As usual, the gang is liveblogging. The fun and (hopefully) the kills begin in less than 4 minutes on your local Fox station (unless you’re on the Left Coast, in which case you’re behind by 3 hours).
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The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.
As usual, the gang is liveblogging. The fun and (hopefully) the kills begin in less than 4 minutes on your local Fox station (unless you’re on the Left Coast, in which case you’re behind by 3 hours).
I’m a bit under the weather, which explains the lateness. How about some Jimmy Buffet to make up for that?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhiTsLr29XA[/youtube]
A couple of housekeeping items that I’m a part of:
– If it’s Monday, the gang at Blogs.4Bauer is live-blogging.
– The January edition of Drinking Right is tomorrow, same place as always (Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee), same time as always (7 pm).
President elect Barck Obama and team have put out what passes for “detail” in the Obama administration, about Obama’s planned stimulus plan. You can read the plan here.
I have to give Obama and his team credit. When Paulson came screaming that the world was coming to and end unless he got $750 billion, he only had 3 pages to outline his plan. Obama and team, screaming that the world will come to an end unless they get $775 billion, have managed to use an entire 14 pages to outline their plan. Well, unless you take out the title page, table of contents and extra white space…then you’re probably down to just 9 or 10 pages. Even so, Obama has managed to double the number of pages explaining his $775 billion plan. I guess the extra $25 billion does buy something!
Christina Romer, Obama’s nominee for chair of the Council of Economic Advisors is one of the authors of the plan/document.
In a paper that Romer published in 2007, she concluded that tax cuts stimulate the economy 3x the amount of the tax cut. In other words, for ever dollar of tax cut the economy grows by $3. In Obama’s plan however, Romer and her coauthor argue that “tax cuts” will generate less than $1 of economic stimulus for each $1 of “tax cut.” How can those be reconciled?
The reconciliation is pretty simple; Obama’s plan has no tax cuts. Tax cuts are permanent tax reductions. Rather, what the plan offers is a rebate similar to what was done last year. They are being called “tax cuts” only because the mechanism proposed to effect them is tied to taxes so as give Republicans and some fiscal conservative Democrats, cover to agree to mortgage our children’s future.
Romer is a well known and respected economist. That last fact she allows permanent tax cuts and one time credits to be conflated in this plan is at best, disingenuous and at worse political dishonesty. In either event, obvious manipulation and misuse of accepted terms as these, calls wholly into question the integrity and accuracy of a plan that even according to its authors is fraught with:
uncertainty (that) is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.
Republicans in Congress ought to be smarter than to fall for a one time credit that is called a “tax cut.” They ought to be, we’ll have to see if they are.
I’ll be live-blogging the start of Season 7 over at Blogs.4Bauer.
(H/T for the new news – Amanda Carpenter, H/T for the DHDNT concept – Jessi Olson)
My gas price – $1.879 just outside the bunker
Why do I have a special Sunday edition of Drill Here, Drill Now? It’s because Senate Majority Leader Dingy Harry Reid (D-OPEC) and 65 of his fellow members of the bipartisan Party-In-Government used their first floor vote of the session to lock up the not-yet-developed energy-rich land to the tune of $10 billion. Even though that’s supposedly short of a veto (which I hope would happen if this shows up before noon Eastern 1/20), the fact that there were several ‘Rats missing in action means that my prediction in the Weekend Scramble that the pork would net a veto-proof majority came through.
There is one place left to stop this, and thanks to San Fran Nan’s (D-CA) machinations, it is likely that the House will join the Senate in not allowing any minority-written amendments.
As I type, the road teams have went 3-0 in the first 3 games of the NFL Divisional Playoff round…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRbPWcLode0[/youtube]
Let’s see if some snow can stop the last road team before Jack comes back.
Time to go deep into the archives for the weekend…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mD6YvuBIVA[/youtube]
We’ve got the 7th season of Jack starting tonight at 7 pm (Central; consult your local listings for other time zones) on Fox (Channel 6/6.1 in Milwaukee, 506 on the Milwaukee-area Time Warner Cable HD box, consult your local listings for the channel in your area). I’ll be helping live-blog over at Blogs4Bauer.
The second heaping will be up shortly.
2.5, 2.5 million jobs:
3.0, 3.0 million jobs:
3.5, 3.5 million jobs:
And the latest:
Clearly, President elect Barack Obama is “The One.” There is no further discussion, the debate is over. There must now be a consensus amongst the masses. Not since the miracle of the loaves and fishes, have we seen an earthly being create any outcome desired simply with the imposition of an individual’s will.
