No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics' Category

December 23, 2010

Budget Chop – Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

During his 2010 victory lap yesterday, President Obama laid out his priority for 2011:

Asked about the often-used car in the ditch analogy, Obama said that the “car [the economy in the analogy] is on level ground.” He spoke about a new direction for the government’s economic focus: “We now have to pivot and focus on jobs and growth,” and education, innovation, and R & D.

While Obama’s lips may be saying “yes, yes,” his double crossed fingers are saying, “no, no!”

Gulf oil drilling jobs continue to be decimated as Obama via the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, works to interfere with, delay or halt altogether, permits for drilling. Most people are aware that Obama has denied an expansion of drilling areas and has delayed permits for new deep water rigs. What folks aren’t aware of is that even in areas where drilling is allowed, even in shallow water, the Bureau has implemented a plan that some would interpret as down right hostile towards all drilling efforts.

While you might think the Bureau is taking time advancing permits to ensure that safety comes first, they’re not. They are doing mostly what bureaucracies do, create process for no end result benefit:

Yet regulators have tightened processes so much that permit applications are being returned six and seven times for more information, says Randall Stilley, Seahawk’s chief exec­utive. One operator con­fided its last rejection was because the application contained two font sizes, he said.

(emphasis mine)

I’m a big believer in pay for performance i.e. if you perform well, you get paid more. I think we should use this type of approach to government agencies. Going forward, I would propose that Congress cut the budget for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. After all, how many people should it take to just say “no” to every inquiry of permitting for an ocean drilling rig?

December 20, 2010

The Budget Chop

Reports are circulating that Republicans and someone on the Democrat side (who is in charge there anymore?) have agreed to a clean continuing resolution bill that will extend the current budget levels into sometime in the first quarter of 2011.  All in all, that’s probably good news.  I don’t trust the current set of Republicans to actually have a spine and argue with any Democrats over budget levels.  I certainly don’t have any hope that the current bunch could actually cut the budget.  I lay all of my hopes on the incoming freshman class.  I hope I’m not disappointed.

However, I don’t think it’s fair to toss these freshmen to the wolves.  

As part or our ongoing public service efforts to provide clear, conservative thinking, we here at NRE have decided to start providing crib notes for the freshmen class on where, what and how to cut the federal budget.  This post is the first in the series.

Janet Napolitano announced today that the Department of Homeland Security, along with it being ever vigilant in finding new ways to amuse terrorists and piss off non Muslim air travelers, is taking on a new task.  DHS is making contingency plans in the event that climate change impacts domestic security.  Under the banner of “evironmental justice,” Napolitano has DHS making plans of what to do if oceans rise, glaciers melt or some change in weather occurs. 

As if it wasn’t bad enough that Napolitano wasted DHS time on this nonsense, she also included other executive staff. White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Nancy Sutley, EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson, Attorney General Eric Holder, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius were all included as speakers for the event.

Hey Freshmen, if Napolitano has enough people with enough time to worry about such things as “evironmental justice,” regardless of what the real focus is, she has too many people with too much time in her budget! DHS should be the first agency to experience significant budget cuts!

As I said, we’ll be pointing out budget chop items as we find them. My plan is to get a neato graphic that can be added to highlight the budget chop posts. I don’t have it yet. In the meantime, let’s see if this sets the mood:

December 16, 2010

Thursday Historical Read – Michelle Malkin’s “Boston Tea Party: 237th anniversary”

by @ 10:06. Tags:
Filed under History, Politics - National.

237 years ago today, a bunch of soon-to-be-ex-colonists protested the Tea Act by dumping a bunch of tea into Boston Harbor. Michelle Malkin takes a look back, and brings it into the present…

On December 16, 1773, the taxpayers of Boston had had enough.

The Boston Tea Party Ship & Museum website recounts the story:

On the cold evening of December 16, 1773, a large band of patriots, disguised as Mohawk Indians, burst from the South Meeting House with the spirit of freedom burning in their eyes. The patriots headed towards Griffin’s Wharf and the three ships. Quickly, quietly, and in an orderly manner, the Sons of Liberty boarded each of the tea ships. Once on board, the patriots went to work striking the chests with axes and hatchets. Thousands of spectators watched in silence. Only the sounds of ax blades splitting wood rang out from Boston Harbor. Once the crates were open, the patriots dumped the tea into the sea.

The bipartisan Party-In-Government, complete with Scott Brown (who wouldn’t be in the Senate if it weren’t for the Tea Party Movement), is doubling tripling down on stupid. Guess it’s time to increase the skeer on Congress, even as the foes of liberty increase their violence against us…

Make sure to commemorate the anniversary by picking up the phone and making yourselves heard in Washington as the tax-and-looters carry on.

Capitol switchboard: 202-224-3121. If you don’t, no one will.

DOWN GOES PALIN!

by @ 7:36. Filed under 2012 Presidential Contest.

