No Runny Eggs

(H/Ts – Owen and WisPolitics)

Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch released a memo from the LFB comparing spending increases over the FY2007 portion of budget doubled for the various budget plans. The middle chart, showing just the General Purpose Revenue increases without the new segergated funds that would have been created in the first 3 proposals (the governor’s original, the Joint Finance Committee, and the Senate’s), is completely worthless because those new segergated funds disappeared starting with the Assembly’s proposal, but allow me to repost the relevant numbers from the other two charts for you:

All spending, which includes all that cash from the federal taxpayer trough (FY2007 base times 2 – $53,673,360,200):
– Governor’s original plan – An increase of $4,563,146,100, for a 2-year percentage of 8.5% and an annualized percentage of 4.2%.
– JFC’s plan – $4,440,511,200, 8.3% over 2 years, 4.1% annualized.
– Senate’s plan (with Healthy-and-Depopulated Wisconsin) – $12,433,308,700 (and the $7,600,000,000 portion that would have been spent on H&PW is just for the last 6 months), 23.2% over 2 years, 11.0% annualized.
– Assembly’s plan – $2,628,330,200, 4.9% over 2 years, 2.4% annualized.
– Doyle’s first revision (with additions made by the Senate, including the transportation budget not included in Doyle’s revision) – $4,452,896,700, 8.3% over 2 years, 4.1% annualized.
– The Munich Acco…er, Grand Compromise – $3,561,071,400, 6.6% over 2 years, 3.2% annualized

Spending from GPR + “new SEG” funds, which are funds that directly to Madison, and which does not and would not include H&DW (FY2007 base times 2 – $26,622,083,800):
NOT in the memo and included just for comparison because this deals with spending, not taxation – Growth in taxation without a single vote for “new” taxes or fees (to the nearest $100 million) – $1,200,000,000, 4.5% over 2 years, 2.2% annualized.
– Governor’s original plan – $1,633,079,100, 6.1% over 2 years, 3.0% annualized.
– JFC’s plan – $1,618,446,400, 6.1% over 2 years, 3.0% annualized.
– Senate’s plan (again, H&PW is documented above and not here) – $1,776,652,900, 6.7% over 2 years, 3.3% annualized.
– Assembly’s plan – $1,193,792,900, 4.5% over 2 years, 2.2% annualized.
– Doyle’s first revision (with additions made by the Senate, including the transportation budget not included in Doyle’s revision) – $1,614,013,700, 6.1% over 2 years, 3.0% annualized.
– The Munich Acco…er, Grand Compromise – $1,593,003,100 – 6.0% over 2 years, 3.0% annualized.

I resubmit that it is an all-but-complete win for Doyle and the ‘Rats. While it is true that total spending is significantly less than what was originally proposed by both Doyle and the JFC, almost all of that is a result of taking less from the taxpayers of the entire country. The spending of Wisconsin taxpayer dollars is only $25,413,300 less than what came out of the Joint Finance Committee and $40,046,000 less than what Doyle wanted in the first place. To contrast, that spending is $399,210,200 more than what the Assembly wanted.

My calculator shows that Doyle got 90.9% of the difference. That, combined with both the present and future tax increases to pay for the excesses of Doyle’s spending in this and previous budgets, gives the ‘Rats a knockout win, and that’s before the worse-than-worthless KRM is added in.

Revisions/extensions (12:40 am 10/24/2007) – Forgot a few zeroes in the H&DW cost.

Random10 points out that there appears to be a serious deal-breaker, at least if anybody knows the track record of one Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/Potawatomi-For Sale) – this budget agreement has no guarantee, at least from what I’ve seen, that Doyle won’t use his veto pen to strip out items such as the latest tax “freeze” or the prohibition of the offering of in-state tuition rates to illegal aliens.

While R10 would be content with a videotape, I want it in writing, notarized, and actionable if broken.

I also want a guarantee that any additional spending or additional taxes that gets added to the budget, like the KRM monster that Kreuser is still pushing for, will get line-itemed out in toto.

Revisions/extensions (5:36 pm 10/23/2007) – Upon reflection, and a bit of a “nudge” from Jib, I’ve taken out a cheap shot on those of you north of Hwy. 10. I apologize for that.

Let’s review the Cliff Notes version from today’s Journal Sentinel:

The compromise:

• Kills a proposed tax on hospitals, which dozens of Assembly Republicans opposed – even after the state’s hospitals endorsed it. After fighting it for months, hospitals began pushing for it this month, calling it the only way they would get the first Medicaid rate increase in more than 10 years. The tax would have been more than offset by additional federal dollars.

Good. I do have a note for Messrs. Walters and Marley and Ms. Forster – those “additional federal dollars” are also tax dollars; they just come from a different unit of government.

• Kills a new $233 million tax on oil companies, which Doyle had proposed to force them to help pay for the state’s highways and bridges.

