No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics – National' Category

May 21, 2009

Thursday Midday Read – Rick Moran’s “Not Socialism: Gangsterism”

by @ 12:17. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

It is Thursday, so I’m resting from heavy lifting. Fortunately, Rick Moran isn’t. Rick may average a post a weekday, and he does at times have a bit of contempt for social conservatives, but those posts are must-reads.

This one is no different. Rick runs with a letter from a Dodge dealer getting shut off from the Dodge brand with no assistance from Dodge to relieve him of his soon-to-be-worthless inventory of cars and parts into why Obama is able to get away with what he’s doing, to an explanation of why it’s not merely an extension of what Bush did. I’ll give you a mid-post taste:

It can happen because at the moment, the opposition forces are scattered, dispirited, and engaged in a fruitless quest to determine who is a “real” conservative and who is an Obama loving, free market hating, wimpy, squishy RINO.

It can happen because we are barking up the wrong tree when we accuse the Democrats of practicing socialism. Any Chicagoan recognizes what’s going on as pure gangsterism – the application of power through the use blackmail, threats, and pure muscle and the devil take the Constitution, the rule of law, and simple fairness.

Daughter of Waxman-Markey even worse

by @ 7:00. Filed under Envirowhackos, Politics - National.

Last Friday, I gave you the original Heritage Foundation estimates of the economic effects of the Waxman-Markey Cap-and-Trade-Tax plan. Because it couldn’t get enough support from rank-and-file ‘Rats, it went back to the drawing board. The Heritage Foundation found that the effects are even worse the second time around:

  • The cumulative GDP reduction through 2035 increases from $7.4 trillion to $9.6 trillion
  • The average yearly job loss increases from 844,000 lost jobs per year to 1,105,000 lost jobs per year
  • The peak yearly job losses increases from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000

Nick Loris explains:

  • Our original economic analysis had the government auctioning off the allowances (rights to emit) carbon dioxide. The auction revenue, the equivalent of tax revenue, went into the hands of the government, which in turn created more government jobs. In the second version of the bill, the government distributed allowances to various businesses in an attempt to mitigate the near-term economic damage done by the bill. As a result, jobs in the private sector fell less than the original but the government jobs decreased more because the government did not receive the allowance revenue from the auction. Overall employment fell.
  • Think of the allowances given away as subsidies to businesses. When these subsidies stop and allowances begin to be auctioned off, the economy is again “shocked” with higher indirect taxes and businesses must make costly adjustments to this new economic condition.
  • Real GDP losses increase an additional $2 trillion from the bill because investment for businesses is worse under the new bill. Again, the government is not auctioning off the rights for businesses to emit carbon dioxide; they are giving them away in the near-term. These giveaways add to the national debt, crowd out private sector investment and drive up interest rates. Increased interest rates further drive up the debt. This creates a vicious cycle in which businesses significantly reduce their investment. The lack of investment (that drives the overall economy) produces higher real GDP losses and lowers the potential of the overall economy.

But wait, it gets even worse. Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) reports that the ‘Rats added, on a party line vote, mandates that all home sales include an energy-efficiency inspection and a study be made in preparation for every product sold in the United States to be labeled as to their CO2 “content” (i.e. how much CO2 is emitted in the manufacture of each product).

Somehow, I think the fine folks at Heritage understated the damage to the economy.

Revisions/extensions (7:42 am 5/21/2009) – (H/T – McQ) I’m suddenly feeling like Billy Mays here. But wait, that’s not all! As part of their Top Ten list, Heritage included this handy graphic showing just how big a bite Cap-and-Trade-Tax will take.

For those of you who missed it, it handily beats food, clothing, furniture, the current cost of household energy, and the average property tax. Of course, those of us in Wisconsin pay a lot more in property tax, but $3,900 even beats that.

Hot Read Thursday – Karl Rove’s “Flip-Flops and Governance”

by @ 6:00. Filed under Politics - National.

Karl Rove lists a whole litany of things that, as Jim Geraghty terms it, reached their expiration date, between the Obama candidacy and the Obama Presidency. I’ll force you over to The Wall Street Journal to read the list, but I will tease you with the close:

Mr. Obama either had very little grasp of what governing would involve or, if he did, he used words meant to mislead the public. Neither option is particularly encouraging. America now has a president quite different from the person who advertised himself for the job last year. Over time, those things can catch up to a politician.

There are two questions:

  • Will those expired statements catch up to Obama before or after 2012?
  • Which group will catch up to him first – the electorate at large or the moonbats that foisted him upon the rest of us?

May 20, 2009

War on corporations holding back economic recovery

by @ 22:38. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

(H/T – Asian Badger)

Forbes publisher Rich Karlgaard notes something missing from the ingredients that are coming together for economic recovery – CEO confidence. Quoting Rich

The Fed has done its job. (Maybe too well, but that’s another story for another day.) Consumer sentiment and spending have bounced back. The headwinds that remain have less to do with bank stress tests and more to do with CEO mood. The Business Roundtable, which represents big business, reported “record low” CEO confidence in April:

–71% of CEOs plan more layoffs in the next six months.

–Most see declines in capital spending.

–The CEO Economic Outlook Index was negative for the first time.

