No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for the 'Politics' Category

August 23, 2009

The polls are all wee-wee’d up

by @ 11:23. Filed under Politics - National.

I wonder if this is what President Obama had in mind when he lapsed into baby talk on Friday – The Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index hits a new low of -14. The dirty details on the first full day’s worth of polling after the wee-wee leakage (which also includes Thursday and Friday):

– Only 27% of all respondents strongly approve of Obama’s job performance, which is a new low.
– He’s starting to lose the Dems; less than half (49%) strongly approve.
– 41% of all respondents strongly disapprove, which ties the high.
– The slippage of independents continues; 49% strongly disapprove.

Unfortunately for himself, his party, and his country, Obama has called for the dynamite to blast through rock bottom. I just hope he remembers to chant, “Fire in the hole!” three times before detonation.

Revisions/extensions (11:40 am 8/23/2009) – (H/T – Michelle Malkin) Speaking of craters, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports on a Mason-Dixon poll that shows Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid losing to either Danny Tarkanian or Sue Lowden in a potential 2010 matchup. If Reid gets knocked out, he will be the second sitting Senate Democratic leader to lose in 6 years. Time to Daschle his dreams.

August 22, 2009

This Little POTUS Poem

Obama Market

Obama Oval
obama iceObama none girlObama lied

August 21, 2009

Friday Hot Read part drei – MadisonConservative’s “A game of Monopoly – Health Care edition”

by @ 16:24. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

Back in the day, I played a real cut-throat Monopoly. However, I wasn’t nearly as cut-throat as the federal government. I’ll let MadisonConservative explain:

Now, let’s say I’m playing with four other people. The four other people are normal monopoly players, playing by the normal rules. They represent private insurance companies. Now, I’m going to join the game. However, I get a different set of rules because I say so. I represent the public option.

First, in normal Monopoly rules, everyone collects $200 from the bank when they pass GO. Let’s refer to this as the capital that insurance companies get in order to run their business. They get it from revenues earned by competing in the health insurance market. However, for me, the rule is different. When I pass go, instead of getting $200 from the bank(customers), I instead collect $50 from each of the other players. Why? Well, the government gets its revenues by collecting taxes, not by providing competitive services. So, while the other players are collecting their money from passing GO from customers, I’m collecting my money from them. Their wealth is going down, directly leading to mine going up. Already, I have an advantage, because I’m the government. Guess what, though? Not only do I collect $50 from each of the other players every time I pass go, but I get $100 from the bank! See, the government doesn’t only collect taxes from businesses, but they also collect it from their customers! Once again, I have an advantage, because I’m the government.

Of course, there is more over at the HotAir Greenroom, so enjoy it. Do also read the comments.

How Did This Guy Get Through Harvard?

by @ 11:06. Filed under Obama worship, Politics - National.

Mortgage modification program – Fail!

Stimulus Program – Fail!

Cash for Clunkers – Fail!

Cap and Trade – Fail!

Fiscal Year Budget – Fail!

Foreign Policy – FailFail!

Is there anything that Obama has done that has worked or inspired the Country?  Apparently not!

This is Not a Question That We Think About

On a conference call on Wednesday, President Obama took on the “myth” that the House bill contained death panels saying:

Let me give you just one example, this notion that somehow we are setting up death panels that would decide whether elderly people would live or die. That is just an extraordinary lie.

(emphasis mine)

There is no such thing as a death panel, at least that’s what those who refuse to read the plain language and implication of HR 3200 will tell you.  No, the provisions that mandate end of life counseling are just one of the ways of “I’m from the government and I’m here to help!”

Folks, let’s be clear, call it what you want, but anytime you marry a limited ability to pay with an unlimited demand there will be rationing.  Some of it will be subtle i.e. long wait times, some not so subtle i.e. procedures denied.  The question is, would you rather deal with an employee of a health insurance company where you have legal and other options or would you rather deal with an employee of the DMV who tells you to shut up and sit down until it’s your turn?

Still not convinced?  Watch this video.  Pay particular attention to the question that they don’t think about:

H/T Dan McLaughlin

Do you suppose that proponents of Oregon’s government plan were telling opponents that a “death panel” was just an “extraordinary lie” as that bill was being debated?

“Is it cheaper to pay for someone to die than to help them live?”

This was the question that received the answer:

“That is not a question that we think about.”

Well of course it’s not!  At least not anymore than:

Is it cheaper and less inconvenient to murder this unborn child than to allow it life?”

Friday Hot Read part 2 – Maggie Thurber’s “Obama doesn’t get it – this isn’t a campaign anymore”

Maggie Thurber explains why the PermaCampaign that Obama is trying on health care is doomed to failure:

But that point aside, trying to convince people with the same ideology that you’re the best one of several to represent that ideology is much different from convincing an entire nation, the majority of whom claim no party or are Republicans, to join your cause.

