No Runny Eggs

Yes, I’ve stated I’ll vote for McCain but that doesn’t mean I won’t still poke fun at him!

John McCain seems to be getting hooked by some of the nasty FEC regulations. After using the law to his advantage by gaining access to primaries without having to get signatures in each state, he now doesn’t like the imposition of the spending limits that come along with it.

The part of this that I find most ironic is that McCain’s attorney is claiming a constitutional right for McCain to back out of the FEC program.

Shouldn’t John McCain have worried about the the power that the FEC has and the consitutionality aspect before he muddled it further with McCain Feingold?

While participating in the live blogging of last night’s  Democrat debate, I kept thinking (in between the need to swallow the puke that kept filling my mouth following either candidate’s answer) that the differences between Hillary and Barack could be printed on the head of a pin in a 12 point font and still have room to print the New Testament alongside it.  

The only  difference  that the cadidates could gin up any kind of a debate about, was their particular brand of socialist healthcare.   They debated this issue with intensity as if they had 10 seconds left to decide whether the green or red wire needed to be cut to keep a nuclear explosion from destroying Austin!   All I could hear from it was that one wanted to use guns to force you to buy their socialist insurance and the other wanted to use BIG guns.

In general, the debate went on with the two candidates smiling, agreeing and giving each other platitudes.   Without knowing it at the time, Hillary summed up the evening and solidified her position as LOSER with the following quote:

“change you can Xerox.”

The only chance Hillary had of beating Barack was to create some actual difference between them. Without any difference, Barack wins hands down because he is imminently more likeable and has all the momentum. She didn’t create any difference, Barack and Hillary look to be “Change you can Xerox!”

Surprisingly, I’m not talking about Barack Obama, I’m talking about Mike Huckabee. In an interview this morning, Huckabee claims that he will stay in the race, suprise McCain in Texas and Ohio, and force a deadlocked convention.

According to Real Clear Politics MCcain currently has 975 delegates. 1,191 delegates are required for the nomination. Romney has said that he wants his delegates to vote for McCain. Romney has 272 delegates. Doesn’t that put him over the top?

OK, so let’s say that Romney’s folks don’t follow the leader. McCain is leading polls by double digits in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A total of 302 delegates are available in these states. Is any clear thinking person believing that McCain doesn’t have this thing wrapped up? A total of 875 delegates are yet to be settled, does anyone think McCain won’t get at least 25% of those?

I’ve said it before, Huckabee is staying in this thing for his ego. He changes his reasoning following each primary to fit some new delusional view of how the world might be. If Mike is able to craft personal delusions for a losing cause as a nominee, what kinds of delusions do you think he could live in if he was faced with a serious security threat to the US? Is this the type of thinking we would want for the man that has his finger on “the button?”

CNN has it, and I have the beer. Let’s drunk-blog. As usual, I’ll be paraphrasing a lot (I’m not that fast a typist), the questions will be in italics, the answers in plain-text, and my comments in-line with a question or answer will be in parentheses. Also, the courtesy lamp is out, so expect a lot of bombs.

Somewhere below, I asked what Mike Huckabee was still doing in the race. The answer I came up with was that he was pushing to pass Mitt Romney’s vote total to become the “next in line” for the 2012 campaign. According to CNN, after the “Potomac primaries”, he trailed Romney 4.17 million to 2.74 million in the primary votes (or by 1.43 million votes). Since we had a pair of primaries with only John McCain and Huckabee actively campaigning since then, I can do some very sketchy back-of-the-envelope math. Washington State hasn’t finished counting yet according to CNN, so I’ll have to start assuming early. Huckabee was ahead of Romney approximately 82,000 to 76,000 with 57% reporting, and AP still had no results from 4 of Washington’s 9 Congressional districts. I’ll assume that the remaining vote actually breaks a bit more in Huckabee’s favor and give him 150,000 to Romney’s 100,000. Coming out of those states, the spread should be about 1.24 million.

Do bear in mind that I’m doing some serious assumptions here, from what the vote total in Washington State will look like when they’re done counting to not taking any regional or political party bias into account. I’ll also assume for the ease of math that Romney picks up nothing; .

