No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

November 8, 2010

The BEST column of the year!

by @ 21:14. Filed under Uncategorized.

I am not exaggerating. If anyone should disagree, please show me a better one.

Mike Banzet is not a quitter, though he says he quit.  After 22 years of active duty, Banzet retired this year as a

major in the U.S. Air Force. The reason? Major Banzet was extremely displeased with the political leadership in America, i.e., the Democrats. Remember, this is a political party whose leadership despises the military.

Two days before the November mid-term elections, Major Banzet wrote a pointed letter to America’s electorate that appeared in the Daily Inter Lake. Here are excerpts:

“You’ve elected officials who, for partisan points, spoke openly that the ‘…war is lost.’ I happened to be in a dining facility in Baghdad that day, filled with the (mostly) young faces of (mostly) Army men and women. CNN was on the TVs, and things got very quiet when this elected official continued on, railing that the mission that some of these very people were here to do, had ‘…failed.’ Yet, they would be donning their body armor, strapping on med kits and weapons, mounting HMMVs or MRAPs and heading outside the wire, ensuring that the newborn democracy in Iraq, purchased with so many lives, would be safe another night. The newly re-invigorated insurgents would be waiting, teeth bared back in a hateful smile, gripping the IED detonator, the RPG launcher, or the AK-47s to ply their trade with new energy, because the Senate Majority Leader had said they were winning.

You elected officials who continually defame and berate military members, whether it is the observation that if you’re not too bright, you’ll get ‘…stuck in Iraq.’

You’ve elected officials in the role of commander-in-chief who ‘loathe’ the military, while using ROTC deferments and special treatment to avoid military service that the less ‘connected’ take as a responsibility.

On the basis of ‘change,’ you elected someone who had close, ongoing associations with people who were part of an organization that tried to kill us [U.S. military] on our own soil.

You elected officials that promised to take property from some Americans, and give it to you, merely because they had more than you did.

You elect officials who openly embrace illegal activity; but they don’t have to live with the consequences.

You support an administration that leads a party that gives a standing ovation to the leader of a country that exploits our kindness and actively encourages law-breaking in our country while insulting our fellow citizens who dare to try to enforce the law.

You elect officials who are openly racist, decrying that ‘White folks’ greed drives a world in need…’ and that their own grandmother was a ‘…typical white person.’ Someone who sits in admiration as their pastor (small p; no capital letters for racists), in a church he attended for 20 years, slanders the United States  as the ‘…U.S. of KKK America’ and delights that the 9/11 ‘…chickens have come home to roost.’

You support the tactic of using the epithet of ‘racist’ as the cudgel of choice for racists who don’t like policies that conservatives advocate.

Don’t like illegal activity? Racist.

Your party insists that to provide a photo ID — proving you are who you say you are — is not only too much of a burden to ask a voter to bear, but it’s racist as well.

Don’t like a particular female’s policies? Sexist.

Yet, you support politicians who prey on 20-year old interns, seduce underage male interns, and, as a double bonus, support a person for the Supreme Court who says she is ‘wiser’ than white people because of her race and sex.”

Outstanding stuff, a must-read.

Please visit my blog at FranklinNOW.com.

Recommended Reading (11/07/10)

by @ 21:07. Filed under Uncategorized.

Here are, in my view, interesting, noteworthy columns and articles from the past week that I highly recommend (You will note that on occasion, I do not endorse the opinions of the author and may point that out. Despite my disagreements, I still feel the piece is worth a read).

Take your olive branch and shove it, Democrats!

“Here is an ironclad certainty: It’s too little too late for the antagonist-in-chief to paper over two years of relentless Democratic incivility and hate toward his domestic ‘enemies.’ Voters have spoken: They’ve had enough. Enough of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize winner’s rhetorical abuse. Enough of his feints at bipartisanship. Whatever the final tally, this week’s turnover in Congress is a GOP mandate for legislative pugilism, not peace. Voters have had enough of big government meddlers ‘getting things done.’ They are sending fresh blood to the nation’s Capitol to get things undone.”

Solutions for America

“The voters decided to send to Congress men and women pledged to act upon the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values and a strong national defense. Heritage has compiled this checklist of five overriding actions, representing the bare minimum required for Washington to fulfill its electoral mandate….”

Top 10 Democrats we’re happy to see defeated

“Here are the Top 10 of these big-spending Democrats that we were happy to see take a beating from the American voters on Election Day.”

What’s so great about America

“Marco Rubio will have to write a new speech sooner or later, but he shouldn’t hurry up on our account. We still enjoy the one he’s been giving all year. He delivered it again to a national television audience on Election Night, after walloping not one but two formidable opponents in his campaign for a vacant Florida Senate seat. Along with his gift for wooing voters, the speech has made Rubio, according to a chorus of news accounts, a ‘rising star’—even, said one Vanity Fair writer who should know, a ‘matinee idol.’ Republicans might want to ponder why.The theme of the speech, and the source of its power, is……”

The next two years

A congressional majority will mostly be limited to playing defense, to checking any further ill-considered legislative efforts to expand the size and scope of government, as well as presenting to the American people a strong and coherent alternative to the big government liberalism of the Democrats.”

Why Palin petrifies progressives
 
“According to the Progressives, women cannot be ‘real women’ if they don’t fit the Progressives’ script. Yep, if a woman doesn’t march to the Left’s horse dung definition regarding what ‘they’ (whoever the heck ‘they’ are) have determined constitutes a real woman, she is illegitimate.  

