No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics – National' Category

November 5, 2008

Very painful night

Welcome to the Wisconsin Socialist Collective of the United Socialist States of America. Yes, the people have spoken, and by a margin that, at least in Wisconsin, is beyond the margin of fraud, we’re about to head down the path of Eastern Europe circa 1985.

The Democrats have handily taken over the Assembly. Even without the still-close races in the 43rd (the Dem is leading by 304 votes with a precinct still to report), 47th (the 28-vote margin the Republican has will in all likelyhood be challenged), and the 67th (where ex-“Republican” Jeff Wood, whose future caucusing preferences are unknown, won by 175 votes), they have a 6-seat margin. Here comes the tripling of the sales tax the voters of Milwaukee County demanded. Here comes the socialization of health care the voters of Oak Creek and South Milwaukee demanded. The school referenda that are a mixed bag will be no more; those spending and tax increases, forced in large part to the suddenly-disappearing QEO, will simply fly through without the voters’ say.

The voters have also proven that Wisconsin is as reliably ‘Rat Red (I refuse to call the Dems’ color “blue”; just be thankful I don’t call it the Communist Red that it should be) as Illinois in a statewide election. I can’t argue with the numbers and history. Outside of Tommy Thompson, who had the incumbent factor working for him since 1990, and the fluke of J.B. Van Hollen in 2006, the Republicans have not won a meaningful statewide election since 1986 (no, state treasurer is not meaningful and besides, we now have a part-time Boston Store clerk Dem as state treasurer). Moreover, Barack Obama’s 376,000-vote margin was well beyond the 55,000 fraudulent vote estimate from John Fund.

On to the national scene – the Dems proved that popularity is extremely overrated. They were rewarded for being at the helm of the “least-popular” Congress ever with an absolute, no-Joe-Lieberman-needed majority in the Senate, and an increased majority in the House. When combined with two of the most-liberal of their number in the executive branch, that means every liberal pipe dream will be enacted, from the overturning of every previously-allowed limitation on abortion (which Obama promised will be the first thing he signs), to a forced increase in union rolls, to the elimination of the private retirement system. While the damage to the Supreme Court, at least in Obama’s first term, will likely be limited to granting the liberal seats a 30-year extension (barring something happening to either Justice Kennedy or the 4 conservatives), the lower courts will become far more liberal as the Dem-caused vacancy crisis is suddenly filled with Lawgivers-In-Black.

Still, the night’s biggest losers weren’t conservatives, Republicans, or even the people of this country. They were Jeff Wood and Joe Lieberman. First, I’ll take the case of Wood. He burned his bridges with the Republican Assembly caucus when he decided to bolt. Because the Democrats won’t need his vote to get anything they want done in the Assembly done, he’s a man without a caucus.

Similarily, Joe Lieberman is no longer necessary to keep the Dems in power in the US Senate. While, at the moment, the filibuster survives because the Dems didn’t get to 60 in their caucus, and won’t regardless of where Lieberman caucuses, I don’t expect the filibuster to survive the next Congress. The Democrats will be under enormous pressure to get their one-party socialism agenda done before 2011, partly because that is what the nutroots demand, and partly because without a quick-cementing of power, the pendulum will swing back and smack them upside the head.

I can’t be all negative, however. Paul Ryan handily won re-election, Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota hung on, Mark Honadel made a miraculous comeback to hang onto his seat (I thought it lost when he was down 10 points with 16 of 24 precincts reporting), Bill Kramer and Leah Vukmir will be back in the Assembly, and there is one last day of sunny Indian summer left in the land of cheese and beer. If we are going to truly repeat American history, which has twice rejected permanent one-Democratic Party rule, we have to build on those few successes.

November 4, 2008

Election Night Drunkblog

I’ll be starting at the Sam Adams forward observation post, and moving to Papa’s for Drinking Right somewhere around 7. Since the first polls close at 6, that’s when the fun starts.

I’ll be taking requests for races to follow (or at least try to follow between drinks).

McCain Wins!

by @ 17:09. Filed under Politics - National.

