No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for July, 2010

July 19, 2010

Government/UAW Motors and closed dealerships – an alternate take

by @ 15:53. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Most of my friends are seizing on the wrong aspect of the report on Government/UAW Motors’ closing of dealerships from TARP’s Special Inspector General. Private (or putatively private) enterprise, especially one in such bad financial shape that it is in bankruptcy, does not have a responsibility to be an employment-for-all agency. Indeed, government has neither the responsibility nor the authority to be an employment-for-all agency.

Rather, it’s the processes used by Government Motors and UAW Motors to shut down certain dealers, and the acceleration of the shutdowns ordered by the Obama administration’s Auto Team, that bear scrutiny. The report noted that the Auto Team ignored advice given by both the companies and outside experts that a rapid shutdown to match foreign car companies’ models might not be appropriate, “particularly in small markets in which the U.S. companies currently have a competitive advantage.” Indeed, both Chrysler execs and at least one outside expert told the Auto Team that shutting down dealers in the middle of a recession could hurt sales even worse and in such a way that it would take years to recover.

The report also noted that in the wake of legislated arbitration applying to both Government Motors and UAW Motors, a senior GM official stated that the final number of dealerships wouldn’t affect the recovery of GM. Taken together with the 216 GM dealerships restored (out of 1,454 cut) and 50 UAW Motors dealerships restored (out of 789 cut), the report “suggests, at the very least, that the number and speed of the terminations was not necessarily critical to the manufacturers’ viability.” At the same point, the report notes Ford Motor Company is closing dealerships at the rate GM had wanted to in its Treasury-rejected February 2009 restructuring plan.

Along the same lines, the report states that the lead advisors for the Auto Team, Ron Bloom and Steven Rattner, did not consider cost savings to be a factor in determining the need for dealership closures. You heard right – there was no business case made by the Auto Team to close the dealerships that were closed. Indeed, it was only after Congress demanded a cost-savings analysis that GM ginned one up out of whole cloth.

While UAW Motors appeared to follow its set of guidelines, the report noted that those guidelines included subjective elements such as choosing which dealers get to add product lines they previously did not carry and whether the market served was a “desirable” one as part of an implementation of Project Genesis (a pre-bankruptcy plan to have every Chrysler Group dealership carry every Chrysler Group brand). In at least one unnamed market, subjectivity cost the top-performing Jeep dealership its franchise in favor of a slightly-lower-performing Dodge dealership in the same market, with only the explanation that UAW Motors wanted the Dodge dealership and a pair of poorer-performing Chrysler/Dodge dealerships, to sell Jeeps.

Further, UAW Motors didn’t include an appeals process for those dealers axed. The stated reason was they wanted to be rid of those 789 dealers by the time they exited bankruptcy.

As for Government Motors, while the purported criteria for selecting their wound-down dealerships were all objective, the report noted that undeterminable factors outside those measures were used to wind down dealerships, including at least two dealerships who otherwise would not have been wound down. GM did not document why some dealers that met wind-down criteria were wound down while others were not, nor did they have complete criteria data for 308 of their then-5,591 dealerships.

While GM did have an appeals process for dealerships selected to be wound down, it was a criteria-free process. GM did not provide guidance for the data dealerships were to submit as part of their appeal, did not establish criteria for the review of the appeal, and did not document the reasonings behind the decisions to either grant or deny the appeal.

All in all, the report leaves the possibility that the closure of dealerships was, at least partially, driven by politics and especially the donation records of the principals of the dealerships, wide open.

Hope, change, a return to gravel roads

by @ 14:07. Filed under Politics.

(H/T – Purple Avenger)

The Wall Street Journal reports on the latest victim of the POR Economy – paved roads. With declining tax revenues and skyrocketing petroleum-based asphalt costs (left unmentioned except in the comments over at Ace of Spades HQ is the skyrocketing cost of government), more and more localities that are faced with rebuilding roads are simply completing the job of ruining the pavement and going to gravel roads.

I could look on the negative side (the dust that’s kicked up, the paint chips and cracked windshields from the flying gravel, the slower speeds and more numerous accidents forced by the uneven traction inherent in a gravel road, the more-frequent maintenance required, the increased likelyhood of a road closure after a good rainfall), or I could look at this as creating and saving a lot of road maintenance and auto repair jobs. Given I’m about to quote the Avenger’s close, guess which outlook applies:

Its all part of the Ogabe junta’s master plan to punish America and reduce the lifestyle gap between us and the 3rd world.

Monday Hot Read – Tom McMahon’s “Pomposity and Hypocrisy in Wisconsin”

by @ 13:40. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I don’t know how many times I’ve told you to read 4-Block World, but it’s time to tell you again. Today’s 4-Block deals with the two Democrats running at the top of the ballot in Wisconsin and just one of their “do as I say” moments:

Once again, I’ve made the executive decision to shut down comments here.

