define('DISALLOW_FILE_EDIT', true); define('DISALLOW_FILE_MODS', true); No Runny Eggs » steveegg

No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for posts by steveegg.

September 17, 2007

Roll bloat – 85% agree edition

by @ 20:00. Filed under The Blog.

While I disagree with Stan’s thoughts on the Pask case, I don’t quite hold that against him. Free Constitution is a good read and worthy addition to the roll.

Constitution Day

by @ 13:10. Filed under History, Politics - National.

220 years ago today, the world’s oldest national Constitution was signed by 39 of the 55 delegates who attended and 70 who were appointed to the constutional convention called for by the Continental Congress. A bit of trivia; Rhode Island sent no delegates.

Kevin Fischer passes along a 50-question online quiz. See if you can beat my 45-of-50 score (without cheating, that is).

Off to jury duty – UPDATE – done for 4 years

by @ 12:18. Filed under Miscellaneous.

I hate having a low-end last name; it seems they always pick from the beginning. I get to fight downtown traffic to get there by 2 and pay boku bucks for parking. Could be better; I could be fighting Zoo Freeway traffic and have to get there by 1. Hopefully I’ll be back soon. In the meantime, the guest-blogging sign is lit.

Before I go, there is a reason why Milwaukee County uses DMV records rather than voting records; non-existent people usually don’t drive, but they sure do vote in Milwaukee County.

Update (4:35 pm 9/17/2007) – That was a wasted 2 1/2 hours. The $11 that the county is coughing up just about covers parking ($8) and gas (about a gallon). I’m back.

September 16, 2007

NFL Week 2

by @ 8:48. Filed under Sports.

If you also took the unders last week, you would’ve made money. Without them, you would’ve went a vig-losing 7-7-2. Since I’m just getting started, let’s roll with the first “real” week of the NFL betting season. As usual, the lines are from Bodog (via VegasInsider.com):

Green Bay @ NY Giants (-2.5) – Jump all over this one to give yourself solace on payday. RW McQuarters isn’t going to cough up punts, Eli Manning’s now a game-time decision and likely to play, and Donald Driver is still the entire Packers’ offense.
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-10) – Do not overestimate the power of positive news. The Bills are not a good team, while Blitzburgh is back to blitzing.
Cincinnati (-7.5) @ Cleveland – Welcome back to the NFL, Mr. Anderson.
Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Tennessee – I’m convinced that the Titans’ ground game was a fluke last week.
Houston (+7) @ Carolina – Too many points to give, even if Houston doesn’t have much of an offense.
San Francisco (+3) @ St. Louis – You may like/want/get the points, but you’re not gonna need them. GORE! GORE! GORE!
Atlanta (+10.5) @ Jacksonville – How are the Jags favored, much less favored by 10 1/2? Run, do not walk, to your nearest bookie and put the 401k on Hotlanta.
New Orleans (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay – For grins, take the over 41.5. If you’re daring, take the Saints to break that 41.5 on their own.
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Detroit – Take the defense. ‘Nuff said.
Kansas City @ Chicago (-13) – If the Texans could win by 17, so can Duh Bears. Take the under 34.5 as the Chefs aren’t scoring.
Dallas (-4) @ Miami – The Deadfins are dead.
Seattle (-3) @ Arizona – Odds of Matt Leinart not finishing this game; 4-1. TAKE IT!
NY Jets @ Baltimore (-10) – Ray Lewis could have no arms and I still would take the points.
Oakland @ Denver (-10) – Layeth the Rocky Mountain Lumber.
San Diego (+3.5) @ New England – Throw away them tapes, Pats. It’s a new coaching staff.
Washington @ Philadelphia (-7) – The Deadskin defense is just what a rusty McNabb needs.

September 14, 2007

Red China is our “friend” part 532,971

by @ 15:33. Filed under International relations.

Why am I not at all surprised that Red China has resumed helping Iran get nuclear weapons?