Well, at least at Thing 1 and Thing 2’s elementary.   I’m told he won 396 to 157!   I suspect the spread in the adult vote of this area won’t be too far off of that.   Maybe we should have started a drive to get “Power of attorney” for the rest of the state!

Election Day plans

I will be working with the Sam Adams Alliance and several other bloggers to report on voter/election fraud in and around Milwaukee until about 7 pm. Please stay tuned to this place, Vote Fraud Squad, and the #voterfraud hashtag on Twitter.

If you have any tips, please e-mail me at votefraud@norunnyeggs.com.

November 3, 2008

Sarah Palin exonerated by the Alaskan State Personnel Board

by @ 23:41. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – Hot Air)

Fox News (among others) report that the non-partisan Alaskan State Personnel Board has found no violation of Alaskan ethics law by anybody in the Troopergate episode. Quoting from the report – “There is no probable cause to believe that the governor, or any other state official, violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act in connection with these matters.”

I’m surprised that this news didn’t keep until Wednesday.

Follow-up; expiration dates for Obama statements

by @ 18:03. Filed under Politics - National.

Jim Geraghty has kept track of most of the expired statements from Barack Obama. From Iraq to Iran, from debates to public financing, from Jerusalem to NAFTA, from Jeremiah Wright to Jim Johnson, it is a great primer to the fickle winds of most of Obama’s positions, and a fine companion piece to MKH’s video What has not changed is Obama’s calls for socialism.

The not-so-awaited Egg endorsements

I’ll start down the ticket because I can with a quick revision/extension at 9:55 pm 11/3/2008 to add most no-challenger races

Various advisory referenda in Wisconsin asking for government-provided health care, including Oak CreekNo. This is a back-door attempt to try to bully the Legislature into adopting universal health care in Wisconsin. The one plan that meets the suggestion of the standard referendum, Healthy (and Depopulated) Wisconsin, comes with a price tag that would double the tax burden in Wisconsin.

The Milwaukee County sales tax advisory referendum asking for a tripling of the county sales tax to 1.5%No. Even the supporters admit that this is a $65 million-$80 million tax increase. That is assuming that, if that tripling is authorized by the state, half of the receipts would go to property tax “relief”. If not, and all indications including historical are that it won’t, it’s a $130 million-$160 million tax increase in a county where a $200 item would become cheaper to purchase outside the county.

The city of Milwaukee direct legislation asking for paid sick leave to be imposed on all businesses in the cityNo. Another 9 days of vacation will drive what’s left of business out of Milwaukee. How bad is it? Even the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out against it.

Various school building and tax-increase referendaNo. At the risk of being called Dr. No, a time when the economy is at best tightening is not the time to be building new Taj Mahals for the teachers and administrators. Kids won’t know the difference between a 40-year-old building and a shiny new one, at least if the school districts wanted to do maintenance instead of create a “crisis”.

21st Assembly DistrictMark Honadel The math is simple; Honadel wants a stable-to-lower tax burden. Brower wants an ever-higher tax and regulatory burden.

14th Assembly DistrictLeah Vukmir

57th Assembly DistrictJo Egelhoff

97th Assembly DistrictBill Kramer

Any other Assembly or state Senate race I missedThe Republican Folks, I’ll put this in simple terms. The Democrats, should they gain complete control of state government, will make this a regulatory and tax hell. From Healthy (and Depopulated) Wisconsin to Gorebal “Warming” to a complete lifting of whatever property tax limits are in place, they promise more-expensive government.

Any other race where only one party or the other is represented except the 5th Congressional (specifically the Waukesha County District Attorney race)Dave Casper (write-in) Asian Badger pointed out in the comments I missed the idiot DA in Waukesha County. That’s probably because I don’t live there, but I’ll correct that oversight and give Dave a second chance for a victory party.

1st Congressional DistrictPaul Ryan Yes, Ryan is my Congressman. He is also a visionary who isn’t afraid to touch the third rail of entitlements.