July 17, 2010

Mid-July poll-a-copia part tres – governor edition

by @ 9:47. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I wonder if semi-retired pro Bill Christopherson will continue to claim Rasmussen Reports is a Republican outfit after reading the mid-July Rasmussen update (Who am I kidding? Rasmussen could have Barrett up 20 points against both opponents and he’d still bash Rasmussen for being a Republican outfit.)

This round is quite a bit more favorable to Tom Barrett, who is looking to serve Jim Doyle’s third term. Barrett’s favorables improved from 42% favorable/44% unfavorable/-1 “Passion” Index (the very favorable percentage minus the very unfavorable percentage, and the favorability analogue to Rasmussen’s Approval Index) to 49% favorable/42% unfavorable/+1 “Passion” Index, and Doyle’s job approval rating improved from 35% approve/64% disapprove/-30 Approval Index to 40% approve/59% disapprove/-26 Approval Index.

The big loser was Mark Neumann, whose negative campaign is backfiring specactularly. His favorables slipped from 49% favorable/37% unfavorable/-3 “Passion” Index to 47% favorable/38% unfavorable/-5 “Passion” Index. That caused the head-to-head matchup against Barrett to flip from a 47%-39% Neumann advantage to a 45%-43% Barrett advantage, which represents both Neumann’s lowest support total and his first disadvantage in the campaign (the two were tied in late-April).

Neumann’s main target, Scott Walker, was relatively unscathed by the attacks the past few weeks. While his own 8-point lead against Barrett (49%-41%) was halved to 48%-44%, most of the movement was Barrett increasing his percentage from the pool of those who hadn’t made up their mind. Walker’s favorables were a mixed bag; while the favorable/unfavorable split improved from 51% favorable/35% unfavorable to 55% favorable/32% unfavorable, the “Passion” Index slipped from +14 to +11.

July 16, 2010

Behind the jobs numbers, Wisconsin edition

I’m sure you’ve heard the spin that the unemployment rate in Wisconsin dropped 3/10ths of a point to a seasonally-adjusted 7.9% last month, and that it was a full percentage point lower than that of June 2009. A deeper look at the numbers, however, show that it’s not because private entities are hiring, but rather people no longer even trying to look for work.

First, let’s take the seasonally-adjusted numbers for a comparison between May and June. While the ranks of the unemployed (or at least those who looked for work in the prior 4 weeks) dropped by 9,700, the ranks of the employed also dropped by 3,900. That means the civilian labor force dropped by 13,600, or 0.45%. Meanwhile, both private-sector employers (to the tune of 1,000) and government (to the tune of 7,200, half by the federal government as the temporary census workers were let go, the other half evenly split between state and local governments as the school year ended) shed a total of 8,200 jobs.

Next, let’s compare the non-adjusted numbers between June 2009 and June 2010. 41,600 (or 1.48%) fewer people were employed this June versus last June, and 39,400 (or 13.71%) fewer people were on the actively-seeking-work portion of the unemployment rolls, resulting in a civilian labor force drop of 81,000 (or 2.57%). The private sector cut 23,100 (or 0.98%) jobs, while government added 5,000 (or 1.17%) jobs. While state government did cut 3,200 (or 3.33%) jobs, the federal government grew by 4,400 (or 14.72%) and local government grew by 3,800 (or 1.26%). The only sectors that added jobs in the last year were mining (+300/9.38%), durable-goods manufacturing (+700/0.27%), admin support/waste management (+5,100/4.36%; some of which are likely local government), education (+3,000/6.16%; mostly state and local government), health care/social assistance (+4,100/1.12%; with a significant government component), and accomodation/food service (+4,800/2.09%).

Hopefully Wisconsin can survive the local version of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy – the DDS (Doyle-Decker-Sheridan) economy until that troika leaves power in the state. I don’t think the state can survive another full year of this.

RIP, 1st Lt. Vernon Baker

by @ 9:36. Filed under Military.

(H/T – Brad Wilmouth)

Vernon Baker, the last living American of African descent to receive, well after the fact, the Medal of Honor for his service during World War II, passed away Wednesday. Baker initially received the Distinguished Service Cross, and ultimately received a well-deserved Medal of Honor for the following actions:

For extraordinary heroism in action on 5 and 6 April 1945, near Viareggio, Italy. Then Second Lieutenant Baker demonstrated outstanding courage and leadership in destroying enemy installations, personnel and equipment during his company’s attack against a strongly entrenched enemy in mountainous terrain. When his company was stopped by the concentration of fire from several machine gun emplacements, he crawled to one position and destroyed it, killing three Germans. Continuing forward, he attacked an enemy observation post and killed two occupants. With the aid of one of his men, Lieutenant Baker attacked two more machine gun nests, killing or wounding the four enemy soldiers occupying these positions. He then covered the evacuation of the wounded personnel of his company by occupying an exposed position and drawing the enemy’s fire. On the following night Lieutenant Baker voluntarily led a battalion advance through enemy mine fields and heavy fire toward the division objective. Second Lieutenant Baker’s fighting spirit and daring leadership were an inspiration to his men and exemplify the highest traditions of the Armed Forces.

