No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics – National' Category

September 7, 2010

Tuesday Hot Read – Doug Ross’ “Obscure blogger compares Obama’s treatment of U.S. economy to a dog”

by @ 19:10. Filed under Politics - National.

Doug Ross is hardly an obscure blogger, but we’ll run with his Onion-worthy sendup of Obama’s “dog” comment here in Milwaukee yesterday:

“Some powerful special interests who have dominated the agenda in Washington since the thirties really hit the jackpot with the Obama administration,” Ross said, “This White House is treating the economy like a dog. It’s taught the economy to roll over and play dead, for instance.”

Ross isn’t known to stray off prepared remarks and also took a more aggressive tone in the speech.

I only wish I were well-known enough to be obscure; I would’ve live-blogged that. Of course, it wouldn’t have been as scintillating as Doug’s account.

August 19, 2010

What? Me Worry?

Alfred E. Neuman was and is smarter than Joe Biden!

Jobless claims at 9-month high

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 500,000 in the week ended August 14, the highest since mid-November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

From Biden – the Oracle of the Economy

I have to admit that I thought we were all being set up when at the end of April, Vice President Biden said:

Well, I’m here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.

I thought for sure that Biden was just giving us another chorus of happy talk from the administration. I didn’t see anyway, at least by looking out my economic window, that the economy was about to do anything regarding jobs, that would be at a level of nearly 500,000!

I was wrong! Vice President Biden was right!

Today, in another unexpected surprise, the Labor Department announced that new claims for unemployment insurance rose to 479,000! Admittedly, that’s not 500,000. However, I have to give VP Biden kudos for having the foresight to predict a number that appeared incredibly outlandish to us rubes on the sidelines. 500,000 would have been great but 479,000 is nothing to sneeze at! Great job Vice President Biden! It surely is “Recovery Summer!”

Uh, what?…He predicted 500,000 new jobs but we have nearly 500,000 new people collecting unemployment? Um….that’s not good!

Never mind!

I doubt Obama’s unpopularity will be improving anytime soon. In the event that any of the Libs are still wondering why the American people have become so “stupid” as to turn against the rainbows and unicorns in every pot…..It’s the economy, stupid!

August 17, 2010

Late-Tuesday Hot Read – WSJ’s “Uncle Sam, Venture Capitalist”

by @ 21:45. Filed under Business, Energy, Politics - National.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board did something that the local presstitutes didn’t do, and looked into the subject of the non-political “justification” for the first day of Obama’s campaign tour so his campaign, Tom Barrett’s campaign, and the DPW didn’t have to pay for the trip, 30-employee ZBB Energy. They’re not-exactly financially viable:

We wonder who in government looked at ZBB’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Since going public in June of 2007, ZBB has been hemorrhaging money. The firm lost $4.9 million in fiscal 2008 and $5.5 million in fiscal 2009. In its most recent filing, in May, it said it had lost $6.9 million for the first nine months of its current fiscal year. It explained it had a “cumulative deficit” of $44.1 million and informed shareholders that it “anticipates incurring continuing losses.” It acknowledged that its ability to continue as a “going concern” was predicated on its ability to drum up additional funds.

In March the company engaged in various stock transactions—including a private placement to the company’s directors—to raise some $1.9 million. It obtained a $1.3 million loan from the federal stimulus program and borrowed $1.5 million more from Investors Bank. In June it announced a debt agreement, which would allow it to tap a further $10 million….

The company also acknowledged in its May filing that the 72,000 square foot manufacturing facility it bought in 2006 is “currently producing at less than 10% of its expected capacity.” That means it can’t currently access the $14 million in federal tax credits, which were supposed to help with equipment for a new facility. Meanwhile, private investors have soured on some energy-storage companies. ZBB’s initial public offering was priced at $6 a share in 2007, and it closed yesterday at 70 cents. (Note – it closed today at 66 cents)

ZBB’s chief financial officer, Scott Scampini, acknowledges the losses and tells us that one problem was that the old management thought “people would just jump and buy this stuff.” New management, he says, now has a “real business plan” to become cash-flow positive in “short order”—by becoming cheap enough to be “competitive with fossil fuels.”

I hate to break the bad news, but the two methods of producing energy that are dependent on batteries aren’t going to be competitive on a cost basis anytime soon (at least unless all the conventional methods of producing energy are made prohibitively-expensive) – solar is at least twice as costly as conventional power, and at least in Wisconsin, wind farms is going to become even more expensive than the 50% premium as the Public Service Commission is expected to require compensation to nearby landowners.