Secluded? SECLUDED?!?!?!?

by @ 13:44. Filed under Law and order, Lawgivers-In-Black.

Revisions/extensions (10:58 pm 9/14/2007) – For those of you who can’t get the WMV embed to play, here’s the YouTube version. I do not as a rule embed YouTube videos as I can’t get the sound to work with either Internet Explorer or Firefox.

R&E part 2 (11:40 am 9/17/2007) – Patrick has a better video.

If you haven’t heard by now, Sheboygan County Circuit Judge Timothy M. Van Akkeren overturned a guilty verdict on a child enticement charge rendered by a jury against a slimeball serial sex offender by the name of Mitchell D. Pask. The Journal Sentinel has a quick, yet exhaustive, history on Pask, including his past and present history with Van Akkeren (which includes the charge he is still in jail for at the moment, indecent touching of a woman at a Sheboygan store), and Patrick over at Badger Blogger has a good starter’s list of other cases that Van Akkeren took the perp’s side, but let’s focus on this one.

In Van Akkeren’s instructions to the jury, he defined “secluded area”, a necessary condition for child enticement, as “a place screened or hidden from view or remote from others.” With that in mind, I took a little trip to Workers’ Water Street Park…

I seem to have found three spots that would meet the above definition of “secluded area”, one right at the picnic shelter itself, and two within easy walking distance. Then again, considering the Lawgiver-In-Black loves to let perps walk, I don’t suppose he thought of that.

I hope the fine folks in Sheboygan County act on this about the end of April, 2008, when Van Akkeren becomes eligible for recall.

September 13, 2007

Stupid idea of the day

by @ 19:30. Filed under Politics - Milwaukee County.

Because there’s federal money to be spent, and because everybody else has jumped off the cliff, the lemmings on the Milwaukee County transportation board want to spend $124,000 of local cash plus $230,000 yearly in maintenance costs to put bicycle racks on county buses. This comes at a time when cash is so “tight”, fares are going up and service is going down.

Beyond that, why should gubmint subisidize those that overestimate their bicycling abilities at the expense of not only the taxpayers, but the time of the 13 people that ride the bus? Even according to the rose-colored glasses of the transit folks, they’ll only take in $22,000 per year by hauling around 11,000 bikes per year. That leaves $208,000 in maintenance costs paid for by the taxpayers. Who here thinks that they’ll get roughly 11,000 trips that they otherwise wouldn’t get to even collect $22,000, especially since the bicycling season is at best 7 months?

Roll bloat – the visits edition

by @ 18:34. Filed under The Blog.

Item #1 – Keith Conrad, late of the Daily Early (thanks, Patrick) Spin.

Item #2 – State Sunshine and Open Records, an open-government effort.

Heck at the Center Right

by @ 7:23. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

First things first; this is a day late and strictly from memory (in my haste, I left the pen in the car), but I’m doing a semi-kiss-and-tell at the request of Mark Block, co-chair of the Center Right Coalition.

No, the title is not a euphemism, but Jay Heck from Common Cause Wisconsin decided to take the trip into the Madison Club yesterday to a less-than-full crowd (a bit unusual because the last couple have been standing-room-only). He opened up with a rather unique personal political history (started off as a Rockefeller Republican, went to work for a Democratic Congressman after the Reagan election, left after a few years because he became disillusioned with the money, came to Wisconsin thinking that politics here was clean, got disillusioned again, and eventually ended up at Common Cause). He then pointed out that he wasn’t Mike McCabe (that came up a few more times as well), and pointed out that he’s tried to keep Common Cause Wisconsin non-partisan and out of policy issues. A couple of examples I remember; they weren’t at the Fighting Bob Fest, and despite pressure from the membership (and unmentioned, opposite the national Common Cause plank), they have not taken any stand on the Iraq War.