Obama isn’t going to the opposing side and presenting his viewpoint on the issue, he’s handpicking audiences and ‘preaching to the choir’ and trying to re-energize his base. But that will only go so far as the vast majority of Americans are not in that group to begin with.

He’s still in campaign mode, trying to sell an idea, when the public would rather have the facts and the details – all the things they were too busy to bother with during the actual campaign. Now that Obama is in the White House, the public expects him to manage the operations, though he’s had absolutely no experience whatsoever in doing something even remotely similar. And now it shows, especially in how he blames everyone else for his failure in this regard.

As always, I highly recommend reading the entire thing.

The trend is not Obama’s friend

by @ 7:27. Filed under Politics - National.

Regular readers will know that Shoebox and I have been tracking Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, and that it has been not-so-good for Obama the last month. The Presidential Approval Index (those with strong opinions) has been negative since June 30, and most days since July 24, the overall approval rating has been negative.

Other pollsters are starting to notice this trend. Door #1 – Gallup. While they still show a positive job approval for Obama in their daily tracking poll (out of all adults, not just “likely voters” as Rasmussen polls), the spread has never been closer than the current 51% approve/42% disapprove.

Door #2 – Zogby Interactive (H/T – Allahpundit). I do have to caution that Zogby Interactive polls involve a pool of self-selected people, so I do not put a lot of stock in it. I also have to caution that Zogby has not yet released all the numbers itself; just the 45% approval among likely voters. However, Newsmax got a hold of the poll early, and again, the trend is not Obama’s friend: 50% disapproval, highest disapproval/lowest approval in the history of the Zogby Interactive polling, and a loss of independents (38% approve/59% disapprove).

Door #3 – The Washington Post/ABC News poll (H/T again – Hot Air Headlines). While Obama’s approval rating is still at 57% (versus a poll-high 40% disapproval), only 49% believe Obama will make the right decisions for the country, and 55% say the country is on the wrong track.

Friday Hot Read – Mary Katharine Ham’s “What To Do When Washington Gets All Wee-Weed Up?”

by @ 6:41. Filed under Politics - National.

There is a reason why the blogosphere loves MKH beyond her beauty – she is brilliant. She teed off on Obama’s use of “wee-wee”:

“There’s something about August going into September where everyone in Washington gets all ‘wee-weed’ up,” the president said.

Yes, wee-wee, the sneakiest fear-monger. Tinkle, the silent consensus-killer. There is some debate as to what the president meant, though it may have had something to do with Sarah Palin? I don’t know, everyone’s equally stumped….

You’re going to have to go to The Weekly Standard to get the upshot. Trust me on this one.

You really should be following her on Twitter as well. Her younger brothers may not be too happy, but if one can’t laugh at family, who can one laugh at?

August 20, 2009

2009 Wisconsin jobless claims blast past 2008 levels

by @ 11:57. Filed under Economy, Politics - Wisconsin.

With 4 1/2 months left in 2009, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the “over 753,000” jobless claims received by Department of Workforce Development exceeded the 738,352 jobless claims received in all of 2008.

Snap question – what are the two differences between 2008 and 2009? Hint; it is not a recession, as the article points out that it “started” in December 2007.

Hot Read Thursday – Doug Ross’s “Real Men of Congress”

by @ 6:31. Filed under Politics - National.

Remember Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” commercials? Doug Ross put together a version featuring Congressman John Murtha (D-PA), and you actually have your choice of places to look at it. Since Doug is part of Hot Air’s Greenroom, you can either look at it over at Doug Ross @ Journal or Hot Air Greenroom.

I can’t do this justice by excerpting, and I don’t feel like lifting the entire thing. So go, read.

Breakin’ Up Is Hard To Do

Quick, put together a list of famous duos. Here’s the one I just came up with:

Sonny and Cher
The Carpenters
Lewis and Martin
Abbott and Costello
Fred and Ginger
Bergen and McCarthy
Siskel and Ebert
Murphy and Duel

Odd thing about my list is that while they were all incredible talents when together, the individual performers never seemed to rise to the same level of fame and accomplishment once the duos broke up.  This is especially true in situations where one of the partners died like Siskel and Ebert or Murphy and Duel, andlet’s face it, Charlie McCarthy was never quite the same after Edgar Bergen’s death.

I’d like to add one more duo to the list of “great when together but awful separately;”  POTUS and TOTUS.

POTUS and TOTUS were one of the most amazing political duos ever.  Focused, eloquent and convincing are just some of the adjectives used to describe the performances of these two. 

Who can forget their performance in Germany where POTUS apologized for America saying:

I know my country has not perfected itself. At times, we’ve struggled to keep the promise of liberty and equality for all of our people. We’ve made our share of mistakes, and there are times when our actions around the world have not lived up to our best intentions.