For instance, for the shemales at NOW and their misandrist ilk, a woman is not a woman, in their estimation:

– If she’s not cool with killing unborn babies

– If she’s not into hating men who act like masculine men

– If she’s not into being a mannish lesbian

– If she’s not into blaming every global ill on Old Glory

– And if she’s not into worshipping big government

Yep, ladies, you’re not a ‘real woman’ if you do not agree with their garish political description of what it ‘really means’ to own a uterus.”

Politico’s Michael Kinsley goes full unhinged

“Mikey is looking for a little attention, just wanting to make a splash. Perhaps he really believes this filth of an opinion piece. Regardless, this has to be one of the most disgusting things I have read from a major news outlet in quite some time, even with Eugene Robinson still being employed by the Washington Post and the loonies at the NY Times: U.S. is not greatest country ever…” 

Tracking your federal tax dollars

“Where do your federal tax dollars go?

“Many people don’t know. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that 40% thought foreign aid was one of the two largest federal-budget expenses. In reality, Uncle Sam spends $14 on Medicare—itself the second-largest expense—for every dollar spent on foreign aid.”

Lobbyist HO Train derailed

by @ 15:56. Filed under Choo-choos, Politics - Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin State Journal carried an Associated Press dispatch saying that, a week after committing Wisconsin to spend all $810 million of Porkulus money to create a train to make lobbyists think they’re living in southern Maryla…er, link Milwaukee and Madison by car-speed passenger rail, Jim Doyle has cried, “UNCLE!”

From the relevant part of the press release/rant (courtesy Vicki McKenna on her Facebook page, who broke out the U-word):

While I could force the issue, I believe that this project will only be successful in the long run if the State of Wisconsin and the U.S. Department of Transportation are strong partners. For that reason, I have put the project on pause, so that the U.S. DOT and the Governor-elect can confer about the future of the high speed rail project. If Governor-elect Walker opposes the project, U.S. DOT has made it clear that the money will go to one of the many other states that intend to move forward with high speed passenger rail.

Ding-dong, car-speed rail’s dead.

November 6, 2010

Don’t forget to set your clocks back

by @ 19:55. Filed under Miscellaneous.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because Steve is enjoying the extra hour tonight. This is not a test, though you can either pass or fail this situation.

For those of you in the US (and not in those parts that don’t observe Daylight Saving), Daylight Saving Time ends at 2 am local time tomorrow, 11/7/2010. If you have a WordPress blog (whether it is on WordPress.com, a WordPress stand-alone, or WordPress MU – this includes Blogivists and Conservablogs), and you had the time changed for Daylight Savings, you need to change it back to Standard Time (Central UTC -6, Mountain UTC -7, Eastern UTC -5, Pacific UTC -8, and check your clock for other locales). To do so, go into your wp-admin panel, select “Settings”, and under the “General Settings” page that pops up, select the right time zone. Don’t forget to hit “save” when you’re done.

Again, this is not a test. Had this been a test, you wouldn’t have been given official news, instructions or information. This concludes this broadcast of the Emergency Blogging System.

November 4, 2010

Was Chad Lee a “bad” candidate?

by @ 19:29. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Todd Stevens over at UW-Madison’s The Daily Cardinal seems to think so. As “proof”, he cites John Sharpless’ close loss to Tammy Baldwin in the 2000 2nd Congressional District race.

Allow me to retort. While we will have to wait until mid-December for the Government Accounability Board to release the certified ward-by-ward results, CNN has the county-by-county numbers for both the governor’s race and the 2nd Congressional race. There are three counties entirely in the 2nd (Dane, Green and Columbia), and three other counties with significant portions in the 2nd (Jefferson, with almost 58% of the populace in the 2nd, Sauk, with a bit short of 52% in, and Rock, with virtually everything except the city of Janesville in, or just over 46% of the populace). In addition, the 2nd has the bulk of the part of Whitewater that is in Walworth County. Let’s take a look at the percentages of the vote Baldwin received versus the percentages losing Democrat gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett received in each of the counties that make up virtually all of the 2nd:

Dane: Baldwin 66.5%, Barrett 68.7%
Green: Baldwin 51.1%, Barrett 50.7%
Columbia: Baldwin 47.0%, Barrett 47.5%
The three whole counties combined: Baldwin 64.1%, Barrett 66.0%
Rock (entire county for Barrett, everything except Janesville for Baldwin): Baldwin 53.2%, Barrett 53.5%
Jefferson (entire county for Barrett, the western portion for Baldwin): Baldwin 47.7%, Barrett 38.3%
Sauk (entire county for Barrett, the eastern portion for Baldwin): Baldwin 51.6%, Barrett 49.3%
All 6 counties: Baldwin 61.8%, Barrett 60.8%

Would Todd call Scott Walker, who won statewide by almost 6 percentage points, a “bad” candidate because he got a lower percentage of the vote in the three counties entirely in the 2nd Congressional District than Chad Lee? Really?

Half-Fast Lobbyist HO Train derailed?

by @ 16:47. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin, Transportation.

(H/T – J. Rawson Schaller)

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that, a few short days after Jim Doyle committed Wisconsin to spend all $810 million of Porkulus money earmarked for the Half-Fast Lobbyist HO Train between Milwaukee and Madison, the Department of Transportation sent out a notice to all contractors and consultants working on the rail line to stop working on it. While the contractors and consultants were not given any timeline on how long their work would be “on hold” (though if it is until January 3, it will be permanent), DOT Secretary Frank Busalacchi said that would be “for a few days” until the election results (which saw Scott Walker become governor-elect with historically-high Republican majorities in the Legislature, and commuter-rail-tax questions answered resoundingly in the negative every place it was on the ballot) are balanced against job losses when the work is stopped for good.

