No Runny Eggs

Today, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, my Congresscritter) released a plan to deal with the looming financial crisis that is facing the federal government, “A Roadmap for America’s Future. Yesterday, I highlighted a Congressional Budget Office report on the long-term future of the federal government’s finances. To recap yesterday’s analysis; doing either nothing or attempting to match the required spending increases with tax increases was found by the CBO to be unsustainable.

They also did an analysis of a third scenario; the not-yet-released Roadmap. I chose not to discuss that at that time because the details of the plan weren’t out yesterday, and because the CBO limited its analysis to the overall numbers. The CBO found that the then-not-specific spending targets requested by Ryan and the minority on the House Budget Committee is ultimately sustainable, with debt as a percentage of GDP briefly peaking above 100% around 2040 and falling back to a slightly-more-manageable number as deficit spending is replaced by surpluses, and economic growth continuing at a pace not possible otherwise.

On to some of the specifics:

• “Discretionary” spending as a percentage of GDP is steadily cut from unspecified programs from 9.8% currently to 3.1% by 2082. This one is going to be the hardest to do, but it is absolutely vital to make the numbers work. I’m a bit troubled that there are no specifics mentioned, especially since eliminating pork, which is one of Ryan’s causes, won’t nearly be enough.
• Privatizing Medicare, with the government providing the amount spent per enrollee (with upward adjustments for inflation, health-care inflation and risk factors, and a downward adjustment for income) to purchase private insurance.
• Creating a tax credit for those not in Medicare to purchase health insurance, which would be portable and multi-state.
• Privatizing Social Security.
• Introduce a simplified income tax, with but 2 rates, a large personal deduction, and other than the health insurance deduction noted above, no other deductions.
• Replace the corporate income tax with a “business consumption tax” (i.e. VAT). I’m not exactly sold on this, though Ryan notes that unlike the income tax, it can be removed from exports and added to imports.

There’s a lot more than I’ve included here. It truly is a sweeping proposal.

Barack Obama is complaining that the Republicans are targeting his wife in the general election.

Um, Barack, your wife is campaigning for you:

Michelle Obama campaigned in Durham before heading to Asheville. North Carolina will hold its primary Tuesday.

Not that I agree with Hillary often but, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

If Michelle is campaigning, she’s fair game as she is telling people that they should vote for Barack based on her credibility.

If you want to keep her out of the campaign, keep her off of the campaign trail.   Short of that, welcome to the big leagues.

Just read the article here.

The only thing I would add is, “the castrated White House cat has more balls than you.”

(H/T – Allahpundit/Hot Air Headlines)

At least that’s what the Palestinians think according to WorldNetDaily. Let’s take a quick, way-too-late-at-night (or is it morning already?) look at the tale of the tape:

Positives:

• She covers both ends of a potential diversity pander.
• Does have some Reagan credentials.

Negatives:

• Utterly unimpressive as Secretary of State.
• Very tied to the Bush administration, as she was the National Security Advisor during his first term.
• What little I remember of her non-foreign-policy stands isn’t exactly comforting for conservatives.

I previously noted that in the modern era of Presidential politics, the Republicans have always gone for the person deemed to be “next in line”. One of the criteria used to determine the person who is next in line is the person who finished 2nd in the previous contested primary season.

There is no similar “next in line” in the Democratic Party. Indeed, 5 of the last 6 Democratic candidates, prior to their first nomination, had never sought the office of President, with the sixth (Al Gore) attempting to get a promotion from Vice President. Yes, Walter Mondale also had served as Vice President, but 1984 was his first and last attempt to become President.

The last person who won the nomination after failing to secure it in a previous attempt and without taking up residence at the Naval Observatory was George McGovern. He finished 3rd in 1968, and used the reforms he came up with to take away the nomination process from the party bosses to become the nominee in 1972. Before that, one has to go back to 1924 and John W. Davis and his nomination on the 103rd ballot after failing to get the nod in 1920. Needless to say, neither recycled candidate won the White House.