The meat of his presentation was how money and its pursuit has become too important in Wisconsin. Jay pointed to three different gubernatorial races; the 1986 race between Tommy Thompson and Tom Loftus, the 2006 race between Mark Green and Jim Doyle, and the 2006 Minnesota race. In 1986, the candidates spent a bit over $3 million. In 2006, Green, Doyle and the special interests spent over $30 million. In Minnesota, the candidates spent just over $10 million, while special interests were essentially barred under Minnesota law.

Jay also pointed out that his group called a bit of shinola on Rep. Sheldon Wasserman’s call to keep those on the budget and Joint Finance committees, and only those on those committees, from being able to raise funds during the budget process. They believe that nobody should be able to raise funds during said process. To complete the story, Wasserman, who is not on either committee, is organizing for a run against Sen. Alberta Darling, who is.

A vigorous, yet friendly, discussion occurred between Jay and Reps. Rich Zipperer and Frank Lasee over Common Cause Wisconsin’s proposed remedy for the influence of money. As I didn’t bring a tape recorder, I’ll let those three decide whether they want to rehash it.

All in all, it was another good hour meeting.

September 12, 2007

Digitial analysis – M-m-m-m-m-max bin Laden

by @ 19:44. Filed under War on Terror.

(H/T – Allahpundit)

Dr. Neal Krawetz, who is good enough to get a C|Net story, did some video/audio and image analysis of the “new” Osama bin Laden video. The money quotes:

The big question is: is the audio from Bin Laden? I’m not an audio expert (yet) and since I don’t know Arabic, I cannot tell if there is an accent or if the accent changes. I do know that the room echo and background sounds change during different audio clips. And there are so many splices that I cannot help but wonder if someone spliced words and phrases together. I also cannot rule out a vocal imitator during the frozen-frame audio. The only way to prove that the audio is really Bin Laden is to see him talking in the video, but all references to current-events come during the frozen-frame section.

I’m shocked, SHOCKED that there would be so many splices in the audio-only portion of the M-m-m-m-max bin Laden tape. How about the under-4 minutes of video?

There are some very obvious places where the video has been spliced. Here’s some examples:

  • 1:39 — A little more than a minute and a half into the video is a splice. He goes from looking out to looking down in less than 1/25th of a second.
  • 13:13 — The second splice. Not as big, but definitely there.

There are actually six splices in the video as far as I can tell.

The video itself was filmed in two takes. The first section opens the video and ends at 1:56. The second section begins at 12:29 and continues until 14:01. That’s right: the entire 26 minute video has less than four minutes of animated footage. The rest of the video just shows a still-frame of Bin Laden. The two sections are clearly from different recordings because the desk is closer to the camera in the second section.

Let’s see; 3:28 of live video, 6 splices. They couldn’t get more than 35 seconds out of “ObL” before they had to cut. M-m-m-m-max Headroom got more than that. Let’s continue with the video analysis, with my note that Krawetz believes the 2004 video was made in 2004 (I have my doubts on that):

Yet here is Bin Laden in the same clothing, same studio, same studio setup, and same desk THREE YEARS LATER. In fact, his stack of papers that he reads are moved between the exact same stacks. If you overlay the 2007 video with the 2004 video, his face has not changed in three years — only his beard is darker and the contrast on the picture has been adjusted.

What are the chances of nothing changing (except his beard) in three years? Virtually zero. The clips appear to have been recorded three years ago.

Or longer. However, I do not put as much stock in the sameness; a studio in Milwaukee can be made to look exactly the same as one in New York City. Morever, others have noted differences in the face between the 2004 video and the 2007 one. On to the image analysis:

As far as my tools can detect, there has been no image manipulation of the Bin Laden portion of the image beyond contrast adjustment. His beard really does appear to be that color. (I’ve asked another graphics researcher to also look at the image I analyzed, as a cross-check.)

One of the limitations of image analysis is that staged environments are not digital fakes. For example, when China Airlines painting over their logo on crashed planes, the pictures did not analyze as being faked — because they were not. In the case of his beard, it could be a costume mask, or a trimmed and dyed beard.

