No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for February 18th, 2008

Repeating, new polling places in Oak Creek

by @ 22:15. Filed under Politics - Oak Creek.

This is a repeat of last month’s post listing the Oak Creek polling places. They’ll be open from 7 am until 8 pm tomorrow.

Heads up, Oak Creek readers (if I have any, that is). Starting with the February 19 primaries, there are new polling places for those of us in the 1st, 2nd and 6th Aldermanic districts. Also, there is still a temporary relocation of the polling place for those in the 3rd Aldermanic district. You can either go to the city’s website to view, or move your eyes down just a bit…

1st Aldermanic District (Wards 1, 2, 3) – Oak Creek-Franklin School Administration Building, 7630 S. 10th St. (just south of the divided roadway portion between Rawson and Drexel)

2nd Aldermanic District (Wards 4, 5, 6) – Oak Creek West Middle School, 8401 S. 13th St. (between Drexel and Puetz)

3rd Aldermanic District (Wards 7, 8, 9) – Temporarily at the Oak Creek Community Center, 8580 S. Howell Ave. (between the library and the National Guard depot). Do note that beginning with the fall primary election on September 9, 2008, this polling place will be back at its regular place at Oak Creek East Middle School, 9330 S. Shepard Ave. (between Puetz and Ryan, though in the new building)

4th Aldermanic District (Wards 10, 11, 12) – Carollton Elementary School, 8965 S. Carollton Dr. (no change)

5th Aldermanic District (Wards 13, 14, 15) – Meadowview Elementary School, 10420 S. McGraw Dr. (no change)

6th Aldermanic District (Wards 16, 17, 18) – Oak Creek Community Center, 8580 S. Howell Ave. (just north of the previous polling place at City Hall)

My personal recommendations

by @ 19:31. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

Tomorrow is the Wisconsin Presidential and non-partisan spring election primary. As there are no non-partisan primaries in Oak Creek, I have but two recommendations, one of which I can’t vote in but for which I am recommending a friend:

Presidential Primary

Yes, Hell has frozen over and is in the process of being crushed by glaciers. We have nothing left but ‘Rats and those that, but for an issue or two, would be happier as ‘Rats. On the RepubicRAT side, we have the second coming of Jimmy Carter in Mike Huckabee (who, but for God and guns, would fit right in with the ‘Rats), John McCain (who twice in the last 7 years attempted to join the ‘Rats) and Ron Paul (who, but for the size of government, would fit right in with the ‘Rats). On the DhimmiRAT side, we have a pair of unreconstructed lieberals in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. So, what’s a charter member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy to do?

Easy; do to the ‘Rats what they did to the Pubbies and put forth the weaker candidate in the opposition party. In my humble opinion, that weaker candidate is Hillary Clinton. She has less charisma than Obama and should have the effect of rallying conservatives against her. Moreover, if she does win in November, she should have shorter coattails than Obama, and, depending on the “time of the month”, might be marginally better than Obama (after all, it was Obama and not Clinton that was 2007’s most lieberal Senator). Of course, the majority of the time, the two are indistingishable from Fidel Castro, Iosef Stalin and Karl Marx, but would you rather have 99% of Marx or 100% of him?

Kenosha’s 5th Aldermanic District

I wholeheartedly recommend Kathy Carpenter in Kenosha’s 5th Aldermanic District. I’ll let her make the case:

As far as my reasons for entering the race for alderman, there were several. First, I love Kenosha. I started my life off traveling a lot. My father was in the Navy.

I spent a lifetime looking for a home, a place to settle, a place to lay down roots. I found it in Kenosha. Kenosha is home.

I believe in Kenosha and her people so much, that I want to be part of her future because Kenosha is part of my future. Does that make sense?

Also, the tax issue is huge in Kenosha. I have talked to liberals, conservatives and independents and they all say the same thing- Kenosha’s taxes are too high. We do not get enough bang for our buck. Citizens are frustrated with the way our government has been spending.

Poll-a-palooza

by @ 19:05. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

Revisions/extensions (9:35 am 2/19/2008) – ARG has some fresh numbers from a poll taken 2/17-2/18 that put them more-or-less in alignment with the rest of the polls. However, do note the wild swing on the Dem end, and take with the appropriate amount of salt (and donlt let that stop you from participating in the NRE Spring Hill campaign).

(H/T – Charlie)

We’ve got some fresh numbers on the eve of destructio…er, the primaries:

Public Policy Polling:
Democratic – Barack Obama up 53%-40% (the 2/12 poll had him up 50%-39%; note that they used some special sauce as their “standard turnout” model has Obama up 47%-44%, a gain of 1 point from 2/12)
Republican – John McCain up 50%-39% (the 2/12 poll had him up 53%-32%, and the president of the firm openly wonders if Mike Huckabee can pull off the upset)

American Research Group:
Democratic – Obama up 52%-42% (the 2/6-2/7 poll had Hillary Clinton up 50%-41% and the 2/15-2/16 poll had her up 49%-43%)
Republican – McCain up 51%-43% (the 2/6-2/7 poll had McCain with 51%, Mitt Romney 2nd with 29%, and Huckabee behind “undecided”, Ron Paul and “somebody else” at 4%, and the 2/15-2/16 poll had McCain up on Huckabee 47%-44%)

Random thoughts:

– While the polls are showing some tightening between McCain and Huckabee, I will note that just about every pollster got just about every call of a late “surge” wrong, from Thompson’s South Carolina “surge” to Mike Huckabee’s Virginia “surge”.
– The ARG is proving to be one hell of an outlier. RealClearPolitics’ rolling 7-day average had Obama up by 4.3% in 3 polls taken between 2/8 and 2/14. Note; this has changed 180 degrees to the Public Policy serious sauce.
– Related to that, that’s some serious sauce from Public Policy in their pro-Obama numbers. As I noted, the “standard turnout” model shows a much smaller lead for Obama.