8th Congressional DistrictJohn Gard Gard frankly got screwed two years ago. Those of you in northeast Wisconsin have seen subpar representation out of Kagen, and this is your best and probably last chance to oust him.

Any other Congressional race out thereThe Republican (with the exceptions of Don Young and Ted Stevens, where I recommend a write-in) This will be much like my state Legislature endorsement. The current crop of Democrats are chomping at the bit to turn us into Cuba; don’t reward the leaders of the worst Congress ever with more seats.

President/Vice PresidentJohn McCain/Sarah Palin I know I’ll probably be fighting a McCain administration more than I’ll support it. The alternative, a socialization of this country, is too frightening.

Obama’s attack ad…on himself

by @ 15:45. Filed under Politics - National.

Mary Katharine Ham has collated the lowlights of Barack Obama’s flops, flips, and contradictions. Even though I’m not quite surprised anew (yes, I am THAT jaded), it is very useful to have them in one, convenient place.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3LZNc_TP_o[/youtube]

Revisions/extensions (6:05 pm 11/3/2008) – Jim Geraghty put up a rather exhaustive list of expired statements from Obama. It is, in my humble opinion, a great companion to this.

October 31, 2008

Which job is more honest?

by @ 19:53. Filed under Politics - National.

WCPO-TV in Cincinnati reports that ACORN canvasser Shari Bell was arrested for prostitution and drug paraphenalia possession Wednesday night. What is truly priceless is ACORN’s reaction to Bell’s unannounced absence from her ACORN job Wednesday (prior to her arrest) – they assumed she quit.

I almost turned this into an NRE poll, but discretion is the better part of valor cheap blogging.

Cartoon of the day – Air Obama edition

by @ 19:38. Filed under Politics - National.

From William Warren via Americans for Limited Government

October 30, 2008

He’s Not the Barack Obama We Knew!

by @ 11:26. Filed under Politics - National.

Folks,

This is a long video, nearly an hour, but well worth the time invested to watch it. If you want to speed read, you can do so here.

After extensive literary analysis and similar conclusions from four different analysis, Jack Cashill claims that Barack Obama did not write his first book “Dreams From My Father.” Cashill goes on to claim that Bill Ayers was responsible for writing and editing significant portions of Obama’s book.

Bill Ayers? Yup, that Bill Ayers! The Bill Ayers who Obama describes as “Just a guy in the neighborhood.” Interesting thing here, if Bill Ayers did write portions of the book it would seem like he was more than just “A guy in the neighborhood.” Pretty hard to ghost write a person’s memoirs without spending a whole lot of time with them.

Update: The link to Breitbart.TV was hosed. I’ll relink once I see that it actually works

We all know that the Barack Obama we see on the campaign trail is not the real Barack Obama. We clearly see through his writings and associations someone who does not believe America, in it’s current state to be a great hope to the world. However, with this revelation it would seem that Barack Obama may not even know the Barack Obama he supposed to be just a few short years ago.

October 29, 2008

ACORN, Obama campaign coordinated donor lists

by @ 17:48. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – LadyLogician)

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that Anita Moncrief, a former staffer for Project Vote, a sister organization of ACORN, testified in court that Project Vote received a “donor list” from the Obama campaign in late 2007 for fundraising efforts. Further, she claims to have a copy of a “development plan” that outlines how maxed-out Obama contributors would be targeted to give to Project Vote, and that she had taken a call from a campaign working asking whether it was the same organization that Obama had worked with in the 1990s.

Guess the acorns definitely don’t fall far from the tree.

Of course, this wouldn’t be complete without an ObamiNation In Your Face moment – Moncrief stated she received repeated warnings to “back off” from testifying in the hearing in a lawsuit brought by the Pennsylvania GOP against ACORN and the Secretary of the Commonwealth to make the voter registration process more transparent and less-prone to fraud.

If He Won’t Help Himself…

by @ 5:47. Filed under Politics - National.

…maybe others can.