Speaking of that, DAAR Engineering, which has a $2.8 million construction management contract, said that they would be forced to lay off two (no, not two dozen, not two hundred, not two thousand) employees if work was permanently stopped. Let’s see – $2.8 million divided by at most 5 years of construction (yes, I’m being generous here), divided by 2 employees comes to $280,000 per job per year.

November 3, 2010

The Morning After – Wisconsin Edition

by @ 9:38. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Shoebox already handled the national look (well, except for the gratiutous cheap helmet-to-helmet shot on Packer fans; after all, we know Viking fans are the kings of Monday Morning Quarterbacking), so I’ll handle the Wisconsin look (mental note; figure out which one of us will handle the almost-equally-shocking Minnesota outcomes).

Governor’s race – In the end, we saw what happens when a Milwaukee Democrat who didn’t really want to run meets a surburban and outstate Wisconsin seriously soured on both Democrats and unserious candidates. Tom Barrett lost by 5.70 points despite carrying Milwaukee and Dane Counties by margins that, in a normal year, would have assured a win.

U.S. Senate race – I honestly don’t see how Russ Feingold could be bragging about running for “something” in 2012 after he barely did better than the aforementioned reluctant Milwaukee-area candidate, losing to Ron Johnson by 4.82 points. In previous elections, Feingold had significantly-better margins than the Democrat on the top of the ticket (2 points better than Bill Clinton for President in 1992, 23 points better than Ed Garvey for governor in 1998, 11 points better than John Kerry for President in 2004).

I guess running as a liberal Democrat and shedding one’s “nice guy” image isn’t exactly a winning strategy. Bonus item; it also appears that one of those campaign promises that was on Feingold’s garage back in 1992 will prove to be broken by a large margin for the entire cycle – starting about mid-year, out-of-state money made up the vast majority of Feingold’s warchest.

U.S. House races – If you told me one year ago that the 7th Congressional District, which was represented by Dave Obey for longer than I’ve been alive and that, on average, votes for Democrats by double-digit margins, would elect a Republican to that seat, even if it were open, by almost 7 1/2 points, I would have declared you insane. However, that is exactly what Sean Duffy did to Julie Lassa.

Over in the 8th Congressional District, history caught up with Steve Kagen. No Democrat had held that seat for three consecutive terms, and Reid Ribble did not disappoint with a double-digit win.

Ron Kind barely hung onto his 3rd Congressional seat. For much of the night, Dan Kapanke held a slim lead, but then the university vote came in.

State Senate – How bad a night was it for Senate Democrats? They lost their leader (Russ Decker), who was told to defend his Senate seat rather than chase his decades-long dream of being called 7th-District Congressman, a second potential successor to Obey who likewise was ordered to hang onto his Senate seat (Pat Kreitlow), the Road-Builders candidate who was allowed to just keep pressing the “oppose” button when it came time to vote on the FY2010-FY2011 budget and its components without offering any ideas of his own (Jim Sullivan), and WEAC’s candidate who, unlike Sullivan, was proud to raise taxes, spending, and structural deficits this past time around (John Lehman).

Unfortunately, I will be saddled with Chris “Sticky Fingers” Larson as my state senator (at least until redistricting), as the East Side/UWM part of the gerrymandered district won out.

State Assembly – Unlike Nancy Pelosi, who will be guaranteed to lose her U.S. House speaker’s gavel come January, Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan will also be losing his office in the Capitol. A heap of his fellow Democrats will be joining him in moving out, as there are fewer Democrats in the Assembly (38) than I ever remember coming out of an election.

Bonus item – Bob Ziegelbauer, who easily survived the Manitowoc version of Dem Party Purification, complete with an AFSCME Republicrat to try and squeeze him from both sides, will reportedly be caucusing with the Republicans.

Attorney General – No, it wasn’t a fluke that J.B. Van Hollen was the only major statewide/Congressional Repubican candidate in the entire country to pick up a Democrat-held seat in 2006.

Minor constitutional offices – What the tide swept into the state treasurer’s office in 2006, the tide swept right back out in 2010. Meanwhile, the last of the La Folettes managed to hang onto the most-worthless constitutional office in Wisconsin (secretary of state) over the third Wisconsinite of African descent to attempt to win a statewide election (all unsuccessfully).

Train transit – Just days after Jim Doyle added another $810 million to the state’s structural deficit by committing the state to spend all $810 million of the federal money for the Milwaukee-to-Madison Lobbyist HO(-scale) Half-Fast Train, voters in Racine County, various Kenosha County locales, and various Dane County locales rejected the idea of a tax hike for commuter rail. Those in southeast Wisconsin rejected it by over 5-1 margins.

The Morning After

by @ 7:30. Filed under Politics - National.

I wasn’t able to stay up for all of the fun last night. East coast living isn’t very conducive to following west coast politics.

Going into the elections I was touting 60+ House seats and a Senate that would be 51/49 but unsure of which party would have 51. It looks like my House prediction will hold but my Senate prediction will fall 1 or 2 seats short. All in all, not a bad night.

While the euphoria of the night is still hanging on me I think it’s worth jotting down a few thoughts about what we learned last night.

