No Runny Eggs

– I agree with Jeff Gluck (late of Scene Daily, now at SBNation.com) that something needs to be done with rained-out qualifying. There were inarguably a few good cars that missed out on the race because they were unfortunate enough to be way down on the qualifying draw.

At the very least, NASCAR could have the go-or-go-homers qualify and start behind the “guaranteed” drivers. It would be better if NASCAR would be open to moving qualifying from its scheduled time to get it in.

– Related to that, Jack Roush (likely with some cash from Paul Menard’s dad John) bought Menard’s way into the race after the new-for-2010 #98 team drew the 49th position in the qualifying order and initially got frozen out after the rainout. While higher-profile drivers buying a “field-filler’s” starting spot is nothing new in NASCAR, usually it involves the owner of the bought-out team getting the owners’ points earned by the replacement driver.

What makes the Menard/Roush purchase so unusual is that they paid 5 teams (the drawn-into-the-show-and-scheduled-to-be-start-and-parked #97 NEMCO Chevy of Jeff Fuller, plus the 4 teams between them and the 43rd spot) to withdraw from the event. The significance of that is that the #98 not only gets the 150 owners’ points instead of the 16 they would have picked up in the “normal” deal, the teams that pulled out, which includes a couple of teams that hoped to run the full schedule, don’t get either the points or the attempt credit. Of course, since only the start-and-park NEMCO team would have otherwise picked up cash, and Menard was easily strong enough to have made the field had there been qualifying, maybe it’s time for a poll.

– Speaking of Menard, he took out the first of two females in the race, Chrissy Wallace, just as the cars got all the way up to speed.

– The other female in the race, Danica Patrick, took a car from an organization (JR Motorsports) that is capable of putting a front-running car out there and ran mid-pack until she drove right into the first Big One. In short, just another rookie performance.

– Speaking of JR Motorsports, her car owner, Dale Earnhardt Jr., was the biggest victim of the second Big One, taking a ride on the roof after he got turned on the backstretch.

– In the end, another spring Daytona race, another Tony Stewart win. Except for the snake-bit heartaches in the Daytona 500 and 5 fewer Cup trophies, it’s fair to say that Smoke is this generation’s Dale Earnhardt St.

All you need to know about the 44th edition of The Championship Game That Cannot Be Named™ can be found at Eric’s recap of the game:

One thing is certain in all of this. The Saints are no longer losers. They are now the very best.

On this day, we all wanted to be in that number. The Saints went marching in.

In 213 days, the NFL 2010 season kicks off. Before that is the NFL Draft.

The Saints are the defending champions, and Super Bowl XLIV is in the history books forever.

31-17 Saints

I strongly recommend you read the entire writeup. It is far better than anything you’ll find on any sports page, local or national.

NBC Sports’ Gregg Rosenthal challenged the Twittersphere to tiebreak a hypothetical 8-way 8-8 tie between the Miami Dolphins (7-8), New York Jets (8-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), Baltimore Ravens OldBrowns (8-7), Houston Texans (8-7), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8), Tennessee Titans (7-8) and Denver Broncos (8-7) for the two AFC wild-card playoff spots. The NFL tiebreaking procedures state that ties within the division get broken first.

Let’s start with the easiest division, the AFC West. Denver would be the only team at 8-8, so they go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker

Next, let’s go to the AFC North. Baltimore split their season series with Pittsburgh, but they have a better division record (3-3 versus 2-4). Baltimore would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

The AFC East is a bit easier as Miami swept New York, and they would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

Finally, we get to the wild division, the AFC South. Jacksonville has the best head-to-head-to-head record of the three teams (3-1 versus 2-2 for Tennessee and 1-3 for Houston), so they would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

Now, we can go to the conference-level tiebreakers between Denver, Baltimore, Miami and Jacksonville:

• No team either beat or lost to all of the others, so the first tiebreaker (head-to-head sweep/swept) is out.
• Each team would have a 6-6 conference record, so the second tiebreaker (conference record) is out.
• The four teams do not have 4 games against common opponents (sharing only Indianapolis and New England), so the third tiebreaker (record against common opponents, minimum of 4 games apiece) is out.
• That devolves to the 4th tiebreaker, strength of victory. Between the games through tonight and the games necessary to create the 8-8 tie, Denver would have a SoV of 66-59, Baltimore would have a SoV of 58-67, Miami would have a SoV of 55-69, and Jacksonville would have a SoV of 46-80.