Let’s stop for a moment. It could also be a look-alike. Do recall that the late Saddam Hussein reportedly employed up to 25 look-alikes to try to prevent his assassination.

Another limitation concerns image size and resaves. If you make a picture small enough or resave it many times, then the fine details vanish. A picture that looks obviously like a fake cannot be detected as being a fake.

Neal goes on to note that the bin Laden frame and border were both saved at least twice and not at the same time, and that the various elements of the video came from different sources. The conclusion:

So is Bin Laden still alive? I see no proof of his existance that is newer than three years ago. Bin Laden is as alive as Elvis.

It is a lot easier to hide a corpse than a living body.

September 11, 2007

Poll housekeeping

by @ 23:51. Filed under NRE Polls, Politics - National.

I somehow failed to include a “none of the above” choice in the “Which Presidential candidate(s) is/are out this month?” poll. It’s now rectified.

If you haven’t voted, do so.

Drinking Right Presidential straw poll

by @ 23:32. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Uncle Fred (Dooley, not Thompson) and I decided to run a short straw poll at Drinking Right tonight. John Washburn ensured that the process was cleaner than Milwaukee’s elections. Short-and-simple; every vote was a write-in, so no bitching that a candidate got short shrift. Here are the results (there was a late voter; since he wasn’t there when the rest of the ballots were handed out, we let him vote):

Fred Thompson – 5 votes
Ron Paul – 2 votes
A Fucking Candidate – 1 vote
Blank ballot – 1 vote
Keith Conrad – 1 vote
Fred – 1 vote (wish that voter had been more specific; after all, Dooley was in attendance)
Duncan Hunter – 1 vote
Tommy Thompson – 1 vote

If you missed Drinking Right this month, we’ll see you again same time, same day, same place next month.

September Drinking Right – TONIGHT

by @ 17:28. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Nobody’s seen Casper since who knows when, Sean’s gone to DC, and I was gone last month, but there’s still lots of drinking to do. I’ll be at the usual spot (Papa’s Social Club – 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee) at the usual time (7 pm) on the usual date (2nd Tuesday – Sept. 11).

Be there, or be somewhere.

Revisions/extensions (5:28 pm 9/11/2007) – Bumped to the top. Now, let’s drink.

Never forget

by @ 8:35. Filed under War on Terror.

Six years ago today, a bunch of Islamists decided to snuff out the lives of 3,000 people because they wanted a worldwide Caliphate full of nobody except their kind. Though they haven’t managed another attack on American soil, they are still as committed to that goal now as they were then.

Fortunately, we’ve been taking the fight to them, slowly but surely eliminating those that hold that murderous view. We need to stay at least as committed to defeating them as they are to killing us.

NFL Week 1 review – and it’s weak

by @ 0:53. Filed under Sports.

We still have the Monday Night games are through the Monday Night games, but so let’s run back through the week that was. First things first, that was one hellova gift from the Eaglets; the Pack had no business being in that game offensively. The defense stepped up nicely, even though Wile E. Thompson’s Golden (Crutch) Boy, Justin Harrell, spent the day in street clothes. Special teams got REAL lucky they ran into a punt return team more inept than their own. Needless to say, I blew the call.