Or the night POTUS won the Democrat nomination and in Minneapolis, TOTUS came up with this unforgettable line:

this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal…

Sadly, like several of my notable duos, the incredible talents of this duo ended with the death of one of the partners; TOTUS.  We now know that like Peter Duel, TOTUS led a troubled life and on July 13, 2009, chose to end it.

What caused TOTUS to end his life? 

Through June, POTUS’ strongly disapprove ratings had not moved above the low 30’s.  On July 2nd, the strongly disapprove rating hit 35% and has been moving up since then.

On June 28th, Rasmussen reported that Republicans had taken a lead, outside of the margin of error, in the generic poll for the first time in a few years.

These events made it clear to TOTUS that despite his best efforts, POTUS was a complete loser.  TOTUS understood that it was one thing to be performing together in the carefully crafted and controlled environments of campaigns.  However, it was now a completely different challenge to try to perform together in the rough and tumble world of actually governing.  No matter how good TOTUS was, no matter how well he did his job, he understood that POTUS wasn’t up to it and was going to hold him back.  Worse, while TOTUS was handling his end of the act flawlessly, POTUS was the one who got all the adulation.

The final straw for TOTUS came on July 12th.  This was the day that Rasmussen reported that the most important issue that POTUS and TOTUS campaigned for, health care reform, now had more Americans against it than supporting it.  Seeing that this was the beginning of the end and knowing that he wouldn’t be able to convince POTUS to resign, TOTUS did the honorable thing and threw himself from the stage.

Since the death of TOTUS, POTUS hasn’t been the same.  Several times last week, POTUS attempted to convince Americans that the government could run successful commercial operations by pointing to the continuing loses of the USPS!  Over the weekend, POTUS said he wasn’t for single payer before he said he was for single payer before he said he never said he was for single payer health care. 

Clearly, POTUS has loss his luster.  As his polls and those of his pet projects continue to sink, POTUS attempts to maintain his swagger as if he was still in the halcyon days working with TOTUS; but he’s not.

It was sad to watch Sonny attempt to perform without Cher.  It’s incredibly sad to watch Ebert become gloomier and reserve praise only for the most obscure of foreign films, without Siskel.  Likewise, it’s sad to watch POTUS attempt to carry on.

When Peter Duel died the producers of Alias Smith and Jones attempted to bring in Roger Davis to fill the role.  The show only lasted another 17 shows and most of its fans felt it was a painful 17 shows.  Perhaps POTUS could learn something from Roger Davis.

August 19, 2009

Social Security – worse than expected

(H/T – Amanda Carpenter)

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), the ranking memeber on the House Committee on Financial Services, did an interview with The Tuscaloosa News editorial board, and unleashed a shocker – Social Security could start running deficits before 2012, far earlier than the most-recent “Intermediate Case” estimate from the Social Security/Medicare Fund trustees of 2016 for the combined OASDI Social Security funds. Quoting Bachus:

The situation is much worse than people realize, especially because of the problems brought on by the recession, near depression….

What this recession has done to Social Security is pretty alarming. We’ve known for 15 years that we were going to have to make adjustments to Social Security, but we still thought that was seven or eight years down the road. But if things don’t improve very quickly, we’re going to be dealing with that problem before we know it.

Back in May, when the trustees issued their report, Ed Morrissey and I picked up on a disturbing trend – there were several months of the OASDI fund running a negative monthly balance, with a very slim 12-month (April 2008-March 2009) positive yearly balance. At the time, I said, “I might not bet on Social Security running red for a 12-month period this year, but I’ll take the ‘early’ in just about any pool.” Looks like the “early” will be paying out.

Revisions/extensions (9:06 pm 8/19/2009) – I just took a quick look at the April and May numbers (I’m wondering why June’s is not available; this time in May, March’s numbers were), and they’re not all that encouraging:

– April had a net positive inflow (less “net interest”, which really is a future tax increase) of just under $20.5 billion. That compares very unfavorably to April 2008, which had a net positive inflow of about $24.3 billion.

– May had a net negative inflow of $1.9 billion, compared to a net positive inflow of $3.1 billion in May 2008.

Taking out the bogus positive of December 2008, that’s 6 out of the last 10 months that had a net negative inflow.

Since I previously warned that looking month-to-month is not a particularily good indicator, let’s put that in terms of year-over-year. That puts the 12-month rolling net inflow, as of May 2009, at just $43.3 billion, $8.9 billion less than the same number just 2 months prior.

One more thing – going back to my May post, I discussed the stoichastic model first sleuthed out by Chuck Blahous. Using a 5,000-run model, the trustees found that half of the time, Social Security went into the red before the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, the 2011 time frame Bachus talked about to The Tuscaloosa News is within the 80%-confidence window of that model. Indeed, that window starts in 2010, and runs until 2017.

R&E part 2 (12:51 pm 8/20/2009) – Welcome to the craziest part of the extended Hot Air universe. If you didn’t read Ed’s current column at American Issues Project, I recommend you do so sometime today.

