No Runny Eggs

Fortunately, I’m not like the other losers from this past weekend; I get to play again after a chunky 1-3 weekend against the spread (2-2 on the over/unders, 2-2 straight-up). Once again, we have 4 games on the board, and this time we have the Pack going. For you wimps that just want the winners, remember the home team has a ridiculous record in this round, so take all four home teams to win outright. The rest of you, let’s make you some money.

Seattle @ Green Bay (-7.5/under-43.5) – The Seahags have no running game, so Matt Hasselbeck ought to be playing the lottery with a couple of pick-sixes.

Jacksonville (+13/over-50) @ New England – Over/under on the number of punts in this game – 4.5 (take the under).

San Diego @ Indianapolis (-9.5/under 46.5) – Marvin Harrison is back, and that along with Home Sweet Dome will be the difference between this meet and the one the Colts lost in November.

New York Giants @ Dallas (-7.5/over 46.5) – Stat of the week; teams going for a “three”-sweep are 11-6 in the third-game attempt.

2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread, and 2-2 on the over/unders does not make me healthy…

Washington 14 (+3.5/over-39-WIN) @ Seattle 35 – Like the Night Rider, Joe Gibbs crashed and burned.

Jacksonville 31 (-3-LOSS/under-41-LOSS) @ Pittsburgh 29 – Why, oh why did the Jags let the Steelers back in to twist the knife in my gut?

NY Giants 24 @ Tampa Bay 14 (-3/under-39.5-WIN) – My nightmare – Chuckie coaching in a playoff game.

Tennessee 6 @ San Diego 17 (-10/over-39-LOSS) – This was a slobber-knocker.

Somewhere below, I gave you a picture of the DeWalt Nano car that won the last “Car of Yesterday” race in NASCAR Cup history. I guess I should point you to the whole Flickr photostream of two different trips I took to the Matt Kenseth Fan Club Store/Museum up in Cambridge, especially since they were remodeling to give that car a proper display (it was in the “first Cup win” display when I was there in December):

– Strolling through the museum in October
– The DeWalt Nano car (in a temporary display)

Sorry I couldn’t make you guys money this year, but at least I got you through the .500 glass ceiling with a 123-120-13 record. Now, it’s the most wonderful time of the year, the NFL playoffs.

For those of you new to this site, I pull the lines off of Bodog (unless the site or a particular line is unavailable) a bit before the first kickoff (sometimes, barely before), tell you which team will win against the spread, and (usually) give a nugget or two (could be real, could be real BS, could be both). During the regular season, I also choose 2 games a week to give an opinion on the over/under; for the playoffs, it’s going to be every game. It’s been a while since I issued the standard disclaimer, so allow me to do so again – These picks are not intended to be used for any wager. If you decide to ignore this advice, please wager legally and responsibly; I can’t be held responsible if Uncle Sam or Knock-Knees Tony pays you a visit.

Washington (+3.5/over-39) @ Seattle – The Redskins are hotter than a roll of dice, and the Walrus is no Max Rockatansky. Step right up, chum, and watch Portis burn a rubber road right to freedom.

Jacksonville (-3/under-41) @ Pittsburgh – Hmmmm, 2 running backs or none? Take the deuce, especially since Jax already won once.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay (-3/under-39.5) – The Giants played their Super Bowl last week, and they’re facing their personal nightmare in Jeff Garcia.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-10/over-39) – Over/under on fines to be handed out after this game – $35,000 (take the over).

There is a reason why I called the last week of the regular season in the NFL the second-hardest to pick; so many teams treat this as a 5th exhibition game. Let’s review the random carnage:

Detroit 13 @ Green Bay 34 (-5) – No word yet whether Craig Nall is done for his career.
New Orleans 25 (-1.5) @ Chicago 33 – And the ‘Aints go marching out.
Minnesota 19 @ Denver 22 (+3) – Wall 1, Rookie 0
New England 38 (-14-LOSS) @ NY Giants 35 – Once again, the Pats were fit to be had. Don Shula last spotted with a 5-quart pail of ice cream hoping somebody, anybody plays 60 minutes of ball against them.
Buffalo 9 (+8-TIE) @ Philadelphia 17 – McNabb played like his contract was up.
Carolina 31 (-3) @ Tampa Bay 23 – Real smooth, Chuckie. At least you made the Carolina contingent on my roll happy.
Cincinnati 38 (-3) @ Miami 25 – The Deadfins were as lifeless as their fans after the G-men let the Pats off the hook.
Jacksonville 28 (+6.5 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) @ Houston 42 – And the award for the toughest division in the NFL goes to – the AFC South, which edged out the NFC East in wins 42-40 (both boast no losers and both wild-cards from their respective conferences).
Seattle 41 (pick’em) @ Atlanta 44 – Turnover, turnover, turnover.
San Francisco 7 @ Cleveland 20 (-10 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) – The Dawg Pound is really wondering why they wasted money on AJ Hawk’s brother-in-law.
Dallas 6 (+9) @ Washington 27 – Either Wade Phillips is a genius for realizing that it’s nigh impossible to beat the same team 3 times in the playoffs, or he won’t survive to play in Jerry Jones’ doll house.
Pittsburgh 21 (-3.5) @ Baltimore 27 – The Steelers treated this as an off-week, with predictable results.
San Diego 30 (-9) @ Oakland 17 – How appropriate that Plastic Pelosi is from San Fran. The top 2 net punting averages in NFL history were set in the Bay this year; Oakland’s Shane Lechler had a 41.1 net and San Fran’s Andy Lee had a 41.0 net to shatter the old record of 39.9 net.
St. Louis 19 @ Arizona 48 (-6) – Like Lambs to the slaughter.
Kansas City 10 (+6-WIN) @ NY Jets 13 – Jimmy Hoffa was deeply saddened.
Tennessee 16 (-4.5) @ Indianapolis 10 – Can anybody answer the question, why there are any ex-Badger quarterbacks in the NFL?