Over the course of the campaign so far, the states that have held primaries have had approximately 44,200 votes cast per electoral vote. There are 16 states with primaries left, with 2 of them nothing more than beauty contests: Ohio (20), Rhode Island (4), Texas (34), Vermont (3), Mississippi (6), Pennsylvania (21), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), Nebraska (5; meaningless primary), West Virginia (5), Oregon (7), Kentucky (8), Idaho (4), South Dakota (3), Montana (3; meaningless primary), and New Mexico (5). Those states have 154 electoral votes between them, and if the math holds, there’s approximately 6.81 million votes left to be picked up if the fight goes all the way to New Mexico. If that holds true, Huckabee would need just over 18.2% of the remaining vote (plus a number equal to whatever Romney gets) to pass Romney.

That’s easily doable. The trickier question is, when will that happen? Ignoring any votes that Romney may get in future primaries, if that is to happen on March 4, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont vote, Huckabee would need to get just under 46% of the total vote in those states. To avoid this dragging on to Pennsylvania and April 22, he’d have to get just under 42% of the total vote from those 4 states and Mississippi. If one adds in the sole April primary of Pennsylvania to keep the quest out of May, Huckabee would have to get just under 32% of the total vote from those 6 states.

The follow-up question is whether that’s going to happen before John McCain hits 1,191 delegates. Depending on how one slices and dices the delegate count, McCain is anywhere between roughly 160 and 280 short right now (less any ex-Romney or “uncommitted Party” delegates that have announced support for McCain that I don’t know about). By the time the March 4 primaries finish up, 288 delegates will be selected (including 20 from Puerto Rico, 6 from the Northern Marianas and 6 from American Samoa), with another 36 from Mississippi and 6 from Guam, as well as the final selection of 26 from Alaska at their state convention, in March. My best guess is that both will happen on April 22.

In short, we’re in for another 2 months of the remains of the Huck-a-boom being a leech on John McCain’s not-exactly-full bank account. Just wonderful </sarcasm>.

John McCain has now been quoted saying that Pres. Bush should veto the bill that restricts interrogation techniques. McCain is not saying that he has changed his position on waterboarding (a techinque that I can’t find a reason to call “torture”.) He does say that Bush should not allow Congress to restrict methods to those outlined in the army field manual.

Perhaps the most noteworthy piece of this article is:

“If a president disagrees with legislation, he should veto it, McCain said. He said he disapproves that Bush sometimes signs legislation he dislikes, then issues critical “signing statements” outlining his objections.”

If you take this at face value, McCain will actual fight the fight and make it obvious for the American People. Today, Pres. Bush signs many bills and than adds “signing statements” which will attempt to withhold legal authority on some items. This falls short in that it doesn’t always “hold water” as a rule of law. Plus, it doesn’t raise the issue so that the American people can weigh in by hitting up their Representatives and Senators.

This is one instance where John McCain’s straight forward approach may benefit conservative voters by giving them an opportunity to call their representatives to accountability.

While I haven’t had the privilege of blogging here for very long, it’s probably apparent that I have been no supporter of John McCain. I’ve been like a lot of you during this nomination process. I went from not seeing anyone I would vote for to supporting Fred Thompson because he was/is the only person I considered a conservative in the mix. When Thompson dropped out I made my one “deal with the devil” and switched to Romney. He’s not a true-blue conservative but I could find myself dreaming enough conservatism in him to pass muster. Well, Romney is out and the last man standing is McCain…what to do?

Like most of you, McCain really hacks me off! Every time he refers to us as “my friends” I feel the need to shower. On too many occassions I feel like he has gone deliberately out of his way to poke his thumb in my eye and follow it up with some sanctimonious blathering about his principles and looking out for the American people.

OK, deep breath…count to ten…one, two, ten!

Unless your name is Mike Huckabee or Hillary Clinton, it’s obvious that McCain is the Republican nominee and that his likely opponent will be Barack Obama. Are any of us really serious when we say “We want to teach the Republicans a lesson” and by extension that we’re OK risking having Obama as President rather than McCain? Really? You’re OK with that? If you are, I have to question what kind of a conservative you are. In fact, if you’re really serious about that than are you any different than McCain pouting after being shot down on immigration?   Now that I’ve riled you (If I haven’t you don’t need to read the rest of this), let’s look at why we should support McCain.