WISN-AM’s Mark Belling spent much of the first hour of today’s show on this, including taking a rather testy phone call from ZBB CEO Eric Apfelbach (starting at about the 5:40 mark in Hour 1 Part 2 of today’s podcast). Belling got Apfelbach to admit the Porkulus loan (of which $490,000 was already tapped) didn’t create a single new job despite the anticipation that it would create 175 jobs, and that he is a Crony “Capitalist” who is more than happy to suckle off the teat of government.

August 11, 2010

I’ll Call Ya Harry and Raise Ya Three!

by @ 7:31. Filed under Politics - National.

Anyone doubting that the Democrats are feeling a lot of pressure, isn’t paying much attention.  The gaffes are coming so fast and furious that even Joe Biden has to be wincing once in a while!  The “latest” (and I use that term VERY loosely at the rate they are coming)gaffe is from Harry Reid.

Apparently, Harry and President Obama have now completely separated their strategies.  While President Obama has been running as the racial healer (cough, cough) Harry is now running as the ratial slash and burn candidate:

Yup, Harry is now determing how you will vote based upon your ethinc heritage!

Well Harry, if we’re going to start throwing down the racist gauntlet, let’s throw it down!

If Charlie Rangel were a white Republican, no one would bother to investigate him!

Ditto for Maxine Waters!

Finally, I want an investigation of the 2008 election. There is no possible way that Barack Obama received the number of votes that were tabulated for him because we all know that it is categorically impossible for any sane, white individual to vote for a black President.

Cmon Harry, your turn to say more stupid stuff!

August 8, 2010

America’s Economy Continues to be Held Hostage

From the Financial Times:

Fed set to downgrade outlook for US

This sounds awful pessimistic for it to be included in Recovery Summer!

Faced with weak economic data and rising fears of a double-dip recession, the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to ensure its policy is not constraining growth and to use its statement to signal greater concern about the economy. It is, however, unlikely to agree big new steps to boost growth.

Do you think there is any coincidence between the Fed’s view of a deteriorating view and Christina Romer’s exit this week?  Maybe Romer finally got tired of carrying the fouled bucket of water that is Obama’s economic policy.

It’s a Small World After All!

The Shoebox’s are huge Disney fans.  Old or new, we love all Disney movies.  DisneyWorld?  We’ve been there at least once a year since the Things were about 5 and some years we clocked as many as 4 trips. 

We’ve been to DisneyWorld enough times that the heat and long lines, if there are any, don’t bother us.  We have our favorite attractions and know how to use Fastpass, extra magic hours and the other Disney mechanisms to manage lines, to our fullest advantage.  One attraction that hardly ever has a line is It’s a Small World.

For those of you who have been on this ride, bear with me while I bring the others up to speed.  It’s a Small World is a boat ride through various scenes of puppets dressed as children from countries around the world.  The attraction, originally built for the 1964 World’s Fair, may have been entertaining at the time but today, is nothing short of boring.  Along with the dated animation of the kitchy puppets, is the song that plays over and over and over again, just with different languages.  By the end of the ride, most people are considering diving out of the boat and swimming to the end of the ride.

Thing 1 and Thing 2 particularly despise It’s a Small World.  For this reason, Mrs. Shoe and I make sure that we ride it on each trip.  we usually set it up so that we “have” to do It’s a Small World before the Things get to do something they are really yearning to do.

But, I digress. This post has nothing to do with Disney.

In the same week that President Obama’s favorability rating as an average across all major polls, drops below 50% in the US, it is announced that Arabs have an even lower opinion of the President than his US constituents.

According to a recently released Brookings public opinion poll, 63% of Arabs labeled their attitude as “discouraged” by the Obama administration. In contrast, only 16% were “hopeful”. While those numbers alone are remarkeable given that the meme of the Obama phenomena was that the world would love the US if only Obama were kingPresident, what’s more amazing is how quickly the perception of Obama has changed. Just last year, the poll was nearly the exact opposite with 51% of Arabs saying they were optomistic and only 15% discouraged.

It’s hard to believe that only two short years ago the Left was decrying President Bush over his poor popularity amongst Arabs. At the time, only 15% of Arabs had a favorable view of the United States. Today, only 12% of Arabs have a favorable view of the United States and there isn’t a peep of concern about Barack Obama is impacting the position of the US in the world.

Most people would agree that the issues of the Middle East are very distant from those challenging the US. That said, when it comes to optimism in the Obama administration, it is a Small World After All!

August 5, 2010

Biden the Oracle of the Economy

I have to admit that I thought we were all being set up when at the end of April, Vice President Biden said:

Well, I’m here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.