In the meantime, I encourage you to take a look around and enjoy the hospitality Shoebox and I (but mostly Shoebox) have to offer.

R&E part 3 (9:18 am 8/21/2009) – Welcome Doug Ross @ Journal readers. Again, I encourage you to take a look around and enjoy the hospitality Shoebox and I have to offer.

August 18, 2009

Physician, Heal Thyself!

by @ 16:23. Filed under Health Care Reform, Politics - National.

As the health care debate heats up, President Obama and other Democrats have identified a new villian; insurance companies.

At a press conference on July 22nd, President Obama said:

“You know, there had been reports just over the last couple of days of insurance companies making record profits. Right now, at the time when everybody’s getting hammered, they’re making record profits and premiums are going up.”

At the end of July, Nancy Pelosi identifiedthe new villains with:

“They are the villains. They have been part of the problem in a major way. They are doing everything in their power to stop a public option from happening.”

These comments coupled with a House plan that looks a lot like an expansion of Medicaid and Medicare to all, would cause one to think that we should have some empirical evidence that shows that a government run option is more cost effective.  One would think that with nearly 40 years of history, the fine government employees that provide oversight to Medicare and Medicaid, and would be dramatically expanded to support Obamacare, would have been able to squeeze every last penny of savings from the existing programs.  If so, wouldn’t we expect to see particularly Medicaid’s cost or rate of growth, to be lower than private insurance?

Yes we would but, no we don’t.

A study done by the Pacific Research Institute shows that rather than becoming more efficient than private insurance, Medicaid spending per person has outpaced private medical spending by 35% since 1970.  If that isn’t enough to question government efficiency, understand that this study understated total Medicaid costs and overstated private costs for the following reasons:

First, my analysis doesn’t adjust for cost-shifting from Medicaid to the Medicare prescription drug program. Medicaid used to cover many of the costs of drugs that have now been shifted to Medicare. As of 2005, just prior to the Medicare drug benefit’s full implementation, Medicaid’s per-patient costs had risen 53 percent (rather than 35 percent) more than per-patient NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

Second, my analysis counts the Medicare prescription drug program’s expenditures as part of privately purchased care, rather than as a part of Medicare.9 Because my analysis compares Medicaid’s costs to NHE apart from Medicaid and Medicare, this benefits Medicaid.

Third, it removes everyone on Medicaid or Medicare from the pool of patients receiving privately purchased care, even though a significant share of Medicaid patients’ care is covered not by Medicaid but privately — and even though, as of 2000, 32 percent of Medicare patients’ overall care (including
their Medicare copayments and Medigap insurance) was paid for privately.10 My methodology counts health care purchased privately by Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries among the costs of private care, without counting its recipients among the people receiving private care. If privately purchased health
care costs are divided by the whole U.S. population, rather than by the population not enrolled in Medicaid or Medicare, then Medicaid’s per-patient costs have increased 54 percent
more than per-patient NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

Fourth, it doesn’t adjust for any cost-shifting from Medicaid to the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). When SCHIP began in 1998, many Medicaid beneficiaries were shifted into that program. Over time, this has saved Medicaid billions without representing any actual improvement in cost containment. From 1970 to 1997, immediately prior to the start of SCHIP, Medicaid’s costs rose 81 percent more than NHE apart from Medicare and Medicaid.

President Obama and the Democrats claim that by implementing the government option they will be able to drive savings and reduce the overall cost of health care.  The fact is that if Medicaid and Medicare had been held to a rate of growth equal that of private insurance, last year alone these programs would have cost $201 billion less, nearly a 25% reduction of what was actually spent.

Before government takes over private insurance, under the argument of cost savings and efficiency, we would be wise to suggest the old adage:

Physician, heal thyself!

We’re Smarter Than You!

by @ 5:38. Filed under Politics - National.

It didn’t start with TARP.

It didn’t start with the Stimulus bill

It didn’t start with the budget that blew all previous budget deficits to shame

It didn’t start with Cap and Tax

It didn’t even start with health care reform.

No, the anger politicians in DC and elsewhere have been hearing in emails, phone calls and town halls has been growing for a while. 

The anger has not been caused by any one politician.  The anger hasn’t been caused by any one political party.  The anger hasn’t been caused by a certain president or control of Congress by one political party or the other.

The anger is not coming from a particular age group. The anger isn’t coming from a particular economic class.  The anger isn’t coming from those who voted for one particular political party or even from people with a common political perspective.

The anger politicians across America are hearing and seeing is because more and more Americans believe that the perspective of Representative Eric Massa (D-NY) is the perspective that most politicians have towards their constituents:

Read the transcript here.

Voters are upset, currently at the Democrats but it could just as easily swing towards Republicans, with politicians who believe that being a public servant means “I don’t care what you think is right.  I don’t care what the Constitution says.  I’m smarter than you.  You’re lucky to have me!”