Again, good. Not only does it save Wisconsin taxpayers $233 million $466 million (or however much was collected times two when it would have received the stake through the heart) in new taxes (while “Big Oil” would have been collecting said cash because they would have found a way to pass it along, they likely would also have won a full refund because they would have been “prohibited” from passing it along), but it saves us untold milllions that would have been turned around into Craps’ and the Rats’ pockets.

• Raises a tax credit to offset higher property taxes for schools resulting from the certification of last year’s state aid levels to local school districts. Schools are likely to raise property taxes higher than usual this year because the state budget is so late.

And thus it ensures higher taxes for schools, rather than merely making it likely. I was very uncomfortable with the Pubbies’ line of $600 million in tax hikes if their earlier capitulation on school funding wasn’t passed by the Senate.

• Raises the current 77-cent tax on a pack of cigarettes by $1 to pay for health care costs. Doyle had recommended an increase of $1.25.

No wonder why the Assembly ‘Rats were included in negotiations; RINO P-I-G member Huebsch is going to need their votes to carry the day. Of note, the Senate Pubbies were absent from the table because the Senate ‘Rats have no problem whatsover with raising taxes.

• Increases the one-time $175 million transfer from the fund that helps pay legal awards in medical malpractice cases by at least $25 million. The transfer will be fought in a lawsuit to be filed by the Wisconsin Medical Society – a suit that may take years to resolve.

With a likely loss for the state, and $200 million-plus-interest tax increase upon said loss. Nothing like enriching lawyers, who will, as noted above, turn right around and enrich the ‘Rats.

• Includes one of Doyle’s top priorities, the Wisconsin Covenant, which guarantees eighth-grade students the ability to enroll in a Wisconsin college if they take college-prep courses in high school, maintain a B average and stay out of trouble. No one knows what the Covenant will cost when students who have already signed up for the program enroll in the state’s colleges and universities.

Let’s repeat that last line – No one knows what the Covenant will cost when students who have already signed up for the program enroll in the state’s colleges and universities. Allow me to put a preliminary, back-of-the-envelope price tag on that. Since I expect no less than the current total incoming freshman class between the UW system and the technical colleges to take advantage of this deal (worth roughly $43,000 to those who signed that formerly-worthless piece of paper the last month or so and who plan on a 4-year education, at an annual increase of 6% from the $7,600 annual cost of tuition), there will not be any room for those willing to pay, whether in-state or out-of-state. I haven’t been able to collate the various technical colleges’ tuition intake, nor have I been able to separate out the undergrad-vice-graduate portions of the UW tuition intake, but let’s use the UW total tuition intake as an approximation. For the 2006-07 school year, that was estimated to be roughly $865,000,000. Once the “Covenant” fully kicks in for the 2015-16 school year, we’ll be on the hook for an additional $1,379,000,000 that year. That will, like any Hugh Gubmint program, likely be way on the low side.

• Expands health care coverage to almost all Wisconsin children through the new BadgerCare Plus program.

Out goes CubaCare, in comes CubaCare Jr. We’re about to find out why the expansion of the federal S-CHIP was sunk the hard way.

• Includes $21 million in additional school aid for low-income districts – $17 million of which would go Milwaukee Public Schools. MPS would have to use the money to partially offset property taxes it levies for the school choice program. It would also give MPS $10 million for math and science classes.

And the money-laundering known as “revenue sharing” continues not only unabated, but ever larger.

• Puts a 2% limit on increases in 2008 and ’09 property tax levies for cities, towns and villages, or limits increases to the rate of actual growth, whichever is higher.

Un-fragging-believable; a win on property taxes. However, I won’t believe it until the ink is dry on the governor’s signature on the bill, and there aren’t any lines through that provision, and that’s assuming it’s not as full of holes as the previous Craps anti-freeze. The bad news; hold onto your wallets; there isn’t even the Craps anti-freeze for the 2007 property tax bills, and that’s the baseline for the 2008 and 2009 ones.

• Reduces spending from Doyle’s original proposal by more than $400 million.

Dirty little secret; it still pushes spending up by $4.6 billion over the last budget. As Dad29 pointed out, that’s a 2-year increase in taxes, both state and federal, of 8%, or 3.92% per year. How many of you in the private, non-union sector have been getting 3.92% raises? Bueller? Bueller?

With roughly half the budget coming from the trough known as federal taxpayers, that’s a $2.3 billion state tax increase, with $1 billion in brand-new state taxes. Allow me to repeat that last prase – $1 billion in brand-new state taxes. Judy Robson got exactly what she demanded.

• Funds free tuition for veterans, provides $32 million in new financial aid to University of Wisconsin System students and backs the system’s plan to expand enrollment. Killed, however, would be a plan to provide in-state tuition for illegal immigrants who graduate from Wisconsin high schools, as Doyle had wanted.

