No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for May, 2008

May 22, 2008

Why Are Oil Prices Increasing?

by @ 5:00. Filed under Miscellaneous.

The price of a barrel of oil has increased nearly 50% since the first of the year.   There has been much speculation as to what is driving the increase.   The drop in the value of the dollar, increased usage from developing countries, tension in the Middle East, speculators and numerous factors have been pointed to as causing the run up.   Certainly, each of these have impact on the price increase but I think one factor has been missed entirely.

Let me start with some background, in poker playing.   When playing poker it’s important to not tell your opponent what you have in your hand.   That seems pretty obvious.   What’s not obvious to most folks is that telling another player what you have in your hand doesn’t typically involve spoken words.   Good poker players can tell what their opponents think of their hands based on “tells.”   “Tells” are unconscious body gestures, stroking your chin, pulling an ear, scratching your nose or a host of other things that the player may do each time they have a good, or a poor hand.   A good poker player will identify and use those “tells” to determine what kind of hand their opponent has.   Based on that information, they know how to bet.

So why has oil been increasing?   The world oil market has been reading the “tell” of the US political system.  

Look at this chart that shows the price of Light Sweet Oklahoma Crude (it tracks pretty close to the NY traded crude)  by day of 2008.  
oil-prices

OK, this would be a lot easier if I could draw arrows on graphs but….

Let me give you the events of a few dates:

  • February 6, 2008 – Super Duper Tuesday and John McCain takes an early, substantial lead for the Republican nomination.   (John McCain is anti ANWR.)
  • March 4, 2008 – John McCain wins enough delegates to claim the Republican nomination.   (John McCain believes in man made global warming and wants to institute a cap and trade system to carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels including oil.)
  • April 1, 2008 – Congress grills Oil executives and threatens to remove tax deductions and impose other sanctions that will increase their costs

So what happened to oil prices along those same dates?

  • February 6, 2008 – Oil began a price increase that saw it closing above $100 for the first time.
  • March 4, 2008 – After failing to $105 for nearly 2 weeks, oil begins a drive that takes it to a close above $110 for the first time.
  • April 1, 2008 – The begin of the most recent surge that has seen oil move, in a near linear fashion, to above $135.

I’m not saying that there is a direct cause and effect between the outlined activities and the move of oil.   I am saying that the world oil market is getting consistent and repetitive  “tells” that the US government, at all levels, is unwilling to do anything to increase the world’s oil supply.   As examples, all of the remaining Presidential candidates have refused to drill for oil in ANWR and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee recently caved to environmentalists and refused to expedited leasing for oil shale in Colorado.  

Worse yet, the governement  is giving “tells” that indicate that along with not increasing supplies, they will increase the costs of doing business for US oil companies.   Examples of this are the  Cap and  Trade systems being proposed by the leading Presidential Candidates and  demanding excess profits taxes on oil companies.   Markets know that the impact of these items  is that  impacted companies will either reduce the availability of their products or increase their costs to the consumer.

The worse thing a beginning poker player can do is let their emotions get the better of them and bet irrationally hoping that that will improve the situation.   The US has shown that trait with their multiple demands to Saudi Arabia for increased oil production as well as Congress’s passage of a bill that would allow it to sue OPEC for price setting and limiting supplies.   Both of these are clearly actions of a frustrated player who sees no good options in their current hand.

Until the US starts a new hand and resets the odds by increasing the world oil supply by exploration and development within US territories, the world oil market will continue to hold a royal flush.   If they hold a royal flush and know that we hold 5 unmatched cards, they will continue to bet into the pot and we will see continued increases in the price of oil.

May 21, 2008

Introducing A Roadmap for America’s Future

by @ 18:01. Filed under Politics - National.

Today, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, my Congresscritter) released a plan to deal with the looming financial crisis that is facing the federal government, “A Roadmap for America’s Future. Yesterday, I highlighted a Congressional Budget Office report on the long-term future of the federal government’s finances. To recap yesterday’s analysis; doing either nothing or attempting to match the required spending increases with tax increases was found by the CBO to be unsustainable.