  • I don’t have the hard data but it struck me that there were numerous House Democrats turned out last night who voted against health care before they voted for it.  I don’t think there is any doubt that part of the election results was a repudiation of the Obamacare bill and the egotistical hubris that Congress showed in ignoring their constituents and passing it despite overwhelming public opposition
  • Good, conservative candidates can win – OK, admittedly Rubio was easy (not that he had it easy) because he was a nearly perfect candidate who ran a nearly perfect campaign.  However, Rand Paul certainly wasn’t that.  Paul had the family name to get beyond and also his own fumbles i.e. saying he would eliminate farm subsidies for large corporations and then naming large, small farmer owned cooperatives as examples.  I don’t think this is a one time event.  I hope the Republican establishment had their eyes opened a bit and cast their net further than the “good ol’ boys club” they fish from for candidates.
  • On the flip side, we’ve also learned that flawed candidates are flawed candidates.  If there was ever a Senator more despised by his constituents, I can’t think of it.  Harry Reid was ripe for being picked off.  Harry Reid should have been picked off.  Except for the flawed candidate in Sharron Angle, Harry Reid might have picked off.  Am I arguing that Angle shouldn’t have run?  No, that’s Monday morning quarterbacking and I’ll leave that to you Packers folks who can’t get past the whole Favre thing :).  No, what I’m suggesting is that with the results of this election, the Tea Party has established some legitimate, political credibility.  Like all newbies, the Tea Party needs to learn from their actions and improve.  With their success, they should have a much better time of attracting better, stronger, conservative candidates.  The Tea Party needs to improve on their candidate selection and they will. O’Donnell was also a flawed candidate.
  • While there is a growing portion of the nation that is understanding the Country’s economic reality, there is still a large portion that doesn’t.  Long time Dems were turned out in House seat after House seat.  Names like Skelton and Oberstar, fixtures in the House, will not have thier cushy jobs come January.  On the other hand, California, what the hell?  California reelects a failed Governor and a failed leftist Senator. I think it’s time for the big quake that separates California from the rest of us. California and its government unions, will be a drain on the rest of the country for decades to come.
  • Incumbency is a powerful force and like gravity, requires an amazing amount of energy to overcome.  We’ve already talked aobut Harry Reid winning so I won’t rehash that one.  However, it looks like Alaska will retain their back stabbing Senator as well.  It’s harder to call what happened in AK.  I suspect that once all is reviewed, there is a combination of some flaws in Miller and some incumbency benefit.  I also think (I can’t prove a bit of this) that the vote had at least a tinge of anti Palin response.  I say this because Palin always was an outsider in the R’s of Alaska and she drove that stake home with her support of Miller.  There is a big rift in the R party in Alaska and I think the establishment won out this time.

Well, it’s the morning after and I’m sure there are Democrats who feel like their world has just been turned upside down.  For those folks and others, I leave you with this:

November 2, 2010

Election Night 2010 liveblog

I will eventually be at Ron Johnson’s Election Night party in Oshkosh, but the races will start closing well before 8 pm. With that in mind, we at No Runny Eggs, or at least those of us who are not at Drinking Right, will be kicking off election night live coverage at about 6 pm Central.

Depending on who is here when, comments may take a while to show up. Because this will be picked up by FreedomWorks, please keep it clean.

Election Day Hot Read – R.S. McCain’s “Final Warning: Polls Are Not Elections”

by @ 9:16. Filed under Politics - National.

The Winning McCain unleashes an invective or two to remind us that we need to run through the tape at the close of polling places today (that’s right, there’s a language warning on a McCain post, and it’s not from Meggie Mac):

Polls don’t win elections, and regression analysis sure as hell doesn’t win elections. Politics is not a science, and trying to reduce elections to trends, polls and mathematical formulae is one of those situations where when the only tool you’ve got is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

If you’re a thousand miles away from a district and don’t actually know anything about what the candidates and their campaigns are doing, it is tempting to look at poll numbers, examine past voting trends, and start making assumptions about what the result will be. But when we yield to that temptation, we ignore the Hayekian insight: Information is diffused throughout society in such a way that no one — not even the best-informed “expert” — can know everything.

So Jay Cost doesn’t know everything, Charlie Cook doesn’t know everything and Michael Barone doesn’t know everything, either. Yet their status as political experts requires them to make predictions and we mere mortals . . . well, we don’t know nothing about winning no elections.

In short – until and unless you, and those you know, vote, the Democrats are still in charge.

The MacIver Institute presents an Election Day Live Blog

The MacIver Institute has launched an Election Day live-blog, with reports from both the MacIver News Serivce and various bloggers. From the announcement:

Contrbutors can merely read the various posts or submit their own original content.The MacIver Institute’s History as it Happens Election Day Live Blog will record information, anecdotes and analysis on:

  • The most hotly contested local races
  • Voting experiences at polling places across Wisconsin
  • Turn out levels throughout the day
  • Final GOTV activities by candidates
  • Local referenda across the state
  • Any incidents of voting irregularities

The forum will be moderated by the team at MacIver. Promotion of individual candidates or political parties, promotion of any organization or cause, innuendo, rumor and name calling will be prohibited.

Since I’m one of those who was invited, I’ll simulcast the event here.

November 1, 2010

The Bob Etheridge Memorial Constituent Relations Award goes to…

(H/T – Jon Henke)

Congressman Ron Kind (D-La Crosse), who attempted to grab the video camera of a blogger for La Crosse WatchDog who dared confront him on PlaceboCare.