9-6-1 against the spread and 1-1 on the over/unders closes out the regular season at 123-120-13 ATS and 20-13-1 O/U. Wild card picks will be up momentarily.

We’re at the end of the regular season, the 2nd-hardest week to pick as so many teams have nothing of significance to play for. Not good, considering I went an extra-chunky 4-11-1 last week to bring me right back where I started. As always, the lines are from Bodog, so they may or may not bear any semblance to what your stateside Man is offering you.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-5) – Yeah, the Packers are one of those teams that, on paper, have nothing to play for. However, they need a bounce-back before the playoffs.
New Orleans (-1.5) @ Chicago – I’ll let 3 wood from JammieWearingFool handle this one – “The Bears have the 25th rated offense and the 28th rated defense. The Saints have the 5th rated offense and the 29th defense. So both defenses are equally bad, but New Orleans has a much better offense than the Bears. The weather Sunday in Chicago is supposed to be 35 degrees and cloudy, not so bad. The Bears have absolutely nothing to play for and have IR’d a lot of their players to protect them. Therefore, I take the Saints in a close one.”
Minnesota @ Denver (+3) – All in all it was all just bricks in the rookie wall.
New England (-14) @ NY Giants – Jimmy Hoffa says take the over-47.
Buffalo (+8) @ Philadelphia – You may want/like/get the points, but you’re not gonna need them. Stat of the week – Buffalo is 7-2 against teams that have not locked into the playoffs (including a win over the Redskins, which have the inside track on the last NFC wild-card spot).
Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay – Normally, I would say this line was whacked. However, Chuckie has already proven he will rest players, the Bucs have nothing to play for because of that, and the Bucs have not swept the Panthers since 2002.
Cincinnati (-3) @ Miami – Game of the Weak material here. Go under-45.
Jacksonville (+6.5 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) @ Houston – The AFC South is the toughest division in the NFL this year; last-place Houston is 7-8.
Seattle (pick’em) @ Atlanta – I don’t care if the Seahags have nothing to play for; the Dirty Birds have no business not giving boku points here.
San Francisco @ Cleveland (-10 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) – Neo is home one last time.
Dallas (+9) @ Washington – This is your mistake line of the week. It matters not that Dallas has home field wrapped up or that Terrell Owens will be out; they have a chance to screw the ‘Skins.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Baltimore – The Steelers still have a chance at the #3 spot in the AFC. They desperately want it.
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland – Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Chargers have the inside track and the weaker opponent.
St. Louis @ Arizona (-6) – And the award for Most Disappointing Team goes to Duh Lambs.
Kansas City (+6) @ NY Jets – My man Hoffa is wondering what is going through the minds of the bookies; the Jets have no offense, and Kansas City has a defense.
Tennessee (-4.5) @ Indianapolis – The Colts have already announced they’re rolling over, as Jim Sorgi will be playing at least a half.

The Packer debacle was the perfect metaphor for Week 16. My last fantasy team standing made me a perfectly-sucky 0-4 in the playoffs (and team #4 didn’t even make it in). How the mighty fell:

Green Bay 7 (-9) @ Chicago 35 – Lovie Smith saved his job, dammit!
Kansas City 20 (+5-TIE) @ Detroit 25 – The losing record takes a week off in Detroit, vacations at the Egg compound.
Washington 32 @ Minnesota 21 (-6.5) – In one week, the Queens went from inevitable to outside looking in. Go Skins!
Pittsburgh 41 @ St. Louis 24 (+8) – I hate Mark Bulger.
Dallas 20 (-11-LOSS) @ Carolina 13 – The worst of all worlds.
Cleveland 14 (-3) @ Cincinnati 19 – I knew I should’ve taken Agent Smith at home against Mr. Anderson.
Houston 15 @ Indianapolis 38 (-7) – Did I actually nail a game through the uprights?
NY Giants 38 @ Buffalo 21 (+3) – That’s the last time I let Paul handle the money.
Oakland 11 @ Jacksonville 49 (-14) – Do the math.
Philadelphia 38 @ New Orleans 23 (-3.5) – Rule of broken thumb; offer the left hand to the guy with the hammer.
Atlanta 27 @ Arizona 30 (-10.5-LOSS) – Damn near as wrong as it gets.
Tampa Bay 21 (-6-LOSS) @ San Francisco – I’m soooooo going to have to have a “talk” with Gruden for not keeping the hammer down.
Miami 7 @ New England 28 (-22-LOSS) – The inevitable happened (take your pick on which inevitable)
Baltimore 6 @ Seattle 27 (-10 – line from MGM Mirage) – Thanks for keeping up the skeer, Walrus.
NY Jets 6 @ Tennessee 10 (-8.5-LOSS) – Ironically, the same rules applied to these nose picks.
Denver 3 @ San Diego 23 (-9) – When the scrubs play the 4th quarter, you know it’s all good.

