I’m sure you’ve heard the spin that the unemployment rate in Wisconsin dropped 3/10ths of a point to a seasonally-adjusted 7.9% last month, and that it was a full percentage point lower than that of June 2009. A deeper look at the numbers, however, show that it’s not because private entities are hiring, but rather people no longer even trying to look for work.
First, let’s take the seasonally-adjusted numbers for a comparison between May and June. While the ranks of the unemployed (or at least those who looked for work in the prior 4 weeks) dropped by 9,700, the ranks of the employed also dropped by 3,900. That means the civilian labor force dropped by 13,600, or 0.45%. Meanwhile, both private-sector employers (to the tune of 1,000) and government (to the tune of 7,200, half by the federal government as the temporary census workers were let go, the other half evenly split between state and local governments as the school year ended) shed a total of 8,200 jobs.
Next, let’s compare the non-adjusted numbers between June 2009 and June 2010. 41,600 (or 1.48%) fewer people were employed this June versus last June, and 39,400 (or 13.71%) fewer people were on the actively-seeking-work portion of the unemployment rolls, resulting in a civilian labor force drop of 81,000 (or 2.57%). The private sector cut 23,100 (or 0.98%) jobs, while government added 5,000 (or 1.17%) jobs. While state government did cut 3,200 (or 3.33%) jobs, the federal government grew by 4,400 (or 14.72%) and local government grew by 3,800 (or 1.26%). The only sectors that added jobs in the last year were mining (+300/9.38%), durable-goods manufacturing (+700/0.27%), admin support/waste management (+5,100/4.36%; some of which are likely local government), education (+3,000/6.16%; mostly state and local government), health care/social assistance (+4,100/1.12%; with a significant government component), and accomodation/food service (+4,800/2.09%).
Hopefully Wisconsin can survive the local version of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy – the DDS (Doyle-Decker-Sheridan) economy until that troika leaves power in the state. I don’t think the state can survive another full year of this.
“I’m sure you’ve heard the spin that the unemployment rate in Wisconsin dropped 3/10ths of a point to a seasonally-adjusted 7.9% last month, and that it was a full percentage point lower than that of June 2009.”
I’m not sure who’s spinning the recent drop in the unemployment rate as positive news. To my knowledge, no one is spinnig this data. The data is clear. People haved stopped looking for work by the thousands, which has lower the unemployment rate.
“Hopefully Wisconsin can survive the local version of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy – the DDS (Doyle-Decker-Sheridan) economy until that troika runs the state. I don’t think the state can survive another full year of this.”
You’re grossly overstating the impact of the “POR and DDS”. The private sector is not hiring people because they don’t have any customers. It’s that simple. Unless you’re willing to let Uncle Sam drop money from helicopters, the situation is not going to be much better in a year.
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