No Runny Eggs

The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute and the UW-Madison Political Science Department released a joint poll of 700 Wisconsinites with landline phones polled between September 27 and September 29. A summary of the poll, complete with charts comparing the current poll with previous polls is here, while the full and raw crosstabs are here.

Before I go into the numbers, I did ask WPRI for clarification on whether any pre-determined factors, such as party ID or income, were used to “smooth” the results, and was told that none was used.

• While those who consider themselves Democrats outnumber those who consider themselves Republicans 33.3% to 25.6% (which moves to a 47.0% D-42.3% R advantage once leaners are included), former Republican governor Tommy Thompson would win a hypothetical matchup against Democratic Senator Russ Feingold 43.1%-39.1%. The summary also notes that the number of self-described Democrats have been declining since last year.
• While President Barack Obama remains popular in Wisconsin (57.4% at least somewhat approve of his job performance, 40.5% at least somewhat disapprove), the Rasmussen-style Presidential Approval Index (those who strongly approve less those who strongly disapprove) is -0.2. That compares very favorably to Rasmussen’s national daily tracking poll over that same period of 49% approve, 50% disapprove and a Presidential Approval Index of -6.
• That approval flies in the face of the national “right/wrong track” question. Not only does “wrong track” beat “right direction” 53.7%-36.6%, the summary notes that that Wisconsin is more pessimistic than the nation as a whole.
• Another contra-indicator of Obama’s “popularity” is the failure of health care “reform” – 34.9% oppose the Democratic plans of Placebocare, while only 28.3% support it.
• Meanwhile, Governor Jim Doyle is rather unpopular, with 43.2% at least somewhat approving of his his job performance, 52.3% at least somewhat disapproving, and a Rasmussen-style Gubernatorial Approval Index of -23.7.
• None of the presumptive candidates for governor (Mark Neumann and Scott Walker on the Republican side, Barbara Lawton and the unannounced Tom Barrett on the Democratic side) achieved 51% recognition even among those who say they are ideologically part of that party. Therefore, I won’t comment further on the poll questions relating to the race (general favorability ratings and the primary matchups).
• The generic Assembly ballot shows a 40.0% Democrat to 35.0% Republican split. However, again there are contra-indicators galore:
  • Contra-indicator #1 – 57.6% say that Wisconsin is on the wrong track, while 32.4% say that things are going in the right direction. Of note, the “wrong track” crowd has increased since last year.
  • Contra-indicator #2 – A plurality of 32.7% of those surveyed say that “improving the state’s economy and protecting jobs” should be the top priority of the Legislature and the governor (I’ll come back to this in a bit), and the 17.9% say that “holding the line on taxes and government spending” is the most important issue represents the second-largest group, ahead of, in order, “more-affordable” health care, other unnamed issues, improving education, fighting crime, protecting the environment, campaign finance reform, affordable electricity and gas prices.
  • Contra-indicator #3 – 57.4% say that they can trust the state government to do the right thing only some of the time, and another 10.7% say that they can never trust the state government to do the right thing.
  • Contra-indicator #4 – 45.6% say that the policies of the state government over the last year have made the economy worse, 34.1% say that they have had no effect, and only 13.4% say that they have made it better.
• Back to the economy; there is a significant contra-indicator there. 47.6% would rather protect the environment than protect jobs, 38.7% would rather protect jobs than protect the environment, and 9.0% consider both equally-important. However, going back to the most-important issue for the Legislature and governor, while the economy garnered a 32.7% plurality, protecting the environment ranked 6th of 9 issues listed at 1.0%.

As I said, there’s something for everybody.

Revisions/extensions (4:28 pm 10/6/2009) – How could I forget the “Where do you get most of your news” question? There are several interesting items in that:

– Television dominates across most of the categories (49.3% overall, 52.8% of Democrats, 49.2% of Republicans, 46.2% of independents, over 50% of those over 35 years old).
– The Internet (which covers both blogs and online versions of the traditional media) is a distant second overall at 19.6%. However, it has made strong inroads among those under 36 years old (40.0%, which is a plurality in that group), independents (24.0%) and males (23.0%).
– At 15.0%, newspapers barely beat radio (14.7%). Its adherents are mostly old (25.9% of those over 64 years old) and Democrat (18.5%). The bad news for publishers is only 7.5% of those under 36 years old see them as their primary news source.