I’ll let Brian Williams handle the eulogy (from Wednesday’s “NBC Nightly News”):

Friday Hot Read – Jeff Dunetz’ “We Have The “F” Word And The “N” Word. What About The Other Letters?”

by @ 9:08. Filed under Politics - National.

Jeff Dunetz lists the words that can now only be described by letter. I’ll give you a couple just to encourage you to drop in on his place (which is also why I disabled comments, which I usually only do when I “borrow” 4-Blocks from Tom McMahon):

  • “E” Word- Earnings, things that big businesses are no longer allowed to have
  • “H” Word- Hussein, (you know who’s middle name) as in the Israelis hate me because of my middle name
  • “O” Word- Oil, We bad Americans must be weaned of the stuff

Head on over to Jeff’s place for the other 23.

July 15, 2010

Mid-July poll-a-copia part deux

by @ 19:36. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I am rather hesitant to talk about the latest Badger Poll on the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races (#30 for those coming here after the next one comes out) for several methodology reasons, but since polling is the spice of political life, I’ll do it. The big problem with the poll is the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, which conducted the poll, took 31 days, between June 9 and July 10, to get to 500 adults (466 registered voters and 297 likely voters). 31 days is a couple of eternities in politics. This effect is especially pronounced in the Senate race, where Ron Johnson, the Republican candidate the pollsters asked about, had just started a major ad campaign. This is borne out through Rasmussen’s polling, where 32% of those surveyed at the end of May had not heard enough about Johnson to form an opinion. That number dropped to 24% at the end of June and 18% this week.

Related to that, the UW crew did not attempt to force anybody who did not express an immediate preference to choose a candidate, though they do promise to do so in the next poll. In the Senate race, a full 55% of all those surveyed, 51% of registered voters, and 38% of likely voters (the last representing a plurality) did not express an immediate preference. On the gubernatorial side, 52% of those surveyed, 48% of registered voters, and 37% of likely voters did not express an immediate preference.

The last major flaw is that the UW crew did not even attempt to separate Scott Walker and Mark Neumann in the head-to-head against Tom Barrett. Instead, the second half of the “who would you vote for” question used “one of the Republican candidates”.

Related to that, the while the actual head-to-head question did randomly rotate between the Republican and the Democrat, and the favorability question was similarly rotated among the people asked about, the Democrat was always named first in the lead-up to the head-to-head question.

I suppose I should start with the biggest bit of news – the partisan split. The difference between the overall split of 40% independent/other, 31% Democrat, 29% Republican and the the likely-voter split of 40% independent/other, 36% Republican, 24% Democrat (mentioned in the gubernatorial poll release) can only be good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats. Indeed, a very-quick look back through the archives did not find a previous mention of the demographics of who the pollsters determined to be likely voters.

Among those relatively-few likely voters, Russ Feingold leads Ron Johnson 33%-28%. However, beyond the caution flags of the high undecided percentage and the lengthy time of the poll at a point where one of the candidates was still in the process of introducing himself, there is a third item – that lead is still within the 5.7% margin of error for the small sample size. Further, 87% of those surveyed and 80% of likely voters didn’t know enough about Johnson to form an opinion.

What can be inferred from the overwhelming preference for a Republican versus Tom Barrett for governor (overall 32%-15%, and 43%-19% among likely voters) is that Wisconsin simply does not want a third Jim Doyle term. It also shows that the anti-Milwaukee factor in Northern Wisconsin (defined by UW as pretty much everything north of Highway 33) is pretty much overrated, though most of those in Norther Wisconsin haven’t heard of any of the candidates. Walker’s favorability split in Southern Wisconsin is 33% favorable/20% unfavorable, and his favorability split in Northern Wisconsin is 17% favorable/7% unfavorable. Mark Neumann’s favorability split in the south is 18% favorable/16% unfavorable, and his favorability split in the north is 15% favorable/7% unfavorable. Tom Barrett’s favorability split in the south is 33% favorable/25% unfavorable, and his favorability split in the north is 23% favorable/13% unfavorable.

What a return on Porkulus investment

by @ 16:01. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

For once, DPW chair Mike Tate uttered a grain of truth in a press release touting the power of Porkulus. Since the DPW will likely revise and extend the comments before too long, I decided to grab the admission that Porkulus “supported 63 jobs here in this state” (do click for the full-sized pic).

The mo’ is with Johnson

Rasmussen Reports has upped their polling tempo ahead of the election, and the news is very good for Ron Johnson. In a poll taken July 13 of 750 likely voters, he has pulled ahead of Russ Feingold for the first time, 47%-46%. That compares favorably to a Rasmussen late-June poll that had Feingold up 46%-45%, and a Public Policy late-June poll that had Feingold up 45%-43%. The Slimeroad Slime Machine still isn’t working, as Johnson’s favorables climbed to 51% favorable (up 19 points from June)/30% unfavorable (up 5 points from June)/+11 “Passion” Index (up 2 points from June).

