No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Miscellaneous' Category

December 9, 2008

Drinking Right tonight

by @ 10:43. Filed under Miscellaneous.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. Tonight’s Drinking Right is ON! You are instructed to shovel yourself out of however inches of snow you’re under and report to Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee, at 7 pm.

As The Chad says, “It’s better to weather the weather with drinks and friends.”

This has been an Emergency Blogging System alert. Had it been a test, you would have been graded. Hell, if you’re not there and you don’t have a better excuse than the weather, you will receive a FAIL.

December 8, 2008

Eggs on the road – Double dose of Papa’s

by @ 13:34. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Since it’s December, we of the Cheddarsphere have not one, but two outings scheduled for Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee.

Dose #1 – Drinking Right, 12/8/2008 at 7 pm. As Nick said, “Don’t give into the hype! Go out when it’s snowing!” Besides, the snow (it will be all snow well before then, with the freezing rain coming overnight tonight) will be tapering off.

Dose #2 – Cheddarsphere Christmas party, 12/28/2008 at noon. This one is strictly non-partisan, and there will be a gift exchange during the halftime of the Packers/Lions game.

Be there or be nowhere.

December 5, 2008

Force Majeure Run Amok

by @ 10:50. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Force Majeure is a French phrase meaning “greater force.”   It is also a legal phrase used in many contracts.  

The “Force Majeure clause” is typically used in contracts that require the contracting parties to act over a period of time.   The clause generally says that the contracting parties are freed of the contracts obligations if an extraordinary and unforeseeable event occurs that prevents them from fulfilling their contractual duties.   Typical “extraordinary and unforeseeable” events that are called out in these clauses are riots, war, severe climatic event such as an earthquake, volcano etc.

I’ve been in business for more than a quarter of a century (doesn’t that sound like a long time?) and have been party to hundreds of business contracts that have had a Force Majeure clause.   I can’t remember one time that a Force Majeure event has been claimed in any of those contracts.   I’m not suggesting that Force Majeure never comes into play, it certainly does.   What I’m suggesting is that it’s a rare event when it does get invoked.

Donald Trump is building the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago, which is to be the second-tallest building in that city (after the Sears Tower).     The NY Times chronicles Trumps problems with the project as the real estate market has become recently challenged (you may have read about that.)  

Trump has a personal guarantee of $40 million on his project and he’s not happy about having to pony up on that guarantee.   In an attempt to save himself $40 million and perhaps to save his project, Trump is suing his lender Deutsche Bank.   His suit claims that the current economic conditions allow him to invoke the Force Majeure clause of his contract.   Trump’s reasoning?

"Would you consider the biggest depression we have had in this country since 1929 to be such an event? I would," he said in an interview. "A depression is not within the control of the borrower."

Oh man, where do I go from here?

I could go down the path of the automobile industry executives claiming Force Majeure has caused them to be in their current financial distress.   That Force Majeure has them standing in Washington with their hands out.   That Force Majeure is why they think we should agree with Nancy Pelosi that “bankruptcy is not an option!”   Yeah, I could go there….

I could go down the path that Hank Paulson appears to agree with Trump that the economic situation is a Force Majeure.   Why else would Paulson have asked for extraordinary and unforeseeable powers except to address a situation that was extraordinary and unforeseeable?   Of course what Paulson doesn’t seem to understand is that his extraordinary and unforeseeable measures are likely to have as extraordinary and unforeseeable circumstances.   Do you get the feeling at all that Paulson is just running to one side of a teeter-totter only to find that the other side just shot into the air?   He corrects this by running to the other side of the teeter-totter and the side he used to be standing on shoots into the air.   Yeah, I could go there…

I could go down the path that Nancy, Harry, Barry and the rest of the Dems also agree with “The Don.”   It’s really the only explanation for why they would want to throw another $700 billion of claimed “stimulus” into the economy when their first pass at it did bupkus.   Yeah, I could go there…

No, I don’t think any of those are the directions to go with this.   Not because they aren’t real but because they are all symptoms of the real issue.   “The Don” has hit upon a nugget of truth in his lawsuit.

Watching the “Bail out-o-mania” and the “I’m voting for Barack because he’ll pay my gas bill and my mortgage,” it strikes me that a significant portion of Americans believe that their entire lives  have become  subject to Force Majeure:

  • I can’t pay my mortgage – It wasn’t possible to forsee that I wasn’t really qualified to pay this loan
  • Abortion under any circumstances – It wasn’t possible to foresee the consequence of last night’s actions
  • Trophies for all – It wasn’t possible to forsee a winner and a loser as an outcome of the contest.

Force Majeure is commonly referred to as “Acts of God.”   Isn’t it ironic that so many people who don’t act as if they want God in their daily lives are now claiming “Acts of God” as the reason they are having the problems that they have?

December 1, 2008

Full-auto AR-15 plus chainsaw equals redneck heaven

by @ 15:36. Filed under Miscellaneous.

