No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics – Wisconsin' Category

July 27, 2010

Tuesday Hot Read – Letter In Bottles’ interview with Ron Johnson

by @ 18:53. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Steve S. over at Letters in Bottles interviewed Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson yesterday, and he fleshed out Johnson’s views on foreign policy and trade, a couple of items not exactly on the front burner of the Senate race. The interview was expansive enough that the transcript took two posts. I recommend reading them both:

Part 1 – foreign policy

Part 2 – trade and economics

I highly recommend reading both halves. Great job with the interview, Steve.

Revisions/extensions (6:53 pm 7/27/2010) – I forgot what day of the week this is :-)

July 26, 2010

Well, you’re wrong – Neumann property tax edition

by @ 12:10. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin, Taxes.

On Spike TV’s “MXC”, a humorous dub of Tokyo Broadcast System’s “Takeshi’s Castle”, the Captain Tenneal character had a catch phrase he used right after he asked the contestants an opening question. That phrase, “Well, you’re wrong,” applies to both the Mark Neumann campaign’s sales pitch of his property tax shift and some of the critics of that plan.

First things first, it is not a tax cut (with a possible exception which I’ll address as a concern in a bit). Rather, it is a shift of when the property taxes are paid. Instead of the 2011 property tax (the first bill that would be affected by Neumann’s proposal) being paid either at the end of 2011 or over the first 5 months of 2012, it would be paid over the course of the entirety of 2012.

On a related note, the “no other enterprise waits an entire year to bill for services” bit is a bunch of smoke and mirrors. Who here has paid their entire 2010 income tax? Who filed their 2010 income tax return back in April? Indeed, because the property tax bill comes in December of the named year with the ability to settle the entire tax bill before the end of the year, the dating of a particular property tax bill makes more sense than the dating of the income tax bill, which cannot be settled in full until sometime in the following year.

Indeed, Neumann’s plan, unless he simply decides to call the 2011 property tax the 2012 property tax, makes it worse. Instead of waiting a maximum of 17 months (to the end of the following May) for the final payment, one would wait a full 2 years for the final payment.

As for the criticism that the tax deductibility would be lost, that also is false. For those that itemize on their federal income tax return, the amount paid in property tax is deductible on the same year’s tax return that the property tax is paid, regardless of the date on the property tax bill. The reason why a lot of people pay their property taxes in full in December is that they don’t want to wait two return cycles to deduct the property tax payment. In fact, I am sure there are some people who wait to pay one year’s property tax until January (or even May) and then turn around and pay the next year’s property tax in December to get effectively a “double” reduction on the second year’s income tax.

As for the plan itself, there are two concerns I have. The first is that, once an owner decides to get in, there’s no way out, not even for a new owner.

The second relates to the liability of the previous owner in a sale. Currently, tax liability for the previous owner extends to the month of the sale. Neumann was unclear on whether that means the previous owner gets to walk away from a year’s worth of taxes or whether that owner has to pay property taxes on his or her old property for 12 months after the sale.

Beyond that, I could just as easily flip a coin weighted slightly against the proposal. Offering a smaller per-payment tax bill that is paid more often will allow property-taxing authorities to grease the skids for a bigger property tax hike.

July 22, 2010

Thursday Hot View – Ald. Jim Witkowiak’s testimony to GAB regarding vote fraud

Kevin Fischer points to a rather remarkable presentation by Milwaukee Alderman Jim Witkowiak during yesterday’s Government Accountability Board hearing. Wisconsin Eye brought its cameras to the meeting, which first dealt with challenges to the nomination papers, and moved to an indepemdent candidate for state Assembly who wanted to put “NOT the ‘whiteman’s bitch'” as her statement of principle on the ballot (the GAB board narrowly did not overturn the staff recommendation of not allowing it, with 3 of 5 present board members voting to allow it and the potential 4th/deciding vote for allowing it absent).

Immediately after that, the GAB began taking open public comments. Ald. Witkowiak was second on the list, and he explained how both same-day registration and a lack of an ID check can and does affect elections, even to the point of changing the results. I do recommend watching the entire appearance, which begins at the 1:50:50 mark of part 2 of WisEye’s coverage and runs to the end of part 2. A quick summary:

  • In the spring 2000 election, Witkowiak lost his re-election bid by 17 votes.
  • During the recount, after the campaign of Witkowiak’s opponent admitted to him they caused irregularities, Witkowiak found about 200 people who didn’t exist yet voted in the election, scattered between those who registered at the polls and those who claimed to be somebody they were not. The Milwaukee Election Commission did disallow a bunch of votes, but because there is no way to tell who the disqualified voters voted for, it was a random vote removal and thus did not change the result of the election.
  • An assistant city attorney who sat in on the 2000 recount process said that Witkowiak, “There’s more meat in this sandwich than I’ve ever seen before in my life.” Of course, this is Milwaukee, so nothing was done..
  • Witkowiak thought he was done with politics after 2000, but the residents of his district pulled him back into the race in 2004, and he once again became an alderman.
  • Fast forward to 2008. Witkowiak found that 400 people had registered at the polls in the spring primary, which for the first time in Wisconsin also included the Presidential primary (previously, the Presidential primary was held with the spring general election). Since Witkowiak had a spring general election to run in, he wanted to get a hold of those 400 to campaign to them. After a bit of a delay, the Milwaukee Election Commission gave them to him.
  • Witkowiak did a mailing to those 400, and about 80 of those mailings came back as undeliverable. He then went out to try to find those 80, and while he did find a few that existed, he couldn’t find about 75, with reasons ranging from people living at or managing apartments at the location never hearing of the alleged registered voter to the address being a non-residential property to the address simply not existing.
  • Witkowiak turned over the evidence to the Milwaukee County District Attorney and the Milwaukee Police Department. Guess what happened? If you said, “Nothing,” give yourself a prize.

July 21, 2010

Beyond the numbers – July gubernatorial edition (now with Walker)

by @ 8:38. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Revisions/extensions (12:19 pm 7/21/2010) – The GAB finally got done collating Scott Walker’s report, so a look at it can now be made. That’s been appended to the bottom of the post.