Over the course of the past week, Erick Erickson has been running a tournament-style poll for who the RedState faithful want to see as the 2012 GOP Presidential nominee. Yesterday saw the final round end, and, believe it or not, Sarah Palin did not finish first. Allow me to recap the brackets before I tell you who knocked off Palin (which is why I bit.ly’ed the link; it would otherwise have told you who won the poll):

Round 1
– Herman Cain beat Donald Trump in The Businessmen matchup
– David Petraeus beat Jeb Bush in The Wild Cards matchup
– John Bolton beat John Thune in The Johns matchup
– Mike Pence beat Mike Huckabee in The Mikes matchup
– Tim Pawlenty beat Mitt Romney in The Northern Governors matchup
– Haley Barbour beat Rick Perry in The Southern Governors matchup
– Sarah Palin beat Mitch Daniels in The Other Governors matchup
– Rick Santorum beat Newt Gingrich in The Former Politicos matchup

Round 2
– Herman Cain beat David Petraeus in the Business v. Wild Card matchup
– Mike Pence beat John Bolton in the John v. Mike matchup
– Haley Barbour beat Tim Pawlenty in the North v. South matchup
– Sarah Palin beat Rick Santorum in the Other v. Former matchup

Semi-finals
– Herman Cain beat Mike Pence
– Sarah Palin beat Haley Barbour

And now, the final – Herman Cain knocked off Sarah Palin, 8,900-8,100. I am surprised, even though I have met Cain and was flat-out impressed by him, much like the rest of blog row at the 2010 Defending the American Dream Summit. There are that Cain’s entry into the race will happen on Friday; he already snagged Mark Block away from Americans for Prosperity’s Wisconsin chapter after Block turned it from a 300-member group in 2007 into a 90,000+-member group now.

December 15, 2010

Sprung convict deciding vote on 16 of 17 state labor contracts – UPDATE – Freshly-ex Senate Majority Leader a surprise roadblock – UPDATE – Not dead yet? – FINAL UPDATE – It’s dead, Jim

by @ 21:27. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Mere hours after being sprung from the Chippewa County jail where he was and will continue to be serving a 60-day Huber sentence after being convicted on his fourth DUI, soon-to-be-ex Assemblyman Jeff Wood (“I” who caucuses with the Democrats) became the 48th and deciding vote on 16 of the 17 state labor contracts soon-to-be-ex governor Jim Doyle and his fellow Democrats, including the soon-to-be-ex-members/leaders of both houses of the Legislature, are rushing through to tie the hands of the incoming Republicans.

The only contract that passed by more than the “margin of Wood” (i.e., a 49-46 margin instead of a 48-47 one the other 16 contracts were passed by) was one with the SEIU for independent home-care workers for FY2012-FY2013 (AB995 on your scoresheet). “Interestingly”, that contract, the only one that is for the period beyond June 30, 2011, is expected to cost the state an additional $622,400 per year beyond what was budgeted for FY2010-FY2011 (so much for “no pay increases” in this basket of dead-duck contracts).

As I type this, the Senate deadlocked on the first of the contracts, with soon-to-be-ex Senator/Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker providing the deadlocking vote. According to WisPolitics’ Quorom Call, Decker said that the voters “want someone else to make these decisions.” Joining Decker in opposition were the 14 present Republicans (Luther Olsen is in California and refused to cut short a family vacation) and soon-to-be-ex-Senator Jeff Plale. Of course, Decker also was likely the deciding vote to bring the Senate into this extraordinary session, as the Democrats hold a 3-2 margin in the Senate Organization Committee

Revisions/extensions (9:48 pm 12/15/2010) – The twin ex-es Decker is facing became “un-twinned” as his fellow Dems threw him under the bus in favor of assistant leader Dave Hansen. It didn’t have the intended effect as Decker continues to vote against the rammed-through contracts. They’re up through the 11th contract now, and all 11 have gone down by identical 16-16 votes.

R&E part 2 (10:00 pm 12/15/2010) – And all 17 contracts went down by identical 16-16 votes. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!

R&E part 3 (1:45 am 12/16/2010) – WisPolitics’ Quorum Call is reporting that the freshly-minted temporary Senate Dem leader, Dave Hansen and Senate President Fred Risser are planning on bringing the Senate back in session at 10 am today because, since it was a tie vote, anybody can call for a reconsideration. Meanwhile, the person who will be the Senate Dem leader in the next Legislature, Mark Miller, told Republican leader Scott Fitzgerald that the Senate wouldn’t be on the floor Thursday. How much do you want to bet that Risser and company are trying to get a second Republican (or Plale or Decker) to disappear from Madison?

R&E part 4 (10:43 am 12/16/2010) – The message on the Senate InSession site now reads, “THE WISCONSIN STATE SENATE STANDS ADJOURNED PURSUANT TO SENATE JOINT RESOLUTION 1”. It’s over! To celebrate, allow me to break out the best part of the original Star Trek…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJQwHwP0ojI[/youtube]

December 14, 2010

Tuesday Hot Read – Pamela Gorman’s “The Dream Act- Unsafe for Children”

by @ 11:51. Filed under Immigration, Politics - National.