Denver would get the first wild-card spot based on strength of victory (none of the other 3 teams can make up the 10+ games). If either Baltimore or Miami has the 2nd-best strength of victory outright, that team would get the second wild-card spot since Jacksonville would not be able to catch either team. However, a difference of 2 1/2 games going into tomorrow night’s game means that it is possible they would tie. In that case, they would go to a two-team tiebreaker:

Revisions/extensions (11:20 pm 12/27/2009) – Things only start over if a tie remains after breaking up a 4-way tie. The post has been shortened to reflect that.

R&E part 2 (11:25 pm 12/27/2009) – Corrected a rather-embarrassing typo. I originally listed Houston twice in the list of 8.

There’s two weeks left, and things really tightened up in the NFC, where a 9-7 record and a 7-5 conference record is required for wild-card consideration. Four of the six spots are now locked up, including two more division crowns, and three teams remain in contention for the last two spots:

• The Dallas Cowboys knocked out the remaining teams that could have finished 8-8 going into the weekend (the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers) as well as the Atlanta Falcons by defeating the previously-unbeaten New Orleans Saints.
• The Minnesota Vikings failed to take advantage by losing to those same Panthers, but backed into the NFC North crown as the Green Bay Packers choked against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• The Philadelphia Eagles got into the playoffs by beating (and knocking out of wild-card contention) the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Arizona Cardinals finally seized the opportunity to take the NFC West crown by knocking off the Detroit Lions.

In the playoffs

New Orleans Saints (13-1, 9-1 NFC, won the NFC South) – The Saints, who have already claimed the NFC South crown and a first-round bye, are still in the driver’s seat despite losing to the Dallas Cowboys. However, if they and the Minnesota Vikings tie, the Vikings would win the tiebreaker for home-field advantage based on a better conference record. The good news is that since the Vikings also lost, the magic number to clinch is 0.5 (or a tie by either the Saints or the Vikings). Given the schedule of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) on Sunday and the Carolina Panthers (6-8) on the road on 1/3, it is very likely they will get home-field advantage.

Minnesota Vikings (11-3, 8-2 NFC, won the NFC North) – The Vikings backed their way into the NFC North crown as they swept the Green Bay Packers. They would hold the tiebreaker against the New Orleans Saints (conference record) for home-field advantage, but would not hold any tiebreakers involving the Arizona Cardinals (who beat the Vikings, and would have a better conference record), Philadelphia Eagles (conference record) or Dallas Cowboys (conference record). Their magic number to get a bye is still 1.5 against the Eagles, and 0.5 against the Cardinals and Cowboys. They have the Chicago Bears (5-9) on the road Monday, and the New York Giants (8-6) at home on 1/3.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-4, 9-2 NFC, 1st in the NFC East) – The Eagles already swept the New York Giants, so they’re in the playoffs. They would hold any tiebreakers involving the Minnesota Vikings (conference record) or the Arizona Cardinals (conference record or common opponents). The magic number to clinch the NFC East crown is 1.5 over the Dallas Cowboys (who already beat the Eagles once); they also would win the NFC East if there were a three-way tie at 10-6 (the Cowboys would be out on division record, with the Giants out on the head-to-head sweep). Their remaining games are against the Denver Broncos (8-6) Sunday and at the Cowboys (9-5) 1/3.

Arizona Cardinals (9-5, 7-3 NFC, won the NFC West) – They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Minnesota Vikings (by victory) and the Dallas Cowboys (common opponents), but would lose any tiebreaker to the Philadelphia Eagles (conference record/common opponents). Their remaining games are both at home – against the St. Louis Rams (2-12) Sunday and against the Green Bay Packers (9-5) 1/3.

Scrambling to get in

Green Bay Packers (9-5, 7-3 NFC, 1st in the wild-card race) – The Packers hold the tiebreakers against the Dallas Cowboys (by win) and the Atlanta Falcons (conference record), but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the New York Giants (common opponents). Their magic number is 2 over the Cowboys or 1.5 over the Giants. Their remaining games are against the Seattle Seahawks (5-9) Sunday and at the Arizona Cardinals (9-5) 1/3.