The Government Accountability Board’s Campaign Finance Information System has once again proven inadequate to handle Scott Walker’s fundraising efforts, taking over 12 hours to generate the report but we can at least take a look at the other two major candidates’ finances for the first 6 months of the year.

First up, Democrat Tom Barrett. On the surface, things look rather normal, with about $1.8 million raised from individuals, another $191,000 from “conduits”, a relatively-minimal $45,000 in “in-kind” donations, and $348,000 from PACs for a total of $2,390,821.96 raised. Because, unlike Neumann and Walker, he does not face a serious challenger (just a person whose campaign Christian Schneider describes as a “crazy train”), the campaign only spent a tick over $1 million, and has $2,894,232.24 cash on hand with just under $11,000 in unspecified obligations to US Bank and no outstanding loans.

There are, however, a few “gems” in the report. With the ongoing government takeover of health care, an unusually large number of health-care providers decided to donate to Tom Barrett in what appears to be a desperate attempt to be the last private health-care provider standing. I won’t hold my breath for the media to notice that Big Med, like Big Finance, has shifted their donations to Democrats.

Speaking of Big Finance, it looks like Barrett is the official candidate of M&I Bank, at least before Walker’s report became available. A couple pages’ worth of donations (mostly in the conduit section) came from M&I employees.

Another significant donation base for Barrett is the “unemployed”. Another failing of the CFIS system is the lack of sortability, but the best I can determine, somewhere around 2 dozen “unemployed” people donated at least $100, with at least 7 topping the $1,000 donation mark, despite a lack of employment. I’d like to meet their financial planners; I can’t exactly afford to drop $1,000 on anything.

That brings me to Mark Neumann. His campaign took in $294,230 in individual donations, $1,760 in “conduit” donations and $23,181 in “in-kind” donations, and Mark loaned the campaign $2,525,070 the first 6 months of the year. Campaign expenses of $2,758,625.49, including $880,000 in loan repayments (more on that in a bit), left the campaign with $1,059,922.73 cash on hand, with $2,721,120 in personal loans still outstanding.

JR Ross of WisPolitics notes there’s a discrepancy between what Neumann’s campaign staff released and what the report has. That stems from the decision by the PR flacks to effectively not count the $880,000 in “flash cash” Neumann loaned his campaign on 12/31/2009 to make his numbers work and took back on 1/4/2010, as that $880,000 paid back was replaced by fresh personal loans.

I have to give credit to Patrick Marley and Lee Bergquist of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for twigging onto the “flash cash”, though they didn’t quite expound on it. The quick explanation:

  • On 12/31/2009, the last day covered by the January 2010 continuing report, Mark Neumann loaned the campaign $970,000 to bring the total personal loan amount to $1,076,050.
  • That $970,000 represented almost the entirety of the $974,177.55 cash on hand at the end of the day 12/31/2009.
  • On 1/4/2010, after a minimal donation take and taking care of the expense of meeting the payroll, the campaign paid back Neumann $880,000 of that loan.

They also noted that Neumann loaned the campaign $1,000,000 on June 30, the last reporting day for this report. Once again, that represents almost the entirety of the cash on hand. However, since the campaign is in full-spending mode (as it should be), I don’t think we’ll find a “repayment” in the next report.

Finally, Scott Walker. His campaign took in just over $2.1 million in individual donations, about $222,000 in “conduits”, about $28,000 in in-kind donations, and just under $145,000 from PACs for a total of $2,589,997.95 raised. Campaign expenses of $2,016,721.81, including $101,090 in contemporary returned contributions and another $5,000 returned contribution initially made in 2005, left $2,571,774.80 cash on hand.

Speaking of those returned contributions, while the Walker campaign was the only one to specifically itemize returned contributions, the Barrett campaign noted that it returned some contributions in early July.

M&I appears to be playing both sides of the aisle, making significant donations to both Barrett and Walker. Again, the CFIS system does not allow for easy sorting of donations, so I cannot do more than a rough eyeball of the reports. The volumes of contributions are roughly equal between the two campaigns.

There is an oddity with the CFIS format of Walker’s report. Every other gubernatorial report that had multiple sources of individual donations had them in the order of monetary, conduit and in-kind (with Neumann’s loans appearing between the conduit and in-kind sections). That order on Walker’s report was reversed.

One more thing – there is exactly one active gubernatorial candidate people associated with Graef-USA donated to the past year, and it’s not Walker.

July 20, 2010

Tuesday Hot Read – Christian Schneider’s “Jim Doyle’s Legacy, On One Page”

by @ 17:47. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Christian Schneider absolutely disembowels a one-page press release from Gov. Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/HoChunk-For Sale) reacting to the State Supreme Court smackdown of his $200 million theft from the Patients Compensation Fund. There’s so much goodness, it’s almost impossible to choose just one morsel to tempt you with, but I’ll go with the delicious irony that is the postscript:

As a postscript to all this, there’s a hidden portion of the Justice Prosser’s majority decision in the case overturning Doyle’s raid that deserves notice. In paragraph 58 of the opinion, Prosser cites a 1995 Attorney General’s opinion that points out the “longstanding view in Wisconsin law that trust funds are to be treated differently than general revenue, and that the state has less power to regulate the use of trust funds.”

The author of that quote?

Jim Doyle.

Do read the rest, from a reminder that Doyle had his eyes on the fund the moment he got into the governor’s mansion to the threat from Doyle to punish those that exposed the theft.

The term “trust fund” means something, even if it is a state government-run one

by @ 15:57. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Revisions/extensions (5:03 pm 7/20/2010) – After reviewing the roll call vote for the conference substitute amendment version of the budget (i.e. the version that passed the Legislature) anid finding both then-Speaker Mike Huebsch and current Minority “Leader” Jeff Fitzgerald on the aye side, I added the Assembly “Republican” “leadership” to the scorn list.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court, in a 5-2 decision, ruled that the “transfer” of $200 million from the Injured Patients and Families Compensation Fund by governor Jim Doyle, Assembyman (and candidate for lieutenant governor) Brett Davis, the Legislative Democrats, and what passed for Assembly “Republican” “leadership” for the purpose of allowing general spending to increase by $200 million more than it otherwise could was unconstitutional as the fund had all three elements of a trust, and as named beneficiaries, the Wisconsin Medical Society and a specific doctor who joined the lawsuit have a constitutionally-protected property interest in and an equitable title to the assets of the fund.