They also did an analysis of a third scenario; the not-yet-released Roadmap. I chose not to discuss that at that time because the details of the plan weren’t out yesterday, and because the CBO limited its analysis to the overall numbers. The CBO found that the then-not-specific spending targets requested by Ryan and the minority on the House Budget Committee is ultimately sustainable, with debt as a percentage of GDP briefly peaking above 100% around 2040 and falling back to a slightly-more-manageable number as deficit spending is replaced by surpluses, and economic growth continuing at a pace not possible otherwise.

On to some of the specifics:

  • “Discretionary” spending as a percentage of GDP is steadily cut from unspecified programs from 9.8% currently to 3.1% by 2082. This one is going to be the hardest to do, but it is absolutely vital to make the numbers work. I’m a bit troubled that there are no specifics mentioned, especially since eliminating pork, which is one of Ryan’s causes, won’t nearly be enough.
  • Privatizing Medicare, with the government providing the amount spent per enrollee (with upward adjustments for inflation, health-care inflation and risk factors, and a downward adjustment for income) to purchase private insurance.
  • Creating a tax credit for those not in Medicare to purchase health insurance, which would be portable and multi-state.
  • Privatizing Social Security.
  • Introduce a simplified income tax, with but 2 rates, a large personal deduction, and other than the health insurance deduction noted above, no other deductions.
  • Replace the corporate income tax with a “business consumption tax” (i.e. VAT). I’m not exactly sold on this, though Ryan notes that unlike the income tax, it can be removed from exports and added to imports.

There’s a lot more than I’ve included here. It truly is a sweeping proposal.

House guarantees higher gas prices – Language warning

by @ 16:56. Filed under Lawsuit madness, Politics - National.

(H/T – Jim Hoft)

No, I’m not going to apologize for the language. This is some seriously fucked-up repugnant shit.

By a vote of 324-84, including the entire Wisconsin delegation in the aye column, the House of Representatives passed a law designed to do two things that will do everything but reduce gas prices:

– Allow anti-trust suits against OPEC.
– Demand the 932nd investigation into price-fixing by Big Oil.

I’ll briefly take the second item first. Because of the jackasses in Congress, including the fucktards in the Senate that refused to open up the Colorado oil shale fields, we’re at the extreme high end of the supply-demand curve. OF COURSE there’s going to be massive speculation when demand outstrips supply, and said speculation is going to leverage prices beyond what it would if there was a better balance between demand and supply. I will point out the 931 previous investigations all found that there was no collusion between the traders to keep the price high; what the fuck is gong to be different with the 932nd?

Berry Laker pretty much predicted the response of the market to this piece of horseshit. I missed the intraday charts, but oil closed at $133.17/barrel and wholesale reformulated gas closed at $3.3965/gallon. I’d say that’s a shot across the bow.

Now to the suing OPEC item. There’s a slight problem with that; they’re sovereign nations not subject to territorial law. When the Justice Department comes a-knocking, what do you suppose the reaction of Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC is going to be? If you think they’ll boost production just because a couple lawyers threatened them, I’ll point out that Saudi Arabia brushed off a friendly request from President Bush a couple weeks ago. When some judge decides to try to seize those countries’ assets in the US, what’s more likely; a capitulation from OPEC or a complete shutoff of the spigot and a “FUCK YOU!”? I’ll remind you that we’re more-dependent on OPEC now than we were the previous two times they shut off the spigot, and they shut it off for more-trivial reasons than all of them having their assets seized.

Then there’s the whole question of enforcement. If we’re serious about forcing the OPEC spigots open, it’s going to take a military operation that makes both theaters of WWII look like a training exercise. Talk about your blood for oil. Oh yeah, that’s going to cost a lot.

I do have to take a moment to ask Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner, two Congresscritters who usually know better, “What the fuck are you thinking by signing onto this smelly piece of shit?” There is nothing, I repeat, nothing that could possibly make this worth voting for.

Taxation without representation, MATC edition

by @ 16:25. Filed under Politics - Milwaukee County, Politics - Wisconsin, Taxes.