I thought for sure that Biden was just giving us another chorus of happy talk from the administration. I didn’t see anyway, at least by looking out my economic window, that the economy was about to do anything regarding jobs, that would be at a level of nearly 500,000!

I was wrong! Vice President Biden was right!

Today, in another unexpected surprise, the Labor Department announced that new claims for unemployment insurance rose to 479,000! Admittedly, that’s not 500,000. However, I have to give VP Biden kudos for having the foresight to predict a number that appeared incredibly outlandish to us rubes on the sidelines. 500,000 would have been great but 479,000 is nothing to sneeze at! Great job Vice President Biden! It surely is “Recovery Summer!”

Uh, what?…He predicted 500,000 new jobs but we have nearly 500,000 new people collecting unemployment? Um….that’s not good!

Never mind!

Profound Animosity

It’s now been almost four full years that Barack Obama has been running for office against George Bush.  Yes, some of us (almost all on the right) know that George Bush hasn’t been on the political scene, let alone been President, for 18 months.  None the less, President Obama (isn’t that odd how he carries the title “President” but still doesn’t know that George Bush isn’t?) continues to campaign against George Bush.

During his campaign stop on Wednesday with the AFL-CIO Executive Council, he pledged his commitment to rebuild the economy (I wonder if VP Biden knows this as he’s already told us we’ll have 500,000 new jobs each month and that this is “Recovery Summer”), that he was not  “giving up or giving in” and he was going to change the direction from:

at least eight years in which there was a profound animosity towards the notion of unions.

Well, if “profound animosity towards the notion of unions” is what kept our unemployment rate under 5%, a GDP that was the envy of the world, the ability if not to shrink the deficit, at least keep up with the ridiculous Washington spending, then I’d have to say, “bring it on!”

Instead of “profound animosity towards the notion of unions,” President Obama has shown himself to have profound animosity towards all forms of employment or enterprise that do not include unions.  When it came to the union shops i.e. GM, Chrysler et al, President obama rushed into the burning buildings to save his constituents.  In every other effort regarding the economy, you can determine President Obama’s position in advance by determining what would be the best solution in a free market, and take the opposite!

Even if it was proved true that George Bush had “profound animosity towards the notion of unions,” I would take that back in a hearbeat over the profound animosity that President Obama has shown towards the 87.7% of us workers who can manage employment without paying a monthly allotment towards protection money.

August 2, 2010

Kids Say The Darndest Things

There are some advantages to growing older.  The most obvious is that when you consider the alternative, getting another year older, at any age, isn’t so bad.  Another is that you get to look back and remember fondly, some of your youthful experiences.

One experience that I remember is watching Art Linkletter do his “Kids say the darndest things” bit.  If you aren’t old enough, and haven’t seen one of the clips, Art Linkletter would get any number of kids together, all of whom were typically under the age of 10, and ask them questions.  Time and again, the answers the kids gave would leave the watchers in stitches.  The kid’s answers were innocent and top of mind.  While factual, they usually had a naive or certainly unnuanced view of the world.  Look at the following clip to get a sense of the fun that Linkletter had…all without paid actors:

The reason I bring Linkletter up is that I saw another video today in which a person was asked a question and the response left me in stitches. Like Linkletter’s kids, this respondent answered innocently with what was top of mind. In other words, the person answered honestly and without the bother of real world nuance. Here, watch the video and see if you don’t agree:

I’m glad we have free political speech in this country…at least for now. With free speech we get to see Pete Stark and people like him, lay out in simple, plain English, their contempt for the Constitution and for those who believe it actually has a purpose. He also lays out in plain English, why he and his ilk should be removed from office and offered a relocation package to the People’s Paradise of Cuba.

August 1, 2010

From the “high road” to the Slimeroad

During a visit to his Hudson campaign office last week, Sen. Russ Feingold (or perhaps I should go back to using Slimeroad) uttered the following in the presence of a Hudson Star-Observer reporter:

Johnson, he said, talks “like public employees are evil.”

“When his house is burning down he doesn’t consider a public employee evil. We saved the jobs of firefighters. When somebody robs one of his kids and they call the police he doesn’t think a public employee is evil. We saved the jobs of many police in this state.”

What, exactly, does Feingold mean by “when”? To the best of my knowledge, Ron Johnson’s house hasn’t been burned down and his kids haven’t been robbed. Is Feingold inviting some of his more-“enthusiastic” supporters to target Johnson for criminal activity?

Back in 1992, Feingold actually took the high road. In 1998, that became a hollow claim as many “independent” supporters of Feingold went straight into the gutter against Mark Neumann. Now, Feingold isn’t even pretending that he isn’t throwing the slime.