1. Supreme Court Justices – It is possible that during the next Presidential term 2 – 3 Supreme Court Justices could retire.   Do you really want Barack Obama picking up to 3 Justices?   McCain may not be fond of Alito but he is of Roberts.   Do you have a problem with 3 additional Justices with the ideology and thinking of Roberts being appointed?
2. War on Terror – Barack Obama has vowed to remove troops from Iraq by ’09.   He has stated on numerous occassions that his approach to International issues including the War on Terror is to talk to people.   Talk to people????   Isn’t that pretty much what got us into the situation we’re in today by Bill Clinton talking to people?   Do you really want another Jimmy Carter in the Whitehouse?   I’m not suggesting that we go and blow nations off the map but without a credible threat of force, talk will only result in additional talk.   Do you have any question of McCain’s resolve to keep America safe?
3. Fiscal – OK, McCain didn’t vote for the tax cuts.   I’ll even give you that I don’t believe his tap dance about not voting for them because he wanted spending cuts to go with them.   However, he has stated on numerous occasions lately that he will make the tax cuts permanent.   Also, he has been a hawk on earmark reform and budget accountability.   On the other hand, have you taken a look at Obama’s economic policies?   I believe Obama’s policies can be summed up  as “Everyone’s a victim of something.   I’m going to give you all money so you feel less like a victim and become more beholden to the Democrats.”   Is that something that you would be OK with?
4. House and Senate – If the conservatives sit out Obama will likely win in a landslide fashion.   If he does, his coattails are likely to be very long.   Conservative government begins in the House.   Remember Newt Gingrich?   Remember what that congress was able to accomplish?   Remember who was President?   Do you think McCain is more liberal than Clinton’s natural tendencies?   If Obama wins, I fear that not only will we be House minorities but with 24 Republicans retiring, we might run the risk of deteriorating to a veto proof minority.   Would you be OK with that?

I don’t know if McCain can win even if he gets the conservative support.   I know damn sure he can’t win without it.   If McCain loses we may get a momentary emotional satisfaction but we will have a long term physical reality of the negative consequences.  

It’s time for those that claim conservative  ideology to quit whining and move forward.   With McCain we  may not have a perfect situation but it gives us a chance to improve on it.   Without McCain we will be voices in  a wilderness  for a period that could make the forty years of the Hebrews a mere blink of an eye.  And yes, I include myself in that group.

Remember, we can still sabotage the ‘Rats like they did the Pubbies, so go vote for Hiliar…(dammit, I almost slipped) Hillary Clintoo…(there I go again) Clinton in the primary Tuesday after listening to The Ventilators “Superdelegate (It’s Not Easy)”.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYq90WLK8dE[/youtube]

Just remember to shower after participating in the NRE Spring Hill campaign, and do not, repeat, NOT repeat that in November.

I suspect this was the last thing that Mike Huckabee thought would happen; Mitt Romney endorsing John McCain.

I had actually been contemplating the effect of Romney’s endorsement earlier this week. I saw it as the one thing, prior to sometime in late April or maybe May, that could call Huckabee’s bluff about remaining in the race. Huckabee has been continuing to say he was in the race not for himself but to make sure that people had a vote. Even though the math showed that Huckabee had a slim or nothing chance of winning he would reply with a pat answer, “I know the pundits and I know what they say — that the math doesn’t work out,” he said. “Folks, I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles, and I still believe in those too.”

If this announcement proves true and Huckabee still remains in the race, all the kids on “Are you smarter than a fifth grader?” will be able to do the math!   If Huckabee does not bow out, it will show his true colors; he’s in it for his ego and to sell books.

Rumors are out that John McCain will resign his Senate seat to focus on the Presidential campaign.

As I continue to look for the silver lining of a McCain candidacy or Presidency, this may be one! It would be almost impossible for a Rat to take McCain’s seat. Even with Bush’s anemic support in ’04, he carried Arizona 55%/45%. I don’t purport to know all the names on this list but you won’t find a better borders person than JD Hayworth.