Um, not so much.  And many of you “smart folks” are going to be joining the unemployment ranks at the next election.

August 17, 2009

Priebus calls Doyle out

by @ 14:00. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

How much do you want to bet that Gov. Jim Doyle doesn’t take RPW chair Reince Priebus up on his challenge issued in the following press release?

MADISON – Following Governor Doyle’s official announcement that he will not seek reelection in 2010, Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Reince Priebus issued the following statement:

“Governor Doyle’s decision not to seek a third term can be attributed to many factors, but self-imposed term limits isn’t one of them.

Low approval ratings and a budget mess to clean up, on top of embarrassing stories such as an illegal legal counsel and a no-bid train contract likely helped convince Governor Doyle that Wisconsin voters have had enough of his failed policies.

If Governor Doyle really believed that all governors should be limited to two terms in office, then why was he raising campaign cash during the past two years? In his press conference this morning, he mentioned he and Jessica believed he would be a two-term governor. In that case, Governor Doyle should donate all of the campaign money he’s raised during his second term to charity, and I am calling on him to do just that.”

Lawton in, Ryan out, Kind unknown

by @ 12:28. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

That was fast – the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton will throw her hat into the Democratic gubernatorial primary, while Rep. Paul Ryan will not throw his hat into the Republican gubernatorial primary.

I don’t buy this statement from Lawton’s camp for a second considering the news came out less than 1 1/2 hours after Gov. Jim Doyle announced he would not seek a third term – “Today is Gov. Doyle’s day and the lieutenant governor wishes him well.” I would think that one would at least let the fireball start contracting before announcing, “The lieutenant governor intends to run for governor and she will have more to say about that in the near future.” Then again, there is no love lost between Doyle and Lawton.

Meanwhile, Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) was more succinct in his statement – “Since Governor Doyle’s decision has become public, people from around the state have contacted me and urged me to run for Governor. I thank them for their support and I am considering it. In the weeks to come I will make my decision.”

As expected (and frankly, predicted by me this morning), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) issued a statement saying that he had no interest in running for governor in 2010. That tracks with the last question I asked him at the state GOP convention regarding a possible Senate run; he’s just too happy in the House right now.

One noted BS’er congratulates another noted BS’er

My thanks to WTMJ-AM for posting the following statement from President Barack Obama issued in the wake of Gov. Jim Doyle’s non-reelection announcement:

Jim Doyle is a true friend and a tireless public servant. From the Peace Corps to Attorney General and then as Governor, he has demonstrated a commitment to helping those in need and a passion for fighting for what’s right. His tough and fair leadership enabled him to work across the aisle to strengthen education and spur economic recovery.

Jim’s unwavering dedication and his love for Wisconsin are evident in his 25 years of dedicated service to the state and the people of Wisconsin are lucky to have him as governor.

Doyle was mercurial and unwilling to reach across party lines, and we were very unlucky to have been stuck with him.

New NRE poll – When will Doyle depart the governor’s office?

by @ 11:54. Filed under NRE Polls, Politics - Wisconsin.

Now that the non-candidacy of Gov. Jim Doyle is (all-but-)official (pending just a statement of non-candidacy filed with the Government Accountability Board), it’s time to ask when he will actually give up the office. Somehow, I doubt that he will stick around all the way until 1/3/2011, when the term is actually up.

When will Jim Doyle depart the governor's mansion for the last time?

Up to 1 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • 1/3/2011 (the day the term expires) (66%, 21 Vote(s))
  • After the 2010 primary election but before the 2010 general election (11/2/2010) (16%, 5 Vote(s))
  • Before the 2010 primary election (9/14/2010) (13%, 4 Vote(s))
  • After the 2010 general election but before 1/3/2011 (the day the term expires) (6%, 2 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 32

Loading ... Loading ...

Monday hot read part 2 – the MacIver Institute’s “MacIver Poll Gave Wisconsin Governor Road Map to Prevent His Political Demise”

by @ 8:35. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

File this dispatch from the MacIver Institute under T for “Told you so!” The takeaway:

Polling done by others showed Governor Doyle’s approval and re-elect numbers plummeted lower and lower each month after his Budget address in February. Our poll showed him with a lead over both of his prospective GOP challengers this spring, but foretold what would would happen if the Governor chose spending and taxing over belt tightening.

With the predicted Wisconsin voter reaction now a reality, Governor Doyle is poised to bow out, rather than face their wrath at the polls.

As our polling showed, it didn’t have to come to this.

The question now is: Will other elected officials in Madison learn from his mistakes?

They also throw in a flashback to the final state budget that ought to scare the bejeebers out of the rest of the field as well – $12.1 billion of bad ($3.63 billion of new spending, $2.05 billion in new taxes, $3.58 billion of borrowing, $1.50 billion in allowable local property tax hikes, and $2.05 billion in structural deficit). While it most-affects Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton and the Legislative prospective candidates, it also doesn’t bode well for noted fee-hiker Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett or noted federal tax-hiker Ron Kind.