I really need to make a longer statement on the state of the media, but I will note a couple of things:

– Television is extremely weak in pursuing local and state issues.
– Newspapers, which traditionally have taken the lead in local/state issues, have not only become rather cozy with certain local/state politicians, but have cut their ability to cover local/state politics beyond the bone because of their aging and shrinking readership.
– Nobody has figured out how to consistently make money with a ‘net-based operation.

All WisPolitics has at this point is that their sources say that Congressman Ron Kind (D-La Crosse), who previously scheduled satellite TV time for today, will be using said time to announce that he will not be seeking the Democratic nomination for governor.

If true, that would be a serious bullet dodged for Scott Walker and Mark Neumann, the two major official candidates for the Republican nomination. While Kind would not have been able to bring over most of his federal campaign funds (at least if the Government “Accountability” Board is consistent), he would have brought a proven ability to raise funds, a telegenic face, and a lack of ties to the continuing mess the Wisconsin Democrats are making in Madison.

The following came in from my friends at Americans for Prosperity – Wisconsin:

Be Part of History!
Americans For Prosperity – Wisconsin Chapter
& The Wisconsin GrandSons of Liberty
Present:
A Taxpayer Tea Party/Milwaukee Constitution Day Celebration

WHAT: Wisconsin’s Largest Tea Party
WHEN: Saturday, September 19, 2009, 3:00 – 5:00 PM
WHERE: Veterans Park, 1010 N. Lincoln Memorial Drive
Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Confirmed Speakers
Rachel Campos-Duffy
Blogger at AOL Parent Dish & Author:Stay Home, Stay Happy
Willie Soon, Ph.D
Astrophysicist Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Marc Marano
Former Spokesman for Senator James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma
Web site: ClimateDepot.com.
David Clarke
Milwaukee County Sheriff
Mark Block
Wisconsin State Director, Americans for Prosperity
Pastor David King
Founder, Milwaukee God Squad
Rebecca Kleefisch
Conservative Correspondent at Midday With Charlie Sykes
Linda Hansen
Wisconsin Prosperity Network

Major speakers will be announced on this web site as soon as they are confirmed. This will be the largest Taxpayer Tea Party in Wisconsin history. Be part of it. Watch for details.

Two words – BE THERE!

How much do you want to bet that Gov. Jim Doyle doesn’t take RPW chair Reince Priebus up on his challenge issued in the following press release?

MADISON – Following Governor Doyle’s official announcement that he will not seek reelection in 2010, Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Reince Priebus issued the following statement:

“Governor Doyle’s decision not to seek a third term can be attributed to many factors, but self-imposed term limits isn’t one of them.

Low approval ratings and a budget mess to clean up, on top of embarrassing stories such as an illegal legal counsel and a no-bid train contract likely helped convince Governor Doyle that Wisconsin voters have had enough of his failed policies.

If Governor Doyle really believed that all governors should be limited to two terms in office, then why was he raising campaign cash during the past two years? In his press conference this morning, he mentioned he and Jessica believed he would be a two-term governor. In that case, Governor Doyle should donate all of the campaign money he’s raised during his second term to charity, and I am calling on him to do just that.”

That was fast – the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton will throw her hat into the Democratic gubernatorial primary, while Rep. Paul Ryan will not throw his hat into the Republican gubernatorial primary.

I don’t buy this statement from Lawton’s camp for a second considering the news came out less than 1 1/2 hours after Gov. Jim Doyle announced he would not seek a third term – “Today is Gov. Doyle’s day and the lieutenant governor wishes him well.” I would think that one would at least let the fireball start contracting before announcing, “The lieutenant governor intends to run for governor and she will have more to say about that in the near future.” Then again, there is no love lost between Doyle and Lawton.

