Note: I am not endorsing not hoping for Pawlenty as VP. There are many people I would rather see in that slot. This blog is part of “calling ’em like I see ’em.”
Rasmussen Reports has a new Minnesota poll that shows John McCain dramatically closing the gap with his potential Democratic candidates. McCain now leads Clinton by 1 and trails Obama by only 4, both within the margin of error.
Obviously, Obama’s issues with Jeremiah Wright’s statements have led to these increases. I believe that with McCain this close in a state that has been tough to impossible for Republican candidates, Tim Pawlenty moves to the top of McCain’s VP pick list.
While simply putting Pawlenty on the ticket could well put McCain over the top in Minnesota, leveraging him with some other internal Minnesota would dramatically increase the Republican vote here.
Republican Senator Norm Coleman is up for election this year. While the Democratic candidate has not been officially decided, it is likely to be the far left, “comedian” and Air America personality, Al Franken. Coleman will win this race and as he does so, will bring the large “middle” vote in Minnesoat into the Republican column.
Franken’s extreme left views would generally bode well for the ability to have a competitive race with Coleman. However, Franken has a couple of issues. First, we seem to have some schizophrenic disorder that causes us to need to have a far lefty and a Republican (if only in name) (Norm Coleman/Amy Klobuchar, Norm Coleman/Mark Dayton, Rod Grams/Paul Wellstone, Dave Durenberger/Paul Wellston…you get the picture) as Senators at the same time…we can’t seem to make a decision! Since we just elected Amy, the electorate is likely to continue to play both sides and keep a Republican. The biggest issue though is that Franken has been justifiably already positioned by the Coleman campaign as an interloper (just moved back to the state), not really running based on Minnesota support (80% of his donors are from out of state) and as out of touch with “Minnesota Nice” as some of Franken’s own videos would make Jeremiah Wright blush! In a SurveyUSA pollthis week, Coleman is leading Franken by 10 points. Democrats don’t run from behind in Minnesota! Republicans always start from behind and if able to win, do so in the last couple of weeks by a margin of just 2 or 3 points. If you are running that far behind this early as a Democrat, you might as well save your campaign money and plan a much bigger consolation party when it’s all over!
Another issue that will help McCain is a large Republican turn out created by the Minnesota Democrats over reach on Taxes. Both Minnesota chambers became Democratically controlled in 2006. In 2007 we had a budget surplus of $2.2B that was completely spent by the Democratic chambers. This year they are not only wrestling to find a way to plug a nearly $1B general fund shortfall, they have already passed the largest tax increase in Minnesota history in the way of gas taxes and other transportation taxes. The polls show that the public was decidedly against any tax increases yet the Democrats not only increased them but made sure they got their marks in the history books! Republicans are so mad that at least 4 of 6 Republicans who chose not to support Pawlenty’s veto (we only needed 2 of these to sustain) have either had other candidates endorsed for the Republican nomination or have had their endorsement indefinitely withheld. I’ve never seen Republicans so mad and the moderates aren’t far behind. The State races will definitely bring the middle into the Republican column.
So, besides his philosophical alignment with McCain, why will Pawlenty rise in the Veep Sweepstakes? Simple, he’s the visible “leader” of Republicans in Minnesota and will benefit from activity generated for the items noted previously. And, if the trends continue and the solid red states stay solid red, McCain can carry territory with Pawlenty that none of the other discussed candidates can bring. Riding on the internal Minnesota issues, Pawlenty can certainly bring his home state to the McCain win. Pawlenty will also solidify the upper Midwest vote and likely sway: Wisconsin, Survey USA has McCain within 4 of Obama and Iowa where Survey USA has McCain within 6 of Obama, to a win for McCain.
