people of Illinois.

The next time Eric Holder wants to talk about race he may want to focus his comments to those who like him, assume race determines a persons value.   That group is predominantly within the Left.

December 3, 2008

Oh Good Lord!

by @ 16:47. Filed under Elections, Politics - Minnesota, Vote Fraud.

Another Twin City precinct found another problem with their count of Senate ballots on election day.   According to this article, Minneaplis has come up 133 ballots short in their recount, of the ballots that they recorded on election night.   The Election Director came up with another lame excuse for how that “could” have happened and said she would verify the new numbers with Secretary of State. The reduction of the 133 ballots provided Coleman with a net pick up of 44 votes (apparently Franken had a 44 vote advantage in the 133 nonexistent ballots).

Minnesota has consistently been in the top 5 states of highschool graduation rates.   It is similarly rated for college graduates.   Apparently none of the folks in these “oops precincts” have  accplished either of those mile stones.

Congratulations Senator Chambliss!

by @ 5:44. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

Senator Chambliss has been called as the winner of the runoff election in Georgia.   This will give the Republicans at least 41 votes, on paper, in the Senate.

While the vote totals appear to be substantially lower than the general election, they still managed to get about 55% of the folks to return for a second time.   55% is a pretty good overall return rate for a runoff.   However, the two candidates fared very differently compared to the average.

I’m working off of numbers from the Secretary of State as of about 10 PM.   At that time, Chambliss had about 64% of the general election total while Martin only received about 50% of his general election total.   95% of the precincts had reported in those numbers.   If this difference holds, and I suspect it will generally based on the precincts left to report, I’ve got the following questions questions:

  • 93% of blacks voted for Martin when Obama was on the ballot.   They accounted for 56% of Martin’s vote total.   Did they come out and support an older white man when there wasn’t a black candidate on the ballot?
  • With the Democrats within reach of the magic 60 number in the Senate, how many folks switched from Martin to Chambliss?
  • Chambliss and Martin split the 29 and under group in the general election.   It will be interesting to see whether that group was able to show up a second time this year.
  • Sarah Palin made several campaign appearances for Chambliss.   By all accounts the events were very well attended.   How much, or was she a factor in generating turn out for Chambliss?
  • Do you remember how the MSM was carrying on about how the special elections for Mississippi and Illinois told us that conservatism was dead rather than the fact that Republicans know how to run crappy candidates.   Will the MSM be running stories about how Obama has lost his coat tails?

This and more I’d like to see.   I haven’t found any exit polls yet.   When I do, you’ll be the first to know!

November 4, 2008

Food for votes attempted by the Obama campaign in Milwaukee

by @ 17:45. Filed under Vote Fraud.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that a self-identified Obama campaign worker delievered food and bottled water to poll workers at Hampton School and presumably other North Side polling locations this afternoon. The individual, who left without identifying himself, at first said the bounty at Hampton School was for the poll workers, then said it was for voters waiting in line. While the law is apparently silent on delivery of food to poll workers (at least according to the Milwaukee Election Commission), it expressly prohibits the giving of “anything of value” to a voter to influence that voter’s choices.

Problem in Wauwatosa

by @ 15:30. Filed under Vote Fraud.

I somehow missed this one earlier, but the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that between 20 and 50 voters in Wauwatosa’s District 22 received ballots for District 24. Susan Van Hoven, the deputy city clerk, says that the votes for the races common to both districts will be transfered to new ballots by poll workers and then recorded. There are two issues here:

– The two Districts are in different Assembly districts, with a contested race between incumbent Leah Vukmir and challenger Dave Hucke in District 22. The “solution” offered by Wauwatosa will disenfranchise those voters in that race. That is unacceptable, especially since a shift of, depending on the caucusing whims of freshly-“independent” Jeff Wood, two or three seats will change the balance of power in the Assembly.

– Mark Belling pointed out, even as I type, that Wauwatosa’s city clerk, Carla Ledesma, altered official election records to remove evidence of double voting by state Senator Jim Sullivan. I do not trust Wauwatosa’s election officials to correctly remark the ballots for the races that are common to the two districts.

Racine updates (as of 3:50 pm)

by @ 12:21. Filed under Vote Fraud.