The worst week ever ended up at 4-11-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U, to drop my ass back to .500 at 114-114-12 and kick the over/unders to the 19-12-1 curb. I’ll be back at it Saturday.

Bank on these, as the drive to profitability continues:

Green Bay (-9) @ Chicago – Yeah, I know, they won round one. Favre kicks ass in Chi-Town, however, and this game means something for the Pack.
Kansas City (+5) @ Detroit – 6-2 to a losing record; priceless.
Washington @ Minnesota (-6.5) – The Vikes are only starting to run out of steam. The Skins are already there.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis (+8) – Everything says to take the Steelers except their record against suck-ass teams.
Dallas (-11) @ Carolina – Now that TO has banished Romo’s worse half, the ‘Boys late-season fade will take a 1-week hiatus
Cleveland (-3) @ Cincinnati – The battle for Ohio is over.
Houston @ Indianapolis (-7) – Stat of the week; Indy has won all five home meetings by at least 9 points. Take the over-45.
NY Giants @ Buffalo (+3) – PaulNoonan nailed it
Oakland @ Jacksonville (-14) – Math lesson: Win-and-in + Pro Bowl snub + weak opponent coming off their Super Bowl = blow-out
Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-3.5) – Rule of thumb; go with teams that have something to play for.
Atlanta @ Arizona (-10.5) – How bad does Arizona suck? They lost out to a 1-win team. Take the under-44.
Tampa Bay (-6) @ San Francisco – Viva Garcia!
Miami @ New England (-22) – Lightning will not strike twice.
Baltimore @ Seattle (-10 – line from MGM Mirage) – Rookie QBs and knockout defenses do not mix well.
NY Jets @ Tennessee (-8.5) – Standard rules regarding the Jets apply.
Denver @ San Diego (-9) – It will be a Bolt Christmas.

Revisons/extensions (3:54 pm 12/19/2007) – Bumped to the top after noting the Viqueens couldn’t cover Monday in the worst of all possible outcomes.

I’m getting greedy now; break-even is but a few games away (depending on the vig) since I went 11-5 (and a mere 1-1 on the over/unders):

Green Bay 33 (-9) @ St. Louis 14 – Is there a record Brett Favre doesn’t hold?
Detroit @ San Diego 51 (-11) – Let Duh Lions hit the floor.
Chicago 13 @ Minnesota 20 (-10-LOSS) – Fragging turnovers. Guess the man the head barkeep calls Purple Jesus hit the rookie wall.
Denver 13 @ Houston 31 (+2) – It’s a road of horrors for the wild ponies.
Cincinnati 13 @ San Francisco 20 (+9) – The BenGALS are toastified.
Arizona 24 @ New Orleans 31 (-4) – Just pass, baby.
Atlanta 3 @ Tampa Bay 37 (-14) – New coach, same result.
Baltimore 16 (-4) @ Miami 22 – And then there were none, part 1
Buffalo 0 @ Cleveland 8 (-6) – Just run, baby.
Jacksonville 29 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh 22 – Fred Taylor still has it
NY Jets 10 @ New England 20 (-23-LOSS) – Damn snow.
Seattle 10 @ Carolina 13 (+8) – Upset special of the day gets Sister Toldjah healthy.
Tennessee 26 (-4) @ Kansas City 17 – Just the right amount from Vince Young.
Indianapolis 21 @ Oakland 14 (+11-WIN) – At least it’s a moral victory, Eric (and because of the long 11 I took, a win for me).
Philadelphia 10 @ Dallas 6 (-11) – Westbrook is very smart; instead of scoring with just over 2 minutes left to make it a 2-score game and give the Cowboys a chance to score again and again, he sat down at the Dallas’ 1 because the Boys were out of timeouts.
Washington 22 @ NY Giants 10 (-5) – Jeremy Shockey perfectly illustrated the G-men’s season. Unfortunately, I was counting on him to salvage the Yahoo half of my fantasy football year.

That pushes the year-to-date record to 110-103-11 ATS and 18-11-1 O/U. Hopefully, you’ve been taking the over/unders, and your Man is only charging a 10% vig; then you’re only a pair of 12-6 weeks away from making money. Without the over/unders and the 10% vig, it’s a pair of 12-4 weeks. At 15% vig, you’d need the over-unders and a pair of 15-3 weeks (or without them, you’d need a pair of 15-1 weeks). At 20%, you’d be screwed, blued and tattoed.

Come to think of it, I’m screwed, at least without a good post-season.