It’s a mish-mash of items. First, I could’ve swore the GI Bill dealt with with tuition for veterans, but if I’m off, I’m willing to give them free tuition. Second; guess that “Covenant” starts a bit early. Third, if I thought expanded enrollment wouldn’t involve more and more tax dollars going to the UW system, I could see the need. Finally, the question of the day is, will the “Covenant” also be illegal-alien-free?

• Increases the annual vehicle registration fee by $20, to $75, and raises registration fees for large commercial trucks.

Gotta keep on building those 4-lane bypasses of every Podunk last north-Wisconsin town </sarcasm>

• Drops a Democratic plan to extend the Metra commuter rail line from Kenosha to Milwaukee. But a last-minute effort to revive the rail-line plan will be made Monday, when a committee of legislative leaders votes on the deal, Kreuser said.

Allow me to introduce Smith & Wesson to silver bullets, and then introduce said bullets to the KRM disaster-in-waiting.

• Increases bonds to preserve recreational lands to $85 million a year, up from $60 million. The budget also will give the Legislature oversight of any land purchases – authority it lost in 2003.

I would like to see how that “oversight” is written before I comment on the last part. The first part, frankly, sucks, as it is an automatic property-tax increase.

I do note that nobody has yet seen the actual bill, so I can’t comment on how loosely certain provisions that currently appear to be Pubbie “wins” are written. I also note that there is no promise from Doyle to not wield his Frankenstein veto pen to take out items such as the “freeze”. Wendy already applied it to his pledge from his first state of the state address.

One thing the Journtinel doesn’t report; the pork Doyle threw in to try to get his previous plan past the Assembly is still there, including Brett Davis’ soybean crusher.

In sum, the Pubbies got rolled (again). For 30 pieces of silver and a few meaningless words, they’re signing onto a $2,300,000,000 tax increase now and untold billions down the road through unconsciable increases in the size of state gubmint. Everybody who votes for this budget, RINO, RepubicRAT or DemocRAT, needs to be ousted. If said Leggie signed a no-tax-increase pledge, whether it be Club For Growth’s very restrictive one, Owen’s less-restrictive one, or somebody else’s, the recall window is now open.

There is a mild language warning on this because of the oh-so-tolerant lieberal protestors.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfJCoAdwVyY[/youtube]

While I finish prepping the pics and the videos (that’s right, my little camera does a passable job with the video), I may as well get a little bit more in-depth.

Ignoring the advice of AFP to hop the bus, mainly because there was a side trip I wanted to take after the rally, I rolled into downtown Madison right about 10 am. As a side benefit, I got to listen to Charlie and Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch talk about the Jim “Craps” Doyle plan to unnecessarily shut down state government to try to force the issue.

Since the pre-rally point was several miles from the Capitol, I needed to take the “fine” Madistan mass transit. The bus was running about 10 minutes late, but that’s no excuse to just blow past the stop. Thankfully, the gridlock that is Madistan allowed me to catch up. It wasn’t like the bus was overloaded; there were maybe 8 on the bus.

Anyway, I made it to the pre-rally point, and had some delicious pulled pork. While there, I ran into Fred, the Unreal one, silent E, and Kathy. I also met RDW field agent #2, and some Milwaukee County Pubbies.

After some refreshments, we hopped the buses to the Capitol. The teat-sucking squealers were already there waiting for us (Messrs. Schneider and Fraley, both of whom I missed, have the details). Whilst waiting for high noon, the very lovely and talented Jenna dropped in, along with Lance Burri, Owen, Leah Vukmir, Rich Zipperer, Bill Kramer and many others I missed. I somehow missed Leslie, the OTB Chris, and Dad29.

Anyway, high noon rolled in, and the fun commenced. We started off with the emcee (my memory’s a bit hazy on his name), who reached out across the police line. Those on the other side of the line, being the teat-sucking, squealing oh-so-tolerant lieberals they are, booed him.

AFP president Tim Phillips was up next, and he encouraged us to keep on fighting the good fight. Mark Block was up next and pointed out most of the people up on the stage. There are some considerate public employees.

I missed who the next speaker was, but I do have a pic that will pop up when I’m to the point of posting them. Fred followed up; I’ll let the video speak for him when I have it up.

Pat Snyder, from WSAU in Wausau, proved that there are conservatives on the air “north of Highway 10”. He also pointed out that up in Wausau, the tax issue is a bipartisan one.

Owen drew the most vitriol from the teat-suckers; the video (again, once it’s up) will prove that.

Rience Priebus, hammering home the theme of the day, challenged Doyle to live up to his campaign promise. After him, somebody from New Berlin (again, I’m horrid with the names that weren’t in the program) came up with 7,000 or so postcards urging Doyle to live up to his campaign promise.