July 29, 2010

Another Tax Man stinker – 2008 edition

by @ 20:31. Filed under Economy, Politics - National, Taxes.

(H/T – Charlie Sykes)

In his discussion of the requirement of every small business to report to the IRS every payment of at least $600 in the aggregate (discussed here earlier this year), David Frum found a real gem of a form – Form 1099-K (draft version). While that is not the form he is thinking of, one of his readers remembered what that form is for. It seems a credit/third-party network transactions reporting requirement was slipped into the “Housing Assistance Tax Act of 2008” by Harry Reid and his fellow Senate Democrats, and it is a doozy, and the IRS made it an even bigger doozy in its proposed implementing regulations.

To cut to the quick; all payment-card payments (on cards issued by an entity unrelated to the entity accepting final payment) and all third-party network transactions that exceed $20,000 and 200 transactions to a particular payee in a year from said network (not from an individual account holder, but from every account holder) must be reported on an aggregated monthly basis, and a separate 1099-K must be filed for each determinable cardholder/account owner.

Are you going to use that Chase MasterCard to buy a $800 computer from Best Buy in March 2011? Are you going to use your debit card to buy a $8 meal from Culver’s in April 2011? Are you going to use PayPal to buy a $500 airline ticket from AirTran in June 2011? Will you be passing through a tollbooth using EZ-Pass in January 2011? Will you be using a WMATA SmarTrip card on a DASH bus in February 2011? Will you be making a phone call using a prepaid phone card in September 2011? If so, the IRS will find out about it.

But wait; it gets “better”. If you accept a payment-card or third-party network transaction, you better tell that card or payment company your correct Taxpayer ID Number if you don’t want them to withhold federal taxes on the payments due you.

I suppose there is one little bit of good news. If those proposed IRS regulations I linked to go through without changes, those of you with businesses just might have a little less paperwork to deal with. If all of your payments to a particular vendor are made with a business credit card, you won’t have to report those payments because your credit card company will take care of that for you.

July 27, 2010

Unconstitutionally dismantling the Electoral College – Massachusetts edition

by @ 22:49. Filed under Politics - National.

(H/T – DaTechguy)

Massachusetts is the latest state to sign away its independence in the selection and action of its Electoral College, and Massachusetts resident DaTechguy is spitting mad. I refer the reader back to some Classic NRE, for both the non-partisan and partisan versions of why this is not a good idea, and amplify the Constitutional point a bit.

The folks pushing for this note that there are any number of “compacts” that don’t explicitly have Congressional approval. However, the main case they cite in defense of not needing Congressional approval, Commonwealth of Virginia v. State of Tennessee (1893), actually makes the case that Congressional approval of the compact is proscribed by the Constitution. By its very nature, that effort is a pact of “political co-operation” designed to affect the influence of the states that are a part of the effort on the selection of the President.

Government Motors earning its TARP keep

by @ 18:41. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Van Helsing)

If you thought the Chevy Volt was a bad deal, wait until you get a load of this. I present the lede from Bloomberg’s story on Government Motors buying subprime lender AmeriCredit Corp. for $3.5 billion:

General Motors Co., the automaker 61 percent owned by the U.S., is buying subprime lender AmeriCredit Corp. for $3.5 billion to help it reach more customers with leases and loans to borrowers with faulty credit records.

A couple points of order:

  • Where, exactly, did Government Motors get the $3,500,000,000 to pay a 24% premium for a company?
  • Isn’t the bubble of the subprime lending market, something Government Motors explicitly said it would restart, a major contributor to the Double-Dip Dempression we’re in?

Quoting American Enterprise Institute’s John Berlau, “When we bailed out GM, what were we bailing out? The rationale behind the financial-regulatory bill that just passed was that subprime lending was bad, but the government’s in the subprime business.”

July 26, 2010

Monday Hot Read: WSJ’s “Survival of the Fattest”

by @ 16:18. Filed under Corn-a-hole, Politics - National.