The toplines are, once again, more favorable to the Democrats than the national picture. Once again, President Obama’s Wisconsin approval ratings (49% approve/51% disapprove/-14 Approval Index) are better than the national numbers (48% approve/52% disapprove/-17 Approval Index). Various other questions, from Gulf drilling to PlaceboCare, from illegal immigration to the Tea Party Movement, reveal a slightly more leftward tilt (or more properly, a lesser rightward tilt) in Wisconsin than nationally. Feingold also improved his favorables to 53% favorable (up 1 point from June)/43% unfavorable (down 2 points from June)/+5 “Passion” Index (up 5 points from June).

The news isn’t nearly as good for Dave Westlake. A couple weeks after getting to within 6 points of Feingold, Westlake now trails 51%-37%. Despite being in the race for well over a year, he is still so unknown 31% of those surveyed could not form an opinion on him, and only 13% had a strong opinion. While his overall favorability improved to 36% favorable (up 2 points from June)/31% unfavorable (unchanged from June), his “Passion” Index dropped another point to -5.

Revisions/extensions (1:39 pm 7/15/2010) – Just for grins, I decided to see if I could see whether the polls back in 1998 indicated that Mark Neumann was as close as his 2-point loss. CNN came through, and the closest Neumann was that year was a late-October Market Shares/WTMJ-TV poll that had him down 3 points. Two other contemporary polls had Feingold up 7 points, and polls earlier showed larger leads for Feingold.

That means this race is the closest for Feingold since he pulled off the upset in 1992.

Thursday Hot Read – Patrick McIlheran’s “The Great Train Robbery”

by @ 10:04. Filed under Choo-choos, Politics - Wisconsin.

Not only did I “borrow” the concept from Charlie Sykes, but today I also am “borrowing” the source material. While Charlie focused on the killing of Badger Coach (as 71,000 of the 120,000 who take Badger Coach would, at least theoretically, go from the unsubsidized Badger buses to the heavily-subisidized choo-choo), I’ll focus on another part of the piece:

But even when the train stops in downtown Madison (or Milwaukee), passengers will have to get to or from it. That’s why that dream trip involves a train to the train. The $220 million cost of Madison’s planned light rail system is not included in the high-speed train’s cost. Nor is the $100 million cost of the downtown trolley that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett wants to ferry people from the train station.

And even with that kind of extra money, the fact is that most trips either start or end somewhere other than near the train. Clients incorrigibly move their offices out to the University Research Park, seven miles west of Monona Terrace. Or you move to Franklin.

All this crimps the speed advantage of a train when you add the time it takes to wait for the light rail, to ride it, to transfer to the big train, to wait for the big train to leave.

Interestingly, buses have the advantage here. Meier, whose nostalgia appears limited to having found and bought a 1957 GMC model his company once used, notes that Badger used to have a depot in downtown Madison. Not anymore: It was scarcely used, so the company closed the depot and took customers where they wanted to go.

“That’s one of our advantages as a bus,” says Meier. With tires instead of tracks, “if a stop isn’t very popular, we can stop going there” and instead go directly where people prefer. “We can adjust.”

P-Mac inexplicably forgot about the several-hundred-million-dollar local-bus-service-speed KRM disaster, for which a transfer is also required. Including KRM still doesn’t make it any easier for the train crowd to get to Franklin, or the North Shore, or Waukesha, or…(insert itinerary that doesn’t include the Lower East Side here).

There’s actually one more thing that I should touch on:

The money is part of $8 billion being passed out by the Obama administration in grants to spur new high-speed passenger trains nationwide. Wrapped into the much larger Obama stimulus package, the money is a product of Washington’s lowered inhibitions when it comes to getting value for the taxpayer dollar.

Wisconsin’s grant specifically was part of a scheme to tie Midwest cities to Chicago. Backers speak of trains displacing short-haul flights — so instead of us changing planes in Chicago, we’ll change trains there, or we’ll just do business there and forget about traveling on to St. Louis or Singapore.

That brings up another thing – there is no direct rail service between either Madison or Milwaukee and either of Chicago’s airports, nor would there be direct rail service between Madison and either downtown Chicago or Mitchell International. It would be a rather lengthy train trip with a transfer (or two to CTA’s El for the Chicago airports) if one wanted to get to either Chicago or a real airport from Madison. The funny thing is, even Amtrak provides direct bus service between Madison and downtown Chicago, while private bus companies provide direct service between Madison and all the major points of interest in Milwaukee and Chicago.

July 14, 2010

Excuse Me?

by @ 19:21. Filed under Immigration, International relations.

The AP is reporting that Bejing(that would be in China) is creating gated communities.  While in the US, when you say “gate community” you think of opulence, in China, gate communities are done to keep the low income, undesirables from running amok in the neighborhoods.

