Well, we’re through the first round, and it’s time to review the damage so far. First, let’s take the shredded predictions:
The Marquette Care Bear…er, Golden Chickens will be able to beat the rush out of Boise tomorrow.Oops; they somehow survived Utah State.Unfortunately, because they’re the nightcap, the Wisconsin Bagders can’t say the same.Actually, the Badgers managed to come back to force OT and ultimately win.
– Once again, no #16 seed will win. Louisville did have a 1st-half scare, and East Tennessee State almost closed the deal on Pitt. However, the #16s are now a perfect 0-100 in the actual tourney (not counting the play-in game between #64 and #65).
–This year’s Cindy is Butler, with Mississippi State being the lowest-seeded 1st-round winner.Picked the wrong Horizon team; Cleveland State was the lowest-seed 1st-round winner.
–Call me crazy, but I see three Big Ten teams making it out of the first round.Off by 1.
– For those of you participating in the third annual “Which #1 will be knocked out first” poll, I am not calling for a repeat of last year’s all-#1 Final Four. In fact, Pitt and UNC will not make the Sweet 16. Yet to be determined.
Only the safest of predictions came in, and then only because Pitt finally got the choke out of their throats. So, what did that do to the bracket?
– 11 first-round losses
– 5 games completely meaningless to me this weekend
– A quarter of my Elite Eight dead and buried
– My Southern regional champ packed up and back in class
I could look on the bright side and point out my national championship game is intact. However, I tend to say, “I positively hate this fucking place,” when asked for a positive attitude check. Instead, I’ll apply some statistical analysis:
Current-round loss rate – 11/32
Next-round loss rate – 5/16
3rd-round-out loss rate – 1/4 (call it a bit higher)
4th-round-out loss rate – 1/4 (call it a bit lower)
Projected number of missing Sweet 16 teams after 2nd round = 5 + (11 * 11/32) = 9 missing Sweet 16 teams
Projected number of missing Elite 8 teams after 2nd round = 2 + (6 * 5/16) = 4 missing Elite 8 teams
Projected number of missing Final 4 teams after 2nd round = 1 + (3 * 1/4) = 2 missing Final 4 teams
Estimated probability of missing at least one of the National Championship Game teams after the 2nd round = 50%
I could extrapolate further, but it’s too depressing.