Yes, this one is behind the NewsCorp pay wall, but it is worth either getting the online subscription or grabbing a copy of today’s Wall Street Journal (I’ve done the latter) to read this editorial on corn-a-hole, based on the Congressional Budget Office report on subsidies for biofuels. Both the report and the editorial are devastating, and since I want to include the WSJ’s close, I’ll start with the CBO’s numbers, and expand beyond the corn-based ethanol the WSJ focused on because the rest is even more devastating:

  • The producers of corn-based ethanol get $0.73 per “gallon of gasoline-equivalent” of taxpayer subsidy, producers of cellulosic ethanol get $1.62 per “gallon of gasoline-equivalent” of taxpayer subsidy, and producers of biodiesel get $1.08 per “gallon of diesel-equivalent” of taxpayer subsidy.
  • Those direct subsidies are not the only costs taxpayers bear. Figuring the difference in taxes between traditional fuels and biofuels, as well as the difference between the amount of biofuels produced because of the subsidies and the amount that would be produced without the subsidies, it costs taxpayers $1.78 to replace a gallon of gasoline with corn-based ethanol (or 63.8% of the average cost of gas in Milwaukee as of today), $3.00 to replace a gallon of gasoline with cellulosic ethanol (or 107.5% of the average cost of gas in Milwaukee), and $2.55 to replace a gallon of diesel with biodiesel (or 86.1% of the average cost of diesel in Milwaukee).
  • Not counting the the effects of the conversion of land to biodiesel production, the costs of carbon dioxide reduction are far greater than the $26 per metric ton tax the House passed as part of its cap-and-tax proposal: roughly $750 per ton for corn-based ethanol, $275 per ton for cellulosic ethanol and $300 per ton for biodiesel.

I can’t write a close that’s better than the one the WSJ editorial writers did, so I’ll borrow their close (emphasis in the original):

Given these realities, the only mystery is how an industry that produces a fuel that no one would willingly buy has managed to be subsidized over four decades at costs that are higher than anyone ever imagined. But then, maybe it merely illustrates the theory of the politically fittest.

July 24, 2010

The most laughable guest opinion that has run so far this year in the MJS appears in Sunday’s paper

See it here now.

Absolute garbage.

AP: Unemployment unchanged by stimulus

Economists: The stimulus didn’t help

100 stimulus projects: A second opinion

Feds to spend $795,000 to create 5,000 rural jobs

July 20, 2010

Killing Two Birds With One Stone

by @ 21:34. Filed under Global "Warming", Politics - National.

We all know about President Obama’s concern regarding global warming.  We all know he blames whatever warming he alledges on the use of fossil fuels.  To put his money where his mouth is, so to speak, President Obama has told federal workers to cut down on their travel and commuting by car:

In a statement, Obama noted that the government is the biggest energy user. “The government has a responsibility to use that energy wisely, to reduce consumption, improve efficiency, use renewable energy, like wind and solar, and cut costs,” he said.

By doing this, President Obama has set a goal of reducing greenhouse emissions by 13% a reduction by 2020.

President Obama for once, is practicing what he preaches and I applaud him.  In January, 2009 when President Obama took office, there were approximately 2.772 million federal government employees.  As of June, 2010 the Bureau of Labor Statistics says there are now 3.227 million federal government employees, an increase of over 16%!  I suggest that rather than chide employees to drive less, President Obama simply reduce the federal employee employment level back to 2008. By doing so he would not only reduce the greenhouse gasses, perhaps as much as 16%, but also reduce the budget deficit…another goal that President Obama tells us is important to him, and you know how fervent he is in achieving his goals.

Go ahead President Obama, use my idea, I won’t even charge you for my consulting time!

July 19, 2010

Government/UAW Motors and closed dealerships – an alternate take

by @ 15:53. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Most of my friends are seizing on the wrong aspect of the report on Government/UAW Motors’ closing of dealerships from TARP’s Special Inspector General. Private (or putatively private) enterprise, especially one in such bad financial shape that it is in bankruptcy, does not have a responsibility to be an employment-for-all agency. Indeed, government has neither the responsibility nor the authority to be an employment-for-all agency.

Rather, it’s the processes used by Government Motors and UAW Motors to shut down certain dealers, and the acceleration of the shutdowns ordered by the Obama administration’s Auto Team, that bear scrutiny. The report noted that the Auto Team ignored advice given by both the companies and outside experts that a rapid shutdown to match foreign car companies’ models might not be appropriate, “particularly in small markets in which the U.S. companies currently have a competitive advantage.” Indeed, both Chrysler execs and at least one outside expert told the Auto Team that shutting down dealers in the middle of a recession could hurt sales even worse and in such a way that it would take years to recover.

The report also noted that in the wake of legislated arbitration applying to both Government Motors and UAW Motors, a senior GM official stated that the final number of dealerships wouldn’t affect the recovery of GM. Taken together with the 216 GM dealerships restored (out of 1,454 cut) and 50 UAW Motors dealerships restored (out of 789 cut), the report “suggests, at the very least, that the number and speed of the terminations was not necessarily critical to the manufacturers’ viability.” At the same point, the report notes Ford Motor Company is closing dealerships at the rate GM had wanted to in its Treasury-rejected February 2009 restructuring plan.

