No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics – National' Category

August 28, 2009

It’s Not About Me?

If you didn’t pick up on it during his candidacy, there are two things we now know about President Obama.  First, he is a committed leftist; no government involvement or control is too much in his view.  Second, his ego is second in size only to the deficit that his leftist policies are creating.

Within hours of his death, Democrat leadership began attempting to breath new life to the health care bill by attaching Ted Kennedy’s name to it.

“In his honor and as a tribute to his commitment to his ideals, let us stop the shouting and name calling and have a civilized debate on health care reform which I hope, when legislation has been signed into law, will bear his name for his commitment to insuring the health of every American,”

was the lament from Senator Robert Byrd.  And:

“Ted Kennedy’s dream of quality health care for all Americans will be made real this year because of his leadership and his inspiration,”

From Speaker Pelosi.

Even with the new, paid for supportive astroturf that the Democrats have been able to get into their townhalls, the public remains fully against the implementation of a government run health care program.  Rasmussen reports that while “support for the health plan has quit falling,” it is still opposed by a majority of voters.  Additionally, by greater than a 2:1 margin, “voters believe the proposed reforms would make the quality of care worse rather than better.”  It seems like a long uphill slog for passage of the bill, at least in its current form.

Ted Kennedy’s public funeral will be held Saturday morning.  We’ve learned that President Obama will deliver the eulogy.  I have one question.

With Cap and Trade likely dead for the year and his other major push health care, on the ropes, will President Obama be able to control his personal ego long enough to deliver an eulogy that actually has Ted Kennedy as the focus or will he succumb and use the event of the funeral to fan his own ego and push the health care reform bill?

Remember, never let a crisis or a highly personal and emotional event, go to waste!

August 27, 2009

Slight change in the Paul Ryan Monday listening sessions

If I had checked my e-mail this morning, I would have found this press release relating to the moves of all the Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, and my Congressman) Monday listening sessions earlier (and would have caught the error in the original press release for the Greendale one earlier as well – it is correct in the current schedule on Ryan’s House site):

Larger Venues Set For Paul Ryan’s Upcoming Listening Sessions

New locations for Racine, Big Bend, New Berlin and Greendale stops

All three of Congressman Paul Ryan’s Listening Sessions on Monday, August 31 have been moved to larger venues to accommodate First District residents seeking to participate in the health care debate. At the eleven listening sessions held in the previous three days, most venues have been at or above capacity, with record attendance at each stop.

The dates and times for all upcoming stops remain as previously scheduled. See below for an updated schedule – with new locations – of Congressman Paul Ryan’s Listening Sessions today and Monday:

Thursday, August 27

Rochester – 9:45-10:30 am
Municipal Hall, 203 West Main Street

Sturtevant – 11:15 am-12:15 pm
Village Hall, 2801 89th Street

Racine – 1:30-2:30 pm
Roma Lodge, 7130 Spring Street
NOTE: venue change to accommodate anticipated larger crowds (note; this was previously noted on my original post.)

Monday, August 31

Big Bend – 12:45-1:45 pm
Big Bend Elementary School, Gymnasium
W230S8695 Big Bend Drive
NOTE: venue change to accommodate anticipated larger crowds

New Berlin (Greenfield) – 2:00-3:00 pm
Whitnall High School, Auditorium
5000 S 116th Street
NOTE: The New Berlin stop has been moved to the Greenfield community to accommodate anticipated larger crowds

Greendale – 3:30-4:30 pm
Greendale High School, Auditorium
6801 Southway
NOTE: venue change to accommodate anticipated larger crowds

The rules are for thee, not for me – TurboTaxTimmy edition

by @ 11:13. Filed under Politics - National, Taxes.

(H/T – DRJ)

The TaxProfBlog found that, a few short months after Treasury Secretary “TurboTax” Timothy Geithner successfully dodged criticism and possible legal consequences over his failure to timely pay taxes by claiming TurboTax didn’t properly process his income tax returns for several years, the Tax Court rejected that defense in another case:

Petitioners have not met their burden of persuasion with respect to reasonable cause and good faith. Mr. Hopson admitted that he received both Forms 1099-R for the distributions and that he knew they constituted income. After using tax return preparation software for nearly 20 years, he simply filed the return that was generated by the software without reviewing it. The omission of the distributions resulted in the failure to report over 40 percent of petitioners’ total income for the year. Granted this was a one-time event, but petitioners nevertheless had a duty to review their return to ensure that all income items were included. Petitioners were not permitted to bury their heads in the sand and ignore their obligation to ensure that their tax return accurately reflected their income for 2006. In the end, reliance on tax return preparation software does not excuse petitioners’ failure to review their 2006 tax return.

Do note that the decision of the Star Chamb…er, Tax Court is final; according to the Internal Revenue Code, not even the Supreme Court can review it. Also note that it is not precedent-setting.

August 26, 2009

Rest in peace, Sen. Kennedy (1932-2009)

by @ 10:34. Filed under Politics - National.

Those of you in a cave may not know the news – Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) passed away last night after battling a brain tumor. It is a sad day for his party, the Senate, and our country.

I’ll leave it to others to eulogize Sen. Kennedy. I recommend Baseball Crank’s take. For those of you who are thinking about taking cheap shots, listen to Michelle Malkin:

There is a time and place for political analysis and criticism. Not now.

Yes, there will be a nauseating excess of MSM hagiographies and lionizations — and crass calls to pass the health care takeover to memorialize his death.

That’s no excuse to demonstrate the same lack of restraint in the other direction. Not now.

I do, however, disagree with Michelle about not talking about the generalities of the implications. First, nothing of significance changes in the Senate for the moment, even though the Senate is now short a member. Because of his illness, he was rarely in the Senate to provide the 60th anti-filibuster vote. Of course, the need for that has been an illusion; there were almost always enough “Republicans” to break up any filibuster.