I’ve stolen too much of Tom McMahon’s material already, so I’ll simply point you to his two-part look at how the Web is viewing the three-horse race:

– Part 1 – Web traffic
– Part 2 – CafePress designs

I’ll be concerned when there’s a mine shaft gap.

Revisions/extensions part 2 (8:00 am 2/15/2008) – With Romney officially endorsing John McCain and releasing his delegates with instructions to vote for McCain, I guess I should update the numbers some, which I will do at the top. A quick look through the primaries, which I had assumed were all “bound” candidates, shows that several states, like Michigan, unbound them when Romney suspended his campaign or otherwise had them unbound. Fox News had estimated that the actual number of “bound” delegates at the time of Romney’s announcements yesterday was about 110 (give or take a couple; I had most of my attention on the race). Morever, there is a question of whether those 110 could be instructed to vote for McCain.

Assuming not, the calculus does not change at all. However, if those 110 can be bound to McCain, that would be 110 of the roughly 355 delegates (backing out the caucuses again, putting in some delegates that CNN had not allocated from Super-Duper Tuesday, especially from California) he needs. Further, if my caucus estimates are right, that would make McCain’s magic number approximately 125, and that’s without the 5-6 I expect him to get from the FUBAR’ed Washington State caucuses.

One more housekeeping item; I did finally run the vote totals (using CNN’s numbers), and Romney has a 4.30 million to 2.82 million vote lead on Huckabee. Guess Huck isn’t going anywhere for a while.

The talk has been flying around the right side of the blogosphere over why Mike Huckabee is still in this race, when just about everybody agrees that it is only a matter of time before John McCain gets to 1,191 delegates. To put it simply, he’s trying to become the “next in line”. Since 1956, Republicans have chosen from only four categories: the sitting President, the sitting or ex-Vice President, the person who had the second-most delegates in the previous hotly-contested primary, or a blood relative of an ex-President.

By remaining in the race, Huckabee is damaging his chances to become the Vice Presidential nominee. His continued campaigning is causing McCain to spend money he doesn’t really have to make sure the inevitable does become inevitable. However, I don’t believe that becoming the VP nominee is Huckabee’s goal. Take another look at those 4 categories; you will not find “unsuccessful Vice Presidential nominee” among them. It certainly appears that Huckabee has calculated that there is no hope for the Republican ticket this year, and to be honest, I can’t really disagree with that assessment.

Rather, he’s attempting to overtake Mitt Romney for that “next in line” spot. Remember, Romney used the word “suspend” to describe the end his campaign; that means he still controls the delegates he had won to that point. That, however, does not include delegates from caucus states like Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada; the actual binding of delegates to candidates have not yet occurred. Even though the CNN delegate count currently has Romney up 286-217, the only adjustments they have made to Romney’s and Huckabee’s counts was to take away the “unpledged RNC” delegates away from Romney; CNN still assumes that the eventual binding of delegates to candidates will follow the results of the precinct caucuses. It is safe to say that, for example, almost no representative to Minnesota’s district or state convention at the end of May will vote for a national delegate that will vote for Romney in the national convention.

Therefore, let’s strip away all of those delegates. Romney would lose 141 from CNN’s calculations, while Huckabee would lose only 25. If my math is right, Huckabee has more actual pledged delegates than Romney, 192-145. However, the last time Flip ran his Republican scorecard, Romney held a rather substantial popular vote lead over Huckabee. I don’t have the time at this point to re-evaluate that, but I suspect that still holds true as there was a sizable “protest” vote for Romney last night.

Just for grins, let’s apply the same math to John McCain. CNN has him with 812 delegates, with most of Maryland’s still to be officially allocated to him (The Green Papers suggests that McCain has indeed swept all the districts in Maryland, which would give him another 24). Do note that the delegate CNN awarded him in Maine is not tied to the caucus, but to the “unpledged” party delegates. Therefore, I can only take away 11 10 from the caucus states listed above. After I take away the 10 and add the 24 that CNN had not, he has 826 delegates in his pocket.