Revisions/extensions (1:58 pm 5/10/2008) – The news just gets worse for Clinton if she fails this time around. The Democrats have gone for a previous failure (either in the nomination process or in the general election) five times in the previous century (William Jennings Bryan for a third nomination in 1908, Davis in 1924, Adlai Stevenson for a second nomination in 1956, McGovern in 1972 and Gore in 2000), and lost all five times. Past performance is an indicator of future performance.

R&E part 2 (2:10 pm 5/10/2008) – I forgot to mention Lyndon Baines Johnson and his last-second attempt to get the nomination in 1960. In any case, he did serve as VP and President prior to 1964.

This comment from TheBigOldDog on Ed Morrissey’s post asking when Hillary Clinton will drop out has to be the Comment of the Week™…

"We shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in Kentucky and West Virginia, we shall fight on the rally stages and in the dinners, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength on the air. We shall defend our campaign, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the telephones, we shall fight on the Internet, we shall fight in the party backrooms and in the streets, we shall fight in the newspapers and magazines. We shall never surrender!"

As for when I think she’ll drop out, No Sleep Till Denver!

During the last Democratic debate Barack Obama was asked to clarify his position on raising capital gains rates. He’s vacillated between various proposals but during the debate his position was:

Obama has included increasing capital gains rates as part of his populist message of taking from the rich and giving to the poor. Of course the Wall Street Journal quickly dispelled the myth that capital gains came only from the rich with this information:

In 2005, 47% of all tax returns reporting capital gains were from households with incomes below $50,000, and 79% came from households with incomes below $100,000.

Undaunted, Barack Obama continues to talk about increasing capital gains rates and usually wraps some story about evil hedge fund managers in to rally the population into gathering their torches and pitchforks.

Except they’re not.

Rasmussen Reportsasked the masses about increasing capital gains rates and found that 65% opposed an increase in capital gains rates. 85% of Republicans, 62% of unaffiliated and even 50% of Democrats said they did not want the tax increased.

Now Barack may try to enter the general election trying to explain to the masses that the capital gains taxes are just for evil rich people and he won’t raise taxes on the “everyday folks” but it looks like folks already see through that ploy. When asked by Rasmussen, 60% of the respondents said that if a candidate raises capital gains taxes, they would also raise other taxes. 41% of the respondents said their personal taxes would go up if the capital gains rates increased.

As it relates to his tax plans it looks like not only can’t Barack fool all of the people all of the time, he’s having a tough time fooling even some of the Democrats some of the time.  

Since I’m not running CoverItLive (it was too late to get it started), do scroll down and hit refresh for updates. The last one went up at 12:12 12:23 am 5/7/2008.

Guess I’m taking over for ST and Ed/Allahpundit. I don’t feel like firing up CoverItLive, but I’ve got my Mountain Dew, and a quick recap:

– With 86% in, Clinton’s up 560,720 to 521,415.
– They’re hand-counting about 11,000 ballots in Lake County (the county closest to Chicago), so no results from them yet.
– There’s also no results from Union County in east-central Indiana, which is Clinton country.
– Obama and CBS have conceded Indiana to Clinton, but nobody else is calling it.

10:09 pm – For those thinking that Lake could deliver the state for Obama, I’m estimating he’ll need about 38,000 votes. Ed noted in the Hot Air live thread that there were about 110,000 votes for Kerry in 2004, so if that’s the base, Obama would need about a 35-point win. The primary numbers are actually running about 30% higher than that statewide, so there’s likely about 143,000 votes out there. That would suggest he would need a 27-point win.

10:21 pm – Karl Rove just ripped Hillary for having a red-faced Bill out there. I guess it has to be said…”Rove you magnificent bastard! Hill should’ve read your book!”

Lead’s now 568,039-528,432, 87% in. Projected pre-Lake (and pre-Union County) lead still holding within a couple hundred.

10:39 pm – Lead’s down to 574,643-536,332, 88% reporting. The memes are already starting for Clinton to drop. I say, “No sleep ’till Denver!”