The reason why it is merely for the moment is the Massachusetts ganders of the Democratic Party are meeting the goose’s sauce. They failed to reverse a screw job they planned for then-governor Mitt Romney (R) by taking away the power of the governor to appoint a temporary replacement until the next general election. Now, there will be a special election held between 145 days and 160 days from now.

Shortly after that point, the Democrats will, assuming Masachusetts does what it has done since 1976 and send a Democrat to the Senate, have 60 permanent members of their caucus. I have a bad feeling about the second session of the 111th Congress.

Revisions/extensions (10:15 am 8/27/2009) – Somehow had the wrong birth year for Kennedy. Mea culpa.

The Killer Instinct

Large amounts of talent combined with training and technology have made it reasonably easy to field “good” teams in hockey, football, basketball or baseball. However, it is the rare team that moves beyond good and becomes dominating. The difference between the “good” teams and those that dominate their sport is one thing; killer instinct.

You may not be able to precisely define “killer instinct” but all sports fans know it when they see it.  Nobody left a Joe Montana and the Fortyniners game no matter what the score.  You knew that Joe was going to play until the last down of the game scoring at every opportunity he had.  Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, some years of the Yankees and the Edmonton Oilers with Wayne Gretzy are all examples of athletes and teams that played with “killer instinct”

But, you say, this is a political blog.  What’s going on with the sports analysis?

As with sports, politicians are separated by the ability to have a “killer instinct.”  Look at Norm Coleman against Al Franken.  Ahead in the polls until he decided to side step ANWAR, vote for the stimulus and decide that he no longer wanted to run a “negative campaign” even though he had done that from day one until they day he changed with 6 weeks left.  Norm is the perfect example of a politician who not only didn’t have a killer instinct, he showed he had little political instinct of any kind.

The race between John McCain and Barack Obama also came down to killer instinct.  One had it and one didn’t.  You can probably figure out which was which.

Anyone paying attention can see that the health care plan is on the ropes and cap and trade may well be on life support.  The public, across all demographics except the extreme loons, are responding to polls with the equivalent of “I didn’t vote for Obama!”  We see early contests in Virginia and New Jersey showing polls that seem to support a significant and sudden swing towards Republicans.  Everything is pointing towards a significant resurgence for Republicans.  The question is, do they have the killer instinct?

Unlike the left who has never had any concern about “rubbing their nose in it” when winning, Republicans seem to have an inbred need to be liked by the other side.  The result is that when they get a chance to gain ground, Republicans often feel the need to “compromise” to allow the other side the ability to save face.

The Republicans (I use this term generically and certainly don’t mean all people who run under that banner) have gained ground, not through their own actions.  Rather, the Republicans are gaining in popularity mostly because in a two party system, they are the only other option.  While the Republicans benefit from being “the only other choice” today, I wouldn’t be betting my house on it sticking.  Based on the fact that a large portion of the general population are revolting against their political masters I think there is a fair chance that a “throw all the bums out” mentality takes hold if the Republicans look to cave on health care or once again become Democrat lite.

You don’t think the Republicans could be that dumb again right?  Wrong!

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, a Michigan Republican Representative, has introduced a bill that would provide a $3,500 deduction for “qualified pet care expenses.”  The Representative is concerned of family hardships as a result of pet care costs during this time tough economic time.

How can any clear headed Republican think that providing a tax deduction for pet care makes sense when A: we have a hellacious deficit already,  B: human health care costs are subject to a 7% threshold of adjusted gross income and C: most of the Republicans and the general public are fighting to abolish further government intrusion into health care for people.  Does Thaddeus really think there is an urgency of any kind for the government (me and you) subsidizing health care for animals when we don’t want to do it for humans?

A stupid bill like this proves that Thaddeus McCotter does not have the killer instinct!  I hope to hell the rest of the Republicans have better political instincts.  If they don’t I’ll lead the parade for a third party.

August 24, 2009

We’ve Only Just Begun

After stalling for nearly a month, late Friday afternoon, the Obama administration leaked that their periodic budget/deficit update was going to show…..well, let’s just call it a deviation from expectations.  Rather than “cut the deficit in half as he promised, President Obama will reportedly tell us that he will increase the deficit by $2 trillion dollars to $9 trillion dollars over the next ten years.

While this new forecast is in line with what the CBO estimated back when Obama proposed his budget, it still seriously underestimates what the deficit will be if Obama gets his policies enacted. Obama’s two largest endeavors, cap and trade and health care reform were not considered in the CBO’s June estimate.

While it’s hard to tell what effect cap and trade will have on the deficit, we do have numbers from the CBO on the effect of health care reform. The CBO estimates that the $9 trillion deficit will increase at least another $1 trillion if the House bill is passed. I say “at least” because we now know that the Obama administration doesn’t have an accountant or an economist who either is honest or any good at their job. Doubt me? Just go back and look at the assumptions they made for the stimulus, the budget, cap and trade or health care reform and then look at what the CBO said. Who has appeared to be accurate?

I also say “at least” because there is historical evidence that the first year of all major government health programs have been significantly underestimated. Take a look at this graph from John Goodman’s Health Policy Blog:

health care graph

It turns out that regardless of the administration, government run health care plans always cost more than they are expected to. Why, you might ask? Well, if you’re selling something, are you more likely to tell the “buyers” what the best or worst case scenario might be?

Taking a simple average of the plans on the graph, it suggests that the government health programs cost 538% of what the original estimate was.  OK, let’s not be the Russian judge.  Let’s throw out the high and the low misses.  Doing that still has costs coming in at 414% of the original estimate. 