John McCain has said that he will not use Jeremiah Wright as an issue in this campaign.   He believes that it is a “religious issue” and outside the bounds of political discussion.   I’m not sure how someone who Obama himself said was a “mentor,” someone who believes that the US purposely distributed AIDs to African Americans and has openly supported Kadhafi, Louis Farrakhan and Hamas isn’t a political issue but…

If McCain won’t pick up Wright as an issue himself, he now has help.   the National Repulican Trust PAC has picked up advertising time in a number of states and will be running this ad:

If you’re interested in aiding the funding of the buy for this ad you can go here.

AAAAAAAAAACCCCK!

by @ 5:05. Filed under Politics - National.

First, watch this:

I feel like the duck at the end of the commercial after he hears Yogi explain that “they give you cash which is just as good as money!”

Yes I feel like the duck after reading this article.

The article is an interview with Nancy Pelosi. In it, she explains why having an “All Democrat, all the time” Congress would be a good thing. It’s mostly typical drivel from Pelosi until she gets to this pearl of wisdom:

“Elect us, hold us accountable, and make a judgment and then go from there. But I do tell you that if the Democrats win, and have substantial majorities, Congress of the United States will be more bipartisan,” said Pelosi.

AAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCK?

Having Democrat majorities in both chambers will make Congress more “bipartisan?”   Pelosi proved this session, by shutting off debate and not accepting amendments, what she believes “bipartisan” to be.   The only way you could consider a lopsided Democrat control of Congress as “bipartisan” would be that there would be no effective means to argue with any of Pelosi’s halfwit ideas and petulant demands.

Bipartisan, my butt!   Dictatorship, despotism, authoritarianism, autocray, totalitarianism and tyranny, maybe!

October 28, 2008

Poll-a-copia, P(w)ew and Galluping edition

by @ 16:13. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

And I mean that in a stinky way. Jim Geraghty did the the math on Pew’s latest poll (which has Obama up 53%-38% among likely voters), and found that Pew’s bias is 38.83% Democrat, 32.57% independent, and 28.61% Republican. Jim also notes that Pew’s spread was only off by one percentage point in their end-of-the-race 2006 poll bias (they had it at +4 D, it was +3 D).

Given that Gallup’s tracking polls have Obama up by 2 with the traditional model and 7 with the “expanded” one, something is seriously hosed.

New video – Barack The Vote… Barack The Future

by @ 15:25. Filed under Politics - National.

This just came in to the mailbox from my friends at Empower Texans.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zaGQdWOcbc[/youtube]

Do vote responsibly.

Coincidence? I Think Not!

by @ 5:50. Filed under Politics - National.

On the first business day after the Anchorage Daily News endorsed “The One” for President, the McClatchy news bureau does a hit piece on Sarah Palin:

Just how big a drag is Palin on the McCain campaign?

Of course, McClatchy owns the Anchorage Daily News.

While the hit piece isn’t unsuspected, the conclusions they attempt to draw are humorous at best, most likely intended to slant or flat out lies at worse.

Of course, McClatchy relies on the same RINO assessments that we’ve been hearing since Palin was selected:

Prominent Republicans have echoed that idea. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., one of McCain’s closest friends, suggested that Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent Democrat from Connecticut, would have brought independents to the ticket. Last week, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge said that had McCain picked him, the Republican Party would have had a better shot at winning his state.

Ah, no!   Had McCain chosen Lieberman or Ridge for that matter, conservatives would have either stayed home on election day or just voted the down ticket races.  

Beyond Graham and Ridge, McClatchy trots out a host of other unknown, local RINOs who complain that Palin has been an embarrassment.   What’s McClatchy’s definition of “embarrassment?”

She also unabashedly identifies herself with the party’s conservative wing, alienating moderates.

“It reinforced the notion that John McCain cared little about people like me,” said former Maine state Rep. Sherry Huber, a Republican who backed McCain in the primary but now supports Obama. “She clearly does not share the values I and other moderate Republicans do.”

I’m trying to figure out which plank of the Republican platform that Palin violates which causes people like Ms. Huber to find her offensive?   Prolife?   Lower Taxes?   Smaller government?

The only part that McClatchy got right on Palin was their begrudging admission that she does invigorate the Conservative Base:

The Republican base loves Palin.