Now, let’s do some back-of-the-envelope projections of where those 193 delegates from the caucus states listed above (R&E; I should have been a bit clearer on this point; sorry about that) are going to go, assuming Huckabee remains in the race to the point the national delegates are selected (and in Iowa’s case, bound to the candidates). For simplicity’s sake, I’ll assume that Ron Paul will keep his 11 delegates, even though he’s more likely to lose them as the party insiders decide things than he is to gain any further support within the party. I’ve assumed that 3/4ths of the support for the various candidates that dropped out will go to the endorsed candidate, with the other 1/4th going to the other major candidate. I’ll toss in some extra-secret sauce, blend it through a spreadsheet, and conservatively say that McCain will pick up 120 of those 182, with Huckabee picking up the other 62.

Add that back into the numbers above, and McCain effectively enjoys a 946-254 lead with 1,019 delegates left to go, plus Romney’s 145 “pledged” delegates. McCain needs to pick up about 245 delegates, or about 24% of the remaining delegates, to lock up the nomination, while Huckabee and Paul together would need to pick up 774 delegates (76% of the remaining delegates) just to potentially send it to a brokered convention, and that assumes McCain does not pick up any of Romney’s “pledged” delegates.

Revisions/extensions (1:14 pm 2/13/2008) – Welcome, Campaign Spot readers. I hope my server is stout enough to handle this. To answer Jim’s question, did anybody not named McCain nor on his campaign, between March 2000 and November 2007, think McCain would be the nominee after George W. Bush?

I know this may be a bit challenging time wise but…

I propose that we quickly amend the constitution so that the next President is picked only by Super Delegates. We also have to make sure that ALL Super Delegates are males between the age of 21 and 25.

Crazy idea? Who do you think would be more successful at influencing their vote?

This daughter

or this daughter?

Oh, and just for the record, I do not think sending your daughter to visit a 21 year old Super Delegate is pimping. I don’t think there’s ever been a Clinton that has been exploited…..exploitive yes, but never exploited.

The noise of nails being pounded into a coffin should be keeping Mike Huckabee from getting a good nights sleep. Unless all the polls and the Intrade markets are wrong, today’s Potomac primaries should be a clean sweep for McCain. If so, McCain will pick up an additional 119 delegates putting him at 843, just 348 short of locking up the nomination.

But wait! Huckabee is expecting a miracle! He’s said he’s staying in the race until it’s done!

The next series of Republican primaries and delegates at stake are: Wisconsin (40), Ohio (88), Rhode Island (20), Texas (140) and Vermont (17). Unfortunately for Mike, all but Rhode Island are winner take all states. Further, unfortunately for Mike, the only state he’s “close” in is Texas.    By “close” I mean he’s trailing by low double digits in the polls. I suspect after today’s whipping a low double digit gap may be something for the Huckabee campaign to aspire to!

Giving mike the benefit of the doubt in RI and saying he gets a split, that still puts McCain at 1148 delegates, 43 short of the lock, by March 4th.

Hucakbee may be able to stave things off until April but why? There’s no way he will get enough delegates to contend for the Pres. spot. I don’t even see how he gets any delegates that makes him a more meaningful choice for VP. He’s either on McCain’s short list already or he isn’t…the remaining primaries aren’t going to change that.

Everybody thinks Huckabee is staying in the race for the VP slot but a rational look at the delegate race just doesn’t support that.   Hucakbee is staying in the race for some other reason. Maybe he wants publicity for his recently released book. Maybe he’s gotten used to being in the limelight and just wants to extend his fifteen minutes of fame.

What ever Hucakbee’s reason for staying in the race I’ve got a news flash for him: It’s over!

Mike, between now and whatever date the official tally moves over the magic number of 1,191, all you’re doing is giving the Rats more talking points to use in the general election. We don’t need that. Mike, if you really care about defeating the Rats in November than step aside. We need to figure out what to do with McCain and you’re staying in the race just muddies that up.   After the results of today’s primaries come out, meet the cameras with the smile and optimism that are your trademarks and as part of your concession speech tell folks that you’ve  suspended your campaign; that today is the first day of the rest of your life!

 Update:   Intrade predictions swung hard to Huckabee this afternoon with some buys in the 60%+ of winning VA.   Regardless, it may only change the timing of, not the resulting outcome.