Why is that so? History provides a guide (again quoting Rich):

In her book The Forgotten Man, Amity Shlaes wrote that the 1937–38 “depression within the Depression” occurred when capital went on strike. President Roosevelt’s willingness to “try anything” (including retroactive taxation, laws against discount pricing and an attempt at packing the Supreme Court) had businesses and their backers so confused over FDR’s rules that they simply withdrew.

This is the risk of President Obama’s willingness to “do what it takes.” Those words sound positive and action-oriented. They really mean “anything can happen.” The tearing up of legal contracts? That can happen. Limits to salary and travel? That can happen. Bullying by the Environmental Protection Agency? That can happen. Nationalization of General Motors and Citigroup? That can happen. Nobody knows for sure what will happen. Government is sorting it out day by day.

There are two things that can happen with a lack of investment from the CEOs and, as Dad29 points out in the comments over at Asian Badger, the corporate bond market, and neither of them are good: increased unemployment as business continue to shed workers, and increased inflation as more money (in this case, caused by an extremely loose Fed bolstered by consumer confidence) chases fewer goods (caused by a lack of capital investment). As they say, those who don’t remember history (or willfully ignore its painful lessons),….

The line must be held here

by @ 21:37. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

(H/T – JammieWearingFool, who hasn’t had a Full Metal Jacket Reach-Around in a while)

The News Organization That Cannot Be Quoted™ reports that the Senate, not content with slapping a 3-cent-per-12-ounce tax on sugary drinks to pay for nationalized universal health care, is planning on massive increases in alcohol excise taxes to do the same:

– 17% on hard liquor, from $2.14 per fifth to $2.54 per fifth
– 233% on wine, from $0.21 per bottle to $0.70 per bottle
– 145% on beer, from $0.33 per six-pack to $0.71 per six-pack

Lest one thinks that they’re going to stop there, let’s run the numbers:

– It is estimated that nationalized universal health care will cost $1,500 billion over the first 10 years. We all know that’s a low-ball figure, but let’s run with it.
– The sugar tax would supposedly bring in $50 billion over that 10 years.
– The new alcohol tax would supposedly bring in $60 billion over 10 years.

That leaves, assuming the nationalized universal health care costs aren’t understated and the revenues aren’t overstated, a $1,390 billion hole. Need I remind the bipartisan Party-In-Government that California rejected tax increases yesterday? I seem to recall excessive taxation being the reason why we don’t bow to Queen Elizabeth II.

Yet another reason why I don’t do ads – your Federal government

by @ 21:13. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Robert Stacy McCain)

When I went to BlogWorld in 2007, I remember seeing something about pay-per-post, where companies would pay bloggers to write good stuff about their products. Apparently, the ninnies that can’t read the Constitution over at the Federal Trade Commission just discovered that (either that, or they got into power on 1/20 and got to this point in their checklist). BusinessWeek reports:

But such back-scratching endorsements could become tougher under a coming set of Federal Trade Commission guidelines designed to clarify how companies can court bloggers to write about their products. This summer, the government agency is expected to issue new advertising guidelines that will require bloggers to disclose when they’re writing about a sponsor’s product and voicing opinions that aren’t their own. The new FTC guidelines say that blog authors should disclose when they’re being compensated by an advertiser to discuss a product.

Don’t get me wrong; those that do accept items of value in return for raving about a particular product should disclose that. However, we don’t need the federal government mandating it.

For the record, no corporate entity has ever given me anything in exchange for blog-inches. Of course, the fact that I don’t do reviews has something to do with that.

Bloggers To The NRSC: Stay Out Of Primaries (via Right Wing News)

by @ 11:55. Filed under Politics - National.

I may not be a big blogger, but I wholeheartedly agree with what John Hawkins and Erick Erickson put together:

Dear Senator Cornyn,

We the undersigned believe that the National Republican Senatorial Committee should be committed to serving ALL the members of the Republican Party.

Additionally, the NRSC should be focused on defeating Democrats, not Republicans. Towards that end, we believe it was completely inappropriate for the NRSC to endorse a candidate in the Florida primary race.

Therefore, we request that both you and the NRSC alter your position on the Florida Senate race, maintain neutrality, and promise to spend no money directly or indirectly in that race.

Sincerely yours,

John Hawkins
Right Wing News

Erick Erickson
Redstate

Ed Morrissey
Hot Air

Jon Henke
The Next Right

Eric Odom
American Liberty Alliance

Pamela Geller
Atlas Shrugs

R.S. McCain
The Other McCain, Right Wing News, Not One Red Cent

Dan Riehl
Riehl World View

Jeff Goldstein
Protein Wisdom

Kevin Aylward
Wizbang!

Lorie Byrd
Wizbang!

David Blount
Moonbattery, Right Wing News

Melissa Clouthier
Melissa Clouthier, The Other McCain, Right Wing News

Jeff Vreeland
Tech Republican, President of VM Technologies and IT Chairman for the YRNF

Matt Lewis
Politics Daily

Ned Ryun
The Madison Project

Justin Hart

John Caldwell

Joshua Trevino
Co-founder of Redstate, founder of Treviño Strategies and Media.

Chip Hanlon
Red County

Robert Loewen
President of the Lincoln Club of Orange County

Richard Wagner
Chairman of the Lincoln Club of Orange County

Allow me to add my signature to the list:

-Steve Eggleston
No Runny Eggs

Patients Choice Act announced

by @ 11:09. Filed under Health, Politics - National.