On to the rest of the NFL:
New Orleans 10 @ Indianapolis 41 (-6) – Saints ain’t ready for prime time.
Tennessee 13 @ Jacksonville 10 (-6.5) – That’ll learn me to trust the preseason.
Pittsburgh 34 @ Cleveland 7 (+5.5) – Meet the New NewBrowns. Same as the Old NewBrowns.
New England 38 (-6.5) @ NY Jets 14 – While malcontent + good O-line – 4th rounder = blowout is true, I still don’t think Moss was worth a 4th rounder (because the Packers put the “offensive” in O-line).
Atlanta 3 @ Minnesota 24 (-3) – I might have made a mistake in giving the Pack the season sweep.
Carolina 27 @ St. Louis 13 (-1.5) – Those that have Vernand Morency better pay attention to what happened to Steven Jackson.
Denver 15 (-3-LOSS) @ Buffalo 14 – Prayers for Kevin Everett, who suffered a cervical spine injury.
Kansas City 3 @ Houston 20 (-3) – I was right about taking the under 37.5.
Miami 13 @ Washington 16 (-3-TIE) – Yeah, this game was weak; it also was an overtime game, so I’m fortunate to not take a fat “L” on this one.
Chicago 3 (+6.5) @ San Diego 14 – I probably would’ve taken the under at 23 as well.
Tampa Bay 6 @ Seattle 20 (-6) – I’m glad the Pack doesn’t play the Seahags during the regular season; they’re specializing in taking out players.
Detroit 36 @ Oakland 21 (-2) – I should’ve stuck with the normalcy.
NY Giants 35 @ Dallas 45 (-6) – DOWN GOES MANNING! DOWN GOES MANNING! Fortunately, it wasn’t the Manning on my roster.
Baltimore 20 @ Cincinnati 27 (-3) – I told you to take the offense.
Arizona 17 @ San Francisco 20 (-3-TIE) – What the FUCK happened to Larry Fitzgerald? Did Larry Fine replace him? FUCK!

Since I took all the favorites to win in my no-spread confidence pool, that leaves me at 12-4 straight-up and 7-7-2 against the spread. Not too shabby for Weak 1, considering that is usually my Week of Doom.

Those performanes leave me at 3-1 so far in fantasy ball, but the team I’m losing to is out of players, and I still have 3 to go. That drink (I think I’ll make it an Uncle Jimbo Bacardi and Coke) is going to taste very good once I make up that 25 points.

DAMN! SHIT! FUCK! Where the hell did my receivers go? FUCK! FUCK! FUCK!

September 10, 2007

Roll bloat – the forgetful edition

by @ 15:49. Filed under The Blog.

I’ve had Right from the Right in SharpReader for quite a while, so imagine my surprise when somebody (no, not The Game) pointed out that it was missing from the roll.

Oversight corrected.

September 9, 2007

Roll bloat – Star Wars edition

by @ 7:36. Filed under The Blog.

I’m slowly, but surely, working the national blogs into the rotation. This time, it’s The Jawa Report.

Revisions/extensions (10:05 pm 9/10/2007) – Fixed link. D’OH!

September 8, 2007

Crying River Flood Warning for the DOT and road builders

by @ 15:11. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Selected excerpts from the latest whine from the ‘Rats that taxes aren’t going up:

Democrats who control the Senate and Republicans who run the Assembly agree that fees for vehicle and truck registration, driver licenses and titles should increase. Lawmakers had hoped to raise many of those fees on Oct. 1, but because of budget delays they likely can’t go into effect until Dec. 1, at the earliest.

That delay translates into $28 million that drivers will save and that the transportation fund will lose, according to the Legislative Fiscal Bureau.

That increase is exceptionally dumb. I welcome the lack of the increase, even though my driver’s license is good through 2011, and my car registration is good through next July.

By Oct. 1, the DOT must tell local governments how much state transportation aid they’ll receive in 2008. Without a new state budget, local governments will be told to budget using the aid they got last year, which likely will lead to fewer projects, service cuts or higher property taxes and bus fare hikes, Busalacchi said in his letter.

You mean that Payne & Dolan might not get to spread as much of their inferior product around? Out-fragging-standing! You mean that not as much air might get shuffled around Milwaukee County on buses? Huzzah! You mean that the freeloaders on said buses might be asked to pick up a little more of the cost of transporting them around (and in the case of the public college students, pick up any of said cost)? YES!!! You mean that there won’t be more choo-choos in Milwaukee? Where do I sign up?

“If you don’t pass a budget and you don’t have a bonding level set for what you’re going to do for roads or buildings, then you’ve got to cut way back on what you’re doing,” Doyle told reporters.

If it means less roundabouts, I’ll take that trade. Besides, how many outstate towns are left that don’t have 4-lane bypasses?

Doyle and Senate Democrats want a tax on oil companies, who the governor says have forced Wisconsin drivers to pay unreasonable gas prices. If it became law, and survived an expected court test, it would bring in about $160 million a year.

Keep this number in mind; I’ll bring it up again in a bit. That, plus interest, is what the state the state’s taxpayers will be refunding the oil companies once the courts strike the tax down. Oh yeah; that’s also what the drivers in the state will be paying until said tax is struck down.

“I don’t know why (Republicans) continue to protect big oil,” Decker said.

Allow me to ReWrite™ that for truthfullness – “I don’t know why (Republicans) continue to protect big oil the taxpayers,” Decker said.

Over the past four years, more the $1 billion was moved from the transportation fund into other spending. Doyle moved much of that money by reshaping two budgets with his veto powers….

Doyle’s original budget included $160.8 million in transfers from the transportation fund. The Senate-passed budget had transfers of $73.3 million, and the Assembly budget had no transfers.

SHOCKA! Craps’ latest proposed raid is half his gas tax. It also is essentially the entire agreed-upon-in-principle licensing and registration increases.

As for the $1 billion, you suppose that if it had stayed in the transportation fund, we could get by without tax increases? Instead, we get increases now, and more when that money has to be returned to the transportation fund (think “Social Security ‘Trust Fund'”).

But Decker noted Republican legislators have approved transportation fund transfers in the past.

So, Russ. Just because the Pubbies acted stupid before, they have to continue to be stupid? Sorry, but that’s not how rational people think. Of course, I know I’m probably making the mistake of believing the light at the end of the tunnel is the sun instead of an oncoming train by applying rationality here, but unlike you and your fellow ‘Rats, there is a glimmer of hope for rationality out of the Pubbies.

Packers’ prediction

by @ 12:13. Filed under Sports.

Since I’m the eternal pessimist, I don’t want this one lost in the comments section of The Bar’s prediction thread:

Week 1 – vs Eagles – loss
Week 2 – at Giants – loss
Week 3 – vs Chargers – loss
Week 4 – at Viqueens – win
Week 5 – vs Duh Bears – loss
Week 6 – vs Deadskins – win
Week 7 – Bye
Week 8 – at Broncos – loss
Week 9 – at Chiefs – loss
Week 10 – vs Viqueens – win
Week 11 – vs Panthers – loss
Week 12 – at Lions – loss (because of the Turkey Day Curse)
Week 13 – at Cowpokes – loss
Week 14 – vs Duh Raiders – win
Week 15 – at Lambs – loss
Week 16 – at Duh Bears – loss
Week 17 – vs Lions – win

Final record – 5-11 (and I’m generous giving the sweep against Duh Viqueens)

As you noticed, unlike everybody that’s taken the winning-season Kool-Aid, I’m telling you which teams they will and will not beat.

“New” Bin Laden tape…or is it?

by @ 10:59. Filed under War on Terror.

If you haven’t heard the news that al Qaeda has issued a “new” videotape of Osama bin Laden, you’re not paying attention. Howie at The Jawa Report has the full video, and there’s something quite “curious” that Allahpundit pointed out. At the 1:55 mark, the image of Blackbeard bin Laden becomes a freeze frame. Interestingly, that is before the first reference to events past December 2001.

Guess al Qaeda’s Max Headroom technology isn’t perfected (or is it the Left’s; after all, “ObL” rails on Global “Warming”, corporations and neocons as well).

Revisions/extensions (7:58 am 9/9/2007) – I should’ve watched the whole thing; Dr. Rusty Shackleford (founding Jawa) notes that there also is motion on the “Osama”-cam from 12:30 to 14:00, when the figure channels Breck Girl, Barack Hussein Obama, and Alpha Algore Goracle. It makes it a bit more likely the video is somewhat-fresh; however, Osama has expressed admiration for the Vietnam-era defeatists among the Dhimms in the past, and the envirowhacko/anti-business plank has been part of the Dhimm policy since the 1960s, and there is no concrete references to events beyond December 2001.

September 7, 2007

Election fraud update

by @ 15:40. Filed under Elections.

Even though nobody in the county or federal court houses, or on the corner of Fourth and State seem to be interested in this, John Washburn continues to keep on digging into what went wrong in Milwaukee on November 2, 2004, and it isn’t good:

  • 107 of 314 wards had a variance between ballots handed out and ballots scanned of more than 10.
  • Each half of the Joint Task Force has refused to issue a final report.
  • There is now an open complaint to the State Elections Board and its successor, the Government Accountability Board, over the falsehood perpetrated by the Milwaukee Election Commission that the records of the 11/2/2004 election were seized by the Joint Task Force.
  • 42 of 624 poll books, official election records, disappeared between 11/2/2004 and 7/10/2007.

Richard M. Daley would be jealous.

September 6, 2007

NFL Week 1

by @ 16:51. Filed under Sports.

Yes, the Brewers are back in a tie for first, but we’ve got NFL football. Get your phones out, call up Knock Knees Tony, and get your bets in. Here we go with a 16-0 start, with the lines from Bodog (or is that 0-16; I always suck Week 1 :-) –

New Orleans @ Indianapolis (-6) – There will be no letdown from the Super Bowl this week.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-6.5) – The Titans have no running back and no defense.
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+5.5) – Suckitude in mirror is closer than it appears, especially in a road division game.
Philadelphia (-3) @ Green Bay – Now starting at running back for the Pack – Edgar Bennett.
New England (-6.5) @ NY Jets – Until proven otherwise, it’s J-E-T-S S*CK! SU*K! SUC*!
Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3) – They’re already calling for Joanie Harrington’s head in Hotlanta.
Carolina @ St. Louis (-1.5) – When in doubt, Dome it.
Denver (-3) @ Buffalo – It doesn’t matter who runs for the Broncos; he will get 1,000 yards.
Kansas City @ Houston (-3) – Don’t ask me why the Texans are getting 3. Just know that this is a push game and make your bank on the under 37.5.
Miami @ Washington (-3) – The game of the weak.
Chicago (+6.5) @ San Diego – The under 43 is just screaming to be taken with two of the best defenses on the field and a new coach for the Bolts.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-6) – Give all you want, the Seahags will score more.
Detroit @ Oakland (-2) – Normally, I wouldn’t take Duh Raiders. However, you guys on the cold-and-snowy side of the pond know just how bad Duh Lions are.
NY Giants @ Dallas (-6) – The two biggest pass-catching threats for the G-men are banged up. Over/under on the number of Grammatica PAT misses – 1 (take the over).
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-3) – This early, take the offense.
Arizona @ San Francisco (-3) – There is a reason why Alex Smith went #1 and Leinart slipped badly. Exploit it.

Mary Katharine Ham interviews Bradley Smith

by @ 13:03. Filed under Politics - National.

Smith, for those of you who didn’t know (and I didn’t until today), is a former Federal Election Commission chairman/commissioner who knows campaign finance laws like few others. In a very special treat, the Hammer gives us not one, not two, not three, but four slices of her video with him.

Watch and learn what the decisions announced yesterday mean for blogs, campaigns, and 527s.

Dogs and cats living together, or sheep into the lion’s den

by @ 11:05. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I don’t know which is more likely when Jay Heck, executive director of Common Cause Wisconsin, makes an appearance at the September 12 meeting of the Center Right Coalition. As usual, the meeting is at 9 am at the Madison Club (5 E. Wilson next to the Hilton in Madison). If you plan on joining in on this unique meeting, let Mark Block know at markb – at – afphq – dot – org (you ought to know what to do to get that to a proper e-mail address).