Is Obama really that tone deaf or naive to not understand the credibility hit his already questionable plan takes, each time he announces a new “outcome of the day?”
President elect Barack Obama made his first speech pitching the need for a massive government infusion to stimulate the economy.
Parts of Obama’s speech sounded eerily like statements made last September as Ben Bernanke talked about the need for his bail out program. Statements like:
We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime.
I don’t believe it’s too late to change course, but it will be if we don’t take dramatic action as soon as possible.
and
We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world.
I’ve always been skeptical of the “don’t ask questions, just do as I say approach.” While there are times when debate about how/if/when is not helpful, like when your house is on fire, most situations are not that way. Most situations benefit from some discussion, debate if you like, amongst folks with varying perspectives. In all but the most rare situations you will find that this debate makes for a better action and end product.
There’s a lot to not like about Obama’s proposed stimulus package: the size of it, the increase in government employment, one time tax cuts that were proven last year to have little effect stimulating the economy. However, there was a statement in Obama’s speech that clinched my opposition to his plan. A statement that was intended by Obama, to cause me to agree with his approach did just the opposite. What was the statement? It was near the end of his speech:
That’s why I’m calling on all Americans – Democrats and Republicans – to put good ideas ahead of the old ideological battles; a sense of common purpose above the same narrow partisanship; and insist that the first question each of us asks isn’t "What’s good for me?" but "What’s good for the country my children will inherit?"
Six months ago it is unlikely that many of us had ever used the word “Trillion” in a conversation without it meaning some astronomical amount that it was not credible; it was a charicature of a real number. Today, the folks in Washington talk about trillions of dollars of debt in an off hand manner, as if there were no repercussions or consequences to adding debt in multiples of trillions.
It doesn’t matter who or what your are, an individual, a family, a business or even the government, there are consequences to excessive debt. Unfortunately, the folks in Washington have learned nothing from the sub prime bust and see no problem with dramatically increasing the governments debt. But, I do.
What Barack Obama doesn’t understand is that if we really did make this decision based upon what was good for our children, rather than what was good for us, we would not move forward with his stimulus plan. This stimulus plan is focused on removing some rather minimal and at worst, inconvenient pain from us and loading a great big debt load, along with further government interference on the lives of the Shoelets.
“It’s for the children” may make a good tag line if your campaigning to add a pool to the local high school. In this case, if it’s really for the children, then don’t do it, they’ll do much better without it.
Yesterday, I had a brief piece on Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker’s refusal to belly up to the bailout teat. Predictably, ALL the teat-suckers, from the usual suspects with Ds behind their name (or those that would have Ds there if the County Board were a partisan office) to the opportunistic “business leaders” who have become dependent on the teat, attempted to throw Walker under the bus. Let me put it this way; they don’t know Scott. He launched a two-front counterattack this morning with WTMJ-AM’s Charlie Sykes. While you listen to a poor-quality rip of the interview (the better-quality version starts at the 37:39 mark of Part 1 of the official podcast), you may as well read the e-mail (“borrowed” from Charlie):
How many people would take a gift of $1,000 and go out and buy a $60,000 sports car? While the gift is nice, it will not make the monthly car payments that are too large for the average budget. The same is true with the (so-called) stimulus package.
Federal money nearly always comes with strings attached. In fact, most federal transportation grants require a 20% (or greater) local match. "Free money" sounds nice but what happens when state and local governments cannot afford the match? If Milwaukee County receives $50 million for infrastructure projects under this formula, taxpayers in the county would have to come up with an extra $10 million. Does anyone think we have an extra $10 million in this budget climate?
A real economic stimulus will put money in the hands of consumers – and not the government. Tax cuts work. They did for Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and they are exactly what John F. Kennedy called for in the 1960s. Each time, our nation got out of a recession by putting more money back into the hands of the taxpayers. The choice is simple: do we bail out failed governments with budget deficits or do we stimulate the economy and put more people back to work with real tax cuts at the federal, state and local levels? I choose the program that truly puts people back to work!
For the “benefit” of the outstate critics (I’m looking directly at you, Recess Supervisor), I’ll twist the knife just a bit – if adding “infrastructure” for the sake of adding “infrastructure” or creating make-work jobs were the solution, northern Wisconsin would be the economic magnet of the world.
I do need to give a shout-out to my county supervisor, Paul Cesarz. At the end of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story linked to above, he shows that he also gets the fact that resurrecting the Works Progress Administration will do no better the second time around.