We’re down to 8 counties with partial or no results:
Lake – no results
Union – no results
Porter (81% in) – Clinton up approximately 16,900-12,300
Laporte (88% in) – Clinton up approximately 13,100-12,100
Hamilton (99% in) – Obama up approximately 25,300-16,500
Hancock (98% in) – Clinton up approximately 6,100-4,100
Marion (98% in) – Obama up approximately 121,900-60,200
Monroe (67% in) – Obama up approximately 8,900-4,600

10:50 pm – Statewide, with 91% in, it’s 587,973-566,988 Clinton. That’s Lake County’s Gary’s effect (that’s from CNN); with 28% in Lake County, it’s 27,991-9,470 in Obama’s favor. Porter’s also all in.

11:01 pm – It’s 588,106-567,104 Clinton. American Pundit is also burning the midnight oil (literally).

11:09 pm – Wolf Blitzer really laid into the Hammond mayor (Clinton supporter) for Lake County’s refusal to release partial results. Somehow I doubt CNN will be joining the Drop Hill meme.

Meanwhile, Laporte finished reporting, Clinton up statewide 588,823-568,156 (92% reporting). Still no results from Union County.

11:18 pm – No new numbers, but some back-of-the-envelope math of what’s still left to be picked up in the other counties reporting partial results:
– Hamilton (99% in) – Obama should pick up about 100 votes
– Hancock (97% in) – Clinton should pick up about 100 votes
– Marion (98% in) – Obama should pick up about 1,300 votes
– Monroe (67% in) – Obama should pick up about 2,100 votes

Union County, which still isn’t reporting, should get Clinton about 2,000 net. That would cut Clinton’s statewide lead to under 20,000, which would give the state to Obama if Lake matches Marion (Indianapolis). Lake is the second-most-populous county behind Marion, and is essentially a suburb of Chicago.

11:22 pm – Er, make that even approaches Marion. The rest of the county would need to go 60-40 Obama to put it in the margin of error.

American Pundit, who’s kept an eye on Fox, notes that 6,000 absentee ballots may not be counted tonight. Oh brother.

11:27 pm – Guess I better listen to Fox rather than the Clinton News Network (where a flack is trying to spin) – they’re reporting that Clinton has canceled her morning appearances (thanks again, AmerPundit).

11:37 pm – More numbers from both Lake and Monroe Counties. Clinton’s lead is now 606,497-589,888 with 95% reporting. Will be back with analysis shortly.

11:53 pm – Bear in mind that there are potentially 6,000 absentee ballots that won’t be counted tonight. The freshly-reporting portion of Lake County went 55-45 Obama, putting the county thus far at 65-35 Obama. If the rest of the county reports the way the fresh numbers came in, Clinton should have about a 10,000-vote win. If they report the way the county overall reports, it should be about a 2,000-vote win for Obama.

AmerPundit notes that it came from Merrilville and part of Munster along with the rest of Gary, so those more-familiar with the lay of the land can tell me which way the wind’s blowing.

11:54 pm – Make that 7,000 absentee ballots in Lake County (thanks again, AmerPundit). Also, Monroe County is 98% in.

12:02 am 5/7/2007 (assume the new date) – The Clinton News Network just got done grilling the mayor of Gary (an Obama superdelegate). Also, it’s all-but-official in North Carolina – Obama took it 56.7%-41.9% with 99% reporting.

12:06 am – This is just too rich; the Hammond mayor (Clinton supporter) accusing Lake County election officials of hanky-panky on CNN. Reap what you sow…. AP, you getting this?

12:12 am – Time’s almost out for Obama to declare a sweep. Almost all of Lake is in, and the statewide Clinton lead is now 637,389-615,370. Lake’s at 98% and Obama’s lead is 66,265-53,310.

CNN calling it for Clinton. So is Fox, ABC and NBC. Union County, which won’t report until 2 am, won’t matter.

Good night, good fight.

12:23 am – Meh; call me a pol. CNN got the numbers out of Union, which Clinton won 803-383 (everybody reporting). Statewide, it’s Clinton up 638,192-615,753.

NOW I’m history.

That’s right, doses. Guess almost everybody that voted so far in the latest NRE poll is going to be disappointed if the GOP finds this post, but I can’t NOT comment on this trifecta.