Vicki McKenna closed things off with a twist; a pig toss.

Once everybody was done speaking, the teat-suckers started milling in. While others reported they got hassled, I managed to get out of there completely unscathed.

It was good to get together with several hundred fellow taxpayers to deliver a simple message Jim “Craps” Doyle himself delivered not too long ago – NO MORE TAXES! Not even the teat-sucking squealers of AFSCME, who couldn’t be bothered to actually show up to work, and who were eternally and vulgarly ungrateful, couldn’t dampen the mood.

Since I made a few side trips on the way home, and I have somewhere to be in a few minutes, I’ll have the pics and the video of Fred’s and Owen’s speeches up either later tonight or early tomorrow.

(H/Ts – Owen and Peter)

The Assembly, on a bipartisan 54-45 vote, voted against the latest attempty by Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/Potawatomi-For Sale) to jack up Wisconsin’s taxes. That was despite Craps’ best efforts to buy the vote. Nice to see some things aren’t for sale in Madison.

A special “Huzzah” goes out to the 3 Dems that crossed the aisle, Amy Sue Vruwink, Sheldon Wasserman, and Bob Ziegelbauer (who actually “paired” his nay with another’s aye).

A very-special “I hope you lose your next election” to RepubicRAT Brett Davis. May you not get that thirty pieces of silv…er, $4 million soybean crusher from Craps.

As for how the presstitutes are reporting this, Jessica points out the Journtinel pooh-poohed Ziegelbauer’s “pairing”.

My friends at AFP-Wisconsin are holding a Taxpayer Rally at the State Capitol on the 17th:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – October 9, 2007 Contact: Mark Block, (414) 475-2975

Americans for Prosperity to Hold -Defend Wisconsin-Taxpayer Rally- at State Capitol

Milwaukee -The free-market grassroots group Americans for Prosperity (AFP) will hold a citizen rally – Defend Wisconsin – Taxpayer Rally-

WHAT: Defend Wisconsin-Taxpayer Rally – to urge Wisconsin Legislators to pass a state budget with no tax increases.

WHO:

Mark Block, Wisconsin Director, Americans for Prosperity
Vicki McKenna, Radio Talk Show Host, WISN, Milwaukee and WIBA, Madison
Reince Priebus, Chairman, Republican Party of Wisconsin
Owen Robinson, Boots and Sabers
Pat Snyder, Radio Talk Show Host, WSAU, Wausau
Fred Dooley, The Real Debate

WHEN: 12:00 Noon; Wednesday, October 17, 2007

WHERE: Wisconsin State Capitol,
King Street Entrance,
Madison, WI

Transportation Provided: Register at afpwi.org
LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Wausau, Green Bay, Manitowoc, Racine, Waukesha and more.

Pre-Rally:

What: Meeting place prior to State Capitol Rally

Where: Kavanaugh’s Esquire Club, 1025 North Sherman Avenue, Madison, WI

When: 10:30 a.m., Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Transportation Provided: Register at www.afpwi.org

Eau Claire, Wausau, Green Bay, Manitowoc, Racine, Waukesha, La Crosse

Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is the nation’s premier grassroots organization committed to advancing every individual’s right to economic freedom and opportunity. AFP believes reducing the size and scope of government is the best safeguard to ensuring individual productivity and prosperity for all Americans. AFP educates and engages citizens in support of restraining state and federal government growth, and returning government to its constitutional limits. For more information, visit www.americansforprosperity.org

BE THERE!

Despite the fact that there is no budget crisis because revenues and spending continues at the rates in the budget (thus automatically increasing the amount available for Medicaid, as well as increasing the amount collected by other various taxes), and the fact there won’t be a Medicaid funding “crisis” until 2009, Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/Potawatomi-For Sale) has ordered a 20% reduction in Medicaid spending, with plans to spread the self-inflicted pain even further if he doesn’t get the doubling of taxes that he and the Legislative ‘Rats want. If I were healthier, I might have beat Dad29 to the proper analysis:

Which, of course, is the reality. It’s not a question of running short of funds. It’s a question of not getting his way.

So he stamps his foot and pouts.

That’s a helluva way to govern, Darth.

Most of the attacks on revenue limits to the schools have been on the belt-tightening forced upon districts that are shrinking. A story in today’s Milwaukee Journal Sentinel launches a new front; they find that districts that are have increasing enrollment can’t unilaterally increase taxes and spending by an unlimited amount. They even trot out a line from one of the myriad of front groups for the teachers’ union and school districts, the Institute for Wisconsin’s Future – “One of its criticisms is that under the revenue caps, the amount of money a district may raise from year to year is based largely on enrollment, without regard to cost increases for the services that districts provide.”

Ignoring the fact that school districts can and often do bust the caps with voter approval, there is a basic lie in that statement; there is an automatic adjustment for cost increases in the cap. It may or may not be enough for the teat-suckers of WEAC, MEA and WEA Trust, but it is there.