(H/T – Brian Fojtik)

Pamela Gorman found a rather disturbing loophole in the DREAM Bill (unless it becomes law, it’s not an Act, except in stupidity):

The bill has a section that specifically allows the offspring of illegal aliens to opt out of the military and education requirements for citizenship. And, if you actually read it, you would see that the opt out requires little more than a letter stating that fulfilling the requirements of the law would present a “hardship.” Because the bill offers no definition of what is means by “hardship,” it is virtually impossible for a court to later have clear direction in determining what constitutes a life situation that prevents the young person from properly meeting the requirements of the law. Additionally, it could be determined on a subjective case-by-case (read: politically motivated) basis by the government agency employee who receives the letter of excuse.

Yep; you read that right – pure, no-committment-required amnesty.

December 13, 2010

“Take him to Detroit.”

by @ 16:48. Filed under Politics.

(H/T – Ace)

It must be “Kentucky Fried Movie” month. The Wall Street Journal reported on a plan by Detroit mayor Dave Bing (Democrat) to strip at least 20% of Detroit of basic services such as road repair, street lights, garbage pickup and police patrols. Could it really be worse than this Steven Crowder PJTV classic?…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hhJ_49leBw[/youtube]

Meanwhile, we’ll be paying for 45% of the interest on $100 million in bonds just floated by Detroit for a new police/fire headquarters. That, and a whole lot more on the tragedy of errors that is Detroit, is courtesy Mike Shedlock, whose piece I recommend reading. How long before this little bit from “Kentucky Fried Movie” won’t be hyperbole?…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVDDYQlmq0w[/youtube]

December 12, 2010

Drip, Drip, Drip

by @ 14:52. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

It’s been a week since President Obama announced that he had a “deal” with Republicans to get the current tax rates extended.  At that time, the “deal” included an extension of all current tax rates for an extension of unemployment insurance and an increase (yes, an increase as the current rate is ZERO) in estate (death) taxes.  For a reason yet mystifying, the “Republican Leadership,” and I can only assume that means Boehner and McConnell, agreed to this “deal.”  They agreed even though, in their first official action, it meant that they would clearly put a “we don’t care what you say,” sign out for all grass roots activists to see.

Since last week, Obama has been looking for ways to get Democrats to sign on to the extension bill.  While Joe “This is a big F%$&ing deal,” Biden told the Democrat caucus that there would be no room for change, the Democrat caucus has been doing just that.

The first drip was the inclusion of an extension of ethanol credits for two years.  Besides the fact that even Al Gore recognizes that ethanol is bogus green science, has anyone noticed how numerous food items are either increasing in cost or being reduced in size resulting in increased costs per ounce?  Yeah, look at the items increasing.  The majority can be traced back to corn either as an ingredient, a sweetener or a food source for the product.  Continuing to extend the ethanol credits is not only bad science, it is having the unintended consequence of pushing inflation into our food supply.

The second drip was the extension of credits for “green” cars, “green” transit, “green” diesel and “green” appliances.  Suffice to say that the only thing “green” about any of these items is the money that is being shoveled into black holes that don’t return a dime in benefit!

Additional provisions have been rumored to be considered as a way to improve Democrat’s chances of supporting the bill.  You can bet that none of them would move the bill to a more fiscally responsible bill.

One drip, two drips, heck, even three drips aren’t usually enough to cause any real damage.  However, if you’re already water logged, even one drip can do you in.  The Federal budget is clearly water logged.  Any drips, even the ones already “agreed” to, are too much.  The Republican leadership can still pull back and demand a straight up or down vote on extending the tax rates.  If they don’t, we’ll all be left wondering which drip it will be that will cause the US economy to do this:

December 11, 2010

Weekend Hot Read – Dave Thompson’s “We Had an Election . . . Remember?”

by @ 20:23. Filed under Politics - National.

Incoming Minnesota State Senator (and previous candidate for Minnesota GOP chair) Dave Thompson unloaded on Le Grande Compromise on his campaign blog today:

On November 2nd, the voters sent a clear message: stop the spending already. Less than six weeks after the election, the Congressional Republican leadership has gone right back to the old playbook. They are “compromising” and giving in on bad policies when they don’t need to do so.

Extending unemployment benefits is a terrible idea. Let’s see… we really want people to go to work… so I think we’ll continue to pay them not to work. Brilliant! And of course the unemployment benefit extension will add over $56 billion to the national debt. But never mind. Concern about the national debt was for last week’s news cycle.

We all understand the need for compromise. Otto von Bismarck said, “Politics is the art of the possible.” However, the American people are troubled when politicians make unnecessary concessions on important issues. Every reasonable analyst agrees that we should not raise taxes….

