Nothing much has changed on the Dem end of the pool from the first-blush look. Edwards has hung on a bit longer than I thought, but he’s still a distant third, with Obama a distant second, to Clinton. Nobody has yet dropped out, and the DNC is serious about punishing states that leapfrog Iowa/Nevada/New Hampshire/Super-Duper Oversized Tuesday, so that’s the left-end update.
Things, however, are far more interesting on the Pubbie end, with a heap of changes from the first-blush look. I was a bit off in saying Tommy Thompson would be the first out (Jim Gilmore was), though I will claim that he’s the first one I named that departed. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson has finally entered, and it appears likely everybody that’s running is in. ‘Tis time to go through each one rather briefly:
Sam Brownback – Somebody please tell me his platform beyond amnesty and a 3-nation Iraq “solution”. I just don’t know what it is. Oh, and he has no chance.
Mike Huckabee – He’s become the anointed placeholder/dark-horse in the previous absence of Fred Thompson. Unfortunately, he’s a proven tax-hiker, and he supports the 23% 30% “Fair”Tax. Beyond that, he’s vanilla.
Duncan Hunter – Repeating my early analysis, he’s a “mere” Congressman. That, along with a near-invisibility to the press, has doomed his candidacy to failure. I hope he’s at least on the short list for VP because he is without question the most-conservative of the bunch.
Rudy Giuliani – For a conservative, he is truly a one-trick pony. Fortunately for him, that one trick is the GWOT, and he’s not afraid to call out the enemy as “radical” Islam. Also fortunately for him, he is for the moment the most-liberal non-toofer in the race, which means the media is fawning over him. Unfortunately, the rest of his record is anything but good (fee tax-hiker, gun-grabber, pro-abortion, need I go on?), and if he receives the nomination, he would lose all the media at that moment just like John McCain lost them when Giuliani joined the race.
John McCain – I’ll say one thing; he is quoted most often by his opponents. If anything, he is even stronger on the GWOT than Giuliani, even though he wrongly believes that if we don’t torture, the Islamists won’t. Unfortunately, there’s already three strikes against him (4 if you include his extreme dislike for Christian conservatives); an utter refusal to consider tax cuts as a way to shrink government, McCain-Feingold, and amnesty for illegal aliens.
Ron Paul – I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again and again and again until the convention (I don’t see the toofer conceding until then); Paul is in the wrong party and in the wrong era.
Mitt Romney – With the collapse of McCain, the Republican version of Bill Clinton emerged as the early challenger to the media candidate. Almost all of his conservative views have only manifested themselves in the last 13 years. Of course, the fact they manifested themselves that all in Massachusetts is a plus, but not enough in my mind to override my concerns of his earlier liberalism.
Tom Tancredo – I thought he killed his campaign when he called for a full-stop on immigration a couple debates ago, then drew down his staff. Like Hunter and Paul, he’s “only” a Congressman, and he is a one-trick pony on immigration.
Fred Thompson – He’s said the right things in his run-up, but like Romney, he has a few liberal skeletons in his closet. However, do not underestimate the power of height and TV presence.
So, what’s next? The cracked hard-boiled eggshell has Brownback, Hunter and Tancredo all drop out by the end of this month. It is likely that Huckabee will follow them before Iowa as he realizes he was just a placeholder. Beyond Iowa, states are leap-frogging each other too much right now to predict who will have the big mo going into Super-Duper Oversized Tuesday, but I do know that it won’t be McCain or Paul.
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