Reps. Paul Ryan (R-WI, and my Congressman) and Devin Nunes (R-CA) and Sens. Dr. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Richard Burr (R-NC) unveiled the Patients Choice Act earlier today. As part of the publicity push, they wrote an op-ed piece carried by Real Clear Politics. From the beginning of that:

While President Obama may believe the stars are aligned for major health reform this year it is far from certain whether Congress will pass a bill that works. The groups that are most likely to unravel this effort are not the president’s opponents, but his allies. Nothing will rally ordinary Americans against the president’s plan more than his allies arguing too forcefully for a system run by politicians and bureaucrats in Washington – what we call the “public option” in the Obama plan.

It should come as no surprise that this ideologically rigid position is coming under fire. As the Washington Post recently wrote, “the fixation on a public plan is bizarre and counterproductive … It is entirely possible to imagine effective health-care reform – changes that would expand coverage and help control costs – without a public option.”

I’m still sifting through the long summary and the Q&A that Rep. Ryan’s office sent over, so I will be updating this post this afternoon. In the interim, you may as well enjoy them, as well as the short 2-page summary. I wish I could offer you the text, but the Library of Congress’ THOMAS system doesn’t have it up yet.

PCA Q&A
PCA long summary
PCA short summary

My immediate reaction is that this is a far sight better than what the Democrats have been cooking since 1993.

Hot Read Wednesday – RS McCain’s “Toward a More Cynical Theory of Politics”

by @ 6:41. Filed under Politics - National.

How good is Robert Stacy McCain? He takes a perceived personal slight and turns it into an expose into what went wrong for the GOP. The payoff:

Like the corporate manager who loses sight of his responsibility to the customers and to the stockholders, the Republican elite have lost sight of whose interests the party was intended to serve. What is really at issue here is, “Whose party is this?”

Is this a party that belongs to Republican voters? Or is it a party that belongs to the hired consultants and strategists, the think-tank wonks and lobbyists, the Kathleen Parkers and David Brookses? And of these two groups, which is more responsible for the GOP’s recent defeats — the elite or the grassroots? On Election Night, I wrote an American Spectator column with the title, “You Did Not Lose,” which I think accurately answers that question.

Republican voters are more powerful than the Republican elite; the latter are dependent on the former, and not vice versa. If the elite no longer serves the interests of the voters, a new elite can be easily created. Ambitious young Republican political operatives are a dime a dozen in Washington. It is only because the grassroots don’t know their own power that they have put up with the elite’s abuse as long as they have.

Go. Read. Now!

May 19, 2009

Live-blogging the death of useful, roomy cars

by @ 11:06. Filed under Envirowhackos, Politics - National.

I’ve got Fox News on now, and in the pre-show, Major Garrett noted that additional standards will be based on specific types of cars (i.e. bigger cars won’t quite be required to get 39 mpg). Unspoken, but assumed, is that smaller cars would be required to get more than 39 mpg.

It’s been a while since I did a live-blog the old-fastioned way. I don’t feel like firing up the CiL for this. Do hit refresh for the latest, as things are expected to kick off a bit after 11:15 am Central. BTW, I’m taking bets on how late Obama and company will be. I’ve got 9:13 after the appointed time.

11:19 – The captive and greedy automotive execs and the Gorebal “Warming” crowd is waiting. Tick. Tock.

11:20 – That was not a slip of the tongue by Jon Scott – Government Motors indeed.

11:22:44 – Obama finally shows up. Time for intros.

11:23 – First one is a shout-out to Plastic Pelosi (she’s going nowhere, folks). EPA chair, a near-snub of Ahnold in the governor’s intros (Granholm first). Senators missing because they’re screwing those that pay credit card bills on time.

11:24 – First “industry” shout-out to the head of the UAW. The rest of the cabinet now. Since when is HUD part of the “Green Team”? Oh, and where’s LaHood, the RepubicRAT who’s in charge of implementing CAFE?

11:26 – Another shoutout to the UAW before a general one to the cowed and craven. We are setting a national screw-industry-and-motorists standard.

11:27 – Amazing what a little Chicago Way Muscle can do to titans of industry. Oil is Teh Eeeeevil (side note – why not drill here, drill now, drill everywhere, dumbass?)

11:28 – “We’ve known since the oil crises of the 1970s” (and your fellow ‘Rats have been blocking all of the domestic production solutions since then).

11:29 – This is a harbringer of change – “We will not longer accept that government is too small”. (Them’s fighting words)

11:30 – Because of the tyrrany of the bipartisan Party-In-Government, each seeking to implement its own policy, we’re taking the worst of all possible policies. Because we’re giving in to the envirowhackos, they’re dropping their lawsuits.

11:32 – At a time when the domestic auto industry is in painful flux, we’re going to give it the certainty that it’s getting shoved off the cliff and under my bus.

11:33 – You can’t save money if you don’t spend (er, hybrids still don’t make sense).

11:34 – We’ll save 1.8 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to taking 58 million cars off the road (money says they’ll try to take 58 million cars off the road anyway).

11:35 – Mo’ spending money. Plug-in hybrids get a shoutout, as does electrical transmission (er, what about electrical production?)