Dallas Cowboys (9-5, 7-3 NFC, 2nd NFC East, 2nd wild-card) – The formula is deceptively-simple – win out and they’re in as NFC East champs by virtue of sweeping the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4). Unfortunately, not only do they have a horrid December record over the last several years, they also don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Green Bay Packers (lost to them) or the New York Giants (got swept by them), or the three-way tiebreaker against the Eagles and Giants at 10-6 (they would have the worst division record). They did, however, beat the Eagles once, with the rematch in Dallas on 1/3, and would have the tiebreaker against the Arizona Cardinals (common opponents), the Minnesota Vikings (conference record), and the Atlanta Falcons (conference record). Their magic number is 1.5 over the Giants. Besides the Eagles to close the season, they get the Washington Redskins (4-9) on the road Sunday.

New York Giants (8-6, 6-4 NFC, 3rd NFC East, 3rd wild-card) – They can no longer win the NFC East as the Philadelphia Eagles swept them. However, they do hold the tiebreakers over the Green Bay Packers (common opponents), the Cowboys (swept them) and Atlanta Falcons (conference record). Their remaining games are against the Carolina Panthers (6-8) Sunday and at the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) 1/3.

The AFC is just too crowded to summarize. Besides, my allegiance is to the Pack, and they’re in the NFC.

If it’s December, it’s time to take a look at who’s where in the playoff picture. Everybody has 3 games left, and to be in the wild-card picture, a team has to be able to finish at least 8-8 and finish no worse than 6-6 in the conference (the worst that the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals can do) to make it through the tiebreakers. The St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins can’t make it to 8-8, while the Chicago Bears can’t finish better than 5-7 in the conference. That leaves 11 teams for 6 spots, with 2 already claimed.

In the playoffs

New Orleans Saints (13-0, 9-0 NFC, 1st in the NFC South) – The Saints, who have already claimed the NFC South crown and a first-round bye, are in the driver’s seat. However, unlike the also-undefeated Indianapolis Colts, they do not yet have home-field advantage locked up. In fact, if they and the Minnesota Vikings tie, the Vikings would win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record. The magic number for home-field advantage through the playoffs is 1.5 (any combination of Saints wins or Vikings losses, with a tie counting as a half). Given the schedule of the Dallas Cowboys (8-5) on Thursday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) on 12/27 and the Carolina Panthers (5-8) on the road on 1/3, it is at least even money the Saints will finish 16-0.

Minnesota Vikings (11-2, 8-1 NFC, 1st in the NFC North) – The Vikings have not yet locked up the NFC North crown, but they do have at least a wild-card berth locked up. They can win the NFC North with a win or a Green Bay Packers loss (or two ties between the two teams) as they swept the Packers. Assuming they win the NFC North, and they and the Arizona Cardinals (who beat the Vikings) do not both finish 11-5, their magic number to lock up a first-round bye is 1.5 (any combination of Vikings wins or Philadelphia Eagles losses, with a tie counting as half). They have the Carolina Panthers (5-8) on the road Sunday, the Chicago Bears (5-8) on the road 12/28 (so much for ESPN’s hope that game would mean anything), and the New York Giants (7-6) at home on 1/3.

In the driver’s seat

Philadelphia Eagles (9-4, 8-2 NFC, 1st in the NFC East) – The Eagles already swept the New York Giants, beat the Atlanta Falcons, and would hold any tiebreakers involving the Minnesota Vikings (conference record) and/or the Arizona Cardinals (common opponents). They can get two more head-to-head tiebreakers and the three-way East tiebreaker with games against the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys. A win against the Niners (6-7) at home on Sunday (or a tie by either team in any remaining game and a tie/loss by the Giants, or one win in their other two games) gets them into the playoffs. If necessary, a win at the Cowboys (8-5) on 1/3 gets them the division crown based on winning either the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cowboys (division record) or a three-way against the Cowboys and the Giants (games against each other). Beyond that, the magic number for the division is 2.5 versus the Cowboys and 0.5 versus the Giants. Sandwiched between the two games with possible playoff implications is a game against the Denver Broncos (8-5) on 12/27.