Buyers are Liars (and what that has to do with Republican prospects)

by @ 17:26. Filed under Miscellaneous.

…so said a realtor that we worked with as we finished our tour of penance in Iowa and moved back to Minnesota. His point was that people shopping for a home will tell you all kinds of things that they “have to have” in their new home. However, when it came right down to it, they would be flexible on nearly all “essentials” if they found a house that met their basic needs and their budget. What’s this got to do with the Republicans?

Rasmussen Reports has a pollthat tracks monthly the generic preference for control of Congress. If you look at the box in the upper right you’ll see that the R’s have been pretty much at a double digit disadvantage from the oldest date listed, April ’07. No surprise here, the MSM has been telling us constantly how much more Joe Lunchbucket and Susan Soccermom like the Rats over the Rs. Then, an odd thing happened on the way towards elections. Take a look at the recent few months. All of a sudden the Rs are back to low single digit differences…in fact, I’d guess that they are probably within the error rate of the poll.   Heard any of that from the MSM?

So what happened? It could be a number of things; progress in Iraq, Bill’s racist comments, Nancy and Harry’s not so great adventure. I don’t have the evidence yet but I think it’s the economy stupid. Take a look at when the numbers turned, just in the past couple of months. What’s new since then, nothing really except that most folks have become convinced that the economy needs help.

Polls have been consistently showingthat the Rats are thought to be better at the economy. That never made any sense to me especially in the large margins that the polls showed. A real disconnect for me was after the last Rat debate when they talked to their focus group and asked about tax policy. All but 3 “independents” in the room said they were all for changing the taxes as Hill and BO want to do. Now unless they “clean up real nice,” these folks looked to be a pretty good cross section of America. It is/was inconceivable to me that the majority of them would see a tax increase and be OK with that. I think that as Hill and BO have continued to “out left” each other and Nancy and Harry have had their picture placed in all dictionarys beside the word “inept”, people have started to do some of the simple math of what a Rat president and Rat Congress will mean to their pocketbooks.  

Regardless of who the Rats choose this Presidential election is going to be one of the starkest in terms policies and their impact on the average American.   Some have argued to the contrary but I still think America has an IQ level that is above the world average.   The Republicans need to be clear and concise in showing their ability to manage economic issues.   If they do, it will be a huge plus for November.   If they don’t or muddle it, we may as well start looking for property in Mexico.

Post-Daytona 500 thoughts

by @ 13:46. Filed under Sports.

I suppose the good news is neither Hendrick nor Toyota took the race. Random thoughts:

– Why would Robbie Gordon go from Ford to Dodge? I mean, Dodge is the ugly red-headed stepchild of NASCAR now that Toyota’s in with Gibbs. Wait, I just answered the question.
– Maybe Hendrick Motorsports isn’t so invulnerable after all. Their engines broke before the Duels, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s shift knob broke, then Jeff Gordon’s suspension broke. By the end, the Official Driver of the 2008 Hen¢AR Sprint Cup season had nobody left to help him.
– The Toyotas are pretty damn strong. They’re the only cars that could routinely pull off single-car moves up through the field. Guess having 15 horses at the rear wheels on the Official Team of Hen¢AR and 30 on the field does wonders.
– The leading candidate to be out at Roush Fenway when they drop to 4 teams is now David Ragan. He’s Kyle Busch without the talent, as he ruined Matt Kenseth’s and my day by mistaking the DeWalt Ford for a vacant piece of Daytona real estate long before the last lap.
– While 465 beats 435, 870 beats 465. Busch the older is a team player, while Busch the younger isn’t. Nice job upsetting the applecart, Penske boys; enjoy the Room of Doom next week at California as Brian and company begins Operation: Vengeance.
– When Tony Stewart finally wins a Daytona 500, will he get a receiving line like Dale Earnhardt did?

Yes, I will be live-blogging tomorrow

by @ 12:23. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

I took the weekend off (way off) after following the Republicans around southeast Wisconsin Thursday and Friday. I know, I still owe you write-ups, but all the Gorebal Warming the candidates brought with them knocked me flatter than the front end of Matt Kenseth’s car after David Ragan got done mistaking it for a vacant piece of Daytona.

Anyway, I’ll be here tomorrow night no later than 7:45 pm (Central, of course), 15 minutes before the polls close, for some live-blogging. Because I’ll likely be crunching numbers as the majority of the delegates on both sides of the aisle are awarded on a per-district basis, and at this point there is no single source for me to get those numbers, I doubt it will be a drunkblog on my end; that doesn’t preclude you from drinking (in fact, I encourage that).

To send yourself a reminder, either use the truncated box at the top right of the blog or the not-truncated one here:

Freedom isn’t free….even in Berkeley, CA!

by @ 9:19. Filed under Law and order.

You’ve got to love this! It has cost Berkeley, CA nearly $100K to pay for police coverage of the protest at the Marine recruiting office.

So I’m thinking, rather than hold back the earmarks from them, maybe we should just get the Marines to open 10 more offices in Berkeley. With 10 more offices the protesters could bankrupt Berkeley  within a year!

Hillary 4 U N Me

by @ 8:41. Filed under Miscellaneous, Politics - National.

If you haven’t seen the latest song (unofficial but no less serious) for the Hillary campaign you need to stop and take it in.

People of Wisconsin unite! Vote for Hillary! Stand as the Hillary Firewall tomorrow!

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