(H/T – Owen)

The Milwaukee Area Technical College district wants to jack up budgeted spending by 6.2% over last year’s budget to $333 million, supported by a 4.9% property tax levy increase. Let’s run some numbers:

– Last year, despite budgeting “only” $314 million, they actually spent $331 million because of various unbudgeted construction projects.
– The 4.9% property tax levy increase asked for is, according to the article, mostly for increases in salary and benefits. That would be an additional $1.5 million in wages/salary, $2+ million in health care and $2.5 million in current-year non-health-care fringe benefits (an additional $2 million in increased fringe benefits is related to a new requirement to put future retirement benefits on the books the year they’re accrued instead of the year they’re paid out). Who here outside of government has had a 4.9% increase in wages and benefits?
– Tuition (set by the state) is going up 5.5%.

Jeanette Bell (ex-mayor of West Allis and proven tax-and-spender) had the audacity to claim that MATC cut to the bone. Again, I ask, who outside of government is getting a 4.9% increase in their compensation packages? Say, maybe it’s time to take another look at the $600,000 public safety initiative as well.

The Morning Scramble – 5/21/2008

by @ 8:29. Filed under The Morning Scramble.

Ever since I was a young boy…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpDd2nclh3I[/youtube]

  • Jib explores roadside economics and find the news grim. Given that the manufacturers of cars and personal recreational vehicles are resorting (once again) to very-low-interest long-term financing to get people in the door, I’d have to say the ripple effect is not done yet.
  • Michelle Malkin cranks up the Obama Gaffe Machine.
  • Curt asks whether the Iranian leader Barack Hussein Obama would meet with unconditionally is the puppet Ahmadinejad or head Mad Mullah™ Ayatollah Khamenei.
  • Gopfolk has a two-for in the toon department, taking on both Indiana Obama and the “threatened” polar bear.
  • S. Weasel unleases her latest Photoshops on BHO. I like the second.
  • Eric ties together Hillary Clinton and the Kentucky Derby. Say, wasn’t the lone filly in the Derby put down on the track?
  • Bill Quick says Clinton’s in it to win it back her $11 million in loans. Given they’re almost at the tipping point in delegates, I’m at least somewhat inclined to agree.
  • Tom McMahon applies the 2004 standard to this election. Of course, he forgot to put the partisan spin that makes all the difference, but that’s the point.
  • Ed Morrissey asks whether the split in the party of the Rat is racial or ideological. While it is ideological, the fact that they always go for the candidate that most-approaches 110% compliance (and, by 0.01 percentage points, it’s Obama over Clinton) means that despite the temptation for John McCain to tack even further left, there’s nothing to be gained by doing so.
  • Second dose of the boss – Michelle issued a Shamnesty Alert for the Feinstein/Craig amendment to the GWOT supplemental bill.
  • Speaking of the bill, it’s time for a second dose of Curt – he notes that shamnesty isn’t the only game being played on what was once touted as a “clean” supplemental.
  • Headless Blogger outlines the eight main symptoms of Groupthink. ‘Rats, Islamokazis and Gorebal Warming acolytes (I do repeat myself, though) sure seem to meet the definitions.
  • ChrisG has some fun ticking off some of the spam caught in the Flopping Aces filters. A mild content warning has been issued for the spam.
  • Katie Favazza caught a rather interesting take on biofuels from the UN. The stopped clock that is the UN may not be quite right, but they’re not the 180-degrees wrong they usually are.
  • Elliot asks the salient question after the local paintcatcher (the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for those of you who don’t remember where I am) put out the online call for “victims” of “Big Oil”.
  • Brian answers the question of whether conservatism is dead in the emphatically-negatory. I’ve long struggled with the answer to that question.
  • Second dose of Jib – he tells Milwaukee Brewer manager Ned Yost to either take some heat like a man or get out of the dugout. I’ve made it no secret I’d prefer the latter.
  • A less-than-healthy Kathy Carpenter summoned up the strength to point out one more thing (besides voting) that we need photo IDs for – prescription drugs.

May 20, 2008

Serious financial trouble on the horizon

by @ 20:30. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

(H/T – Greg Mankiw via Brian Faughnan via Charlie Sykes)

At the request of Rep. Paul Ryan, the ranking member on the House Budget Committee, the Congressional Budget Office prepared an analysis of the long-term economic effects of doing absolutely nothing to either spending or revenues (other than making the Bush tax cuts permanent and indexing the AMT), using a very-long-term plan to slow and ultimately eliminate deficit spending, and using tax increases to attempt to match the increases in spending.