Arizona Cardinals (8-5, 6-3 NFC, 1st in the NFC West) – They blew a chance to clinch the NFC West last night by getting swept by the San Francisco 49ers. However, they did beat the Minnesota Vikings, so they do have a theoretical shot at a first-round bye (it requires a two-way tie; the Cardinals would lose in a 3-way tie with the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles). Their magic number to clinch the NFC West is 1.5 (any combination of Cardinals wins or Niners losses, with ties counting for half), as they swept the Seattle Seahawks, though a three-way tie would give the NFC West to the Niners based on games against each other. On the wild-card end of things should they degenerate to that point, their magic number is 3 against the Dallas Cowboys, 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, and 1 against the Carolina Panthers. They also hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the New York Giants (by win) and Cowboys (common opponents), and have to play the Green Bay Packers (9-4) on 1/3, but lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Eagles (common opponents) and the Panthers (by loss). They also would have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Falcons (6-7) via conference record unless they both finish 8-8 and the Falcons win their remaining conference game; in that case, the Falcons would take it based on the record against common opponents. Their other games are at Detroit (2-11) Sunday and against St. Louis (1-12) 12/27.

Green Bay Packers (9-4, 7-3 NFC, 2nd NFC North, 1st wild-card) – The Packers still have a theoretical chance to take the NFC North crown, but since they got swept by the Minnesota Vikings, it would take a total collapse (outlined above). They hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the Dallas Cowboys (by win), San Francisco 49ers (by win) and Atlanta Falcons (conference record), and have to play the Arizona Cardinals (8-5) 1/3, but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the New York Giants (common opponents). Their magic number is 1 over both the Cowboys and Giants. Their other games are at the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) Sunday and against the Seattle Seahawks (5-8) 12/27.

Scrambling to get in

Dallas Cowboys (8-5, 6-3 NFC, 2nd NFC East, 2nd wild-card) – The formula is deceptively-simple – win out and they’re in as NFC East champs by virtue of sweeping the Philadelphia Eagles (9-4). Unfortunately, not only do they have a horrid December record over the last several years, they also don’t have the tiebreaker against the Packers (lost to them) or the Giants (got swept by them). They did, however, beat the Eagles once (they play in Dallas on 1/3), the Falcons, the Panthers and the Seahawks, and hold the tiebreaker over the Niners (common opponents). Besides the Eagles to close the season, they get the New Orleans Saints (13-0) on the road Sunday and the Washington Redskins (4-9) on the road 12/27.

New York Giants (7-6, 5-4 NFC, 3rd NFC East, 3rd wild-card) – Their chances took a body blow when they got swept by the Philadelphia Eagles, but things could get very interesting in a 3-way tie in the NFC East. Outside of that, they do hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Green Bay Packers (common opponents), Dallas Cowboys (swept them), Atlanta Falcons (beat them), and Seattle Seahawks (common opponents), have to play the Panthers (5-8) at home 12/27, and would lose the tiebreaker to the Arizona Cardinals (lost to them). Sandwiching the Panthers game are trips to the Washington Redskins (4-9) Monday night and the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) 1/3.

On life support

San Francisco 49ers (6-7, 5-4 NFC, 2nd NFC West, 4th wild-card) – They do hold all the tiebreakers against their NFC West foes (swept the Arizona Cardinals, have a better division record than the Seattle Seahawks, and have the best record against each other). They also would have the tiebreaker against the Dallas Cowboys (conference record), and have to play at the Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) Sunday, but would lose the tiebreaker to the Green Bay Packers (lost to them), Atlanta Falcons (lost to them) and Carolina Panthers (conference record). After Sunday’s game, they get Detroit (2-11) at home 12/27 and St. Louis (1-12) on the road 1/3.

Atlanta Falcons (6-7, 5-6 NFC, 2nd NFC South, 5th wild-card) – Atlanta holds only the head-to-head tiebreaker against the San Francisco 49ers outright by virtue of beating them, while they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, and would lose the tiebreaker to the Carolina Panthers (split, but the Panthers would have a better record against common opponents). Also, there is one and only scenario where they would have the tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals – they both finish 8-8 and the Falcons win their remaining conference game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) 1/3. Before then, they play the New York Jets (7-6) on the road Sunday and the Buffalo Bills (5-8) at home 12/27.