If history is any indicator, the $1 health care reform plan will cost significantly more.  How do you like the sound of $4 trillion for health care and a 10 year deficit of “at least $12 trillion?

Whether $2 trillion or $5 trillion more, I think this video pretty well sums up the public response:

August 23, 2009

The polls are all wee-wee’d up

by @ 11:23. Filed under Politics - National.

I wonder if this is what President Obama had in mind when he lapsed into baby talk on Friday – The Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index hits a new low of -14. The dirty details on the first full day’s worth of polling after the wee-wee leakage (which also includes Thursday and Friday):

– Only 27% of all respondents strongly approve of Obama’s job performance, which is a new low.
– He’s starting to lose the Dems; less than half (49%) strongly approve.
– 41% of all respondents strongly disapprove, which ties the high.
– The slippage of independents continues; 49% strongly disapprove.

Unfortunately for himself, his party, and his country, Obama has called for the dynamite to blast through rock bottom. I just hope he remembers to chant, “Fire in the hole!” three times before detonation.

Revisions/extensions (11:40 am 8/23/2009) – (H/T – Michelle Malkin) Speaking of craters, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports on a Mason-Dixon poll that shows Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid losing to either Danny Tarkanian or Sue Lowden in a potential 2010 matchup. If Reid gets knocked out, he will be the second sitting Senate Democratic leader to lose in 6 years. Time to Daschle his dreams.

August 22, 2009

This Little POTUS Poem

Obama Market

Obama Oval
obama iceObama none girlObama lied

August 21, 2009

Friday Hot Read part drei – MadisonConservative’s “A game of Monopoly – Health Care edition”

by @ 16:24. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

Back in the day, I played a real cut-throat Monopoly. However, I wasn’t nearly as cut-throat as the federal government. I’ll let MadisonConservative explain:

Now, let’s say I’m playing with four other people. The four other people are normal monopoly players, playing by the normal rules. They represent private insurance companies. Now, I’m going to join the game. However, I get a different set of rules because I say so. I represent the public option.

First, in normal Monopoly rules, everyone collects $200 from the bank when they pass GO. Let’s refer to this as the capital that insurance companies get in order to run their business. They get it from revenues earned by competing in the health insurance market. However, for me, the rule is different. When I pass go, instead of getting $200 from the bank(customers), I instead collect $50 from each of the other players. Why? Well, the government gets its revenues by collecting taxes, not by providing competitive services. So, while the other players are collecting their money from passing GO from customers, I’m collecting my money from them. Their wealth is going down, directly leading to mine going up. Already, I have an advantage, because I’m the government. Guess what, though? Not only do I collect $50 from each of the other players every time I pass go, but I get $100 from the bank! See, the government doesn’t only collect taxes from businesses, but they also collect it from their customers! Once again, I have an advantage, because I’m the government.

Of course, there is more over at the HotAir Greenroom, so enjoy it. Do also read the comments.

How Did This Guy Get Through Harvard?

by @ 11:06. Filed under Obama worship, Politics - National.

Mortgage modification program – Fail!

Stimulus Program – Fail!

Cash for Clunkers – Fail!

Cap and Trade – Fail!

Fiscal Year Budget – Fail!

Foreign Policy – FailFail!

Is there anything that Obama has done that has worked or inspired the Country?  Apparently not!

Friday Hot Read part 2 – Maggie Thurber’s “Obama doesn’t get it – this isn’t a campaign anymore”

Maggie Thurber explains why the PermaCampaign that Obama is trying on health care is doomed to failure:

But that point aside, trying to convince people with the same ideology that you’re the best one of several to represent that ideology is much different from convincing an entire nation, the majority of whom claim no party or are Republicans, to join your cause.

Obama isn’t going to the opposing side and presenting his viewpoint on the issue, he’s handpicking audiences and ‘preaching to the choir’ and trying to re-energize his base. But that will only go so far as the vast majority of Americans are not in that group to begin with.

He’s still in campaign mode, trying to sell an idea, when the public would rather have the facts and the details – all the things they were too busy to bother with during the actual campaign. Now that Obama is in the White House, the public expects him to manage the operations, though he’s had absolutely no experience whatsoever in doing something even remotely similar. And now it shows, especially in how he blames everyone else for his failure in this regard.

As always, I highly recommend reading the entire thing.

The trend is not Obama’s friend

by @ 7:27. Filed under Politics - National.

Regular readers will know that Shoebox and I have been tracking Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, and that it has been not-so-good for Obama the last month. The Presidential Approval Index (those with strong opinions) has been negative since June 30, and most days since July 24, the overall approval rating has been negative.

Other pollsters are starting to notice this trend. Door #1 – Gallup. While they still show a positive job approval for Obama in their daily tracking poll (out of all adults, not just “likely voters” as Rasmussen polls), the spread has never been closer than the current 51% approve/42% disapprove.

Door #2 – Zogby Interactive (H/T – Allahpundit). I do have to caution that Zogby Interactive polls involve a pool of self-selected people, so I do not put a lot of stock in it. I also have to caution that Zogby has not yet released all the numbers itself; just the 45% approval among likely voters. However, Newsmax got a hold of the poll early, and again, the trend is not Obama’s friend: 50% disapproval, highest disapproval/lowest approval in the history of the Zogby Interactive polling, and a loss of independents (38% approve/59% disapprove).

Door #3 – The Washington Post/ABC News poll (H/T again – Hot Air Headlines). While Obama’s approval rating is still at 57% (versus a poll-high 40% disapproval), only 49% believe Obama will make the right decisions for the country, and 55% say the country is on the wrong track.