I’ll repost the Tweets from gopfolk, who is monitoring the Racine polls. I do not know the Racine area all that well, so I don’t know where the polling locations are. I do recall problems in Racine in the past, so I will keep this updated. Any typos are in the Tweets, which came via text message (so don’t knock gopfolk for them)

(7:14 am) Goodland school is OK. 2 other election observers
(7:41 am) MLK potential issue – obama volunteer working for clerks office – no issue noted
(8:09 am) Mckinley – election observers for obama – helping register voters – been corrected will monitor
(9:14 am) Johnson – no hard issues but there is an obama supporter outside of building directing people how to vote – watch?this
(9:49 am) Mitchel – 2 election protection – 2 dem attorneys – no issues
(10:35 am) Fine arts – poll works great – issue with unsworn person registering people – cmplaint filed
(10:44 am) Tyler domer – 2 vol sitting in their vehicle – not talking to anyone – copied plate num
(11:40 am) Lakeview – nothing here – very slow
(12:03 pm) Cesar Chaves – no issues – state chairman was here – moderate line
(12:56 pm) Faith united – dems handing out registration forms – told?them to?seace – called their attny upheld and they stopped – no issues
(1:24 pm) Jerstad – dems handing out reg forms asked?to cease chief inspector called city clerk and verified – dem attorney sees things diff
(1:25 pm) Work force dev ctr – machine down early – quickly replaced – very small for 2 voting wards
(1:27 pm) Humble?park – no issues – moderate line – dem poll checkers
(1:55 pm) Fest hall – no major issues – 2 attornys – abs ballots del to wrong loc
(1:59 pm) Emmanuel luthern – not busy – very well run – no issues – 2 dem attorneys
(2:13 pm) St andrews – 2 dems 1 is an attny – no issues have been noted – steady flow of people
(2:25 pm) Prince of peace – no issues
(2:38 pm) Eastside – busy but no issues

Running down a pair of early instances

by @ 10:31. Filed under Vote Fraud.

Item #1 – WISN-AM reported Obama flyers present at a polling place at W. Villard and N. 68th St. Since I did not hear the report first-hand, I believe it is the Byron Kilbourn School at 5354 N. 68th St, which is the voting location for the 22nd ward of the 2nd aldermanic district. It is illegal to have any electioneering materials within 100 feet of a polling place in Wisconsin.

Item #2 – WTMJ-AM reported police are involved in a challenge of votes at a remote absentee ballot counting location in the 4200 block of N. Holton St.

We hope to have more information shortly.

And the field has been prepared for fraud in Milwaukee

by @ 8:28. Filed under Vote Fraud.

John Fund reports that the head of the Milwaukee Police Department’s Special Investigations Unit has been told to send any investigators to the polls today, and that his unit will be disbanded. The unit’s crimes? Issuing a 67-page report that illustrated systemic vote fraud in Milwaukee in 2004, suggesting that same-day registration be eliminated and photo ID be required of voters, and uncovering evidence that the same will be going on this time, including GOTV groups having out-of-state workers register to vote in Wisconsin, a college dorm with 60 people who are not students, and at least 7 (probable-)illegal absentee ballots.

Un-fragging-believable. Actually, it’s all-too-believable because while city government is supposedly non-partisan, it is dominated by Democrats.

Revisions/extensions (11:09 am 11/4/2008) – Charlie Sykes interviewed Milwaukee Police Chief Ed Flynn, who categorically denied the main parts of the report from Fund. While the Special Investigations Unit will not be assigned to the polls directly, they, as well as a 50-officer response squad, are on standby. I’ll leave it to you to decide what’s what.

Election Day plans

I will be working with the Sam Adams Alliance and several other bloggers to report on voter/election fraud in and around Milwaukee until about 7 pm. Please stay tuned to this place, Vote Fraud Squad, and the #voterfraud hashtag on Twitter.

If you have any tips, please e-mail me at

November 3, 2008

The not-so-awaited Egg endorsements

I’ll start down the ticket because I can with a quick revision/extension at 9:55 pm 11/3/2008 to add most no-challenger races

Various advisory referenda in Wisconsin asking for government-provided health care, including Oak CreekNo. This is a back-door attempt to try to bully the Legislature into adopting universal health care in Wisconsin. The one plan that meets the suggestion of the standard referendum, Healthy (and Depopulated) Wisconsin, comes with a price tag that would double the tax burden in Wisconsin.