Democrats supposedly haven’t grasped the message sent last November. Seems to me the Republicans are equally unaware.

There is a reason why 63% of the voters in Minnesota’s 36th Senate District sent Thompson to St. Paul – he gets it.

Politics of Envy and Greed

by @ 14:45. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

There really is no editorial required on these.  Simply listen to the statements of one admitted socialist and one member of the Democratic Socialists of America.  It’s not hard to understand that their real complaint about “tax cuts” is that no one’s money is their own.  Their belief is that all money, regardless of how it was gained, is the government’s to use as it sees fit.

See Bernie Sanders Here.

Keith Ellison

To both of them I say, “Bring it on!” I don’t like this deal either. Let’s let the tax rates increase and see what the American people have to say about it…..shall we?

Big Jim Slade takes over for impotent pose…er, President

by @ 8:52. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – JammieWearingFool)

The New York Post’s Charles Hurt dug out the apt reference from “Kentucky Fried Movie” after Bill Clinton took over for Barack Obama at a press conference designed to salvage Le Grande Compromise (which, in typical Washington fashion, got larded up with all sorts of pork, including a 1-year extension of corn-a-hole subsidies – H/T Michelle Malkin, to try to get recalcitrant House Democrats on board). Because it’s the weekend, I don’t have to give you the standard NSFW warning on the clip of Big Jim taking over…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQ96dy93mP0[/youtube]

Oh wait, that wasn’t Big S(l)ick. HERE’S Big S(l)ick Willie taking over (courtesy Daily Caller):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dODwyYpDmqY[/youtube]

For those of you who doubted Jay Weber when he said that Teh Won doesn’t really want to be President, watch and weep.

Stripping away the histrionics – off the rails edition

by @ 6:54. Filed under Choo-choos, Politics - Wisconsin.

When one looks past the latest whining from those deeply saddened by the death of the Lobbyist HO Train that was going to run from Milwaukee to Madison, the bottom line becomes far less than what they claim:

  • Instead of building 6 trains (2 trains for the now-dead Lobbyist HO Train, 2 trains for the Hiawatha line between Milwaukee and Chicago, and 2 trains for an Oregon line) before shutting down the production line, Talgo will build 4 trains before shutting down the production line.
  • Instead of the maintenance facility maintaining 4 trains (the now-dead Lobbyist HO Trains and the Talgo-built trains for the Hiawatha line), the maintenance facility will maintain 2 trains (the Talgo-built trains for the Hiawatha line).

December 9, 2010

Munching Popcorn 12-9-10

by @ 19:25. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

Yesterday, Joe Biden tried to explain to the Democrat caucus why The Won caved on his tax promise.  He calmed their concerns by telling them there was no abiilty to change the deal.  There is no doubt that somewhere in his explanation Biden told the caucus that “This is a big f%$*ing deal!”

Today the Whitehouse released a video of Austan Goolsby doing a version of “Obama is smarter than you for dummies.”  Austan doesn’t have to worry about a call to join SNL anytime soon:

Following this fun, the Dems had a House Caucus meeting during which at least one member could be heard saying, “F&*^ the President.” Following that, reporters could hear “just say no” being chanted within the meeting room. At the end of the meeting, the caucus cast a voice vote to reject the tax compromise that President Obama caved on negotiated.

At the end of this, the bad news is we don’t know what is happening with tax rates yet.

The good news is that I’m getting much more “heart healthy” as I chow down on bucket after bucket of high fiber popcorn….non butter of course.

Today’s word – TriANGRYlation

by @ 15:19. Filed under Politics - National.

Mary Katharine Ham explains what it means…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCcV4cddqYI[/youtube]

By the way, the House Democrat caucus voted overwhelmingly against La Grande Compromise (just as predicted).

December 7, 2010

Orville Redenbacher Never Had It So Good

by @ 20:41. Filed under Politics - National.

It’s hard to know exactly how to respond to the “compromise” reached by Obama and the Republicans on extending the current tax rates.  On the one hand, it’s a lot of fun watching the lefties lose all hope and be willing to vote to change Obama.  In some ways, I fee sorry for them.  Their looks are probably similar to the looks many of us conservatives had as Bush talked about immigration amnesty or nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court.  However, my pity doesn’t prevent me from wanting to get one of those big, refillable buckets of popcorn and watching the event.  Heck, I’ve even contemplated what conflagration grenade Boehner or McConnell could toss in so that we could watch a full meltdown!

On the other hand I think, “what a missed opportunity!”  Obama was in a no win situation.  He knew that if he didn’t get a deal done now, the new Congress would have enough votes and public support, to extend the rates, perhaps permanently.  In that case, he would have the choice of vetoing the bill and dealing with that public relations mess or signing it and putting a permanent “don’t mind me” stamp on his forehead.  For that reason, I am challenged by the Republicans agreement to extend the unemployment benefits.  It’s going to be a long two years if this is how Boehner and McConnell do political calculating.