(H/T – Ace)

It seems somebody is planning hard for Z-Day and married a cheap electric chainsaw to an AR-15. Since this wouldn’t be much of a post without the video of the chainsaw bayonet in action, let’s roll tape…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ljd_hUxCfI[/youtube]

It’s also available in a shotgun model.

We’re off to see the Wizard!

by @ 8:27. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Revision by Shoebox:   Please welcome a new guest blogger Big G.   G, as those close refer to him, is one of the wisest people I know.   Big G brings unique perspectives and solutions to many issues.   While we don’t agree on everything, I’m sure you’ll find as I do, that Big G will cause you to frequently step back and say “Hmmmmmm.”

Next week the Big 3 and UAW President, President Ron Gittelfinger will be back in front of Congress with their new strategy to bilk billions from the American people.  This group of four has been working feverishly to retool and fine tune their joint presentation.  Through an unnamed source, we were able to acquire this exclusive video of how they plan to travel to DC this time, in addition to a splendid tap dancing performance by Ron "Tin Man" Gittelfinger that we found particularly good.  When we questioned our unnamed source about this risky presentation strategy, they stated that Congress had requested they get more creative and demonstrate that they "get it".  What better way to demonstrate this then by utilizing a epic American film to tell their story.    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVphSC41XZI[/youtube]

A Secret Button

by @ 5:31. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Disney is ruining the world!

So claims Christopher Jamison, the Abbot of Worth in West Sussex in this article in the UK Telegraph.

Abbot Jamison blames Disney for what he considers to be excess consumerism in the world and its denigration of spirituality:

“This is basically the commercial exploitation of spirituality,” he says, adding that as a result Disney and other corporations “inhabit our imagination”.

“Once planted there they can make us endlessly greedy. And that is exactly what they are doing.”

OK, disclosures first.   Mrs. Shoebox, Thing 1, Thing 2 and I are big Disney fans.   Why?   Well, a couple of things.  

First, the Disney brand (I’m not including Buena Vista and some of their other brands) is one of the few brands where we can be assured that “family entertainment” is actually family entertainment.   Yes, you may get the occasional “save the earth” theme but you won’t get swearing or sexually explicit subject manner hidden in the film.

Second, we’ve had the privilege of seeing numerous amusement parks.   “It’s not Disney,” is the phrase you hear from us in almost every park that isn’t, well, Disney.   Disney is creative on a level that is not matched by any other amusement park.   Their parks are clean beyond belief.   They manage to achieve in all of their “cast members” a service level that no other park comes close to.   Finally, there are no roaming gangs of unsupervised and ill behaved young people at Disney, Disney is for families.

Abbot Jamison claims:

“This is the new pilgrimage that children desire, a rite of passage into the meaning of life according to Disney.”

Well, no, not exactly.   I remember as a shoelet watching the Wonderful World of Disney.   I remember wanting to see “the most magical place on earth” more than anything else I could imagine.   Of course, growing up in the Midwest, that expedition didn’t come easily.   When I was 12 my parents, who were middle income at best, packed us up and took us by car, on a 2 week trip that included a couple of days at Disneyland.   My point is that it isn’t just recently that Disney has been a phenomena, it’s been an icon since the mid 60’s and parents for the past 40 years have managed to deal with it.

I won’t argue with Abbot Jamison that our culture has become more materalistic.   However, rather than directing it, Disney has recognized it and is marketing to it……just like any other marketer who finds what customers want and tailors their message to fit the desire!

As I’ve told you before, I spent about 20 years in the cell phone business.   From time to time when I was in the business, and even today, I would hear people talk about how annoying cell phones were.   How the cell phones would ring at inopportune times and they would “have” to take a call.   I explained to them then, as I do today, that all cell phones have been designed with a secret button that controls those undesired calls; it’s the OFF button.

Just like with cell phones, materialism can be managed.   Helping your children understand the difference between a “need” and a “want” is part of the responsibility of being a parent.   If you don’t do this, there is no doubt that materialism and consumerism will run rampant in your household and your children.   Unfortunately for too many children, they don’t get training on “needs” versus “wants” because their parents have never established the difference in their own lives.

There is no doubt that there are many ills that impact our society.   What I find disappointing in this and other pieces I’ve read written by Abbot Jamison, is that he appears to spend his time focused on symptoms rather than the root.  

As we enter this Advent season, it’s appropriate to remember that our moral code comes from God who created us.   This is the same God who sent His Son to be our atonement and our salvation.   He did this even though many still don’t “want” His salvation but “need” it.

Blaming the likes of Disney for materialism is like blaming excess consumer credit on the credit card companies.   Do both of them promote their products? Absolutely!   Do they work to gain the highest market share possible?   Again, absolutely!   However, in both cases, we as individuals control the secret button to control the offers; we can say no.

November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!

by @ 5:52. Filed under Miscellaneous.