Along the same lines, the report states that the lead advisors for the Auto Team, Ron Bloom and Steven Rattner, did not consider cost savings to be a factor in determining the need for dealership closures. You heard right – there was no business case made by the Auto Team to close the dealerships that were closed. Indeed, it was only after Congress demanded a cost-savings analysis that GM ginned one up out of whole cloth.

While UAW Motors appeared to follow its set of guidelines, the report noted that those guidelines included subjective elements such as choosing which dealers get to add product lines they previously did not carry and whether the market served was a “desirable” one as part of an implementation of Project Genesis (a pre-bankruptcy plan to have every Chrysler Group dealership carry every Chrysler Group brand). In at least one unnamed market, subjectivity cost the top-performing Jeep dealership its franchise in favor of a slightly-lower-performing Dodge dealership in the same market, with only the explanation that UAW Motors wanted the Dodge dealership and a pair of poorer-performing Chrysler/Dodge dealerships, to sell Jeeps.

Further, UAW Motors didn’t include an appeals process for those dealers axed. The stated reason was they wanted to be rid of those 789 dealers by the time they exited bankruptcy.

As for Government Motors, while the purported criteria for selecting their wound-down dealerships were all objective, the report noted that undeterminable factors outside those measures were used to wind down dealerships, including at least two dealerships who otherwise would not have been wound down. GM did not document why some dealers that met wind-down criteria were wound down while others were not, nor did they have complete criteria data for 308 of their then-5,591 dealerships.

While GM did have an appeals process for dealerships selected to be wound down, it was a criteria-free process. GM did not provide guidance for the data dealerships were to submit as part of their appeal, did not establish criteria for the review of the appeal, and did not document the reasonings behind the decisions to either grant or deny the appeal.

All in all, the report leaves the possibility that the closure of dealerships was, at least partially, driven by politics and especially the donation records of the principals of the dealerships, wide open.

July 16, 2010

Friday Hot Read – Jeff Dunetz’ “We Have The “F” Word And The “N” Word. What About The Other Letters?”

by @ 9:08. Filed under Politics - National.

Jeff Dunetz lists the words that can now only be described by letter. I’ll give you a couple just to encourage you to drop in on his place (which is also why I disabled comments, which I usually only do when I “borrow” 4-Blocks from Tom McMahon):

  • “E” Word- Earnings, things that big businesses are no longer allowed to have
  • “H” Word- Hussein, (you know who’s middle name) as in the Israelis hate me because of my middle name
  • “O” Word- Oil, We bad Americans must be weaned of the stuff

Head on over to Jeff’s place for the other 23.

July 15, 2010

The mo’ is with Johnson

Rasmussen Reports has upped their polling tempo ahead of the election, and the news is very good for Ron Johnson. In a poll taken July 13 of 750 likely voters, he has pulled ahead of Russ Feingold for the first time, 47%-46%. That compares favorably to a Rasmussen late-June poll that had Feingold up 46%-45%, and a Public Policy late-June poll that had Feingold up 45%-43%. The Slimeroad Slime Machine still isn’t working, as Johnson’s favorables climbed to 51% favorable (up 19 points from June)/30% unfavorable (up 5 points from June)/+11 “Passion” Index (up 2 points from June).

The toplines are, once again, more favorable to the Democrats than the national picture. Once again, President Obama’s Wisconsin approval ratings (49% approve/51% disapprove/-14 Approval Index) are better than the national numbers (48% approve/52% disapprove/-17 Approval Index). Various other questions, from Gulf drilling to PlaceboCare, from illegal immigration to the Tea Party Movement, reveal a slightly more leftward tilt (or more properly, a lesser rightward tilt) in Wisconsin than nationally. Feingold also improved his favorables to 53% favorable (up 1 point from June)/43% unfavorable (down 2 points from June)/+5 “Passion” Index (up 5 points from June).

The news isn’t nearly as good for Dave Westlake. A couple weeks after getting to within 6 points of Feingold, Westlake now trails 51%-37%. Despite being in the race for well over a year, he is still so unknown 31% of those surveyed could not form an opinion on him, and only 13% had a strong opinion. While his overall favorability improved to 36% favorable (up 2 points from June)/31% unfavorable (unchanged from June), his “Passion” Index dropped another point to -5.