11:36 – We’re going to break in 8 years what took 80 to build. Call to the ‘Rat version of bipartisanship (bull-fucking-shit)

11:37 – A third specific shoutout to the UAW. They bought the office.

11:39 – We’re not quite out – a shout-out for the only domestic SUV to make the 30 mpg grade – the Ford Escape Hybrid.

11:40 – Major Garrett pointing out that Congress has no role. Translation – the Goron won, and he’s going to ram it straight up the backside. Oh, and whatever we do will be overwhelmed by Red Chinese and Indian pollution.

NOW we’re done.

Paul Ryan – Please be alarmed

by @ 10:56. Filed under Politics - National.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, and my Congressman) wrote the following for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune today regarding the entitlement crisis:

It has become a yearly drill: The Medicare and Social Security trustees sound a clear warning that, without reform, both of these programs will go bankrupt in the not-so-distant future. It has also become a yearly drill for those in Washington to respond to the alarm by hitting the snooze button.

This year’s trustees’ report makes clear the growing urgency of this problem — especially with the effects of the recession — and the severity of the repercussions should this avoidance habit continue.

Highlights of the report include:

SOCIAL SECURITY

  • In just seven years, Social Security’s benefit obligation will exceed its cash income from tax revenues, thus other programs will begin to be tapped for resources.
  • By 2037, the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted. As a result, future retirees will face an immediate across-the-board benefit cut of up to 24 percent.
  • Over the next 75 years, the trust funds have an unfunded liability of $5.3 trillion.

MEDICARE

  • This program, which finances health care for retirees, is also headed for bankruptcy, but at greater speed and with more severe consequences.
  • According to the trustees, the entire program’s unfunded obligations have risen to $37.8 trillion.
  • The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which is financed by a dedicated payroll tax, will this year begin running a cash deficit; by 2017, it will be bankrupt.

To his credit, President Obama has acknowledged the need to address these problems. But his budget actually makes the problem worse by expanding the already unsustainable growth of entitlement spending by $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years. The administration has also indicated it will ignore the trustees’ fourth consecutive Medicare funding warning (also included in the report), passing up the special procedure the warning provides: to force Congress to take action on critical Medicare reform.

We no longer have the luxury of waiting; with each year of delay, the problem gets exponentially worse, and the likelihood grows that Congress will be forced to react with deep cuts in benefits or increases in tax or debt burdens to intolerable levels. The programs will fail to meet their obligations, and in the process will put immense burdens on the economy and the budget, crippling our ability to compete in the global marketplace and shrinking future Americans’ standards of living.

We must steer a different course. If we act now, we can transform this problem into an opportunity — to make these important programs stronger, more responsive, more resilient, more sustainable and more in line with the way our economy really works.

That is why last year I introduced comprehensive legislation called “A Roadmap for America’s Future.” (Ed. link added) My bill not only addresses the Medicare and Social Security crisis, but also Medicaid, health care and our overly complex, anticompetitive tax code, to ensure America can regain its footing on the path to a secure, prosperous future.

Here are its key components:

  • It fulfills the mission of health and retirement security for all Americans by rescuing and strengthening Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. These vital programs will be made permanently solvent under my plan.
  • By reforming our tax code, it promotes solid economic growth and job creation here in America and puts the United States in a position to lead — not merely survive — in the international marketplace.
  • It lifts the burden of debt from the shoulders of future generations by returning federal spending growth to sustainable levels.

This is a real plan, with real proposals, real numbers to back them and real legislation to implement it. It is ambitious, and not everyone agrees with every aspect of it. That’s fine; we must have this debate. Inaction is no longer an option.

…And then they came for the radio ratings…

by @ 9:28. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes, who stands to lose if the ObamiNation wins)

The Radio Equalizer reports that the same groups heavily invested in vote fraud and census fraud are attempting to get rid of an accurate measure of radio listening, Arbitron’s Portable People Meter, because it “…undercounts and misrepresents the number and loyalty of minority radio listeners.” The FCC, operating in the wishes of the group, which includes President Obama, has opened an inquiry into the use of the PPM.

The PPM system uses signals encoded into a radio signal and played back through a radio’s speakers to record to what stations a particular panelist is exposed on a portable device, which then transmits via landline the results. It currently complements the traditional diary system in select markets, including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, with implementation in Milwaukee/Racine scheduled for spring 2010. Its main advantage over the diary system is that it is harder to lie about how long one actually listens to a program. Its main disadvantage is that it must be carried around, though its cell-phone size makes it easier.

In early results, talk radio, particularily conservative talk radio, has “gained” a lot of listenership compared to the diary system, while urban radio has “lost” a lot. This just won’t do for the usual suspects.

RIP useful, roomy vehicles

by @ 6:00. Filed under Envirowhackos, Politics - National.

(H/T – Sister Toldjah)

The Detroit News reports that, under a proposal by the Obama administration to be unveiled later today, not only will the CAFE standards increase above the 2020 mandate 4 years early, but that the proposed California emission standards will become the new nationwide standards. Specifically with regard to the CAFE standards, passenger cars (which will, as of 2011, include most 2WD SUVs) will be required to get 39 mpg by 2016 (up from 27.5 mpg this year), light trucks will be required to get 30 mpg by 2016 (up from 23.1 mpg this year), and the combined fleet will be required to hit 35.5 mpg by 2016.