– Item #1 (H/T – Brad V of Try 2 Focus, not to be confused with the Brad V at Letters in Bottles) – John McCain is already tacking heavily to the left to the mutual exclusion of healing the rifts with conservatives. Now, which exhibit is this in the assumption that conservatives won’t bolt (or is this exhibit D in the final betrayal of conservatives by the GOP)?

– Item #2 – Michelle Malkin notes McCain will be going to the convention of a group whose ultimate goal is to separate the Soutwest from the United States. Guess the majority that successfully blocked Shamnesty last year despite the support of McCain and the rest of the bipartisan Party-In-Government doesn’t matter. Bonus mandatory reading – doubleplusundead’s take.

– Item #3 (H/T – Slublog) – House Pubbies are rolling again and again and again on Nancy Pelosi’s attempts to lard up the pork barrel. Scratch one of the two differences between McCain and the ‘Rats. Guess being the permanent-minority half of the ever-bloating bipartisan Party-In-Government is more important.

In case you missed Shoebox’s discussion of a piece that identifies Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as essentially left-of-the-Democratic-center (which is well left of the actual center) clones, do read it. It does illustrate the divide that has happened in the last 20 years, and also identifies McCain as left-of-the-Republican-center.

There is an assumption made by Kevin Poole and company that I do take exception to, however. Take another look at one of the graphics Shoebox borrowed from them, specifically the one comparing the 90th, 100th and 110th Congresses.

It would appear at first glance that the Left hardly moved further left over the last 40 years, while the Right moved quite a bit further right over the same time. However, that assumes that the middle didn’t move either direction. I beg to differ.

Just as a singular example, let’s take a look at Medicare. Back in 1965, roughly half of the Republicans were opposed to its creation (do ignore the error in the House Dems’ “no” vote total; it is a government operation I’m linking to). Of course, since they were in an extreme minority, it passed rather handily.

Fast forward to 2003. In the face of a decade of projections declaring that Medicare was facing a financial time bomb, President Bush (R) proposed a massive expansion of Medicare in the form of prescription drug benefits. Nearly all of the House Republicans and Senate Republicans agreed.

I know, it’s not perfect (neither Congress in the chart was the one that voted on Medicare), and McCain did vote against the drug bill, but it is rather illustrative of the leftward tilt of the Republican Party. I could also mention pork, the shift of the rhetoric of tax-rate cuts from actually reducing the amount of taxes taken in by government to raising the amount of taxes taken in by government, and the utter abandomnent of the idea of getting rid of government agencies.

Before the Lefties start streaming in to say that proves they’ve moved to the right, I’ll briefly touch on why so few Democrats agreed to that expansion of government-run health care. It was not because they didn’t want to also expand Medicare; it was because they wanted to go even farther. Indeed, their Presidential candidates and the last Democratic President wanted to create a “full-coverage” government-run health care system, and saw this as too small a step.

(H/T – Mary Katharine Ham)

I’m as jaded as the next guy, but Slate has a killer video distilling the ‘Rat campaign to 7 wicked minutes…

Just in case you missed the announcement in today’s Scramble, Operation Chaos has now resumed, and the NRE Spring Hill order is to make sure the flat-spinning Obama campaign augers into the ground. A word of caution; since we are in a 2-v-1 the hard way, do not lose track of the other target.

I knew Al Franken was an alleged comedian but I thought he was serious about running for a Minnesota Senate seat.   Turns out Franken was just telling a long, expensive joke.

I wrote hereabout Franken’s tax troubles.  

Yesterday, the latest shoe dropped as Franken admitted that he had unreported income in 17 states. He remained quick to point out that it was his accountant that made the mistake not Al himself.

Like most liberals, Franken has been running on a platform of corporation and CEO bashing. He continues to wail about unaccountability and how corporations take advantage of the common folk. It now appears that Franken has been speaking from experience. Not paying workers comp insurance for his common folks and signing off on false returns seems to be just the kind of thing that Franken has been decrying.

I had never found Franken particularly funny. His material struck me as more mean spirited than witty. It now appears that I had been looking for humor in the wrong place. It turns out that the joke is actually Al Franken.