Friday Hot Read – Mary Katharine Ham’s “What To Do When Washington Gets All Wee-Weed Up?”

by @ 6:41. Filed under Politics - National.

There is a reason why the blogosphere loves MKH beyond her beauty – she is brilliant. She teed off on Obama’s use of “wee-wee”:

“There’s something about August going into September where everyone in Washington gets all ‘wee-weed’ up,” the president said.

Yes, wee-wee, the sneakiest fear-monger. Tinkle, the silent consensus-killer. There is some debate as to what the president meant, though it may have had something to do with Sarah Palin? I don’t know, everyone’s equally stumped….

You’re going to have to go to The Weekly Standard to get the upshot. Trust me on this one.

You really should be following her on Twitter as well. Her younger brothers may not be too happy, but if one can’t laugh at family, who can one laugh at?

August 20, 2009

Hot Read Thursday – Doug Ross’s “Real Men of Congress”

by @ 6:31. Filed under Politics - National.

Remember Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” commercials? Doug Ross put together a version featuring Congressman John Murtha (D-PA), and you actually have your choice of places to look at it. Since Doug is part of Hot Air’s Greenroom, you can either look at it over at Doug Ross @ Journal or Hot Air Greenroom.

I can’t do this justice by excerpting, and I don’t feel like lifting the entire thing. So go, read.

Breakin’ Up Is Hard To Do

Quick, put together a list of famous duos. Here’s the one I just came up with:

Sonny and Cher
The Carpenters
Lewis and Martin
Abbott and Costello
Fred and Ginger
Bergen and McCarthy
Siskel and Ebert
Murphy and Duel

Odd thing about my list is that while they were all incredible talents when together, the individual performers never seemed to rise to the same level of fame and accomplishment once the duos broke up.  This is especially true in situations where one of the partners died like Siskel and Ebert or Murphy and Duel, andlet’s face it, Charlie McCarthy was never quite the same after Edgar Bergen’s death.

I’d like to add one more duo to the list of “great when together but awful separately;”  POTUS and TOTUS.

POTUS and TOTUS were one of the most amazing political duos ever.  Focused, eloquent and convincing are just some of the adjectives used to describe the performances of these two. 

Who can forget their performance in Germany where POTUS apologized for America saying:

I know my country has not perfected itself. At times, we’ve struggled to keep the promise of liberty and equality for all of our people. We’ve made our share of mistakes, and there are times when our actions around the world have not lived up to our best intentions.

Or the night POTUS won the Democrat nomination and in Minneapolis, TOTUS came up with this unforgettable line:

this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal…

Sadly, like several of my notable duos, the incredible talents of this duo ended with the death of one of the partners; TOTUS.  We now know that like Peter Duel, TOTUS led a troubled life and on July 13, 2009, chose to end it.

What caused TOTUS to end his life? 

Through June, POTUS’ strongly disapprove ratings had not moved above the low 30’s.  On July 2nd, the strongly disapprove rating hit 35% and has been moving up since then.

On June 28th, Rasmussen reported that Republicans had taken a lead, outside of the margin of error, in the generic poll for the first time in a few years.

These events made it clear to TOTUS that despite his best efforts, POTUS was a complete loser.  TOTUS understood that it was one thing to be performing together in the carefully crafted and controlled environments of campaigns.  However, it was now a completely different challenge to try to perform together in the rough and tumble world of actually governing.  No matter how good TOTUS was, no matter how well he did his job, he understood that POTUS wasn’t up to it and was going to hold him back.  Worse, while TOTUS was handling his end of the act flawlessly, POTUS was the one who got all the adulation.

The final straw for TOTUS came on July 12th.  This was the day that Rasmussen reported that the most important issue that POTUS and TOTUS campaigned for, health care reform, now had more Americans against it than supporting it.  Seeing that this was the beginning of the end and knowing that he wouldn’t be able to convince POTUS to resign, TOTUS did the honorable thing and threw himself from the stage.

Since the death of TOTUS, POTUS hasn’t been the same.  Several times last week, POTUS attempted to convince Americans that the government could run successful commercial operations by pointing to the continuing loses of the USPS!  Over the weekend, POTUS said he wasn’t for single payer before he said he was for single payer before he said he never said he was for single payer health care. 

Clearly, POTUS has loss his luster.  As his polls and those of his pet projects continue to sink, POTUS attempts to maintain his swagger as if he was still in the halcyon days working with TOTUS; but he’s not.

It was sad to watch Sonny attempt to perform without Cher.  It’s incredibly sad to watch Ebert become gloomier and reserve praise only for the most obscure of foreign films, without Siskel.  Likewise, it’s sad to watch POTUS attempt to carry on.

When Peter Duel died the producers of Alias Smith and Jones attempted to bring in Roger Davis to fill the role.  The show only lasted another 17 shows and most of its fans felt it was a painful 17 shows.  Perhaps POTUS could learn something from Roger Davis.

August 19, 2009

Social Security – worse than expected

(H/T – Amanda Carpenter)

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), the ranking memeber on the House Committee on Financial Services, did an interview with The Tuscaloosa News editorial board, and unleashed a shocker – Social Security could start running deficits before 2012, far earlier than the most-recent “Intermediate Case” estimate from the Social Security/Medicare Fund trustees of 2016 for the combined OASDI Social Security funds. Quoting Bachus:

The situation is much worse than people realize, especially because of the problems brought on by the recession, near depression….

What this recession has done to Social Security is pretty alarming. We’ve known for 15 years that we were going to have to make adjustments to Social Security, but we still thought that was seven or eight years down the road. But if things don’t improve very quickly, we’re going to be dealing with that problem before we know it.