Being fitted for a toe-tag

Carolina Panthers (5-8, 5-4 NFC, 3rd NFC South, 6th wild-card) – First, they have to beat the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) on Sunday, the New York Giants (7-6) on the road 12/27 and the New Orleans Saints (13-0) on 1/3. Next, they must have the Giants (who they would have beaten), Atlanta Falcons (6-7, with whom they split), Dallas Cowboys (8-5, who beat them) and San Francisco 49ers (6-7) end up with at least 8 losses, with the Niners and/or the Giants (and/or the Arizona Cardinals if the Niners go 8-8 to win the NFC West) ending up at 8-8 along with them and the Cowboys. If that happens, no matter what the combination is, the Panthers would be in the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks (5-8, 4-6 NFC, 3rd NFC West, 7th wild-card) – The good news is getting to 8-8 is easier for the Seahawks, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers (9-4) on the road 12/27, and the Tennessee Titans (6-7) on 1/3. The bad news is they do not win any division tiebreakers nor any head-to-head tiebreakers with teams that can finish 8-8. The only possible way for them to make the playoffs is if neither the Carolina Panthers (5-8) nor the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) get 8 wins, if the Dallas Cowboys (8-5), New York Giants (7-6) and Atlanta Falcons (6-7) finish 8-8, AND the Falcons win their remaining conference game to create a 3-way conference record tie between the Falcons, Giants and Seahawks, AND THEN it depends on strength of victory (which doesn’t look good for the Seahawks, seeing three of their victims have a grand total of three wins).

Author’s note; this is adapted from my two-part report over on the Matt Kenseth Fan Club boards, done at the “request” of the board’s Crew Chief Rae.

Since I am a Matt Kenseth fan, and Matt, his father Roy and his son Ross decided to come down to Oak Creek to help celebrate the re-opening of the Oak Creek Farm and Fleet store (helped by the fact F&F is Ross’ main sponsor), I decided to brave the rain and the traffic to meet them and get an autograph and a few pictures. The pics from the “good” camera are up on my Flickr account, while the early ones from the “smart”phone went up on Twitpic.

Even though I live a few minutes from the Farm and Fleet, I got there late thanks to the same traffic that held up the Kenseths. The parking lot was completely full, and I ended up parking on a side street a few-minute walk in the rain from the store. That rain also limited the outdoor display to the hauler and the DeWalt show car.

Because I was late, I didn’t get a ticket, at least initially. However, I got extremely lucky when somebody who somehow had an extra ticket had his cell phone die on him, and he asked me to message him a pic. Because it is easier for me to send it via e-mail, I did that instead (and it also allowed me to let him know about the full set).

Since that extra ticket was in the last few of the 400 to get tickets, I decided to grab a couple of crowd-related shots. The shot of the night was a young fan up on the table between Matt and Ross. Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY with a camera was taking pictures of that.

Do click on the pic for the standard Flickr sizing options, including the gonzo-sized one

One of the hardest shots to get was Ross’ trophy collection. The line to get autographs went right past it. Something I did leave out of the MKFC report was the spotty cell coverage; the indoor coverage from AT&T ranged from the Edge network to no data coverage at all, which isn’t good when trying to upload 600K-sized pics.

Eventually, my number group got called, so I got into line. I ran into somebody who drove in from Iowa and also got in a bit too late to get a ticket. He heard from one of the Farm and Fleet employees that even though Matt and Ross were a bit late in getting in, they would try to stay a bit later after all 400 ticket-holders were taken care of to sign some more autographs.

I got all the way in and handed my hat, which I picked up at the Miller Lite Nationals this year to ward off the rain, to Roy. He found the one part that isn’t black and signed it. He then passed it to Ross, who found a silver Sharpie and put his signature on it. Meanwhile, I handed my 2007 Carhartt race-won diecast to Matt to sign. Ross, forgetting that there was a one-item-per-driver limit, handed my hat to Matt, and he also signed that.

I briefly talked to Matt about what might have been had he had more cars like the Charlotte one a couple months earlier, and he’s looking forward to getting a win or two out of the rest of the season. I had to head to a meeting to which I was already rather late, so I don’t know whether the gentleman from Iowa who got in a bit late was able to get something signed. Before I left, however, I decided to give DeWalt one last plug with the signed souvenirs since Farm and Fleet was so kind to have a DeWalt display.

Again, click on the pic for the standard Flickr range of sizes.

Despite the presence of five 4-0 teams (four of which are playing today), there are only 3 games where both teams are above .500:

– Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1)
– Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1)
– New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0)

There is also only one game where both teams are under .500 – Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3), despite all six teams that are winless (Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Carolina, which already had its bye) playing this weekend.

BTW, take the Packers over the Bye because they are getting 3.

Notropis asked this question in last night’s Ace of Spades HQ MNF open thread:

Here’s a fun math question (or not):

Examine the NFL schedule, and determine what the maximum number of undefeated teams could be, at any point in the season.

Ex: after week 1, I’d guess it’d be 16, unless someone had a week 1 bye.