The theme of the week was .500, as that was what I was aiming to smash. Unfortunately, it turned out to be my target:

Chicago 16 @ Washington 24 (-3) – How far have Duh Bears fallen? Todd Freaking Collins lit them up.
Oakland 7 @ Green Bay 38 (-11) – The bad news; Eric never made it up to the Frozen Tundra.
Dallas 28 (-11.5-LOSS) @ Detroit 27 – At least I told you to take the over. Odds of a house-cleaning in Detroit are now even.
Minnesota 27 @ San Francisco 7 (+9) – Where, oh where did the Niners’ offense go?
Carolina 6 @ Jacksonville 37 (-11) – Yeah it was ugly; not quite as ugly as me, but still ugly.
Miami 17 @ Buffalo 38 (-7) – The loser train rolls on.
New York Giants 16 @ Philadelpha 13 (-3) – I see the problem with my call; McNabb played.
San Diego 23 @ Tennessee 17 (+1.5) – Damn overtime.
St Louis 10 (+7) @ Cincinnati 19 – No Bulger, no win.
Tampa Bay 14 (-3) @ Houston 28 – I was pleading for help here. I didn’t get it.
Arizona 21 @ Seattle 42 (-7) – Bad Warner’s back.
Pittsburgh 13 (+10) @ New England 34 – I should’ve stuck with the road comment here. Nobody’s beating the Pats until 2008.
Cleveland 24 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 18 – Also insert J-E-T-S S*CK! SU*K! SUC*!
Kansas City 7 @ Denver 41 (-7) – Yep, it was in Denver.
Indianapolis 44 (-10) @ Baltimore 20 – Nothing like having every 4th pass attempt be complete to the end zone.
New Orleans 34 (-4.5) @ Atlanta 14 – Crater, baby!

8-8 ATS, 1-1 O/U leaves the season 98-99-11 ATS and 17-10-1 O/U at the end of business Monday. Unbelievably, the over-unders have locked in an above-.500 finish. Even more-incredibly, the early returns on Week 15 have left a mark on that glass ceiling.

Revisions/extensions (8:55 am 12/16/2007) – I need to learn how to count; that’s 9-7 ATS, which puts me over that .500 mark at 99-98-11. Take THAT, The Man!

I’m on the run after last week’s debacle (recap later), so I’ll make these down-and-dirty quick, with no explanations:

Green Bay (-9) @ St. Louis – Take the over-45
Detroit @ San Diego (-11)
Chicago @ Minnesota (-10)
Denver @ Houston (+2)
Cincinnati @ San Francisco (+9)
Arizona @ New Orleans (-4)
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-14)
Baltimore (-4) @ Miami
Buffalo @ Cleveland (-6)
Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
NY Jets @ New England (-23) – Take the over-45
Seattle @ Carolina (+8)
Tennessee (-4) @ Kansas City
Indianapolis @ Oakland (+11)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-11)
Washington @ NY Giants (-5)

Thanks to the 38-7 throttling of Oakland, the Green Bay Packers are your 2007 NFC North champs. I’ll repeat what I said last week:

I’ll admit it; I was way the hell wrong about the Packers this year. I was way the hell wrong about Mike McCarthy (alternately known as E. Michael McCanthy). I was even wrong about Ted (Wile E.) Thompson.

The week went much like the Packer game; an early-fuckup, a battle back, and a late choke.

Green Bay 27 (+7) @ Dallas 37 – Unfortunately, only half the secondary showed up, and was promptly taken out of the game by zebras. Fortunately, the over came in.
Detroit 10 @ Minnesota 42 (-4) – If only the Packers had taken care of business,….
NY Giants 21 @ Chicago 16 (+2) – How do you spell choke? B-E-A-R-S! Damn the G-men for getting greedy when all they needed to do was run the clock out and kick a field goa.
Atlanta 16 @ St Louis 28 (-3.5; line from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants opening line) – In a battle of backups, it’s best not to play the third-stringer.
Buffalo 17 (+6) @ Washington 16 – I wonder if the Hall of Fame can kick out a coach for sheer stupidity.
Houston 20 @ Tennessee 28 (-4) – The Texans were definitely doomed.
Jacksonville 25 (+7-WIN) @ Indianapolis 28 – Or get smashed by the over.
New York Jets 40 (+1.5; line from MGM Grand) @ Miami 13 – Do not look for the Jets to score 40 the last 4 games.
San Diego 24 (-6) @ Kansas City 10 – Where was this LT all season?
Seattle 28 (+3; line from MGM Grand) @ Philadelphia 24 – The Eagles’ fans are wondering what they’ve done to deserve this. Clue – the booing of Santa.
San Francisco 14 (+3) @ Carolina 31 – And I missed out on a 30″ walleye. At least I know my counter-contra picks worked out.
Cleveland 21 (-1) @ Arizona 27 – The NewBrowns continue to beat themselves on the road.
Denver 20 (-3.5) @ Oakland 34 – Actually, it turned into a hell of a week for the out-of-staters.
Tampa Bay 27 (+3) @ New Orleans 23 – Bow-wow-wow!
Cincinnati 10 (+7; line from MGM Grand) @ Pittsburgh 24 – Fugly explains the BenGALS.
New England 27 (-21-LOSS) @ Baltimore 24 – The Pats are exposed. Unfortunately, the ghost of Dennis Green infected the OldBrowns.

9-7 on the week and 1-1 in the over/unders punches me to 90-91-11 ATS and 16-9-1 on the over/unders.