The end of the majority’s discussion sums things up rather well (emphasis in the original):

¶99 In sum, any removal of money from the Fund for an improper purpose is an unconstitutional taking of the health care providers’ property interest in the Fund because it infringes upon their rights to the security and integrity of the Fund, to realize the Fund’s investment earnings, and to have excess judgments paid to proper claimants. When money is improperly taken from the Fund, the health care providers are deprived of their right to have that money managed on their behalf. Furthermore, any such removal of money will almost certainly result in an increase in health care providers’ assessments. If assessments are not raised, the solvency of the Fund is jeopardized, increasing the risk that the Fund will be unable to pay excess judgments. If the Fund becomes unable to pay excess judgments, the cost of those judgments will have to be borne by either the health care providers or the proper claimants, both of whom are the express beneficiaries of the Fund….

¶101 We would be hard pressed to say that the legislature could not discontinue the Injured Patients and Families Compensation Fund prospectively, provided that it honored all loss liabilities created up to the date of discontinuation. The Fund is not immutable in its present form. But we are frankly taken aback by the Secretary’s position that the legislature could discontinue the Fund and seize all its assets, save only those assets necessary to pay off existing claims, and renege on the loss liabilities to existing victims whose claims are not yet perfected. This is not only the logical extension of the Secretary’s position, it is the actual articulation of the Secretary’s position, both to the circuit court and before this court. A failure on our part to recognize the property interests at stake in the Fund would be an open invitation to the legislature to take money from the Fund at will.

¶102 We are sensitive to the changing needs of state government and the basic principle that one legislature cannot bind another. But that cannot mean that anything goes, that recognized property interests evaporate when the winds shift. The legislature created a “trust” for health care providers and their patients and families, and it pronounced that trust “irrevocable.” We take the legislature at its word.

The financial situation of the fund as outlined in the “Background and Procedural History” section of the majority opinion (starting at paragraph 23) is even more devastating than the mere “transfer” of the money. At the end of FY2007 (i.e. June 30, 2007), before Davis and the Legislative Democrats approved Doyle’s “transfer” of the money, the fund had a net asset balance of +$94.4 million on total assets of $798.5 million.

At the time the first transfer of $71.5 million from the fund to another fund that had been shorted $200 million in general funds was made in October 2007, there were not enough liquid assets in the fund to allow the transfer to happen directly. The fund temporarily borrowed $51.3 million from a third state fund to make it happen, with repayments including interest charges.

The same lack of liquid assets occurred when the second transfer of $128.5 million happened in July 2008. The fund owed $76.8 million to the State Investment Fund as of June 30, 2009, and had incurred $2.5 million in interest.

Also as of June 30, 2009, the fund had assets of $645.1 million, total loss liabilities (what the fund expects to have to pay out for incidents that occured prior to June 30, 2009 whether or not claims had been filed by that date) of $675.4 million, and a net asset balance of -$109 million.

Of note, that net asset balance of -$109 million is larger than the $100 million supplemental appropriation made in the FY2008-2009 budget in case the fund couldn’t cover the judgements it was designed to cover.

That’s right – the Patient Compensation Fund did not have the cash to give, but Doyle, Davis, and the bipartisan Party-In-Government stole the money anyway.

July 19, 2010

Monday Hot Read – Tom McMahon’s “Pomposity and Hypocrisy in Wisconsin”

by @ 13:40. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I don’t know how many times I’ve told you to read 4-Block World, but it’s time to tell you again. Today’s 4-Block deals with the two Democrats running at the top of the ballot in Wisconsin and just one of their “do as I say” moments:

Once again, I’ve made the executive decision to shut down comments here.

July 17, 2010

Mid-July poll-a-copia part tres – governor edition

by @ 9:47. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I wonder if semi-retired pro Bill Christopherson will continue to claim Rasmussen Reports is a Republican outfit after reading the mid-July Rasmussen update (Who am I kidding? Rasmussen could have Barrett up 20 points against both opponents and he’d still bash Rasmussen for being a Republican outfit.)

This round is quite a bit more favorable to Tom Barrett, who is looking to serve Jim Doyle’s third term. Barrett’s favorables improved from 42% favorable/44% unfavorable/-1 “Passion” Index (the very favorable percentage minus the very unfavorable percentage, and the favorability analogue to Rasmussen’s Approval Index) to 49% favorable/42% unfavorable/+1 “Passion” Index, and Doyle’s job approval rating improved from 35% approve/64% disapprove/-30 Approval Index to 40% approve/59% disapprove/-26 Approval Index.

The big loser was Mark Neumann, whose negative campaign is backfiring specactularly. His favorables slipped from 49% favorable/37% unfavorable/-3 “Passion” Index to 47% favorable/38% unfavorable/-5 “Passion” Index. That caused the head-to-head matchup against Barrett to flip from a 47%-39% Neumann advantage to a 45%-43% Barrett advantage, which represents both Neumann’s lowest support total and his first disadvantage in the campaign (the two were tied in late-April).

Neumann’s main target, Scott Walker, was relatively unscathed by the attacks the past few weeks. While his own 8-point lead against Barrett (49%-41%) was halved to 48%-44%, most of the movement was Barrett increasing his percentage from the pool of those who hadn’t made up their mind. Walker’s favorables were a mixed bag; while the favorable/unfavorable split improved from 51% favorable/35% unfavorable to 55% favorable/32% unfavorable, the “Passion” Index slipped from +14 to +11.

July 16, 2010

Behind the jobs numbers, Wisconsin edition

I’m sure you’ve heard the spin that the unemployment rate in Wisconsin dropped 3/10ths of a point to a seasonally-adjusted 7.9% last month, and that it was a full percentage point lower than that of June 2009. A deeper look at the numbers, however, show that it’s not because private entities are hiring, but rather people no longer even trying to look for work.