OK, China has a horrible record on human rights and they are still a Communist country so abusing some folks isn’t new.  What is new is how this is perceived and accepted by our left intelligentsia:

“In some ways, this is like the conflict between Americans and illegal immigrants in the States. The local residents feel threatened by the influx of migrants,” Huang Youqin, an associate professor of geography at the University at Albany in New York.

Huh?  What?  Excuse me?

What China is doing is nothing like the Arizona situation!  First, China is doing this to their own residents, not illegal aliens.  Second, last I looked, I’ve seen no ghettos set up for illegal aliens.  In fact, we have a bunch of sanctuary cities that opening welcome illegal aliens.  Finally, the only “gating” done in the US is for illegal acts.  That said, I’m betting there are some countries that the illegals have left who think and act upon their residents in the same fashion that China does!

Moral equivalency my butt!

“NO” to “War on Terror”, “YES” to ETOC Complaints

by @ 14:42. Filed under International relations, War on Terror.

According to a report filed by Jake Tapper, President Obama has found a reason to fight Al Qaeda. No, it’s not because of their terroristic acts, well, not directly. No, the reason President Obama is unhappy with Al Qaeda is because they are racist!

In an interview earlier today with the South African Broadcasting Corporation to air in a few hours, President Obama disparaged Al Qaeda and affiliated groups’ willingness to kill Africans in a manner that White House aides say was an argument that the terrorist groups are racist.

Speaking about the Uganda bombings, the president said, “What you’ve seen in some of the statements that have been made by these terrorist organizations is that they do not regard African life as valuable in and of itself.  They see it as a potential place where you can carry out ideological battles that kill innocents without regard to long-term consequences for their short-term tactical gains.”

Have you picked yourself up off the floor yet?

So, let me get this straight.  The President believes that if Al Qaeda recruited more white suicide bombers, their human rights record would match right up along side whose exactly?

The spokesperson went on to explain the logic for this conclusion by using the African Embassy bombings as examples:

This can be seen, the official said, in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, when hundreds of Africans were killed and thousands wounded.

I may have missed part of this story but wasn’t Al Qaeda trying to kill the US Embassy employees at the embassies?  Is the administration suggesting that if Al Qaeda had calculated that the same number of white European innocents had been killed and harmed as collateral damage, that Al Qaeda wouldn’t have attempted the embassy attacks?

I know, you think I’m being loose and flip with the words.  You think I’m twisting what they’re saying into something it isn’t merely to poke fun at the administration.  Nope, this one is real:

“Additionally, U.S. intelligence has indicated that Al Qaeda leadership specifically targets and recruits black Africans to become suicide bombers because they believe that poor economic and social conditions make them more susceptible to recruitment than Arabs,” the official said. “Al Qaeda recruits have said that Al Qaeda is racist against black members from West Africa because they are only used in lower level operations.”

That’s right, if only Al Qaeda would have a proportional number of Africans in their upper leadership as they have in their human bomb division, the US would have no problem with what they are doing.

Can it be long before we have another Czar announced?  The Czar of ETOC (Equal Terrorist Opportunity Commission) will likely be made as a recess appointment during the next Congressional break.  I can’t wait for the first meeting between the Czar and leaders of Al Qaeda where the Czar will no doubt open the meeting by apologizing for Arizona’s discriminatory illegal alien legislation!

NRE Poll – Should the NFL expand its regular season?

by @ 10:00. Filed under NRE Polls, Sports.

As someone once said, all politics and no fun makes Egg a very dull boy. Since I merely want to be known as a dull boy, it’s time for a spiral. The Packers open up training camp in 17 days, so it’s time to start focusing on the NFL.

Unless you’ve been in a cave the last 2 years, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been looking at expanding the NFL season. Originally, he wanted to get it done in time for 2011 and the scheduled start of the new collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players’ Association, but the clock has slid both that plan and the odds of an on-time new CBA back.

Originally, the thought was to add a single game, possibly at neutral sites, and likely a few outside the US if they went to neutral sites. That has morphed into converting 2 of the 4-5 preseason games into 2 additional regular-season games.

In addition to the injury angle that the NFLPA and some others have noted, that would make a hash of the “perfect” schedule the NFL put together when they went to 32 teams. Right now, each team plays its 3 division rivals in a home-and-home series, the 4 teams from a different division of the same conference, the 4 teams from a division in the other conference, and the 2 teams they otherwise wouldn’t play that finished in the same place in their division the previous year (the “parity” conference games). In fact, those who know how to read the standings, break ties, and remember previous seasons’ schedules know who their team is playing, and for 14 of those games, where, the moment the final gun goes off in the last regular-season game, with only the dates to be filled in.