Dear President elect Obama,
Before you charge head long into this:
Or this:
You may want to read, and seriously consider the implications of this:
And this:
Sincerely,
Concerned Taxpayer
Here’s the boil down folks:
As of the end of October, before the really BIG debt sales, the US had increased it’s borrowings from foreign countries by 32% or $743B. Of that increase, China took 26%, The United Kingdom took 28%, Caribbean banking centers took 14% and the remainder was spread throughout the world including $46 B to countries noted as “oil exporting countries.”
Do you see anyone in the current list of buyers that looks like their economy is doing well?
Do you see anyone in the current list that you would expect to be able to not only maintain their current debt purchases, but with softening economies, double or triple their purchases of US debt?
If China, who currently buys 26% of our debt, decides to cut back, do you see anyone ready, willing and able to not only increase their current purchases but pick up China’s part?
Obama and his administration have become solely focused on “stimulating the economy” and have gone so far as to say that they are not concerned about the consequences. Somehow they would have us believe that they will find a magic pill to deal with those consequences when they come up. The problem with this thinking is that it is the exact thinking that got us into this situation.
When Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke kept interest rates abnormally low from a historical to fuel growth for the past 10 years they didn’t worry about consequences. Frankly, they didn’t think there were consequences. Turns out they were wrong. Now we know there will be consequences and we’re choosing to ignore them.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice….
It’s time for a deep cut…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V184OzzaH-M[/youtube]
I WAS going to try to keep it under a baker’s dozen today, but there’s just too much goodness out there. I know I left more than a few bits out, so feed me.
When asked today, what he thought about Ronald Burris being seated by the Senate, Barack Obama said:
“I know Roland Burris. I think he’s a fine public servant. If he gets seated, then I’m going to work with Roland Burris just like I worked with all the other senators to make sure that the people of Illinois and the people of the country are served.”
Now I understand the whole “there’s only one President at a time,” theory. It basically allows Obama to pick and choose which topics he wants to weigh in on and which he wants to be second guessing the current administration on. However, if there was ever a topic that Obama should have an opinion on wouldn’t you think it would be this one?
One of the things that I find completely amazing in the Burris saga is that Obama has had absolutely no comments about Reid’s refusal to seat the person who would be the only African American in the Senate.
According to the Chicago Sun-TimesHarry Reid talked to Illinois Governor Blagojevich telling him who he would accept as Blagojevich’s appointment. According to the Sun-Times, Reid specifically lobbied against each of the potential candidates who were African American.
Under normal circumstances I wouldn’t even consider Reid’s comments as potentially racist. But, that was before I saw the light according to Barack. It is now clear to me that Reid’s insistence on not seating any of the African American candidates was specifically racist. I only need think back to Obama’s perspective on a similar situation during the campaign.
When I look at the three candidates that Reid specifically didn’t want nominated, I think “they don’t look like any of those presidents on the dollar bills.” Nor for that matter did any of them look like any of the other Senators seated in the chamber. If the reasoning was good enough for Barack as a reason to become President why wouldn’t it be good enough to seat Roland Burris?
President Elect Barack Obama gave an extended interview to CNBC today. Much of the interview focused on the economy and the stimulus package. The full transcript is here. The size of the stimulus package was discussed in this exchange:
HARWOOD: It looks like it’s going to be at the high end of your range, around $775 billion.
Pres.-elect OBAMA: That’s correct.
HARWOOD: If it’s correct that, as your aides have said, the danger is doing too little rather than doing too much…
Pres.-elect OBAMA: Right.
HARWOOD: …why stop at $775 billion? Why not go to the $1.2 trillion that some economists have recommended? …
Pres.-elect OBAMA: Well, first of all I think it’s important to note that every economist, conservative or liberal, at this point agrees that we have to have a substantial recovery plan that helps to jump-start the economy, that short term it’s going to be expensive, but it would be much more expensive to see the economy continue in the tailspin that it’s been going in. We’ve seen ranges from 800 to 1.3 trillion and our attitude was that given the legislative process, if we start towards the low end of that, we’ll see how it develops. We are concerned…
HARWOOD: It’s going to get bigger.
Pres.-elect OBAMA: Well, we don’t know yet. But what we are concerned about is making sure that the money is spent wisely, that there’s oversight, that there’s transparency… (emphasis mine)
Transparency and oversight are great but what’s this nonsense about starting at the low end and negotiating up? Didn’t Obama just yesterday say:
“he will not allow Congress to attach any of those earmarks — lawmaker’s pet projects — to the stimulus bill.”