The Milwaukee County sales tax advisory referendum asking for a tripling of the county sales tax to 1.5%No. Even the supporters admit that this is a $65 million-$80 million tax increase. That is assuming that, if that tripling is authorized by the state, half of the receipts would go to property tax “relief”. If not, and all indications including historical are that it won’t, it’s a $130 million-$160 million tax increase in a county where a $200 item would become cheaper to purchase outside the county.

The city of Milwaukee direct legislation asking for paid sick leave to be imposed on all businesses in the cityNo. Another 9 days of vacation will drive what’s left of business out of Milwaukee. How bad is it? Even the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out against it.

Various school building and tax-increase referendaNo. At the risk of being called Dr. No, a time when the economy is at best tightening is not the time to be building new Taj Mahals for the teachers and administrators. Kids won’t know the difference between a 40-year-old building and a shiny new one, at least if the school districts wanted to do maintenance instead of create a “crisis”.

21st Assembly DistrictMark Honadel The math is simple; Honadel wants a stable-to-lower tax burden. Brower wants an ever-higher tax and regulatory burden.

14th Assembly DistrictLeah Vukmir

57th Assembly DistrictJo Egelhoff

97th Assembly DistrictBill Kramer

Any other Assembly or state Senate race I missedThe Republican Folks, I’ll put this in simple terms. The Democrats, should they gain complete control of state government, will make this a regulatory and tax hell. From Healthy (and Depopulated) Wisconsin to Gorebal “Warming” to a complete lifting of whatever property tax limits are in place, they promise more-expensive government.

Any other race where only one party or the other is represented except the 5th Congressional (specifically the Waukesha County District Attorney race)Dave Casper (write-in) Asian Badger pointed out in the comments I missed the idiot DA in Waukesha County. That’s probably because I don’t live there, but I’ll correct that oversight and give Dave a second chance for a victory party.

1st Congressional DistrictPaul Ryan Yes, Ryan is my Congressman. He is also a visionary who isn’t afraid to touch the third rail of entitlements.

8th Congressional DistrictJohn Gard Gard frankly got screwed two years ago. Those of you in northeast Wisconsin have seen subpar representation out of Kagen, and this is your best and probably last chance to oust him.

Any other Congressional race out thereThe Republican (with the exceptions of Don Young and Ted Stevens, where I recommend a write-in) This will be much like my state Legislature endorsement. The current crop of Democrats are chomping at the bit to turn us into Cuba; don’t reward the leaders of the worst Congress ever with more seats.

President/Vice PresidentJohn McCain/Sarah Palin I know I’ll probably be fighting a McCain administration more than I’ll support it. The alternative, a socialization of this country, is too frightening.

October 29, 2008

GAP in the vote

by @ 16:16. Filed under Elections.

Fausta reports that The Gap has been selling buttons that say “Vote Twice” as part of their Get Out The Vote campaign. No, it is not “cute”, or “innocent” to advocate vote fraud.

My standard is Every Legitimate Voter Has His Or Her Votes Counted Once And Only Once.

October 28, 2008

Poll-a-copia, P(w)ew and Galluping edition

by @ 16:13. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

And I mean that in a stinky way. Jim Geraghty did the the math on Pew’s latest poll (which has Obama up 53%-38% among likely voters), and found that Pew’s bias is 38.83% Democrat, 32.57% independent, and 28.61% Republican. Jim also notes that Pew’s spread was only off by one percentage point in their end-of-the-race 2006 poll bias (they had it at +4 D, it was +3 D).

Given that Gallup’s tracking polls have Obama up by 2 with the traditional model and 7 with the “expanded” one, something is seriously hosed.

October 23, 2008

Re: Hunting PUMAs

by @ 7:49. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

First things first; if you haven’t read Shoebox’s post, go read it now, then come back for some expansion on that.

I briefly noted the disappearance of the PUMAs in a different poll (specifically, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll) near the end of last month. Since we’re talking about the Gallup weekly aggregate of the daily tracking poll, I’ll use Gallup’s numbers to expand on that.