Back in May, when the trustees issued their report, Ed Morrissey and I picked up on a disturbing trend – there were several months of the OASDI fund running a negative monthly balance, with a very slim 12-month (April 2008-March 2009) positive yearly balance. At the time, I said, “I might not bet on Social Security running red for a 12-month period this year, but I’ll take the ‘early’ in just about any pool.” Looks like the “early” will be paying out.

Revisions/extensions (9:06 pm 8/19/2009) – I just took a quick look at the April and May numbers (I’m wondering why June’s is not available; this time in May, March’s numbers were), and they’re not all that encouraging:

– April had a net positive inflow (less “net interest”, which really is a future tax increase) of just under $20.5 billion. That compares very unfavorably to April 2008, which had a net positive inflow of about $24.3 billion.

– May had a net negative inflow of $1.9 billion, compared to a net positive inflow of $3.1 billion in May 2008.

Taking out the bogus positive of December 2008, that’s 6 out of the last 10 months that had a net negative inflow.

Since I previously warned that looking month-to-month is not a particularily good indicator, let’s put that in terms of year-over-year. That puts the 12-month rolling net inflow, as of May 2009, at just $43.3 billion, $8.9 billion less than the same number just 2 months prior.

One more thing – going back to my May post, I discussed the stoichastic model first sleuthed out by Chuck Blahous. Using a 5,000-run model, the trustees found that half of the time, Social Security went into the red before the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, the 2011 time frame Bachus talked about to The Tuscaloosa News is within the 80%-confidence window of that model. Indeed, that window starts in 2010, and runs until 2017.

R&E part 2 (12:51 pm 8/20/2009) – Welcome to the craziest part of the extended Hot Air universe. If you didn’t read Ed’s current column at American Issues Project, I recommend you do so sometime today.

In the meantime, I encourage you to take a look around and enjoy the hospitality Shoebox and I (but mostly Shoebox) have to offer.

R&E part 3 (9:18 am 8/21/2009) – Welcome Doug Ross @ Journal readers. Again, I encourage you to take a look around and enjoy the hospitality Shoebox and I have to offer.

August 18, 2009

Physician, Heal Thyself!

by @ 16:23. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

As the health care debate heats up, President Obama and other Democrats have identified a new villian; insurance companies.

At a press conference on July 22nd, President Obama said:

“You know, there had been reports just over the last couple of days of insurance companies making record profits. Right now, at the time when everybody’s getting hammered, they’re making record profits and premiums are going up.”

At the end of July, Nancy Pelosi identifiedthe new villains with:

“They are the villains. They have been part of the problem in a major way. They are doing everything in their power to stop a public option from happening.”

These comments coupled with a House plan that looks a lot like an expansion of Medicaid and Medicare to all, would cause one to think that we should have some empirical evidence that shows that a government run option is more cost effective.  One would think that with nearly 40 years of history, the fine government employees that provide oversight to Medicare and Medicaid, and would be dramatically expanded to support Obamacare, would have been able to squeeze every last penny of savings from the existing programs.  If so, wouldn’t we expect to see particularly Medicaid’s cost or rate of growth, to be lower than private insurance?

Yes we would but, no we don’t.

A study done by the Pacific Research Institute shows that rather than becoming more efficient than private insurance, Medicaid spending per person has outpaced private medical spending by 35% since 1970.  If that isn’t enough to question government efficiency, understand that this study understated total Medicaid costs and overstated private costs for the following reasons:

First, my analysis doesn’t adjust for cost-shifting from Medicaid to the Medicare prescription drug program. Medicaid used to cover many of the costs of drugs that have now been shifted to Medicare. As of 2005, just prior to the Medicare drug benefit’s full implementation, Medicaid’s per-patient costs had risen 53 percent (rather than 35 percent) more than per-patient NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

Second, my analysis counts the Medicare prescription drug program’s expenditures as part of privately purchased care, rather than as a part of Medicare.9 Because my analysis compares Medicaid’s costs to NHE apart from Medicaid and Medicare, this benefits Medicaid.

Third, it removes everyone on Medicaid or Medicare from the pool of patients receiving privately purchased care, even though a significant share of Medicaid patients’ care is covered not by Medicaid but privately — and even though, as of 2000, 32 percent of Medicare patients’ overall care (including
their Medicare copayments and Medigap insurance) was paid for privately.10 My methodology counts health care purchased privately by Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries among the costs of private care, without counting its recipients among the people receiving private care. If privately purchased health
care costs are divided by the whole U.S. population, rather than by the population not enrolled in Medicaid or Medicare, then Medicaid’s per-patient costs have increased 54 percent
more than per-patient NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

Fourth, it doesn’t adjust for any cost-shifting from Medicaid to the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). When SCHIP began in 1998, many Medicaid beneficiaries were shifted into that program. Over time, this has saved Medicaid billions without representing any actual improvement in cost containment. From 1970 to 1997, immediately prior to the start of SCHIP, Medicaid’s costs rose 81 percent more than NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

President Obama and the Democrats claim that by implementing the government option they will be able to drive savings and reduce the overall cost of health care.  The fact is that if Medicaid and Medicare had been held to a rate of growth equal that of private insurance, last year alone these programs would have cost $201 billion less, nearly a 25% reduction of what was actually spent.

Before government takes over private insurance, under the argument of cost savings and efficiency, we would be wise to suggest the old adage:

Physician, heal thyself!

We’re Smarter Than You!

by @ 5:38. Filed under Politics - National.

It didn’t start with TARP.

It didn’t start with the Stimulus bill

It didn’t start with the budget that blew all previous budget deficits to shame

It didn’t start with Cap and Tax

It didn’t even start with health care reform.

No, the anger politicians in DC and elsewhere have been hearing in emails, phone calls and town halls has been growing for a while. 