In case you missed the update from the Southern Command relayed through the 10,000 Lakes Observation Post, Rush Limbaugh (CinC-EIB) has called for an operational pause on Operation Chaos. In accordance with that, and at the suggestion of Shoebox (see that link), the NRE Spring Hill campaign is now in a holding pattern awaiting the next target. Instant review of the mission objectives:

– Obama not the inevitable nominee – CHECK
– ‘Rats at each others’ throats like it is 1860 – CHECK
– No sleep ’till Denver – TO THE BEST OF MY ABILITY

I still have ammo, avgas, and an itchy trigger finger. It’s now a balancing act to keep this pot boiling and not exploding until August.

(H/T – Asian Badger)

Yes, it has come to a cheesy Flash game from the New York Post. It’s just like real life; s/he who hits the hardest with the mostest wins.

Democrats were hopeful that the Senate seat of Norm Coleman from Minnesota, would be one that they could get in their attempt to get a 60 vote,  filibuster proof majority.   The Dems felt that by running Al Franken, a candidate with high name recognition and strong liberal politics they could turn the seat in a state that recently elected one of the most liberal members of the Senate Amy Klobuchar.   It’s not going to happen.

Last month SurveyUSA released this survey  showing that Coleman was up by 10% with momentum in his direction.   This poll was taken around the time that it was revealed that Al Franken hadn’t paid workers compensation insurance for his employees in New York.   At the time Franken’s team had numerous and changing reasons for why the payment of the insurance, was an “oversight” (including “he wasn’t home”) but in the end agreed to paying a fine.

Team Franken thought that paying the fine would let them get back to running for Senate but they were wrong.   A new issue was raised alleging that Franken hadn’t filed California state income taxes for a period of years.   Again Team Franken moved into spin mode  alleging that it was another “oversight” and that Franken’s California corporation was to have been terminated as he hadn’t done business in California during that time. Once again Team Franken thought they could get pass the issue by paying the back tax and penalty.

Case closed.

Um…..not quite.
(more…)

After my rant yesterday telling McCain to “shut up” about the North Carolina ad, I now feel compelled to atone and offer to you this suggestion for showing your support for John  McCain.   From David Hinz over at RedState:

I propose that each and every Conservative demonstrate his or her support for Senator McCain for President by purchasing a “McCain for President,” bumper sticker, or better still, two. Then we should all affix those bumper stickers upside down — as a clear message to the senator. As a former Navy flier, Sen McCain will understand that message only too well. As explained below, displaying an ensign or the American flag upside down is a message of danger. It means, “…a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property.”

As one of the posters at RedState mentioned, you’ll probably want to use two stickers because if you have just one upside down, people will just think you’re an idiot!

Update:   I forgot to mention that you can buy your stickers at www.JohnMcCain.com.   I bought 4 window variety this morning for $5 each.

Jim Geraghty figured out why John McCain is trying to silence anybody and everybody that hits the Democrats hard; he’s running very hard to the mushy middle as Mr. Clean. 16 years ago, that might have worked, because that is precisely how his BFF Russ Feingold overcame a massive money and name recognition disadvantage to first win a 3-way primary battle and then win his Senate seat. However, this isn’t 1992, and frankly, most of the country isn’t Wisconsin. That mushy middle doesn’t really exist; at best it represents 10% of the electorate, and it’s been shrinking every election.

Sean Hackbarth pointed out a potentially-significant flaw in McCain’s plan; he’s not been consistent on the lack of use of the Wright-Obama connection. Actually, let’s drop the “potentially”; it’s certain tha McCain’s former friends in the LeftStreamMedia will use that inconsistency against him to further shrink the mushy middle.

Moreover, every open step toward the mushy middle, especially in the form of a repudiation of the GOP base (or at least what, up until recently, was the base), further weakens him in the eyes of said base. This specific case reinforced my opinion that the current “leadership” of the GOP really wants to be a permanent minority center-left party. I’m all-but-ready to abandon the See-Dub plan and follow doubleplusundead in saying, “Screw McCain.”