“So many people can relate to her. She really appeals to everyday housewives, people who go out and hunt, and people who have done great things in their life,” said Bob Dodge, a retired communications engineer in Sarasota, Fla.

Whether McCain wins or not it’s clear that Palin has cut a clear line between what RINOs and Conservatives look like.   The question will be whether the Conservatives will choose to fight for the party or allow it to further drift towards the Democrat Lite position.

If the Republican party goes down in flames this election there’s going to be a lot of focus on what went wrong.   You can bet there will be a lot of focus on whether the messaging was right, distinguished from the Dems.   Until then, RINOs of all shapes and sizes are working to make sure that Sarah Palin disappears like The Hollywood Argyles.   Coincidence?   I think not!

October 27, 2008

Re: Another Poll At RightWingNews.com

by @ 12:18. Filed under Politics - National, The Blog.

Shoebox already gave his answers to John Hawkins’ latest poll of right-of-center bloggers. Answering that was one of the last things I did on the desktop before it bricked (no, not the last, and I’ll put up more on that in a bit). I may as well put up my answers, with the answers bolded and expansions in italics.

1) Who do you think is going to win the election?

A) John McCain – I had to flip a coin here, and it came up heads.
B) Barack Obama

2) Do you think Sarah Palin has been a plus or a minus to the ticket?

A) Minus
B) Plus – Let me put it this way; had McCain picked just about anybody else, he would be down 10 in the non-cooked polls as well.

3) How do you feel about Sarah Palin as a candidate?

A) I really like her! – Even though she does show a bit too much populism, she has shown a willingness to go RINO-hunting.
B) She’s so-so.
C) I’m not a big fan!

4) The Republican Party did poorly in the 2006 election and even if McCain wins is on track to do poorly again in this years Congressional races. If you had to choose between these two options, do you think that’s because they were

A) Too conservative
B) Not conservative enough – I’m a firm believer in Rush Limbaugh’s maxim that conservatism wins when it is actually tried and implemented. That is something singularily not done over the last 3 years by the GOP.

5) Do you believe the mainstream media’s coverage has been"¦
A) Relatively fair and even handed.
B) Slightly biased in favor of Barack Obama.
C) Slightly biased in favor of John McCain.
D) Heavily biased in favor of Barack Obama. – No, really? I could give example after example, after example, but Jon Ham already has.
E) Heavily biased in favor of John McCain.

6) Do you think Barack Obama is"¦

A) Honest (Yes or no?) – I don’t know where my “depends” ended up, but I also noted Obama’s unguarded slip of his one-party Socialism (nee Communism) wishes to Joe the Plumber was brutally-honest.
B) Patriotic (Yes or no?) -I don’t question what is plainly not there.
C) Qualified be President (Yes or no?) – Too bad there wasn’t a “Oh Hell No!” option.

Oh, What the Heck!

by @ 9:45. Filed under Politics - National.

OK, everyone else will have this up on their site and I’m sure it will spin through chain emails.   While I would normally pass on this due to it being “everywhere,” this one just can’t go without comment.   In fact, I’m even going to use my new flashy light thingy to draw more attention!

In case you’ve just returned from several years on a deserted island, next Tuesday is election day.   We can go back and forth between the policy differences between the two candidates but that is wasted time at this point.   If you are at all ambivalent on who to vote for or if you have decided to vote for Barack Obama yet believes that the United States is a light to the world, consider that the next President will get to decide the makeup of the Supreme Court for at least a generation.

Our choice comes down to a candidate who believes the Constitution of the US is the supreme law of the US and should be followed.   Our other choice is a candidate who in the attached piece, states that he believes the Supreme Court should not be bound by the Constitution.   He intimates that it is only the Court’s lack of desire, not their Constitutional ability, to fundamentally  interpret the Constitution to reflect one of any of a number of European countries.

Listen to the piece.

Another Poll At RightWingNews.com

by @ 8:55. Filed under Politics - National.