Even though Wisconsin’s forefathers planned for the likelyhood of an unbreakable impasse in the adoption of a new biennial budget by decreeing that state taxing and spending continues at the levels of the previous budget in that event, the not-so-little piggies known as municipal politicans are whining that they don’t know whether they can bust open the tax-and-spend spigot. The editorial-passing-as-a-story money quote: “The general consensus, however, appears to be this: The earlier the resolution, the better. But only if the resolution is a good one.”

One of the nice things about taking those (almost) twice-monthly trips to Madistan for the Center Right Coalition meetings is I find out some very interesting stuff. Case in point; on my desk is the executive summary of Michael Best & Friedrich LLP’s analysis of the Gross Receipts Tax proposal. Lest you think that just because the firm is Pubbie-friendly, it is fatally-tainted, Peg Lautenschlager came to the same conclusion.

In any case, on with a very brief summary-of-a-summary from someone who does not have legal training. There are three Constitutional faults that Michael Best & Friedrich found:

• It violates the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution because the anti-pass through provision impermissibly insulates Wisconsin and only Wisconsin consumers from the effects of the tax. Indeed, the only federal case made under the Commerce Clause against an anti-pass through tax was ruled in favor of the taxed industry.
• It likely violates the Commerce Clause and the Equal Protection Clauses of both the state and US Constitutions because it exempts Wisconsin-produced corn-a-hole and biodiesel. Morever, by basing it on profits, there is no basis for not including other industries with “high” profit margins.
• Given that even the Department of Revenue has conceded that it can’t tell what price fluctuations would be “legal” versus “illegal”, it likely violates the Due Process Clauses of both the state and US Constitutions.

So, what happens when the US Supreme Court strikes this down in 6 or so years? First, let me explain why it would be SCOTUS, and why it would be about 6 years. Because it involves state tax law, it must go through the state appeals process first, which in this case is the DOR, the Wisconsin Tax Appeals Commission, the Circuit Court, the Court of Appeals and the state Supreme Court. Given that Doyle controls the first two and the last 3 are all elected, it is rather unlikely that members of those 6 organizations will risk the wrath of Doyle or the public.

Now, let’s go forward those 6 years. Every penny of that tax collected would need to be repaid in full and immediately. Doyle’s office estimated that would be $912 million, and they also estimated that gasoline would be roughly $2.50/gallon into perpetuity. Given that gasoline hasn’t been $2.50/gallon for several months, and shows no sign of ever returning to that level, a fairer estimate would be somewhere north of $1 billion.

But wait, it gets worse. State law provides that there is a 9% annual interest paid on a refunded tax. Using that $912 million as a base, Michael Best & Friedrich estimated that penalty would be $330 million. As if that weren’t enough, the state would be liable for 6 years’ worth of legal fees.

Where would all that money go? It wouldn’t be going back to the individual taxpayers of the state. Remember; according to Craps and the ‘Rats, we wouldn’t be “paying” this. Rather, the refund and the interest would be going into the pockets of “Big Oil”, while the lawyers would be taking their cut.

Where would that money come from? Knowing Doyle’s penchant for spending every penny twice, not one cent of that collected tax would be in the coffers when the refund bill comes due, much less the money for the interest and lawyers’ fees. Yipee; </sarcasm> another massive tax increase to pay for one that backfired.

Jessica McBride runs with a crAP dispatch that lambastes the Pubbies for passing a budget that the Legislative Fiscal Bureau says raises fees by $256 million and features a heap of ‘Rats piling on (while ignoring the billions-upon-billions the ‘Rats are increasing taxes and fees) and offers a grand compromise – “… how about if they agree to a budget that strips out the tax increases AND fee hikes?”

There are a lot of bloggers taking whacks at the pinata of a plan the Senate ‘Rats spewed forth into the budget (too many to link to here; just search the Cheddarsphere). With a big tip of the hat to the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance and their presentation at the July 11th Center-Right Coalition, here’s a couple more whacks:

– First, the alleged $15.2 billion cost for FY2009 is a willful underestimation. “Healthy” (ADDtET) Wisconsin (henceforth refered to as CubaCare Wisconsin because it is shorter) uses the existing health plan as its base (with certain additions and no deletions). The state currently spends somewhere north of $7,000 per participant; yet CubaCare Wisconsin assumes that it would pay just over $4,000 per participant. I know there’s such a thing as volume discounts; however, the state is pretty close to maxed out on that benefit.

Oh, and I didn’t touch on the fact that those teachers insured through WEA Health will keep their level of coverage while “paying” the same amount as everybody else. Guess I just did, and the reason why I put “paying” in quotes is because they and other public employees, and only that group can have their employer (specifically government) pay the 4% that is supposed to be the employees’ contribution without either a decrease in take-home pay or an increase in gross pay (and thus an increase in income taxes). Guess CubaCare Wisconsin isn’t going to come in under budget.