I don’t know what the exact reason was; attempt to gain favor with Obama, concern about public relations or sheer miscalculation but the Republicans could have gotten their tax rate extension with nothing added to it.  In fact, if Obama had pressed the issue of the unemployment benefits and assuming that the Republicans weren’t willing to face the stand off for principle, they should have made a counter offer.  In exchange for the increased unemployment, Obama would immediately remove all drilling moratoriums he had put in place.  The Republicans explanation, after all of the sputtering, would be that the unemployment extension was unfunded.  Nancy Pelosi herself has been telling us for two years how we should work on a “pay-go” basis.  While the best situation would have been to cut spending in the budget so the benefits would be deficit neutral, the second best option would be to remove the moratoriums which would have multiple benefits.  First, it would actually do something to increase employment, as opposed to the nothing but talk that Obama does about the topic.  Second, if you haven’t noticed, oil and gas prices have been going up again.  Folks, we haven’t even seen the US with much more then a faint economic pulse.  If/when the economy becomes a last mile of a marathon, heart pounding rate, the demand for oil is going to push gas well past the $4 mark.  Oh, and more expensive energy means more expensive food and more expensive other things.

The Republicans could have gotten more, much more for their deal.  That said, I hear the microwave beeping.  I think my first bucket of popcorn is ready.  Who’s head would you bet will explode first?

Doing the Wave!

by @ 19:34. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

Jamie Dupree is reporting that the waivers from provisions of Placebocare continue to roll up on shore.

The Obama Administration has quietly granted even more waivers to one provision of the new federal health reform law, doubling the number in just the last three weeks to a new total of 222.

Amongst the new grantees are Waffle House and Universal Orlando.

These new grantees bring a particularly poignant irony to the debate over the merits of Placebocare.

In the case of both Waffle House and Universal Orlando, the companies were providing “mini-med” insurance policies. These policies cover medical conditions similar to how other major medical plans provide coverage. They differ from traditional plans in that they have an annual maximum that is typically much lower than a traditional plan. By providing a lower maximum payout, insurance companies are able to mitigate risk they would have on these plans. If they have less risk, it costs them less to provide the coverage. If it costs them less, they are able to charge lower premiums.

If you remember, among the various reasons we were told that Placebocare was required was that there were many, many people who didn’t have insurance and that market forces were unable to provide for these people. In the case of both Waffle House and Universal Orlando (as well as other companies like McDonald’s) they were providing insurance options for people who traditionally have few insurance options; part time workers. However, Placebocare, in its attempt to force compliance on all, mandates that insurance policies can no longer have any annual or lifetime caps on coverage. The result is that without the exemption, companies like Waffle House and Universal Orlando would no longer be able to offer their current coverage which would mean that their employees would have no coverage at all.

Oh, those mean employers! I mean, who would want a policy that has a smaller annual cap? Who wouldn’t want a cadillac plan? Young, part time workers, that’s who. Think about it. Young people are typically the healthiest amongst us. They don’t tend to get major major illnesses which are what drive the high annual or lifetime caps. However, being young and especially if they are part time workers, even a single medical issue like a broken bone, could cause them severe financial challenges. In the competitive world of labor, Waffle House, Universal Orlando, McDonalds and others saw this need and in order to obtain and maintain quality talent, found a market based solution to solve the problem. A market based solution that would no longer exist without the waiver and will no longer exist after the year waiver is up!

Hey, wait. I thought we could keep our coverage if we liked it?

Wednesday Hot Read – Nathan Gonzales’ “Russ Couldn’t Re-Create ’92 Magic”

(H/T – Kevin Binversie, whose critique is also worth reading, and not just because he was on the Ron Johnson campaign)

Where do I begin with the teaser for Nathan Gonzales’ post-mortem on Roll Call? I’ll go with the section titled The Redefinition of Russ:

“We zoned in on those two things and had the ammunition from the last two years with Obama,” said Johnson’s media consultant, Curt Anderson, Wes Anderson’s brother, who worked at the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 1992 when Feingold defeated Kasten.

Curt Anderson said the Johnson team believed Feingold’s independence was based on some “inconsequential votes.”…

But in an election in which voters were most concerned about the economy, Republicans focused on Feingold’s votes for the $787 billion economic stimulus bill, health care reform and Obama’s budget.

Democrats admit that instead of rewriting history and distorting Feingold’s record, Republicans were able to focus on what they believe he is now. By the end of the race, Feingold’s greatest strength was sapped.

It also helped us (and didn’t help the Democrats) that, much like the Republicans 4 years earlier, they refused to believe they were in serious trouble. From Kevin:

Out in DC last week, I had more than a few conversations with friends and a few web journalists (Off-the-record in those cases) who covered the race on the road with the Feingold campaign. Many of them told me they were amazed at how Democrats in Wisconsin were unwilling to accept the bad environment in front of them [Slate’s Dave Weigel personally told me out-going State Senator Pat Kreitlow (D-Chippewa Falls) told him he was going to win his race. On Election night, Kreitlow lost to Terry Moulton 54% to 46%.].

