You’re on your way to losing in Minnesota.
A recent SurveyUSA poll shows Barack Obama with a 2% edge over John McCain amongst likely voters in Minnesota. And that’s the good news for Obama, in the most recent poll.
The bad news, at least for Barack, is that the poll shows that nearly all Republicans and Democrats have made up their minds.
The stat that should leave Obama concerned is that in early June, Independents broke for Obama 50% to 36%. In the latest poll McCain has the lead amongst Independents 44% to 42%. Obama is not just losing the vote of Independents, the Independent vote is running away from him.
The results and direction of movement isn’t particularly surprising to anyone outside of the MSM who wants to pay attention. I wrote waaaaaaay back here that Democrats in Minnesota had overreached and were causing a backlash within the state. What I didn’t guess at that time was that DC Democrats were also going to overreach and give the Republican candidate a “Motherhood and Apple Pie” issue like gas prices.
John McCain is slated to announce his VP pic on August 29th. Intrade and other rumblings are calling for McCain to pick either Romney or Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Pawlenty has obvious advantages for carrying McCain over the top in Minnesota. Less known is that Minnesota was one of the few states that Romney won in the primaries and we are a caucus state. None of Barack Obama’s rumored choices are likely to have any impact on his support in Minnesota.
With Independents breaking for McCain, a VP choice that will likely get him some added support and the Democrat party refusing to address any additional oil drilling, look for McCain to make Minnesota a swing state for the 2008 election.
I’m so looking forward to the editorial on this blog if McCain selects Lieberman
Which half, Shoe’s or mine?
Oh, I’m pretty sure the server would seize after the first 10 keystrokes of whoever got here first!