– Second, this is a time bomb waiting to happen. Do note that, as of the end of June, there had not been any analysis by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, which is required of any item that spends state money. The AARP-funded study by the Lewin Group, which assumed that $15.2 billion initial cost would hold, estimated that health-care costs would go up by 6.5% annually, which is actually less than the 8% annual increase of the cost of the state employee plan. Meanwhile, according to the Department of Revenue, wages, and thus the increase in revenues from the taxes intended to pay for this monster, are expected to go up only by 4.6% annually.

Let’s run the numbers, and remember that, while the rate on employees is a total of 14% (10% from the private employers, 4% from the employee except for government employees and 14% from government-paid wages), since the rate on the self-employed is 10%, and that income not subject to the Social Security tax is captured to the tune of 10%, the revenue is “just” a ballpark number (probably a bit high based on the likelyhood that the ‘Rats wouldn’t be bright enough to create a temporary surplus and the certainty that the bipartisan P-I-G wouldn’t have enough self-restraint to keep their mitts off said temporary surplus):

(Numbers in $billion)
                 Taxes    Cost   Cost
Year  SS Wages    @14%   +6.5%  +8.0%
----  --------  -------  -----  -----
2009    115.0    16.1    15.2   15.2
2010    120.8    16.8    16.2   16.4
2011    126.1    17.6    17.2   17.7
2012    131.8    18.4    18.4   19.1
2013    137.9    19.2    19.6   20.7
2014    144.2    20.1    20.8   22.3
2015    150.8    21.0    22.2   24.1
2016    157.6    22.0    23.6   26.1
2017    164.8    23.0    25.2   28.1

Assuming the “lower” 6.5% increase in health care costs, and assuming that the “ballpark” revenue isn’t high, the program flips into a yearly deficit by 2013 and an overall deficit by 2015. Bump up the increase to the recent history of the state employee health care, and the yearly deficits begin in 2011 and the overall deficit happens in 2012. Since the ‘Rats are starting to take heat for robbing bus systems across the state to pay for the Kenosha-to-Milwaukee choo-choo, I doubt they’ll take the lower-spending route to balance the budget.

I’m surprised that the Journtinel didn’t split this into umpteen stories instead of the two they did split it into, or do this in a day-by-day drumbeat. Let’s explode this one by one:

– “Wah! Milwaukee just can’t spend less than it did last year!” – NRE has issued a Crying River Flood Warning for Milwaukee City Hall and Milwaukee Public Schools headquarters. Since Milwaukee Public Schools doesn’t maintain old budgets online, let’s take a look at the city of Milwaukee budget between FY2003 (the year before the first Doyle budget took effect) and FY2006 (the last year population estimates are available for proper comparison). The city conveniently has a page on their site that summarizes the main budget numbers between FY1988 and FY2006, and that includes not only the amount of total authorized spending (the “Total City budget” line), but the amount of state shared revenue. Despite a drop in state revenue from $249,921,000 in FY2003 to $239,725,000 in FY2006 ($10,196,000 for the math-challenged among you, or 4.08%), and a drop in population from 585,059 in July 2003 (the day after FY 2003 ended) to 573,358 in July 2006 (11,701, or 2.00%), total spending increased from $1,062,827,429 in FY2003 to $1,211,186,519 in FY2006 ($148,359,090, or 13.96%). Inflation was 9.57% over the same period, so if one were to factor both inflation and population loss, if spending were to have remained constant per person, Milwaukee should have increased spending by only 7.38%. Instead, spending increases outstripped the combined effects of inflation and population loss at a 1.61% annual rate.

Somehow, I doubt that MPS showed any more restraint than the city between 2003 and 2006, and I know neither showed restraint last year. They could both use a trim, and a 3.5% trim to put them back at per-taxpayer/per-student FY2006 levels is a good start.

Oh, and Milk Carton. Where were you and your concern for the taxpayers of Milwaukee when your buddy Craps slashed and burned shared revenue to Milwaukee County to try and punish Scott Walker as he was contempating a gubernatorial run? Oh that’s right; unlike you, Walker knows how to live within his means, even as he gets sabotaged by a tax-and-spend County Board.

– “Wah! Without massive state subsidies, we won’t have Ambert Alerts anymore!” – NRE has issued a Crying River Flood Warning for Wisconsin Public Radio and a Crying River Flood Watch for Dane County Public Safety Communications Center. While WPR is currently the main dissemination source of statewide activations of the Emergency Alert System, the main EAS system is designed to be quite robust. Indeed, WTMJ-AM/WKTI-FM (Milwaukee’s Local Primary-1 stations) have the same direct link to the state Emergency Operations Center, which creates the statewide activation of the EAS outside of Amber Alerts, that the WPR stations that are the State Relay stations have through WPR’s dedicated monitoring studio (I don’t know if Rhinelander’s SR station, a non-WPR station, has that link to WPR’s monitoring studio yet). All the other LP-1 and LP-2 stations monitor WTMJ, either through a dedicated ISDN line or through a satellite, and have a spare monitoring slot that can be hooked into the state EOC.