Table 1, which outlines the projected changes in spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (SocSecurity/Medicare/Medicaid operate under current law, “discretionary” spending essentially matches the growth in GDP, interest payments on debt increases to match the increased debt), has some scary numbers. By 2030, Medicare and Medicaid together will account for a larger percentage of GDP than Social Security. By 2050, they’ll account for a larger percentage of GDP than “discretionary” spending, interest payments will be the single largest item on the budget at 13.6% of GDP, and total government spending will account for 41.8% of GDP. By 2082, more than 75 cents of every dollar produced by the economy would go to the federal government, with 40 cents of that going to pay interest, and Medicare/Medicaid spending outstripping the rest of the budget.

Bear in mind, that is with no “universal health care”, no adjustments in the Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid formulae, and no adjustment other than the change in GDP in the remainder of government spending.

As for the debt, by (approximately) 2030, it would be more than 100% of GDP, a situation only experienced in and immediately after World War II. Shortly afterward, it will zoom past the all-time high of 110% of GDP, blowing past 290% of GDP by 2050 and 400% of GDP by 2060.

A textbook analysis of the effect of the exploding deficits on the real Gross National Product per person is similarily ugly. The CBO acknowledges that the textbook analysis is too rosy, but by the late 2040s, the GNP/person will begin to drop due to the effects of the deficits. By 2060, and a drop of 17% from the peak, the debt will be so large, the future effects are incalculable.

Regarding the thought that increased taxes would save us, the focus on the blogs I linked to was on the 88% top tax rate and 25% bottom tax rate required to support a non-interest spending rate of 35% of GDP (and the associated 40% of GDP spent on interest). The CBO notes the following regarding that more-than-doubling of the tax rate: “Such tax rates would significantly reduce economic activity and would create serious problems with tax avoidance and tax evasion. Revenues would probably fall significantly short of the amount needed to finance the growth of spending; therefore, tax rates at such levels would probably not be economically feasible.”

The CBO also ran some numbers on the assumption that non-interest government spending would somehow be held at 28% of GDP (the projections for 2050). Even that would necessitate a higher-than-90% increase in taxes; the lowest rate would go up from 10% to 19%, the current 25% rate would go up to 47%, and the top 35% rate (both individual and corporate) would go up to 66%. That tax increase is estimated to reduce real GNP per person by between 5% and 20% from what it would be if the 2007 levels of spending and taxation would be maintained.

Is You Is or Is You Ain’t?

by @ 14:19. Filed under Miscellaneous.

since late last year, the MSM has been gleefully reporting that the US economy was in a recession.   Never mind that the threshold has yet to be crossed, we were in a recession because they said so.   But are we?

“Imminent” recession may cost NYC 59,400 jobs: study

NEW YORK (Reuters) – An imminent recession could cost New York City 59,400 jobs between now and the middle of next year, with the profit-stricken financial sector the “epicenter” of the downturn, a new report said on Tuesday.

An “Imminent” recession? Even Reuters put it in quotes. I thought we were already in a recession? The real fun though is that this recession, which hasn’t happened yet, might, if it does happen cost jobs in NYC.

Let’s see if I can play the “create a catastrophe” game as well as the MSM…

An Imminent recession may cost NYC LOTS of jobs. If LOTS of jobs are not created or perhaps lost in NYC, taxes will possibly DRAMATICALLY decrease for the city. This DRAMATIC decrease in taxes might be enough to cause NYC to be unable to satisfy its general obligations and you may find that NYC DELCARES BANKRUPTCY. If something that dramatic were to occur, well, who knows what the effect on the overall US economy could be. In fact, if bad enough and if it rippled across the US we could find that in the extreme it’s possible that THE US DOLLAR BECOMES WORTHLESS.

But I may be a bit a head of the game:

Although the data are still too ambiguous to determine whether New York City is already in a recession, the report said the “Independent Budget Office is forecasting that a local recession is imminent, if it has not begun already.” No recovery is seen until the second half of 2009

Huh?   The data is too ambiguous to know if they are in a recession but obviously clear enough to show that they will be and, that when they are, it won’t get better until late 2009!

Wait, this sounds vaguely familiar….

In a New Climate Model, Short-Term Cooling in a Warmer World

I guess when you already know how the story will end, the interim plot points are just so many superfluous words.

The Morning Scramble – 5/20/2008

by @ 9:16. Filed under The Morning Scramble.