Since the order of the NFL schedule is too random to properly assign victories between Weeks 2 and 16 (e.g., a team that won in Week 1 may or may not face another 1-0 team in Week 2), it is impossible to answer that without a Cray supercomputer.

However, since the content of the NFL schedule is entirely predictable, we can figure out how many teams can finish 16-0. The schedule of every NFL team is made up of the following:
– A home-and-home series against each of the other three division rivals.
– A game apiece against the four teams of a single division in the other conference.
– A game apiece against the three teams in the same conference that finished in the same divisional order the prior season (i.e. the NFC North champion will face the NFC East champion, the NFC South champion, and the NFC West champion).
– A game apiece against the other three teams of a single division in the same conference.

A single team that goes 16-0 (Team A) eliminates from a 16-0 possibility the other three teams in its division, all four teams of its “interconference” division schedule, the three teams that finished in the same divisional spot the prior season, and the other three teams of its “intraconference” division schedule. That leaves 6 teams in that same conference and 12 teams in the other conference that could go 16-0.

A second team in the same conference that goes 16-0 (Team B) eliminates from a 16-0 possibility its two division rivals that didn’t face Team A, all four teams of its “interconference” division schedule, the two teams that finished in the same divisional spot the previous season that didn’t face Team A, and the team of its “intraconference” division schedule that didn’t face Team A. That leaves just 8 teams in the other conference that could go 16-0.

The first team in the other conference that goes 16-0 (Team C) eliminates from a 16-0 possibility, at a minimum, its three division rivals and the team that finished in the same divisional spot the previous season that didn’t face Team A or Team B. If the “intraconference” division opponents for Team C are not the same as the “interconference” division opponents for Team A or Team B, Team C also eliminates the other 3 teams of that division.

If, however, they are the same, a fourth team (Team D) could go 16-0.

My allergies are acting up too much to head out for the game, but I’ve got the not-so-big screen tuned into Channel 12.1 (or 34.1 if your PSIP is not working right) here in Milwaukee. I’ve got the iPod Touch fired up to keep up on Twitter, but the main focus will be on the Packers whupping up on the Vikes.

Shoebox undoubtedly has a different take on that since he’s on the other side of the Mississippi (BTW, I see 3 picks, including a pick-6).

Once again, I proved that picking NFL games straight-up is easier than taking candy from a baby, but picking against the spread is the hardest thing in the universe. Let’s review the carnage:

Tennessee 10 @ Pittsburgh 13 (-6.5-LOSS) – The Hines Ward fumble as Pittsburgh was headed in for a touchdown was the appropriate start to the season. Oh, did I mention I hate overtime?
Chicago 15 @ Green Bay 21 (-3.5) – Both offensive lines were, in a word, offensive. Fortunately, the Bears’ o-line problems extended to their punt unit. Oh yeah; the under hit too.
Minnesota 34 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 20 – Or at least it was an easy picking.
Detroit 27 @ New Orleans 45 (-13.5) – TIIIIMBEEEEEEERRRRR!!!!!
Miami 7 @ Atlanta 19 (-4) – What did I say about the Wildcat on Thursday?
Kansas City 24 (+13) @ Baltimore 38 – I saw the scores. Now I’m a believer!
Philadelphia 38 @ Carolina 10 (+2.5) – …and boy did that object move.
Denver 12 @ Cincinnati 7 (-4) – It figures that the Game of the Weak would feature the Play of the Week.
New York Jets 24 (+5) @ Houston 7 – The Barking Dog is back, and he is HUNGRY!
Jacksonville 12 (+7-WIN) @ Indianapolis 14 – Mirror, mirror on the wall, what’s the closest rivalry of all?
Dallas 34 (-6) @ Tampa Bay 21 – I may not know my spreads, but I know my overs.
San Francisco 20 @ Arizona 16 (-6) – …but passing to Gore plus the Super Loser Curse equals disaster.
Washington 17 @ New York Giants 23 (-6.5-LOSS) – It’s a good thing the Giants don’t play in New York City; Eli fired the shotgun 18 timees.
St. Louis 0 (+8.5) @ Seattle 28 – I’m sure there’s a couple of high school teams can beat the Lambs.
Buffalo 24 @ New England 25 (-11-LOSS) – That was a collapse of historic proportions from the first and only team to lose 4 Championship Games That Cannot Be Named™ in a row.
San Diego 24 (-9-LOSS) @ Oakland 20 – And then there was one running back worth taking in the first round of a fantasy draft.