Meanwhile, Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) was more succinct in his statement – “Since Governor Doyle’s decision has become public, people from around the state have contacted me and urged me to run for Governor. I thank them for their support and I am considering it. In the weeks to come I will make my decision.”

As expected (and frankly, predicted by me this morning), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) issued a statement saying that he had no interest in running for governor in 2010. That tracks with the last question I asked him at the state GOP convention regarding a possible Senate run; he’s just too happy in the House right now.

File this dispatch from the MacIver Institute under T for “Told you so!” The takeaway:

Polling done by others showed Governor Doyle’s approval and re-elect numbers plummeted lower and lower each month after his Budget address in February. Our poll showed him with a lead over both of his prospective GOP challengers this spring, but foretold what would would happen if the Governor chose spending and taxing over belt tightening.

With the predicted Wisconsin voter reaction now a reality, Governor Doyle is poised to bow out, rather than face their wrath at the polls.

As our polling showed, it didn’t have to come to this.

The question now is: Will other elected officials in Madison learn from his mistakes?

They also throw in a flashback to the final state budget that ought to scare the bejeebers out of the rest of the field as well – $12.1 billion of bad ($3.63 billion of new spending, $2.05 billion in new taxes, $3.58 billion of borrowing, $1.50 billion in allowable local property tax hikes, and $2.05 billion in structural deficit). While it most-affects Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton and the Legislative prospective candidates, it also doesn’t bode well for noted fee-hiker Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett or noted federal tax-hiker Ron Kind.

While I don’t keep up with much from the Washington Post, I do follow Chris Cillizza’s The Fix. He picked up on the news from the Politico over the weekend, and I do have to give a couple of commenters a inside-the-cheese perspective. Since I’m not about to register to comment over there, I have to do it here.

For mark_in_austin, who wonders how Kathleen Falk could be considered a serious contender, I first recommend this morning’s hot read from Christian Schneider. I further point out that she has failed in two of three statewide elections – the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary and the 2006 AG general election (she did, however, knock off a scandal-ridden incumbent who dared to push just a little bit into the shady dealings of Doyle). The second loss is the only statewide/Congressional office that flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans in the 2006 election cycle.

For JayPen, who wonders what will happen to Doyle’s $2 million war chest, it will most-likely be wound down slowly. If I’m reading the appropriate statutes right (Chapter 11), a bit over $40,000 per cycle can go to an individual gubernatorial campaign, with lesser amounts going to lower statewide and local campaigns. The moneys could also be returned to the donors, or donated to a charitable organization or the common school fund.

(H/T – The blatantly-ripped-off Charlie Sykes)

Christian Schneider, one of the true professional political handicappers, handicaps the race to replace Gov. Jim Doyle on the Democratic side of the ticket. He introduces a new name to the mix; Senate Democratic Leader Russ Decker:

Through the miracle of modern technology, I was able to actually record Russ Decker’s brain waves regarding his decision on whether to run for Governor:

“So I’ve been busting my tail for the people in the state senate for 20 years, and some kook like Barb Lawton is actually mentioned as a more viable candidate for governor than I am? I’m the freaking Senate Majority Leader for Christ’s sake! I’m the second most important Democrat in state government – and as much as I’d love to run for Dave Obey’s congressional seat when he retires, everyone knows that bearded skeleton is only leaving Congress feet first. He’ll probably serve until he’s 132.

But what if people start figuring out that my fingerprints are all over this most recent disastrous budget? Aren’t I culpable for the huge tax increases and future deficits this budget creates? Are voters really going to elect someone that’s saddled with all the same baggage that Jim Doyle carries around?

And how is it that Pizza Hut keeps coming up with new pizzas to sell us as ‘specials,’ when they’re all essentially the same ingredients?”

(Sorry, I didn’t turn off the thought transcriber machine in time.)

Verdict:

RUSS DECKER GOT MORE GRAVY THAN PEOPLE THINK

Bonus coverage from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel includes news that I’ve been fearing; the Thompson gang,
including Tommy himself and former aide Bill McCoshen, are taking a second look at running for governor. Further, they speculate with no comment from the respective campaigns that Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) would jump in. While Van Hollen might try to prove that A.G. stands for “Aspiring to be Governor”, I strongly doubt that Ryan would bolt from the House.

They also have a run-down on available money for the various Democratic challengers:

• Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett – $840,257 (the biggest available Democratic warchest)
• Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) – $43,128 of $955,512 legally available
• State Sen. Jon Erpenbach (D-Waunakee) – $21,000
• Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk – $17,000

In case you’ve been in a cave all weekend, Gov. Jim Doyle shocked the part of the world that follows Wisconsin politics by letting slip the news that he would not be running for re-election. After getting scooped, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel popped in with a few more details:

• The official announcement will come on Monday.
• An unnamed senior Democrat legislator said that Doyle came to this decision recently, and also noted the effect the tea parties and townhall meetings have had.

Meanwhile, the right side of Wisconsin politics hasn’t been silent:

• Milwaukee County Executive and candidate for governor Scott Walker said, “It would be the right decision for the governor and in the best interest of Wisconsin taxpayers.”
• Former Congressman and candidate for governor Mark Neumann called it “a game changer”
• The Recall Doyle folks are claiming victory, with their first mission of getting Doyle out now all-but-officially accomplished.
• Former state Senator Cathy Stepp calls it a train derailed. She also speculates that the eventual Democratic nominee will be Rep. Ron Kind (La Crosse).
• James Wigderson interrupted his summer vacation to ask whether DPW chair Mike Tate is the least-qualified state party chair being asked to defend an open gubernatorial seat, and douse some more water on supporters of Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton.
• Mary at Freedom Eden broke out the lame-duck call.
• The Recess Supervisor notes that lame ducks can be the most-dangerous kind, and also notes the day prior how Doyle governed like Governor Doesntgiveashit. In the comments of the first linked item, he handicaps the races.
• Lance Burri calls it a mixed bag.

So, the $16 million question is, “What now?” On the Democratic side, a lot depends on whether Doyle stays in Wisconsin until September 2010. In one of his updates, Kevin Binversie picked up on a WisPolitics item that Doyle does plan on sticking around. That would essentially eliminate any “incumbency” factor for Lawton, who Doyle reportedly doesn’t exactly like. It would also leave the primary wide open, though I note that Democrats aren’t exactly shy about throwing out extraordinarily-weak incumbents in the primary (see Peg Lautenschlager).

Continuing with the Lawton thoughts, whether or not she is governor after an early Doyle departure, she would be tied to a very-unpopular administration. She also is extremely liberal, which explains why she won WisPolitics’ straw poll of who the attendees at the Democratic convention would like to see run if Doyle did not. Further, “acting” governors don’t exactly do well in their “affirmation” elections (ask Scott McCallum).

I honestly don’t know much about Rep. Kind, but he’s been trying to position himself as a “moderate”. If memory serves, a while back Recess Supervisor noted that besides appearing moderate, he is very telegenic and well-spoken. There are a couple of negatives, one paradoxically introduced by Doyle and his hacks on the former State Elections Board. First, he does have a rather extensive federal record. Second, that federal campaign war chest, if the Mark Green example isn’t “conveniently” ignored by the 100% Doyle-handpicked Government Accountability Board, can’t exactly be used.

The third big name is Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. He failed in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in Milwaukee. Beyond that, there’s state Senator Jon Erpenbach, Dane County executive and multiple-time statewide loser Kathleen Falk, and a thin bench.

On the Republican side, that news throws out the emerging plan by both Walker and Neumann to focus almost all their energy on Doyle. It does, however, also eliminate someone who was able to turn a similar situation at this point in 2005 into a successful re-election bid, as well as someone who had $2 million already salted away into the campaign war-chest. Speaking of money, since it is expected that the Democrats would also have a hotly-contested primary, the money race will essentially reset after the primaries.

Unlike Recess Supervisor, I do expect more high-profile names, especially outside the Milwaukee area, to throw their hats in the ring. Neumann has far more in common with Walker than he does with the prototypical outstate moderate Republican.

