Right after the November election, UW student Todd Stevens asserted so, and I retorted using the AP’s countywide numbers. On Wednesday, the Government Accountability Board certified the results and, more-importantly, released the ward-by-ward data. For those who don’t remember, the 2nd Congressional District, which incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeated Chad Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin (with the remainder writing in somebody), covers all of Columbia, Dane and Green Counties, significant parts of Jefferson, Rock and Sauk Counties, and almost the entirety of the part of Whitewater that is in Walworth County.
Meanwhile, Republican Scott Walker (and his running mate as lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch) beat Democrat Tom Barrett (and his running mate, Tom Nelson) by a statewide 52.25%-46.48% margin, with the remainder either voting for a couple other candidates who qualified for the ballot or writing somebody in. With that background, let’s take a county-by-partial-county look at how Walker did versus how Lee did:
- Columbia County (whole county, 21,385 votes in the gubernatorial election and 21,149 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 51.71%/Barrett 46.83%, Lee 52.93%/Baldwin 47.01%. Advantage – Lee by 1.03 percentage points.
- Dane County (whole county, 220,273 votes in the gubernatorial election and 218,865 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 67.96%/Walker 30.98%, Baldwin 66.56%/Lee 33.38%. Advantage – Lee by 3.80 percentage points.
- Green County (whole county, 13,187 votes in the gubernatorial election and 13,227 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 49.00%/Walker 48.46%, Baldwin 51.03%/Lee 48.92%. Advantage – Walker by 0.78 percentage points.
- Jefferson County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 18,194 votes in the gubernatorial election, 18,005 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 54.45%/Barrett 43.98%, Lee 52.24%/Baldwin 47.66%. Advantage – Walker by 5.90 percentage points.
- Rock County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 23,657 votes in the gubernatorial election, 23,606 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 53.07%/Walker 45.01%, Baldwin 53.18%/Lee 46.79%. Advantage – Lee by 1.68 percentage points.
- Sauk County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 11,228 votes in the gubernatorial election, 11,262 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 51.41%/Walker 47.13%, Baldwin 51.52%/Lee 48.42%. Advantage – Lee by 1.18 percentage points.
- Walworth County (city of Whitewater specifically, 3,377 votes in the gubernatorial election, 3,346 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 52.09%/Walker 46.14%, Baldwin 55.77%/Lee 44.11%. Advantage – Walker by 5.70 percentage points.
The bottom line:
Out of 311,301 total votes in the gubernatorial election, Barrett beat Walker by a 62.44%-36.33% margin. Meanwhile, out of 309,460 total votes in the Congressional election, Baldwin beat Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin. By my math, Lee did better than Walker by 2.50 percentage points, and I don’t hear anybody (other than the sore losers on the far left) calling Walker a “bad” candidate. I’m sorry to have to break the bad news to Stevens that the 2nd District will elect a Democrat as long as the district has roughly its current borders.