The anger has not been caused by any one politician.  The anger hasn’t been caused by any one political party.  The anger hasn’t been caused by a certain president or control of Congress by one political party or the other.

The anger is not coming from a particular age group. The anger isn’t coming from a particular economic class.  The anger isn’t coming from those who voted for one particular political party or even from people with a common political perspective.

The anger politicians across America are hearing and seeing is because more and more Americans believe that the perspective of Representative Eric Massa (D-NY) is the perspective that most politicians have towards their constituents:

Read the transcript here.

Voters are upset, currently at the Democrats but it could just as easily swing towards Republicans, with politicians who believe that being a public servant means “I don’t care what you think is right.  I don’t care what the Constitution says.  I’m smarter than you.  You’re lucky to have me!”

Um, not so much.  And many of you “smart folks” are going to be joining the unemployment ranks at the next election.

August 17, 2009

One noted BS’er congratulates another noted BS’er

My thanks to WTMJ-AM for posting the following statement from President Barack Obama issued in the wake of Gov. Jim Doyle’s non-reelection announcement:

Jim Doyle is a true friend and a tireless public servant. From the Peace Corps to Attorney General and then as Governor, he has demonstrated a commitment to helping those in need and a passion for fighting for what’s right. His tough and fair leadership enabled him to work across the aisle to strengthen education and spur economic recovery.

Jim’s unwavering dedication and his love for Wisconsin are evident in his 25 years of dedicated service to the state and the people of Wisconsin are lucky to have him as governor.

Doyle was mercurial and unwilling to reach across party lines, and we were very unlucky to have been stuck with him.

But, Of Course It Is

Early last year as the endorsement battle was fully engaged, videos and quotes of Obama’s long time pastor, Jeremiah Wright, came to light.  These videos and quotes showed the man that Obama referred to as his “mentor,” was a racist and anti-Semite.  Although he had spent the bulk of his adult life in Wright’s congregation, Obama denied that he knew of Wright’s heinous perspectives.  When challenged about Wright, Obama responded:

He does not speak for me.

In other words, Obama and the compliant media which echoed his defense, were telling us that this was a problem entirely with Wright, or as Obama might say “This isn’t about me!”  Those of us who had our own ability to think knew that the opposite was true, it was entirely about Obama and his acceptance of Wright’s ideology.

After the Saddleback Forum last August in which he denounced late term abortions, an audio tape surfaced of Obama arguing against an Illinois statue that would require medical support for babies that survived botched abortions.  In his attempt to reconcile his recently stated position with the past recordings, Obama tried multiple explanations.  All of the explanations were focused on issues that other people had created.  None of the explanations had anything to do with Obama changing his position, misunderstanding the issue or lying.  In other words, Obama could have said, “This isn’t about me!”  Again, a reasonably inquisitive mind was able to see that the excuses Obama rasied were red herrings and that in fact, the issue was all about Obama.

If you do a Google search of “Obama “not about me”” you’ll find numerous instances in stump speeches, his world reunification speech in Germany and even his endorsement acceptance speech where Obama told people that his candidacy was “not about me.”

During his last prime time media love fest, President Obama refuted that health care reform was a personal issue for him saying:

This isn’t about me!

In fact, you might say that Obama’s entire national political career has been spent with him telling people “this isn’t about me!

Since that last statement, President Obama has inserted himself directly and personally into the debate over health care reform.  At town hall meetings in New Hampshire, Montana and now Colorado, President Obama has personally defended health care reform.  At each stop he couriously debates and defends what is or isn’t in “the plan.”  Curious because President Obama doesn’t have a plan of his own and repeatedly responds to the few challenging questions by avoiding an answer or by making erroneous assertions about what the House plan contains.  Even the USAToday, a paper that is not considered unfriendly to Obama, identified numerous Obama falsehoods following the New Hampshire townhall.  Many of these falsehoods were repeated in Montana. 

What are the results?  In the month since he claimed it wasn’t about him, Obama’s dream of a government take over of health care has been met with stiff resistance.  Since Obama’s personal involvement, Rasumussen Reports polling shows that support for health reform has fallen 5% and those who disapprove of health care reform now represent a majority.  In a new poll by Rasmussen, 54% of voters now believe that doing nothing would be better than implementing the plan that is coming through the House.  This is especially important as independents favor doing nothing by almost a 3 to 1 margin.

Contrary to his protests, the health care debate is all about President Obama. 

Obama came into office on the sweet spot of a wave.  Iraq, a sagging economy and a Republican party that operated largely indistinguishably from the Democrats, gave Obama a populace that wanted change so badly they were willing to give an inexperienced, opportunistic, job hopper a chance to play president.  In fact, change was desired so badly that neither the media or those who supported Obama, stopped to ask much about the details as to what Obama wanted to change.  If they had, they would have found that from the start Obama was focused on the takeover of the health care industry via a single payer system and the takeover of energy via cap and trade.  These two items were/are cornerstone to the transformation of America that he envisions and promised.

After moving through the House with relative ease, Cap and Trade is sitting in the Senate.  60 votes are required to move the Cap and Trade bill through the Senate.  With Kennedy and Byrd rarely in the Senate due to their illnesses, the Democrats would need to get 2 Republicans to side with them if they can get the other 58 Democrats to support the bill.  That is a big IF, and moving towards “not likely,” as the economy continues to struggle, the economic reality of the bill continues to sink in and global warming “science” is finding less and less support amongst voters.  In fact, Cap and Trade has lost so much momentum that even Democrat Senators are now saying that it won’t receive a hearing until next year….if at all.

