TownHall has a friendly pool going on the results of the Iowa caucii. They’re calling for what percentages the Big 6 Republicans (Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney and Thompson) and the top 3 Democrats (as well as their names; not necessarily Clinton, Edwards and Obama) will get. Since I didn’t want to crowd the thread with my explanations, I’ll do so here. As usual, I’ll start with the Dems because I have a lot less to say about them. Also, much of my Pubbie analysis will come from both Jim Geraghty’s and my analyses of the 2000 Republican caucus final polls and actual results.
Democrats
John Edwards – 30%
Barack Obama – 29%
Hillary Clinton – 28%
What is there to say but things are pretty much evenly divided. The second-choice factor will break to the third wheel.
Republicans
Mike Huckabee – 26% – Pollsters consistently undervalue the evangelical factor, and even though Huckabee is starting to bust, it hasn’t completely gone away from him yet.
Mitt Romney – 24% – He’s the closest thing in this election to the “compassionate conservative” that George Bush was in 2000. That’s worth a couple points off the top.
Fred Thompson – 19% – The pollsters have historically missed somebody entirely in Iowa. Thompson is the closest in ideology to that person in 2000, Steve Forbes. Yeah, I know, Forbes endorsed Giuliani; I haven’t figured that one out yet.
Ron Paul – 10% – The caucus is all about turnout. That works both for and against the Paul campaign, as the “false-flaggers” are going to be at the Dem caucus. However, a not-insigificant number of Iowans like their Nuts; just ask Alan Keyes about his 2000 run.
John McCain – 9% – Ignore all of the “McCain is surging” hype, at least for Iowa. Even though McCain has put some time in and for a time had kissed Iowan hindquarters, he has reverted to type, and so will the Iowans.
Duncan Hunter – 5% – Yes, you heard me right; Duncan Hunter will beat Rudy Giuliani in Iowa. The other reason is because illegal immigration is an issue in Iowa, and Giuliani is on the wrong side of that.
Rudy Giuliani – 5% – The main reason why Giuliani will finish behind Hunter in Iowa is Giuliani put in essentially no time in Iowa.
Alan Keyes – 2% – This isn’t 2000, and there is another Nut running this time.
Revisions/extensions (1:03 pm 1/3/2008) – Let’s see if this will get pinged/tracked back to Right Wing News’ prediction recap
Steve,
I think when you take into account that if you don’t have the minimum support of 15% of the precinct that you have to move to another candidate, you’ll find “the Bag” will not be as close to the Shyster and Oprah’s Choice.
I’ll pick Oprah’s Choice to win the Democrat “bully and intimidate” session.
I think Romney will win the GOP caucus with the Huckleberry fading fast. I don’t know if Fred will pass the Huckleberry, but don’t be surprised if he does.
I expect some Paulbots out, but with things tight over at the Dumbocrats, many of them will go over there to support their Socialist choice. I see Paul at about 6.5%