Doyle’s self-dumping hits the WaPo

by @ 8:17. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

While I don’t keep up with much from the Washington Post, I do follow Chris Cillizza’s The Fix. He picked up on the news from the Politico over the weekend, and I do have to give a couple of commenters a inside-the-cheese perspective. Since I’m not about to register to comment over there, I have to do it here.

For mark_in_austin, who wonders how Kathleen Falk could be considered a serious contender, I first recommend this morning’s hot read from Christian Schneider. I further point out that she has failed in two of three statewide elections – the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary and the 2006 AG general election (she did, however, knock off a scandal-ridden incumbent who dared to push just a little bit into the shady dealings of Doyle). The second loss is the only statewide/Congressional office that flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans in the 2006 election cycle.

For JayPen, who wonders what will happen to Doyle’s $2 million war chest, it will most-likely be wound down slowly. If I’m reading the appropriate statutes right (Chapter 11), a bit over $40,000 per cycle can go to an individual gubernatorial campaign, with lesser amounts going to lower statewide and local campaigns. The moneys could also be returned to the donors, or donated to a charitable organization or the common school fund.

Monday hot read (and blatant rip-off of Charlie) – Christian Schneider’s “Who Got the Gravy?”

by @ 7:27. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – The blatantly-ripped-off Charlie Sykes)

Christian Schneider, one of the true professional political handicappers, handicaps the race to replace Gov. Jim Doyle on the Democratic side of the ticket. He introduces a new name to the mix; Senate Democratic Leader Russ Decker:

Through the miracle of modern technology, I was able to actually record Russ Decker’s brain waves regarding his decision on whether to run for Governor:

“So I’ve been busting my tail for the people in the state senate for 20 years, and some kook like Barb Lawton is actually mentioned as a more viable candidate for governor than I am? I’m the freaking Senate Majority Leader for Christ’s sake! I’m the second most important Democrat in state government – and as much as I’d love to run for Dave Obey’s congressional seat when he retires, everyone knows that bearded skeleton is only leaving Congress feet first. He’ll probably serve until he’s 132.

But what if people start figuring out that my fingerprints are all over this most recent disastrous budget? Aren’t I culpable for the huge tax increases and future deficits this budget creates? Are voters really going to elect someone that’s saddled with all the same baggage that Jim Doyle carries around?

And how is it that Pizza Hut keeps coming up with new pizzas to sell us as ‘specials,’ when they’re all essentially the same ingredients?”

(Sorry, I didn’t turn off the thought transcriber machine in time.)

Verdict:

RUSS DECKER GOT MORE GRAVY THAN PEOPLE THINK

Bonus coverage from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel includes news that I’ve been fearing; the Thompson gang,
including Tommy himself and former aide Bill McCoshen, are taking a second look at running for governor. Further, they speculate with no comment from the respective campaigns that Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) would jump in. While Van Hollen might try to prove that A.G. stands for “Aspiring to be Governor”, I strongly doubt that Ryan would bolt from the House.

They also have a run-down on available money for the various Democratic challengers:

  • Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett – $840,257 (the biggest available Democratic warchest)
  • Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) – $43,128 of $955,512 legally available
  • State Sen. Jon Erpenbach (D-Waunakee) – $21,000
  • Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk – $17,000

But, Of Course It Is

Early last year as the endorsement battle was fully engaged, videos and quotes of Obama’s long time pastor, Jeremiah Wright, came to light.  These videos and quotes showed the man that Obama referred to as his “mentor,” was a racist and anti-Semite.  Although he had spent the bulk of his adult life in Wright’s congregation, Obama denied that he knew of Wright’s heinous perspectives.  When challenged about Wright, Obama responded:

He does not speak for me.

In other words, Obama and the compliant media which echoed his defense, were telling us that this was a problem entirely with Wright, or as Obama might say “This isn’t about me!”  Those of us who had our own ability to think knew that the opposite was true, it was entirely about Obama and his acceptance of Wright’s ideology.

After the Saddleback Forum last August in which he denounced late term abortions, an audio tape surfaced of Obama arguing against an Illinois statue that would require medical support for babies that survived botched abortions.  In his attempt to reconcile his recently stated position with the past recordings, Obama tried multiple explanations.  All of the explanations were focused on issues that other people had created.  None of the explanations had anything to do with Obama changing his position, misunderstanding the issue or lying.  In other words, Obama could have said, “This isn’t about me!”  Again, a reasonably inquisitive mind was able to see that the excuses Obama rasied were red herrings and that in fact, the issue was all about Obama.

If you do a Google search of “Obama “not about me”” you’ll find numerous instances in stump speeches, his world reunification speech in Germany and even his endorsement acceptance speech where Obama told people that his candidacy was “not about me.”