Before I continue, I need to explain CAFE a bit, and deliver a good news-bad news combo. First, the good news is it is not based on the EPA estimates you see on the sticker. Rather, it is a laboratory number using testing methods set in the 1970s.

In fact, there is not a “CAFE mileage” number available from either the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (the entity that lords over the CAFE numbers) or the EPA. However, based on published reports that the CAFE mileage is roughly 30% higher than the EPA numbers, the unadjusted combined mileage in the datasets from the EPA appear to be close enough to the CAFE numbers for my purposes.

The bad news is that the average uses the harmonic mean based on the CAFE mileage and the number of each type of vehicle produced. That is because what is actually being measured is the number of gallons being burned over a set distance.

So, what 2009 models would cut it in a 2016 world? That’s the ugly news. Here are the 34 passenger car models (which, effective 2011, will include most 2WD SUVs/CUVs) and 12 light-truck models that will meet the standards:

  • Toyota Prius
  • Honda Civic – hybrid, 1.8L manual, and 1.8L gas automatic only
  • Nissan Altima – hybrid only
  • Toyota Camry – hybrid only
  • Volkswagen Jetta – TDI manual and TDI 6-speed automatic only
  • Volkswagen Jetta Sportwagen – TDI 6-speed manual and TDI 6-speed automatic only
  • Ford Escape – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
  • Mazda Tribute (corporate twin to the Escape) – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
  • Mercury Mariner (corporate twin to the Escape) – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
  • Mini Cooper – naturally-aspirated manual only
  • Mini Cooper Clubman – naturally-aspirated manual only
  • Toyota Yaris – both manual and automatic
  • Toyota Corolla – 1.8L manual and 1.8L automatic only
  • Honda Fit – all three engine/transmission combinations
  • Kia Rio – both manual and automatic
  • Hyundai Accent – manual only
  • Chevrolet Aveo – manual only
  • Pontiac G3 (corporate twin to the Aveo) – manual only
  • Chevrolet Aveo 5 – manual only
  • Pontiac G3 5 (corporate twin to the Aveo 5) – manual only
  • Chevrolet Cobalt – XFE only
  • Pontiac G5 (corporate twin to the Cobalt) – base manual, XFE, and GT manual only
  • Scion XD – manual only
  • Toyota Highlander – Hybrid 4WD only (light truck)
  • Jeep Compass – 4WD manual only (light truck)
  • Jeep Patriot – 4WD manual only (light truck)
  • Mazda 5 – both manual (light truck) and automatic (light truck)
  • Toyota RAV4 – 2.5L 4WD only (light truck)
  • Nissan Rogue – AWD only (light truck)
  • Ford Ranger – 2.3L 2WD manual only (light truck)
  • Mazda B2300 (corporate twin to the Ranger) – 2.3L 2WD manual only (light truck)

I remember Car and Driver doing a 40-mpg CAFE special way back when. I wonder if they’re ready to revisit that.

Revisions/extensions (6:50 am 5/18/2009) – I did the post last night, so there were a few typos. Also, there’s a couple of additional thoughts.

If one takes out the different engine/transmission combinations (which I did above) and the corporate twin duplicates, there are 25 distinct models. That leaves three midsized cars (the Prius, Altima and Camry), five different compact cars (Jetta, Corolla, Aveo/G3, Rio and Accent), two small station wagons (Jetta Sportwagen and Fit, though the latter probably fits better into the subcompact category), six different subcompact cars (Civic, Yaris, Clubman, Aveo 5/G3 5, Cobalt/G5, and XD), a minicompact (Mini), five SUVs (Escape/Tribute/Mariner in both 2WD and 4WD form, Highlander 4WD, Compass 4WD, Patriot 4WD, RAV4 4WD and Rogue AWD, with all but the Highlander compactl-to-micro-sized), one micro-minivan (Mazda 5), and one compact pickup (Ranger/B2300). That also leaves only 15 automatics in the bunch.

All I can say is I’m glad I’m single and know how to drive a stick.

R&E part 2 (8:41 am 5/19/2009) – Welcome readers of The Other McCain.

R&E part 3 (11:00 am 5/19/2009) – Truesoldier asked a very good question over at Michelle Malkin’s post on this:

Ok that is on new vehicles, but what about the cost of retrofitting old vehicles to meet the “California” emission standards? I know when I used to live in California back in the 90’s if you brought a car from out of state you had to pay a fee , I believe it was around $500, if your car did not meet California’s emmision standards to get your car retrofitted. So is there going to be forced retrofit to meet the testing standards?

I believe that requirement is to retrofit out-of-state cars to the level of emissions required of that model year in California, not to retrofit older cars to current standards. Still, I wouldn’t put it past Obama’s EPA to pull that stunt to get the current crop of cars off the road.

Housekeeping item – I will be liveblogging the self-congratulatoin up above, so if you came directly to this post, please click the big “No Runny Eggs” at the top of the blog to get there.

May 18, 2009

Roll bloat – let there be war edition

by @ 11:48. Filed under Politics - National, The Blog.

Robert Stacy McCain (or as Dad29 calls him, “The Winning McCain”) started up a new place in the wake of the NRSC decision to repeat its mistakes of 2004, 2006 and last month by endorsing Charlie Crist literally 15 minutes after he announced he was going to challenge Marco Rubio for the open 2010 Florida Senate Republican primary. The title of Not One Red Cent ought to tell it all.