Gallup has been running the weekly aggregate since the week of June 9-15. That week, Barack Obama’s support was 78% of Democrats/43% of Independents/9% of Republicans, while John McCain’s support was 13%D/39%I/84%R. In terms of Democrats, 22% didn’t support Obama, with 13% specifically supporting McCain and the other 9% either supporting a third-party candidate or “undecided” (which includes not voting).

That held rather steady until the Democratic convention. Pre-convention Democratic support of Obama topped out at 82% the week of 7/7-7/13, and returned to 78% the week prior to the convention (8/18-8/24) when he announced Joe Biden as his running mate. Meanwhile, the Democratic support for McCain never dropped below 10% in that time frame (with the low point 7/7-7/13) and topped out at 14% just before the Democratic convention, while the “undecideds” remained between 8% and 9% (the lower just before the Democratic convention). That tracks rather well with Shoebox’s estimates that, had the PUMAs stuck to their guns instead of party, McCain could have had somewhere around 15% of support from Democrats, though I would have been happy with the 12% average that he did get between June and mid-August.

The Democratic convention week (8/25-8/31), which was immediately followed by McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin, provided a boost to the Obama/Biden ticket for Democrats, but not a decisive one. The Obama/Biden ticket saw support from 85% of Democrats that week, with a 9% support to McCain and 6% undecided. Democratic support for the Obama/Biden ticket actually dipped in the next couple weeks: the 9/1-9/7 aggregate saw it drop to 83%, with 11% supporting McCain/Palin, and the 9/8-9/14 aggregate saw McCain/Palin pick up another percent from the “undecideds” to bring that back to the average between June and mid-August.

However, there has been a steady march back to the roost for the PUMAs since then. The Obama/Biden-to-McCain/Palin splits among Democrats have been, in succession, 85%/10%, 86%/10%, 87%/8%, 87%/9% and now 89%/7%.

Shoebox’s reminder back in August that there wasn’t much of a difference between Obama and Hillary Clinton, and specifically his concerns that the PUMAs would remember that before the election, are coming true.

October 15, 2008

RNC stops ad buy in Wisconsin

(H/T – Kevin)

WisPolitics reports that the Republican National Committee has not bought any ads in the Eau Claire, Green Bay and Milwaukee markets for the week of 10/15-10/21. I do not know whether they had or still have buys in the Madison (doubtful), La Crosse or Wausau/Rhinelander markets. WisPolitics also notes that the McCain campaign still has buys active through the 19th.

I can’t say I’m surprised. While Wisconsin was the closest state in 2004 and one of the 3 closest in 2000, the ‘Rat Fraud Machine has solidified its position here over the last 8 years. Worse, recent polls, whose internals appear to be heavily-skewed against Republicans, show Obama with a double-digit lead.

If you don’t find me here 11/5, I’ll be face down.

Revisions/extensions (2:55 pm 10/15/2008 and re-arranged 4:27 pm 10/15/2008) – Word on the ClearChannel news stations (somehow had WOKY on instead of WISN) is that McCain will keep buying through the 26th.

October 10, 2008

Right Angles – your one-stop ACORN news shop

by @ 6:19. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

I don’t know if I could keep up with the ACORN sprouts if I were back at the bunker, but I definitely know I can’t on the road. Fortunately, Jon Ham over at Right Angles has, even though he’s termed the explosion of ACORN stories as growing faster than kudzu.

The dead rising from the grave (to vote) – Texas edition

by @ 5:25. Filed under Elections.

Texas Watchdog has the details on how at least 4,000 dead people in Houston, Texas are on the rolls, with some of “them” casting ballots. The three instances with the most dead voting were the November 2004 election, the November 2006 election, and the 2008 Democratic primary. I’m not at all surprised; after all, the Dems have 105% of the zombie vote.

Do read the entire thing. There is a nugget from someone who lost in that Democratic primary for those of you who thought that groups like ACORN would actually turn in the registrations of those they thought were not planning on voting for their former employee, Barack Obama.

Revisions/extensions (5:27 am 10/10/2008) – Corrected the city. I blame the 3 days’ of drinking.

October 9, 2008

Indy’s voter registration goes to 11

by @ 7:01. Filed under Elections.