Revisions/extensions (1:39 pm 7/15/2010) – Just for grins, I decided to see if I could see whether the polls back in 1998 indicated that Mark Neumann was as close as his 2-point loss. CNN came through, and the closest Neumann was that year was a late-October Market Shares/WTMJ-TV poll that had him down 3 points. Two other contemporary polls had Feingold up 7 points, and polls earlier showed larger leads for Feingold.

That means this race is the closest for Feingold since he pulled off the upset in 1992.

July 13, 2010

Speaking of SocSecurity, the preliminary June 2010 update

The Treasury released its June 2010 Monthly Treasury Statement, and things just keep on getting worse for Social Security. Do bear in mind these numbers are still preliminary because the Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary hasn’t finalized them yet, but let’s run with them.

Overall

I really should not do the combined numbers anymore because the two “trust funds” are separate entities, but since everybody else still does them, I’ll briefly touch on it. They took in a total of $56,808 million in taxes, received $59,072 million in “interest” (because this is one of the two times interest is credited to the entire holdings), and paid out $63,308 in expenses. That left a gross increase in assets of $52,572 million (45.37% of total revene) and a primary (cash) decease in assets of $6,500 million (-11.44% of tax revenue). The 12-month gross surplus was $90,183 million, while the 12-month primary deficit was $28,260 million.

DI “Trust Fund”

The Disability Insurance “Trust Fund” had $8,249 million in taxes, $4,706 million in interest, and $11,018 million of outgo. That netted a monthly overall surplus of $1,778 million (worst June since 1994) or 14.95% of total revenue (also the worst June since 1994), and a monthly primary deficit of $2,769 million (5th-worst month, outside the “double-payment” month of August 1990, since monthly recurds were kept starting in 1987) or -33.57% of tax revenue (9th-worst “not-screwy” month since monthly records were kept).

The 12-month overall deficit was $18,725 million (worst since monthly records were kept) or -17.68% of total revenue (also worst since monthly records were kept). That meant that the “trust fund” lost 8.78% of its value over the past 12 months.

The 12-month primary deficit was $28,708 million (worst since monthly records were kept) or -29.93% of tax revenue (also worst since monthly records were kept). Put another way, tax revenues only covered just under 77% of the costs of the DI program.

OASI “Trust Fund”

The Old-Age and Survivors “Trust Fund” had $50,635 $48,559 million in taxes, $54,366 million in interest, and $52,290 million of outgo. That netted a monthly overall surplus of $54,366 million (worst June since 1994) or 49.20% of total revenue (worst June since 1999, prior to the latest realignment of the FICA/SECA taxes between the two “trust funds”), and a monthly primary deficit of $3,731 million (4th-worst month, outside the “double-payment” month of August 1990 and the transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund” in November 1994, since monthly records were kept) or -7.68% of tax revenue (7th-worst “non-screwy” month since monthly records were kept).

The 12-month overall surplus was $108,910 million (worst since 9/1998-8/1999) or 15.93% of total revenue (worst since 5/1996-4/1997). Of note, the earlier dates were when less of the FICA/SECA tax was being directed to the OASI “Trust Fund” than currently.

The 12-month primary surplus was $375 million (worst outside the effects of the November 1994 transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund”) or 0.07% of tax revenues (again the worst outside the effects of the November 1994 transfer of revenues to the DI “Trust Fund”). Of note, the two worse 12-month periods for the OASI saw a change of +$112 million (+0.04% of tax revenue) between 10/1994 and 9/1995 and -$825 million (-0.28% of tax revenue) between 11/1994 and 10/1995 due to that transfer to save the DI “Trust Fund”.

Tax revenues keep on sliding

The conditions of the “Trust Funds” are bad enough. However, that’s not the worst of the immediate news. Based on what the taxes taken in for the purposes of Social Security (FICA, SECA, and taxation of benefits) had been for the first 5 months of this year compared to the first 5 months of last year, Social Security tax revenues should have been around $58,540 million, or about 4.63% lower than the $61,383 million collected in June 2009. Instead, only $56,808 million came in to Social Security’s coffers in June 2010, a 7.45% drop from June 2009. That also was an overestimation of 2.96% on my part.

On the bright side, the outgo of $63,308 million was slightly less than my estimate of $63,984 million. I missed it by a mere 1.06%.

Revisions/extensions (6:36 pm 7/13/2010) – Corrected the characterization of the 12-month OASI primary change. It’s not until this month that it will go into the red. Also, added the “Economy Held Hostage” category that Shoebox started up earlier today.

R&E part 2 (8:18 pm 7/14/2010) – I somehow listed my spreadsheet estimate of taxes taken into the OASI fund instead of the Treasury figures. Sorry about that.

Economy Held Hostage – More Evidence

The hits, they just keep a coming….

and finally….