I hate the chopped, MTV-friendly version of this song, so enjoy the Matrixed version…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrbdCJiqzCE[/youtube]

  • Find out who took one for the team in this week’s Blogs4Bauer Writers’ Strike Substitute episode.
  • Aaron has a more-or-less good update on yesterday’s billing snafu.
  • Ed Morrissey looks into the soul of Minnesota’s own madrassa and finds it a hateful, violent place. I’m shocked, SHOCKED that the Religion of Pieces would beat up a news crew in front of the chilrun.
  • Jim Geraghty asks who can pull off going to Iran.
  • Zip notes that if one is talking about the Nixonian version, it’s not going to be Barack Hussein Obama; the Iranians would see a victory for him as the “conquer(ing) of heart of American society.”
  • Mike has the salient quote regarding BHO – “Talk softly and throw the stick away!”
  • American Pundit explores the rather-sizable skeletons in the closet of one Greg Craig, a top foreign policy advisor for BHO. Do the names Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, John Hinckley and Kofi Annan ring a bell? If not, go read and refresh your memory.
  • Plebian divides the states as the Obamas see them.
  • Cam Edwards cannot believe the rules for the caterers at the DNC convention. No fried foods, no bottled drinks, and all food must be local and/or organic. Glad I didn’t try to cover the recreation of 1968.
  • Ace cancels the coming recession. Presstitutes respond by changing the definition of recession to include 1.5% growth in the economy.
  • Doubleplusundead declares flavored Dew an EPIC FAIL. Why, oh why couldn’t PepsiCo stick with regular Mountain Dew, the Not-Quite-Official Soft Drink of No Runny Eggs (okay, I’ll let your dieting types have Diet Dew).
  • Sean Hackbarth smacks the Governator around for not even considering spending cuts to close California’s budget shortfall. Except for scattered outposts like Nevada and clarion calls from people like Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, the idea of reducing the gubmint appetite is lost on both halves of the bipartisan Party-In-Government.
  • Donna Martinez has the proof of the inevitable step government takes after conservation becomes too successful for the gubmint coffers.
  • SteveF applies the Orwell Farm example to speed cameras. Care to guess who’s refusing to pay?
  • Christian Schneider goes into the memory vault to explain why state Sen. Roger Breske (D) will be the next Commissioner of Railroads. He was the key vote that allowed Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/Potawatomi-For Sale) to put the Potawatomi in my description.
  • Owen channels his inner geek. After all, there are 10 types of people in the world; those who understand binary and those who don’t.

A programming note; the Scramble will not happen next week, at least not with my name attached to it. I will be out of the country on the great walleye hunt north of the border.

Lay Off My Wife

by @ 5:39. Filed under Politics - National.

Barack Obama is complaining that the Republicans are targeting his wife in the general election.

Um, Barack, your wife is campaigning for you:

Michelle Obama campaigned in Durham before heading to Asheville. North Carolina will hold its primary Tuesday.

Not that I agree with Hillary often but, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

If Michelle is campaigning, she’s fair game as she is telling people that they should vote for Barack based on her credibility.

If you want to keep her out of the campaign, keep her off of the campaign trail.   Short of that, welcome to the big leagues.

May 19, 2008

German special forces let another one get away

by @ 17:46. Filed under War on Terror.

(H/T – Zip)

Der Spiegel reports that the German KSK special forces assigned to capture a rather bloodthirsty Taliban commander simply let him walk away. The KSK and the Afghan troops they were working with conducted a brilliant surveillance, right down to the color of his turban. However, when it came time to take him down, they were spotted a couple hundred yards from their target. Because the KSK is under orders to not use lethal force unless fired upon, all the commander had to do was run, which he did.

The larger policy of not firing unless fired upon is causing some serious friction between the Germans and the remainder of the NATO force in Afghanistan. Quoting an unnamed British officer, “The Krauts are allowing the most dangerous people to get away and are in the process increasing the danger for the Afghans and for all foreign forces here.”

No wonder why most of the Taliban “resurgence” has happened in German-controlled areas. I wonder what the Germans would have done had the Soviets decided to charge through the Fulda Gap.

The Morning Scramble – 5/19/2008

by @ 11:29. Filed under The Morning Scramble.

