No Runny Eggs

Shoebox and Birdman have been having a spirited debate on the future of PlaceboCare. While I hope that Birdman is right that this can still be scuttled, I’m of even a more sour opinion than Shoebox. Allow me to put in my 2-cents’ worth:

• There are actually three versions of PlaceboCare out there: the version that passed the Senate on a party-line vote (the hijacked H.R. 3950), lacking any sort of public option but financing abortion-on-demand; the version that barely passed the House (H.R. 3962), lacking financing for abortion-on-demand but having a public option; and H.R. 3200, still lurking in the shadows and having both the public option and financing for abortion-on-demand. Of the three, only H.R. 3200 and a completely-unamended version of H.R. 3950 would not have to go through a 60-vote test in the Senate.
• The limited debate on H.R. 3950 strongly suggests that there would be 50 votes (plus Biden) in the Senate for H.R. 3200.
• If Nancy Pelosi can get a majority to support an nearly-unchanged (from the Senate-hijacked) version of H.R. 3950 (or even a completely-unchanged version), it is likely that she would also be able to get a majority for H.R. 3200. After all, the bigger stumbling block in the House has been abortion-on-demand funding.
• If Scott Brown pulls off the upset in Massachusetts and wins next month’s special election to permanently fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat (and if the ‘Rats seat him), the Democrats would not be able to get to 60 votes for either an amended H.R. 3950 or a Senate-considered H.R. 3962 (at least without the defection of one of the Maine Wonder Twins).
• As Shoebox said, Pelosi doesn’t much care about losing 40 ‘Rats, especially if they’re Blue Lap Dogs. I’ll add to that by saying Harry Reid and company aren’t at all worried about losing a majority in the Senate. Indeed, given the lack of NRSC/NRC support for Brown, I have my doubts about the Republicans’ desire to pick up even one net seat in 2010.
• However, I disagree with Shoebox that just “anything” will mollify the moonbats’ anger that full-out Communism hasn’t broken out yet. If the Dems lose control of the House in 2010, it will be in large part because the ‘bats stayed home to protest “nothing” being done, much like how the Republicans lost control in 2006. That is the threat that Pelosi will respond to.

Damn, I hope I’m wrong. I REALLY hope I’m wrong.

Well, it’s official now.  I feel the need to get it off my chest.

Birdman and I have been having an ongoing, private debate.  He believes placebocare will yet meet its Waterloo.  His primary belief, which he outlines nicely here,  is that the looming deficit will be the piece that brings enough Democrat votes together with Republicans, to kill this freedom obliterating bill.  I don’t want to make Birdman sound like a myopic Pollyanna.  He also believes that abortion, public option or a host of other issues could also cause the bill to stall.  In short, if I may paraphrase, he believes there are too many moving pieces and too many Democrats who will have to face election next year, to hold together the votes that were there on the passage of the original House and Senate versions.

I on the other hand, have complete confidence in the Democrats to push this bill through to the end.  Let me lay out my rationale.

1. As I wrote yesterday, Payola Palooza is now in play.   Any Democrat member that Pelosi or Reid would need in a second vote, now have a price tag on their head.  Most Senators have already been bought.  Representatives go for much much less.  While there is a lot of talk about deficits, Harry, Nancy nor President Obama really care about them when it comes to passing this legislation.
2. Obama is in trouble.  Read any poll you want and it is clear that Obama’s approval is falling on all political fronts.  Heck, even African Americans are down in the 60% approval level.  If Obama fails to get placebocare passed it could be argued that he is Ofer in his first year with no where to go but down.  All of his chips are in on placebocare.   He’ll get Nancy and Harry to do everything possible to keep him from becoming irrelevant before his first State of the Union.
3. Elections – all the talk about Democrats having to face the electorate is a smoke screen.  Nancy Pelosi has already said she expects to lose up to 40 seats next year.  She considers these “transitional” seats.  She believes that they are the Democrat version of RINOS and should be replaced by more vigilant Marxists! 
4. To the argument that Birdman makes about self preservation, I present exhibit A.  Expect to see many more “centrist” Democrats to announce their “retirements” in the next few weeks.  These are people who know they are dead people walking i.e. vote for the bill and they won’t get reelected, vote against the bill and Pelosi will have them cleaning the Republican urinals until they retire.  Oh, and if you think, “poor people, they’ll be out of work!”  Don’t worry, for anyone that goes willingly, Nancy has cushy, high paying and high pension jobs lined up for each of the votes she needs to buy.
5. It doesn’t have XXXXX (name your favorite feature.)  Sorry, it doesn’t matter whether it is the public option, abortion, the deficit or any of the other items id’d as “deal breakers.”  None of them will ultimately be “deal breakers!”  In the end, the far left, the moderate left and all other versions of the left will accept anything that will pass with the understanding that if they pass it now, regardless of what is actually passed, they can fix it later.  Perfection is not required, passing something, anything is!
6. Finally, history!  There is no doubt that every Democrat looks at this bill as historical.  While I admit to not understanding it, I see a similar pattern with placebocare as there was with the election of Barack Obama.  It was clear from early on that Obama was a Marxist and apologist who would do this country harm.  Objective people, people who actually wanted to look at the information, saw through the veneer of public persona that was being created.  Unfortunately for our country, in the end, too many people got caught up in the sale of “change” and the historicity of the first black president.  Placebocare is on the same track.  Any logical, thinking person can see the line of broken promises we’ll experience if placebocare is based.  That said, this isn’t about logic.  This is all about emotion and history for the Democrats.

There, now you’re on the inside of a debate that Birdman and I have had for several weeks.  Don’t get me wrong, I hope I’m wrong and Birdman is right.  Unfortunately, I’m used to the Democrats going against anything that resembles America but I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised!