No Runny Eggs

On February 24th, Ralph Nader announced his Presidential Candidacy.   I didn’t post it here but I made comments on other sites saying that this was going to be a positive for the Republicans.   I made the argument that the ideologicals of the left were likely going to look for an alternative when their particular candidate (either  Hillary or Barack)  ultimately was flamed.   I was heartily pooh poohed at the time being told that the 2000 impact of Nader was a once in a lifetime event and that he wouldn’t amount to more than a raindrop in the ocean in 2008.

Zogby International released a poll on 3/15 that has not received any airtime on a rather interesting item.   In that poll, where they find McCain beating either Clinton or Obama, they have Nader receiving 5% – 6% of the vote.   I guess folks were right when they said 2004 was a one time event, Nader only received 2.7% of the vote in that election!

5%, not much you say?   Generally you’d be correct if we elected President’s on a purely popular vote but we elect them essentially,  state by state.    A quick peak under the historical numbers show some pretty interesting possibilities.  

The following chart shows the states in 2004 that  John Kerry won with less than a 5% margin and Nader’s percent of vote in those same states from the 2000 election:

Assuming Nader could do again as well as 2000 and that he pulls predominantly from Democrats, this could mean that Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and maybe even Oregon come into play.   Some of this is starting show as Rasmussen has released polls showing that McCain has pulled within the margin of error in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Take one more twist and assume that Nader did in fact nearly double is vote percentage from 2000 and that it was distributed across the states in the same way that it was in 2000.   Those numbers would look like this:

 This would now have the potential to put 7 states in play.

OK, we don’t know how this is going to play out.   However, I’m willing to bet that the longer Obama and Clinton beat on each other, the more likely it will be that those who are on the losing side will want to find an alternative way to express themselves This should be  especially true if this is decided at the convention and there is little time to adjust. (Hey all you we “I’ll never vote for McCain” folks, remember how that feels?)

OK, it’s early yet and we don’t know how this will play out.   My point is now, as it was when he entered the race, Nader will impact this race and it will be a negative for the Democrats.

If you’re still not convinced consider this; it was likely Ralph Nader who caused George Bush to win the 2000 election. Florida was decided by approximately 540 votes.   Nader received 97,488 votes .   Who do you think those votes would have gone to?   Do you still think Nader can’t impact the 2008 election?

I wonder if Richardson  knows that Judas never got to spend the silver he received?

PORTLAND, Ore. "” "I talked to Senator Clinton last night," Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said on Friday, describing the tense telephone call in which he informed Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton that, despite two months of personal entreaties by her and her husband, he would be endorsing Senator Barack Obama for president.

"Let me tell you: we’ve had better conversations," Mr. Richardson said.

But Mr. Richardson stopped returning Mr. Clinton’s calls days ago, Mr. Clinton’s aides said. And as of Friday, Mr. Richardson said, he had yet to pick up the phone to tell Mr. Clinton of his decision.

The reaction of some of Mr. Clinton’s allies suggests that might have been a wise decision. "An act of betrayal," said James Carville, an adviser to Mrs. Clinton and a friend of Mr. Clinton.

"Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic," Mr. Carville said, referring to Holy Week.

Note:   I am not endorsing not hoping for Pawlenty as VP.    There are many people I would  rather see in that slot.   This blog is part of “calling ’em like I see ’em.”    

Rasmussen Reports has a new Minnesota poll that shows John McCain dramatically closing the gap with his potential Democratic candidates.   McCain now leads Clinton by 1 and trails Obama by only 4, both within the margin of error.

Obviously, Obama’s issues with Jeremiah Wright’s statements have led to these increases.   I believe that with McCain this close in  a state  that has been tough to impossible for Republican candidates, Tim Pawlenty moves to the top of McCain’s VP pick list.  

While simply putting Pawlenty on the ticket could well put McCain over the top in Minnesota, leveraging him with some  other internal Minnesota  would dramatically increase the Republican vote here. (more…)

Many church’s are known to be giving organizations.   In the case of Barack Obama’s church, they just keep giving support to the thought that Barack Obama is an opportunist who will say and do anything that will serve his personal purpose.

Reported at Worldnetdaily.com, Jeremiah Wright reprinted a Hamas terror manifesto as his “Pastor’s Page” in the church newsletter.  

How much more does Barack need to know about Wright’s views before he goes beyond simply denouncing them and separates himself from this person?  

On this Good Friday we are reminded  that the Gospels are ultimately a story of  forgiveness, hope and salvation.     This  does not appear to be the gosple  of Jeremiah Wright.   His gospel appears to  be a gospel of hate!

I read the transcript of Barack Obama’s speech on race.   As I was reading it, I was struck that this speech while intended to address race relations,  gave great incite as to how Obama would handle international relations, especially with countries like Iran.  