A single added game would throw the entirety of that picture out of balance. Adding 2 games would, if schedule harmony were to be preserved, necessitate the elimination of the “parity” conference games in favor of playing a third division in either conference. Adding 3 games, which could be accomplished either by adding a third division in a team’s conference or adding “parity” non-conference games, would certainly seem make for a too-long season.

Since most of you who read this place are football fans (or at least I hope you are), it’s time to toss it out to the readership. Unlike Chicago and locations with court-ordered one-man/many-vote situations, vote early and vote once, because the poll closes at noon July 31.

Should the NFL expand its regular-season schedule?

Up to 1 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • No (53%, 10 Vote(s))
  • Yes, to 19 games (26%, 5 Vote(s))
  • Yes, to 18 games (21%, 4 Vote(s))
  • Yes, to 17 games (0%, 0 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 19

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Jim Klauser hands Neumann his hat

by @ 9:24. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

In a fresh open letter to Mark Neumann regarding his false claims that spending went up faster in Milwaukee County under Scott Walker than it did at the state level under Jim Doyle, Jim Klauser literally hands Neumann his hat for lunch (letter courtesy Jay Weber):

July 14, 2010 – Mr. Mark Neumann

Dear Mark:

It has been more than five weeks since I wrote to you requesting that you return the contributions Shirley and I made to your campaign. I asked for the return since you had assured us that you would run a positive campaign focusing on the Doyle-Barrett record. You haven’t done that. Even in these last weeks you have expanded your negative attacks beyond your primary opponent to everyone else.

Your campaign treasurer, your son Matt, told me that you would return my contribution if I refuted your claims about your opponent’s record as County Executive. You echoed those comments as well. The numbers you cite for Milwaukee County include capital bonding of $251 million which is expended over a three year period and paid-off over 15-20 years. (This was done to obtain better interest rates) Your analysis of Jim Doyle’s spending did NOT include bonding (which is considerable under Doyle).

You should know, but apparently don’t, that much of what a county government does is mandated and partially funded by either the federal or state government. County government has no control over increases/decreases in such funding. A care management organization is funded at $256 million entirely with state-federal Medicaid dollars.

You fail to mention the substantial reduction in the number of county employees under Walker’s watch. In 2000 county employees on an FTE basis numbered 7,263; in 2010 the number is 5,256. This substantial reduction indicates increased efficiency in Milwaukee County government and a savings to taxpayers.

The bottom line is you aren’t comparing apples to apples; rather your analysis is somewhat akin to fruit salad. By the way you should know, but apparently choose to ignore, that the county executive vetoed increased spending every year; these vetoes were overridden by the county board with the result of increasing spending.

You have used these misrepresented figures to claim that the county budget has increased 26% since 2006 while the state budget has increased 19%. In reality, Milwaukee County’s budget has increased 9% below the rate of inflation of 9.6% which gives Milwaukee County residents a spending reduction in adjusted dollars.

Please return our contributions.

James R. Klauser

If one is inclined to attend one of Neumann’s town halls, I suggest you bring a condiment to help Mark with his hat-eating. Embarrassing moments are what happens when one depends on the likes of One Wisconsin Now to do fiscal research.

July 13, 2010

Speaking of SocSecurity, the preliminary June 2010 update

The Treasury released its June 2010 Monthly Treasury Statement, and things just keep on getting worse for Social Security. Do bear in mind these numbers are still preliminary because the Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary hasn’t finalized them yet, but let’s run with them.

Overall

I really should not do the combined numbers anymore because the two “trust funds” are separate entities, but since everybody else still does them, I’ll briefly touch on it. They took in a total of $56,808 million in taxes, received $59,072 million in “interest” (because this is one of the two times interest is credited to the entire holdings), and paid out $63,308 in expenses. That left a gross increase in assets of $52,572 million (45.37% of total revene) and a primary (cash) decease in assets of $6,500 million (-11.44% of tax revenue). The 12-month gross surplus was $90,183 million, while the 12-month primary deficit was $28,260 million.

DI “Trust Fund”

The Disability Insurance “Trust Fund” had $8,249 million in taxes, $4,706 million in interest, and $11,018 million of outgo. That netted a monthly overall surplus of $1,778 million (worst June since 1994) or 14.95% of total revenue (also the worst June since 1994), and a monthly primary deficit of $2,769 million (5th-worst month, outside the “double-payment” month of August 1990, since monthly recurds were kept starting in 1987) or -33.57% of tax revenue (9th-worst “not-screwy” month since monthly records were kept).

The 12-month overall deficit was $18,725 million (worst since monthly records were kept) or -17.68% of total revenue (also worst since monthly records were kept). That meant that the “trust fund” lost 8.78% of its value over the past 12 months.

The 12-month primary deficit was $28,708 million (worst since monthly records were kept) or -29.93% of tax revenue (also worst since monthly records were kept). Put another way, tax revenues only covered just under 77% of the costs of the DI program.