There is nothing better in remembering Thanksgiving than to hear Rush Limbaugh give the real story of the first Thanksgiving.

Thank you, readers, for your time and your indulgence as you read through my “oh, so not important” missives.   Your comments are always appreciated!

Without further ado, Rush Limbaugh:

Anyway, leads me to the real story of Thanksgiving as written by me in my book “See, I Told You So!” We’re on Chapter Six here: “Dead White Guys or What Your History Books Never Told You,” page 70.

On August 1, 1620, the Mayflower set sail. It carried a total of 102 passengers, including forty Pilgrims led by William Bradford. On the journey, Bradford set up an agreement, a contract, that established just and equal laws for all members of the new community, irrespective of their religious beliefs.

Where did the revolutionary ideas expressed in the Mayflower Compact come from? From the Bible. The Pilgrims were a people completely steeped in the lessons of the Old and New Testaments. They looked to the ancient Israelites for their example. And, because of the biblical precedents set forth in Scripture, they never doubted that their experiment would work.

“But this was no pleasure cruise, friends. The journey to the New World was a long and arduous one. And when the Pilgrims landed in New England in November, they found, according to Bradford’s detailed journal, a cold, barren, desolate wilderness,” destined to become the home of the Kennedy family. “There were no friends to greet them, he wrote. There were no houses to shelter them. There were no inns where they could refresh themselves. And the sacrifice they had made for freedom was just beginning.

During the first winter, half the Pilgrims – including Bradford’s own wife – died of either starvation, sickness or exposure.

“When spring finally came, Indians taught the settlers how to plant corn, fish for cod and skin beavers for coats.” Yes, it was Indians that taught the white man how to skin beasts. “Life improved for the Pilgrims, but they did not yet prosper! This is important to understand because this is where modern American history lessons often end. “Thanksgiving is actually explained in some textbooks as a holiday for which the Pilgrims gave thanks to the Indians for saving their lives, rather than as a devout expression of gratitude grounded in the tradition of both the Old and New Testaments.

Here is the part [of Thanksgiving] that has been omitted: The original contract the Pilgrims had entered into with their merchant-sponsors in London called for everything they produced to go into a common store, and each member of the community was entitled to one common share.

“All of the land they cleared and the houses they built belong to the community as well. They were going to distribute it equally. All of the land they cleared and the houses they built belonged to the community as well. Nobody owned anything. They just had a share in it. It was a commune, folks. It was the forerunner to the communes we saw in the ’60s and ’70s out in California – and it was complete with organic vegetables, by the way.

Bradford, who had become the new governor of the colony, recognized that this form of collectivism was as costly and destructive to the Pilgrims as that first harsh winter, which had taken so many lives.

He decided to take bold action. Bradford assigned a plot of land to each family to work and manage, thus turning loose the power of the marketplace.

“That’s right. Long before Karl Marx was even born, the Pilgrims had discovered and experimented with what could only be described as socialism. And what happened?

It didn’t work! Surprise, surprise, huh?

What Bradford and his community found was that the most creative and industrious people had no incentive to work any harder than anyone else, unless they could utilize the power of personal motivation!

But while most of the rest of the world has been experimenting with socialism for well over a hundred years – trying to refine it, perfect it, and re-invent it – the Pilgrims decided early on to scrap it permanently.

What Bradford wrote about this social experiment should be in every schoolchild’s history lesson. If it were, we might prevent much needless suffering in the future.

“‘The experience that we had in this common course and condition, tried sundry years…that by taking away property, and bringing community into a common wealth, would make them happy and flourishing – as if they were wiser than God,’ Bradford wrote. ‘For this community [so far as it was] was found to breed much confusion and discontent, and retard much employment that would have been to their benefit and comfort. For young men that were most able and fit for labor and service did repine that they should spend their time and strength to work for other men’s wives and children without any recompense…that was thought injustice.’

Why should you work for other people when you can’t work for yourself? What’s the point?

“Do you hear what he was saying, ladies and gentlemen? The Pilgrims found that people could not be expected to do their best work without incentive. So what did Bradford’s community try next? They unharnessed the power of good old free enterprise by invoking the undergirding capitalistic principle of private property.

Every family was assigned its own plot of land to work and permitted to market its own crops and products. And what was the result?

‘This had very good success,’ wrote Bradford, ‘for it made all hands industrious, so as much more corn was planted than otherwise would have been.’

Bradford doesn’t sound like much of a… liberal Democrat, “does he? Is it possible that supply-side economics could have existed before the 1980s? Yes.

“Read the story of Joseph and Pharaoh in Genesis 41. Following Joseph’s suggestion (Gen 41:34), Pharaoh reduced the tax on Egyptians to 20% during the ‘seven years of plenty’ and the ‘Earth brought forth in heaps.’ (Gen. 41:47)

In no time, the Pilgrims found they had more food than they could eat themselves…. So they set up trading posts and exchanged goods with the Indians. The profits allowed them to pay off their debts to the merchants in London.