John Hawkins at Rightwingnews.com has put up another poll of Right-of-Center bloggers.   You’ll find the poll here and my responses below:

1) Who do you think is going to win the election?

A) John McCain
B) Barack Obama

2) Do you think Sarah Palin has been a plus or a minus to the ticket?

A) Minus
B) Plus

3) How do you feel about Sarah Palin as a candidate?

A) I really like her!
B) She’s so-so.
C) I’m not a big fan!

4) The Republican Party did poorly in the 2006 election and even if McCain wins is on track to do poorly again in this years Congressional races. If you had to choose between these two options, do you think that’s because they were

A) Too conservative
B) Not conservative enough

5) Do you believe the mainstream media’s coverage has been…
A) Relatively fair and even handed.
B) Slightly biased in favor of Barack Obama.
C) Slightly biased in favor of John McCain.
D) Heavily biased in favor of Barack Obama.
E) Heavily biased in favor of John McCain.

6) Do you think Barack Obama is…

A) Honest (Yes or no?)
B) Patriotic (Yes or no?)
C) Qualified be President (Yes or no?)

Probably no real big surprises in the poll’s answers.   Yes, I want McCain to win and while I think it can still happen, if I had to put money down today I’d have to say he won’t.   That’s not defeatism, just an assessment.

I had problems answering the honesty question.   There have certainly been things I would consider dishonest answers from Obama.   However, I don’t know that they were in his mind and if I were honest I’m sure I could find equally equivocated answers from McCain that if I was partisan left, I would find dishonest.

I do like Sarah Palin.   She strikes me as genuine.   I don’t get the smarmy meter running to extremes when I hear her talk, unlike nearly every other politician I’ve ever met, left or right.

October 24, 2008

ObamiNation In Your Face Violence Tour – pollster edition

by @ 15:41. Filed under Politics - National.

Jim Geraghty reports that Strategic Vision is getting death threats for daring to report that the McCain/Palin ticket has pulled ahead of the Obama/Biden ticket in Florida and Ohio (48%-46% and 48%-45% respectively).

Let’s take a look at the three messages that David Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, shared with National Review Online:

My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!

A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.

Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.

Notes Johnson, “It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this. It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”

George Orwell was only 24 years off.

Hmmmmmmmmm

by @ 5:50. Filed under Politics - National.

Investors Business Daily is now putting out a daily tracking poll of the Presidential race.   They were the most accurate poll of the 2004 race.   As of today, IBD has McCain down just 1.1 points.   The poll has McCain having closed from a 7 point deficit just since last weekend.   As interesting as that gap close is, I’m more interested in another stat.

I thought the MSM has been telling us about all of the excited, first time to vote college students.   People  who were part of the millions that were newly registered Democrats.   People  that were already standing outside of polling places to make sure they would get a chance to vote for “The One.”   Isn’t that what the great wildcard is for Barack; whether the youth, who have never come out in droves before, will turn off their Wiis, put down their beers and vote?    

If the youth are the great hope for Barack, can someone explain how the IBD poll shows 18-24 year olds breaking for John McCain 74% to 22% for Barack Obama?

Watch the next 10 days folks.   The MSM story lines don’t seem to always be aligned with the poll internals.   There is something that just isn’t smelling right across most of these polls.   It could be a wild 10 days.

October 23, 2008

Re: Hunting PUMAs

by @ 7:49. Filed under Elections, Politics - National.

First things first; if you haven’t read Shoebox’s post, go read it now, then come back for some expansion on that.

I briefly noted the disappearance of the PUMAs in a different poll (specifically, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll) near the end of last month. Since we’re talking about the Gallup weekly aggregate of the daily tracking poll, I’ll use Gallup’s numbers to expand on that.

Gallup has been running the weekly aggregate since the week of June 9-15. That week, Barack Obama’s support was 78% of Democrats/43% of Independents/9% of Republicans, while John McCain’s support was 13%D/39%I/84%R. In terms of Democrats, 22% didn’t support Obama, with 13% specifically supporting McCain and the other 9% either supporting a third-party candidate or “undecided” (which includes not voting).