First, let’s take the seasonally-adjusted numbers for a comparison between May and June. While the ranks of the unemployed (or at least those who looked for work in the prior 4 weeks) dropped by 9,700, the ranks of the employed also dropped by 3,900. That means the civilian labor force dropped by 13,600, or 0.45%. Meanwhile, both private-sector employers (to the tune of 1,000) and government (to the tune of 7,200, half by the federal government as the temporary census workers were let go, the other half evenly split between state and local governments as the school year ended) shed a total of 8,200 jobs.

Next, let’s compare the non-adjusted numbers between June 2009 and June 2010. 41,600 (or 1.48%) fewer people were employed this June versus last June, and 39,400 (or 13.71%) fewer people were on the actively-seeking-work portion of the unemployment rolls, resulting in a civilian labor force drop of 81,000 (or 2.57%). The private sector cut 23,100 (or 0.98%) jobs, while government added 5,000 (or 1.17%) jobs. While state government did cut 3,200 (or 3.33%) jobs, the federal government grew by 4,400 (or 14.72%) and local government grew by 3,800 (or 1.26%). The only sectors that added jobs in the last year were mining (+300/9.38%), durable-goods manufacturing (+700/0.27%), admin support/waste management (+5,100/4.36%; some of which are likely local government), education (+3,000/6.16%; mostly state and local government), health care/social assistance (+4,100/1.12%; with a significant government component), and accomodation/food service (+4,800/2.09%).

Hopefully Wisconsin can survive the local version of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy – the DDS (Doyle-Decker-Sheridan) economy until that troika leaves power in the state. I don’t think the state can survive another full year of this.

July 15, 2010

Mid-July poll-a-copia part deux

by @ 19:36. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I am rather hesitant to talk about the latest Badger Poll on the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races (#30 for those coming here after the next one comes out) for several methodology reasons, but since polling is the spice of political life, I’ll do it. The big problem with the poll is the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, which conducted the poll, took 31 days, between June 9 and July 10, to get to 500 adults (466 registered voters and 297 likely voters). 31 days is a couple of eternities in politics. This effect is especially pronounced in the Senate race, where Ron Johnson, the Republican candidate the pollsters asked about, had just started a major ad campaign. This is borne out through Rasmussen’s polling, where 32% of those surveyed at the end of May had not heard enough about Johnson to form an opinion. That number dropped to 24% at the end of June and 18% this week.

Related to that, the UW crew did not attempt to force anybody who did not express an immediate preference to choose a candidate, though they do promise to do so in the next poll. In the Senate race, a full 55% of all those surveyed, 51% of registered voters, and 38% of likely voters (the last representing a plurality) did not express an immediate preference. On the gubernatorial side, 52% of those surveyed, 48% of registered voters, and 37% of likely voters did not express an immediate preference.

The last major flaw is that the UW crew did not even attempt to separate Scott Walker and Mark Neumann in the head-to-head against Tom Barrett. Instead, the second half of the “who would you vote for” question used “one of the Republican candidates”.

Related to that, the while the actual head-to-head question did randomly rotate between the Republican and the Democrat, and the favorability question was similarly rotated among the people asked about, the Democrat was always named first in the lead-up to the head-to-head question.

I suppose I should start with the biggest bit of news – the partisan split. The difference between the overall split of 40% independent/other, 31% Democrat, 29% Republican and the the likely-voter split of 40% independent/other, 36% Republican, 24% Democrat (mentioned in the gubernatorial poll release) can only be good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats. Indeed, a very-quick look back through the archives did not find a previous mention of the demographics of who the pollsters determined to be likely voters.

Among those relatively-few likely voters, Russ Feingold leads Ron Johnson 33%-28%. However, beyond the caution flags of the high undecided percentage and the lengthy time of the poll at a point where one of the candidates was still in the process of introducing himself, there is a third item – that lead is still within the 5.7% margin of error for the small sample size. Further, 87% of those surveyed and 80% of likely voters didn’t know enough about Johnson to form an opinion.

What can be inferred from the overwhelming preference for a Republican versus Tom Barrett for governor (overall 32%-15%, and 43%-19% among likely voters) is that Wisconsin simply does not want a third Jim Doyle term. It also shows that the anti-Milwaukee factor in Northern Wisconsin (defined by UW as pretty much everything north of Highway 33) is pretty much overrated, though most of those in Norther Wisconsin haven’t heard of any of the candidates. Walker’s favorability split in Southern Wisconsin is 33% favorable/20% unfavorable, and his favorability split in Northern Wisconsin is 17% favorable/7% unfavorable. Mark Neumann’s favorability split in the south is 18% favorable/16% unfavorable, and his favorability split in the north is 15% favorable/7% unfavorable. Tom Barrett’s favorability split in the south is 33% favorable/25% unfavorable, and his favorability split in the north is 23% favorable/13% unfavorable.

What a return on Porkulus investment

by @ 16:01. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

For once, DPW chair Mike Tate uttered a grain of truth in a press release touting the power of Porkulus. Since the DPW will likely revise and extend the comments before too long, I decided to grab the admission that Porkulus “supported 63 jobs here in this state” (do click for the full-sized pic).

The mo’ is with Johnson

Rasmussen Reports has upped their polling tempo ahead of the election, and the news is very good for Ron Johnson. In a poll taken July 13 of 750 likely voters, he has pulled ahead of Russ Feingold for the first time, 47%-46%. That compares favorably to a Rasmussen late-June poll that had Feingold up 46%-45%, and a Public Policy late-June poll that had Feingold up 45%-43%. The Slimeroad Slime Machine still isn’t working, as Johnson’s favorables climbed to 51% favorable (up 19 points from June)/30% unfavorable (up 5 points from June)/+11 “Passion” Index (up 2 points from June).

The toplines are, once again, more favorable to the Democrats than the national picture. Once again, President Obama’s Wisconsin approval ratings (49% approve/51% disapprove/-14 Approval Index) are better than the national numbers (48% approve/52% disapprove/-17 Approval Index). Various other questions, from Gulf drilling to PlaceboCare, from illegal immigration to the Tea Party Movement, reveal a slightly more leftward tilt (or more properly, a lesser rightward tilt) in Wisconsin than nationally. Feingold also improved his favorables to 53% favorable (up 1 point from June)/43% unfavorable (down 2 points from June)/+5 “Passion” Index (up 5 points from June).

The news isn’t nearly as good for Dave Westlake. A couple weeks after getting to within 6 points of Feingold, Westlake now trails 51%-37%. Despite being in the race for well over a year, he is still so unknown 31% of those surveyed could not form an opinion on him, and only 13% had a strong opinion. While his overall favorability improved to 36% favorable (up 2 points from June)/31% unfavorable (unchanged from June), his “Passion” Index dropped another point to -5.

Revisions/extensions (1:39 pm 7/15/2010) – Just for grins, I decided to see if I could see whether the polls back in 1998 indicated that Mark Neumann was as close as his 2-point loss. CNN came through, and the closest Neumann was that year was a late-October Market Shares/WTMJ-TV poll that had him down 3 points. Two other contemporary polls had Feingold up 7 points, and polls earlier showed larger leads for Feingold.

That means this race is the closest for Feingold since he pulled off the upset in 1992.

Thursday Hot Read – Patrick McIlheran’s “The Great Train Robbery”

by @ 10:04. Filed under Choo-choos, Politics - Wisconsin.

Not only did I “borrow” the concept from Charlie Sykes, but today I also am “borrowing” the source material. While Charlie focused on the killing of Badger Coach (as 71,000 of the 120,000 who take Badger Coach would, at least theoretically, go from the unsubsidized Badger buses to the heavily-subisidized choo-choo), I’ll focus on another part of the piece:

But even when the train stops in downtown Madison (or Milwaukee), passengers will have to get to or from it. That’s why that dream trip involves a train to the train. The $220 million cost of Madison’s planned light rail system is not included in the high-speed train’s cost. Nor is the $100 million cost of the downtown trolley that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett wants to ferry people from the train station.

And even with that kind of extra money, the fact is that most trips either start or end somewhere other than near the train. Clients incorrigibly move their offices out to the University Research Park, seven miles west of Monona Terrace. Or you move to Franklin.

All this crimps the speed advantage of a train when you add the time it takes to wait for the light rail, to ride it, to transfer to the big train, to wait for the big train to leave.

Interestingly, buses have the advantage here. Meier, whose nostalgia appears limited to having found and bought a 1957 GMC model his company once used, notes that Badger used to have a depot in downtown Madison. Not anymore: It was scarcely used, so the company closed the depot and took customers where they wanted to go.

“That’s one of our advantages as a bus,” says Meier. With tires instead of tracks, “if a stop isn’t very popular, we can stop going there” and instead go directly where people prefer. “We can adjust.”

P-Mac inexplicably forgot about the several-hundred-million-dollar local-bus-service-speed KRM disaster, for which a transfer is also required. Including KRM still doesn’t make it any easier for the train crowd to get to Franklin, or the North Shore, or Waukesha, or…(insert itinerary that doesn’t include the Lower East Side here).

There’s actually one more thing that I should touch on:

The money is part of $8 billion being passed out by the Obama administration in grants to spur new high-speed passenger trains nationwide. Wrapped into the much larger Obama stimulus package, the money is a product of Washington’s lowered inhibitions when it comes to getting value for the taxpayer dollar.

Wisconsin’s grant specifically was part of a scheme to tie Midwest cities to Chicago. Backers speak of trains displacing short-haul flights — so instead of us changing planes in Chicago, we’ll change trains there, or we’ll just do business there and forget about traveling on to St. Louis or Singapore.

That brings up another thing – there is no direct rail service between either Madison or Milwaukee and either of Chicago’s airports, nor would there be direct rail service between Madison and either downtown Chicago or Mitchell International. It would be a rather lengthy train trip with a transfer (or two to CTA’s El for the Chicago airports) if one wanted to get to either Chicago or a real airport from Madison. The funny thing is, even Amtrak provides direct bus service between Madison and downtown Chicago, while private bus companies provide direct service between Madison and all the major points of interest in Milwaukee and Chicago.

July 14, 2010

Jim Klauser hands Neumann his hat

by @ 9:24. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

In a fresh open letter to Mark Neumann regarding his false claims that spending went up faster in Milwaukee County under Scott Walker than it did at the state level under Jim Doyle, Jim Klauser literally hands Neumann his hat for lunch (letter courtesy Jay Weber):

July 14, 2010 – Mr. Mark Neumann

Dear Mark:

It has been more than five weeks since I wrote to you requesting that you return the contributions Shirley and I made to your campaign. I asked for the return since you had assured us that you would run a positive campaign focusing on the Doyle-Barrett record. You haven’t done that. Even in these last weeks you have expanded your negative attacks beyond your primary opponent to everyone else.

Your campaign treasurer, your son Matt, told me that you would return my contribution if I refuted your claims about your opponent’s record as County Executive. You echoed those comments as well. The numbers you cite for Milwaukee County include capital bonding of $251 million which is expended over a three year period and paid-off over 15-20 years. (This was done to obtain better interest rates) Your analysis of Jim Doyle’s spending did NOT include bonding (which is considerable under Doyle).

You should know, but apparently don’t, that much of what a county government does is mandated and partially funded by either the federal or state government. County government has no control over increases/decreases in such funding. A care management organization is funded at $256 million entirely with state-federal Medicaid dollars.

You fail to mention the substantial reduction in the number of county employees under Walker’s watch. In 2000 county employees on an FTE basis numbered 7,263; in 2010 the number is 5,256. This substantial reduction indicates increased efficiency in Milwaukee County government and a savings to taxpayers.

The bottom line is you aren’t comparing apples to apples; rather your analysis is somewhat akin to fruit salad. By the way you should know, but apparently choose to ignore, that the county executive vetoed increased spending every year; these vetoes were overridden by the county board with the result of increasing spending.