During his last prime time media love fest, President Obama refuted that health care reform was a personal issue for him saying:

This isn’t about me!

In fact, you might say that Obama’s entire national political career has been spent with him telling people “this isn’t about me!

Since that last statement, President Obama has inserted himself directly and personally into the debate over health care reform.  At town hall meetings in New Hampshire, Montana and now Colorado, President Obama has personally defended health care reform.  At each stop he couriously debates and defends what is or isn’t in “the plan.”  Curious because President Obama doesn’t have a plan of his own and repeatedly responds to the few challenging questions by avoiding an answer or by making erroneous assertions about what the House plan contains.  Even the USAToday, a paper that is not considered unfriendly to Obama, identified numerous Obama falsehoods following the New Hampshire townhall.  Many of these falsehoods were repeated in Montana. 

What are the results?  In the month since he claimed it wasn’t about him, Obama’s dream of a government take over of health care has been met with stiff resistance.  Since Obama’s personal involvement, Rasumussen Reports polling shows that support for health reform has fallen 5% and those who disapprove of health care reform now represent a majority.  In a new poll by Rasmussen, 54% of voters now believe that doing nothing would be better than implementing the plan that is coming through the House.  This is especially important as independents favor doing nothing by almost a 3 to 1 margin.

Contrary to his protests, the health care debate is all about President Obama. 

Obama came into office on the sweet spot of a wave.  Iraq, a sagging economy and a Republican party that operated largely indistinguishably from the Democrats, gave Obama a populace that wanted change so badly they were willing to give an inexperienced, opportunistic, job hopper a chance to play president.  In fact, change was desired so badly that neither the media or those who supported Obama, stopped to ask much about the details as to what Obama wanted to change.  If they had, they would have found that from the start Obama was focused on the takeover of the health care industry via a single payer system and the takeover of energy via cap and trade.  These two items were/are cornerstone to the transformation of America that he envisions and promised.

After moving through the House with relative ease, Cap and Trade is sitting in the Senate.  60 votes are required to move the Cap and Trade bill through the Senate.  With Kennedy and Byrd rarely in the Senate due to their illnesses, the Democrats would need to get 2 Republicans to side with them if they can get the other 58 Democrats to support the bill.  That is a big IF, and moving towards “not likely,” as the economy continues to struggle, the economic reality of the bill continues to sink in and global warming “science” is finding less and less support amongst voters.  In fact, Cap and Trade has lost so much momentum that even Democrat Senators are now saying that it won’t receive a hearing until next year….if at all.

Having Cap and Trade in limbo is good and bad.  It’s good because passage of the legislation would be disastrous for the US economy.  It’s bad because as one of Obama’s two major pieces of legislation, having it in danger of dying puts more pressure on the issue of health care reform.  As the only other major legislation, if health care reform fails it will relegate the man once held in messianic admiration to that of purveyor of just another mystic religion that serves no purpose other than to provide emotional highs with no ability to resolve anything.  It is this fear that has Obama personally engaged in the health care debate.

President Obama’s personal insertion to the middle of the health care debate is much like Kevin Bacon’s appearance towards the end of Animal House.  Standing in the middle of the melee and shouting “All is well.  All is well,” didn’t calm the public for Kevin nor will it for Obama.  In both instances the acts were those of desperation.  As it didn’t work for Bacon, neither will it for Obama.

With President Obama fighting to find new scapegoats to blame and allies for support, the path and outcome of the health care reform debate is far from certain.  That said, one thing is certain.  The next time you hear Obama, discussing any topic, say “This isn’t about me,” you will know without a doubt that after sifting through all of the obfuscation and half truths, the one thing in fact it is about is Obama!

August 16, 2009

More on Doyle’s election departure

by @ 7:51. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

In case you’ve been in a cave all weekend, Gov. Jim Doyle shocked the part of the world that follows Wisconsin politics by letting slip the news that he would not be running for re-election. After getting scooped, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel popped in with a few more details:

  • The official announcement will come on Monday.
  • An unnamed senior Democrat legislator said that Doyle came to this decision recently, and also noted the effect the tea parties and townhall meetings have had.

Meanwhile, the right side of Wisconsin politics hasn’t been silent:

  • Milwaukee County Executive and candidate for governor Scott Walker said, “It would be the right decision for the governor and in the best interest of Wisconsin taxpayers.”
  • Former Congressman and candidate for governor Mark Neumann called it “a game changer”
  • The Recall Doyle folks are claiming victory, with their first mission of getting Doyle out now all-but-officially accomplished.
  • Former state Senator Cathy Stepp calls it a train derailed. She also speculates that the eventual Democratic nominee will be Rep. Ron Kind (La Crosse).
  • James Wigderson interrupted his summer vacation to ask whether DPW chair Mike Tate is the least-qualified state party chair being asked to defend an open gubernatorial seat, and douse some more water on supporters of Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton.
  • Mary at Freedom Eden broke out the lame-duck call.
  • The Recess Supervisor notes that lame ducks can be the most-dangerous kind, and also notes the day prior how Doyle governed like Governor Doesntgiveashit. In the comments of the first linked item, he handicaps the races.
  • Lance Burri calls it a mixed bag.