That held rather steady until the Democratic convention. Pre-convention Democratic support of Obama topped out at 82% the week of 7/7-7/13, and returned to 78% the week prior to the convention (8/18-8/24) when he announced Joe Biden as his running mate. Meanwhile, the Democratic support for McCain never dropped below 10% in that time frame (with the low point 7/7-7/13) and topped out at 14% just before the Democratic convention, while the “undecideds” remained between 8% and 9% (the lower just before the Democratic convention). That tracks rather well with Shoebox’s estimates that, had the PUMAs stuck to their guns instead of party, McCain could have had somewhere around 15% of support from Democrats, though I would have been happy with the 12% average that he did get between June and mid-August.

The Democratic convention week (8/25-8/31), which was immediately followed by McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin, provided a boost to the Obama/Biden ticket for Democrats, but not a decisive one. The Obama/Biden ticket saw support from 85% of Democrats that week, with a 9% support to McCain and 6% undecided. Democratic support for the Obama/Biden ticket actually dipped in the next couple weeks: the 9/1-9/7 aggregate saw it drop to 83%, with 11% supporting McCain/Palin, and the 9/8-9/14 aggregate saw McCain/Palin pick up another percent from the “undecideds” to bring that back to the average between June and mid-August.

However, there has been a steady march back to the roost for the PUMAs since then. The Obama/Biden-to-McCain/Palin splits among Democrats have been, in succession, 85%/10%, 86%/10%, 87%/8%, 87%/9% and now 89%/7%.

Shoebox’s reminder back in August that there wasn’t much of a difference between Obama and Hillary Clinton, and specifically his concerns that the PUMAs would remember that before the election, are coming true.

Hunting PUMAs

by @ 5:58. Filed under Politics - National.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Be wery wery qwiat! I’m hunting PUMAs!

Do you remember back to the end of the primary season? That wonderful, wistful time when we had coalesced behind our candidate and were watching Hillary and Barack clawing at each other?

Do you remember towards the end, before the conventions, after it was clear that Barack was going to be the Dem’s nominee? Do you remember how many of the Hillary supporters, after her shabby and sexist treatment by the DNC and Obama, vowed that they would never vote for Obama? Do you remember how they formed a little group and became known as PUMAs?

With apologies to Pete Seeger:

Where have all the PUMAs gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the PUMAS gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the PUMAS gone?
Became conforming everyone?
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Where have the PUMAs gone? In late August there were polls  showing that 21% of Hillary supporters were committed to vote for McCain, 52% would vote for Obama and 27% were still undecided. Hillary and Barack pretty much split the primary vote. If 21% of Hillary supporters were committed to McCain, that should translate to at least 10.5% of Democrat support for McCain. With 21% still uncommitted, it wouldn’t be too hard to imagine that if the PUMAs held together, the Democrat support for McCain could be around 15%. If those numbers make sense, why does the most recent Gallup poll only show 7% of Democrats support McCain?

I wrote at the end of August, during the height of Republican PUMA giddiness, that the PUMA’s disgust with Obama was entirely based on emotion with no substance; the policy differences between Hillary and Obama were “Change you could Xerox!” I was concerned then, that once some time elapsed, the emotion would wane and the PUMAs who had vowed fidelity to John McCain would regain their senses and return to feast at the table of “Hope and Change.”

It appears that while the PUMAs entered the final phase of the election season as lions, they will exit as lambs. Unless of course, they’ve managed to pull off a brilliant deception on all of the pollsters. In that case the adage “Revenge is a dish best served cold,” comes to mind. I can’t imagine anything colder than allowing Obama to believe he has the Democrat vote sown up, only to find that the “Bradley effect” will forever more be known as the “PUMA effect!”

October 22, 2008

I am Joe the Plumber

by @ 13:41. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes)

The McCain campaign has unleashed an ad that ought to be somewhat familiar to those of us who are John Doe.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWSEcL9xFQk[/youtube]

Just because I can, and because the original is THAT GOOD, I’ll bring back the original.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfguzjUoCoI[/youtube]

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