And the success and prosperity of the Plymouth settlement attracted more Europeans and began what came to be known as the ‘Great Puritan Migration.'”

Now, other than on this program every year, have you heard this story before? Is this lesson being taught to your kids today — and if it isn’t, why not? Can you think of a more important lesson one could derive from the pilgrim experience?

So in essence there was, thanks to the Indians, because they taught us how to skin beavers and how to plant corn when we arrived, but the real Thanksgiving was thanking the Lord for guidance and plenty — and once they reformed their system and got rid of the communal bottle and started what was essentially free market capitalism, they produced more than they could possibly consume, and they invited the Indians to dinner, and voila, we got Thanksgiving, and that’s what it was: inviting the Indians to dinner and giving thanks for all the plenty is the true story of Thanksgiving.

The last two-thirds of this story simply are not told.

Now, I was just talking about the plenty of this country and how I’m awed by it. You can go to places where there are famines, and we usually get the story, “Well, look it, there are deserts, well, look it, Africa, I mean there’s no water and nothing but sand and so forth.”

It’s not the answer, folks. Those people don’t have a prayer because they have no incentive. They live under tyrannical dictatorships and governments.

The problem with the world is not too few resources. The problem with the world is an insufficient distribution of capitalism.

The annual Egg Turkey Execution Proclamation – 2008 edition

by @ 0:01. Tags: ,
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Whereas the turkey is the offical bird of Thanksgiving, and

Whereas turkey is a delicious meat, and

Whereas turkey breast contains more protein and less fat and sodium than chicken breast,

Now therefore I hereby decree that a nameless, pictureless turkey be given a thorough plucking and a complete basting, and warmed to a sufficient temperature for human consumption, and further decree that turkey be thoroughly enjoyed until all of the meat be eaten.

-steveegg


Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. I do believe that this should answer the question that I asked late last week; Texacution for the turkey instead of a pardon.

November 26, 2008

Lather, Rinse, Repeat

by @ 5:27. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Another day, another round of bail outs.

In today’s episode, Hank Paulson told us that he was now going to back stop $200 billion of consumer loans.   He also said he was going to buy $600 billion of home loans from Freddie and Fannie.

At least this time Paulson is doing what he said.   He told us 2 weeks ago that he was going to buy consumer credit.   He also told us he was steering clear of “toxic” mortgages which he appears to be doing.

With Paulson doing his best imitation of “The Breck Girl,” doing his bailout version of “Lather, Rinse, Repeat” on at least a weekly basis, the question arises; “How long can we keep up the bail out express?”

Interestingly, McClatchy took up that exact topic today. After asking, “Can Government keep Spending?” They answered with, “Most Economists Say Yes.”

Now, I’m not the smartest guy but I have managed to keep my family fed.   How can economists not think that the spending and borrowing palooza isn’t a problem?   After reading a couple of the questions and answers from McClatchy, you’ll be a believer too….or not

Q: First of all, where does the money come from?

A: The bulk of the cash has been put up by lenders buying U.S. Treasury Department securities such as bonds, notes and short-term bills.

OK, they recognize that the bulk of the bail out has been financed through debt.

Q: How much money has the U.S. government spent or loaned out since September?

Here the article falls into drivel about the original $700B and today’s $800B.   They apparently haven’t kept up.   Bloomberg says the number is now over $7.7 Trillion.   Maybe to these economists a 500% miss is just a rounding error!

Q: How much longer can the government keep spending?

A: A lot longer, economists say. International investors will keep buying Treasury securities even though the interest rates on many of them are close to zero percent.

Based on this, if I can con multiple banks into giving me loans, regardless of whether I can pay them back, that’s a good way to “enhance my cash flow!”   Huh?   isn’t that the kind of thinking that got us into this situation?

Q: But should the U.S. government be spending so much money?

A: Most economists say yes. Although the federal budget deficit is projected to hit a trillion dollars next year, incurring massive debt at this point is eminently preferable to letting the U.S. economy slide into deep recession.

America can worry about cutting deficit spending when the economy starts growing at a healthy clip, economists said. The goal now is to get banks lending and consumers spending again.

Have we all missed something?   Is there a magical economic formula that says that unwarranted borrowing coupled with excessive spending leads to economic bliss?   Putting this thinking into the Shoebox household, we would be perfectly justified in taking the loans we had bilked banks out of and living a lifestyle that wasn’t sustainable  but for  the loans.   Oh, and we would tell ourselves it was OK because we would pay back the loans when we “got back on our feet.”  

Q: But will all this work?

A: It’s better than doing nothing.

Which leads us back to where we were two weeks ago when I chronicled Hank Paulson’s comments as:

  1. We didn’t know what we were doing.
  2. We don’t know what we’re doing now.
  3. We aren’t sure what we’ll do in the future.
  4. Trust me, I’m spending the money well!