OASI “Trust Fund”

The Old-Age and Survivors “Trust Fund” had $50,635 $48,559 million in taxes, $54,366 million in interest, and $52,290 million of outgo. That netted a monthly overall surplus of $54,366 million (worst June since 1994) or 49.20% of total revenue (worst June since 1999, prior to the latest realignment of the FICA/SECA taxes between the two “trust funds”), and a monthly primary deficit of $3,731 million (4th-worst month, outside the “double-payment” month of August 1990 and the transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund” in November 1994, since monthly records were kept) or -7.68% of tax revenue (7th-worst “non-screwy” month since monthly records were kept).

The 12-month overall surplus was $108,910 million (worst since 9/1998-8/1999) or 15.93% of total revenue (worst since 5/1996-4/1997). Of note, the earlier dates were when less of the FICA/SECA tax was being directed to the OASI “Trust Fund” than currently.

The 12-month primary surplus was $375 million (worst outside the effects of the November 1994 transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund”) or 0.07% of tax revenues (again the worst outside the effects of the November 1994 transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund”). Of note, the two worse 12-month periods for the OASI saw a change of +$112 million (+0.04% of tax revenue) between 10/1994 and 9/1995 and -$825 million (-0.28% of tax revenue) between 11/1994 and 10/1995 due to that transfer to save the DI “Trust Fund”.

Tax revenues keep on sliding

The conditions of the “Trust Funds” are bad enough. However, that’s not the worst of the immediate news. Based on what the taxes taken in for the purposes of Social Security (FICA, SECA, and taxation of benefits) had been for the first 5 months of this year compared to the first 5 months of last year, Social Security tax revenues should have been around $58,540 million, or about 4.63% lower than the $61,383 million collected in June 2009. Instead, only $56,808 million came in to Social Security’s coffers in June 2010, a 7.45% drop from June 2009. That also was an overestimation of 2.96% on my part.

On the bright side, the outgo of $63,308 million was slightly less than my estimate of $63,984 million. I missed it by a mere 1.06%.

Revisions/extensions (6:36 pm 7/13/2010) – Corrected the characterization of the 12-month OASI primary change. It’s not until this month that it will go into the red. Also, added the “Economy Held Hostage” category that Shoebox started up earlier today.

R&E part 2 (8:18 pm 7/14/2010) – I somehow listed my spreadsheet estimate of taxes taken into the OASI fund instead of the Treasury figures. Sorry about that.

Economy Held Hostage – More Evidence

The hits, they just keep a coming….

and finally….

The White house is trying to ease tensions with business.  While I’m not in the habit of providing my consultations for free, I will make this one exception.  President Obama, the solution is easy.  Businesses of all sizes want you to get off their backs and quit making up new regulations by the minute.  If you abide by those 2 simple rules, they’ll be OK.

Tuesday Hot Read – Peter Ferrera’s “Are Overdue Reports Concealing ObamaCare Impact On Medicare?”

by @ 13:54. Filed under Social Security crater.

(H/T – Tom Blumer)

Last week, Peter Ferrera wondered in an Investor’s Business Daily op-ed where the already-late Social Security/Medicare Trustees’ Report is. As of a few minutes ago, it’s still not available.

Ferrera hits a multitude of topics, one of which I’ll focus on here:

The administration is trying to delay the report until mid-August, when it’s hoping the country will be on vacation and won’t notice. Or maybe the delay is because the White House is trying to bludgeon the chief actuaries for Medicare and Social Security into fudging the numbers.

Those chief actuaries are dedicated, career professionals who have worked their way up the bureaucracy over decades.

During the Reagan administration, the congressional Democrat majorities and the New York Times made clear to us that tampering with the work of the government’s career professionals, let alone the career number crunchers, would be grounds for impeachment.

I’m not certain the rule of law applies to this administration, where the Justice Department cites “payback time” as its reason for not prosecuting Black Panther Voting Rights Act violations.

Point of order – while the report is done by the career actuaries, they’re signed by the political masters, five of whom are hand-picked by Obama (the Secretaries of Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services, and two Public Trustees, whose positions were vacant as of last year). I’m not taking bets on which scenario is actually happening because an objective view of either program, especially Social Security, would show that things are a lot worse than they thought just last year.

Take one down, ship to the Congo…

by @ 10:31. Filed under Energy, Politics - National.

The re-issuance of the “temporary” moratorium on deepwater drilling has forced Diamond Offshore to send a second rig packing, this time to the Congo. Unlike the Ocean Endeavor, which likely will never be back in the Gulf of Mexico, the Ocean Confidence might be back after 3 years in the Congo for a year, but only if the ban on deepwater drilling is lifted.

WISN-AM’s Jay Weber said on his show this morning that he believes that ban will never be lifted while Teh Won is in office. The fact that the Ocean Confidence will be gone for a minimum of 3 years shows Diamond Offshore believes the same.

Give us freedom in our health care, says…

by @ 10:05. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

(H/T – Breitbart via Michelle Moore)

…Great Britain.