That leaves me 7-9 ATS, 13-3 straight-up, and 2-0 on the over/under bonus plays. All in all, not a bad Weak One considering my historical suckitude on this.

My joints are healed up after a disastrous 2008 and a meeting with Vito the Pipelayer. I can smell fall in the air, the first tree near the bunker is turning colors, and we’ve got the king of sports starting up tonight. As always, the lines come from Bodog, the nose picks are against the spread, and if you decide to bet using them, the management of No Runny Eggs cannot be held responsible for any legal, illegal or medical bills incurred.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) – This is oddly reminiscent of when the Tennesseans were in Houston and known as the Oilers. If only this were in January in the snow, it would be a perfect game.
Chicago @ Green Bay (-3.5) – Meet the new boss; same as the old boss. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the over/under is 46, so run, don’t walk to your local bookie and limbo the under.
Minnesota (-4.5) @ Cleveland – It’s going to be easy pickings for the Vikings’ defense (side note; I’m trying to not drive away the Minnesota readership this year, at least before Week 4).
Detroit @ New Orleans (-13.5) – Let there be lumber!
Miami @ Atlanta (-4) – Now that we’ve had the Wildcat for a full season, it can be stopped. Without that, the Dolphins are nothing.
Kansas City (+13) @ Baltimore – I know the Chefs are on the menu, but I am not at all convinced that the OldBrowns can score.
Philadelphia @ Carolina (+2.5) – It’s the case of the resistable force (Eagles with a 1-3 road opener record in the last 4 years) meeting the movable object (Panthers with a 1-4 home opener record over the last 5 years).
Denver @ Cincinnati (-4) – This is the Game of the Weak. My sympathies if you are forced to watch this one.
New York Jets (+5) @ Houston – If you had a 401(k) left, I’d recommend raiding it for this barking dog. Having a mobile MASH unit going into Week 1 like the Texans have is hazardous to a team’s season.
Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis – There is one certainty about this rivalry; the game will be closer than it appears in the mirror.
Dallas (-6) @ Tampa Bay – The only thing I can figure is the bookies flip-flopped the over/under with the Packer/Bear game. Take the over-39 and RUN like Marion Barber.
San Francisco @ Arizona (-6) – All Gore and no passing makes the Niners very beatable.
Washington @ New York Giants (-6.5) – I wonder if Eli Manning will use the shotgun.
St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle – I know a few college teams that could probably beat what either of these teams will be trotting out of the trainers’ room.
Buffalo @ New England (-11) – History will be made as the Bills will become the first team to lose 12 straight to one opponent.
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland – For extra cash, take LT -9 against the Raiders.

Revisions/extensions (5:18 pm 9/10/2009) – If you’re a wimp and simply want the winners, head on down to Ick’s Corner for them, and to enter Ick’s straight-up contest.

The NFL kicks off tonight, so it’s time once again to crack out the crystal ball. Let’s see if the tape-and-glue job holds up any better this year…

NFC North
Green Bay (10-6) – The good: The starters look dominant, especially that new-fangled 3-4 defense. The bad: If ANYBODY gets hurt, this season is lost. The ugly: Turkey Day in Detroit. The takeaway: A third-place schedule is just what the Packer faithful ordered.
Minnesota (9-7) – The good: AP, a stifling defense, and a serious upgrade at QB. The bad: That upgrade involves a head case. The ugly: Favre is suggesting that he won’t play the entire year, and Jackson/Rosenfels at 100% are not as good as Favre at 50%. The takeaway: It’s a yo-yo year.
Chicago (8-8) – The good: A shiny new QB. The bad: The defense is yet another year older. The ugly: Sophomore Slump is scheduled for Matt Forte. The takeaway: Bears fans; be thankful you get to play the Lions twice.
Detroit (1-15) – The good: No more curses, no more Millen, nobody has ever gone winless for two straight seasons in the NFL. The bad: No improvement on the field. The ugly: They’re so bad The Onion made fun of them. The takeaway: Their best chance of beating somebody is the trap game on Turkey Day.