First,  we had a “consensus” of scientists saying that the debate over man made global warming was over.   Now, according to McClatchy, we have “most” economists saying we should continue to borrow and spend without regard to the consequences.   Is it just me or does it seem like when it comes to government, being a part of the “in crowd” almost always means your wrong?

November 23, 2008

Blog n Grog – November edition

by @ 8:15. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

The word from Alexander is that it’s over at Nice Ash (327 W. Main in Waukesha, which is not hard to find now that they took out the gazebo and all the one-way streets) Tuesday the 25th at 7 pm. As we say, if you can find it on a map, you’re invited.

Jack is back

by @ 7:59. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Yes, it’s a 2-hour movie that isn’t quite following a timeline (as if “24” ever really followed the rules of the time-space continuum), but Jack Bauer is back after an extended absence forced by last year’s writers’ strike. Personally, the way Season 6 turned out, they could’ve filmed without any of the writers and still not done a worse job.

In any case, I’ll be watching “24: Redemption” with the gang over at Blogs.4Bauer. Be there so I don’t have to do the Bauer Towel Trick on you, dammit.

Don’t forget the B4B Kill Counter (simplified). The hot rumor is that it will be spinning wildly.

November 18, 2008

Left Logic

by @ 5:52. Filed under Miscellaneous.

OK, I admit up front that the title is an oxymoron.  

It didn’t take long following the 35W bridge collapse before the left, unable to bypass another “Bleed it leads” headline, started claiming that lack of funding caused inadequate inspections and thus the bridge collapse. A month had not passed when  a Star and Tribune editorial ran an editorial crying that the bridge collapse proved we needed to pay higher taxes:

The need to acknowledge that, whatever the collapse’s specific cause, Minnesota has allowed its transportation infrastructure to deteriorate to a level that threatens the safety of the public and the future of the economy.

and

The need to comprehensively repair what’s crumbling and start building and funding a transportation system compatible with market demand and the new global realities of energy insecurity and climate change.

The final report on the 35W bridge collapse was issued by the NTSB this week.   The findings, identified early in the process but naysayed by those who wanted a demon, was that the gusset plates were undersized by 50% in the original design.  

Darn, that sure puts a crimp in the whole “we need your money, money, money” meme!

Not to be put off track, the Star and Tribune wrote an editorial this Sunday addressing the NTSB report.   Unable to use the report to further pin the tail on the Republican Donkey Elephant, the Star and Tribune goes the next step and blames the Minnesota Taxpayers:

Last week’s National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) hearings on the cause of the Interstate 35W bridge collapse were dominated by the technical lingo of the investigators. Finite element analysis. Initiation location. Load redundancies. There was also one oft-repeated phrase combining two words rarely used together: “bridge owners.”

A heads-up to all Minnesotans: The NTSB is talking about you. And while it’s hard to think about owning bridges the same way as a home or a car, the reality is that these critical components of daily life belong to the public — not to politicians, not to transportation officials nor any other bureaucrat. Everyone owns them. Everyone shares the responsibility for ensuring they are maintained and cared for.

Um, No!

Can you just imagine the scene that would occur when I decide that I’m concerned about bridge X and that because I am a “bridge owner,” I’m going to stop traffic so that I can crawl around the bridge to give it my examination?   OK, well maybe that wasn’t what the Strib was going for.   However, their notion that we each share a responsibility for the safety of bridges is just as ridiculous.

The problem with the Strib’s thinking, and that of much of the Left’s policies are that at the first sign of trouble, if they can’t immediately pin the problem on a Republican, the next stop is that it’s “everybody’s problem!”   When it’s everybody’s problem than it is the perfect reason not to be left to individual cases but must be dealt with as a blanket issue by the Federal Government.   The left has no ability to deal with personal accountability.   Doubt me?

Abortion – no personal accountability at all.   Abortions must be available all the time for any reason.

Guns – must be banned.   No one individual can be held accountable for their improper use of a gun so no one can have one.

Fairness doctrine – some one may be offended so no one can hear speech that has a different opinion.

Social programs – don’t even get me started!

Education – again, don’t get me started!

The only way that I agree with the Strib is that we as taxpayers hire people to monitor, manage and repair various functions.   We call these people Senators, Congress people, Governors, Presidents etc.   In some cases, like the 35W bridge collapse, it doesn’t appear that there is reason to believe that any of these folks, or the folks they hire and oversee, would have reasonably determined the flaw in the original bridge design.   That said, in most other situations, these same people should be expected to anticipate and correct problems.   Unfortunately, that seems to be happening less and less.   In that case, we taxpayers are “owners” and we need to be more vigilant in holding our elected officials to accountability.

As I used to tell some of my people, “I’ve hired you to do a job and expect you to do it.   I’ll help, coach and support you but I won’t do your job.   If I have to start doing your job, then one of us is no longer needed….and it won’t be me.”