(H/T – Say Anything via Emperor Misha I)

Paul K. Ogden of Odgen On Politics does the math on voter registrations in Marion County, Indiana (that would be the county that includes Indianapolis), and discovered there are 5% more voters registered than there were those 18 years or older in 2007. Specifically, Paul states there were 644,197 adults and 677,401 registered voters. The former number is likely slightly high (because Paul added up the number of juveniles in 2006 and subtracted that from the 876,804 people estimated to be in the county in 2007), while the latter comes to us from the Indianapolis Star.

One could try to make the argument that Marion County’s population did increase by 5%, but the recent census numbers don’t bear that out. While the Census Bureau does not offer the breakdown by age as STATSIndiana does, they do offer a chart estimating the population every year since 2000. I’ll reprint that here:

April 1, 2000 (Census official number) – 860,454
July 1, 2000 (beginning of the estimates) – 860,958
July 1, 2001 – 865,068 (+0.4% from 7/1/2000)
July 1, 2002 – 864,900 (drop of less than 0.1% from 7/1/2001)
July 1, 2003 – 865,820 (+0.1% from 7/1/2002)
July 1, 2004 – 866,917 (+0.1% from 7/1/2003)
July 1, 2005 – 868,735 (+0.2% from 7/1/2004)
July 1, 2006 – 872,986 (+0.5% from 7/1/2005)
July 1, 2007 – 876,804 (+0.4% from 7/1/2006)

In short, the population of Marion County increased by only 1.9% between July 1, 2000 and July 1, 2007, with a highest year-to-year change of 0.5%. To put it in annual terms, that’s less than 0.3% per year. Yet we’re supposed to believe that the adult population in Marion County increased by something north of 5% between July 1, 2007 and a couple days ago? Sorry, but I’m not buying that.

September 25, 2008


by @ 13:54. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

Jim Geraghty has been wondering how John McCain could be gaining among independents and still be losing to Barack Obama overall in various national polls. The popular conventional wisdom is that the current crop of polls are oversampling Democrats. Because he specifically asked for the oddly-missing party-identity numbers from the most-recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, which has Obama up 46%-44% among registered voters now compared to him up 45%-43% among registered voters in August (conducted before either running mate was made known), despite a swing from a 46%-35% Obama lead among “independents” in August to a 49%-34% McCain lead among “independents” in September, I’ll focus on that. I will ignore the “likely voter” component, where Obama leads 49%-45%, for now partly because I need to compare apples to apples (the August poll did not include “likely voters”), and partly because there is not a partisan breakdown among “likely voters”.

Before I get to the party identification explanation, I must note that Obama’s support among Democrats jumped from 78% to 87%. While some of this came from “McCain-ocrats” (McCain’s support among Democrats dipped from 9% to 5%), most of the gain came from the undecideds, as that dropped from 11% to 5%. In any case, I guess the PUMAs are coming home to roost.

Similarily, McCain has also strengthened his support among Republicans, albeit slightly. That went from 90% to 91%, and appears to have come at the expense of Bob Barr. More-pointedly, the percentage of “Obama-cans” remained unchanged at 6%.

Now, to the math. In order to do a comparison between the August and September polls, one has to know the party-identity internals from the August poll. Fortunately, those numbers are part of the August release, and were 34% Democratic, 29% Republican, 29% Independent, 4% Other Party, and an unmentioned 4% “refused to answer”. Since the remainder of the internals grouped the Independents, Other Party’ers, and “refused to answer”‘s together under the “independent” label, that becomes 37%.

I must point out that the 5-point advantage the Democrats had in the August poll is greater than the biggest of recent election-day splits (4 points in favor of the Democrats in 1996 and 2000, which actually beat the 3-point advantage they had in their historic 2006 election).

This is borne out, within rounding errors, by putting the results of a given early-in-the-poll question with three (or more) distinct answers into equation form (specifically, 3 equations) and solving for the three variables of the Democratic, Republican, and “independent” portions of support for each answer.

Since there are several questions in the September poll that meet those requirements, one can average the rounding errors out. I specifically solved the equations for questions 2, 9 (and the composite “ticket splitter” table), 13, and 15, and came up with an average of 34% Democrats, 43% “independents” and 23% Republicans in the September poll.