(H/T – Kevin Binversie – Twitter/blog)

I hate to run away from a good breakout session at RightOnline, but something HUGE popped up back at home. Politico is reporting that Jim Doyle will not be running for re-election in 2010. Jonathan Martin believes that Doyle is still in line for an early exit courtesy an Obama appointment, which would make Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton the de-facto incumbent. Others in the Cheddarsphere, like Josh Schroeder and the Recess Supervisor, think that Congressman Ron Kind would be the front-runner.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled weekend.

Revisions/extensions (4:55 pm 8/15/2009) – I briefly spoke with The Wall Street Journal’s John Fund regarding this, and he had a couple of observations:

– Doyle’s exit would make things a bit harder for the Republicans as they wouldn’t be able to run against him.

– As for the timing, it makes sense to do it now rather than in, say, May 2010 (the filing period is July), because it would give the Dems a bit of time to actually recover.

I also added a link to Kevin’s blog post in addition to his Tweet. It is interesting that he really scooped everybody back in Wisconsin.

I’ll have more thoughts either tomorrow or Monday.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes)

In the current issue of WPRI’s Wisconsin Interest, Ken Lamke makes the case that a primary battle between Scott Walker and Mark Neumann would actually be good for the GOP’s chances of retaking the governor’s office in November 2010.

The prospect of a primary contest between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Congressman Mark Neumann for the Republican nomination for governor in 2010 greatly enhances the GOP’s chances of defeating Gov. Jim Doyle next year.

At least the historical record of the past 45 years of Wisconsin elections leads to that conclusion.

Each of the six times that incumbent governors or U.S. senators were defeated since 1962 occurred when the nominee of the out party emerged from a contested primary rather than having the nomination handed to him by running unopposed in the primary.

Lamke goes on to point out that the major advantages of having a contested primary is that the participants get near-monopoly media coverage, and that they get to hit the incumbent without the incumbent getting to hit back. While the latter isn’t quite true, the return fire is necessarily split between the primary participants.

Of course, winning a contested primary does not always translate to success in the general election.

Sometimes these party leaders are not so much interested in having their party nominee knock off the incumbent as they are in having the specific candidate they support win the nomination.

They really don’t care if their party wins in November—that is, that the primary candidate whom they haven’t backed goes on to beat the incumbent. In fact, they sometimes strongly oppose that outcome, although they won’t say so. Almost by definition, they are not really “party” leaders as much as they are supporters of a particular candidate.

The state GOP leadership, as well as the vast majority of the county party leaderships, changed significantly since 2006, to the point where the 2009 convention was “All Walker All The Time”. However, I’m already starting to see a similar dynamic. The old guard, while officially in the minority among the leadership, is still quite infuencial outstate, while a lot of Walker supporters are already firing “I’ll never support you” broadsides at Neumann.

My friends at the Republican Party of Wisconsin went all Jeff Foxworthy on the DemoBudget:

As Governor Doyle tours the state promoting a job-killing budget he signed into law on Monday, he’s been touting the potential for the budget to create jobs. However, there are a few things he forgot to mention…

Hey, Governor Doyle:

When your budget will kill more jobs than it helps to create…it might be a job-killing budget.

When your budget increases spending by 6.2% during an economic recession…it might be a job-killing budget.

When your budget replaces $2.2 billion in ongoing state funding expenses with federal stimulus money hyped as job-creation spending…it might be a job-killing budget.

When your budget cuts funding for Forward Wisconsin, the state’s business-promotion group, at a time Wisconsin is losing hundreds of jobs to other states…it might be a job-killing budget.

When your budget raises taxes on small businesses and corporations alike…it might be a job-killing budget.

When your budget increases taxes on investments by $243 million…it might be a job-killing budget.

When the cost to do business is going up on everything from the phone bill to the cost of waste disposal but protects an earmark for recycling bins in one town only…it might be a job-killing budget.

When businesses move hundreds of jobs out of Wisconsin citing burdensome taxes you approved to balance the books…it might be a job-killing budget.

If you still think this budget creates jobs…you might be Governor Jim Doyle.

I’ve got one more – when the budget creates a brand-new, higher tax bracket for the more-successful of small business owners…it might be a job-killing budget.