And the rest of the NFL, with the minimalist approach:
NFC East:
New York Giants
Philadelphia (Wild Card)
Dallas
Washington

NFC South:
Atlanta
Carolina (Wild Card)
New Orleans
Tampa Bay

NFC West:
Arizona (by default)
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis

AFC North:
Pittsburgh
Baltimore (Wild Card)
Cincinnati
Cleveland

AFC East:
New England
Miami
New York Jets
Buffalo

AFC South:
Tennessee
Indianapolis (Wild Card)
Jacksonville
Houston

AFC West:
San Diego
Denver
Kansas City
Oakland

The Championship Game That Cannot Be Mentioned™:
Pittsburgh over Atlanta

The Week 1 picks will be up shortly.

DeWalt will not be back on the #17 Roush Fenway Ford driven by Matt Kenseth next year. That ends a 10-year relationship with Roush/Roush Fenway, and an 11-year relationship with Kenseth.

Roush Fenway needs to lose a team after this season to get down to the Hendrick-standard 4 teams. Kenseth does have a multi-year deal with Roush Fenway, along with Greg Biffle (whose sponsor, 3M, is not signed beyond 2009) and Carl Edwards (whose sponsor, Aflac, is signed through 2011). David Ragan and Jamie McMurray are currently signed only through 2009, though Ragan’s sponsor, UPS, does have a multi-year deal with Roush Fenway. Let the speculation begin.

Now that my bracket has been been beheaded courtesy Villanova, with a 3rd Final Four team also eliminated, I’m ready to pack my bags for the one place worse than Detroit, the Hartz Mountains of Asia.

In lieu of marinara, I ask that you send ligaments.

Good news – out of the 6 games I had an interest in today, my teams won all 6. Yes, Gonzaga, Duke and Purdue (yes, I did take a couple of Big Ten teams to be Sweet) were too close, but as the title says, I had no further damage.

Now, the bad news – because North Carolina and Villanova both won, I can do no better than 3rd in the AoSHQ bracket. At least I have more teams locked into the Sweet 16 than locked out.

Well, we’re through the first round, and it’s time to review the damage so far. First, let’s take the shredded predictions:

The Marquette Care Bear…er, Golden Chickens will be able to beat the rush out of Boise tomorrow. Oops; they somehow survived Utah State. Unfortunately, because they’re the nightcap, the Wisconsin Bagders can’t say the same. Actually, the Badgers managed to come back to force OT and ultimately win.
– Once again, no #16 seed will win. Louisville did have a 1st-half scare, and East Tennessee State almost closed the deal on Pitt. However, the #16s are now a perfect 0-100 in the actual tourney (not counting the play-in game between #64 and #65).
– This year’s Cindy is Butler, with Mississippi State being the lowest-seeded 1st-round winner. Picked the wrong Horizon team; Cleveland State was the lowest-seed 1st-round winner.
– Call me crazy, but I see three Big Ten teams making it out of the first round. Off by 1.
– For those of you participating in the third annual “Which #1 will be knocked out first” poll, I am not calling for a repeat of last year’s all-#1 Final Four. In fact, Pitt and UNC will not make the Sweet 16. Yet to be determined.

Only the safest of predictions came in, and then only because Pitt finally got the choke out of their throats. So, what did that do to the bracket?

– 11 first-round losses
– 5 games completely meaningless to me this weekend
– A quarter of my Elite Eight dead and buried
– My Southern regional champ packed up and back in class

I could look on the bright side and point out my national championship game is intact. However, I tend to say, “I positively hate this fucking place,” when asked for a positive attitude check. Instead, I’ll apply some statistical analysis:

Current-round loss rate – 11/32
Next-round loss rate – 5/16
3rd-round-out loss rate – 1/4 (call it a bit higher)
4th-round-out loss rate – 1/4 (call it a bit lower)

Projected number of missing Sweet 16 teams after 2nd round = 5 + (11 * 11/32) = 9 missing Sweet 16 teams
Projected number of missing Elite 8 teams after 2nd round = 2 + (6 * 5/16) = 4 missing Elite 8 teams
Projected number of missing Final 4 teams after 2nd round = 1 + (3 * 1/4) = 2 missing Final 4 teams
Estimated probability of missing at least one of the National Championship Game teams after the 2nd round = 50%

I could extrapolate further, but it’s too depressing.

I don’t know why I do these things. The first game saw me lose one of my Final Four teams, and a second Final Four team almost choked themselves right out of the tourney. I also lost a second Sweet 16 team on my way to a 10-6 start.

The really bad news – the first day is usually my “best”. I am ready to declare the Bouncing Mozzarella rejected.