The “consensus” thinking has been that as McCain moved into the general campaign, he would need to make overtures to We conservative folks. The argument is that the pick of a VP may well show us that he is “listening” and “reaching out.”
All of that “thinking” held while there was concern that a general election would be a close, hard fought affair where McCain would need to not just get, but enthusiastically motivate conservatives in order to get enough turn out to win against a movment force like Obama.
Then along comes Jeremiah Wright…..
I know a couple of days does not a trend make but….the polls have shifted hard, quickly. There will certainly be the hard cores who believe the stuff that Wright is saying and will continue to support Obama. However, I think there is a larger group, particularly those who consider themselves “moderates” that will find it impossible to support Obama with Wright in tow.
If the polls continue to show McCain with a growing lead over either Democratic candidate he may not be concerned about getting the Conservative vote. I’m afraid that any hope (not the Obama kind) that conservatives had of McCain feeling motivated to “show us some love” and throw us a bone could go out the window along with Obama’s liklihood of being elected for anything more than just another lying, graft receiving Senator.
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The wipeout of the “moderate” half of Obama makes things a bit more “interesting”.
I suppose the question, assuming of course Obama is the Dem nominee, is whether those “moderates” that both Obama and McCain are courting, much like Generation Y that you pointed out earlier, are more likely to be turned off by just Obama or by the entire process. If it’s the former, McCain definitely will not try to court us. If it’s the latter, which I suspect it will be because that has been the long-term trend, it will be a “base” turnout election and McCain will still be in trouble without a major effort to heal the breach.
If, however, it is Clinton that is the Dem nominee, McCain will need to give better than a token effort.
McCain is too smart to think this polling is going to last long. When the Wright situation fades to the background it will loses its power to tilt polls in McCain’s favor.