November 13, 2008

Project Valour-IT fundraiser – 2008 edition

by @ 20:33. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

I’m a bit late to the party, but once again, Soldiers’ Angels is having a fundraiser for their Project Valour-IT through Thanksgiving Day. Project Valour-IT provides laptops and other technology to support servicemen and servicewomen who are recovering from hand and other severe injuries.

As usual, there are teams aligned along the five branches (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard, which has been split off from the Navy this year) to spur the competitive juices. Do rest assured that no matter which team you donate to, the money is going into the same pot, and that it is all going to buy that technology. For those of you who itemize, Soldiers’ Angels is a 501(c)(3) non-profit, so you can itemize the donations. Like last year, I simply can’t pick a single team, so instead, I’m going with all of them.

There also is a slight change in the look of the blog. During the fundraiser, I have moved “Day By Day” to the right sidebar so I can run the charts at the top of the page.



When Smith Barney Talks, People Listen!

by @ 5:47. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Or at least that’s what used to be said.

Today, the phrase is more like, “When Hank Paulson talks, the market listens!”

Hank Paulson went to Capitol Hill to give an update on how he’s been spending the TARP money.   The market went from a down day, to one of those that gets posted on the top end of the history charts.   Unfortunately, this is something we’ve become accustomed to when Paulson speaks.  

What did Paulson tell Congress?

  1. We didn’t know what we were doing.
  2. We don’t know what we’re doing now.
  3. We aren’t sure what we’ll do in the future.
  4. Trust me, I’m spending the money well!

You doubt me?

Remember when it was “urgent” that we get a bailout bill?   So urgent that a mere 10 pages, double spaced, was enough for Paulson to get $700 billion? At that time Paulson was urging passage of the bill so that he could go out and buy toxic debt, CDOs.   Remember all the questions about how the $700 billion was arrived at and Paulson’s kind of answer that it was 5% of outstanding debt?   Geez, as late as October 24th, Dana Perino  was making excuses for why Paulson hadn’t implemented his CDO buyout with, “it’s complicated.”   Yeah, well, that was then:

"Over these past weeks we have continued to examine the relative benefits of purchasing illiquid mortgage-related assets," Paulson said in a speech today. "Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program] funds."

Instead of doing what he said he was going to do with the money, Paulson decided that direct infusions of capital into financial institutions was the way to go.   Paulson has been purchasing non voting stock or warrants for stock in various financial institutions.   Even though some have questioned whether the Treasury has been getting good value for their investments, Paulson has continued…up until now.  

After about $200 billion and about six weeks, Paulson has figured out, along with the Congressional buffoons, that if you put money into entities with “no strings attached,” that those entities will use the funds in their own best interests.   Funny thing is that the entity’s “best interest” hasn’t been aligning with what Congress and Paulson have thought the “best interest” was. This has made Congress mad (I don’t know why. After all, they were the ones that wrote the bill that was specifically vague in what Paulson could do with the money. If they didn’t care enough to put the time in to provide some guidance, why are they surprised when the actions are following to a “T” their lack of direction!) and has put just a hint of yolk on Paulson’s face.

In his written report and verbal comments, Paulson now wants to try a third path.   Paulson now believes that Treasury should use a combination of approaches.   He still believes that some direct cash infusions will occur.   Additionally, Paulson wants to do a matching fund approach where Treasury would match an amount raised through private equity (What have we got, some kind of a share-a-thon going on?)   Finally, Paulson told Congress that he didn’t want to be limited to just banks:

“We are carefully evaluating programs which would further leverage the impact of a TARP investment by attracting private capital, potentially through matching investments,” he said. “In developing a potential matching program, we will also consider capital needs of non-bank financial institutions not eligible for the current capital program; broadening access in this way would bring both benefits and  challenges.”

I would read that as “consumer loans,” most likely auto loans.

A couple of weeks back I reported on a study done  by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.   They looked at the initial reasons that Paulson gave Congress that the bail out was needed.   The study concluded that the issues that Paulson claimed he was attacking, really weren’t impacting the economy.   The combination of that report with Paulson’s helter skeltering from one approach to the next, leaves me wondering whether Paulson knows what the problem is or how to actually affect it.

If only Smith Barney were still alive.   Maybe he’d have the answers.

November 12, 2008

Just been burnt extra-crispy

by @ 20:22. Filed under Miscellaneous.

I just haven’t had the steam to blog the last couple days. Oh well; it happens.

November 11, 2008

Jersey City Councilman Responds to Voters

by @ 5:47. Filed under Miscellaneous.

A Democrat Councilman from Jersey City urinated on voters at a Grateful Dead Concert:

The New Jersey councilman who allegedly  urinated on a crowd of concertgoers from the balcony of a Washington, D.C. nightclub swore off booze on Sunday — two days after he was busted for the embarrassing stunt.

OK, well, maybe not all of the people he peed on were voters from his district.   Then again, like a four year old at a urinal, I’m not sure Democrats are feeling the need to be too careful about who they piss on these days!