Why the lawmakers chose to bypass the state EOC and create a separate activation authority for Amber Alerts, and incorporate only one dissemination channel through WPR, is beyond a sane person’s comprehension. Further, seeing that there already is one private radio station that is a SR station, there needs to be no requirement that the remainder remain welfare radio stations.

– “Wah! We won’t be able to make UWM/Wisconsin State University into a rival for the Madistan campus!” – NRE has issued a Crying River Flood Warning for UWM. News flash; we can’t afford two huge public universities, especially with UWM undercutting UW-Madison’s tuition.

– “Wah! We can’t possibly make those getting into the most-lucrative business in Wisconsin pay anything approaching what their education is worth!” – NRE has issued a Crying River Flood Warning for the University of Wisconsin Law School. Lawyers, especially in Craps’ Wisconsin, stand to make a mint. Why in the hell can’t they pay $17,000 in tuition? And don’t give me the “It would make Madistan’s law school among the most-expensive in the Big 10.” Last time I checked, Northwestern was the only private university in the Big 10.

– “Wah! We can’t possibly keep overpaying nutjob lecturers and offering everybody backup jobs on just a 3.1% annual increase in taxpayer subsidies!” – NRE has issued a Crying River Flood Warning for the entire University of Wisconsin system. In a high-tax, low-income state, we can’t afford the 8.7% annual increase in the subsidy to the money pit known as the UW system the ‘Rats want.

Revisions/extensions (10:17 pm 7/13/2007) – Corrected something related to how the EAS operates.

I’m a bit late to this party, but the Tax Foundation ran some interesting numbers on just the $15.2 billion-in-FY-2009 tax increase. I don’t particularily like the first chart they produced that had the tax increase representing 50% of the FY-2009 general fund revenue because it understates the actual increase. They also ignored the $1.6 billion increase in the rest of the taxes. Let’s redo that chart of top percentage tax increases between 2000 and 2006 (plus Wisconsin) to reflect the percentage increase and both the total tax increase passed by the state Senate and the portion that isn’t going to CubaCare:

(N/A) – Wisconsin proposes an increase in taxes by 110.5% in 2009 with the full monty tax increase
#1 – Nevada increased taxes by 16.4% in 2004
#2 – New Hampshire increased taxes by 15.7% in 2000
#3 – Tennessee increased taxes by 13.3% in 2003
#4 – Nevada increased taxes (again) by 11.6% in 2005 (making for a 29.9% increase from 2003 to 2005)
#5 – Indiana increased taxes by 11.1% in 2003
(N/A) – Wisconsin proposes an increase in taxes by 10.5% in 2009 with CubaCare taken out (essentially the Doyle increase)
#6 – Idaho increased taxes 9.7% in 2004
#7 – New Hampshire increased taxes by 8.1% in 2001 (making for a 25.1% increase from 1999 to 2001)
#8 – Oregon increased taxes by 8.1% in 2004
#9 – New York increased taxes by 6.6% in 2004
#10 – Ohio increased taxes by 6.5% in 2004

It gets worse. Again, the Tax Foundation neglected to take the Doyle increase into consideration when they considered the increase as a percentage of the gross state product, so let’s do that:
(N/A) – Wisconsin proposes a tax increase equal to 6.632% of the GSP in 2009 with the full monty increase
(N/A) – Wisconsin proposes a tax increase equal to 0.632% of the GSP in 2009 with just the Doyle increases
The previous #1 – Indiana passed a tax increase equal to 0.446% of the GSP in 2003

You read that one right kids. Even if you took out CubaCare, Wisconsin would still have the largest tax increase as a percentage of the economy in the recent history of the country. Specifically, it would be 42% larger than the next-largest tax increase as a percentage of the state’s economy. Keep in mind that is just the increase to the state.