May 15, 2009

Video of the day – National Debt Road Trip

by @ 16:15. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – Ace)

Just. Damn.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc[/youtube]

May 13, 2009

Federal financial meltdown – dead ahead

by @ 14:40. Filed under Politics - National, Social Security crater.

The Social Security trustees released their annual statement of the states of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds yesterday, and things are very ugly. From the “Intermediate Case”:

– The Disability Insurance (DI) portion of Social Security, which has cost more to run than its dedicated tax revenue source provides (i.e. it’s running in the red) since 2005, will have its “trust fund” exhausted in 2020.
– The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) portion of Social Security will begin to run in the red in 2017.
– The combined Old-Age and Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) “trust fund” will begin to run in the red in 2016, with “fund” exhaustion in 2037.
– The Hospital Insurance (HI) portion of Medicare, which began to run in the red last year, will exhaust its “trust fund” in 2017.
– The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) portion of Medicare, which funds both outpatient care (Part B) and the prescription drug benefit (Part D), only avoids “trust fund” exhaustion because automatic increases from both the enrollees and the general fund. Even here, there is a big warning – because most of the enrollees are protected from the bulk (and for at least this year, any) increase in Part B fees under a “hold-harmless” provision, those not covered by the provision (high-income, new enrollees, and the states through Medicaid) will be facing an extraordinary increase in fees.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI – and my Congressman) notes that the 75-year unfunded liability in the programs increased from $40 trillion last year to $43 trillion this year. That $3 trillion increase is rather close to the proposed 2010 budget. He also notes that, despite these serious problems, the Obama administration wants to expand entitlement spending like the programs listed above by $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.

Ed Morrissey connects the dots and finds, that among other things, credit default insurance on US Treasury debt briefly cost more than credit default insurance on McDonald’s debt. Also, there was a nearly-failed 30-year T-bond auction last week, rescued only after the Treasury raised the interest rate it will pay on the bonds.

But wait, it gets worse. Chuck Blahous read the stochastic projections stuck in one of the appendices of the OASDI report. Before I continue with the bad news, allow me to briefly explain what the stochastic projection is, and how it’s different from the “deterministic” model that the Intermediate Case and the other two main cases the majority of the report uses. The “deterministic” model uses a carefully-selected assumption of various variables, which for the most part, do not change once the variables reach the ultimate conclusion. The stochastic model creates an equation that allows the variables to fluctuate randomly within parameters set by historical records. Specifically in this case, the equations were written so that, without the random fluctuations, the “Intermediate Case” numbers would be the result.

The math geniuses then ran the numbers with the combined OASDI “trust fund” 5,000 times to come up with a spread of projections, and then came up with a probability curve based on the results. The median (50th percentile) projections were that Social Security would first run in the red in 2014 (2 years earlier than the “Intermediate Case”), and the “trust fund” would first be exhausted in 2036 (1 year earlier than the “Intermediate Case”; note that not all the simulations predict a permanent exhaustion of assets the first year of exhaustion).

What is more interesting is what the stochastic model predicts with 80% confidence (between the 10th percentile and the 90th percentile) and with 95% confidence (between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile). With 80% confidence, the stochastic model predicts that Social Security would first run in the red sometime between 2010 (that’s next year, folks) and 2017 (a mere year after the “Intermediate Case”), with first-year exhaustion sometime between 2032 and 2043. With 90% confidence, it predicts that Social Security will begin to run in the red sometime between 2009 (that’s this year, folks) and 2019, with first-year exhaustion sometime between 2030 and 2052.

How likely is it that Social Security would go into the red this year? Chuck notes that the 2009 “cash surplus” projection (total revenues minus both total expenses and “net interest”, which really is an unfunded liability and not an asset) is down from $87 billion this time last year to $19 billion (actually, $18.8 billion) this year under the “Intermediate Case” projection. It also is down from a “cash surplus” of $73.7 billion last year.

Meanwhile, Ed noted the beginnings of something interesting regarding the OASDI “trust fund” – it ran a negative balance in February. I ran with that, and found that 4 of the last 8 months (August 2008-March 2009) were officially negative: August 2008, October 2008, November 2008, and February 2009. Toss out the “net interest” that propped up December, and it’s up to 5 of the last 8 months.

Because revenues (as well as the misapplied “net interest”) do not come in nearly as regularily as expenditures go out, it is a bit of a reach to say that Social Security is officially in the red. After taking out the “net interest”, the last 8 months saw a “cash surplus” of $14.7 billion, and the last 12 months saw one of $52.2 billion. That is compared to an 8-month “cash surplus” of $38.0 billion between August 2007 and March 2008, and a 12-month “cash surplus” of $76.9 billion (corrected the decimal) between April 2007 and March 2008.

I might not bet on Social Security running red for a 12-month period this year, but I’ll take the “early” in just about any pool.

May 12, 2009

Drill here, drill now Tuesdays – 5/12/2009 (and a new NRE poll)

by @ 13:17. Tags:
Filed under Energy, NRE Polls, Politics - National.