[youtube width=”560″ height=”340″]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WjCU6yNs9o[/youtube]

If the voters in the 3rd Congressional District needed another reason to retire Kind, he just delivered.

Egg’s ballot – Fall 2010 edition

With the election tomorrow (7 am-8 pm in Wisconsin, check with your local election officials for times and poll locations), it’s as good a time as any to tell you who I’ll be voting for and who I would be voting for if I were in various districts other than my own:

Races I will be voting on

  • Wisconsin governor/lieutenant governor – Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch – In case you missed that little graphic on your right (or you’re viewing this place on a mobile phone), I’ve been an early backer of Scott Walker. Do I really need to repeat what I said in September?
  • US Senator from Wisconsin – Ron Johnson – Going back to the September ballot explanation, I said that I trust someone whose “gut” was in the right place. Johnson has learned how effectively voice his “gut conservatism”, and how to avoid the types of mistakes that other first-timers have made.
  • 1st Congressional DistrictPaul Ryan – There is a runaway fiscal train coming down the tracks, and despite what certain “libertarians” think, Ryan is one of the few willing to work on rerouting the train away from the derailing curve at the bottom of the hill.
  • Attorney General – J.B. Van Hollen – There is a reason Van Hollen was the only Republican to win a major statewide/Congressional office held by a Democrat in 2006; he is a law-and-order type who runs a lean department.
  • State treasurer – Kurt SchullerSchuller sold me on his candidacy in an interview he did shortly after the primary. I’m still not entirely convinced that the state treasurer’s office should go away entirely, but until/unless it does, he will fill the job in a fiscally- and constitutionally-responsible manner.
  • Secretary of state – David King – I’ll go back to an interview he did back at the RPW convention.
  • Milwaukee County Sheriff – David Clarke – Simple; he has professionalized the Sheriff’s office while streamlining the costs.
  • 7th Senate District – Jess Ripp – The Milwaukee Democrats made a big mistake in removing Jeff Plale in the primary in favor of someone who, if elected, would be the most-liberal Senator in the next session of the Legislature. Ripp, and my fellow voters, are just the people to explain to them just how big.
  • 21st Assembly District – Mark Honadel – Honadel took a district that had been a Democrat stronghold for 80 years during southeast Wisconsin’s precursor to the TEA Party. Now that he’s about to finally be in a government-limiting majority, it’s time to make sure he’s there to make it happen.
  • Races I wish I could be voting on

  • 5th Senate District – Leah Vukmir – She is, simply, one of the brightest people who ever went into the Capitol to serve, and the Capitol hasn’t corrupted her.
  • 21st Senate District – Van Wanggaard
  • 31st Senate District – Ed Thompson
  • 6 of the other 7 Congressional races – Chad Lee (2nd), Dan Kapanke (3rd), Dan Sebring (4th), Jim Sensenbrenner (5th), Sean Duffy (7th) and Reid Ribble (8th) – It’s about the spending. Sensenbrenner is a proven spendthrift, and the other 5 are running as the same. A couple of them won’t win just because the districts (2nd and 4th) are just that rigged for Democrats, but this time last year, everybody thought Dave Obey was safe in the 7th. In case you were wondering where Tom Petri is, see the open.
  • 25th Assembly District – Bob Ziegelbauer – Sink the other part of the Democrat Party Purification to bear at least some fruit this cycle. The Democrats and AFSCME went so far as to insert a faux “Republican” into the race (finally succeeding after some nomination signatures were found well after the deadline and after the Government “Accountability” Board threw out enough signatures to deny the stalking horse a ballot spot); don’t let them oust the last moderate Dem to see where the party is headed.
  • Racine County advisory referendum on new taxes for KRM – No – KRM should be dead and buried in the new year, but it’s best to drive this stake through it.

Guest post from Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) – Support Sean Duffy in Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District

Note – Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is the Deputy House GOP Whip and recruitment director of the NRCC, and he’s been covering various candidates on RedState the past few weeks.

Tomorrow is Election Day, and I’m excited for the Republican House candidates who have worked so hard over the last several months. Momentum is on our side, and tomorrow, Americans can make a bold statement to change our country’s direction.

One who I am excited about is Young Gun candidate Sean Duffy, who is running in Wisconsin’s Seventh Congressional District. If Sean looks familiar, it’s because he was on MTV’s Real World. But in the actual real world, Sean is a former prosecutor who stepped forward to run for Congress when he saw the Democrats’ failed policies hurting the country.

Sean Duffy
Just like he chops logs as a competitive lumberjack, Sean wants to chop down the federal budget deficit. He would do that by freezing non-discretionary federal spending to 2008 levels and canceling unspent stimulus money.

Sean is also on a mission to get the economy going to create jobs. Instead of the Democrats’ tired idea of more stimulus spending, Sean believes in releasing the energy of small businesses. That means stopping the Democrats’ tax increases coming on January 1, 2011, abandoning a cap-and-trade energy tax, and reducing regulations on small businesses.

Some of those new regulations are found in the Democrats’ government takeover of health care. Sean rejects that Big Government approach and will work for real solutions like letting consumers buy insurance across state lines and lawsuit abuse reform.

Check out Sean’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Thanks,

Rep. Kevin McCarthy

Eggs on the road and on the air – Election Day edition

Revisions/extensions (1:55 pm 11/1/2010) – I wasn’t anticipating on going on TEMS today, but I will be on at 3 pm.

