No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Let the Presidential numbers game commence – updated with official 2007 3Q info

by @ 17:11 on October 18, 2007. Filed under Politics - National.

Update #1 (10:58 am 10/2/2007) – Hillary’s unofficial numbers are in.

Update #2 (2:46 pm 10/3/2007) – So are Ron’s.

Massive revisions/extensions #3 (4:22 pm 10/15/2007) – The numbers are rolling into the FEC, so let’s roll with those.

R&E #4 (6:17 pm 10/15/2007) – Brownback’s, Kucinich’s, and Romney’s numbers are now in to add to Thompsons’ (both Fred and the dearly-departed-from-the-race Tommy), Guiliani’s and Huckabee’s. Guess the rest of the candidates are burning the midnight oil.

Almost the last revision/extension (12:03 am 10/16/2007) – Everybody else is in except Mike Gravel.

R&E #6 (12:34 am 10/16/2007) – Got a couple of the primary/general election splits courtesy Amanda Carpenter.

R/E #7 and 8 (8:32/8:40 am 10/16/2007) – Still no Gravel, but the link to Edwards’ report now goes directly there. Also, McCain fixed a clerical error, so that link goes to the amended report.

I’ve lost count of the revisions and extensions (9:52 am 10/16/2007) – Amanda dug up McCain’s “general-only” numbers, so I’ve updated again.

Last revision/extension unless the campaigns revise their numbers (5:11 pm 10/18/2007) – Gravel’s dog finally coughed up his homework.

When I was out in DC, Kevin told me to watch the burn rates of the various campaigns. With that in mind, the FEC official 3rd-quarter numbers are starting to get posted. Let’s get this party started:

  • Fred Thompson, with the caveat that this filing includes most of June and the starting number is zero – $12,612,567.83 net donations from individuals (after a few refunded donations), $105,425.02 from PACs for a total of $12,717,992.85 in donations. Add in $2,436.11 in interest earned, and subtract $5,606,450.56 in net expenses, and the Thompson campaign had $7,121,744.26 cash on hand at the end of September. Even after subtracting $678,432.01 in debts incurred by the campaign, they are $6,443,312.25 in the black. The burn looks good.
  • Rudy Giuliani – $11,208,318.11 net donations from individuals, $1,000 from the Saratoga County (NY) Republican Committee, and $44,233.80 net from PACs for a total of $11,253,551.91 in donations. Add in $18,326,220.29 in cash on hand on July 1 and $137,265.24 in interest, and then subtract $13,066,846.79 in net expenses and a $365.00 donation to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, and the Giuliani campaign had $16,649,825.65 left on hand at the end of September, with $11.6 million available now. Toss in $169,255.74 in debts owed, and they’re $16,480,569.91 in the black. While the burn rate is above 100%, it’s sustainable through the primaries.
  • Mike Huckabee, who will be taking federal matching funds siphoning off tax dollars once they are released – $1,021,905.35 net donations from individuals, $9,773.74 from PACs for a total of $1,031,679.09. Add in $436,190.66 cash on hand as of July 1 and $1,645.81 in interest, and subtract $818,214.88 in net expenses, and the Huckabee campaign had $651,300.68 cash on hand as of the end of September. Toss in $47,810.16 in debt, and they’re $603,490.52 in the black. Upon financial review, he’s an even darker horse than the polls suggest.
  • Sam Brownback, who will also be taking tax dollars – $808,485.86 in donations from individuals (no refunds), and $8,800.00 from PACs for a total of $817,285.86 in donations. Add in $447,764.39 in cash on hand as of July 1 and $930.48 in interest, and subtract $1,158,943.15 in net expenses (including an unexplained $10.00 “other disbursement”), and the Brownback campaign had $94,653.58 cash on hand at the end of September. Fortunately, they have no debts, though unless that federal cash comes in forthwith, they’ll be in the red in a hurry.
  • Dennis Kucinich – $992,890.82 in net donations from individuals (including a $10.00 refund that appears to be mislabeled as one to a political party committee), $7,750 from PACs, and $10,321.70 from his own pocket for a total of $1,010,962.52 in donations. Add to that $204,171.65 cash on hand as of July 1 and $23.84 in interest (boy, he must have bad banks), and subtract $888,063.99 in net expenses, and the Kucinich campaign had $327,094.02 cash on hand at the end of September. Most unusual for a ‘Rat, the campaign neither has debts nor appears to be planning on feeding at the taxpayer trough for campaign funds.
  • Mitt Romney – $9,459,868.83 net donations from individuals and $73,400 in net donations from PACs for a total of $9,533,268.83 in donations. Add in $8,500,000 in a loan from himself, $12,121,553.85 cash on hand as of July 1, and $76,391.85 in interest, and subtract $21,014,597.17 in net expenses and a $100.00 donation to the Republican Party of Florida, and the Romney campaign had $9,216,517.36 cash on hand as of the end of September. Throw in $17,350,000.00 the campaign owes Romney and they’re in the red. Worse, they’re burning through the cash they do have at an over-100% rate.
  • Christopher Dodd – $1,361,888.01 net donations from individuals and $105,205 from PACs for a total of $1,467,093.01 in donations. Add in $6,378,270.69 cash on hand on July 1 and $30,691.80 in interest, and subtract $4,001,181.36 in net expenses, and the Dodd campaign had $3,874,874.14 cash on hand at the end of September. The good news for them is they are debt-free; the bad is if 3rd-quarter fundraising and spending trends continue and they don’t make a late call for the taxpayer trough, they will be out of cash right about the Iowa caucuses.
  • Hillary Clinton – $25,870,541.05 net donations from individuals (of note, the campaign refunded $1,235,369.12 this past quarter, an amount that Flip terms “large, but lacking”) and $212,805.92 net from PACs for $26,083,346.97 in donations. Add $45,226,832.29 cash on hand July 1 and $425,325.51 in interest, and subtract $21,235,066.67 in net expenses (including a $250.00 item in the “other” category), $13,425.00 in donations to various causes – African American Museum of Iowa, Assumption Greek Orthodox Church in Manchester, NH, Belknap County (New Hampshire) Democratic Committee, Cerro Gordo County (Iowa) Democrats, Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, Democratic Party of Oregon, Elko County (Nevada) Democratic Party, Gopher Hill Festival Society in Ridgeland, South Carolina, Hampton (New Hampshire) Democratic Committee, Jefferson County (Alabama) Democratic Executive Committee, Kent County (Michigan) Democratic Party, New Jersey Democratic State Committee and Tom Harkin for Senate), and $23,000 in “disgorgements” to the US Treasury, and the Clinton campaign had $50,463,013.10 cash on hand at the end of September (I don’t believe that includes any funds specifically for the general election). That amount includes $15 million not available until the general election. After taking into account debt both owed by and to the committee (the latter is $499.28 owed by Neal Hamberg for “press reimbursement”), they’re $48,116,026.13 in the black. And the Dhimms along with their presstitute echo chamber continue to bray that the GOP is the party of the “rich”.