In his speech , Barack Obama said about Jeremiah Wright’s abominable comments:

Instead, they expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country — a view that sees white racism as endemic, and that elevates what is wrong with America above all that we know is right with America, a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.

As such, Rev. Wright’s comments were not only wrong but divisive, divisive at a time when we need unity; racially charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems — two wars, a terrorist threat, a falling economy, a chronic health care crisis and potentially devastating climate change; problems that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all.

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Of the two major parties, the Democrats are the party of race.

Exit polls in 2004 showed that John Kerry won 88% of the African American vote.   In the same race, Zogby claimed that Kerry out drew Bush in Hispanic voters  by 65%/34%.

In the 2008 primaries there has barely been a Democratic contest that didn’t have stories talking about how Obama or Hillary were likely to win or lose a particular state due to the presence, absence or mix of race included in the state.
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Barack Obama has yet to explain why, when he knew about Jeremiah Wright’s hateful speech, he remained a part of Wright’s congregation for 20 years.   Maybe he just has a tin ear for hateful speech?   Maybe he has a heart larger than any of us and is able to forgive heinous comments that you and I would recoil at?

Apparently not.  

Take a look at this video of Barack commenting on the Imus’  remark about female basketball players.

In case you missed it or don’t want to watch the link, here are the relevant questions and Obama’s answer:

David Gregory – "¦Do you think (Imus) should be fired?

Barack Obama – I don’t think MSNBC should be carrying the kinds of hateful remarks that Imus uttered the other day.   He has a track record of making those kinds of remarks"¦

David Gregory"¦will you or would you be a guest on his show in the future?

Barack Obama – no I would not"¦.he was fine when I was on that show.   I don’t want to be an enabler or be encouraging in any way of the kind of programming that results in the unbelievably offensive statements that were made just a few days ago.

So….Obama believes appearing on another Imus show, a show that Barack says has a track record for hateful remarks would be enabling or encouraging that kind of behavior.

Wow!   1 appearance or 20 years, 1 appearance or 20 years, 1 appearance or 20 years, 1 appearance or 20 years.

Revisions/extensions (11:24 pm 3/18/2008, steveegg) – Attempted to fix the embedded video.

WARNING: What you are about to read could cause black helicopters to hover over your house.   Read with extreme caution!

To steal a style from Glenn Beck:

What you need to know:

Barack Obama’s implosion over Jeremiah Wright has guaranteed that the Democratic ticket will include both Barack and Hillary.
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Talking constantly about change, I wonder if this is the kind of change Barack Obama refers to:

Regarding his knowledge of Jerimiah Wright’s sermon content:

Huffington Post Blog  3/14/08

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation.

In Barack’s “speech on race” 3/18/08

Did I know him to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes.

Regarding funds he received from Rezko:

From the Chicago Sun-Times June, 2007

Obama has collected at least $168,308 from Rezko and his circle. Obama also has taken in an unknown amount of money from people who attended fund-raising events hosted by Rezko since the mid-1990s.

But seven months ago, Obama told the Sun-Times his “best estimate” was that Rezko raised “between $50,000 and $60,000” during Obama’s political career.

From the Politico  3/14/08

Obama’s acknowledgment that Rezko raised as much as $250,000 for earlier campaigns, initially made in an interview with The Chicago Tribune and confirmed later to Politico, came after a year-and-a-half-long trickle of admissions about Rezko’s fundraising role and more than a month after Obama’s aides contended that they had identified and jettisoned all Rezko-linked cash. It also came as Rezko’s trial on corruption charges, underway in Chicago, brought increased scrutiny of Obama’s ties to the real estate developer, fast-food magnate and political insider.

Democratic Presidential Candidate, Barack Obama, seems to have a problem getting his arms around the facts!

The “consensus” thinking has been that as McCain moved into the general campaign, he would need to make overtures to We conservative folks.   The argument is that the pick of a VP may well show us that he is “listening” and “reaching out.”

All of that “thinking” held while there was concern that a general election would be a close, hard fought affair where McCain would need to not just get, but enthusiastically motivate conservatives in order to get enough turn out to win against a movment force like Obama.  

Then along comes Jeremiah Wright…..

I know a couple of days does not a trend make but….the polls have shifted hard, quickly.   There will certainly be the hard cores who believe the stuff that Wright is saying and will continue to support Obama.   However, I think there is a larger group, particularly those who consider themselves “moderates” that will find it impossible to support Obama with Wright in tow.  

If the polls continue to show McCain with a growing lead over either Democratic candidate he may not be concerned about getting the Conservative vote. I’m afraid that any hope (not the Obama kind) that conservatives had of McCain feeling motivated to “show us some love” and throw us a bone could go out the window along with Obama’s liklihood of being elected for anything more than just another lying, graft receiving Senator.

Update:    Wow!  I just discovered  a national article that cover this same concept.   Apparently  those black helicopters I keep hearing might be real after all!  

I wrote here  about the potential loss of an entire generation of Democratic voters.   I postulated at the time, that the  cause would be Hillary “stealing” the Democratic nomination and thereby crushing the hopeful acolytes of Barack Obama.   By crushing their hope I argued that Hillary would drive the 30 and under crowd out of the ’08 election.

Prescience isn’t always 20/20!

10 days later and Barack Obama creates an environment that could cause Generation Y to fore-go politics all together.
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Now that sermons from Barack’s Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, have come to surface:

"The government lied about inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color. The government lied."

It’s time for Obama to update his rhetoric:

…And it just reminds me that we’ve got a tragic history when it comes to race in this country. We’ve got a lot of pent-up anger and bitterness and misunderstanding. But what I continue to believe in is that this country wants to move beyond these kinds of divisions. That this country wants something different.

Becuase it’s apparent that not Everybody wants to move “beyond these kinds of divisions,” and some of those who appear most challenged are those closest to him.

"Barack knows what it means living in a country and a culture that is controlled by rich white people," Wright said. "Hillary would never know that.

"The government gives them (African Americans) the drugs”

Jeremiah Wright

Now that it’s apparent that he can’t ignore the abhorent statements of his 20 year Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama is attempting to find a way to escape further damage.

Finally, he has removed Wright from the African American Religious Leadership Committee, a group that was advising the Obama campaign.

In an attempt to provide some explanation for why he didn’t know about Wright’s comments earlier, Barack, in a post on the Huffington Post wrote…  “The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation.”

Who is he trying to get by with that statement? If my Pastor said:

“The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing ‘God Bless America.’ No, no, no, God damn America, that’s in the Bible for killing innocent people. God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme.”

during a Sunday morning sermon, it wouldn’t have mattered if I was there or not. I can assure you that that statement would have sent a fire storm through our congregation and been discussed by EVERYONE as we considered whether there should be some sort of disciplinary action taken on our Pastor.

So that leads me to one of two conclusions:

A. Obama is disingenuous at best and a flat out liar at worst when he says:

When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign.

How would he or Michelle have missed the hubbub a statement like that would have created?

or

B. The rhetoric that has come to light from Jeremiah Wright was common place and because it was not unusual, it didn’t stir any controversy within the congregation when he said things like the above quote. If this is the case, then whether Barack was there on any particular Sunday is irrelevant because the type of speech would have occurred regularly and Barack would have been present for some and perhaps many sermons of similar content.

I kind of hope the answer is A because I can’t even imagine what kind of regular hate filled diatribes would get a congregation, that claims to be Christian, to excuse the language and statements that have now become public.

Here’s a story that’s too good to pass up.   I propose we start a contest to come up with the best title/headline for this story:

WASHINGTON (AP) – The committee in charge of running House Republican campaigns said Thursday that a former treasurer “deceived and betrayed” the group, which is missing hundreds of thousands of dollars"”and possibly more"”due to fraudulent acts conducted over the past several years.

Complete story here.

Here’s a couple of headlines to start the fun:

NRCC Treasurer makes personal earmark!

or:

Deceit and Betrayal: Doing to them what they do to us.

There have been a number of recent articles suggesting that Barack Obama has reached his peak and will likely see declines in his popularity.   A review of the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll seems to confirm this.

In today’s poll, Barack Obama is shown as having a favorable rating of 52%.   His rating has dropped from a high of 56% of just 3 weeks ago.   During that same time frame, John McCain’s favorability rating has remained flat or up slightly at 53%.   While these are the numbers that generally get the headlines, it’s the underlying numbers that tell me that Obama has hit his peak. (more…)

It’s official, John McCain is no longer adoringly  referred to as  “The Maverick.”

In another “Are we living in Bizzaro world or what?” story, the AP reports several Dem blasts of John McCain as the person responsible for Boeing’s loss of the Air Tanker contract.   Somehow McCain’s work to uncover corruption that included a former Boeing CFO and a former Air Force official being jailed and a $6B overcharge to the US taxpayers is now a bad thing!
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The AP, amongst others, is trying to drum up a story about John McCain and his temper.

A New York Times reporter attempted to ask John McCain questions about his conversation with John Kerry re: the possibility of being his VP for the 2004 election.   From what I can see, the reporter was trying to do a “got ‘cha” over some dates.

I’m no John McCain acolyte.   I’ve watched this, I’ve listened to it without the video and I’ve read the transcript.   Maybe there is a story here, I don’t know.   But if the reporter isn’t able to frame the question in a way other than “let me try and trip you over dates,” she needs to find another occupation.   Other than another attempt to create a front page piece over nothing, I don’t see any HERE, HERE. I’ve seen more pointed responses in church meetings.  

I think this is one time I’m glad McCain doesn’t suffer fools gladly!