If no “pork,” “pet projects” or “earmarks” are added to the bill, and Barack has done his homework, how would the stimulus bill grow by up to 80% from what Obama is proposing? Maybe Obama is taking Harry Reid to heart when he was quoted as saying:
I will tell him. "¦ I do not work for Barack Obama.
The overpopulated restaurant market explains the closure of Heinemann’s Fox Point and Brookfield restaurants, but there is an interesting line in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story that relates to its Milwaukee restuarant and commissary –
(Heinemann’s co-owner Peggy) Burns also blamed the new Milwaukee ordinance that requires employers in the city to provide sick days to their workers.
I’m shocked, SHOCKED that a business that operates at the margin would go under because it is being forced to pay for 9 days of paid sick leave vacation.
Revisions/extensions (8:30 pm 1/7/2009) – I need a copy editor.
Andy Barr at Politico brings the sad news. Jack Kemp, former Buffalo Bills quarterback, Representative, Secretary of HUD and GOP vice-presidential candidate, has cancer. My prayers go out to him and his family.
JammieWearingFool found former Clinton-era National Security Advisor Sandy Burgla…er, Burger giving DCI-Designate (and fellow Clintonista) Leon Panetta a rather dubious endorsement. From the Washington Post story:
Samuel R. “Sandy” Berger, Lake’s deputy before becoming national security adviser himself, said that Panetta “was part of the decision-making process for every single issue we were dealing with, whether this was in the Oval Office with the president or the Cabinet Room — the Middle East, Kosovo, China. He was a part of a small group of people who advised the president how to proceed on strategy and substance.”
That would be the Middle East where the USS Cole got all-but-blown out of the water and where Hamas and the PLO got rewarded for decades of terrorism with bases from which to conduct the next phase of the destruction of Israel, the Kosovo where an F-117 got shot down to prop up separatist Islamists, and a Red China that cemented its position as the low-price importer of goods to the US.
I was actually neutral on Panetta’s pending appointment until this came out. Allow me to borrow JWF’s words – “That alone is enough to disqualify him.”
(H/T – Lemur King)
I don’t know how everybody in my overstuffed feed reader missed this one when Politico’s The Scorecard reported this gem of a quote from Senate Majority Leader “Dingy” Harry Reid (D-NV) on Monday:
"Norm Coleman will never ever serve [again] in the Senate," Reid told Politico’s Manu Raju. "He lost the election. He can stall things, but he’ll never serve in the Senate."
News flash to Reid – your boy Stuart Small…er, Al Franken does not have his Certificate of Election yet, and it looks like nobody will get it until Franken’s carefully-engineered 1,000-vote gain from election night gets examined in the light of a courtroom. If the challenges are addressed in Coleman’s favor, Franken won’t even have a cancelled provisional certificate to wave in front of the Senate like John Durkin (D-NH) successfully did.
I wonder if the Dingy One really wants to go down that road, especially considering he’s up for re-election in 2010.
Ed Morrissey has the oh-so-delicious video of Ann Coulter filleting Matt Lauer on the “Today” show. I know it’s not Allahpundit with the video, but Ed’s the next best thing (especially since they both blog at Hot Air), so the ban is over. That won’t stop me from ridiculing NBC at every opportunity though.
On a related note, I’m now taking odds on whether Ed gets Coulter on The Ed Morrissey Show before her next NBC family appearance.
Danger, Will Robinson. It’s the first hump day of the year…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmALL-V74Po[/youtube]
There is one good thing about an overbloated feed reader; I never run out of reading material. For that, I thank everybody I read.
Or at least adding Moxie to the oversized roll. I still have to collate the feed of bloat, the roll of bloat, and the blogs of those I follow on Twitter and Facebook into a unified mess, so I’ll get there eventually.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that, unlike Gov. Jim Doyle (looking for $3.7 billion) and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (bellying up to the teat with a $599 million “wish list”, quoting the story), Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker isn’t asking for any federal money despite some serious funding “dilemas”, including the unmentioned multi-hundred-million-dollar pension fuckup from prior years. Quoting Walker:
All we are asking for is “do no harm”. I’m not asking for any nrew projects or things to be done here.
The last thing you want to do is put money in the hands of government (in a recession).
That was in response to Doyle’s and the Wisconsin Counties Association’s request for all of Wisconsin’s 72 counties to belly up with their own wish lists. Of course, the County Board (the ones who gave us that pension fuckup) will likely send their own “wish list”, and thanks to the stupidity of the voters, the spend-and-tax-and-spend-some-more faction does have nearly a veto-proof majority.
Al-Qaeda’s second-in-command has called on Muslims to strike Western and Israeli targets around the world in response to Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip. Ayman al-Zawahiri made the announcement in an audio tape posted on Islamist websites.