I’ll add a link to the wrapup of an oh-so-close Week 13 in a bit, but I need to get this out before kickoff. As always, the lines come from Bodog, which unlike last week, doesn’t have any games off the board.

Chicago @ Washington (-3) – This time, it will not come down to a Gibbs brain-fart.
Oakland @ Green Bay (-11) – The good news; Eric (aka Black Tygrrrr) won’t have to rip his “We’ll trade our 45 for your #4” sign in half.
Dallas (-11.5) @ Detroit – The Lions continue their late-season slide. Take the over-51.5.
Minnesota San Francisco (+9) – This game features the dumbest over/under I’ve seen all season. Take the over-39.
Carolina @ Jacksonville (-11) – This one’s going to be ugly.
Miami @ Buffalo (-7) – If only it were in Miami, the Fins could avoid another crushing loss. Unfortunately, it’s not.
New York Giants @ Philadelpha (-3) – The G-men will continue to crater.
San Diego @ Tennessee (+1.5) – Ignore history; it’s not Schottenheimer’s Bolts.
St Louis (+7) @ Cincinnati – It’s a very risky play with Bulger not yet certain to play. However, he was a full participant in today’s practice.
Tampa Bay (-3) @ Houston – Can you tell me why the Bucs are only favored by 3? I can’t figure it out, even though the game’s circled.
Arizona @ Seattle (-7) – Stat of the week – Arizona has not swept Seattle since The Realignment. It’s not happening this year either.
Pittsburgh (+10) @ New England – I know, this game’s on the road, where Pittsburgh sucks. However, the Pats have been exposed as having no running game and no real ability to stop the run.
Cleveland (-3.5) @ New York Jets – Insert standard comment about the Game of the Weak
Kansas City @ Denver (-7) – This is in Denver, right?
Indianapolis (-10) @ Baltimore – The OldBrowns had the Pats right where they wanted them; unfortunately, they’re not good enough to do it two weeks in a row.
New Orleans (-4.5) @ Atlanta – The only thing I have to say is the Birds are no good.

Revisions/extensions (7:39 pm 12/6/2007) – Link to the Week 13 wrap.

Revisions/extensions (7:02 pm 12/2/2007) – D’OH! I transposed Detroit’s and Minnesota’s division records, so it’s not quite official yet.

I’ll admit it; I was way the hell wrong about the Packers this year. I was way the hell wrong about Mike McCarthy (alternately known as E. Michael McCanthy). I was even wrong about Ted (Wile E.) Thompson.

Because the Vikings beat the Lions early today, and the Giants came all the way back to beat the Bears, the Green Bay Packers are our 2007 NFC North champions will finish no worse than tied for first in the NFC North.

1. Green Bay, 10-2
2. Minnesota, 6-6
3. Detroit, 6-6
4. Chicago, 5-7

The tiebreakers situation (direct from the NFL):

– Green Bay holds the head-to-head sweep against Minnesota.
– Green Bay has clinched the conference record tiebreaker against Detroit (at worst a 7-5 conference record for Green Bay, at best a 6-6 conference record for Detroit; they would finish split in the season series, identical 3-3 division records and identical 7-5 records against common opponents if both teams finished at 10-6).
– If it is a two-way tie between Detroit and Green Bay, Detroit would hold the better division record (4-2 versus 3-3).
– Green Bay has clinched the head-to-head-to-head against Minnesota and Detroit (Green Bay would be no worse than 3-1, Detroit would be no better than 2-2, and Minnesota finished at 1-3). I am uncertain whether this would give the Packers the division or bring it back to a 2-team tiebreaker.

Borrowed from Tom McMahon’s 4-Block World…

Blegging R&E (6:21 pm 11/30/2007) – While I did ask for unanimous consent, it’s Tom’s work. Give him some comment love, please.

My dreams of getting another winning streak collapsed with the injury to McNabb and the monsoon in Pittsburgh. The good news is only the vig crushed me, and the over/unders returned to 2-0 form (I toyed with doing 3 last week; I pulled back from the over-41 in the Packer game). Here’s hoping lucky 13 steamrolls through, even though some of the lines won’t be coming from the usual Bodog…