So, the $16 million question is, “What now?” On the Democratic side, a lot depends on whether Doyle stays in Wisconsin until September 2010. In one of his updates, Kevin Binversie picked up on a WisPolitics item that Doyle does plan on sticking around. That would essentially eliminate any “incumbency” factor for Lawton, who Doyle reportedly doesn’t exactly like. It would also leave the primary wide open, though I note that Democrats aren’t exactly shy about throwing out extraordinarily-weak incumbents in the primary (see Peg Lautenschlager).

Continuing with the Lawton thoughts, whether or not she is governor after an early Doyle departure, she would be tied to a very-unpopular administration. She also is extremely liberal, which explains why she won WisPolitics’ straw poll of who the attendees at the Democratic convention would like to see run if Doyle did not. Further, “acting” governors don’t exactly do well in their “affirmation” elections (ask Scott McCallum).

I honestly don’t know much about Rep. Kind, but he’s been trying to position himself as a “moderate”. If memory serves, a while back Recess Supervisor noted that besides appearing moderate, he is very telegenic and well-spoken. There are a couple of negatives, one paradoxically introduced by Doyle and his hacks on the former State Elections Board. First, he does have a rather extensive federal record. Second, that federal campaign war chest, if the Mark Green example isn’t “conveniently” ignored by the 100% Doyle-handpicked Government Accountability Board, can’t exactly be used.

The third big name is Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. He failed in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in Milwaukee. Beyond that, there’s state Senator Jon Erpenbach, Dane County executive and multiple-time statewide loser Kathleen Falk, and a thin bench.

On the Republican side, that news throws out the emerging plan by both Walker and Neumann to focus almost all their energy on Doyle. It does, however, also eliminate someone who was able to turn a similar situation at this point in 2005 into a successful re-election bid, as well as someone who had $2 million already salted away into the campaign war-chest. Speaking of money, since it is expected that the Democrats would also have a hotly-contested primary, the money race will essentially reset after the primaries.

Unlike Recess Supervisor, I do expect more high-profile names, especially outside the Milwaukee area, to throw their hats in the ring. Neumann has far more in common with Walker than he does with the prototypical outstate moderate Republican.

August 15, 2009

Breaking hard – Doyle to not run for re-election

by @ 13:33. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

(H/T – Kevin Binversie – Twitter/blog)

I hate to run away from a good breakout session at RightOnline, but something HUGE popped up back at home. Politico is reporting that Jim Doyle will not be running for re-election in 2010. Jonathan Martin believes that Doyle is still in line for an early exit courtesy an Obama appointment, which would make Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton the de-facto incumbent. Others in the Cheddarsphere, like Josh Schroeder and the Recess Supervisor, think that Congressman Ron Kind would be the front-runner.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled weekend.

Revisions/extensions (4:55 pm 8/15/2009) – I briefly spoke with The Wall Street Journal’s John Fund regarding this, and he had a couple of observations:

– Doyle’s exit would make things a bit harder for the Republicans as they wouldn’t be able to run against him.

– As for the timing, it makes sense to do it now rather than in, say, May 2010 (the filing period is July), because it would give the Dems a bit of time to actually recover.

I also added a link to Kevin’s blog post in addition to his Tweet. It is interesting that he really scooped everybody back in Wisconsin.

I’ll have more thoughts either tomorrow or Monday.

August 14, 2009

Stuck-at-the-airport hot read – Ed Morrissey’s “Rights and Wrongs”

Yes, I missed the morning flight through piss-poor planning and preparation, which always results in piss-poor performance. However, that means I get to read Ed Morrissey’s latest column for American Issues Project, a historical look at why health care is not a “right”:

Rights cannot be confiscatory in a society that respects the individual right to property. That’s why none of the enumerated rights in the Constitution involve confiscation. Americans have the right to free speech, but they do not have the right to demand publication in a newspaper, nor do they have the right to demand that other people listen when they speak. The right to free expression of religion does not involve occupying someone else’s church and using it to your own ends. You have the right to keep and bear arms, but you do not have the right to demand free or publicly financed weaponry. All of those examples involve confiscating someone else’s property or services, whether done through the government or by force individually.

That brings us to the notion of the “right” to health care. As human beings, we want to see people succeed to the point where they can feed, clothe, and care for themselves independently, as that establishes true personal freedom. However, none of us have the right to confiscate the services of a doctor or nurse without their consent, and without their ability to set a price for their time and expertise. We don’t have the right to walk into a grocery story to demand apples when we’re hungry, either, although we should have access to the market without bias when we can properly compensate its owner for the goods.

I can’t put it any better.

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