There’s a few places I will be tomorrow (and today):

Soon-to-be-Elected Candidate Hot Read – Erick Erickson’s “An Open Letter to the Freshman Republican Victors”

RedStae head Erick Erickson has a reminder for the soon-to-be-freshmen Congresscritters and Senators that, while focused on them, is also a very good read for those about to be sent to Madison, St. Paul and Frankfort:

When you get to Washington you will be told you need a professional staff of lobbyists, careerists, etc. to help guide you. You will be told that “you just don’t understand” or “you are naive” or “the School House Rock version of how a bill becomes a law is too simplified for the real world.”

The people telling you this are the people the voters hate and you should not trust. Largely they will be people in leadership, particularly staffers, who will soon depart for K Street where they hope to profit off their relationship with you. They will work with people like Trent Lott to try to co-opt you.

Fight.

Fight them.

Fight the idea that you must yield to their ways instead of them yielding to your ways. You, after all, have not been driven from power like these men have….

If you fight them you will be rewarded. If you succumb, the tea party will come for you in just a few short years.

October 31, 2010

Rejection? How About Repudiation?

by @ 20:03. Filed under Politics - National.

Arianna Huffington says the upcoming election results does not mean America is rejecting Democrats.

You mean like Obama’s election wasn’t a mandate?

Reading Smoke Signals

by @ 19:30. Filed under Politics - National.

I shared with you a week ago that Barbara Ma’am Boxer’s success was likely tied to the success of Proposition 19, the pot legalization referendum. In what will likely be the last poll on the Proposition, The Field Poll shows mixed results for California.

Indeed, Proposition 19 now looks like it will go down in defeat. At least via a referendum, there will be no pot legalization in California. I’m sure that will be a relief to President Obama who could have been caught between popular support for weed and his ego crying “I’m the law here!” Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Proposition 19 is going to go down by a wide enough margin to benefit America as a whole.

The most recent polling on the Boxer/Fiorina race was done by Rasmussen. The poll showed Boxer with a 3 point lead but still within the margin of error. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows little change from a poll by Rasmussen a week prior and from SurveyUSA about 10 days ago. Both of these earlier polls also had Boxer in low, single digit leads.

In looking at the partisan splits, I see the same questions and issues regarding the California polls that have been raised elsewhere; will the turn outs look like previous elections or will it look like something different?

in 2008, the California partisan split was 30% Republican, 42% Democrat and 28% Independent. The Field Poll split supposed a turnout of R, D, I as 39%, 44% and 17% respectively. Finally, the SurveyUSA poll show the split as 34%, 42% 21%.

Given the “historical” nature of the 2008 election (I kid you not, I heard an African American describe the reason for his Obama vote that way on Hannity the other night), it would seem like a larger Dem turnout this year would be unlikely. Of course, the pot proponents will argue that the turnout is due to the referendum. However, I find it hard to believe that the pot referendum would pull a greater percentage of Dems than the Gay Marriage referendum combined with “historical” voting opportunities.

If I had to guess, and this is only a gut, I believe that both Field Poll and Survey USA have Dems over represented in their polls, that’s the good news. The bad news is that even if I adjust the Dems back to the party split of 41% of the 2006 race, the Senate race does not tip toward Fiorina.

It looks to me like the only way for Fiorina to win is if the Republicans and Independents out GOTV the Dems. How will we know? The Dems, and especially the young Dems, are strongly tied to support of the Pot Proposition. If you see reports on election night that Proposition 19 is going down by at least 10% it means the potheads haven’t turned out or that those opposed to the referendum have overwhelmed those who support the referendum. In either event, 10% will be the smoke signal to indicate whether Ma’am Boxer will return for another session or whether California will join the rest of the Union and send President Obama a rebuke “from sea to shining sea!”

October 29, 2010

Interview with 7th Senate District Republican candidate Jess Ripp

by @ 16:53. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Earlier today, I sat down with Jess Ripp, the Republican nominee for the 7th Senate District seat. The seat is currently held by Democrat Jeff Plale, but he will be leaving after being defeated by fellow Democrat Chris Larson in a brutal primary.

We discussed why he got into politics, various issues including transportation, taxation, the major role the Milwaukee area has in the state’s economy, and a couple of surprise endorsements from the mayors of Oak Creek and South Milwaukee.

Click here to listen (and forgive the low quality; Starbucks is not exactly conducive to good sound quality).

I know it is a longshot because the district contains both the most-liberal part of Milwaukee (the East Side and the UWM campus) and traditionally-Democrat union cities such as Cudahy, St. Francis and South Milwaukee. However, I remember that the 2002 taxpayer revolt against the corruptocrats in Milwaukee County that put Scott Walker in as County Executive began in Cudahy, and there can’t be a larger divide between two candidates than there is between Ripp and Larson.

Related: Rick Sense of The Inside Scoop also interviewed Ripp today.

Poll-a-copia – Last call for PPP

I really should have waited one more day to do a poll-a-copia because Public Policy Polling released their last pre-election poll taken of 1,372 likely voters between 10/26 and 10/28 this morning. On the other hand, there’s a few results in the identical 53%-44% leads Scott Walker and Ron Johnson enjoy over Tom Barrett and Russ Feingold (respectively) that bear longer looks than I could afford in a month-long “wrap-up” post.