While there isn’t a massive increase in the percentage of Democrats included, there are a couple of things of note:

– The split between Democrats and Republicans (+11 D) matches the inflated numbers in other recent polls.
– The 21% decrease in the percentage of Republicans belies the conventional conservative wisdom that the selection of Sarah Palin energized the Republican base, at least on a statistical level. I can cite piece of circumstantial evidence (an incredible number of conservative bloggers jumping on the Straight Talk Express) after piece of circumstantial evidence (60,000 for Palin in Florida) after piece of circumstantial evidence (McCain/Palin outdrawing Obama in Green Bay) why this decrease is a bunch of macaca, but regular readers of this place already know why the decrease is a bunch of macaca.

For grins, let’s apply the August partisan split to the September poll, and the September poll to the August split. Had the August partisan split been applied to the September poll, McCain would be up 46%-44%. Had the September partisan split been applied to August, Obama would have been up 48%-39%.

I’ll briefly discuss the other oddity from the Times poll; the 4-point Obama lead among “likely” voters. There is one question that is somewhat relevant; number 3, or the “are you sure?” question. Again, there is not a specific breakdown of “likely” voters, but neither the partisan split among registered voters (91% of Democrats are sure of their choice, 88% of Republicans are sure of theirs) nor the split between the tickets (85% of Obama/Biden supporters are sure, 84% of McCain/Palin supporters are sure) fully-explains why Obama has that increased difference among “likely” voters.

August 27, 2008

Wisconsin to go for Obama in November

by @ 18:05. Filed under Elections, Politics - Wisconsin.

(All links from JSOnline’s DayWatch)

Just after finding out that 22% of voter registrations/address changes since August 6 do not match up to drivers’ license records, the Government “Accountability” Board ruled that not only will those registrants be allowed to vote with no correction of the voter registration and no check of any ID, but that future mismatches will be ignored. A vote on a motion to require an at-poll ID check for those that don’t correct inconsistencies in voter registration failed on a 3-3 vote, while a vote on a motion to ignore future mismatches passed 5-1.

Everything has gone according to ‘Rat Governor Jim “Craps” Doyle’s (WEAC/Potawatomi-For Sale) plan, as he is the one who put all 6 members that board after the two bipartisan boards that preceded it, the State Elections Board and State Ethics Board, failed in his favor on various matters before them so egregiously that “something had to be done”.

Revisions/extensions (6:11 pm 8/27/2008) – My semi-sarcastic advice to Team McCain; abandon Wisconsin (except for La Crosse, which serves northeast Iowa) as this state is now as lost a cause as Illinois.

August 7, 2008

She’s Baaaaack….. Maybe

by @ 8:14. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

Hillary’s thinking about asking to have her name added to the nomination ballot at the DNC Convention.

ABC News reports:

Sen. Hillary Clinton told a gathering of supporters last week that she’s looking for a “strategy” for her delegates to have their voices heard and “respected” at the Democratic National Convention — and did not rule out the possibility of  having  her name placed into nomination at the convention alongside Sen. Barack Obama’s.

“I happen to believe that we will come out stronger if people feel that their voices were heard and their views were respected. I think that is a very big part of how we actually come out unified,” Clinton, D-N.Y., said at a California fundraiser last Thursday, in a video clip captured by an attendee and posted on YouTube.

“Because I know from just what I’m hearing, that there’s incredible pent-up desire. And I think that people want to feel like, ‘OK, it’s a catharsis, we’re here, we did it, and then everybody get behind Sen. Obama.’ That is what most people believe is the best way to go,” she said.

“No decisions have been made. And so we are trying to work all this through with the DNC and with the Obama campaign.”

To quote Oprah, “YOU GO GIRL”

This would be AWESOME and potentially fatal for the dummycrats in 2008.

Just when you thought all of the disciples were lining up behind their messiah, BAM!!! BIG WRENCH!!!!!

Operation CHAOS Lives!!!!

June 25, 2008

McCain, RNC to curtail anti-vote fraud efforts

by @ 16:19. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

(H/T – DrewM)

Marc Ambinder broke the news that Team McCain McShame/RNC RAT Lite will be curtailing the anti-vote fraud efforts this year. Why? From Marc…

Sources with direct knowledge of the coordinated Republican effort this year say that high-ranking Republicans, including some within McCain’s campaign, are convinced that GOP efforts in 2004 were damaging.

Obviously. We don’t have President Flipper, and it took the DhimmiRATs until 2006 to get a majority in either House of Congress.

I do believe the operative phrase is FUCK THEM ALL!

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