Arrogance plus liberalism kills politically.

Tuesday Hot Read – Daniel J. Mitchell’s “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”

by @ 11:49. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

The Cato Institute’s Daniel J. Mitchell pretty much summed up my initial take on Le Grande Compromise between Obama and the Republicans on tax rates and unemployment benefits:

Compared to ideal policy, the deal announced last night between congressional Republicans and President Obama is terrible.

Compared to what I expected to happen, the deal announced last night is pretty good.

Point of order – there currently is no guarantee that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, who weren’t exactly involved in the negotiations, are going to let this pass. I believe the applicable term when (I don’t believe it’s a matter of “if) this falls apart and all of the Clinton tax rates return full-force will be “poison pill”. Teh Won will bite his lower lip and whimper out, “I never tried so hard for anything as a middle-class tax cut” (if that sounds familiar, it should – that was what the last Democrat President said).

Even if this is a genuine and doable compromise, it’s essentially a punt into 2012 for everything except the reinstated death tax (at 35% with the first $3.5 million exempt for 2 years, compared to the previously-imminent (and now merely delayed until after 2012) 41%/$1 million exempt to 55%-beyond-$3 million), another 13 months of extended unemployment benefits (it’s still at the 99-week limit instead of 26 weeks), and the 1-year 16% reduction in the FICA tax (a reduction of the employee portion from 6.2% to 4.2%, in exchange for allowing the Make Work Pay tax credit). For the sake of argument, let’s look at the three:

  • The Death Tax returns – The number one killer of family businesses is back. Let me put it this way – that money was already taxed once (or in the case of unrealized capital gains, will be taxed when said gain is realized) – the government has no right to a second taxation that is at a higher marginal rate than the first taxation just because one died.
  • Extending unemployment benefits – Did the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy put you out of work? No problem – your 2011 can be as work-free as 2010 was. We’ll just borrow from the Red Chinese so you don’t have to worry about getting a job until 2012.
  • The 1-year FICA tax reduction – This is actually better than the old Subsidize Low-Paying Jobs welfare plan. If you work, you’ll get 2% more on your paycheck. So what if SocSecurity runs a cash deficit again? It was going to be in the red anyway (seriously, this has a less-than-6-month effect on the SocSecurity fund-exhaustion dates).

December 3, 2010

Who had the Milwaukee Problem?

by @ 19:42. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Some outstate pundits infamously claimed right after the primary that Scott Walker was a historically-weak candidate outstate. Now that the election has been certified by the Government Accountability Board, and the county-level results are official, let’s take another look at the tape.

Statewide, Walker took 52.25% of the 2,160,832 votes cast, while Tom Barrett took 46.48% (or a 5.77-percentage-point win). After taking Columbia County and all the counties south and east of there (Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha and Washington Counties) out of the totals, Walker’s margin among the 1,015,729 voters increased to a 55.14%-43.17% advantage (or a 11.97-point win). Even if one excludes Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties, which are at best marginally-attached to southeast Wisconsin, Walker’s outstate margin is still 54.36%-43.89% (or a 10.47-point win).

Only if one gave Barrett the Democrat strongholds of Dane and Rock County (and Walker the bare win in Columbia County) does the margin get close. Without Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties counted as “southeast Wisconsin”, Walker won by 2.87 percentage points. Counting Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties to include the entirety of the Milwaukee media market reduced the Walker win to 1.10 percentage points.

Let’s compare that to Mark Green’s performance in 2006 against Jim Doyle, who is from supposedly-equally-reviled Madison. Doyle carried the state by 7.39 percentage points, the counties except Columbia and those south and east by 5.28 points, the parts of Wisconsin outside the “core” southeast part of the state by 12.05 points, and the parts of Wisconsin outside the entire Milwaukee media market by 13.60 points.

It looks like not only didn’t Scott Walker have the “Milwaukee Problem” Tom Barrett did, but he significantly outperformed Mark Green outstate.

Was Chad Lee a “bad” candidate? – revisited

by @ 18:26. Filed under Elections, Politics - Wisconsin.

Right after the November election, UW student Todd Stevens asserted so, and I retorted using the AP’s countywide numbers. On Wednesday, the Government Accountability Board certified the results and, more-importantly, released the ward-by-ward data. For those who don’t remember, the 2nd Congressional District, which incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeated Chad Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin (with the remainder writing in somebody), covers all of Columbia, Dane and Green Counties, significant parts of Jefferson, Rock and Sauk Counties, and almost the entirety of the part of Whitewater that is in Walworth County.