The first item of note is the partisan split. PPP’s split in this poll was 37% independent, 34% Republican and 30% Democrat. I do have to note that Wisconsin does not have state-monitored party registration, and differeing polling firms have different screens for who is a Republican versus who is a Democrat. It is remarkable how even the topline likely-voter results are between the 4 different non-St. Norbert pollsters that took polls this month even as they had significantly different partisan splits.

PPP noted that there is a rather significant “enthusiasm gap” in Wisconsin, at least as it is measured by those who admitted to voting for Barack Obama in 2008 versus who actually voted for him in 2008. Obama carried Wisconsin by a 56.2%-42.3% margin over John McCain, but among the likely voters this year, only 49% admitted to voting for Obama while 46% said they voted for McCain.

PPP further noted that Obama’s job approval really slipped. Among all the likely voters, it was down to 37% approve/54% disapprove. That compares rather darkly to Rasmussen’s essentially-contemporaneous 48% approve/51% disapprove/-16 Approval Index (strong approve less strong diapprove, with no equivalent in PPP’s polling) statewide, and a national rolling average of 44% approve/55% disapprove/-20 Approval Index taken the same 3 days as PPP’s poll. Worse for Obama, his approval rating among those who admitted to voting for him was only 70% approve/18% disapprove. Perhaps that is why Obama has decided not to head to Wisconsin one more time (H/T-Ed Morrissey).

Meanwhile, both soon-to-be-ex-governor Jim Doyle’s and Russ Feingold’s job approval ratings were in negative territory, and worse than Rasmussen’s equivalent numbers (Rasmussen used favorability for Feingold rather than job approval). There also is a troubling trend for Herb Kohl in the PPP poll – his job approval index was barely above water at 41% approve/40% disapprove.

October 28, 2010

Poll-a-copia – Closing on the end

I’m sorry that it’s been a while since I did one of these. Outside the outliers of the St. Norbert’s Senate poll and various Democrat-sponsored internal polls, not much had really changed in the aggregate since the end of September until now. To make up for that lack of attention, I’ll expand the look to cover the two Congressional races in the northern part of the state, the 7th and 8th Congressional Districts.

Before I really begin, I may as well explain why I’m completely discounting the St. Norbert’s polls, even though their gubernatorial poll appeared to confirm what everybody else has. They have a long, bipartisan history of being outliers, likely due to the extended length of time covered by the polls and the fact that it’s conducted by college students just learning how to do polling.

Senate/Gubernatorial polls

First up for review in both the gubernatorial and Senate races is the Reuters/Ipsos poll (crosstabs courtesy RealCleaPolitics), taken between 10/8 and 10/11 among 600 registered and 451 likely voters. On the likely-voter end, Republican nominee Ron Johnson had a 51%-44% lead on Democrat incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race, and Republican nominee Scott Walker had a 52%-42% lead on Democrat nominee Tom Barrett in the gubernatorial race. On the registered-voter end, Johnson’s lead almost completely evaporated to 46%-45%, while Walker’s lead shrunk by less to a 48%-41% lead. Of note in this poll is the partisan split; while the registered voter partisan split was 46% Democrat-38% Republican, the likely voter partisan split was 45% Republican-42% Democrat.

Ipsos did not break down the likely-voter numbers by party. Among the 9% of registered voters who identified themselves as independents in this poll, Johnson had a 38%-30% lead, with a significant part of Feingold’s support coming from those who were merely “leaning” toward him (the “firm-committment” numbers were 37%-25% in favor of Johnson). Meanwhile, Walker had a 41%-15% lead among the independents with leaners and a 36%-15% lead among independents who expressed a “firm committment”.

Next up is the Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken between 10/8 and 10/12 among 931 likely voters. Johnson and Walker both had identical 52%-44% leads over Feingold and Barrett respectively. While the partisan split was not released, based on the margin of error, independents were a substantial plurality, while Republicans and Democrats were roughly equal in representation. Both Johnson and Walker had roughly 20-point leads among independents.

Finally, the Rasmussen polls taken on 10/25 among 750 likely voters. Johnson had a 53%-46% lead on Feingold, while Walker had a 52%-42% lead on Barrett. Democrats had a 39%-37% advantage in the poll over Republicans, but Johnson held a 21-point advantage and Walker held a 27-point advantage among independents.

Going back over the numbers from RealClearPolitics, in the Senate race, outside the St. Norbert outlier, Johnson has been above 50% since the September primaries and Feingold has been at or under 46% against Johnson since polling started including him in May. On the gubernatorial side, outside of a late-September Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll, Walker has been at or above 50% since the primaries, while Barrett has been at or below 45% for the entire year including that Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll.

Revisions/extensions (1:34 pm 10/29/2010) – I should have procrastinated a bit longer because Public Policy Polling released a poll this morning with Johnson and Walker holding identical 53%-44% leads. Fuller discussion is above.

8th Congressional District

Publicly-available polling has been rather sparse in this district, with only two polls that RealClearPolitics noted, one from The Hill/Penn, Schoen and Berland taken between 10/12 and 10/14 among 415 likely voters and one from DailyKos/Public Policy Polling taken between 10/23 and 10/24 among 1,419 likely voters.

In The Hill’s poll, Republican nominee Reid Ribble had a 45%-44% lead on Democrat incumbent Steve Kagen. There were two items in the crosstabs (courtesy WisPolitics’ DC Wrap) that do not match up with most other polls taken nationwide; the partisan split, and the independent voter result. The split was listed as 38% independent-32% Republican-25% Democrat, while Kagen held a 3-point lead among independents.

