Will they be closer to the Iowa version of this or my Wild-Card Weekend lack-of-performance? Only one way to find out, and the vote-counting begins in about 3 hours.
Democrats
Barack Obama – 43%
Hillary Clinton – 32%
John Edwards – 21%
This race is over, folks.
Republicans
John McCain – 35% – Once again, the New Hampshire crowd will go for the maverick who will die in South Carolina.
Mitt Romney – 28% – Romney’s Last Stand will come up short.
Ron Paul – 10% – They love their Nuts in New Hampshire.
Rudy Giuliani – 9% – There is a serious myth about New Hampshire being conservative.
Mike Huckabee – 7% – The dynamic of the last couple of elections is setting up, and unfortunately for Huck, they hate Evangelicals in New England.
Fred Thompson – 4% – See Giuliani’s wrap, and add in the fact that Fred didn’t kiss any hindquarters there.
Duncan Hunter – 4% – It’s officially a “message” campaign for Hunter now.
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I agree that Obama will win big tonight, but the race is far from over. HRC is NOT going to drop out, and she has some big states, not to mention the superdelegates in her corner.
I’ll agree the job gets tougher for her, but not impossible. I don’t think that Obama has the depth to go all the way. He may get the nomination if he humiliates Hillary a couple more times, but he will lose in the general when he has to go up against McCain, Huckabee or Giuliani, one of whom has served 5 times as long in the Senate, and two who have serious administrative experience. His record and policies won’t pass scrutiny once the rockstar status starts to fade, which Hillary’s hit men Carville and Begala will startto do. At the end of the day, the Dems will be bitterly divided after this war is over.
I know.. the experience argument hasn’t worked for Hillary, but that’s because she has no real experience, having only served two more years in the Senate than Obama… But the the GOPs i mentioned have alot of experience.
The only one who might lose to Obama in the general is Romney. he and Hillary have much in ommon: Namely, one, they are not likeable… two, they are contrived and not authentic, and three, will not even go to the bathroom without consulting a focus Group.
Finally the high turnout doesn’t worry me for McCain’s sake.. It’s the very young whpo are turning out for Obama, othe independents who were inclined to go for McCain will likely do so .
My predictions are posted on my blog http://labelfreezone.blogspot.com