Having Cap and Trade in limbo is good and bad.  It’s good because passage of the legislation would be disastrous for the US economy.  It’s bad because as one of Obama’s two major pieces of legislation, having it in danger of dying puts more pressure on the issue of health care reform.  As the only other major legislation, if health care reform fails it will relegate the man once held in messianic admiration to that of purveyor of just another mystic religion that serves no purpose other than to provide emotional highs with no ability to resolve anything.  It is this fear that has Obama personally engaged in the health care debate.

President Obama’s personal insertion to the middle of the health care debate is much like Kevin Bacon’s appearance towards the end of Animal House.  Standing in the middle of the melee and shouting “All is well.  All is well,” didn’t calm the public for Kevin nor will it for Obama.  In both instances the acts were those of desperation.  As it didn’t work for Bacon, neither will it for Obama.

With President Obama fighting to find new scapegoats to blame and allies for support, the path and outcome of the health care reform debate is far from certain.  That said, one thing is certain.  The next time you hear Obama, discussing any topic, say “This isn’t about me,” you will know without a doubt that after sifting through all of the obfuscation and half truths, the one thing in fact it is about is Obama!

August 14, 2009

Stuck-at-the-airport hot read – Ed Morrissey’s “Rights and Wrongs”

Yes, I missed the morning flight through piss-poor planning and preparation, which always results in piss-poor performance. However, that means I get to read Ed Morrissey’s latest column for American Issues Project, a historical look at why health care is not a “right”:

Rights cannot be confiscatory in a society that respects the individual right to property. That’s why none of the enumerated rights in the Constitution involve confiscation. Americans have the right to free speech, but they do not have the right to demand publication in a newspaper, nor do they have the right to demand that other people listen when they speak. The right to free expression of religion does not involve occupying someone else’s church and using it to your own ends. You have the right to keep and bear arms, but you do not have the right to demand free or publicly financed weaponry. All of those examples involve confiscating someone else’s property or services, whether done through the government or by force individually.

That brings us to the notion of the “right” to health care. As human beings, we want to see people succeed to the point where they can feed, clothe, and care for themselves independently, as that establishes true personal freedom. However, none of us have the right to confiscate the services of a doctor or nurse without their consent, and without their ability to set a price for their time and expertise. We don’t have the right to walk into a grocery story to demand apples when we’re hungry, either, although we should have access to the market without bias when we can properly compensate its owner for the goods.

I can’t put it any better.

If Thier Lips Are Moving, They’re Lying

by @ 5:30. Filed under Politics - National.

Is there anything that any Democrat says or does anymore that isn’t hypocritical, pacifying the peasants or a bald face lie?

A video montage for your enjoyment.

August 12, 2009

Like A Rock

by @ 12:37. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

After getting an earful of challenges on everything from health care to whether he was actually abiding by his oath to uphold the Constitution, Senator Arlen Specter had this insight:

“They (objectors at the town hall) may not be representative of America, but they are significant, and their views have to be taken into account.”

Respectfully Senator Specter, you need to get out of the echo chamber of Washington!

The latest Rasmussen poll shows that 53% of Americans are against the plan being offered by the Democrats while only 42% support the plan.  In addition, Rasmussen shows that 57% are opposed to a single payer plan with only 32% supporting one.

Senator Specter, not only are the concerns you are hearing “representative” of America, they represent the majority opinion of America.  In fact, according to Rasmussen and other polling agencies, the harder the Democrats push and the longer the public is told that they aren’t smart enough to know what’s best for them, the lower the support for any health care reform legislation goes.

In fact Senator Specter, it is you who is not representative of your constituents or Americans in general.  That said, there is something you have in common with the health care legislation.  The more voters hear about you or health care reform, the more they think you are a rock, as in “sinking like a……

August 11, 2009

Poof! You’re a Physician!

by @ 12:34. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

As more people read and analyze the health care reform act, more and more potential issues are being raised.  Funding for abortions, procedures approved based on the patient’s economic value and elimination of private health insurance are just a few of the issues raised.  Any one of these by themselves should be enough to cause people to say “whoa!”  In total they should be enough to have thinking folks recognize that this bill’s approach to health care reform should be thrown out completely.  As important as any of these, and many others that I haven’t listed are, there is one issue that has received very little attention but if understood completely, should bring this house of cards called reform, crashing down.

Three years ago Massachusetts implemented its version of health care reform.  The program in Massachusetts is the closest real life experiment of what is being proposed as the national version of health care reform.  The plan requires nearly everyone to have health insurance.  There are subsidies for those who can’t afford the insurance, penalties for companies that don’t provide insurance and the plan provides insurance to illegal aliens, all similar to the proposed national plan.

Massachusetts is a blessed state when it comes to health care professionals.  In a recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Massachusetts has the highest rate of non federal physicians per thousand of population.  In fact, at 5.3 physicians per 1,000 population, Massachusetts’ rate is 60% higher than the national average of 3.3 physicians per 1,000 population. 

One would think that with such a high physician to population rate, access to health care would be easy in Massachusetts.  One would think that with a rate significantly higher than the rest of the nation you should be able to pick up the phone and get a medical appointment with little if any delay.  You might think that but if you do, you would be wrong.

A recent survey by Merritt, Hawkins & Associates looked at the average length of time it takes to get an appointment with various physicians.  The study looked at waiting times for several specialties as well as family practice.  It looked at 15 major cities including Boston.  The study found that of the cities survey, Boston had the longest wait times for getting appointments with physicians.  Not only that, but Boston’s average wait time of 49.6 days was more than twice as long as the national average of 20.5 days.  If that doesn’t concern you, the average wait time for a family practice appointment for a routine physical was found to be 63 days in Boston.  If you’re still not concerned, the study found that with the exception of cardiology, the waiting times for all specialties that were surveyed in both 2004 and 2009 had increased, in some cases substantially.

