Some outstate pundits infamously claimed right after the primary that Scott Walker was a historically-weak candidate outstate. Now that the election has been certified by the Government Accountability Board, and the county-level results are official, let’s take another look at the tape.
Statewide, Walker took 52.25% of the 2,160,832 votes cast, while Tom Barrett took 46.48% (or a 5.77-percentage-point win). After taking Columbia County and all the counties south and east of there (Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha and Washington Counties) out of the totals, Walker’s margin among the 1,015,729 voters increased to a 55.14%-43.17% advantage (or a 11.97-point win). Even if one excludes Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties, which are at best marginally-attached to southeast Wisconsin, Walker’s outstate margin is still 54.36%-43.89% (or a 10.47-point win).
Only if one gave Barrett the Democrat strongholds of Dane and Rock County (and Walker the bare win in Columbia County) does the margin get close. Without Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties counted as “southeast Wisconsin”, Walker won by 2.87 percentage points. Counting Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties to include the entirety of the Milwaukee media market reduced the Walker win to 1.10 percentage points.
Let’s compare that to Mark Green’s performance in 2006 against Jim Doyle, who is from supposedly-equally-reviled Madison. Doyle carried the state by 7.39 percentage points, the counties except Columbia and those south and east by 5.28 points, the parts of Wisconsin outside the “core” southeast part of the state by 12.05 points, and the parts of Wisconsin outside the entire Milwaukee media market by 13.60 points.
It looks like not only didn’t Scott Walker have the “Milwaukee Problem” Tom Barrett did, but he significantly outperformed Mark Green outstate.