November 10, 2008

So You Want To Run A Moderate?

by @ 5:22. Filed under Miscellaneous.

After a quick look at the ’08 and ’04 exit polls, I wrote that one of the things we learned from the ’08 election was:

Working from your base to the middle works better than working from the middle towards your base – Obama received support from 89% of self ascribed "liberals", compared to Kerry getting 85% of the same group.   McCain only received 78% of the "conservative" vote while Bush received 84% of the same group.   Of course those who are moderates broke for Obama 60% to 39%.   It’s clear from this that while Obama held his base, McCain never fully recovered from his early pokes in the conservative eyes.

After looking over some past exit polls, I don’t think that statement quite covers it.

In this election we had arguably, the most liberal candidate ever fielded by the Democrats run against one of, if not the, most moderate Republican (OK, we can argue about Ford, maybe even GHW Bush.)   Additionally, while the moderate tried to cloak himself with conservatism, the liberal made no such attempt and ran a campaign that was unashamedly left.

The notion of running a Moderate for the Republican candidate was cobbled from a series of theories.  

First, the Republican brand had been decimated through the combination of President Bush’s disappearing approval ratings and the electorates mistaken notion that the Democrats didn’t have a hand in the existing economic mess.  

Second, the Republican leadership is at best, moderate.   They believe they reflect their party and the broader electorate.   Remember the guffawing from Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy  when, caught via a “hot mike”  were heard ridiculing the choice of Sarah Palin because her choice by McCain was “cynical.”   Their point was that no one in the Republican party (read that leadership) believes what Palin believes.   Party Leaders, moderate and believing to be reflective of the electorate, they wanted one of their own.

Finally, there was a belief that a moderate would be able to gain votes from a broader electorate spectrum.   After all, where else could the conservatives go, the liberals were obviously going for the Dems so the fight was going to be for moderates.   The candidate who gained a bigger share of support from the moderates would surely win this election.

So with all that rationale for running a moderate, how did it work out?

Not well!

Yes, McCain loss but that’s not the take away from this election.   How he lost is the lesson.

I took a look at the exit polls for the last 32 years.   They started with Jimmy Carter beating Gerald Ford and went through the most recent election. I noticed a few things that debunks the “we win with moderates” thinking.

 

First, there are some who believe that we have become an electorate that is at least more moderate if not sliding to the liberal side. While there is some movement from year to year, you’ll notice that for the most part, the electorate, at least as they describe themselves, looks pretty much today as it did in 1976. In 1976, the electorate was 20%, 48% and 31% Liberal, Moderate and Conservative respectively. In 2008 the same split was 22%, 44% and 34%. If anything, the moderates have become slightly smaller as the electorate becomes a bit more polarized.

Second, note that with the exception of Reagan’s first term against Carter, no Republican has won without getting at least 80% of the Conservative vote. Reagan’s shortage of Conservative support can be attributed to some being split off to Anderson along with the fact that the election of that year had the smallest percentage of the electorate describing themselves as Conservative.   At any rate, it seems pretty clear that if a Republican doesn’t hold 80% of thieir base, they have little if any chance to win the election.   Interestingly, the same parallel does not hold for Democrats.   Democrats can win with less than 80% of the liberal vote, note Carter and Clinton’s first runs.   Only in Clinton’s second run, and now Barack Obama, have liberals supported the Democrat candidate with greater than 80%.

Finally, let’s look at those moderates.   Note that since 1976, Only Reagan’s landslide victory of 1984 garnered greater than 50% of the moderate support for Republicans.   Of course, Reagan also achieved a modern high of 29% amongst liberals.   Other than that instance, no Republican has gained greater than 50% of the moderate’s support.   More typical has been the Bush victories where mid 40% of the moderates supported the Republican.

OK, so some moderate support is required to win.   Was McCain’s strategy of courting moderates successful?   Obviously based on the end results, no.   However, I believe more than “No” we can say “Hell, no!”   Note that Obama has been the only candidate in modern times to gain 60% of the moderate support…and as I mentioned early in this post, he ran as an unashamed liberal!   It’s obvious that for his efforts, McCain made no inroads of import to the moderate electorate.

It’s clear that McCain’s desire to court the moderates failed.   In fact, his focus on the moderates cost him his base and doomed his election

November 7, 2008

Just completely out of steam

by @ 11:58. Filed under Miscellaneous.

I’ve got a couple of thoughts bouncing around, but I just can’t get them anywhere near polished enough to post any of them. Let’s see if running the rough outline past Shoebox and the 5 readers I have can help any:

Where does the rightosphere go from here? It’s not that the leftroots have any more say with the populace than we do, it’s that they’re far more willing to get their hands and money dirty in the machinery of politics especially at the local level, and that the party they have chosen to pretty much take over (the Democratic Party) is far more receptive to them than the party that is somewhat-more ameniable to our way of thinking is to us (the Republican Party).