It is still morning, isn’t it?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpf9bP6xdaI[/youtube]
No fancy attempts at putting like items together today; too many and too little time…

  • Attention Wisconsin conservatives. Wisconsin Institute for Leadership is now open for business.
  • Jim Lynch has a baseline for bedrock conservative values. Looks good to me; good enough to use to try to drive him to 10,000 visitors this week.
  • Ed Morrissey does the math on the entitlement liabilities. How many times more do America’s families owe in government debt than they do in personal debt? How does more than 4 sound?
  • Fred Thompson (yes, that Fred Thompson) analyzes why activist judges are activist judges. He put too much thought into it; it’s because they’re lieberals.
  • Second dose of Ed; he delivers a history lesson on why the Soviet Union collapsed to Barack Hussein Obama.
  • Fausta goes a bit further back in her history lesson to BHO.
  • Triple shot of Ed (which makes it a good day); he finds BHO trying to keep his and his wife’s stump speeches out of the political discussion. After all, it’s easier to snow-job the sheeple when they can’t be told how much of an idiot you are.
  • CDR Salamander has today’s edition of Italian conservative hotties. I’m too lazy to dig out the link to the quote from the incoming PM, Silvio Berlusconi about how conservative women are hotter than liberal ones.
  • Vivian Lee bemoans the decline and fall of Presidential politics, SNL edition.
  • Mike forecasts a return to the late 1970s if BHO gets elected. Sweaters and short-shorts (depending on the season) not optional.
  • Jon Ham finds 31,000 examples of (lack-of-)consensus on Gorebal Warming. Still want to call us “Flat Earthers”, Herr Goracle?
  • Charles Johnson found an enemy of BHO’s; Fox News. That’s funny; they’re a semi-ally of mine.
  • Curt delivers a history lesson to Tom Harkin. Say, wasn’t he a Rat Presidential candidate back in the day?
  • Lawhawk notes the disembodied version of M-m-m-m-max bin Laden has effectively declared Iraq lost…for his side. Tell me again why the DhimmiRATs want to give up.
  • Aaron just got a 14-month-old bill for the birth of his son.
  • Just A Grunt has the latest example of why bipartisanship is a bunch of Bravo Sierra. After all, the ‘Rats demand 110% compliance.
  • Second dip for Fausta; she laughs at Hugo “Mini-Castro” Chavez’s call for a Latin America oil-for-food program. It worked sooooo well last time. Say, if Chavez were serious, he would divert those “windfall oil profits” he’s using to help prop up FARC.
  • Lance Burri says the UN is going to investigate racism in, wait for it…wait for it…the United States. Guess the various bands of Islamokazis, the Myamar government, the Serbs, the Tamil Tigers, the ChiComs, and a whole host of other groups are all done with their murderous hating </sarcasm>. Bonus coverage; Ann Althouse titled her post “Deep Doudou”.
  • DrewM counts the ways the remake of “Red Dawn” will suck.
  • Rick Moran breaks out the whine for BHO.
  • Tom McMahon delivers the 4-Block SmackDown to the California Supreme Court.
  • J. Gravelle invites Mike Rowe to do Wisconsin’s dirtiest job; be governor. He couldn’t be any worse than Craps.
  • Uncle Jimbo says, “Don’t be a Dou’Che.” Good advice from a wise man.
  • American Pundit answers why we can’t trust BHO.
  • Bill Quick has a new game – How many times will the New York Times link McCain and Bush in a headline every week?
  • JihadGene riffs with one of my pics from the RPW convention this weekend. Message to the Left; that van’s more road-worthy than your average Feingold/Kerry/Gore-festooned Volvo.
  • Quad damage from Ed; he answers what the “bitter Rust Belt states” have in common; oppressive taxation and massive unions.
  • Gaius has the barely-good landing of the day. That student pilot’s got some mad skillz, even though he has absolutely, positively no situational awareness.
  • Doc notes the Gorebal Warming crowd is going after fat people. I knew it would come to this.

The Scramble is getting out of control. It is out of control and I’ll be lucky to live through it.

May 17, 2008

McCain’s message for the delegates

by @ 13:58. Filed under RPW Convention.

Sorry I don’t have video, but the county signs are in the way.

Click for audio

Live-blogging the floor action

by @ 13:37. Filed under RPW Convention.