You have used these misrepresented figures to claim that the county budget has increased 26% since 2006 while the state budget has increased 19%. In reality, Milwaukee County’s budget has increased 9% below the rate of inflation of 9.6% which gives Milwaukee County residents a spending reduction in adjusted dollars.

Please return our contributions.

James R. Klauser

If one is inclined to attend one of Neumann’s town halls, I suggest you bring a condiment to help Mark with his hat-eating. Embarrassing moments are what happens when one depends on the likes of One Wisconsin Now to do fiscal research.

June 30, 2010

And then there were three for Lt. Gov.

by @ 16:01. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

I know, I’m a day late to this. Ben Collins dropped out of the Republican race for lieutenant governor yesterday:

When I came back from Afghanistan and entered this campaign for lieutenant governor, it was clear to me how important new leadership in Madison was for the future of our state. As I have traveled across Wisconsin and visited with thousands of families and business owners, my initial view about the need for new leadership has been confirmed.

But as this hard-fought, six-person race for lieutenant governor has developed, I have begun to question whether my passion and ideas for Wisconsin’s future are best used in the lieutenant governor’s race or in the race for governor itself. Where can I most aggressively contribute to the pursuit for new leadership in Wisconsin? How can I best advance the goals of business owners trying to create new jobs? Who really is our best chance to turn Madison upside down and get our state back on track?

In answering each of these questions I arrive at the same conclusion: Scott Walker. As I’ve witnessed Scott campaign across our state, it has become quite difficult to contain my enthusiasm for his message and his vision. The practical, conservative approach Scott brings to government is what Madison has sorely lacked and what state government badly needs. I couldn’t have been more proud watching him earn our party’s near-unanimous endorsement, creating a center of gravity for the party in the process. He is a thoughtful, decent man with the temperament, experience and skills to be a truly transformative governor.

Therefore, I am suspending my campaign for lieutenant governor in order to focus my efforts to ensure Wisconsin’s future is secure in a conservative victory. It will also allow me to focus on my own business and my service with the Army National Guard, both of which remain high priorities.

To the thousands of people who have supported and encouraged me in this race for lieutenant governor, I am deeply grateful. To my opponents remaining in the race, I appreciate your deep concern for Wisconsin and wish each of you the very best on the campaign trail. To my wife and my family, I love and treasure your friendship and support.

To those who believe that the status quo in state government should continue, count me as the latest footsoldier in Scott Walker’s grassroots army to take Wisconsin back.

Ben, I hope this isn’t the last time we hear from you on the political front.

More Poll-a-copia, Dem pollster edition

by @ 15:53. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

In its late-June polls of the Senate and governor’s races, Public Policy Polling has essentially confirmed the extreme closeness of the Senate race and the fade of Tom Barrett in the governor’s race.

First, the Senate race. Russ Feingold led Ron Johnson 45% to 43%, and Dave Westlake 45% to 38%. Both of those are a percentage point higher than Rasmussen’s latest. Even that is not good news for Feingold, because Feingold’s favorables were evenly split 42% favorable/42% unfavorable (worse than Rasmussen’s 52% favorable/45% unfavorable).

Unlike Rasmussen, which puts its crosstabs behind a pay wall, Public Policy includes its crosstabs as part of its release, which reveals a near-even partisan split (34% “independent”, 33% Democrat, 32% Republican, which belies the 41% moderate/40% conservative/19% liberal ideology split). That allows a closer look at the numbers. Among independents, Feingold’s favorability rating is a rather unfavorable 39% favorable/46% unfavorable. Also among independents, Johnson carried them in the Johnson-Feingold matchup 46%-39%, while Feingold held them in the Feingold-Westlake matchup 39%-36%.

On the governor’s side, Scott Walker is up on Tom Barrett 45%-38%, while Mark Neumann is up 41%-36%. The latter represents a significant drop from the Rasmussen lead of 8 for Neumann.

The crosstabs reveal that, while a significant portion of the state still doesn’t have an opinion of the three candidates, only Walker has a positive overall favorability factor (36% favorable/28% unfavorable, and 32% favorable/28% favorable among independents). While Barrett has a negative overall favorability factor (28% favorable/30% unfavorable), he does have a positive favorability factor among independents (28% favorable/26% unfavorable). Neumann lags badly in that category, with negative overall favorability (18% favorable/35% unfavorable) and negative indepenent favorability (18% favorable/33% unfavorable) factors.

Both Walker and Neumann carry independents rather handily against Barrett. Walker carried them 43%-30%, while Neumann carried them 41%-29%.

We’re number 5 – tax-raising edition

by @ 14:55. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Rick Newman at US News and World Report went through the ten states that have raised taxes the most per-capita since 2009. With $900,000,000 in new taxes since then, or $159 per person, Wisconsin ranks 5th.

It gets worse when one looks at the gross amount, because Delaware and Connecticut have a lower population than Wisconsin. On the other hand, Arizona, which ranked just behind Wisconsin on a per-capita basis, went in for an even $1,014,000,000 in new taxes.

Meanwhile, to within the nearest $1,000,000, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wyoming held the line. Nebraska, Missouri, Alaska, Alabama, Louisiana, West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and North Dakota actually found a way to cut taxes.

June 27, 2010

All you need to know about Terrence Wall’s sour grapes

Jim Klauser, who was Terrence Wall’s campaign co-chair, was quoted by the Wisconsin State Journal responding to allegations from the former Senate candidate that Ron Johnson bought his endorsement at last month’s Republican Party of Wisconsin convention:

“I looked into it and I found nothing to support it. Sadly, I think this is all a part of his imagination. I think he is conjuring it up and demeaning a reputable individual in the process.

The Johnson campaign produced documents showing a total of 6 rooms paid for by the campaign, which the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports was for Johnson, his wife, and 6 campaign staffers.

Specifically on the delay of the endorsement vote, one can blame the deadlock on the lieutenant governor’s 3-ballot ultimate non-endorsement. I was there Saturday, and the endorsement process for governor and lieutenant governor took 6 hours.

Just as a reminder, the votes weren’t even counted after Dick Leinenkugel’s surprise drop-out and endorsement of Johnson from the stage before the Wall campaign hit Johnson for taking the endorsement of “Doyle’s favorite Republican”.

One more thing – buying votes at a convention is not illegal. Wall was as busy as anybody else handing out (and selling) trinkets all weekend long. Quoting UW-Milwaukee professor of governmental affairs Mordecai Lee, “not exactly” a conservative, from the WSJ article:

At the end of the day, what he has accused Johnson of is not illegal, so I’m not sure what he hopes to accomplish. But I think he better stick to non-partisan elections, if he ever wants to run for office again.

I guess that, since Wall won’t be replacing Russ Feingold, he would rather keep his tenant in office.

June 24, 2010

Poll-a-copia: End of June edition

by @ 10:45. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Rasmussen Reports released its monthly look-in at the Senate and governor’s races, both taken June 21. The news isn’t good for the Democrats, despite President Obama once again having a significantly higher approval rating in Wisconsin (49% approve/51% disapprove/Approval Index -13) than nationally (45% approve/55% disapprove/Approval Index -15), and the Democrat Party of Wisconsin convention happening between the May and June surveys.

First, Ron Johnson halved Russ Feingold’s insignificant May lead, and now trails 46% to 45%. Feingold’s smears and distortions aren’t exactly working, as Johnson’s favorables are now at 36% approve/30% disapprove/”Passion” Index +8, compared to 32% approve/25% disapprove/”Passion” Index +6, while Feingold’s favorables dipped to 52% favorable (down 1 point from May)/45% unfavorable (up 1 point from May)/”Passion” Index of 0 (down 6 points from May).

Meanwhile, Dave Westlake has made some hay, and is far closer than he’s ever been, trailing 47%-41%. The news isn’t all good for Westlake, because his unfavorables went up dramatically from 26% overall to 32% overall, with the “Passion” Index slipping from -3 to -4.

Over in the governor’s race, somebody had better put a notice on a milk carton for Tom Barrett. He has dropped to an 8-point deficit against both Scott Walker (49%-41%) and Mark Neumann (47%-39%). That 8-point lead by Neumann is his largest, with Walker’s 49% tying his highest percentage total (previously done in February, when he led Barrett 49%-40%) and Neumann’s 47% setting a new high.

One thing I wish Rasmussen did polling for was the primary election. The Walker campaign thoughtfully included some of the internals in a comparison between Walker and Neumann, and it shows a hard road for Neumann. Among the four categories of voters generally considered to be participants in the Republican primary, “Republicans” (note for the out-of-state crowd, there is no party registration, but one cannot vote in more than one party’s primary), independents, conservatives, and Tea Party, Walker is viewed significantly more favorably than Neumann. Among the Tea Party crowd, the Walker split is 86% favorable/8% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 71% favorable/19% unfavorable. Among conservatives, the Walker split is 79% favorable/14% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 64% favorable/22% unfavorable. Among independents, the Walker split is 58% favorable/24% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 51% favorable/30% unfavorable. Among Republicans, the Walker split is 86% favorable/11% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 70% favorable/20% unfavorable.

Unless Neumann is counting on a significant Democrat/liberal cross-over, or a major gaffe by Walker, I don’t see how he gets the nomination.

June 16, 2010

Rural Dane County elites whine for cheap broadband

by @ 12:45. Filed under Business, Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – Dad29)

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel ran a story today about some residents in Town of Berry, roughly 20 miles west of Madison, trying to get the Public Service Commission to force TDS Telecom, the local telephone provider, to provide DSL broadband to the southwest corner of town. TDS, which was turned down for “stimulus” broadband funds by the FCC because Dane County isn’t “rural enough”, says that those residents live in an area too sparsely-populated to make a business case to install the necessary equipment.

For megabit-class speeds, DSL subscribers need to be within roughly 2 miles of the DSLAM (which connects the DSL lines to a backbone line, and is either installed at the local telephone exchange or in the case of AT&T’s Milwaukee-area fiber-to-the-neighborhood, a cabinet in the neighborhood), and for any DSL service, there cannot be a load coil (which extends the effective range of voice communications but blocks DSL signals) on the line. Meanwhile, the population density of Berry as a whole in 2000 was 30.2 people per square mile (that’s as detailed as the Census Bureau gets). The roads, which the utility poles travel along, are “not-exactly” straight because of the geography of the area, requiring longer runs and, in many cases, prohibiting running a DSL line down from Highway 19, which has DSL service.

Said geography also plays havoc with some peoples’ attempts to use wireless broadband connections, and the compaintants whine in the linked complaint about both the reliabiltiy and cost of that. They also don’t want to use satellite internet service because they don’t want to pay the going rate for that less-than-reliable service. They further think that access to cheap land-based broadband is a right guaranteed by state statute.

“Shut up!”, they said – Wisconsin edition

by @ 6:59. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

The Crist-ification of Mark Neumann continues unabated. As part of his pitch to Democrat cross-over vot…er, continuing string of street theater, this time outside the Democratic Party of Wisconsin convention, he told every commenter on the Wisconsin governor’s race to shut up. Christian Schneider grabbed the video for the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute…

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.wpri.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/multimedia/videos/Mark_Neumann_on_Citizens_United.flv[/flv]

In case you couldn’t quite hear that, allow me to transcribe for you:

Unseen questioner – “What do you think about corporate money…the Supreme Court decision that equate (sic) corporate money with free speech and individuals, and unlimited corporation spending on campaigns? What do you think of that?”

Neumann – “I think they should shut down every outside source of information in this campaign except the candidates themselves standing right here in front of people like yourselves debating back-and-forth between them – that’s what I think.

“Now, whether that’s not constitutional so we obviously can’t do that. But if Mark Neumann got to have what he wished, that’s what would happen, sir.”

“Ironic” is probably too weak for this, but I find it hilarious that the person most dependent on the “independent” voters wants nothing but spoon-fed information from the campaigns given to them. Sorry Charl…er, Mark; I might have the blogging blahs, but I will not be silenced by you and your kind.

June 11, 2010

Sticky Fingers Larson to take on Plale

by @ 11:12. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes)

I guess the Democrats don’t want criminal activity to be an August surprise in their now-every-4-year push to Lieberman state Senator Jeff Plale (D-South Milwaukee). The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting they’ve recruited ticketed shoplifter and Milwaukee County Supervisor Chris Larson to take out Plale because he hasn’t quite fully-earned his “East Side” nickname.

I guess the Dems’ desire for somebody crooked might be a function of the unique shape of the 7th Senate District, which links Oak Creek to the UW-Milwaukee campus via MMSD’s Jones Island Water Reclamation Facility.

June 8, 2010

Should the Wisconsin Tea Parties endorse candidates?

The opening item in the Guest-Host with Dean Edition of The Scramble noted the various Wisconsin Tea Party Movement groups are getting together this weekend, and the subject of endorsements is on the agenda. Because there’s so many groups, this really needs to be split into two questions – whether they should endorse if they agree on a single candidate and whether they should endorse if different groups want to endorse different candidates.

As Jay Weber said on this morning’s show, it simply isn’t effective to just carp from the sidelines. While endorsements are not the end-all/be-all, the cold, hard fact is that politicians quickly discount those who are merely gripers who do nothing more substantial in the political process than vent and vote.

An active and united, or even a nearly-united, Tea Party Movements (yes, I am intentionally butchering the grammar and using the plural) front is a rather powerful thing. Just ask Scott Brown, Doug Hoffman, or Rand Paul how much a united front helped them. Of course, the Hoffman experience shows the limits of that.

A badly-fractured set of Tea Party Movements, on the other hand, especially when there is a candidate quite unacceptable to any of the Movements, is extremely counterproductive. I’ll let Warner Todd Huston explain the lessons of Illinois (unlike my contemporaneous excerpt, I’ll take the Illinois governor primary):

There was the same problem with the six candidates that were running for the GOP nomination for Governor. Tea Party groups spilt their votes between Dan Proft and Adam Andrzejewski. Andrzejewski got a last minute surge from Tea Partiers, but it was too late to help. But if you combined the polling numbers that Proft and Andrzejewski were seeing into one that number was a winning number. Unfortunately, the vote was spilt between the two candidates, not settled on just one of them.

I am not saying that the worst-case scenario of the Tea Partiers splitting their votes and allowing a full-blooded RINO slip through is going to happen en masse in Wisconsin, but that is something that the various Tea Party groups have to keep in mind.

The good news is that they are taking the other lesson that Huston drew out to heart – they’re going to at least talk to each other about this. That’s something the Illinios Tea Party Movements singularly didn’t do.

June 7, 2010

Neumann has REALLY lost the Klausers

by @ 9:08. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Charlie Sykes posted an open letter from former Department of Administration Secretary (under Tommy Thompson) James Klauser to gubernatorial candidate Mark Neumann, asking him to leave the field and return his and his wife’s contributions. A bit of background – Klauser endorsed Neumann’s bid before it was officially launched, and his wife served as Neumann’s first campaign treasurer. However, by November, the Klausers pulled their support and backed Scott Walker. Since then, Neumann has started taking talking points from the One Wisconsin Now crowd.

The letter:

Dear Mark:

The last time I wrote you I stated it was time to coalesce around the Republican candidate best able to be elected governor in November 2010. While I appreciate you may have a different view, time has validated my judgment.

Earlier in 2009 when I considered your candidacy you told me that you would conduct a positive campaign with ideas that could address Wisconsin’s problems. You assured me that you would run a positive campaign; that you would adhere to Ronald Reagan’s eleventh commandment not to attack a fellow Republican.

Today I write to you as I am aghast at where your campaign has gone. You are violating the Reagan commandment.

The event you “staged” at the Republican convention was phony and hollow. I watched in amazement your shallowness and contrivance. You well know, since you were the Republican candidate in 5 elections (2 you won, 3 you lost), that guests are allowed “inside” if they register and pay the appropriate fee. At this convention I arranged for several people to so observe. Your claim of outsider, not being allowed in, was staged and phony.

Now I see you are holding press conferences to attack your primary opponent. As a math teacher you know that your criticism is contrived. All this for media attention; to mislead the voters.

My dad always told me to sell myself; not to knock down the other fellow. I expect yours did as well. You’re not following that sage guidance

I hope you stop; you are only helping the democrats. It is time for you to leave the field before your integrity is permanently besmirched.

In any event I must ask you to return the contributions which Shirley and I have made to your campaign. You obtained them under the false pretense that you would run a positive campaign focusing on the liberal democrats. You haven’t done that.

Sincerely,

/s/ James R. Klauser

June 7, 2010

One item I may or may not have mentioned – as the Saturday RPW convention morning session was letting out, and before his street theater, Neumann was standing at one of the two exits of the convention floor pressing the flesh.

Also, Charlie mentioned on his show that the Neumann campaign might ratchet up the mud by taking it onto the TV airwaves. Mark, if you have even a shred of integrity left, don’t do that.

May 27, 2010

Back to the front for Walker

by @ 12:17. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

That didn’t take too long – Rasmussen Reports released a fresh poll on the gubernatorial race, and Republican front-runner and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker is up on Democrat presumptive nominee and City of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett 48%-41%, his largest lead since February. Meanwhile, former Congressman Mark Neumann once again inched ahead of Barrett 44%-42%, after they were tied in April.

While one might say that, and the simultaneous Senate poll, reflects a RPW convention bounce, a couple of other items in that poll suggest otherwise. President Barack Obama’s approval/disapproval split was 49%/50% (Approval Index -9), significantly better than his contemporary overall -8 to -14 national spread (Approval Index between -16 and -22) and a slight improvement of his April 48%/52% (Approval Index -9) numbers.

Meanwhile, Governor Jim Doyle, who is (at least as of this moment) not running for re-election, saw his overall approval/disapproval split improve from 37%/60% (Approval Index -17) in April to 41%/57% (Approval Index -18).

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