The White house is trying to ease tensions with business.  While I’m not in the habit of providing my consultations for free, I will make this one exception.  President Obama, the solution is easy.  Businesses of all sizes want you to get off their backs and quit making up new regulations by the minute.  If you abide by those 2 simple rules, they’ll be OK.

Tuesday Hot Read – Peter Ferrera’s “Are Overdue Reports Concealing ObamaCare Impact On Medicare?”

by @ 13:54. Filed under Social Security crater.

(H/T – Tom Blumer)

Last week, Peter Ferrera wondered in an Investor’s Business Daily op-ed where the already-late Social Security/Medicare Trustees’ Report is. As of a few minutes ago, it’s still not available.

Ferrera hits a multitude of topics, one of which I’ll focus on here:

The administration is trying to delay the report until mid-August, when it’s hoping the country will be on vacation and won’t notice. Or maybe the delay is because the White House is trying to bludgeon the chief actuaries for Medicare and Social Security into fudging the numbers.

Those chief actuaries are dedicated, career professionals who have worked their way up the bureaucracy over decades.

During the Reagan administration, the congressional Democrat majorities and the New York Times made clear to us that tampering with the work of the government’s career professionals, let alone the career number crunchers, would be grounds for impeachment.

I’m not certain the rule of law applies to this administration, where the Justice Department cites “payback time” as its reason for not prosecuting Black Panther Voting Rights Act violations.

Point of order – while the report is done by the career actuaries, they’re signed by the political masters, five of whom are hand-picked by Obama (the Secretaries of Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services, and two Public Trustees, whose positions were vacant as of last year). I’m not taking bets on which scenario is actually happening because an objective view of either program, especially Social Security, would show that things are a lot worse than they thought just last year.

Take one down, ship to the Congo…

by @ 10:31. Filed under Energy, Politics - National.

The re-issuance of the “temporary” moratorium on deepwater drilling has forced Diamond Offshore to send a second rig packing, this time to the Congo. Unlike the Ocean Endeavor, which likely will never be back in the Gulf of Mexico, the Ocean Confidence might be back after 3 years in the Congo for a year, but only if the ban on deepwater drilling is lifted.

WISN-AM’s Jay Weber said on his show this morning that he believes that ban will never be lifted while Teh Won is in office. The fact that the Ocean Confidence will be gone for a minimum of 3 years shows Diamond Offshore believes the same.

Give us freedom in our health care, says…

by @ 10:05. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

(H/T – Breitbart via Michelle Moore)

…Great Britain.

It truly is amazing how as we descend to what the British have suffered through, they’re looking for ways to climb out of that hole.

July 12, 2010

American Economy Held Hostage

by @ 14:32. Filed under Economy, Miscellaneous, Politics - National.

On June 17th, Vice President Biden kicked off “Recovery Summer.”  If you missed it, Recovery Summer was designed to be a celebration of the massive surge of jobs that was to result from the implementation of the various stimulus projects.

Vice President Biden was the perfect mascot talking head for Recovery Summer in that just 2 months prior, he was touting how the Obama rejuvenated economy was soon to be generating 500,000 jobs a month.

So, how’s that recovery going for us? In just the past week we’ve seen:

  • June employment numbers that are worse than any sub retirement age individual has seen during their working life.
  • The Canadian dollar closing in on parity with the US dollar because the Canadians, a country of just 34 million people and an economy of just 1/10th of the US, generated 93,000 net jobs in June while the US economy could only generate 83,000 private sector jobs.
  • Even though the US Government was denied a reinstatement of their gulf drilling moratorium, the risk for drillers is so high that the moratorium is, for all practical purposes, in effect.  The first big drilling rig has left the gulf heading for more sure work in Egypt.

Not yet recognizing the impact of his agenda and choices on the US Economy, President Obama is rumored to be pushing Congress to pass both Cap and Tax and card check during what will surely be a lame duck session for the Democrats. While the negative impact of card check would be harder for most Americans to discern, Cap and Tax, by the administration’s own admission, would increase the costs for the average family by over $1,700 each year.

If it wasn’t clear before, there is no longer any doubt that the happy talk from the Obama administration about “job creation” and “an economic recovery” are just that, happy talk. It’s now clear that the American economy is being held hostage by the Obama administration and won’t be released until Obama has accomplished the redistribution of wealth that the far left has only managed wet dreams about since the days of FDR.

Note the new counter on the home page. We’ll be incrementing until the month that 500,000 net, private sector jobs are generated. Until then, we’ll be counting the days of the American Economy Held Hostage!

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