Meanwhile, Republican Scott Walker (and his running mate as lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch) beat Democrat Tom Barrett (and his running mate, Tom Nelson) by a statewide 52.25%-46.48% margin, with the remainder either voting for a couple other candidates who qualified for the ballot or writing somebody in. With that background, let’s take a county-by-partial-county look at how Walker did versus how Lee did:

  • Columbia County (whole county, 21,385 votes in the gubernatorial election and 21,149 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 51.71%/Barrett 46.83%, Lee 52.93%/Baldwin 47.01%. Advantage – Lee by 1.03 percentage points.
  • Dane County (whole county, 220,273 votes in the gubernatorial election and 218,865 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 67.96%/Walker 30.98%, Baldwin 66.56%/Lee 33.38%. Advantage – Lee by 3.80 percentage points.
  • Green County (whole county, 13,187 votes in the gubernatorial election and 13,227 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 49.00%/Walker 48.46%, Baldwin 51.03%/Lee 48.92%. Advantage – Walker by 0.78 percentage points.
  • Jefferson County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 18,194 votes in the gubernatorial election, 18,005 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 54.45%/Barrett 43.98%, Lee 52.24%/Baldwin 47.66%. Advantage – Walker by 5.90 percentage points.
  • Rock County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 23,657 votes in the gubernatorial election, 23,606 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 53.07%/Walker 45.01%, Baldwin 53.18%/Lee 46.79%. Advantage – Lee by 1.68 percentage points.
  • Sauk County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 11,228 votes in the gubernatorial election, 11,262 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 51.41%/Walker 47.13%, Baldwin 51.52%/Lee 48.42%. Advantage – Lee by 1.18 percentage points.
  • Walworth County (city of Whitewater specifically, 3,377 votes in the gubernatorial election, 3,346 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 52.09%/Walker 46.14%, Baldwin 55.77%/Lee 44.11%. Advantage – Walker by 5.70 percentage points.

The bottom line:

Out of 311,301 total votes in the gubernatorial election, Barrett beat Walker by a 62.44%-36.33% margin. Meanwhile, out of 309,460 total votes in the Congressional election, Baldwin beat Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin. By my math, Lee did better than Walker by 2.50 percentage points, and I don’t hear anybody (other than the sore losers on the far left) calling Walker a “bad” candidate. I’m sorry to have to break the bad news to Stevens that the 2nd District will elect a Democrat as long as the district has roughly its current borders.

Landmines abound in the parting gift to AFSCME from Doyle

by @ 9:20. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

The MacIver Institute obtained several documents relating to the contract being negotiated by the soon-to-be-departed Doyle administration and AFSCME, which the soon-to-be-departed Democrat leaders in the Legislature want to vote on as they head out the door. The three documents released thus far, language adjustments, overtime changes, and health insurance changes, show that it is more of a extended middle finger than the “no-increase” portrayal by Doyle and the media. I’ll let the MacIver Institute summarize the effects of what’s been released thus far:

A first-blush, cursory look at these documents reveal a few things:

1) These employees maintain their lavish retirement and health benefits with only a modest increase in their share of health care costs.

2) Much of the language here appears to empower employees with greater authority regarding staffing decisions, transfers, etc. Tying the hands of the employer to determine who works where is never beneficial to the employer. As a Wisconsin taxpayer, remember, YOU are the employer.

3) Anticipating cuts and the most senior employees transferring to lower paying jobs to avoid job losses, there is a sick leave conversion that could be costly. Rather than allowing employees to convert their sick leave credits based on their hourly wage at the time of retirement, the conversion will be based on the highest base pay rate earned in state service. So if someone retires at a wage less than what they made years ago, their accrued sick leave will be converted at their highest base pay.

4) The overall costs regarding changes in transfer and layoff procedures in all these contracts is not known. This could limit the cost savings of trimming the state workforce. We hope the Joint Committee on Employment Relations will obtain answers to these questions before voting to approve the tentative agreements.

November 27, 2010

The Brothers Fitzgerald make the big time

by @ 9:13. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – Pamela Gorman via Erick Erickson)

The New York Times ran a piece on the Brothers Fitzgerald, the incoming leaders of the Senate (Scott) and Assembly (Jeff). A couple of tidbits to whet your appetite:

“A lot of people think we turn it off at home,” Representative Fitzgerald said the other day of the brothers’ propensity to talk politics and policy during daily cellphone calls, at family birthday gatherings and pretty much everywhere else they happen upon each other. “But no,” he said. “It only gets worse.”…

Yet these will hardly be simple times. Wisconsin faces a budget gap — more than $2 billion by some estimates — and a majority of voters who were clearly searching for something other than what they had. “I’m ready for it,” Senator Fitzgerald said. “If we don’t ruffle feathers this time, I think people are going to say we’re not doing what we said we would do.”