The original concept started with Jessi Olson back when oil was at $140/barrel and gasoline was over $4/gallon

Even though the economy shows very few signs of restarting, the price of oil is back up over $60/barrel after hitting a low of nearly $35/barrel, and gasoline in Milwaukee is already tickling $2.60/gallon after a couple months of being well below $2/gallon. Somehow, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in that time frame, the Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration have restored every last roadblock to oil exploration and exploitation that resulted in the record prices last summer.

With that in mind, I’ve started up a new poll. It’s rather simple – when will gas prices in Milwaukee lead with a “1” again?

When will the number 1 once again lead the price of regular unleaded gasoline in Milwaukee?

Up to 1 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • When it climbs above $9.99/gallon. (75%, 66 Vote(s))
  • When it dips below $2.00/gallon. (25%, 22 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 88

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May 8, 2009

Welcome to UAW Motors

by @ 14:27. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Bloomberg is reporting that the dissident senior creditors of Chrysler have caved and will not be fighting for anything more than the 29% that the Obama administration initially offered them. The quote of the day is from Tom Lauria, which was representing the group, “After a great deal of soul-searching and, quite frankly, agony, they concluded they just don’t have critical mass to withstand the enormous pressure and machinery of the U.S. government.”

In fact, since the purchase price from Fiat is $2 billion, and the various bankruptcy fees will come out of that, they’re taking an even bigger haircut.

The Chicago Way has come to Wall Street.

8.9% unemployment – bad and worse news

by @ 10:54. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

(H/Ts – JammieWearingFool, who has the train-wreck pic of the day, and Ed Morrissey)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment continued to decline in April, this time by 539,000, and that the unemployment rate went up to 8.9%. Both JWF and Ed noted that actually masked couple of troubling items:

– Take out the 72,000-job increase in government payrolls and the drop is actually 611,000.
– Most of that 72,000-job government increase was due to temporary Census jobs.

JWF caught a very telling paragraph in the New York Times’ article:

A year ago, the loss of more than half a million jobs in a single month would have seemed like a disaster for the economy. On Friday, experts were calling it an improvement.

JWF points out that the change in outlook is due to the change of parties in the Oval Office. The only surprising thing is the Times is arrogant enough to all-but-admit that.

But wait, it gets worse. Jim Geraghty notes that the rise in the unemployment rate to 8.9%, at least this early into 2009, wasn’t exactly envisioned by the Treasury Department when they ran their “stress tests” of the top 19 financial institutions. Quoting a CNN story noting this little problem – “To take one example, the adverse scenario envisions the U.S. jobless rate gradually rising from 6.9% at the end of 2008 to 8.9% at the end of 2009.”

I hope you weren’t planning on buying Bank of America stock. Of course, you’ll probably be owning it shortly whether you wanted to or not.

Revisions/extensions (11:05 am 5/8/2009) – For even more depressing news, we go back to Jim from yesterday:

Number of people collecting unemployment benefits the week the stimulus was signed into law: 5.11 million.

Number of people collecting unemployment benefits as of May 2: 6.35 million.

May 7, 2009

How much down the UAW Motors black hole?

by @ 18:51. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Brian)

I know I’m playing catch-up because I still have essentially no energy (no, it’s not the swine flu, or any other flu; it’s the start of Allergy Season), but CNN reported yesterday that the $4 billion bridge loan from TARP, the $300 million fee on that loan, and the $3.2 billion in bankruptcy financing provided to Chrysler UAW Motors will not be paid back, though the Treasury might be getting a portion of the liquidation of Chrysler Financial. Let’s see – that’s $7.5 billion for 8% of UAW Motors/”New Chrysler”. Brilliant!

The CNN story does note that the $4.7 billion in taxpayer funds that will go to “New Chrysler” upon it emerging from bankruptcy, as well as an additional $1.5 billion likely to be loaned to it in mid-2010, will be of the secured credit variety, and will be expected to be paid back.

One more item to consider – the 55% stake the UAW would hold in “New Chrysler” is expected to be turned into cash sooner rather than later. That is supposedly valued at $4.2 billion, with apparently no shareholder voting rights beyond a single seat on the board of directors. One of the many bankruptcy documents states that Fiat will be able to get 40% of that. Somehow, I doubt they’ll pay $1.68 billion (40% of $4.2 billion) for that non-voting share, or any entity other than your federal government will come up with the $2.52 billion for the other 60% (or that plus the shortfall between Fiat’s offer and the $1.68 billion) to make the UAW whole.

As a side note; none of the bankruptcy filings appear to address who initially holds the 15% interest in “New Chrysler” that Fiat can “earn” by meeting three metrics (in 5-percent chunks): introducing a 40-mpg Chrysler made in the US, creating a “fuel-efficient” engine family made in the US, and opening up Fiat’s worldwide distribution network to the Chrysler brand. They do note, however, that separate of the Fiat-UAW VEBA buyout agreement mentioned above, Fiat can increase its total stake in “New Chrysler” to 51%, apparently by an issuance of addtional shares.

Revisons/extensions (8:04 pm 5/7/2009) – (H/T – Jim Geraghty) ProPublica reminds us that $1.5 billion went down the black hole known as Chrysler Finance, which will not be part of “New Chrysler”. That puts the grand total between $9 billion and $9.2 billion (depending on whose numbers for what got sent down the black hole so far one believes).