It truly is amazing how as we descend to what the British have suffered through, they’re looking for ways to climb out of that hole.

July 12, 2010

Drinking Right – July 2010 Edition

by @ 18:57. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

I could have used the Emergency Blogging System for this, but I decided the personal touch was more appropriate. Tomorrow is the second Tuesday of July, and that means one thing in Milwaukee – it’s time for another edition of Drinking Right. Be like me and come on down to Papa’s Social Club at 7718 W. Burleigh in Milwaukee at 7 pm to hang with some of the best bloggers in the Milwaukee area, and special guest Pacur president Ron Johnson.

American Economy Held Hostage

by @ 14:32. Filed under Economy, Miscellaneous, Politics - National.

On June 17th, Vice President Biden kicked off “Recovery Summer.”  If you missed it, Recovery Summer was designed to be a celebration of the massive surge of jobs that was to result from the implementation of the various stimulus projects.

Vice President Biden was the perfect mascot talking head for Recovery Summer in that just 2 months prior, he was touting how the Obama rejuvenated economy was soon to be generating 500,000 jobs a month.

So, how’s that recovery going for us? In just the past week we’ve seen:

  • June employment numbers that are worse than any sub retirement age individual has seen during their working life.
  • The Canadian dollar closing in on parity with the US dollar because the Canadians, a country of just 34 million people and an economy of just 1/10th of the US, generated 93,000 net jobs in June while the US economy could only generate 83,000 private sector jobs.
  • Even though the US Government was denied a reinstatement of their gulf drilling moratorium, the risk for drillers is so high that the moratorium is, for all practical purposes, in effect.  The first big drilling rig has left the gulf heading for more sure work in Egypt.

Not yet recognizing the impact of his agenda and choices on the US Economy, President Obama is rumored to be pushing Congress to pass both Cap and Tax and card check during what will surely be a lame duck session for the Democrats. While the negative impact of card check would be harder for most Americans to discern, Cap and Tax, by the administration’s own admission, would increase the costs for the average family by over $1,700 each year.

If it wasn’t clear before, there is no longer any doubt that the happy talk from the Obama administration about “job creation” and “an economic recovery” are just that, happy talk. It’s now clear that the American economy is being held hostage by the Obama administration and won’t be released until Obama has accomplished the redistribution of wealth that the far left has only managed wet dreams about since the days of FDR.

Note the new counter on the home page. We’ll be incrementing until the month that 500,000 net, private sector jobs are generated. Until then, we’ll be counting the days of the American Economy Held Hostage!

July 6, 2010

Kennedy grabbing a Snickers, not going anywhere for a while

by @ 16:34. Filed under Lawgivers-In-Black, Politics - National.

(H/Ts – Ed Morrissey and Sister Toldjah)

The Daily News reports that Justice Anthony Kennedy, the most-powerful Lawgiver-In-Black as the Supreme Court’s swing vote, told friends and family he’s sticking around for at least another 3 years. Ever-so-conveniently, that places his potential retirement past the end of President Obama’s first term.

Ed notes there may well be a bit of vengenace on the part of Kennedy against Obama:

Obama certainly reveled in his prime-time, televised, cheap-shot attack at jurists who couldn’t fire back. Samuel Alito took fire from the media for having just mouthed a rebuttal. The only revenge any of them can take is to make sure that they stay in place until Obama leaves office. The “at least” part of the report almost certainly means that retirement at 80 may be just as possible as retirement at 76. After all, John Paul Stevens didn’t decide to retire until he was almost 90 years old.

When you lose the moderates,….

July 5, 2010

Monday Hot Read – Tom Blumer’s “The Most Depressing Numbers in Friday’s Employment Data”

by @ 6:27. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

Tom Blumer explains why the June civilian labor force number justifies total depression:

The SA (seasonally-adjusted) number for June is bad enough. In fact, June’s seasonally adjusted workforce shrinkage is the largest for any June since 1963.

But the NSA (non-seasonally-adjusted) number representing what really happened is even worse. In a normal June, the workforce increases significantly, because lots of people occupied with other things during the rest of the year typically test the waters in the seasonal and summer-job market. But whereas an average of about 1.75 million did so during the past seven Junes, including almost 1.6 million last year during the recession, only 901,000 did so in June of 2010. You have to go all the way back to 1954 to find a worse June on the ground in the private sector than the June we just experienced. On a population-adjusted basis, June’s figure is the worst performance in the 63 years BLS has been tracking the data.

The only way anybody, especially Teh Won, can claim that we’re headed in the “right direction” with those numbers is if that person’s goal is to make everybody dependent on government.

July 4, 2010

This is what it’s all about

by @ 6:00. Filed under History.

I originally ran this on Independence Day, 2007 and again on Independence Day, 2009. It’s time to dig out the Declaration of Independence again.

IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.


Something else that I highlighted 3 years ago – Rick Moran’s 3-day liveblog of the Continental Congress. Do make sure you read the following:

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