Since this portion promises to be quick-hitting, I’ll fire up the CoverItLive….

Off to lunch

by @ 13:02. Filed under RPW Convention.

Because I burned much of the last hour catching up on the speakers to the convention-goers, I have but a half-hour before things start back up. Good thing there’s an Arby’s on the same property.

Mike Duncan speaks to the floor

by @ 12:55. Filed under RPW Convention.

Duncan speaks

Click for audio

Jim Sensenbrenner speaks to the floor

by @ 12:53. Filed under RPW Convention.

Sensenbrenner speaks

Click for audio

Of note, Rep. Sensenbrenner hit Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch rather hard on the budget repair bill.

Paul Ryan speaks to the floor

by @ 12:49. Filed under RPW Convention.

This is actually the second speech from the convention chair; I missed the first. Greg Bump didn’t.

Ryan speaks

Click for audio

J.B. Van Hollen speaks to the floor

by @ 12:45. Filed under RPW Convention.

Time to burn the lunch hour catching up; once we got toward the end, I could not offload the audio fast enough…

Van Hollen speaks

Click for the audio

Scott Walker speaks to the floor

by @ 10:55. Filed under RPW Convention.

Walker speaks

Click for audio

New name for Doyle

by @ 10:44. Filed under RPW Convention.

Because of all the potholes in Wisconsin and his continued raids on the transportation fund meant to fix those potholes, National Committeewoman Mary Buestrin is now calling the governor Pothole Doyle.

I like it.

Reince Priebus speaks to the floor

by @ 10:35. Filed under RPW Convention.

Priebus speaks to floor

Click for the audio

Revisions/extensions (8:52 pm 5/20/2008) – I apologize to those expecting video here. I did not know how long speeches would last, or whether I’d be able to offload the speeches from my camera in time in between speeches, so I simply took a couple pictures while my digital voice recorder caught the audio.

Gard speaks to the county chairs

by @ 10:30. Filed under RPW Convention.

From last night…

Gard speaks

Click here for audio

Back in town

by @ 10:01. Filed under RPW Convention.

I’m a bit late because I had to head back to the bunker overnight, but I’m back in town. Owen had me covered though. Troy Fullerton is also in the room.

I missed out on the row with the power strip, so I’ll have to be brief with my updates. A brief word on the suites last night, Scott Walker’s Milwaukee-themed suite was the best-decorated, while Paul Ryan’s/John Gard’s suite won for best food (stuffed mushrooms and tasty meatballs).

The promised Gard speech will be up shortly.

This Should Be Interesting to Watch

by @ 7:00. Filed under Miscellaneous.

On Thursday, the California Supreme Court ruled that  domestic partnerships  were not an acceptable alternative to marriage and that California would need to allow gay marriages.   The decision overturned a previous voter approved ban on gay marriage.  

Groups opposed to gay marriage indicated that they had enough votes to put the issue of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage on the November ballot.

In a poll done immediately following the announcement, SurveyUSA found some interesting perspectives amongst California Voters.

When asked the question:  

The California Supreme Court has struck down the ban on gay marriage in California. Do you agree? Or disagree with the court’s ruling?

the response was nearly evenly split between those who agreed with the decision and those who disagreed.

However, when asked:  

Do you support? Or do you oppose amending the state constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman?

a majority, 52% said that they supported the amendment. 36% said they opposed the amendment and 12% were still unsure.

What I found particularly interesting was the response split on age. Looking at a split of over or under 50 years old, those supporting, opposing and unsure, nearly mirrored the overall population. Another split that took 18-34 year olds found that even this age group’s response looked similar to the overall population. In fact, the only split that looked different, and slightly so with an error margin of 4.5%, were those 65+ where 62% approved of the amendment, 25% opposed and 13% were undecided.

Each generation is concerned that the one following them doesn’t share their values and will somehow dismantle what was held dear. At least on this issue, it looks like the generations are pretty well aligned. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in California.

May 16, 2008

Wrapping up day 1

by @ 21:26. Filed under RPW Convention.

I’ll have the John Gard speech audio up tomorrow; it takes too long to pull the audio off the recorder, and the hospitality suites (followed by a long drive home; I have a couple things to take care of back at the bunker) are calling.

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