“This is Obama whom the American machine of lies tried to portray as the rescuer who will change the policy of America,” al-Zawahiri said, according to SITE. “He kills your brothers and sisters in Gaza mercilessly and without affection.”
Even Al-Qaeda recognizes that Obama’s words have expiration dates!
Providing the first insight about his views on fiscal responsibility, Barack Obama today told reporters that:
the nation could face “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come.”
How can that be? I mean, I knew that this year was a complete write off but “for years to come?”
The last budget forecast from the Congressional Budget Office showed that we were going to run about a $455 B deficit for FY ’08. Of course this was before the CBO understood how quickly revenues were decreasing. It was also before the CBO, or the rest of us, knew that Hank and company were going to get their hands on $700 B to spend helping their friends.
After taking into account the most recent realities, the CBO will provide new projections with an expectation that it will now be $1T. The $1T is before any of of the latest, proposed stimulus package but would include at least the initial tranche of Hank’s play money.
OK, so let’s walk this back…
The difference between the new $1T deficit and the old $455 B deficit is $555B. It’s probably safe to say that the first part of of Hanks play money, say $350B, is included in the new deficit. That leaves revenue reductions of about $200B.
If we attempted to “normalize” the new deficit to Barack’s world, we would take the $1T, back out Hank’s “one time” spending spree of $350B and back down the $300B per year of spending in Iraq that we’re doing because we should have all troops back stateside or in the cost free combat zone of Afghanistan, by the end of January. That would suggest that even if the economy never improved and we just rolled forward, Barack’s normalized annual deficit should be about $350B. Of course if the economy does come back some we could expect that other $200B and perhaps even some of the original $455B deficit to come back bringing us closer and closer to a balanced budget.
So where’s the other $650B + each year coming from to make the ongoing deficit become $1T?
It’s not taxes. Remember that Barack kept telling us throughout the campaign that while he was going to be decreasing taxes on the “middle class”, he was going to increase them on the “rich.” We’re were told that the net result would be that 95% of the people would get a “tax break” but that overall taxes would stay the same.
I guess that means that if revenue – expenses = deficit and revenue is the same or improving, the only way to increase a deficit is to increase expenses and if the $650B number is accurate, by a dramatic amount as our current federal budget is only about $3.2 T!
But wait, wasn’t Barack the candidate who told us:
Q: This year’s deficit will reach $455 billion. Won’t some programs you are proposing have to be eliminated?
OBAMA: Every dollar I’ve proposed, I’ve proposed an additional cut that it matches. To give an example, we spend $15 billion a year on subsidies to insurance companies. It doesn’t help seniors get better. It’s a giveaway. I want to go through the federal budget line by line, programs that don’t work, we cut. Programs we need, we should make them work better.
I can’t say that I really liked the tax and spend liberals much but at least they understood economics enough to know that you couldn’t borrow yourself to prosperity. The new Democrats having been educated with the new math, no longer carry any pretense of balancing a budget, they go straight to “Spend!”
It looks like President elect Obama will carry one characteristic from his campaign to his Presidency, promises with expiration dates.
This was started by Jessi Olson back when gas was over $4/gallon. Despite the fact that gas is currently under $2/gallon, I’ll continue to do this on a more-or-less regular basis until the underlying message sinks into the collective cement blocks that pass for heads amongst the members of the bipartisan Party-In-Government.
My price for gas – $1.899/gallon outside the bunker
Today, I will focus on a different aspect of oil – heating oil. As I type, heating oil is rocketing off the floor of about $1.20/gallon established last month, up to a current level of $1.64/gallon. Yes, that is below where it was this time last year (somewhere around $2.60/gallon), and well below the mid-summer spike of about $4.15/gallon, but that drop was a result of the temporary opening of places like the outer continental shelf to oil exploration. The Democrats are already sharpening their knives to slay that opening, and the current surge in oil and gas prices is proof we are still at the ragged-high edge of the demand/supply-price curve.
Worse, Ed Morrissey passes along a report that friend-to-the-Left Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will no longer be sending his suitable-only-for-heavy-oils-like-heating-oil crude over here for “free”. The cynical side of me says that won’t return because he got what he wanted out of that “investment”; kindred spirits in charge of everything. Even if I weren’t cynical, the fact remains that CITGO isn’t in the charity business anymore at a time when costs are going up.
Do you really want to be dependent on the whims of a tyrant who can’t even keep his own country powered? If not, then I have three words for you – “Drill baby, drill!”
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