No Runny Eggs

Over the past two weeks, speculation has been growing that Mitt Romney will be McCain’s VP.      In fact, several sources have flat out stated, that Mitt Romney will be McCain’s VP.   Even Intrade has shown a near doubling of the price for “Mitt for VP” as an indication that the market is quickly coalescing on this pick:

alt=”Price for 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) at intrade.com”
title=”Price for 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) at intrade.com” border=”0″>

But will Romney be McCain’s VP?   Let’s look at the events of this weekend to get a hint:

Other than what was spun by the Obama campaign, there were two story lines that followed the Biden announcement:

• Biden was picked to shore up Obama’s inexperience in foreign affairs
• Biden’s pick again showed  Obama’s  lack of core by picking a Washington insider after campaigning on Hope and Change

Neither of the main story lines were helpful to the Obama campaign.   Additionally, within a few hours of the announcement, the McCain campaign had ads running using Biden’s own words to reinforce the image of Obama being inexperienced and not ready to be “The One!”

The first rule of picking a VP is “Do no harm.”   It could be argued that Biden will help Obama get more of the Democrats to vote for him (latest polls show 20+% not currently doing so) but his dissonance with Obama’s message and his own harsh words about Obama’s readiness will make it difficult for Independents to see the Obama/Biden ticket as anything other than what George Will called a “Kangaroo ticket” where the hind legs are much stronger than the front.   People don’t vote for VP candidates who are presidential they only vote for Presidential candidates who are presidential!

If McCain picks Romney, the story lines following the announcement of  his choice will be:

• Romney was picked to shore up McCain’s inexperience in Economic matters
• Romney was the pick because McCain had to satisfy his conservative base

Within hours of the pick, the Obama campaign will have ads out using Romney’s own words whacking McCain and they’ll point out how his “conservative credentials” are recently acquired and can’t be trusted.

With what McCain saw in the last 24 hours, why would he set himself up for a replay of this weekend only  with different faces pasted on the animated bodies?

He won’t.

The selection of Joe Biden to be the Democrat VP and the experience of the past 48 hours following have determined who McCain will select for his VP.   John McCain will pick Tim Pawlenty as his VP.

As an experienced and arguably successful Governor from a blue state, Pawlenty passes the “do no harm” test.   While there will certainly be discussion about Pawlenty’s policy positions, there will not be any tape of him bad mouthing McCain nor will he be perceived to be upstaging McCain or filling a gap in McCain’s experience.   On the plus side, while Pawlenty is every bit as affable as Biden is reported to be, he is not enamoured with the sound of his own voice.  

The McCain campaign has had a good month.   With the Democrat convention this week, the momentum should naturally move Obama’s direction.   The timing of McCain’s VP announcement followed by the Republican convention should minimize both the height and duration of any Obama convention bounce.   Picking Romney would allow Obama a chance to expand his convention bounce and that’s not a mistake that the McCain team will make.