(H/T – Sister Toldjah)
The Detroit News reports that, under a proposal by the Obama administration to be unveiled later today, not only will the CAFE standards increase above the 2020 mandate 4 years early, but that the proposed California emission standards will become the new nationwide standards. Specifically with regard to the CAFE standards, passenger cars (which will, as of 2011, include most 2WD SUVs) will be required to get 39 mpg by 2016 (up from 27.5 mpg this year), light trucks will be required to get 30 mpg by 2016 (up from 23.1 mpg this year), and the combined fleet will be required to hit 35.5 mpg by 2016.
Before I continue, I need to explain CAFE a bit, and deliver a good news-bad news combo. First, the good news is it is not based on the EPA estimates you see on the sticker. Rather, it is a laboratory number using testing methods set in the 1970s.
In fact, there is not a “CAFE mileage” number available from either the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (the entity that lords over the CAFE numbers) or the EPA. However, based on published reports that the CAFE mileage is roughly 30% higher than the EPA numbers, the unadjusted combined mileage in the datasets from the EPA appear to be close enough to the CAFE numbers for my purposes.
The bad news is that the average uses the harmonic mean based on the CAFE mileage and the number of each type of vehicle produced. That is because what is actually being measured is the number of gallons being burned over a set distance.
So, what 2009 models would cut it in a 2016 world? That’s the ugly news. Here are the 34 passenger car models (which, effective 2011, will include most 2WD SUVs/CUVs) and 12 light-truck models that will meet the standards:
- Toyota Prius
- Honda Civic – hybrid, 1.8L manual, and 1.8L gas automatic only
- Nissan Altima – hybrid only
- Toyota Camry – hybrid only
- Volkswagen Jetta – TDI manual and TDI 6-speed automatic only
- Volkswagen Jetta Sportwagen – TDI 6-speed manual and TDI 6-speed automatic only
- Ford Escape – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
- Mazda Tribute (corporate twin to the Escape) – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
- Mercury Mariner (corporate twin to the Escape) – hybrid 2WD (car) and hybrid 4WD (light truck) only
- Mini Cooper – naturally-aspirated manual only
- Mini Cooper Clubman – naturally-aspirated manual only
- Toyota Yaris – both manual and automatic
- Toyota Corolla – 1.8L manual and 1.8L automatic only
- Honda Fit – all three engine/transmission combinations
- Kia Rio – both manual and automatic
- Hyundai Accent – manual only
- Chevrolet Aveo – manual only
- Pontiac G3 (corporate twin to the Aveo) – manual only
- Chevrolet Aveo 5 – manual only
- Pontiac G3 5 (corporate twin to the Aveo 5) – manual only
- Chevrolet Cobalt – XFE only
- Pontiac G5 (corporate twin to the Cobalt) – base manual, XFE, and GT manual only
- Scion XD – manual only
- Toyota Highlander – Hybrid 4WD only (light truck)
- Jeep Compass – 4WD manual only (light truck)
- Jeep Patriot – 4WD manual only (light truck)
- Mazda 5 – both manual (light truck) and automatic (light truck)
- Toyota RAV4 – 2.5L 4WD only (light truck)
- Nissan Rogue – AWD only (light truck)
- Ford Ranger – 2.3L 2WD manual only (light truck)
- Mazda B2300 (corporate twin to the Ranger) – 2.3L 2WD manual only (light truck)
I remember Car and Driver doing a 40-mpg CAFE special way back when. I wonder if they’re ready to revisit that.
Revisions/extensions (6:50 am 5/18/2009) – I did the post last night, so there were a few typos. Also, there’s a couple of additional thoughts.
If one takes out the different engine/transmission combinations (which I did above) and the corporate twin duplicates, there are 25 distinct models. That leaves three midsized cars (the Prius, Altima and Camry), five different compact cars (Jetta, Corolla, Aveo/G3, Rio and Accent), two small station wagons (Jetta Sportwagen and Fit, though the latter probably fits better into the subcompact category), six different subcompact cars (Civic, Yaris, Clubman, Aveo 5/G3 5, Cobalt/G5, and XD), a minicompact (Mini), five SUVs (Escape/Tribute/Mariner in both 2WD and 4WD form, Highlander 4WD, Compass 4WD, Patriot 4WD, RAV4 4WD and Rogue AWD, with all but the Highlander compactl-to-micro-sized), one micro-minivan (Mazda 5), and one compact pickup (Ranger/B2300). That also leaves only 15 automatics in the bunch.
All I can say is I’m glad I’m single and know how to drive a stick.
R&E part 2 (8:41 am 5/19/2009) – Welcome readers of The Other McCain.
R&E part 3 (11:00 am 5/19/2009) – Truesoldier asked a very good question over at Michelle Malkin’s post on this:
Ok that is on new vehicles, but what about the cost of retrofitting old vehicles to meet the “California” emission standards? I know when I used to live in California back in the 90’s if you brought a car from out of state you had to pay a fee , I believe it was around $500, if your car did not meet California’s emmision standards to get your car retrofitted. So is there going to be forced retrofit to meet the testing standards?
I believe that requirement is to retrofit out-of-state cars to the level of emissions required of that model year in California, not to retrofit older cars to current standards. Still, I wouldn’t put it past Obama’s EPA to pull that stunt to get the current crop of cars off the road.
Housekeeping item – I will be liveblogging the self-congratulatoin up above, so if you came directly to this post, please click the big “No Runny Eggs” at the top of the blog to get there.
So how, exactly, am I to manage an out-of-town soccer tournament in one of those things? Sheesh!
Supposedly the Mazda 5 can handle 7 (though since it’s barely bigger than my Outback Sport, I don’t see how). The Highlander does seat 7. Other than that, it looks like they forgot the maxim that passenger-miles-per-gallon gets more-than-halved if a second vehicle needs to be scrounged up.
I’ve seen the Mazda 7 on the road – my PT Cruiser will hold more stuff that that thing. And a 4wd Highlander? I don’t need 4wd. I live in the South. When it snows we stay HOME. Nobody knows how to drive on that white stuff!
2WD SUVs being scrapped in favor of 4WD ones is potentially another unintended consequence of the government trying to micromanage the auto industry. The original CAFE rules gave us the minivan and ultimately extended-cab and crew-cab pickups, the protectionist tariffs on imported 2-door SUVs gave us the 4-door SUV, and increased safety standards gave us 3,000-pound compact cars again.
It’s not too hard to drive on snow. It’s a lot like dirt, only slipperier. One of my favorte pasttimes on snow-covered roads is to see just how far out I can hang the tail of Blue Thunder; I’ve become pretty good at it.
Ice, on the other hand, is a different story.
to get the current crop of cars off the road.
This is the first step to completely banning private vehicle ownership among political outsiders, isn’t it? Outlaw existing vehicles, jack up the cost of new vehicles–congratulations, poor/working class/young people, you don’t get to own a car. Good luck getting to work or school outside of major urban areas.
Not sure what the next step is, but I’m sure someone’s working on it.
This is yet another series of regulations for one of the most regulated industries. Let’s hope that automakers can develop the technology to comply with the new standards without sacrificing the vehicles’ usefulness and still stay viable (i.e. not go broke!).
When you look at the history of innovation and invention in the auto industry, I’m optimistic that they can do it.