One bit of a positive – I do expect a rather high dividend to be paid on the government/UAW shares, even higher than what is normally paid on non-voting shares. Still, I expect a very poor rate of return on that $9 billion wasted on Chrysler, even if they don’t ultimately go Tango Uniform.

Obama’s idea of significant spending cuts

by @ 12:24. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – Michelle Malkin)

Phillip Klein at The American Spectator found what is at first blush an actual, meaningful cut in the 2010 budget that is “slashed” from $3,400,000,000,000 to $3,383,000,000,000 (or from a roughly-10% increase from 2009’s non-bailout spending to a roughly-10% increase from 2009’s non-bailout spending) – a cut of $4,000,000 (9%) in the Labor Department’s Office of Labor-Management Standards from $45,000,000 to $41,000,000.

I’m shocked, SHOCKED that the unions would suddenly find it a lot easier to skim money now that they have their people running things. Skimming union dues is something that former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao took very seriously to the tune of 929 convictions of corrupt union bosses and $93 million returned to union members.

Do fret; that $4 million won’t be going back to the taxpayers, or even those that buy US Treasury bonds and bills. Current Labor Secretary Hilda Solis has a “better” use of that $4 million – the Labor Department’s Wage and Hour Division, Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Phillip helpfully notes that all of those entities go after “big business” and not “big labor”.

As Charlie Sykes is fond of saying, elections do have consequences.

May 4, 2009

Specter VERY offficially a ‘Rat

by @ 9:39. Filed under Health, Politics - National.

Arlen “Scottish Law” Specter (RINO D-PA) completed his initiation into the party of the ass by blaming his mid-life party for the death of Jack Kemp.

News flash for Scottish Law – your old/new party wants to drive the entities responsible for the vast majority of medical advances the last 50 years, the privately-owned drug companies, out of business.

Revisions/extensions (11:29 am 5/4/2009) – Ed Morrissey did some research, and found that, after inflation, government spending on what the Heritage Foundation and the Office of Management and Budget terms health research and regulation increased 46% between 2001 and 2006. That is far larger than the total 23% post-inflation increase in either total government spending or the 36% post-inflation increase in “discretionary” government spending.

Quote of the day

by @ 8:35. Filed under Politics - National.

From Robert Stacy McCain – “Lie down with Bushes, wake up with Democrats.”

Do read the whole thing, including what he says about Jeb’s comments about abandoning the Reagan principles. News flash to Jeb – I believe the GOP tried that the last 2 election cycles, with predictable results.

What? Don’t They Have “Saved” Jobs?

by @ 5:20. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

First, sorry I’ve left Steve hung out to dry for the past few weeks.  I don’t want to go into it right now but I’ve been working on a “special project” here in MN for the past few weeks and just haven’t had the time to spend on the blog end.  More on the special project later.

Now, on to our regularly scheduled program.

To my surprise, President Obama has managed to keep his net favorable ratings above the zero level into May.  With the way things were going early in April, I would have bet that he would have dipped below zero by now.  However, not all is good news in the Obama camp.

First, Rasmussen continues to show an eroding net positive rating for the President.  For the past two weeks the net positive, according to Rasmussen Reports, has been bouncing around in the low single digits.  Saturday, the net positive had dropped to just +1.  While the President’s personal popularity remains high there are continuing indications that support for his policies are not.  Which brings me to…

Second, also according to Rasmussen Reports, one of the bluest states around, New Jersey, appears to have an incumbent Democrat Governor who is in real reelection trouble.  Depending upon the poll, current Governor, John Corzine is down by as much 15 points to a potential Republican challenger.  The main issues in the campaign seem all related to the economy in New Jersey.  In fact, Rasmussen makes the statement:

this race could come down to a referendum on the first year of the Obama administration. The economy clearly has hit New Jersey as hard as any other state, with many New York City commuters across the Hudson River being decimated by the financial mess on Wall Street.

I have to say I’m surprised that any Democrat is feeling pressure as a result of Obama’s economic policies.  After all, just last week, President Obama, in his most recent preemption of prime time television in which he answers questions that have as much relevance to the country’s challenges as Simon Cowell does to men’s fashion trends, told us that his economic plans were working.  In fact, he had already identified 150,000 jobs that had been saved or created since the stimulus bill was passed. 

The stimulus bill was signed February 18th, just 10 weeks ago.  With 150,000 jobs already saved or created, that’s 15,000 per week.  At that clip, we’ll see nearly 500,000 more created or saved this year and another 650,000 created or saved prior to next year’s election for a total.  With a total of 1.3 million jobs saved or created by next year’s election, it’s hard to imagine any incumbent being concerned about the President’s economic policy.  1.3 million is a lot of jobs is a lot of jobs!  A lot of jobs; if any of them really exist.  Maybe Corzine should start worrying!

May 1, 2009

Humor post of the day

by @ 11:43. Filed under Politics - National.

Harvey over at IMAO runs through the Chapter 7 liquidation of the United States. A quick sample to entice you to go there:

“Although the other 52% of the country DID send in their 1040’s,” noted Obama, “it was all ‘tax-credit’ this, and ‘exemption’ that, and ‘I’m old! Gimme money!’. Cost us billions in refunds, which only made the situation worse.”

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a speed run to La Crosse to make, and some rumblings about Tommy Thompson coming back to take his office to run down.

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