Green Bay (+7) @ Dallas – The difference between the Packers and the Cowboys; a secondary. Since I’ve previously called for a 28-27 Packers’ win, take the over-52.
Detroit @ Minnesota (-4) – The rook is back and rested. The division will be the Packers’ outright about 3:06 pm Sunday.
NY Giants @ Chicago (+2) – The G-men are 7-4 on their way to 8-8. That 8th win won’t come until it’s too late.
Atlanta @ St Louis (-3.5; line from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants opening line) – The knockout defense knocked out the line at both Bodog and MGM Grand. No matter; Atlanta’s toast.
Buffalo (+6) @ Washington – I do not want to bet on this game. However, there’s a line on it.
Houston @ Tennessee (-4) – Haynesworth looks to be back. That spells doom.
Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis – Don’t these betters know that this series is always, but ALWAYS close and low-scoring, at least when both teams are healthy? Oh wait, the Colts aren’t healthy. Take the under-45 and smash your Man with it.
New York Jets (+1.5; line from MGM Grand) @ Miami – Bodog has this game off the board due to the lack of Fin backs. Because of that, Miami will continue the free-fall.
San Diego (-6) @ Kansas City – Lose to the Raiders, lose all respect.
Seattle (+3; line from MGM Grand) @ Philadelphia – Again, this game is off the Bodog board due to injuries, this time to both teams. Seattle’s done better this year dealing with their injuries.
San Francisco (+3) @ Carolina – Sooner or later, you have to cut bait. In betting, you have to do it sooner.
Cleveland (-1) @ Arizona – The arm’s fallen off Warner and the ribs are crushed; the wheels aren’t far behind for the transplanted Redbirds.
Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland – It’s not shaping up to be a good weekend for the out-of-staters on the NRE roll.
Tampa Bay (+3) @ New Orleans – You may like the points, you may want the points, by law, you get the points, but you’re not gonna need them! Take the defense.
Cincinnati (+7; line from MGM Grand) @ Pittsburgh – Dunno why this game’s off the Bodog board, but the forecast is for fugly conditions. Olbermann is bemoaning the fact ESPN has the Pats for the Monday Night game.
New England (-21) @ Baltimore – Odds of the Pats not running up the score – 1,000-1. Don’t be fooled into giving away your money.

Let’s review the split-even .500 Week 12, which started out with 3-0 promise, jumped to 8-3 after the noon games, and sunk like a Deadfin punt after that:

Green Bay 37 (-4) @ Detroit 26 – And thus falls yet another historical slump (paying attention Owen and Wigs?).
NY Jets 3 @ Dallas 34 (-14.5) – NBC and the 9/10ths of the country that aren’t in Green Bay, Dallas and Milwaukee are regretting missing out on Game of the Century II.
Indianapolis 31 (-13) @ Atlanta 13 – That ain’t cowbell coming from Hotlanta.
Minnesota 41 (+7) @ NY Giants 17 – The only bad thing was I had the Vikes D sitting on the bench in one of my leagues.
Denver 34 (+1.5) @ Chicago 37 – Lesson #1 – Do not kick to Devin Hester. Lesson #2 – Do not kick into the oncoming rusher in an attempt to kick away from Devin Hester. Lesson #3 – Listen to the Egg on the over/unders.
Tennessee 6 (-1.5) @ Cincinnati 35 – I call this a dead-cat bounce.
Buffalo 14 @ Jacksonville 36 (-8.5) – This game is further away than it appears.
Oakland 20 @ Kansas City 17 (-6) – Cooked Chef is now on the menu.
Houston 17 @ Cleveland 27 (-3.5) – Once again, Neo wins at home.
Seattle 24 (-3) @ St. Louis 19 – FUMBLE!!!!
New Orleans 35 @ Carolina 6 (+3) – The rest of the year is free. Sorry, ST.
Washington 13 @ Tampa Bay 19 (-3) – (Turnover, turnover, turnover) x 2
San Francisco 37 @ Arizona 31 (-10.5) – The bionics shorted out.
Baltimore 14 (+10) @ San Diego 32 – Where, oh where did the OldBrowns D go?
Philadelphia 28 @ New England 31 (-23-LOSS) – Odds that McNabb is the starting QB next year, 5-2 (nobody accused the Eagles of being smart).
Miami 0 @ Pittsburgh 3 (-16.5-LOSS) – Everybody must get stoned and soaked. Meanwhile, Ricky’s done for the year.

Oh well, we’ll try to bust .500 again this week, as the ATS record goes to 81-84-11. The good news is I finally got a 2-0 week against the over/under to push that to 15-8-1.

Inspired by Uncle Fred’s find of Lett’s early showboating in Super Bowl XXVII, I decided to try to find footage of the end of the 1993 Turkey Day game between the Cowpokes and the Deadfins. While I didn’t find anything that’s embeddable, enjoy this little offering from the NFL.

Oh, and Wiggy, the score of that game was Miami 16, Dallas 14.

An fugly week in the NFL:

Carolina 17 @ Green Bay 31 (-10) – Rollin’ past the trap game.
Oakland 29 (+5) @ Minnesota 22 – Unfortunately, the vet back was well-rested.
NY Giants 16 (-3) @ Detroit 10 – Add one more “Down goes Kitna!”
Chicago 23 @ Seattle 30 (-6) – Grossman’s Stinky Fingers survive another week.
San Diego 17 @ Jacksonville 24 (-3) – The Bolts are just not giving LT enough touches.
Kansas City 10 @ Indianapolis 13 (-15) – Is it just me, or do the Dolts suck too?
Cleveland 33 @ Baltimore (+3-TIE) – Unfortunately for me, it was Kyle Boller instead of Smith.
Tampa Bay 31 (-3) @ Atlanta 7 – Make that long gone.
Arizona 35 @ Cincinnati 27 (-3.5) – Why do I insist on betting on the BunGALs?
Miami 7 @ Philadelphia 17 (-10-TIE) – Once again, the backup to Mr. Overrated saves the day.
New Orleans 10 (pick’em) @ Houston 23 – Welcome back, Mr. Schaub.
Pittsburgh 16 (-10) @ NY Jets 19 – The good news; 6 kickoffs for Pittsburgh. The bad; 2 start-of-quarter ones, and 3 after field goals.
Washington 23 @ Dallas 28 (-11.5-LOSS) – The only ones to show up were Romo and Owens.
St. Louis 13 @ San Francisco 9 (+3) – At least I told you to take the under.
New England 56 (-16.5) @ Buffalo 10 – It’s just getting ridiculous.
Tennessee 20 (+2) @ Denver 34 – Where does Shanahan find these backs?

6-8-2 on the week keeps that .500 barrier unshattered at 73-76-11, while the vig continues to catch up to the over/under portion of the program (13-8-1).

After a 7-6-1 week last week, I’ll be gunning for my 6th consecutive winning week, which will finally put me on the happy side of .500 if I get it. We’re done with the byes, and starting Thursday, we’ll be coming to you early, so this is the last Sunday/Monday run. Remember boys, do it just like I’m drawing it up on the board:

Carolina @ Green Bay (-10) – Once again, sorry ST. Injuries have just caught up to the Panthers.
Oakland (+5) @ Minnesota – The rookie wall has finally hit the Vikes, and hard.
NY Giants (-3) @ Detroit – Down goes Kitna! DOWN GOES KITNA!
Chicago @ Seattle (-6) – Odds on us seeing Kyle “Jack” Orton before the day is done – 5-2. Take them!
San Diego @ Jacksonville (-3) – It’s time for Bad Bolts again.
Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-15) – For extra cash, take the over-42. For grins, take Indy over that 42.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (+3) – The game’s on the road, so instead of Neo, it’s Mr. Anderson going up against Smith.
Tampa Bay (-3) @ Atlanta – The Yahoo preview says the Falcons are back in the playoff hunt. I say they’re back…back…back…back…gone.
Arizona @ Cincinnati (-3.5) – In Cincy? Check. Take the BenGALs to win back-to-back for the first time this season.
Miami @ Philadelphia (-10) – The beatdown goes on.
New Orleans (pick’em) @ Houston – The Aints are pissed.
Pittsburgh (-10) @ NY Jets – The bad news for Blitzburgh; they suck at kickoff coverage. The good news; they’ll be doing a lot of kickoffs.
Washington @ Dallas (-11.5) – Thank you for flying Air Romo. The seatbelt sign is fastened, but the popcorn is still popping.
St. Louis @ San Francisco (+3) – Slumpbusting flashback; the 49ers busted their last 7-game losing streak against the Rams. Take the under-39.5.
New England (-16.5) @ Buffalo – Dunno why NBC moved this one to prime-time.
Tennessee (+2) @ Denver – You won’t need the points. What’s Denver going to do when the colors backs (White and Brown) run wild on you?

Yes, once again the vig crushed me, and that .500-for-the-year barrier is proving to be made of bulletproof glass, but 7-6-1 is above .500 the last time I checked…

Minnesota 0 (+6) @ Green Bay 34 – I knew there was a reason why I picked up this defense (I’ll conveniently ignore I also picked up Duh Viqueens D, but mention that I didn’t use them).
Chicago 17 (-3.5) @ Oakland – For about 55 minutes, Eric was looking pretty happy. Then the last 5 rolled around.
Detroit 21 (pick’em) @ Arizona 31 – Lesson #12: Do NOT take Duh Lion Cubs on the road, EVER!
Jacksonville 28 (+5) @ Tennessee 13 – And the Jags screwed with the schedule-makers.
Denver 27 (+3) @ Kansas City 11 – For the first time this season, Denver did not need Jason Elam to save them.
Buffalo 13 (-3-TIE) @ Miami 10 – That would be an awesome parlay.
Cleveland 28 @ Pittsburgh 31 (-10-LOSS) – Maybe it’s the uniforms.
St Louis 37 @ New Orleans 29 (-11) – And then there was one, as the Aints return to historical form.
Atlanta 20 @ Carolina 13 (-3.5) – Sorry, ST. Maybe in 2 weeks.
Philadelphia 33 (+3) @ Washington 25 – Feel the brotherly love.
Cincinnati 21 (+3.5) @ Baltimore 7 – Yes, this is FOOTball.
Dallas 31 (-2.5) @ NY Giants 20 – Hoffa knows his G-men; after all, he has a 50-yard-line seat.
Indianapolis 21 (-4) @ San Diego 23 – And the Colts wonder, still they wonder, who’ll stop the rain?
San Francisco 0 @ Seattle 24 (-10) – The Pacific Northwest is very conducive to low-scoring games as well.

That puts the crazy mutant cheesy guy at 67-68-9 ATS and 12-7-1 over/under. Don’t think I’m making bank for the year, but I believe the next round will shatter that bulletproof glass ceiling. Knowing my luck, a shard will catch me in the neck.

It is with a heavy heart that I’m back in town, because my college pick of the day (Bucky +3 over the mini-Wolves) made bank, and if I could’ve stuck around longer, my late picks (Illinois and Georgia) would have also made bank. Oh well, I’ll just have to keep on rolling after yet another 9-win week…

Minnesota (+6) @ Green Bay – There’s just too many points to give, especially with Rouse now starting.
Chicago (-3.5) @ Oakland – I hope the Black Tygrrrr enjoyed his Vegas trip; reality crashes in on him today. Sorry.
Detroit (pick’em) @ Arizona – I know the Lions suck on the road, but you gotta give the hapless Cards a point or two. On second thought, since the pros aren’t, you shouldn’t either.
Jacksonville (+5) @ Tennessee – The schedulers screwed the Jags this year; they’re the only team to take a 3-game road trip.
Denver (+3) @ Kansas City – Larry Johnson is not only out, but he’s out $7,500.
Buffalo (-3) @ Miami – Odds that the Deadfins finish 0-16 the same year the Pats break their 1972 record; pretty damn good.
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-10) – As long as the Steelers don’t come out in those awful uniforms again,….
St Louis @ New Orleans (-11) – Help a brother out; lay the lumber.
Atlanta @ Carolina (-3.5) – Since I’m giving shout-outs to the blogroll, Sister Toldjah will be happy today.
Philadelphia (+3) @ Washington – Like McNabb should’ve said last week, “We’re making sure the Boys win the NFC East.”
Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Baltimore – You may like/want/get the points, but the OldBrowns are too shell-shocked.
Dallas (-2.5) @ NY Giants – The bottom line from Hoffa says the G-men are fishing with him. Stat of the week from JammieWearingFool – the Giants are 4-14 coming off the bye.
Indianapolis (-4) @ San Diego – Battle of the funks. The Bolts have longer ones.
San Francisco @ Seattle (-10) – The Pacific Northwest is very hazardous to one’s health, and the Niners are anything but healthy.

Revisions/extensions (10:50 am 11/11/2007) – Almost forgot my ass-kicking over/unders. Go under the 38 in the San Fran/Seattle game and over the 41 at Lambeau.

Did I not say to rinse and repeat? 9-5 against the spread, and my first win in weeks on the over/under made me a very happy camper.

Green Bay 33 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 22 – Losing records will not be tolerated. Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about that.
Denver 7 (+3) @ Detroit 44 – Let the bleeding commence.
San Diego 17 (-7.5) @ Minnesota 35 – Back at the hotel, that is. They sent San Diego State along as a surrogate D.
Washington 23 @ NY Jets 20 (+4-WIN) – At least I was right about the 3 and the 0.
Arizona 10 @ Tampa Bay 17 (-3.5) – Did I not say take the team with the D?
Carolina 7 (+5) @ Tennessee 20 – Boy was that an inept call. At least the under was preserved.
San Francisco 16 (+3) @ Atlanta 20 – Where, oh where as Frank Goracle gone?
Jacksonville 24 @ New Orleans 41 (-3.5) – Separation time is NOW.
Cincinnati 21 @ Buffalo 33 (+2) – And I call it riding the gravy train.
Seattle 30 @ Cleveland 33 (-2) – Un-fragging-believable; an outright OT win.
New England 24 @ Indianapolis 20 (+6.5-WIN) – If the Colts can’t stop the Pats, nobody can.
Houston 24 (+3) @ Oakland 17 – Repeating, “Just lose, baby.” Sorry Eric, you guys just don’t have the swords this year.
Dallas 38 (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 17 – McNabb to the media after the game, if he were honest – “The Boys will win the NFC East.”
Baltimore 7 (+10) @ Pittsburgh 38 – Because only one team has a defense, and that team also has the offense, you dumbshit.

Oh-so-close to .500 now at 60-62-8 ATS, 11-6-1 on the over/unders. If I keep rolling, I might make bank.

After crushing The Man last week, it’s time to rinse and repeat:

Green Bay (+2.5) (Dunno how I fouled up the sign; no matter) @ Kansas City – You could say I’m doing this just to spite Nick, and you wouldn’t be wrong. However, the Chiefs have no offense.
Denver (+3) @ Detroit – Normally, I wouldn’t take the team hurt worse, especially if they’re on the road. The Lions are not as good as the Pack.
San Diego (-7.5) @ Minnesota – San Diego’s defense is back. ‘Nuff said.
Washington @ NY Jets (+4) – Stat of the week for the game of the weak; the ‘Skins are 7-1 all-time against the J-E-T-S S*CK! SU*K! SUC*! Since it will be a 13-10 game, take the under-35.5 with full confidence.
Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) – Take the team with the defense.
Carolina (+5) @ Tennessee – It’s the inept leading the injured. Under-36 looks like a winner as well.
San Francisco (+3) @ Atlanta – See above. The Birds have no business being favored against anybody other than the Rams and ‘Fins.
Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3.5) – Time to separate the men from the boys.
Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+2) – Defense is the name of the game, so you won’t need the points.
Seattle @ Cleveland (-2) – Neo’s home.
New England @ Indianapolis (+6.5) – Dome Sweet Dome. Over/under on when Brady gets taken out: 12:33 in the 3rd, and I’m going late.
Houston (+3) @ Oakland – Just lose, baby.
Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia – Yes, Philly has a lot to say about who wins the NFC East; and they’re about to say it’s going to be the Boys.
Baltimore (+10) @ Pittsburgh – Can somebody tell me why a defensive struggle with an over/under of 36.5 has a line of 10?