Revisions/extensions (9:35 am 2/19/2008) – ARG has some fresh numbers from a poll taken 2/17-2/18 that put them more-or-less in alignment with the rest of the polls. However, do note the wild swing on the Dem end, and take with the appropriate amount of salt (and donlt let that stop you from participating in the NRE Spring Hill campaign).
(H/T – Charlie)
We’ve got some fresh numbers on the eve of destructio…er, the primaries:
Public Policy Polling:
Democratic – Barack Obama up 53%-40% (the 2/12 poll had him up 50%-39%; note that they used some special sauce as their “standard turnout” model has Obama up 47%-44%, a gain of 1 point from 2/12)
Republican – John McCain up 50%-39% (the 2/12 poll had him up 53%-32%, and the president of the firm openly wonders if Mike Huckabee can pull off the upset)
American Research Group:
Democratic – Obama up 52%-42% (the 2/6-2/7 poll had Hillary Clinton up 50%-41% and the 2/15-2/16 poll had her up 49%-43%)
Republican – McCain up 51%-43% (the 2/6-2/7 poll had McCain with 51%, Mitt Romney 2nd with 29%, and Huckabee behind “undecided”, Ron Paul and “somebody else” at 4%, and the 2/15-2/16 poll had McCain up on Huckabee 47%-44%)
Random thoughts:
– While the polls are showing some tightening between McCain and Huckabee, I will note that just about every pollster got just about every call of a late “surge” wrong, from Thompson’s South Carolina “surge” to Mike Huckabee’s Virginia “surge”.
– The ARG is proving to be one hell of an outlier. RealClearPolitics’ rolling 7-day average had Obama up by 4.3% in 3 polls taken between 2/8 and 2/14. Note; this has changed 180 degrees to the Public Policy serious sauce.
– Related to that, that’s some serious sauce from Public Policy in their pro-Obama numbers. As I noted, the “standard turnout” model shows a much smaller lead for Obama.