I didn’t see the reminder from Mark in the e-mail, but what is said there stays there unless it’s said for attribution. In short, don’t expect a kiss-and-tell from me.

Presidential Pool – end of the summer revisit

by @ 10:42. Filed under Politics - National.

Nothing much has changed on the Dem end of the pool from the first-blush look. Edwards has hung on a bit longer than I thought, but he’s still a distant third, with Obama a distant second, to Clinton. Nobody has yet dropped out, and the DNC is serious about punishing states that leapfrog Iowa/Nevada/New Hampshire/Super-Duper Oversized Tuesday, so that’s the left-end update.

Things, however, are far more interesting on the Pubbie end, with a heap of changes from the first-blush look. I was a bit off in saying Tommy Thompson would be the first out (Jim Gilmore was), though I will claim that he’s the first one I named that departed. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson has finally entered, and it appears likely everybody that’s running is in. ‘Tis time to go through each one rather briefly:

Sam Brownback – Somebody please tell me his platform beyond amnesty and a 3-nation Iraq “solution”. I just don’t know what it is. Oh, and he has no chance.

Mike Huckabee – He’s become the anointed placeholder/dark-horse in the previous absence of Fred Thompson. Unfortunately, he’s a proven tax-hiker, and he supports the 23% 30% “Fair”Tax. Beyond that, he’s vanilla.

Duncan Hunter – Repeating my early analysis, he’s a “mere” Congressman. That, along with a near-invisibility to the press, has doomed his candidacy to failure. I hope he’s at least on the short list for VP because he is without question the most-conservative of the bunch.

Rudy Giuliani – For a conservative, he is truly a one-trick pony. Fortunately for him, that one trick is the GWOT, and he’s not afraid to call out the enemy as “radical” Islam. Also fortunately for him, he is for the moment the most-liberal non-toofer in the race, which means the media is fawning over him. Unfortunately, the rest of his record is anything but good (fee tax-hiker, gun-grabber, pro-abortion, need I go on?), and if he receives the nomination, he would lose all the media at that moment just like John McCain lost them when Giuliani joined the race.

John McCain – I’ll say one thing; he is quoted most often by his opponents. If anything, he is even stronger on the GWOT than Giuliani, even though he wrongly believes that if we don’t torture, the Islamists won’t. Unfortunately, there’s already three strikes against him (4 if you include his extreme dislike for Christian conservatives); an utter refusal to consider tax cuts as a way to shrink government, McCain-Feingold, and amnesty for illegal aliens.

Ron Paul – I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again and again and again until the convention (I don’t see the toofer conceding until then); Paul is in the wrong party and in the wrong era.

Mitt Romney – With the collapse of McCain, the Republican version of Bill Clinton emerged as the early challenger to the media candidate. Almost all of his conservative views have only manifested themselves in the last 13 years. Of course, the fact they manifested themselves that all in Massachusetts is a plus, but not enough in my mind to override my concerns of his earlier liberalism.

Tom Tancredo – I thought he killed his campaign when he called for a full-stop on immigration a couple debates ago, then drew down his staff. Like Hunter and Paul, he’s “only” a Congressman, and he is a one-trick pony on immigration.

Fred Thompson – He’s said the right things in his run-up, but like Romney, he has a few liberal skeletons in his closet. However, do not underestimate the power of height and TV presence.

So, what’s next? The cracked hard-boiled eggshell has Brownback, Hunter and Tancredo all drop out by the end of this month. It is likely that Huckabee will follow them before Iowa as he realizes he was just a placeholder. Beyond Iowa, states are leap-frogging each other too much right now to predict who will have the big mo going into Super-Duper Oversized Tuesday, but I do know that it won’t be McCain or Paul.

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