  • Duncan Hunter, who will also be dipping into the taxpayer trough – $486,336.98 in net donations, all from individuals. Add to that $214,501.89 cash on hand on July 1 and a $50,000.00 loan from himself (that’s right, no interest earned on the bank accounts this past quarter), and subtract $616,097.25 in expenses and a $2,000.00 donation to Sydney Hay for Congress, and the Hunter campaign had $132,741.62 cash on hand at the end of September. Even without that $50,000.00 loan, they’re in serious financial trouble, at least until the fed funds kick in.
  • John McCain, who may or may not be dipping into the trough but whose campaign finances almost make Hiliary’s easy to follow – $5,412,958.82 net donations from individuals, $2,500 from a trio of Michigan “party committees” (Cox 5200 Club, Kevin Green for the State House and Nick Smith for Better Government), and $51,445.00 net from other PACs for a total of $5,466,903.82 in donations. Add in $3,224,427.60 cash on hand on July 1 and $12,395.71 in interest, and subtract $5,262,984.06 in net expenses (I think; the summary is quite muddled), and the McCain campaign had $3,488,627.91 cash on hand at the end of September, with only about $1.7 million available now. Toss in $1,730,690.84 in debt, and they’re $1,757,937.07 in the black. The problems continue for the McCain campaign.
  • Ron Paul – $5,197,492.87 in net donations from individuals and $6,725.00 from PACs for a total of $5,204,217.87 in donations. Add $2,354,855.32 cash on hand on July 1 and $24,532.76 in interest, and subtract $2,139,938.90 in net expenses, and the Paul campaign had $5,443,667.05 cash on hand at the end of September. The campaign is in good shape as they’re debt-free, and they do not appear to be dipping into the trough.
  • Joe Biden – $1,688,081.24 net donations from individuals and $36,275.00 from PACs for a total of $1,724,356.24 in donations. Add in $2,764,841.51 cash on hand on July 1 and $50.00 in interest, and subtract $2,601,907.79 in net expenses in the third quarter, and the Biden campaign had $1,886,339.96 cash on hand at the end of September. Toss in $128,210.45 in debt, and they’re $1,758,129.51 in the black. They might make it to Iowa before bleeding red.
  • Bill Richardson – $5,158,291.96 in net individual donations and $71,675.00 from PACs for a total of $5,229,966.96 in donations. Add in $7,129,684.07 cash on hand on July 1 and $23,205.95 in interest, and subtract $6,561,269.16 in expenses, and the Richardson campaign had $5,821,587.82 cash on hand at the end of September. Toss in $75,222.37 in debt, and they’re $5,746,365.45 in the black. Unfortunately for them, they’re in the party of the “poor”.
  • John Edwards – $6,987,595.79 in net donations, all from individuals. Add in $13,511,753.60 cash on hand on July 1 and $36,778.83 in interest, and subtract $8,138,811.95 in net expenses and $267.84 in “press travel reimbursement” to two individuals from DC, and the Edwards campaign had $12,397,048.43 cash on hand at the end of September. If Edwards were a Pubbie, he would be #2 in the pack, especially since there are no debts; instead, he’s a distant third in the ‘Rat money race.
  • Barack Obama, whose filing makes McCain’s look comprehensible – $20,419,120.24 net donations from individuals, $75.00 in net political PAC contributions which appear to be on the wrong line ($100 from Committee to elect Helen Miller HD 49 in Iowa and $25 refund to Recorder of Deeds Campaign Committee in Rock Island, Illinois appear on line 29), and a net $1,100.00 refund to other PACs (including a “misplaced” one to Bear Necessities for $1,000, which appears on line 29) for a total of $20,418,095.24 in donations. Add in $36,263,688.38 cash on hand on July 1 and $379,529.01 in interest, and subtract $20,973,426.83 in net expenses and $695.00 in “miscellaneous” expenses (to Bethany Life Commities in Iowa, Woman’s Equality Day in Iowa and Braian Vanriper in Iowa for “charitable contributions”, the Minnesota DFL Party for “event site rental”, and $20.00 unspecified), and the Obama campaign had $36,087,190.80 cash on hand at the end of September, with about $32 million of that available now. Throw in $1,409,739.64 in debt, and they’re still $34,677,451.16 in the black. While the burn is over 100%, they’re in great shape financially, at least if Hillary inexplicably drops out.
  • Tom Tancredo, who is not only going to be dipping into the trough, but was late according to the FEC – $746,913.87 net donations from donors, $500.00 from PACs, and $125.00 out of his own pocket for a total of $747,538.87 in donations. Add in $552,510.31 cash on hand on July 1 and $30.39 in interest, and subtract $1,190,000.20 in net expenses, and the Tancredo campaign had $110,079.37 cash on hand at the end of September. Throw in $295,603.04 in debt, and they’re $185,523.67 in the red. Colorado, we have a problem.
  • Mike Gravel, who missed the filing deadline for the second straight quarter (the July quarterly, which was amended twice, didn’t show up until July 16th), this time by two days, and looks to be the only Dem to dip into the taxpayer trough – $130,597.94 in donations (all from individuals). Add to that $31,153.45 cash on hand on July 1, and subtract $138,324.84 in expenses and a $5,900 repayment of loans to himself, and the Gravel campaign had $17,526.55 cash on hand at the end of September. Throw in $9,375.98 in “owed” donations from 4 sources, and take out a total of $85,853.05 in debt (including $51,715.73 owed to himself), and they’re seriously in the red.

As an aside, The Other Thompson is still looking for something north of $200,000 so he can pay off his debts and officially close his campaign.

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