What’s the point?  Massachusetts has always had a high ratio of physicians to patients.  Relative to national statistics, Massachusetts traditionally had a small number of uninsured individuals.  Prior to the implementation of their health care plan, Massachusetts was estimated to have 10% or fewer of its population uninsured compared to 15% – 16% nationally.  If Massachusetts with relatively fewer new insureds and significantly high physician to patient ratios can’t manage to manage access times after the implementation of unrestricted health care, what does that portend for health care consumers if a national plan is implemented?

According to Kaiser Family Foundation there are 46 million people without insurance.  You can see the breakdown by state here.  Let’s assume that we now insure every person in the country with a national plan.  Let’s assume that to maintain existing wait times we will need to maintain the average ratio of physicians to population.  As a proxy, let’s assume that for each 1,000 additional insured we will need to increase physicians by the current rate per 1,000 (this is actually a bit low if you work through the math because the divider should actually be the insured people versus total population but we’ll allow for a bit of breakage.)  If we extrapolate that number, how many additional physicians will we need?  The following chart shows by state, how many additional physicians we will need to maintain access times:

health care

To maintain the same level of physicians to insured, the country would need to have nearly 144K additional physicians on the day that the health reform act became operational. 144K is an increase of 15% in total physicians. According to the Department of Health and human services, at the projected level of medical school graduations the country won’t increase the number of physicians by 144K until well after 2020. Even if we increase medical school graduation rates by 20% we won’t achieve the 144K increase until after 2020.

More frightening than the total increase in physicians required is the instantaneous shortfall that several states will have if the national health plan is implemented. Take note of Texas which will need a 24% increase in physicians to stay even, New Mexico will need 22%, Mississippi and Florida will need 20% and Arizona will need a 19% increase.

In free market economics the result of dramatically increasing the demand of a product needs to be met with an equivalent increase in production or an increase in prices that will remove some demand for the product. In the case of national health care, demand will increase, prices will not be allowed to increase so how will this work? If production can’t be increased or prices adjusted, the only other way to balance the equation is to regulate the demand, this is called rationing.

Folks, the math on the number of physicians doesn’t work. There is no way to dramatically increase the number of insured into the system, restrict or reduce pricing and not have rationing. Well, there may be one way to do it. Grab your magic wand, waive it and say “Poof, you’re a physician!”

August 10, 2009

The Lady Doth Protest Too Much

During the Bush leadership of the Iraq war there was a constant debate about whether someone could disagree with the war but still support the troops.  Invariably, those who thought they were able to separate these issues, when challenged, would fall back on some version of wrapping themselves in the flag and claiming that they were being called Un-American for protesting. 

Of course we all remember how the Democrat’s responded to any notion that the Iraq protesters were Un-American.  Perhaps the most publicized response was from Hillary Clinton herself, who told us that in fact is was patriotic to protest and American President.

In today’s USAToday oped, Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer call those who are protesting the health reform bill “Un-American!”

In their oped, the two Democrat herders (they aren’t leaders by any sense of the definition) go on to say:

However, it is now evident that an ugly campaign is underway not merely to misrepresent the health insurance reform legislation, but to disrupt public meetings and prevent members of Congress and constituents from conducting a civil dialogue.

Interesting, it looks more to me like members of Congress who are not knowledgeable or are knowingly lying about the bill and members of Congress who are not willing to hear a dissenting voice from their constituents.

Next, Pelosi and Hoyer pick up the new meme of the left:

These disruptions are occurring because opponents are afraid not just of differing views — but of the facts themselves. Drowning out opposing views is simply un-American. Drowning out the facts is how we failed at this task for decades.

They then attempt to set the record straight on the “facts:”

The first fact is that health insurance reform will mean more patient choice. It will allow every American who likes his or her current plan to keep it. And it will free doctors and patients to make the health decisions that make the most sense, not the most profits for insurance companies.

Well, no it won’t.  As has been documented by numerous sources, your ability to “keep your plan” will end at the time that you change your job, lose your job or if any change occurs to your existing plan. 

Reform will mean stability and peace of mind for the middle class. Never again will medical bills drive Americans into bankruptcy; (it will just drive the entire country into bankruptcy) never again will Americans be in danger of losing coverage if they lose their jobs or if they become sick (at least until you get to a point where your future value to society isn’t greater than the cost of your treatment); never again will insurance companies be allowed to deny patients coverage because of pre-existing conditions (Yes, the all knowing government will now take that role.  Just try to appeal one of their decisions.).

Italics mine

Further:

Our plan’s cost-lowering measures include a public health insurance option to bring competitive pressure to bear on rapidly consolidating private insurers.

Um, nope.  The CBO says it won’t lower costs.  The state plan in Massachusetts, which is the most comparable existing government run plan to the one being proposed, has in fact increased costs at a rate higher than the national average.

Aside from their “let them eat cake” attitude, it’s hard to understand how Pelosi and Stoyer think their oped helps their cause.  With Obama’s poll numbers continuing to slide, Congress’ numbers hitting new lows, Pelosi polled as having the highest unfavorable rating of any Congressional leader and Rasmussen showing that a plurality of Americans support the protester’s efforts, the trend is clearly not their friend. 

Calling common, everyday people “Un-American” seems to be a hail Mary pass in an attempt to stop the public relations slide.  Given the credibility, or rather the lack of credibility that Pelosi and Hoyer have, I doubt it will help.  In fact, I suspect it may have the opposite effect as common sense Americans will view it in the words of the Bard:

The lady doth protest too much!

Oh, one more thing, you may want to consider reporting the oped piece to flag@whitehouse.gov as fishy, misinformation about the health reform act.  We want to make sure and keep the President informed!

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