November 26, 2010

“Somebody” will profit handsomely from Government Motors

by @ 16:58. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Darleen Glick via Allahpundit)

No, it won’t be the American taxpayers that will profit from the ongoing saga that is Government Motors. The Washington Times notes that the big winner of last week’s IPO of GM will be the United Auto Workers, specifically their Retiree Medical Benefit Trust Fund (aka the VEBA that all three domestically-owned auto makers shifted their retiree health costs to). The numbers quoted in that story of $3.4 billion from the IPO and a “break-even sale” price of $36 aren’t quite accurate (they’re both high, the latter far more so), so I’ll walk you through the math:

  • Old GM had, when it went into bankruptcy, $20.56 billion in unsecured liabilities owed to the VEBA.
  • Exiting bankruptcy, Government Motors gave the VEBA:
    • 262.5 million common-stock shares
    • $6.5 billion in senior perpetual preferred stock with a 9% dividend and a 5 1/2-year restriction on buy-back by GM, worth a minimum of $9.72 billion if bought back at the earliest possible date.
    • A $2.5 billion secured note with a 9% annual interest rate and a maturation date in 2017, payable in three $1.4 billion chunks in 2013, 2015 and 2017.
  • VEBA already received $3.65 billion in cash as follows:
    • $0.73 billion in dividends on the preferred stock.
    • $2.92 billion on the stock sold (89 million shares at $32.7525/share – the underwriters took $0.2475/share in underwriting discounts and commissions).
  • Assuming GM survives through the middle of 2017 to pay off that note and buys back the preferred stock at the end of 2014 as soon as it can, it will get an additional $13.19 billion in cash from:
    • The remaining $8.99 billion in future dividends on and buy-back of the preferred stock.
    • $4.2 billion from the principal and interest on that $2.5 billion note.

Assuming the underwriters do exercise their over-allotment option to buy another 13.35 million shares at the discounted IPO price (which would get the VEBA another $437 million), that would leave $3.28 billion to come from the remaining 160.15 million shares. That means the UAW would be made whole if they net a fraction $20.48/share for their remaining holdings. Even if JP Morgan and company don’t come riding in to buy the additional shares now, the UAW will need to only net a fraction more than $21.44/share to be made whole. Everything else is pure profit, or at least a further subsidy of UAW Motors (nee Chrysler).

To put it another way, if they dumped their shares now, they would get a total of $22.12 billion in cash from Government Motors, compared to the $20.56 billion liability that Old GM had going into bankruptcy.

Meanwhile, the remaining unsecured creditors of old GM, mostly the bondholders, will be lucky to get 23 cents on the dollar once the liquidation of GM is complete and they get their pro-rated portions of the 150 million-180 million shares in Government Motors.

November 24, 2010

Wednesday Hot Read – Brian Fraley’s “The Time is Now to Reform Labor Laws Which Threaten Our State’s Future”

by @ 14:01. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Brian Fraley lays out why the decoupling of state workers and labor unions, and the decoupling of unions and employment, is vital for Wisconsin’s future:

Herein lies the problem with public employee unions: They determine the fate of their own bosses who in turn have dominion over their compensation. Public employee unions skew the labor-management equation through their political muscle and the fact that their contracts are approved by the very same politicians for whom they vote. Therefore, they have the power to perpetuate and accentuate their own wage and benefit structures at the expense of the taxpaying public.

Building painters in school districts with annual compensation packages of more than $98,000 and bus drivers making six figure salaries that translate into benefit-rich pensions are part of the driving force in the budget problems facing Wisconsin….

States without right-to-work laws permit the coerced payment of union dues. Whether you want a union or not, you are going to pay union dues, and even have those dues go to the support of candidates that you oppose, in non right-to-work states. More and more, younger workers want choice in their work environment, and they want the merit of their work to matter. By rewarding time in service over competency, unions take advantage of those just entering the workforce, they stifle employee choice, and they ignore merit for all workers through convoluted work rules and seniority systems in the workplace.

Private sector labor unions occupy a unique place in American law and society. They are the only entities, by law, that are exempted from anti-monopoly laws, that are given the power of coerced representation, and that receive millions of dollars from the Federal government in direct grants, and billions to state entities with heavy union representation that provide worker training.

The only counter balance to all of this is in those states that at least give workers a choice whether or not to support the union in their workplace with union dues from their hard earned wages. Again, this isn’t some crazy, untried concept. Nearly half of the states recognize this form of workers’ rights–and they continue to grow their economies and outperform those states that have not adopted right-to-work laws.

Domestic enemies lists are coming back, TSA edition

Richard Nixon and J. Edgar Hoover (not to mention Iosif Stalin and various other totalitarians) would be so proud of DHS head Janet Napolitano after she authored an internal DHS memo detailing how anybody who objects to the nekkid scan/crotch grab method of airline security would be put on a “domestic extremist” (DHS’s term, not mine) list. The Northeast Intelligence Network has the details, including how Teh Won fully-supports this.

I’m glad I’m not flying anytime soon, and I won’t be giving up Shoebox’s identity lest we have to reinstitute the Free Shoebox effort.

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