The DailyKos poll is far more interesting, not the least of which is the size of the poll. Ribble had a 40%-37% lead on Kagen, with 23% undecided. Meanwhile, Johnson had a 52%-45% lead on Feingold in the district, while Walker had a 52%-44% lead on Barrett.

The demographic percentages at the bottom of the crosstabs seem to have been fouled up, but the partisan split appears to be roughly 38% independent, 31% Democrat and 30% Republican. Among independents, Ribble had a 41%-31% lead, while Johnson had a 16-point lead and Walker a 18-point lead among those same independents.

7th Congressional District

Like the 8th Congressional, publicly-available polling is hard to come by, with the added handicap of no crosstabs from the two outfits that polled the district. The Hill/Penn, Schoen and Berland polled 400 likely voters between 10/2 and 10/7, and found Republican nominee Sean Duffy up on Democrat nominee Julie Lassa 44%-35%. The Hill noted Duffy held a 17-point lead among independents (no partisan split given) and a 2-point lead among women, with Lassa’s only demographic lead being among voters over 55 years old.

An outfit called We Ask America polled 1,150 registered voters on 10/18. They found Duffy up 46.00%-38.61% (yes, they reported to the nearest hundredth of a percent), a bit of a tightening from their 8/4 poll of 1,002 registered voters that had Duffy up 41.83%-33.09%. The partisan split was 39% independent-32% Democrat-29% Republican, and Duffy held a 49.10%-29.95% lead among independents.

October 26, 2010

What To Say About This…

by @ 18:09. Filed under Politics - National.

Vice President Biden was at it again today.

He’s been out stumping for a whole host of Democrat candidates. Today, while spreading propaganda for Democrat Tim Bishop, Biden told the audience:

“Every single great idea that has marked the 21st century, the 20th century and the 19th century has required government vision and government incentive,”

Biden has proven himself to be the Master of Gaffe. Combine that with his ability to speak completely ignorant of facts of any kind and in a way, he’s become boring. I mean, gaffes are funny when you know that the person know better than the words that just came out of their mouth. In Biden’s case, I no longer believe that any of his verbal gaffes are unintentional. I’m more inclined to believe that Biden is willfully ignorant of the facts of the world around him.

When read the above quote, my initial reaction was to put up a post describing how Biden’s comment was typical of leftists who think the world can’t accomplish anything without Mama Government telling it to. I’d then follow that with a list of inventions that prove Biden ignorant. Instead, I think a two word answer will suffice to respond to Biden:

Liquid Paper

New non-tropical low-pressure records

by @ 15:54. Filed under Weather.

This Demon Low is still intensifying, so don’t consider this the final word on it. Late this morning, Superior set a new Wisconsin state record for low pressure at 28.38″ of mercury (adjusted for sea level), breaking the old record of 28.45″ set in Green Bay on April 3, 1982.

Meanwhile, as of 3:13 pm, Orr, Minnesota had a low pressure of 28.22″ of mercury, shattering the previous non-tropical US record of 28.28″ measured just west of Cleveland on January 26, 1978. That is just 0.01″ above the North American non-tropical land record set in Sarnia, Ontario, and a bit above the Great Lakes record of 28.05″ on a buoy in Lake Huron, both measured during that same 1978 blizzard.

For a couple of points of reference, the minimum pressure of the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald bottomed out at 28.95″, and a typical Category 3 hurricane is expected to have minimum pressures between 27.91″ and 28.47″.

Revisions/extensions (5:34 pm 10/26/2010) – Bigfork dropped to 28.21″ of pressure.

R&E part 2 (10:17 pm 10/26/2010) – And it’s a new land record at Bigfork – 28.20″ of pressure recorded at 5:13 pm.

Nevada, North Carolina electronic voting machines preset for straight-D votes

by @ 14:42. Filed under Politics - National, Vote Fraud.

(H/T – Drudge)

Somebody cue Capt. Louis Renault – Democrat election officials are up to the newest versions of their old tricks in trying to steal elections in both Nevada and North Carolina.

Las Vegas’ KVVU-TV reports that voters in Boulder City found that before they had voted for the United States Senate race, Harry Reid’s name was already checked on the touch-screen voting machines. Meanwhile, the New Bern Sun Journal reports that voters who attempted to select a straight-Republican ballot had a straight-Democrat ballot selected by the touch-screen voting machines.

October 25, 2010

Monday Hot Read – P.J. O’Rourke’s “They Hate Our Guts”

by @ 13:01. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – Ed Driscoll, who also explains there is a perpetual undergrad in the White House)

P.J. O’Rourke nailed the Democrat philosophy in the current issue of The Weekly Standard:

They don’t just hate our Republican, conservative, libertarian, strict constructionist, family values guts. They hate everybody’s guts. And they hate everybody who has any. Democrats hate men, women, blacks, whites, Hispanics, gays, straights, the rich, the poor, and the middle class.

Democrats hate Democrats most of all. Witness the policies that Democrats have inflicted on their core constituencies, resulting in vile schools, lawless slums, economic stagnation, and social immobility. Democrats will do anything to make sure that Democratic voters stay helpless and hopeless enough to vote for Democrats.

I can’t do better than his close either:

This is not an election on November 2. This is a restraining order. Power has been trapped, abused and exploited by Democrats. Go to the ballot box and put an end to this abusive relationship. And let’s not hear any nonsense about letting the Democrats off if they promise to get counseling.

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