Should we Whig the Republican Party? The Libertarians and Constitutionalists have tried this, but together they can’t get 5% in a given election. At the same time, the Republicans have explicitly given conservatives the middle finger to the eye the last 3 years (some could argue the last 12, and I can’t entirely disagree), and the voters have chosen to go with experience in the socialism scheme both parties have fully-embraced. Now would seem to be the perfect time because we’re likely stuck with FDR’s 5th and 6th terms, but I don’t think a new 2nd party would be ready to exploit the 2010 mid-terms.

November 4, 2008

Exit polls – 4:30 PM

by @ 16:38. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Fox and others have just released the first exit polls for several key states of Indiana, Ohio and Virginia.   Highlights:

  • New voters are breaking for Obama by 60 – 70% to 30% to 40%, depending upon the state.   Republican spokesperson “not surprised”
  • White men are breaking to McCain by 4% (Ohio)  to almost 20% (Virginia), depending upon the state.   Democrat spokesperson “not surprised.”
  • Late deciders are breaking for Obama in Indiana and Ohio but to McCain in Virgiana…about 10% spreads in each.

I’m encouraged by the Virginia info as it would seem to support McCain on a couple of key fronts.   The Ohio data gives me concern as white males are only slightly more disposed to McCain and there was a strong number for Obama in late breakers.   That said, I don’t see anything that causes any overall “this is getting away from us” at this point.

Stay tuned!

Revisions/extensions (4:53 pm 11/4/2008, steveegg) – In addition to my usual call to ignore the polls if you haven’t already voted, I present some circumstantial evidence dug up by Jim Geraghty that these may be as hosed as they were 4 years ago:

08:32 – AP doing exit polling in Stafford. Talking 4 to 1 to minorities over whites at a Republican precinct (Falmouth). Expect it to be skewed. Don’t trust the exit polls as they start to trickle out.

First, vote (especially if you’re going to vote for the elephant brand). Second, wait for some real numbers.

added revision (5:01, Shoebox)   – Drudge has been running a headline showing O up by 15% in PA.   That may actually be good news for McCain.   Kerry was up by 20% in the early polling and ended up winning by only 2%.

One more place to keep up with Wisconsin vote fraud

by @ 9:48. Filed under Miscellaneous.

The gang at Sam Adams Alliance has set up a blog to centralize all the reports in Milwaukee – Wisconsin Voter Fraud. I am a contributor there, so stuff I get here will also appear there.

November 3, 2008

RIP, Madelyn Dunham

by @ 15:52. Filed under Miscellaneous.

AFP reports that Barack Obama’s grandmother has died of cancer at the age of 86. Today, my prayers go out to the family. Tomorrow, my vote goes to John McCain.

Drinking Right – Election Edition

by @ 0:08. Filed under Miscellaneous.

I can’t promise I will be there either on-time or at all (one of the two forward observation posts I will be at may keep me busy beyond the time frame), but once again we will have a Drinking Right – Election Edition on Tuesday. The place is the same (Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee), as is the time (7 pm). Dave Casper, the Ghost of DR’s Past, even made a commercial for us…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXs31WGpL4Q[/youtube]

November 2, 2008

PSA – Set your clocks back

by @ 7:18. Filed under Miscellaneous.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because time is always an emergency.

For those of you in the US (and not in those parts that don’t observe Daylight Savings), Daylight Savings Time ended at 2 am local time today. If you have a WordPress blog (whether it is on WordPress.com, a WordPress stand-alone, or WordPress MU – this includes Blogivists and Conservablogs), and you had the time changed for Daylight Savings, you need to change it back to Standard Time (Central UTC -6, Mountain UTC -7, Eastern UTC -5, Pacific UTC -8, and check your clock for other locales). To do so, go into your wp-admin panel, select “Settings”, and under the “General Settings” page that pops up, select the right time zone. Don’t forget to hit “save” when you’re done.

We now return you to your regularily-scheduled lack of posts on Sunday.

October 29, 2008

Eggs on the road – the next week

by @ 18:59. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Tonight, 8 pm – Smog ‘n Grog – Nice Ash – 327 W Main St in Waukesha

Tuesday, 7 pm – Drinking Right Election Edition – Papa’s – 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee

Programming note; because I will be volunteering my time and talent to the poll watching on Tuesday, I don’t know when I’ll be in there, or when I’ll be able to launch a liveblog of the election. I will figure out some way to get it done.

October 28, 2008

Breaking – Toledo Police records clerk faces discipline for digging the press’ dirt on Joe the Plumber

by @ 15:35. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Maggie Thurber reports that Toledo Police Records Clerk Julie McConnell, who dug up Law Enforcement Automated Data System records on Joe the Plumber for an unknown press agency, will be facing gross misconduct charges based on alleged violations of both Toledo Police Department policy and Ohio state policy regarding access to that database.

As she is a union employee (AFSCME Local 7 to be exact), her disciplinary hearing will take place sometime in the next 10 days. Care to bet on that happening before 11/5?

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