But wait, it gets EVEN WORSE! The Tax Foundation went and calculated what the total state-and-local tax burden would have been if we had these tax increases this year. While they assumed that both the $15.2 billion for CubaCare and the additional $1.6 billion would have been applied in full this year, I’ll assume a 3.3% annual inflation for the 2-year difference. Let’s run the 2007 state-and-local tax burden as a percentage of income chart again:

(N/A) – Average federal take 21.7%
(N/A) – Federal take from Wisconsin taxpayers 20.0%
(N/A) – Wisconsin 19.8% with the full-monty increase (increase adjusted downward for inflation)
#1 – Vermont 14.1%
#2 – Maine 14.0%
#3 – New York 13.8%
(N/A) – Wisconsin 13.0% with just the Doyle increase (increase adjusted downward for inflation)
#4 – Rhode Island 12.7%
#5 – Ohio 12.4%
#6 – Hawaii 12.4%
#7 – Wisconsin 12.3% (current)

Do note that this does not include either any out-of-state tax increases or any local tax increases in Wisconsin. If CubaCare and the rest of the tax increases pass intact, we’ll be paying nearly as much to Uncle Craps as we do Uncle Sam. That hasn’t happened since FDR rolled in with the SocSecurity Ponzi scheme. Even if we “just” get Doyle’s increases, we’re back within striking distance of #1.

Congratulations, voters. Congratulations, Dale Schultz and Mary Panzer. Thanks to your stupidity, we’re on our way to doing something we never have done; be the most-heavily-taxed state in the nation.

Revisions/extensions (4:42 pm 7/6/2007) – corrected a typo.

Or, if you prefer, “The state Senate wants to raise your taxes $1.74 billion $2.1 billion $2.6 billion more than $34 billion over the next 2 years”. By comparison, Doyle’s budget, which included that (not-quite-acknowledged) $2.6 billion 2-year increase, anticipated taking in $26.5 billion in taxes.

Item #1 – THE BIG ONE, the “universal health care” item (thanks to WisPolitics for the link to the document). This $30+ billion (over the 2 years) boondoggle is to be funded by a massive payroll/self-employment/income tax (depending on a person’s source of income):

– From employees who have Social Security taxes withheld and are under 65, 4% of the amount subject to the Social Security tax (the document says between 2% and 4%, published reports say 4%) unless they’re close to the poverty line (those earning under 150% of the poverty line pay nothing, those without dependents earning between 150% and 200% and those with dependents earning between 150% and 300% a sliding scale between 0% and 4%).
– From the self-employed, between 9% and 10% of the amount subject to the Social Security tax.
– From those who don’t pay Social Security taxes and are eligible for the boondoggle, 10% of their adjusted gross income up to the maximum amount that would be subject to the Social Security tax.
– From employers (which means, from employees), 10.5% of the portion of their payrolls subject to the Social Security tax.

Rick Esenberg has an excellent analysis of what this will do to the labor market. I’ll be back later to add to that.

Item #2 – A reinstituted “combined reporting” requirement that would raise business taxes $180 million over the next 2 years by making Wisconsin subsidiaries pay taxes on what their parent company makes outside of Wisconsin. The excuse from Judy Robson is that everybody else does it. Hey Judy, if everybody else was jumping off the bluff at the end of Oakwood Rd., would you be jumping too?

Item #3 – Remove the property tax exemption for ATM machines. Oh goody; now the fees at the ATMs will go up even more.

Item #4 – Increase heavy truck registration 10%, bring in an additional $53.4 million to the Craps Slus…er, Transportation Fund over the next 2 years, just because those taxes haven’t been jacked up in a decade.

Item #5 – Reward the Regional Transit Authority’s wasting of all but $50,000 of its $2 rental car fee on lobbyists by increasing that to $15.

The ‘Rats are well on their way to ensuring there is zero after-tax disposable income.

(H/T – the lovely, talented, and blogging again Jenna)

In what is likely the only victory for Wisconsin taxpayers, the Joint Finance Committee voted 10-6 to continue to exempt cell phone users from the state Universal Service Fund, as they have since 2001 (not to be confused with the federal Universal Service Fund; side note, the federal USF does tax cell phone users). Predictably, the tax-and-spenders at The Capital Times took exception to that. Let’s see what the state USF does:

• Give telecommunications equipment to non-profits – Golly, isn’t it nice that the state is so damn generous with my money. Of course, if they didn’t take over 10% of what the Wisconsin economy produces, maybe those non-profits would get enough donations to cover the expense.
• Give telecommunications equipment to “non-profit” and rural health care providers – The rural portion is duplicated by the feds. The “non-profit” portion is answered above.
• Help subsidize telecommunications equipment for the deaf – I can’t argue with the general premise; however, this is not means-tested.
• Low-income assistance – This is also duplicated by the feds. Further, there are some pretty damn cheap cell phone plans that don’t require credit – as an example, Net 10 offers 60 days/300 minutes of service for $30 (plus sales tax), phones for less than $40, and those unused minutes do roll over.
• Pay-phone subsidies – This is pretty much a self-limiting “problem” as more people get cell phones. Of course, if it becomes more expensive to get cell phones, then more people are going to need pay phones.
• “High rate” assistance – Again, duplicated by the feds. One of the main reasons for high rates is the level of taxation, including the duelling USFs.

It sure looks like it’s time to consider getting rid of the state USF, and I wouldn’t be opposed to dumping the federal USF as well.