Every 10, 11 or 12 step program realizes that the first step in any of them is to admit you have a problem. Without that self realization, none of the remaining steps will be effective because you don’t believe there is any need for change. That basic and obvious premise is completely missed by the McClatchy folks.
McClatchy took a look at the McCain “Paris” ad and tried to evaluate whether the ad helped or hurt McCain or Obama. After viewing the ad, McClatchy reports that viewers had varying responses:
The emotions most felt by Republicans while watching the ad were “disturbing” (35 percent), “skepticism” (16 percent) and “sadness” (10 percent); Democrats reported “skepticism” (44 percent), “anger” (24 percent) and “disturbing” (14 percent); Independents reported “skepticism” (41 percent), “disturbing” (18 percent) and “anger” (18 percent).
McClatchy positions to minimize any negative impact on Obama’s numbers by saying:
The study, of 320 Americans, found that a majority of Republicans were “disturbed, skeptical” and “saddened” after viewing the ad and that 61 percent of Republicans had a negative view of the ad.
Of course, they also position the “beware of the boogieman” by suggesting that the ads could back fire on McCain:
How successful the ads will be at turning what are widely perceived as Obama’s strengths into weaknesses won’t be known for some time. Experts have warned they could backfire on McCain, making him seem bitter and petty and emphasizing differences between him and Obama.
After allowing the CEO of the Research company to conclude that McCain received no benefit fromt he ad:
“We are not sure whether the negative emotions expressed by viewers were related to their feelings about either candidate or about the way in which the message was delivered,” said Glenn Kessler, president and CEO of HCD Research. “However, we do know that the ad did not move voters and they expressed negative emotions after viewing the ad.”
McCatchy walked right past the results that shows hope from these ads:
Before viewing the ad, 75 percent of the Democrats said they would vote for Obama. After viewing the ad, that percentage was 72, while undecideds rose from 13 to 15 percent and those favoring other candidates rose from 3 to 4 percent.
The number who said they would vote for McCain, however, remained unchanged at 9 percent.
Similar results were recorded for Republicans and Independents. Republican support for Obama dropped from 8 to 6 percent, while McCain’s percentage remained unchanged at 74 percent. Undecideds rose from 16 to 18 percent, however.
Only among independents did the drop in Obama’s percentage, from 44 to 43 percent, accrue to McCain, whose support went from 33 to 34 percent.
(emphasis mine)
Any multistep program, no matter how many steps they have, really boil down to 3 steps:
- Recognize you have a problem
- Determine/analyze why you have that problem
- Determine steps to fix the problem
The “Paris” and “Messiah” ads were never meant to address Steps 2 and 3, those will be handled by other ads. The “Paris” and “Messiah” ads were solely focused on Step 1 and based on the results of this study, they did exactly what they were intended to do: sow a seed of doubt into the minds of people who believed the Messiah’s shtick. In a race as close as this one is expected to be, you only need to remove small percentages to impact the end result.
As a side benefit, it never hurts to feed your base a bit of red meat now and again!
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